Buying A Race Horse

Another strange day at Ocala. No works of 9.4 today, but a huge number of 10.0’s. Maybe the surface is unchanged, but the jockeys are getting bigger head starts.

A Cupid was one of the 20.2 bullets today.

I may need to take a harder look at the 10.2’s, or maybe the 21.3’s

The TDN article has a better explanation of why the distribution of works seems to have changed.

At least one major consigner said he is choosing to work 1f instead of 2f because many buyers are more focused on “run out” times. Run out time are the privately clocked times for the horses as they pass the finish line and run the clubhouse turn.

The number of 2f works did fall from 33 the first day to just 24 the third day. That could explain why we saw more 10.0 works on day 3.

It is bad enough that time are not reported in decimals, i.e. 10. 17 is called as 10.0. Now large buyers are using non-public times to gain an edge.

It make the little guy less likely to participate in the sale, and it also pushes the horses to due essential 4 to 5 furlongs works at a very young age.

Let’s look at the horse with the fastest work on the first day of the under tack show and see what we can learn.

This is hip #107. The work was 20.3 for 2 furlongs.

I would guess the horse will sell for at least $250,000, but most likely $500,000 or more. The pinhooker paid $50,000 at the Keeneland yearling sale last September. The pinhooker is an entity called J.C.M. that bought 11 horses at the sale. JCM paid $500,000 for an Into Mischief filly, and an average of $200,000 for 9 others. JCM consigned the horse to the Eddie Woods training center which is maybe the largest operation in Ocala.

Go to the following link for OBS Sales and scroll down to hip #107:

https://www.obssales.com/aprpreview/2021/

There you can see a photo, walking video, a workout video, and by clicking on the hip # you will get the pedigree.

This is a beautiful horse. Every reader should take the time to look at these videos. This is what a fast horse looks like. In a TDN article Woods calls the horse “long” and a “big beautiful filly”.

The sire is Violence. In some ways Violence is the perfect “modern” sire. He is a son of Medaglia d’ Oro who won the Travers at 3, and the Don Handicap at 5, so the stamina credentials are there. But Violence’s mare brings Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat to the pedigree, so Violence is also precocious.

So far Violence’s two best offspring are No Parole and Volatile. Neither has been successful at two turns, but most don’t care. They want speed and precocity, almost at any cost. In many ways Violence is the exactly the perfect Cox/Crow sire.

A Brad Cox/Liz Crow sire is a miler with speed, that with good training can be stretched out to a classic distance. This refers to an a interview both did for Ten Strike. They both stated their biggest mistakes were choosing horses without enough early speed. If speed is what you want, Violence is one of your favorite sires.

Violence is also a mid-priced sire. He stands for $25,000, much less than his father who costs $150,000. There are many $10,000 sires to choose from, so the $25,000 fee is a nice mid-range price.

The mare, Royale Paradise, never raced. She was RNAed for $70,000 as a yearling after being bred by Stonestreet. RP was the daughter of Unbridled Song. RP’s mom was G2 winning daughter of Elusive Quality. She won $230,000 and was nice horse. She also produced two solid $150,000 winners. Her extended family was solid but not spectacular.

RP was born in 2011 and had her first foal was born in 2015. That horse (also a son of Violence named, Metric System) was sold for $90,000 at Keeneland, but ran 3 horrible races at Mahoning and Turf Paradise. The second foal (Bano Solo, a son of Goldencents) was better. He sold for $110,000 as a yearling, and then $400,000 as a 2 year old at the Ocala March sale. BS broke his maiden in impressive fashion at Churchill in June and then finished 4th in the Sanford Stakes opening weekend at Saratoga. Two years later he was running in $15,000 claimers at Lone Star. BS made $120,000 in his 17 race career.

It is not clear what happened to the 2017 and 2018 foals. The pedigree page says one was a winner, but Equibase does not have that record.

In many ways this is the perfect “empty mare”.

Royale Paradise was well bred, (Unbridled Song out of a G2 stakes winning mare), but she never raced. RP produced a fast and precocious runner that was 2nd choice in a Saratoga 2 year stakes race (the gold standard of many owners). None of RP’s first 5 babies was really successful, but several sold well, and one was really fast and precocious.

Hip #107 was a pinhooker’s dream. Not enough pedigree to get anyone excited at the yearling sale, but just enough hints to suggest that she might run fast in an April breeze show.

This is exactly the type of horse I do not want to buy, but someone will pay $500,000. She is impressive to look at, but my goal is to find a horse that will look like that 6 months later.

The times were a little faster on day 2 of the Ocala sale. There were 5 works of 9.4, compared to none yesterday. There were also only 13 works of 10.3 compared to 24 yesterday.

There had been a big storm on Saturday night which, postponed the first day of works until Monday. Usually that extra water might make the track play a drying out “wet fast”, but instead the surface was called “soupy” in the press. It is most likely best to not compare works between the two days. Let’s see what happens the rest of the week.

It was also interesting to note how all the good works were early in the day. There was not even a single 10.0 after the second break. They work in groups of about 60 horses. It might be best to avoid horses that work later. I wish I understood better how slots are given out.

It was a tough day to combine sires I like, with stamina mares I like, and then have the horse work the “right” time. I only have 3 horses to add to my list, and mostly to the bottom.

1. #403 – c – Point of Entry – Wild Silk by Street Sense – mare was Godolphin horse that never ran, but was well bred. The 2nd dam is by AP Indy, and produced a G1 winner. Work was an above average 21.1. The 3rd dam produced Fed Biz. Maybe willing to go over $50,000
2. #256 – f – Noble Mission – Style Show by Red Ransom – NM has been a failure, and is now in Japan, but I have some interest. Work was an ok 10.1. Love the Red Ransom and Manila on the dam side. 5/1 foal. NM is a son of Galileo. The mare has only produced one good horse in 5 tries. Marginal, don’t want to pay more than $25,000.
3. #273 – c – Midnight Storm – Suzee Sunrise by Chester House. worked 10.1 This is a classic case of a mare that was bred to run long, but became only a turf sprinter. The one decent foal was a stakes placed miler. This is a marginal and experimental idea, but not without merit. Already named Star Shopping

Maybe I should be more interested in the 10.2’s, if I really like the sire or the mare, but I need to stay consistent.

One of my Cairo Prince’s worked a 9.4, and will be too expensive.

Several idea were withdrawn, or worked too slow to be considered.

I will use this post to build my list after each day’s works.

1. #882 – f – Mr. Speaker – Happiness Is by Dynaformer – 4/8, very solid mare, C+ nick, learned about this sire at Lone Star, might run 2 miles, worked 10.1, not sold as a yearling
2. #88 – c – Air Force Blue – Rendezvous Point by Kingmambo – A+ nick, great distance pedigree. I am almost ready to give up on AFB, but Eclipse did pay $250,000 for one last fall. Worked 21.2 One foal from the mare became a 2 mile+ hurdle horse. Not sold as a yearling.
3. #466 – c – Honor Code – Anabaa’s Creation by Anabaa – Strange experimental mix of Honor Code and a Euro long distance mare. High risk, D nick. Worked a better than average 10.1 I love the sire, I love the pedigree of the mare, but she has been a poor producer. A little worried the seller might choose to race him if we do not overpay. Very tricky call.
4. #1069 – Honor Code – Maracuya by Big Brown – dam ran in the G2 Black Eyed Susan, and has produced 3 winners of $60,000 in her first 3 foals, 2nd dam produced a winner of the Black Eyed Susan, F nick, not thrilled with Big Brown as damsire, but everything else is good, $24,000 RNA as a yearling
5. #646 – f – Hard Spun – Colina Verde by Know Heights (1 1/2 winner) – A++ nick, strange Brazilian mare with stamina credentials, $30,000 yearling, 4/26 foal, worked 10.2 on a slow day
6. #29 – f – Exaggerator – Polly Alexander by Foxhound – lots of Euro pedigree, A++ nick, classic plodder/plodder. I am not thrilled that a son of Exaggerator is near the top of my list again. I need the price to be right. The work was 10.1 $67,000 yearling RNA
7. #778 – c – Mr. Speaker – Eye Candy Annie by Candy Ride – A nick, mare a solid runner and producer, work was 10.3, but had trouble at the start, the sire won going 1 1/4 on the turf, and is new favorite, already named Duke Skywalker
8. #846 – c – Astern – Gigahertz by Dynaformer – 5/3 foal, the magic of Dynaformer, Pivotal, and Rahy, worked 21.3, B nick, not the best mare
9. #993 – f – Unified – Lady Solvig by Giant’s Causeway – 5/2 foal, 10.1 work, big 2nd dam, C nick
10. #869 – f – Connect – Grand Style by Giant’s Causeway – solid mare and a Thunder Gulch 2nd dam, worked 10.1
11. #1215 – c – American Freedom – Our Pure Creation by Pure Prize – D nick, solid mare, 10.1 work, 4/5 foal, boring, last horse in the sale, mom was a sprinter bred to run longer
12. #52 – f – American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado. Mom was not much, but very well bred. 2nd dam placed in a G1 routing. A nick. The magic of El Prado. $15,000 yearling. Worked a marginal 10.2 On the borderline, but still worth considering
13. #403 – c – Point of Entry – Wild Silk by Street Sense – mare was Godolphin horse that never ran, but was well bred. The 2nd dam is by AP Indy, and produced a G1 winner. Work was an above average 21.1. The 3rd dam produced Fed Biz. Maybe willing to go over $50,000
14. #364 – f – Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok – Mom was a decent turf router, and has produced decent turf routers, A++ nick, $47,000 yearling, 4/16 foal, maybe a decent turf horse?, worked an ok 10.1
15. #1005 – c – Liam’s Map – Lemon Drop Dolly by LDK – solid 2nd dam, worked 10.2, maybe this is an affordable LM, D nick, 3/7 foal, $40,000 yearling
16. #1020 – c – Mastery – Limonar by Street Cry – solid mare, runner and producer, worked 10.2, maybe a cheap Mastery
17. #1041 – f – Hard Spun – f – Love Train by Tapit – mare solid allowance miler, 10.2 work, 5/13 foal
18. #989 – f – Gormley – Lady Dora by Lord at War – Mom was G2 winner going long. 2nd dam was a $600,000 winner. B nick. 3/16 foal. Gormley with some stamina added. $14,000 RNA as a yearling. worked 10.2, I wish this had been 10.1, but at least marginal
19. #167 – f – Keen Ice – Shesastonecoldfox by Foxhound – low risk mare?? worked 21.3 NY-bred, very marginal but very low risk. Mare a solid runner and producer. A++ nick, not sold as a yearling
20. #31 – f – Violence – Poly One Flex by Giant’s Causeway – Big looking filly, worked a marginal 10.2, only a $22,000 yearling, interesting pedigree, strong Lyphard family, kind of an empty mare horse
21. #256 – f – Noble Mission – Style Show by Red Ransom – NM has been a failure, and is now in Japan, but I have some interest. Work was an ok 10.1. Love the Red Ransom and Manila on the dam side. 5/1 foal. NM is a son of Galileo. The mare has only produced one good horse in 5 tries. Marginal, don’t want to pay more than $25,000.
22. #273 – c – Midnight Storm – Suzee Sunrise by Chester House. worked 10.1 This is a classic case of a mare that was bred to run long, but became only a turf sprinter. The one decent foal was a stakes placed miler. This is a marginal and experimental idea, but not without merit. Already named Star Shopping. $55,000 RNA as a yearling?
23. #769 – Flintshire – Everdeen by Lemon Drop Kid – Flintshire has been a disaster, but maybe over-hated?, A nick, mare was a 90,000 yearling
24. #348 – f – Tapiture – Tu Tu Larue by Theatrical – A nick, not sure about Tapiture as a turf sire, but not impossible., Worked 10.1, RNA $20,000 as a yearling, boring
25. #629 – c – Unified – Citizen by Day by Proud Citizen – C nick, mare bred by Team Valor, worked 21.3 on slow day, 3rd dam finished 2nd in the BC Juvenile
26. #671 – f – Tonalist – Court Appeal by Candy Ride – B+ nick, mare only ran twice, but did win in a nice time fig for Farish and Sheriffs, produced a $200,000 winner with her 2nd foal, worked 10.2 on a slow day
27. #1006 – c – Mohaymen – Lemon Frosted by Lemon Drop Kid – 2nd dam be Pure Prize, worked 10.1 on a slow day
28. #477 – c – Shaman Ghost – Apology Accepted by Candy Ride – worked an amazing 10.0, I might be the only person that likes Shaman Ghost. Maybe if there are 100, 9.4’s and 10.0’s, he could be overlooked, but I doubt it. Willing to pay 10x???. Only a $15,000 yearling.
29. #750 – f – Wicked Strong – Empressive Lady by Empire Maker – very solid mare and 2nd dam, A nick, work was too fast 10.0 on slow day, but maybe they hate WS, another Brooklyn Strong?
30. #899 – f – Practical Joke – Hello Maggie May by Lemon Drop Kid – worked 21.2, My favorite PJ with a LDK mare, $110,000 yearling
31. #1009 – c – Practical Joke – Leo’s Pegasus by Fusaichi Pegasus – 4/6 foal, A nick, $75,000 yearling, worked 21.0
32. #291 – Classic Empire – Tango Time, worked 21.0
33. #1215 – American Freedom – Our Pure Creation by Pure Prize – worked 10.1, reasonable idea
34. #144 – f – Liam’s Map – Selective by Tapit – 4/15 foal, a very conventional LM that will most likely be too expensive. Worked 10.1 With the Tapit mare I think she will be unaffordable, but you never know. $90,000 yearling.
35. #559 – f – Twirling Candy – Breaking Promises by Broken Vow – A++ nick. The work was a too fast 21.0. This horse will be too expensive, but let’s write it down just for fun. willing to pay 4x the stud fee of $40,000. Not sold as a yearling.
36. #187 – c – Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado – Mom ran a 94 sprinting on the turf, but was bred to go longer. 2nd dam a solid horse by Red Ransom. A+ nick. 5/25 foal. Believe in the magic of El Prado. $57,000 yearling. worked 10. 0, will be too expensive
37. #175 – c – Dialed In – Shine Softly by Aldebaran – Mom ran a solid 94 Equibase fig going 1 1/16 on the turf, and was also a solid producer. The 2nd dam was a multiple G1 winner going long. The nick is A. 4/4 foal. A model horse. $50,000 yearling, worked 10.0 could be too expensive
38. #239 – Frosted – from here down are10.2 works that might be reasonable $25,000 horses
39. #243
40. #269
41. #366 – Klimt
42. #536 – Unified
43. #571 – Unified
44. #854 – Twirling Candy
45. #936 – Gormley
46. 1100 – Astern
47. #1143 – Bayern
48. #1154 – Honor Code
49. #1162 – Cupid
50. #338 – Midnight Storm – 21.3 work
51. #721 – Union Rags

I want my horses “just right” Not “too fast”, not “too slow”, but just right.

Today was the first day of the Ocala under tack show. I was interested in 16 horses. 5 were so slow they did not bother to work, 3 worked too slow, 2 worked too fast, 3 were just right, and 3 were marginal.

The times were slower than last year (the sale was 2 months later), but also slower than 2019.

1. 10.0 works – 13 – “too fast”
2. 10.1 works – 36 – “just right”
3. 10.2 works – 34 – marginal
4. 10.3 works – 24 – “too slow”
5. 11.0 works – 13 – really bad

1. 21.0 works – 6 – “too fast”
2. 21.1 works – 3 – just right
3. 21.2 works – 7 – just right
4. 21.3 works – 3 – marginal
5. 21.4 and slow – 10 – too slow

There were no 9.4’s today, but there were 20 for the whole sale in 2019.

My favorite horse in the sale (#175) worked a too fast 10.0, that plus a Dialed In winning the Arkansas Derby will put his price well over $300,000 I would guess.

My 5th favorite horse (#187), a son of Cupid, also worked a $10.0 bullet. Maybe he will only sell for $200,000, but that is too rich for me. That makes me severely depressed, but I have no plans to rob a bank (do banks even have money any more).

Maybe these horse would have been affordable if they had worked 10.1, but not now.

That leaves me with 3-4 horses to consider. I think I will start the list is a separate post.

1. Drop Anchor – Anchor Down – Black Coronas by Curlin – McPeek
2. Reserve – Tiznow – Abtassaama – by Distorted Humor – Moquett
3. Time is Yours – Not This Time- Belle’s Finale by Ghostzapper – Kelly Von Hemel
4. Bullseye Beauty – Dialed In – Figure of Beauty by Street Cry – McKeever

We add a new horse to the interesting list. This is a daughter of Dialed In trying the turf for the first time, at Keeneland, against a tough group, she also draws a poor post #12. She won first time out with only a 72 Beyer at Turfway. There is some turf pedigree in the 2nd dam, but dirt makes more sense. Let’s see if she can beat half the field today. She is owned by L. Neil Jones, who RNAed her for $47,000 at Keeneland last fall.

Interesting horses #2 and #3 will duel tomorrow in a mile race after the Arkansas Derby. Should be able to get maybe 10-1 on both.

Bullseye Beauty went straight to the lead and almost won her race at Keeneland. She finished a good second at 20-1. Let’s see how her career develops.

Only four days after the Lone Star sale, the under tack show for the Ocala sale begins. They will work about 175 horses per day for the next 7 days.

The strategy will remain the same. Let’s find horses with some stamina is their pedigrees that still have an average work (what I would call a better than expected work).

I went through the catalog once when it first came out and came up with a top 20 list. I am going through a second time and will build my list here. In very broad terms if I have 120 ideas, maybe 40 will not work or be withdrawn, 20 will work too fast for my budget, 30 will work too slow to consider at any price, and maybe 30 will be “just right”:

1. #175 – c – Dialed In – Shine Softly by Aldebaran – Mom ran a solid 94 Equibase fig going 1 1/16 on the turf, and was also a solid producer. The 2nd dam was a multiple G1 winner going long. The nick is A. 4/4 foal. A model horse. $50,000 yearling.
2. #882 – f – Mr. Speaker – Happiness Is by Dynaformer – 4/8, very solid mare, C+ nick, learned about this sire at Lone Star, might run 2 miles
3. #989 – f – Gormley – Lady Dora by Lord at War – Mom was G2 winner going long. 2nd dam was a $600,000 winner. B nick. 3/16 foal. Gormley with some stamina added. $14,000 RNA as a yearling.
4. #1077 – c – Connect – Mary Bernice by Bernardini – Mom ran a solid 86 and produced a solid horse. Bernardini is a great broodmare sire. The 2nd dam was graded winner going long on the turf. The nick is A++. 4/20 foal. $19,000 RNA as a yearling.
5. #187 – c – Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado – Mom ran a 94 sprinting on the turf, but was bred to go longer. 2nd dam a solid horse by Red Ransom. A+ nick. 5/25 foal. Believe in the magic of El Prado. $57,000 yearling.
6. #595 – f – Honor Code – Catch the Moment by Unbridled – Mom was a unraced, but has produced 4 solid horses, including a G1 winner. 2nd dam by Nureyev. B nick. 5/24 foal.
7. #216 – c – American Freedom – Souper Miss by Alphabet Soup – Mom was a solid allowance horse going long, and a decent producer. 2nd dam a solid producer. Kind of boring, but that might be good. 4/6 foal. B nick. $26,000 yearling
8. #273 – c – Midnight Storm – Suzee Sunrise by Chester House – Midnight Storm was bred to lots of marginal mares, and this is one. Only a sprinter, but bred for more. good 2nd dam by With Approval. $55,000 RNA as a yearling.
9. #191 – f – Cairo Prince – Sing Lady Sing by Scat Daddy – Mom was 87 fig router. 2nd dam was third in G2 routing, and produced Social Inclusion. A++ nick. 5/7 foal. Speculative. $25,000 yearling.
10. #843 – c – Mastery – Giant Deduction by Giant’s Causeway – Mom got a late late start, but in her third start she tried 1 /1/8 miles on the turf in a G2, running a 96. The 2nd dam was by stamina source Prized, and produced 4 graded stakes horses. Nick is a C. 5/3 foal. There are so many Mastery’s to choose from, maybe this one will be overlooked. $65,000 RNA as a yearling.
11. #794 – f – Frosted – Finnica by Empire Maker – Mom was fancy Juddmonte horse that could not run. 2nd dam was by Roberto. $37,000 RNA as a yearling. A++ nick. 5/4 foal. maybe an affordable Frosted.
12. #776 – c – Vancouver – Explainable by Dynaformer – Mom ran a 92 going 1 1/4 miles on the turf. 2nd dam a multiple G2 winner. B+ nick. 3/22 foal.
13. #1175 – f – Big Blue Kitten – Neith by Dynaformer – Mom was ok, and sold for $245,000 as a two year old. Mom was same breeding as Barbaro (Dynaformer out of a Carson City mare)
14. #314 – f – Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch. Mom ran some 80’s. Same cross as Mshawish. A nick. 2/20 foal. $21,000 yearling.
15. #466 – c – Honor Code – Anabaa’s Creation by Anabaa – Strange experimental mix of Honor Code and a Euro long distance mare. High risk, D nick
16. #477 – c – Shaman Ghost – Apology Accepted by Candy Ride – Mare unraced, but 2nd dam sister to LDK stakes winner. Speculative
17. #319 – f – Connect – Timetobegone by Vindication – kind of a specialty pick because it is the same cross as Exaggerator and the West Point yearling I passed on. $70,000 RNA yearling
18. #401 – f – Cupid – Wild Mocha by Medaglia d’ Oro – Mom was a plodder, but with great pedigree. A nick. 3/3 foal. $13,000 yearling
19. #777 – c – Cupid – Explosive Vacation by Harlan’s Holiday – Mom was a plodder, but well bred. 2nd dam a solid horse by Dynaformer. A+ nick. 5/3 foal. $22,000 yearling.
20. #1095 – f – Cupid – Mercer Mill Mae by Broken Vow – Mom was a ok turf sprinter, but bred for more. 3rd dam a multiple G1 winner going long. An A nick. 4/20 foal. $13,000 yearling.
21. #52 – f – American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado. Mom was not much, but very well bred. 2nd dam placed in a G1 routing. A nick. The magic of El Prado. $15,000 yearling.
22. #73 – f – American Freedom – Razzle Dazzle by Medaglia d’ Oro – Mom unraced, but well bred. 2nd dam was second in a G2 going long. B+ nick. 2/20 foal. $23,000 yearling.
23. #29 – f – Exaggerator – Polly Alexander by Foxhound – lots of Euro pedigree, A++ nick, classic plodder/plodder
24. #88 – Air Force Blue – Rendezvous Point by Kingmambo – A+ nick, maybe enough distance pedigree
25. #100 – f – Hard Spun – Roberta Turner by Smart Strike – 4/7 foal, mom was an expensive Pletcher horse that only ran once, but there is stamina in the pedigree
26. #138 – c – Air Force Blue – Secret Charm by Green Desert – 4/5 foal, some hints of stamina in the pedigree
27. #144 – f – Liam’s Map – Selective by Tapit – 4/15 foal, a very conventional LM that will most likely be to expensive
28. #146 – Mshawish – Sense When by Street Sense – maybe Mshawish is the forgotten sire this year, Woodman and Broken Vow at stamina, young mare
29. #160 – Cairo Prince – She Is Raging by Aggressive Chief – Pleasant Tap 2nd dam
30. #167 – f – Keen Ice – Shesastinecoldfox by Foxhound – low risk mare??
31. #178 – c – Exaggerator – Sightseeing Sis by Orb – great 2nd dam by Pleasant Colony, high risk mare, $11,000 yearling, A nick, maybe the risk you need to take????
32. #183 – c – Gormley – Silver Hustler by Political Force – solid mare, $57,000 weanling, B+ n
33. #197 – f – Exaggerator – Sluice by Seeking the Gold – 2/20 foal, huge pedigree, why is this horse here??, C nick
34. #199 – f – Honor Code – Smart Ashley by Smart Strike – 2/21 foal, solid family, A nick, cross of First Dude, maybe the best Honor Code
35. #202 – c – Cairo Prince – Smart N special by Smart Strike – 4/12, interesting mare
36. #206 – c – Twirling Candy – Snow Mesa by Sky Mesa – young mare, El Prado 2nd dam
37. #216 – c – American Freedaom – Souper Miss by Alphabet Soup – nice granddaughter of Cozzene for the mare, 4/6
38. #225 – c – Midnight Storm – Sparky Three by Monarchos – decent stamina in the mare,3/8
39. #252 – c – Hard Spun – Strike Accord by Smart Strike – solid mare 5/13
40. #253 – c – Cairo Prince – Strut the Canary by Mineshaft
41. #256 – f – Noble Mission – Style Show by Red Ransom – solid mare, 5/1
42. #291 – f – Classic Empire – Tango Time by Danehill Dancer – former Eclipse mare
43. #338 – c – Midnight Storm – Tres Hermanas by Curlin – ok mare, 5/4
44. #364 – f – Hard Spun
45. #366 – c – Klimt – Very Very by Royal Academy – stamina mare, 4/22
46. #375 – c – Warrior’s Reward
47. #383 – f – Honor Code
48. #386 – f – Gormley
49. #388 – c – Gormley
50. #397 – c – Tourist
51. #403 – c – Point of Entry
52. #408 – c – Mineshaft
53. #413 – f – Classic Empire
54. #420 – c – Midshipman
55. #421 – f – Keen Ice – plodder/plodder, 4/30 foal
56. #428 – f – Mineshaft
57. #453 – Keen Ice
58. #460 – Classic Empire
59. #511 – Animal Kingdom
60. #528 – Gormley
61. #536 – Unified – Black Escort by Southern Halo, B+ nick, interesting
62. #541 – Bal Bali – Lu Ravi is 3rd dam
63. #556 – Keen Ice – Boubonesque by Dynaformer – might go 3 miles
64. #559 – Twirling Candy
65. #560 – Jack Milton
66. #571 – Unified
67. #579 – Keen Ice
68. #615 – Mshawish
69. #616 -Twirling Candy
70. #620 – Liam’s Map
71. #629 – Unfied
72. #659 – Unified
73. #664 – Twirling Candy
74. #671 – Tonalist
75. #676 – Cupid
76. #698 – Temple City
77. #749 – Exaggerator
78. #750 – Wicked Strong
79. #752 – Connect
80. #763 – Cupid
81. #769 Flintshire
82. #771 – Gormley
83. #778 – Mr.Speaker
84. #788 – Classic Empire
85. #807 – Keen Ice
86. #808 – Twirling Candy
87. #829 – Animal
88. #833 – Dialed In
89. #843 – Mastery
90. #846 – Astern – Dynaformer mare
91. #850 – Midnight Storm
92. #853 – Frosted
93. #854 – Twirling Candy
94. #869 – Connect
95. #890 – Frosted
96. #898 – Cairo
97. #899 – Practical
98. #902 – Klimt
99. #904 – Iron Fist
100. #921 – AFB
101. #936 – Gormley – Rock Hard Ten
102. #940 – AFB
103. #947 – Alpha – dam of Mucho Gusto
104. #950 – Bernardini
105. #969 – Bernardini
106. #974 – Tapizar
107. #990 – Malibu Moon
108. #991 – Oxbow
109. #993 – Unified
110. #1005 – Liam’s Map – LDK mare
111. #1006 – Mohaymen
112. #1007 – Keen Ice
113. #1009 – Practical
114. #1020 – Mastery
115. #1041 – Hard Spun
116. #1056 – Malibu Moon
117. #1070 – MM
118. #1085 – Liam
119. #1088 – Union Rags
120. #1090 – LDK
121. #1096 – Creative
122. #1100 -Astern
123. #1101 – Temple
124. #1110 – Midshipman
125. #1127 – Honor
126. #1129 – Midnight
127. #1137 – Astern
128. #1178 – Klimt
129. #1215 – American

The bull market in horses continues. Average and median prices were up 35-40% compared to the 2019 sale. The buyback rate was only 15%, and there were very few mysterious withdrawals. What was really surprising was the bottom end of the market. There were many horses with 11.0 and higher works that still got bids of $15,000.

Some of this might have to do with a higher purse structure at Lone Star. If you want to win those purses you still have to beat Asmussen, Calhoun, Broberg, and Diodoro, which is not easy. Not a single partnership bought a horse, and only a few well known owners made a purchase. The sale topper was a strange horse by Tiznow that did not even work, he just galloped. Yet he sold for $240,000 to a trainer named Austin Gustafson that I wrote about during the Keeneland sale. He is the third leading trainer at Remington.

Just for the record, the sale was about 90% mask free among the buyers. What is interesting is that I did not recognize a single familiar face from the Simulcast Pavilion. Gamblers and owners seem to be two different crowds. Many of the buyers had cowboy hats and jeans, this was not the Keeneland crowd. It was fun to sit in the crowd and have real buyers right next to you. About 10-20% of the horses were sold to internet bidders.

I will leave the sale with four “purchases”:

1. #23 – f – Mr. Speaker – Red Hot Tops by Arch, $40,000, real buyer Dan Bates
2. #76 – c – Lea – Crema d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, $28,000, real buyer Mark Allen
3. #106 – f – Dialed In – Hard Ten Hopping , by Rock Hard Ten, $27,000, buyer Tom Galvin
4. #79 – f – Bal a Bali – Conquest Slayer by Scat Daddy, $13,500, buyer BKD Consulting

All four real buyers have little racing experience, so they will be interesting to watch. I thought these prices were reasonable, but certainly not bargains. The Dialed In filly was a really big horse, like her damsire Rock Hard Ten. I was not that impressed by the physical appearance of several of the other horses that I had an interest in. I tried to find a Texas-bred, but they all looked like small sprinters to me.

Given the poor sale results I detailed in the previous post, I am not sure I would have really bought any of these 4 horses. It might be fun to watch my own horse at Lone Star, but the meet ends in July. Sam Houston in the fall makes more sense.

I have written several times that it the intention of this author to remain positive. However, the facts are the facts.

I did a little research into the results of the 2019 sale held at Lone Star (the sale was canceled in 2020). It is a little difficult to do. You have to enter the name of the mare into the Pedigree Online database to get the name of the horse, and then use Equibase to get the results. It took about 3 hours to do the top 30 horses.

The results were shocking.

Ten of the top 30 horses did not even make it to the track. The top 2 horses sold for $150,000 and the 30th horse sold for $22,000.

From the 2019 Lone Star 2 year old sale, the 20 horses that made it to the track made an average of $32,000. These results were aided by the top earners that made over $100,000 on the track, but only by being entered in claiming races very early in their careers. Not a single horse of this 30 won an allowance race at a track other than Lone Star, Remington, or Sam Houston. None ran an Equibase fig over 90 (roughly and 80 Beyer). Two of the bigger winners were aided by winning the Futurity races that this sale conducts, which have decent purses (one Futurity winner won with a Equibase fig of 70).

The 30 horses sold for roughly $1,400,000 and earned $650,000 before adding any training costs. If the average horse that ran was in training for 12 months, and the cost of training was $3,000/month, the cost for just the running horses would be $720,000 (this assumes no cost for the 10 horses that never ran).

The sale was a complete wipeout. The average return was roughly $0 on an average cost of $45,000/horse. Maybe this figure is a little low if the horses were mercifully claimed early in their careers from their original buyers. It is possible some of the fillies have some residual value as mares. Maybe some of these horses will have great records as 5 year olds, but I doubt it. Maybe there is a great horse that sold for under $20,000. Remember I added no costs for the horses that never ran, and $3,000/month is a rate that really assumes not vet costs.

The world would be a better place if the the individual sales would fully disclose the eventual winnings of their graduates, but they never will.

Caveat emptor, “let the buyer beware”

In all fairness, I have not done similar calculations for the other sales (Ocala, Gultstream, Timonium) and I have not done the prior years for Lone Star. I know that two horses I “selected” out of the Ocala sale last year won the G2 Remsen, and the G1 American Pharoah. The horses from the Lone Star sale have an extra year, and their results are nowhere near the Ocala sale.

My plan is to watch the sale with great interest, and then keep careful track of how the horse run going forward. My expectations are low, very low, but maybe there is a gem in there somewhere.

I went out and watched the under tack show for the Lone Star sale.

To me the crowd was pretty sparse at about 50 people. About 90% of these folks were not even watching the horses run past the wire, so it make me wonder how serious they were. I saw one guy with a stopwatch timing the works past the wire. Maybe there were sharper eyes watching from the grandstand that I could not see? It was a beautiful 70 degree day so who want to sit inside?

Steve Asmussen was there watching carefully. His family’s farm was the consigner of several of the horses. Would you buy a used car from this man? It makes you wonder about the horses that come from farms. Do they keep the good ones and sell the bad ones? Would you rather be buying from a pinhooker that has more of an economic reason to sell?

I realize that I am not that good judge of works. I could not really tell the fast works from the slow works until the time was posted. I am a sucker for the longer striding horses, and tend to overate them compared them to the quicker, but often smaller horses. I prefer horses with their head held lower when they run.

7 of the 36 horses I was interested in did not work. The fastest work was a 10.1, and there were a few 10.2’s, the 10.3’s seem to be the sweet spot, and the 10.4’s are marginal. The works were into a 20 mph wind, so the absolute times were slow.

I come away really liking just three horses:

1. #23 – f – Mr. Speaker – Red Hot Tops by Arch, A++ nick, 4/5 foal, interesting sire, lots of stamina in dam, maybe, worked 10.3, was a $15,000 yearling buy, Already named Red Hot Moon, consigned by Benchmark (located 40 miles east of Dallas, has Euro roots, interesting), I love the photo, looks tall but immature, owner/pinhooker is Rebel Stables (0 for 23 at Sam Houston), first foal name Shooting already a $30,000 claimer at Gulfstream, was $27,000 yearling buy, running 70 Equibase
2. #76 – c – Lea – Crema d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, A++ nick, 3/16 foal, mare a $20,000 claimer router, 2nd dam by Broad Brush, third in the G2 Davona Dale, worked 10.3, was RNA’d for $9.000 as a yearling. Already named Shamayin, consigned by Pike Racing (which does not have a horse at Ocala)
3. #106 – f – Dialed In – Hard Ten Hopping , by Rock Hard Ten, A nick, nick of Coal Play, 3/22 foal, ok photo, looks immature, worked 10.4, another Benchmark horse, dam a full sister to a G1 router, first foal a $150,000 yearling, ran 80 fig at Gulfstream, this filly was a $15,000 yearling

To me these horses would be a bargain at $25,000, fairly priced at $35,000, and a stretch at $50,000.

Mr. Speaker is an interesting sire. He did win a G1 (the Belmont Derby) going long on the turf, and produced a nice dirt horse the Eclipse folks bought called Speech that won the G1 Ashland. Maybe he is an under the radar sire?

Lea is sire that not many folks like, but that I am willing to consider. I love the pedigree of the mare. Let’s remember that Brooklyn Strong is a 3rd tier sire, out of Medaglia d Oro mare.

Dialed In is a “value” sire, that is maybe a little better than the public perceives.

I am a little bored, so let’s run a little further with the Benchmark Training angle. The owner is from Wales, and the farm manager is from Ireland. The farm is in Quinlan, Texas, which is town of 1,300 east of Dallas. Maybe just being from Europe will rub off on their horses.

1. #49 – c – My Golden Song – Um Malakeh by Jump Start – here the dam is by AP Indy son Jump Start, and the 2nd dam is by Affirmed, the nick is only C, the work was 10.4, this is a Texas bred, the sire is a son of Unbridled Song
2. #22 – f – Union Rags – Quilt by Pulpit, D nick, marginal mare, big $ sire for this sale. worked 10.3
3. #30 – f – Bradster – Sashay by Stroll – the dam brings in Kingmambo and Lord at War, she was a decent turf sprinter, the work was a quick 10.2, let’s watch for fun, another Texas bred
4. #63 – c – Dialed In – Ballado’s Thunder by Saint Ballado, D nick, 4/9 foal, mare won $265,000, and produced a $700,000 winner, worked 10.4
5. #79 – f – Bal a Bali – Conquest Slayer by Scat Daddy, first foal, speculative, worked 10.3

If I had a relationship with trainer, would I really buy one of these horses?

Why have some horses in a two year old sale already have a name? Is this an important variable? It seems that 5-10% already have a name.

Being a cynical bastard, I worry a little about horses that already have a name. It makes me think the current owner intended to race the horse, but now wants to sell it instead. Did something go wrong?

I am sure there are other possible explanations, but I worry about the one above. Naming a horse is one of the benefits of ownership. Why would someone take the risk of using a name a potential owner did not like?

I assume that once a horse is named, it cannot be changed, but I am not certain of this rule.

This reminds me that there are still many details about these sales that i do not understand.

There is a small 2 year old in training sale at Lone Star this week. It is hard to judge the quality of these 120 horses, but just for fun let’s pick out a few before they work

1. #26 – c – Gormley – Risen Day by Storm Day, B+ nick, 3/18 foal, mare did not win until she was 5, 2nd dam a runner by Pleasant Colony, 3rd dam by Nijinsky, worked 10.4
2. #63 – c – Dialed In – Ballado’s Thunder by Saint Ballado, D nick, 4/9 foal, mare won $265,000, and produced a $700,000 winner, worked 10.4
3. #76 – c – Lea – Crema d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, A++ nick, 3/16 foal, mare a $20,000 claimer router, 2nd dam by Broad Brush third in the G2 Davona Dale, worked 10.3
4. #95 – Klimt – Franchesca by Henerythenavigator. D nick, 3/11 foal, lot of stamina pedigree in dam including 2nd dam by Stawberry Road, gallop only
5. #23 – f – Mr. Speaker – Red Hot Tops by Arch, A++ nick, 4/5 foal, interesting sire, lots of stamina in dam, maybe, worked 10.3
6. #24 – Mr. Speaker – Redgrass Cat by Bluegrass Cat, mare ran85 fig, router, ok, worked 10.3
7. #81 – f – American Freedom – Cowgirl in Love by Cowboy Cal, D nick , mare was a 85 fig router, 2nd dam by Seattle Slew, worked 11.0
8. #47 – Midnight Storm – Tiza Cow girl by Tiznow, 4/27 foal, C nick, dam unraced, only ok, worked 10.4
9. #85 – f – Tiznow – Delta Weekend by Jump Start – Very solid mare, gallop only
10. #56 – g – Honor Code – Georgia’s Cat by Super Saver , slow mare, first foal, worked 10.3
11. #22 – f – Union Rags – Quilt by Pulpit, D nick, marginal mare, big $ sire for this sale. worked 10.3
12. #53 – f – Klimt – Woodland Spirit by Woodman, 3/6, D nick, solid mare, worked very fast 10,1
13. #39 – Bodemeister – Splendid Bloom by AP Indy, well bred mare, did not work
14. #79 – f – Bal a Bali – Conquest Slayer by Scat Daddy, first foal, speculative, worked 10.3
15. #99 – f – Orb – Getaway Girl by Silver Deputy, interesting family, 5/6 foal, did not work
16. #115 – Tonalist – strange breeding, not that interesting, did not work
17. #65 – Dialed In – worked 10.3
18. #106 Dialed In – worked 10.4
19. #20 – Tapiture – worked 11.3
20. #45 – Tapiture – worked 11.0
21. #48 – Tapiture – worked 11.1
22. #74 – Midshipman – worked 10.3
23. #113 – Midshipman – worked 24.4
24. #42 – Hard Spun – Tapit mare, but not much to show, worked 10,2
25. #114 – Street Sense – Dixie Union mare, ok, worked a horrible 11.3
26. #110 – Bernardini – Unbridled Song mare, ok, worked 10.3
27. #84 – Malibu Moon – The Factor mare, first foal, worked 11.1
28. #55 – Empire Maker – Alinea bt Hard Spun, worked 10.4
29. #112 – Practical Joke – worked 10.4
30. #67 – Lord Nelson – did not work
31. #27 – Congrats – multiple G2 winner mare, worked 11.0
32. #52 – Congrats – LDK mare – did not work
33. #94 – Bodemeister – worked 10.4
34. #35 – Wicked Strong – worked 10.3
35. #98 – Super Saver – worked 11.2
36. #32 – Kitten’s Joy – worked 11.1

I am not sure what to expect. Will the faster works sell for $50,000, or maybe $100,000. What could you by for $20,000? Why are these horses not it Ocala? Maybe the breeders are in Texas?

As the Derby preps com to an end, and the Triple Crown races loom, it is a good time to consider the stakes schedule for the remainder of the year.

Even after watching racing for 20+ years, it is amazing how little I actually know about this part of racing. I guess unless you actually own a nice horse you really do not think about it.

There are several categories:

3 yr old colts on the dirt:

1. Peter Pan – G3 – May 8th – Belmont – 9f
2. Matt Win – G3 – May 29 – Churchill – 8.5f
3. Texas Derby – $300,000 – May 31 – Lone Star – 8.5f
4. Ohio Derby – G3 – June 26 – Thistledown – 9f
5. Iowa Derby – $250,000 – July 2 – Prairie Meadows
6. Dwyer – G3 – July 5 – Belmont – 8f
7. Indiana Derby – G3 – July 7 – Indiana Downs – 8.5f
8. Haskell – G1 – July 17 – Monmouth – 9f
9. Jim Dandy – G2 – July 31 – Saratoga – 9f
10. Travers – G1 – August 28 – Saratoga – 10f
11. Penn Derby – September – Parx – 9f

3 yr old colts on the turf

1. Penn Mile – G2 – May 28 – Penn National – 8f
2. Pennine Ridge – May 28 – Belmont – 9f
3. Belmont Derby – G1 – July 10 – 10f
4. Hall of Fame – G2 – August 6 – Saratoga – 8f
5. Saratoga Derby – G1 -August 7 – Saratoga – 9.5f
6. Bruce D. – G1 – August 14 – Arlington – 8f
7. Del Mar Derby – G2 – September 4 – Del Mar

3 yr old colts sprinting

1. Pat Day Mile – G2 – May 1st – Churchill – 8f
2. Chick Lang – G3 – May 15th – Pimlico – 6f
3. Laz Barrera – G3 – May 15 – SA – 6f
4. Woody Stephens – G1 – June 5 – 7f
5. Allen Jerkens – G1 – August 28 – Saratoga – 7f

3 yr old fillies on dirt:

1. Black Eyed Susan – G2 – May 14 – Pimlico – 9f
2. Summertime Oaks – G2 – May 30 – Santa Anita – 8.5f
3. Mother Goose – G2 – June 26 – Belmont – 8.5f
4. Iowa Oaks – G3 – July 2 – Prairie Meadows – 8.5f
5. Delaware Oaks – G3 – July 3 – Delaware – 8.5f
6. Indiana Oaks – G3 – July 7 – Indiana Downs – 8.5f
7. Monmouth Oaks – G3 – July 21 – Monmouth – 8.5f
8. Alabama – G1 – August 21 – Saratoga – 10f
9. Charlestown Oaks – G3 – Charlestown – 7f

3 yr old fillies on turf

1. Edgewood – G2 – April 30 – Churchill – 8.5f
2. Belmont Oaks – G1 – July 10 – Belmont – 8.5f
3. Lake George – G3 – July 23 – Saratoga – 8f
4. San Clemente – G2 – July 24 – Del Mar – 8f
5. Saratoga Oaks – G3 – August 8 – Saratoga – 9.5f
6. Del Mar Oaks – G1 – August 21 – Del Mar – 9f
7. Lake Placid – G2 – August 21 – Saratoga – 8.5f

3 yr old fillies sprinting

1. Acorn – G1 – June 5 – Belmont – 8f
2. Test – G1 – August 7 – Saratoga – 7f
3. Prioress – G2 – September 4 – Saratoga – 6f

But the owner’s of 3 year olds can also choose to take on older horses:

Dirt:

1. x

Turf:

1. x

4 yr olds

1. Oaklawn Handicap – G2 – 9f
2. Alysheba -G2 – Churchhill – 8.5f
3. Stephan Foster – G2 – Churchill – 9f
4. Brooklyn – G2 – Belmont – 12f
5. Suburban – G2 – Saratoga – 10f
6. Whitney – G1 – Saratoga – 9f

1. Forego – G1 – Saratoga – 7f
2. John Nerud – G2 – Belmont – 7f

1. Sword Dancer – Saratoga – 12f
2. Bowling Green – G2 – Saratoga – 11f

In the previous post I have the 50 horses that made to the final Derby preps. The main conclusion is the horses come in many different type, but you can see some trends.

Where purchased:

1. Yearling sale – 20
2. Home bred – 17
3. 2 yr old in training sale – 6
4. other – 5

Yearling sales lead by a wide margin,

How much paid:

1. over $1 million
2. over $500,000
3. $250,000 – $500,000
4. $100,000 – $250,000
5. $50,000 – $100,000
6. less than $50,000

This will be a work in progress

Here is one thing I always wanted to do. Where do the Derby horses come from. In order to get a better sample size let’s look at the big preps:

1. Arkansas Derby
2. Wood Memorial
3. Bluegrass
4. Florida Derby
5. Santa Anita Derby
6. Louisiana Derby
7. plus a few likely others

Name	Auct.	Price	Sire	Dam Sire	$ won	Eqi.	2nd dam	$ won	first	foal
Roman Centurian	year	550	Empire	Bernadi	50	85	Storm	708	Nov	Feb
Dream Shake	2 yr	75/32	Twirl	Street	97	94	For Wild	952	Feb	Apr
Rock Your World	year	650	Candy	Empire	340	96	Giant	336	Jan	Feb
Parnelli	year	500	Quality	Bernadi	unr	—	Not For	153	Sept	Apr
Back Ring Luck	year	32	Malibu	Rahy	unra		Prized	433	May	Apr
Ottothelegend	home	—	Uncle	Chester	9	74	Danzig	0	Jan	Jan
Medina Spirit	HRA	35	Proton	Brilliant	25	73	Unbride	0	Dec	Apr
Law Professor	home	—	Consti	Ghost	287	103	Monarch	42	Feb	Mar
The Great One	2 yr	185	Nyquist	El Corr	731	97	Coronod	186	Sep	Feb
Defunded	year	210	Dialed	Touch	194	114	Summer	182	Aug	Apr
Highly Motivat	HRA	240	Into	Warrior	126	96	Comic	176	Aug	Mar
Essential Quali	home	—	Tapit	Elusive	253	106	Storm	0	Sep	Apr
Hidden Stash	year	50	Consti	Smart	1	53	Danzig	0	Aug	Mar
Untreated	year	425	Nyquist	Un Son	172	97	Pulpit	43	Jan	Apr
Rombauer	home	—	Twirl	Cowboy	unr	—	Afleet	0	Jul	Apr
Leblon	year	(45)	Broken	Giant	unr	—	Seattle	103	Jul	Feb
Hush of a Stro	2 yr	75/60	Creative	Flatter	68	82	Quiet	0	Nov	Jan
Sitting On Go	year	62	Brodys	More Th	58	75	Giant	15	Aug	Jan
Keepmeinmind	??	—	Laoban	Victory	unr	—	Silent	83	Oct	Mar
Brooklyn Stron	2 yr	6/5	Wicked	Medagli	90	98	Thunder	0	Sep	Jan
Crowded Trade	HRA	185	More Th	Jump	252	104	Thunder	0	Jan	Feb
Bourbonic	home	—	Bernad	Afleet	280	104	Afleet	68	Oct	Apr
Risk Taking	year	240	Medagli	Distort	205	104	Private	59	Oct	Mar
Dynamic One	year	725	Union R	Smart	1	38	Storm	999	Nov	Feb
Prevalence	home	—	Medagli	Ghost	42	84	Seeking	248	Jan	Feb
Candy Man Ro	2 yr	250	Candy	Forest	81	91	Mr. Pro	13	Nov	Apr
Weyburn	home	—	Pio Nile	AP Indy	unr	—	Sunday	7	Oct	Apr
Market Maven	home	—-	Super 9	Noble	250	94	Turkey	127	Nov	Apr
Known Agenda	year	(135)	Curlin	Byron	670	105	Darshan	0	Oct	Mar
Greatest Honor	home	—	Tapit	Street	2	77	Deputy	250	Sep	Apr
Soup and Sand	home	—	Into	Tapit	85	106	Gone We	337	Jan	Mar
Nova Rags	year	(275)	Union	Smart	271	103	Salem	140	Oct	Mar
Collaborate	year	600	Into	Quiet	630	99	Silver	0	Feb	Mar
Southern Pass	year	47	Super	Sil Plan	100	100	Engrill	0	Aug	Mar
Papetu	year	80	Dialed	Sharp	42	72	Richter	142	Jun	May
Spielberg	year	1000	Union	Smart	109	93	Storm	144	Aug	Feb
Quantum Leap	year	270	Pio Nile	Distort	15	73	In Exces	600	Nov	May
Hot Rod Char	year	110	Oxbow	Indian	6	78	Smoke	90	Jul	Apr
O Besos	home	—	Orb	Soto	288	100	Baron	7	Nov	Mar
Midnight Bour	year	525	Tiznow	Malibu	0	—	Yes its	147	Aug	Jan
Proxy	home	—	Tapit	Include	999	107	Private	7	Oct	Apr
Mandaloun	home	—	Into	Empire	250	100	Dansili	55	Oct	Mar
Run Classic	2 yr	475	Runhap	Chatain	39	64	Glitter	35	Jan	Feb
Starrininmy	home	—	Super	Sky	2	48	Meadow	0	Sep	May
Rightandjust	home	—	Awesom	Tiznow	3	62	AP Indy	0	Nov	Apr
Concert Tour	home		Street	Tapit	105	92	Mt. Live	2	Jan	Feb
Like the King	year	170	Palace	Corinth	125	96	Unbridle	3	Jul	Feb
Hozier	year	625	Pio Nil	Henny	852	111	Allen	66	Jan	Feb
Helium	year	55	Ironicus	Thunder	142	109	Saint	90	Sep	Apr
Rebels Roma	home	—	Dubawi	Street	22	85	Dictat	357	Oct	Mar

The race for the 2022 began today with the first 2 year old races at Keeneland. I have always wanted to keep track of these super-early horses and see what happens to them as they age.

So let’s write down some names and keep track of them:

1. Bohemian Frost (Frosted) the winner for Ennis
2. Dream Fly (American Pharoah) Wesley Ward favorite broke slow
3. Offaly Easy (Will Take Charge) who is Niall Collum
4. Violent Move (Violence)
5. Jamaican Traffic (Cross Traffic)
6. Baytown Valleygirl (Klimt)
7. An Apple a Day (Honor Code)
8. American Bound (American Freedom) the winner, AF now the leading freshman sire
9. Bode For You (Munnings)
10. Magnilquent (American Pharoah) Ward
11. Midnight Pass (Lookin at Lucky) Brad Cox

Back in the real world, I face an interesting choice. Dare to Dream still has 10% left in the American Freedom colt they bought in Ocala. A 2% share would cost about $2,000.

Given Dare to Dream’s success with Quick Tempo, I really should give them a chance. They only paid $47,000 for this guy. There was an American Freedom that sold for $550,000 at the Gulfstream sale. The new colt offered by Dare to Dream will be called American Sanctuary. The mare here is by E Dubai, so there is some stamina pedigree. The mare was a allowance level router. The photo is good looking. I think that last year I would have been a buyer.

I want to wait for yearlings. I just hate the idea of young horses being forced to work this early. I know that the yearling I own 5% of (Ribot’s Valentine, by Point of Entry) is still far from running timed works, and Ray Handel thinks she will be a precocious filly that could start in races by August. Pushing horses for all out timed works in March just cannot be a good idea, especially for later developing horses.

When is a horse sale not really a horse sale?

When not that many horses get sold.

The most honest description of the Gulfstream sale that I read was “thin”. Only 67 of the 186 horses brought to the sale actually sold. The median price actually fell 20% from 2019 to “only” $300,000. There were a couple of big prices, but what I will remember is the 10 horses that were RNAed for over $300,000 and 80 were withdrawn. Only 36% of the horses got sold. Where will these unsold horses go? After the great results from the Ocala March sale, the results of Gulfstream must be called disappointing.

There were 3 horses than sold for over $1 million, a $2.7 million Nyquist, a $1.7 million Gun Runner, and a $1.3 million Uncle Mo. However, the top Arrogate sold for “only” $550,000 and the top Classic Empire for only $410,000. I guess all the “good” horses from these sires got sold as yearlings, and nobody was willing to pinhook them last year. Maybe this sale is not as “select” as I thought it was.

When I look through the to 20 horses sold, none of them jump off the page as a “wow” horse. I guess I have already become a “yearling snob”.

Do you know who agrees with me? The other partnerships. West Point bought parts of 3 expensive horses, but none of the other partnerships bought a single horse. WP bought part of a $900,000 Nyquist (from an unplaced and non-producing mare), part of a $390,000 Liam’s Map (from weak mare, and a first foal), and part of $475,000 Outwork (the mare was very sprinty, and a non-producer).

I guess the motto of this sale was:

If you want even a ounce of pedigree, don’t go the “select” 2 year old in training sale.

MY RESULTS

I guess if I were forced to pick my favorite buy it would be:

#184 – c – Malibu Moon – Noble Ready by More Than Ready – 4/12 foal, 10.1 work, $270,000

Live Oak Plantation was the buyer. The mare was 2nd in a turf stake going 1 /16 miles on the turf as a 2 year old. The dam is a full sister to G2 route winner. The 2nd dam was a nice Kris S., with some interesting stamina oriented Euro-pedigree.

Let’s add this guy to the 4 that I “bought” at Ocala March.

———-

The biggest disappointment was that #59 Cairo Prince I was interested in (and had been withdrawn form the Ocala sale), was RNAed for $290,000. I want to keep track of sellers that are “difficult to buy from”. In this case the consigner was Top Line Sales.

The Dialed In I liked was also a $345,000 RNA by Wavertree Sales, and the Mastery I liked was also a $245,000 RNA by Wavertree. My top pick was the Union Rags colt that was a $195,000 RNA for Randy Bradshaw. The two Gormley’s I liked were withdrawn.

The Practical Joke from a LDK mare I like worked a quick 10.1, but sold for only $300,000. Maybe I should call this a “value”, but actually I would call it a TGTBT (To Good To Be True). I also really do not like to photo of this horse, so I will pass.

If I had money from investors and was trying to win the Kentucky Derby/Oaks, what would I do?

I guess I would try to buy either #167 (Union Rag out of a Medaglia d’ Oro mare), or #148 (Practical Joke out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), both worked a “too fast for me” 10.1. I would guess their price tag to be at least $500,000. I they sold for less I would be concerned that something was wrong.

If I were trying to earn a good return what horse should I buy?

Maybe I should try my Cairo Prince #59, that worked a more reasonable 10.2. Could I “steal him for $300,000? But I hate the picture (short neck and a sprinter build), so I am going to pass on him.

My Gormley #44 worked a too slow 10.4, and my other Gormley #58 was a “no show”.

Maybe I should try #129 (Dialed In filly, out of mare with some interesting Euro pedigree). The work was a marginal 10.3. This is an April 18th foal, and the mare has produced two very nice, but not spectacular, horses. Maybe this horse will be overlooked. Should I be willing to pay $200,000? This is an A++ nick, similar to Tacitus. The photo is ok, but not great. If you really believe this is a select sale, maybe you can pay that price. I like the value better at Ocala, but this is reasonable.

Those were the 6 horses I liked based on solid stamina oriented pedigrees before I saw the works. Now let’s look at all the 10.2 works, and see what might get overlooked.

Maybe #184, a Malibu Moon colt out of a More Than Ready mare with some Euro pedigree in the second dam). A April 12 foal and a B nick. Maybe Malibu Moon is becoming an overlooked sire. This guy was a $95,000 yearling, maybe they would flip him for $200,000. The photo is ok, maybe a little immature.

The #76 is a Gormley out a West Virginia turf sprinter that is interesting, but I will pass.

Just for fun let’s also think about the 10.3’s:

Maybe #33 a Mastery colt, out of a Midsphipman mare, A++ nick, was a $135,000 yearling. Maybe they will dump him for $150,000.

How crazy will the prices be for this “select” sale that was not held in 2020?

In 2019 the median price of the 59 horses sold was $375,000

In 2019 six horses sold for more than $1 million, with the topper being $1.65 million

14 sold for $500,000 or more, 9 sold for $400,000 of more

Just for fun lets take a guess:

The 9.4 will go for $1 million (he is a first foal, out of a marginal mare), the 10.0 will go for a median of $700,000, and the 10.1 for a median of $550,000, and the 10.2 for a median of $350,000 and the 10.3 for a median of $250,000

And the winner is?

The results of the under tack show are in:

1. 9.4 – 1 – 1%
2. 10.0 – 9 – 8%
3. 10.1 – 23 – 19%
4. 10.2 – 36 – 31%
5. 10.3 – 27 – 23%
6. 10.4 – 15 – 13%
7. 11.0 – 5 – 4%
8. 11.1 – 2 – 2%

1. 21.1 – 1
2. 21.2 – 2
3. 21.4 – 3
4. 22.0 – 2
5. 22.2 – 2

galloped – 7 – 4%

out – 26%

Given how strong the prices were in Ocala two weeks ago, it is a little strange to see 30% of the horse not even work.

It is a little strange that only 6% choose to work 2 furlongs, compared to over 20% at Ocala.

It is just so frustrating not to have these results reported to two decimal places. It is also frustrating the runout times are not reported, even though those times are available for an extra $500/horse.

The “select” Gulfstream sale occurs in about a week. Since the median price paid is well above reasonable, I am not holding out much hope of finding a bargain. But you never know, so let’s try to be prepared.

Ideas of interest:

1. #167 – Union Rags – Mega Dream by Medaglia d’ Oro. Only a $45,000 yearling. Mare was solid, but not spectacular. Dam produced a $250,000 winner in three tries. F nick, but that might be the story. Lots of stamina in this pedigree. 2nd dam by St. Jovite, 3rd dam by Lyphard. My new favorite. 4/20 foal.
2. #59 – Cairo Prince – Warrior Girl by War Chant – my favorite horse by far, but was a $200,000 yearling. Would I pay $300,000?. What if the work is slow?
3. #148 – Practical Joke – Lemon Gala by Lemon Drop Kid – Maybe this will be the PJ nobody wants. A+ nick. 4/25 foal
4. #58 – Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – I love the breeding. Only a $60,000 yearling. Maybe at some price? 5/9 foal. B+ nick. I could have been the pinhooker!
5. #44 – Gormley – The Best Option by Pleasant Tap – I love the breeding, but sold for $140,000 as a yearling. Why is Helligbrodt selling here? What price would I pay?
6. #129 – Dialed In – Imprecation by First Defence – Maybe she gets lost at this sale? Not sold as a yearling or weanling.

Not very much much to choose from. Lots of sprint oriented dam side pedigrees. Also lots of “empty” mares. If you like to pay up for good “physicals”. you will love this sale. I wish I could be more positive, but I have looked through this catalog several times and found very little I like. I hope everyone spends their money here, and forgets to go to Ocala in April.

After I go through this catalog the first time I come to one conclusion.

The March sale is at least partially a “select sale”. This catalog has more “extra” horses with pedigrees that are very weak. There are more first foals and unraced dams. That is just my feel, there is no way I can quantify it. At first glance it seems the better horses were brought to the first sale.

1. #175 – c – Dialed In – Shine Softly by Aldebaran – Mom ran a solid 94 Equibase fig going 1 1/16 on the turf, and was also a solid producer. The 2nd dam was a multiple G1 winner going long. The nick is A. 4/4 foal. A model horse. $50,000 yearling.
2. #989 – f – Gormley – Lady Dora by Lord at War – Mom was G2 winner going long. 2nd dam was a $600,000 winner. B nick. 3/16 foal. Gormley with some stamina added. $14,000 RNA as a yearling.
3. #1077 – c – Connect – Mary Bernice by Bernardini – Mom ran a solid 86 and produced a solid horse. Bernardini is a great broodmare sire. The 2nd dam was graded winner going long on the turf. The nick is A++. 4/20 foal. $19,000 RNA as a yearling.
4. #187 – c – Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado – Mom ran a 94 sprinting on the turf, but was bred to go longer. 2nd dam a solid horse by Red Ransom. A+ nick. 5/25 foal. Believe in the magic of El Prado. $57,000 yearling.
5. #595 – f – Honor Code – Catch the Moment by Unbridled – Mom was a unraced, but has produced 4 solid horses, including a G1 winner. 2nd dam by Nureyev. B nick. 5/24 foal.
6. #216 – c – American Freedom – Souper Miss by Alphabet Soup – Mom was a solid allowance horse going long, and a decent producer. 2nd dam a solid producer. Kind of boring, but that might be good. 4/6 foal. B nick. $26,000 yearling
7. #272 – c – Midnight Storm – Suzee Sunrise by Chester House – Midnight Storm was bred to lots of marginal mares, and this is one. Only a sprinter, but bred for more. good 2nd dam by With Approval. $55,000 RNA as a yearling.
8. #191 – f – Cairo Prince – Sing Lady Sing by Scat Daddy – Mom was 87 fig router. 2nd dam was third in G2 routing, and produced Social Inclusion. A++ nick. 5/7 foal. Speculative. $25,000 yearling.
9. #843 – c – Mastery – Giant Deduction by Giant’s Causeway – Mom got a late late start, but in her third start she tried 1 /1/8 miles on the turf in a G2, running a 96. The 2nd dam was by stamina source Prized, and produced 4 graded stakes horses. Nick is a C. 5/3 foal. There are so many Mastery’s to choose from, maybe this one will be overlooked. $65,000 RNA as a yearling.
10. #794 – f – Frosted – Finnica by Empire Maker – Mom was fancy Juddmonte horse that could not run. 2nd dam was by Roberto. $37,000 RNA as a yearling. A++ nick. 5/4 foal. maybe an affordable Frosted.
11. #776 – c – Vancouver – Explainable by Dynaformer – Mom ran a 92 going 1 1/4 miles on the turf. 2nd dam a multiple G2 winner. B+ nick. 3/22 foal.
12. #1175 – f – Big Blue Kitten – Neith by Dynaformer – Mom was ok, and sold for $245,000 as a two year old. Mom was same breeding as Barbaro (Dynaformer out of a Carson City mare)
13. #314 – f – Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch. Mom ran some 80’s. Same cross as Mshawish. A nick. 2/20 foal. $21,000 yearling.
14. #466 – c – Honor Code – Anabaa’s Creation by Anabaa – Strange experimental mix of Honor Code and a Euro long distance mare. High risk, D nick
15. #477 – c – Shaman Ghost – Apology Accepted by Candy Ride – Mare unraced, but 2nd dam sister to LDK stakes winner. Speculative
16. #319 – f – Connect – Timetobegone by Vindication – kind of a specialty pick because it is the same cross as Exaggerator and the West Point yearling I passed on. $70,000 RNA yearling
17. #401 – f – Cupid – Wild Mocha by Medaglia d’ Oro – Mom was a plodder, but with great pedigree. A nick. 3/3 foal. $13,000 yearling
18. #777 – c – Cupid – Explosive Vacation by Harlan’s Holiday – Mom was a plodder, but well bred. 2nd dam a solid horse by Dynaformer. A+ nick. 5/3 foal. $22,000 yearling.
19. #1095 – f – Cupid – Mercer Mill Mae by Broken Vow – Mom was a ok turf sprinter, but bred for more. 3rd dam a multiple G1 winner going long. An A nick. 4/20 foal. $13,000 yearling.
20. #52 – f – American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado. Mom was not much, but very well bred. 2nd dam placed in a G1 routing. A nick. The magic of El Prado. $15,000 yearling.
21. #73 – f – American Freedom – Razzle Dazzle by Medaglia d’ Oro – Mom unraced, but well bred. 2nd dam was second in a G2 going long. B+ nick. 2/20 foal. $23,000 yearling.

The Ocala April catalog is out. It is 1200+ horses, with 20+ selections from the popular sires. It seems a little overwhelming at first glance. I will start with my top 15 sires, 10 new, and 5 old, and then some of my more offbeat ideas.

I will try to slowly build this list over the next few weeks:

1. Honor Code (9) – 466, 595. ok/marginal
2. Cairo Prince (15) – 41,160,191, 253, 898, ok/marginal
3. Dialed In (10) – 175, 583, 833 – one very good
4. Twirling Candy (20) – 559, 616, 664, 708, 808, 838, 854, 1091, 206 – ok
5. Exaggerator (15) – 178, 725, 749 – marginal
6. Midnight Storm (18) – 273, 297, 338, 850, 1129, 15, 131, 264 – ok
7. Gormley (17) -183, 936. 989* – ok
8. Connect (20) – 319, 1077, 752, 869, 1177, 1207, 265 – several solid
9. American Freedom (21) – 52, 73, 216, 552, 670, 1016, 1108, 1215, above average
10. Cupid (27) – 187*, 401, 777, 1095 – above average
11. Unified (19)- 56, 536, 571, 667, 709, 993, 997, 1182 – ok
12. Classic Empire (28) – 291, 739, 788 – marginal
13. Klimt (34) – 164, 366*, 731, 1178
14. Keen Ice (14) – 556, 579 – marginal
15. Mastery (18) – 843* , 1020

Offbeat ideas:

1. Shaman Ghost (1) – 477 – ok
2. Point of Entry (3) – 403 – marginal
3. Temple City (7) – 233 – marginal
4. Tonalist (8) – 534 – marginal
5. Astern (9) – 314, 846, 1100, 1137 – interesting
6. Lea (1) – nothing
7. Big Blue Kitten (1) – very interesting
8. Air Force Blue (7) – 88,138 – ok
9. Frosted (23) – 23, 239, 794*, 853, – ok
10. Lemon Drop Kid (5) – 1090 – marginal
11. Maclean’s Music (13) – 58, 512, 848, 1070 – above average
12. Midshipman (5) – 420 – marginal
13. Noble Mission (5) – 256, 1119, 1146 – ok
14. Summer Front (1) – nothing
15. Anchor Down (3) – nothing
16. Upstart (10) – 54 – marginal
17. Vancouver (3) – 776 – interesting
18. Violence (22) – 313, 685, 692, 959 – ok
19. Tapiture (13) – 348, 446, 462, 496,
20. Ironicus (1) – nothing
21. Animal Kingdom (2) – 511 – marginal
22. Bal a Bali (5) – 541, 849
23. Warrior’s Reward (1) – 375 – ok
24. Tapizar (3) – 974
25. Tourist (1) – 397
26. Mr Speaker (3) – 882*
27. Morning Line – 275
28. jack Milton – 560
29. Iron Fist – 904

One handicapping angle that has worked well for a friend is choosing horses that had the misfortune of running against a “killer” (a very good horse). There was a maiden race yesterday at Oaklawn that fits that bill. Mighty Mischief ran an 81 Beyer first time out, and lost by a head. He came into today at 3 to 5 and won easily earning an Equibase fig of 100.

The 8-1 fourth choice was a horse named Reserve trained by Ron Moquett. He ran with the leader for a quarter mile and then packed it in finishing a distant 7th.

Reserve is a son of Tiznow, out of a mare that ran route races in England and the UAE. The 2nd dam was a G1 winner routing on the turf. The 3rd dam is by the great Roberto. He was $120,000 buy as a yearling by the owner of Oaklawn Louis Cella. Moquett is known as the trainer of Whitmore, but he has been a good long shot trainer over the years. Let’s be watching for Reserve’s 2nd start.

Let’s grab one more horse out of that same race.

Time Is Yours is a nicely bred son of Not This Time. This one was a $120,000 yearling purchase before the sire got hot. The mare was an unraced daughter of Ghostzapper, but the 2nd dam was multiple graded stakes winner Capote Belle. The trainer is Kelly Von Hemel who has been a solid 20% winner at Oaklawn and Prairie Meadows. This horse hopped at the start, and had some traffic issues finishing 5th.

This is a new idea. I have always wanted to keep a list of horses to watch. They will combine interesting breeding and usually be trained by guy/gals that can win at a price. These are not horses I want to claim, but rather horses I want to bet at some future point.

IH#1 = Drop Anchor – Black Coronas by Curlin $90,000 yearling FTK

This horse broke his maiden at 13-1 for Ken McPeek at Ellis last August. McPeek is one of the great long shot trainers of our generation. He wears dark glasses on cloudy days. He won with this horse off six very slow works, including 1:04 just 12 days before the race. His owners had paid $90,000 (18x the stud fee). Anchor Down is a 3rd tier son of Tapit that I have some interest in. The mare is by Curlin, and was not much of a horse, but the 2nd dam was a stakes winner routing on turf.

He is dropping into a 6f sprint for $50,000. He is being ridden by Robby Albarado who in 0 for 48 at the meet. (it ended up being C. Lanarie) This must be a prep. Let’s watch him today, and be ready to bet him in the future.

McPeek has solid ROI’s on dirt, and in claiming races, but is poor off 60-180 day layoffs.

He went off at a tepid 12-1. The horse broke slow and Lanarie hardly tried. He ran with some interest at the end, but Lanarie did not want to risk his life going up the rail. Resident beauty/handicapper Acacia Courtney pick him for second. She said he looked like a small sprinter. He is not the most mature horse, and small is accurate. Certainly looks like he can go two turns.

The partnerships were much more active on day 2. Let’s sort out the winners and losers.

Winners:

1. All those that chose not to participate: notably Eclipse, Ironhorse, Zilla and many others. I appreciate their price discipline
2. Dare to Dream bought two below median horses, an Upstart and an American Freedom. I really like the AF, and if I was not waiting for yearlings I would probably invest here
3. I like the $60,000 Klimt that Pewter bought, nice price for a 20.4 work (from Day 1)

Mixed Bag:

1. I love the horses that West Point bought, I hate the prices they paid. They bought my Lemon Drop Kid #362 for $300,000, and #562 a Ghostzapper from a Dynaformer mare for $375,000. Let’s give them credit for buying two turn horses.
2. Little Red Feather bought an interesting Mohaymen that worked 9.4 for only $160,000, and a strange Malibu Moon with a Chilean dam
3. Slam Dunk bought an interesting Mohaymen, I will have to learn more

Losers:

1. Kenwood bought another sprinter by Kantharos
2. Final Furlong bought a strange War Dancer for $50,000
3. Bona Venture got back in the game, but paid a lot ($150,000) for a 10.1 Connect
4. I like the $140,000 Dialed In that Myracehorse.com bought, not thrilled by the $270,000 Flatter, and really confused by the $575,000 Kantharos they bought with Spendthrift

What did I just watch?

In the end it felt like this sale was much more of a “select sale”. I was very surprised by the strength at the bottom end of the sale.

Take hip #557 near the end of the sale. None of the Classic Empire’s worked very fast, and this one worked a very horrible 10.3. Yet a smart buyer bought him for $70,000. Why? It almost feels like they had wanted to buy a Classic Empire yearling, and gave this horse credit for just showing up. I have dozens of example like this. The Temple City I liked but worked a slow 10.2 still sold for $42,000, same thing for the Keen Ice that worked 10.2 and sold for $40,000. These prices were strong despite the lack of the Korean buyers.

In the end average and median ended up 35% to 40% higher than last year, and buybacks fell from about 40% to 20%. There were also fewer “mysterious withdrawals”. It was clearly a “bull market” for horses. The prices at the high end were not that surprising, except maybe for the prominence of the Japanese buyers.

I was thrilled with the two horses I “bought” on the first day. Both were bought with price discipline, and the real buyers were smart folk. Clearly the second day buys were “chasing” a bull market.

1. #195 – f – Lea – Sassy’s Dream by Flower Alley – 3/14 foal – $20,000
2. #179 -c – Shaman Ghost – Repossee by Officer – foaled 5/9 – $45,000
3. #448 – c – Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo, 3/23 foal – $120,000
4. #461 – c – American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000

Other things of note:

1. The Japanese bought the 9.4 American Freedom for “only” $160,000 early in the sale #41
2. Spendthrift paid $550,000 for the Violence by LDK mare that worked 9.4, #48
3. The median price for the 9.4’s was $190,000, making my guess of $120,000 look silly
4. The 9.4 Midnight Storm sold for $240,000 to my new friends at DJ Stable
5. The 9.4 Gormley sold for $550,000
6. The sale topper was a $750,000 daughter of Practical Joke
7. Both 9.4 Into Mischief’s sold for “only” $500,000 to the same Japanese buyer
8. The 10.0 were a mixed bag, a $550,000 Munnings, a $500,000 Candy Ride, a $300,000 Tonalist, a $290,000 Connect, but also some bargains with 20 selling for less than $100,000
9. My favorite 10.0 was $130,000 by Patrick Biancone for a Gormley with nice distance pedigree
10. The big surprise to me was 25 horses that worked 10.1 sold for $100,000 or more, 43 sold for less than $100,000, putting the median about $75,000, more than twice my best guess before the sale. This is where the “inflation” occurred. Given the high number of 9.4 and 10.0, these 10.1’s could have been 75th percentile works.
11. The were 11 works of 10.2 or higher that sold for $80,000 or more
12. The median for the 20.4 and better works was $250,000, so my American Freedom was a median buy, the median for the 21.0 was $190,000, and the median 21.1 was $100,000

On day one of the Ocala sale I stayed with my discipline and “bought” two value oriented horses.

On day two of the sale I got into the spirit of things and spent money like the “cool kids” do. Valuation be damned, I want the horses I want. I hope this will be a good lesson on why this is a bad strategy, but let’s give it a try.

Larry Hirsch got and MBA from Wharton and then ran major companies like Centex and Eagle Materials. He seems like a rational man. Today he paid $260,000 for a son of the unknown stallion American Freedom. By my calculations that is 43x the stud fee.

Why would he do such a thing? Maybe he has too much money, and lighting it all on fire would create a big pile of ashes that would be difficult to clean up.

Or maybe Mr. Hirsch noticed the very fast work of 20.4 and the great looking walking video that showed a long bodied horse that in anything but a sprinter. Maybe he noticed the pedigree which adds such stamina influences such as Chester House, With Approval, and Hawaii to AP Indy and Pleasant Tap on the sire’s side. Maybe he noticed this horse worked fast despite being born on May 12th.

I hope Mr. Hirsch found the winner of next year’s Kentucky Derby.

#461 – c – American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000

—————————————————————-

As I kind of expected the son of LDK at #362 went way past my price range. In fact it was my friends at West Point that bid him all the way to $300,000. To me that was way too much for a horse that worked 10.1. I guess that the $300,000 reflects the fact that this horse could become a sire if he has a great career. There are no sons of LDK at stud, and there are not many left. Maybe that is a great strategy, but for now I want to focus on fast horses and not the stallion business.

My backup plan included hip #448. This son of Maclean’s Music sold for $120,000. The work was an OK 21.3, but given all the Euro turf breeding on the dam side (Galileo, Sadler’s Wells, Danehill) a slow time can be expected. What happens when you mix Maclean’s Music with turf horse? That’s is what we will find out. Let’s hope for another Cloud Computing

#448 – c – Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo, 3/23 foal – $120,000

The real world buyer was an agent name Kim Valerio. She has bought horses in the past for Mike Dubb. In an interview, Ms. Valerio says she like long horses with big shoulders, so do I. I am not thrilled by the price, but as the say in the movies:

Sometimes you just have to say “what the ………..”

Maybe next week I can buy some Into Mischief’s for $1,200,000 at Gulfstream. Only kidding, I will return to my value seeking methods for the April Ocala sale.

I am still looking for a $100,000 horse, and a $200,000 horse. I was disappointed not to get my Midshipman #178 yesterday.

Today I will pay up to $100,000 for #362. I know that this son of LDK was a $80,000 yearling, so I am ready to be disappointed. He is a full brother to multiple graded stakes winner, so their is not much mystery here. I just do not want to pay up for a 10.1 work, so I am willing to pay median plus 20%, but no more.

The backup plan is #560 by Cupid, or maybe #425 by Dialed In, or #440, or #448

The horse I really want is #461 and here I am willing to go over my $200,000 budget. I know this son of American Freedom was a $110,000 yearling, so am ready to pay up for the 20.4 work.

American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy with Pleasant Tap on the dam side. His yearlings sold surprising well for a $6,000 sire. #461 was the second most expensive AF.

The dam is a granddaughter of the great 1 1/2 horse Chester House, even though Divine Park was more a miler. The second dam was by distance sire With Approval, and the third dam by 1 1/2 mile champion Hawaii.

The pedigree shouts stamina, and so does the walking video.

He worked 20.4 despite being a May 12th foal.

I will not be outbid, he says confidently with fake money. Let’s see what the price is for American Freedom second greatest son. The backup plan is #562, the Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer mare, or an expensive Gormley #531, if the bidding goes over $300,000 for #461.

I guess I will go to $40,000 for my favorite turf horse #472

One thing that I learned from the sale yesterday was how fast things move. The pace is 30-40 horses per hour. There are no breaks, and you cannot call a timeout.

As prices were surging it was very difficult to quantitatively measure how things were changing. My guess of up 25% turned out to be accurate, but if I were playing with “live ammunition” I would want a better measure.

You really need as estimate of value for every horse in the sale, and well developed list of comparable horses that sell before your choice.

Prices were up sharply. The average was up to $114,000 from $90,000 last year and the median was up to $62,000 from $50,000.

Prices were up 25% despite the fact that the quality of the horses declined. Last year I think some horses came to this sale because they knew the Gulfstream sale would be canceled. This year the Gulfstream “select” sale was expanded to 186 horses.

Maybe the quality of horses improved because sellers wanted to sell while the stock market remains at all-time highs. I do not buy this explanation.

I was very surprised by some of the prices paid for horses that worked 10.1. Even with the Korean buyers not participating, the low end of the market was very strong. The buyback rate fell from roughly 40% to an almost unheard of 20%. It seems there were also fewer “mysterious withdrawals”, not counted in the buyback statistics.

In short, folks got tired of sitting at home and just wanted to buy something – anything!

——————————————————————————————-

I was thrilled with my 2 “selections”.

I got a 10.0 (top 20%) work for less than the median price paid. Not everyone is a Shaman Ghost fan, I understand. I was excited by the real buyer being the same guys (D.J. Stables) who are going to the Kentucky Derby with a $55,000 son of Ironicus (Helium).

#179 -c – Shaman Ghost – Repossee by Officer – foaled 5/9 – $45,000

I would prefer more stamina pedigree on the dam side, but Officer was a son of Bertrando who set a new track record at 1 1/4 miles in the G1 Pacific Classic. The 2nd dam is by Tale of the Cat, who was more of a sprinter, but did run a Equibase fig of 117 is the 1 1/8 mile G1 Whitney Handicap.

The photo of this horse shouts “two turns”, so I will live with that.

I was also get my daughter of Lea that worked 10.1 for only $20,000. Here the dam adds Flower Alley, Theatrical, and Seattle Slew. The mare ran a solid 94 Equibase fig at 1 1/16 miles for Ken McPeek.

#195 – f – Lea – Sassys Dream by Flower Alley – 3/14 foal – $20,000

The real world buyer is SAB Stable, they are a solid 9 for 42 in Maryland. I know this horse is not exciting, but neither was Brooklyn Strong.

I could not find either a $100,000 or $200,000 horse I really like because i would pay $210,000 for the son of Midshipman #178 that I really liked.

It was a fairly slow day for the partnerships at Ocala day 1:

1. West Point bought two very sprint oriented horses, a More Than Ready and a Dramedy, pass quickly on both
2. Eclipse bought a modestly interesting Cupid for $100,000 that I will at least consider
3. Little Red Feather bought two interesting horses a Mohayman and a Malibu Moon that were reasonable, but expensive
4. Kenwood bought a very sprint oriented Jimmie Creed for $75,000, pass
5. Pewter bought a $60,000 Klimt that I will at least think about. It had a nice 20.4 work. $60K is a big buy for Pewter. The dam was a Finger Lakes sprinter, and Midas Eyes was a sprinter. I thought about it, pass

Everybody else was quiet. No Dare to Dream, and surprisingly no Myracehorse.com

Prices seem to up at least 25%. What should I do. I certainly need a better way to monitor prices. Should I change my budget, or keep my discipline. I the real world this would be a tough call.

I will not pay more than $100,000 for my Midshipman, or more than $60,000 for my Shamen Ghost and $30,000 for my Lea.

Outbid for my Midshipman, could not go to $210,000, sold to High Point Bloodstock

I did get my Shaman Ghost for $47,000, hope its not an RNA, but it is an RNA, dirty rotten bastards, not a fan of Nice and Easy Thoroughbreds.

Then through the magic of the private sale, the buyer of the Shaman Ghost colt become D..J. Stables. They are the owner of Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium. I could not hope for a better buyer. DJ paid $55,000 for Helium (a son of Ironicus) at a yearling sale. This is really the best I could hope for out of this sale. A real experienced racing operation landed on the same horse I did out of 560+ horses.

I did get my Lea for $20,000, hope its not an RNA. Hooray, the real buyer is SAB Stables which is a nice 9 for 42 in Maryland.

I will pass on #232 the Midnight Storm. he is a cribber, went for a crazy $140,000, pass

I am a little tempted by #234 a Gormley out of turf mare, maybe for less than $120,000, went for $130,000

Maybe next year I should stream the sales live.

Last June I had a great feeling of excitement before the sale, now that feeling is more one of confusion and concern.

Starting about 5 minutes late at 11:05 Central Time.

1. #1 – $150,000 how much for a 20.3 Speightster?, iffy mare, – kind of small looking filly $120,000 disappointing
2. #2 – $50,000 – how much for a 10.0 Outwork? – BOOM $200,000 that a lot
3. #3 – how much for a 21.3 Tiznow, maybe $30,000 – $90,000 pretty good for 21.3
4. #4 – $50,000 – boring pedigree, but a fast work of 10.0 – $25,000 not much for a 10.0
5. #6 – $25,000 my Klimt/Dynaformer, worked 10.1 – $42,000 more than I expected, but not much
6. #7 – $100,000 a 10.0 Lord Nelson – $95,000 very close guess, they love sprinters
7. #8 – $150,000 nice PON with a stakes mare, a 10.1 work – the first mysterious withdrawal
8. #10 – $500,000, the first IM, solid mare 9.4 work – $500,000 on the internet, right on the head
9. #11 – 10.2 Goldencents ?? – $42,000 not bad
10. #12 – $40,000, how much for a 10.0 Gone Astray – $35,000 very close
11. #13 – Daredevil 10.1 – $17,000
12. #14 – More than Ready 21.4 – $175,000 big price for a slow work
13. #15 – $50,000 how much for a pure sprinter Jimmie Creed 10.0? – $130,000 a lot for sprinter
14. #16 – Congrats 22.1 – $18,000
15. #17 – $60,000 a nice 10.1 Bernardini – $100,000 nice price
16. #19 – $100.000 will they pay up for a 10.1 Malibu Moon – cribber, $145,000 nice looking
17. #20 – 10.2 Lord Nelson – $70,000 very much for a 10.2
18. #22 – $150,000 a 20.4 Bernardini – $250,000 nice price
19. #23 – $150,000 a 20.4 More Than Ready, pure sprinter pedigree – $310,000 big price for sprinter
20. #25 – $30,000 a 10.1 Connect with little pedigree – $160,000 crazy price for a 10.1
21. #26 – $150,000 a 10.0 Frosted- $195,000 nice looking
22. #27 – $400,000 a 9.4 PON – $375,000 very close
23. #29 – $50,000 a 10.0 Holy Boss? – maryland bred, $75,000 ok
24. #30 – $100,000 a 10.1 Twirling Candy – $290,000 huge price for a 10.1 , TC is hot
25. #35 – Connect – $7,000
26. #36 – $100,000 a 9.4 Carpe Diem – $70,000. ??? must be a problem
27. #37 – Bode 10.3 – $25,0000 internet
28. #38 – Bode 10.1 – $27,000
29. #39 – $5,000 my 22.2 Gormley – $50,000 wow wow wow for a slow work
30. #40 – $120,000 a 10.0 Tonalist – $300,000 let the good times roll, way above my price expectation, they do not hate Tonalist
31. #41 – $200,000 a 9.4 American Freedom – $170,000 still plenty for a AF
32. #44 – $40,000 a 10.1 Cairo Prince – $80,000 out of my price range
33. #45 – $50,000 a 10.0 Grazen, maybe an indicator for my SG – $80,000 scary
34. #46 – Blame 10.1 – $50,000
35. #47 – Classic Empire 10.3 – $35,000 a lot for a 10.3
36. #48 – $250,000 a 9.4 Violence from a LDK mare – $550,000 BOOM big price
37. #49 – $200,000 a 10.0 PJ from a LDK mare – mysterious withdrawal
38. #50 – $200,000 a 9.4 Mohaymen – $165,000 ok, first 50 horses in about one hour
39. #52 – Runhappy 10.3 – $15,000
40. #54 – Mission Impos 10.0 – $30,000 maybe hope for my SG
41. #55 – Champ Pegasus 10.2 – $45,000 a lot for a 10.2
42. #57 – $150.000 a 20.4 Twirling Candy – $250,000 TC is hot
43. 58 – 10.2 american freedom – $45,000 still a lot
44. #59 – Empire maker 10.1 – $95,000 ok
45. #61 – Brody 10.1 – $70,000 no bargains
46. #63 – Exaggerator 10.1 – $70,00 no bargains
47. #67 – $100,000 a 10.0 Lord Nelson – $385,000 out of control
48. #68 – $100,000 a 10.0 Klimt – $40,000 must be problem
49. #69 – Outwork 10.1 – $50,000 ok
50. #70 – $150,000 a 10.0 American Freedom – $80,000 ???? maybe a issue
51. #71 – $30,000 a 10.2 connect – $90,000 Connects are selling
52. #72 – $100,000 a 9.4 Ocean Knight – $75,000
53. #76 – Uncap 21.3 – $60,000 no bargains
54. #77 – Connect 22.2 – $10,000
55. #79 – Outwork 10.0 – $4,000 ?????
56. #80 – $50,000 a 10.0 Union Jackson – $37,000
57. #81 – $15,000 a 10.2 Temple City – $42,000
58. #82 – bayern 10.3 – $32,000 no bargains
59. #83 – $250,000 a 10.1 Curlin – $430,000 BOOM
60. #85 – $400,000 a 9.4 IM but with a strange mare – $345,000 0k
61. #87 – Frosted 10.2 – $40,000 ok
62. #88 – Atriedies 10.2 – $11,000
63. #89 – $100,000 a 9.4 Fast Anna – $90,000 ok
64. #90 – $100,000 a 10.1 Union Rags, nice mare – $325,000
65. #91 – mr speaker 10.2 – $17,000
66. #92 – $150,000 a 9.4 Cupid – $160,000 almost a bargain
67. #93 – Uncap 21.2 $50,000
68. #94 – Speightster 21.1 – $30,000
69. #95 – $120,000 a 10.0 Munnings – $65,000 problems ???
70. #103 – Connect 10.1 – $75,000 no bargains
71. #106 – my crazy Exaggerator that worked 11.0 even went for $17,000
72. #107 – $500,000 a 21.0 Curlin – cribber – $190,0000. ????
73. #109 – PJ 10.1 – $200,000
74. #110 – $150,000 a 9.4 Unified – $400,000 wow
75. #113 – $120,000 a 21.1 PJ – $200,000 ok
76. #121 – $100,000 a 20.4 Congrats – $65,00 HOPE FOR MY MIDSHIPMAN
77. #124 – $75,000 a 10.0 Cupid – missing testicle $100,000
78. #135 – Midnight Lute with a 20.4 for only $80,000, HOPE FOR MIDSHIPMAN
79. #136 – $60,000 a 21.1 Mastery – only $32,000, SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE
80. #145 – $25,000 a 21.1 POE – $27,000 finally a bargain, nice looking
81. #146 – $5,000 my beloved Cairo Prince 22.1 – $40,000 WOW WOW WOW looking right past the extra slow work, looked big
82. #150 – $15,000 a slow 10.2 POE – $75,000 big price for a 10.2
83. #163 – $350,000 the 20.2 Unified – $530,000 reasonable
84. #164 – Connect slow 22.3 – $17,000 ok
85. #165 – $25,000 slow 10.2 POE – $32,000
86. #169 – a slow 22.0 Lea – $11,000 interesting
87. #174 – $50,000 a 20.4 Klimt – $60.000 HOPE FOR MY MIDSHIPMAN
88. #177 – $50,000 a 10.0 Social Inclusion froma LDK mare
89. #178 – $75,000 my 20.4 Midshipman – $190,000 NO HOPE, TOO MUCH FOR MY MIDSHIPMAN, DISAPPOINTING, CAN’T PAY 20X
90. #179 – $50,000 my 10.0 Shamen Ghost – $47,000 JUST THE RIGHT PRICE
91. #188 – $100,000 a 9.4 Cairo Prince – nice looking, $525,000 WOW
92. #190 – $15,000 a 10.1 Medal Count I like
93. #191 – $50,000 a 10.2 LDK
94. #195 – $15,000 my 10.1 Lea
95. #206 – $500,000 a 9.4 Nyquist
96. #211 – $250,000 a 20.3 flatter
97. #215 – $120,000 a 10.0 summer Front
98. #220 – $400,000 a 9.4 Nyquist
99. #224 – $350,000 a 9.4 IM
100. #232 – $100,000 my 10.0 Midnight Storm
101. #234 – $200,000 a 10.0 Gormley
102. #237 – $20,000 my 10.2 keen Ice
103. #238 – $200,000 a 10.0 constitution
104. #242 – $250,000 a 20.3 Liams map
105. #245 – $100,000 a 22.2 gun runner
106. #253 – $40,000 a 10.2 LDK
107. #271 – $200,000 a 10.0 Union Rags
108. #285 – $20,000 my 10.3 Astern

Should I join the Into Mischief craze? Practical Joke was ok around two turns, and here (#48), we add a LDK mare. The problem is the mare was never more than an allowance sprinter. The second dam was also a slow sprinter. The nick is A+. The interesting thing is the yearling sold for only $25,000 and the work was 10.0. Despite my love for all things LDK, I am talking myself out of this horse.

One thing I have not really done is spend to much time of the $40,000+ sires. Most of these horses will be out of my price range with even a ok work, but maybe not. One interesting one is #562 by Ghostzapper. The attraction here is the Dynaformer mare, bred along the same line as Barbaro (a Carson city mare). The work was a pedestrian 10.1. The pinhooker paid $130,000 as a yearling. Will he take a loss?

There are 8 Frosted’s that worked. #491 is by a Kitten’s Joy mare. The family adds Ghostzapper and AP Indy. This is a weird horse. This is an A nick. The work was 10.1. The mare was a decent miler. There is a lot of pedigree on sale here.

What to do with the Classic Empire’s? Eight worked, but none faster than 10.2. Is this a buy low opportunity?. I hate all the mares of the 8. Pass.

Is the shine coming off American Pharoah? What do you do with with #280. Nice pedigree, but worked 10.1. Was only a $52,000 yearling. Or #504?

Three Anchor Downs work 10.1. I like #374 from a Pleasant Tap mare. 4/19 foal.

None of the 3 Arrogates in the catalog even worked. Small danger sign?

The 2 Astern’s that worked were disappointing.

Eight Bernardini’s worked, but none faster than 10.1, nothing too exciting

Maybe I should be more excited about #44 by Cairo Prince. Worked 10.1. Dam brings Giant’s Causeway, Fu Peg, and Seattle Slew. a 5/10 foal, only a $20,000 yearling, maybe a bargain for $30,000. Not a horrible idea.

Of the 12 Connect’s that worked, only the sprinter dam’s ran fast.

Only one of the five Constitutions’s had a decent work

The Cupid’s were quick, still holding out hope for #560

There were 6 Empire Maker’s and the fastest was 10.1. Maybe #59, but in all honesty I would rather “pay up” for a $40,000 Cupid, than pay down for a $40,000 Empire Maker..

Several quick Goldencents to choose from. Still not a fan

3 quick Gormley’s will be too expensive, do not like the 10.1’s

The one Gun Runner was very slow 22.2

Do not like the 3 Honor Code’s

Maybe I should be more excited about Klimt.

Not thrilled with the Liam’s Map choices

One Lord Nelson worth considering #250

The question at these auctions is often:

How little should I pay?

and not the more obvious, How much should I pay?

This deserves some explanation.

I you are bidding on horse with decent pedigree and a premium work (9.4 or 10.0 this year) you really cannot expect to buy a horse for less than 4-5x the stud fee. If the bidding stops “too soon”, it might be a strong indication there is something wrong with the horse.

Can you really avoid paying “to little” given we should expect the seller to have a “false buyer” that will at least bid the horse up to its reserve? I wish I knew the answer to that question. In a perfect world you should have confidence in your own vet work, but maybe you should also be watching to see if other real bidders have the same opinion.

In reality bids from the internet, or from a shadowy figure in the back of the sale will often make it tough to know who you are bidding against.

In most cases this really only applies to horse with premium works. Horses with average works, or questionable pedigrees, might sell for 1-2x the stud fee if no one is paying attention. This is how Brooklyn Strong sold for $5,000 with a 10.2 work at Ocala last year.

Let’s see if I can find a horse where this principle applies.

What would I do if I walked in with $200,000, $100,000, $50,000, or $25,000. The idea is to buy one horse. For $200,000 my. goal is to win a G1, for the lower budget my goal is to earn the highest return on my money.

In reality I would be waiting for the April Ocala sale. My best ideas all worked too slow, but I want to go through the exercise of this sale anyway. It is interesting to note that the April catalog is not yet available, so you are almost forced to “buy now” rather that wait for an unknown later. I guess the real experts “know” what is coming by understanding who pinhooked which yearlings.

For $200,000 I would be concerned that I would not get either #48 or #49, so I might strike early with #40. It is tough to gage how much the cool kids hate Tonalist. This is only a C nick, but it is a a perfect plodder/plodder horse that works 10.0 despite being a 5/16 foal. Maybe I should be chasing the 9.4 Gormley’s, but I hate playing with the “cool kids”

Maybe I should wait for my Midnight Storm, but I am not that excited about that female family.

For $100,000 I am tempted to buy my Midshipman. Last year Ken McPeek paid $80,000 (the top selling Midshipman) for a Midshipman that has already earned $35,000. Maybe I am mistaken to think a 20.4 work will go this cheaply. I do not want to go too far past 10x the stud fee for a horse (Midshipman is a $7,500 fee). I can wait for #362, the LDK, if I miss here, or maybe #232 the Midnight Storm. I guess the problem will be if either #40, #48 or #49 goes this cheap.

For $50,000 I want to get my Shamen Ghost at #179. This remains a crazy idea that is inconsistent with my strategy. Sometimes it is ok to be creative! Maybe #362 would also fit here.

For $25,000 I want my sleepy daughter of Lea at #195. Maybe I should jump on #6 quickly, but I really like the Lea.

I do not have many ideas for the second day. I some ways not having to wait make things easier. i know I have to be ready for frustrating RNA’s and withdrawals. I wish I ha more ideas.

Actual price shown in bold. I guess as I approach this sale I really should have a guess for every horse just to judge how the sale is going. Mark me down as unprepared.

My guess in the median 9.4 will be $120,000

My guess is the median 10.0 will be $80,000

My guess is the median 10.1 will be $40,000

My guess is the median 10.2 will be $20,000

Just for fun I will make a guess on horses of interest:

1. #1 – $150,000 how much for a 20.3 Speightster?, iffy mare,
2. #2 – $50,000 – how much for a 10.0 Outwork? –
3. #4 – $50,000 – boring pedigree, but a fast work of 10.0
4. #6 – $25,000 my Klimt/Dynaformer, worked 10.1
5. #7 – $100,000 a 10.0 Lord Nelson
6. #8 – $150,000 nice PON with a stakes mare, a 10.1 work
7. #10 – $500,000, the first IM, solid mare
8. #12 – $40,000, how much for a 10.0 Gone Astray
9. #15 – $50,000 how much for a pure sprinter Jimmie Creed 10.0? –
10. #17 – $60,000 a nice 10.1 Bernardini
11. #19 – $100.000 will they pay up for a 10.1 malibu Moon
12. #22 – $150,000 a 20.4 Bernardini
13. #23 – $150,000 a 20.4 More Than Ready, pure sprinter pedigree
14. #25 – $30,000 a 10.1 Connect with little pedigree
15. #26 – $150,000 a 10.0 Frosted
16. #27 – $400,000 a 9.4 PON
17. #29 – $50,000 a 10.0 Holy Boss?
18. #30 – $100,000 a 10.1 Twirling Candy
19. #36 – $100,000 a 9.4 Carpe Diem
20. #39 – $5,000 my 22.2 Gormley
21. #40 – $120,000 a 10.0 Tonalist
22. #41 – $200,000 a 9.4 American Freedom
23. #44 – $40,000 a 10.1 Cairo Prince
24. #45 – $50,000 a 10.0 Grazen, maybe an indicator for my SG –
25. #48 – $250,000 a 9.4 Violence from a LDK mare
26. #49 – $200,000 a 10.0 PJ from a LDK mare
27. #50 – $200,000 a 9.4 Mohaymen
28. #57 – $150.000 a 20.4 Twirling Candy
29. #67 – $100,000 a 10.0 Lord Nelson
30. #68 – $100,000 a 10.0 Klimt
31. #70 – $150,000 a 10.0 American Freedom
32. #71 – $30,000 a 10.2 connect
33. #72 – $100,000 a 9.4 Ocean Knight
34. #80 – $50,000 a 10.0 Union Jackson
35. #81 – $15,000 a 10.2 Temple City
36. #83 – $250,000 a 10.1 Curlin
37. #85 – $400,000 a 9.4 IM but with a strange mare
38. #89 – $100,000 a 9.4 Fast Anna
39. #90 – $100,000 a 10.1 Union Rags, nice mare
40. #92 – $150,000 a 9.4 Cupid
41. #95 – $120,000 a 10.0 Munnings
42. #107 – $500,000 a 21.0 Curlin
43. #110 – $150,000 a 9.4 Unified
44. #113 – $120,000 a 21.1 PJ
45. #121 – $100,000 a 20.4 Congrats
46. #124 – $75,000 a 10.0 Cupid
47. #135 – $60,000 a 21.1 mastery
48. #145 – $25,000 a 21.1 POE
49. #146 – $5,000 my beloved Cairo Prince 22.1
50. #150 – $15,000 a slow 10.2 POE
51. #163 – $350,000 the 20.2 Unified
52. #165 – $25,000 slow 10.2 POE
53. #174 – $50,000 a 20.4 Klimt
54. #177 – $50,000 a 10.0 Social Inclusion froma LDK mare
55. #178 – $75,000 my 20.4 Midshipman
56. #179 – $50,000 my 10.0 Shamen Ghost
57. #188 – $100,000 a 9.4 Cairo Prince
58. #190 – $15,000 a 10.1 Medal Count I like
59. #191 – $50,000 a 10.2 LDK
60. #195 – $15,000 my 10.1 Lea
61. #206 – $500,000 a 9.4 Nyquist
62. #211 – $250,000 a 20.3 flatter
63. #215 – $120,000 a 10.0 summer Front
64. #220 – $400,000 a 9.4 Nyquist
65. #224 – $350,000 a 9.4 IM
66. #232 – $100,000 my 10.0 Midnight Storm
67. #234 – $200,000 a 10.0 Gormley
68. #237 – $20,000 my 10.2 keen Ice
69. #238 – $200,000 a 10.0 constitution
70. #242 – $250,000 a 20.3 Liams map
71. #245 – $100,000 a 22.2 gun runner
72. #253 – $40,000 a 10.2 LDK
73. #271 – $200,000 a 10.0 Union Rags
74. #285 – $20,000 my 10.3 Astern

Some ideas are so crazy it is difficult to say them out loud, or write them in a blog. This is one of those ideas.

I was able to go to a small yearling sale at Lone Star last year. The best looking yearling I saw at that sale was a son of Shamen Ghost. He sold for $32,000 (well above average for this small sale). SG had 22 yearlings sell last year for a median of $12,000. Those bad results put SG on a trip to Canada where he now stands.

Hip #179 is a nice long looking horse. His walking video is exactly what I like to see. I doubt anyone should trust my visual judgement, but you have to start somewhere. Despite being a 5/9 foal, this crazy horse worked 10.0. He was only a $7,000 yearling purchase. He is consigned by an operation called Nice and Easy Thoroughbreds.

The female family breaks most off my rules. The mare Repossee made 59 very forgettable starts sprinting in West Virginia. Officer was a speedball that was the 4 to 5 favorite in the BC Juvenile, but he was a son of Bertrando. The second dam was a nice Tale of the Cat sprinter that ran a 90 Equibase fig in her short career.. This is the mares first foal. The nick is rated a D, but there is not much data.

Maybe this is just the precocity of the dam showing through, and Ghostzapper was a sprinter at 3. But Shamen Ghost was a late developer, and this horse does not look anything like a sprinter.

Let’s see what they want to pay for a horse that has almost negative pedigree. I am glad I am not in Ocala because I might just just throw up my hand and keep bidding all the way up to say $75,000, but maybe I can steal him for $35,000 if nobody wants a Shamen Ghost. Let’s watch.

Let’s forget about price, and just pick my top 10 contenders to win next year’s classic 3 yr old races:

1. #48 – c – Violence out of a LDK mare and a multiple G2 winning 2nd dam. I would go to $250,000, will West Point or Eclipse? Worked 9.4
2. #41 – f – American Freedom, a grandson of AP Indy. is not a horse you expect to work fast. 9.4 is very good for this filly. 2nd dam is multiple G1 winner Lakeway. Let’s go to $200,000.
3. #531 – c – Gormley out of Storm Cat mare. Here the attraction is the 2nd dam a $1 million winner by Dynaformer. Let’s go to $200,000. Worked 9.4
4. #107 – c – Curlin, out of a Dynaformer mare, only worked 21.0, but that is to be expected. Let’s go to $400,000
5. #206 – f – Nyquist, but the female side adds AP Indy and El Prado. Might have to go $300,000. 9.4 work.
6. #49 – f – Practical Joke, but with a LDK mare mare that won $240,000. The best 10.0 work. Might need to go $200,000
7. #344 – f – Midnight Storm from a Holly Bull mare should not work 9.4, but she did. maybe up to $150,000 here.
8. #439 – f – Blame is under the radar. The dam adds Street Cry and AP Indy to a 9.4 work. Not more than $150,000
9. #503 – c- Connect was a little disappointing, but this one went 10.0 and the 2nd dam is a nice Silver Hawk. Up to $150,000
10. #178 – c – Midshipman is the underdog is this group. A fast 20.4 work might make me pay up to $150,000.

Last year there were 20% more horses, but only 10 worked 9.4, and only 45 worked 10.0.

Was the track faster this year? It it possible this was a better group of horses?

Let’s remember that the stock market was down 20% in the month preceding last year’s sale. However, we must also remember that the Gulfstream sale had been canceled. Where did those good horses go? My guess is they went to Ocala June or Timonium.

My best guess is that this might just be a better group of horses. However, it is entirely possible that the track was was faster, and it is only an illusion the horse are “better than last year”. Either conclusion is reasonable.

Last year only 55 horses had premium works (9.4 or 10.0), this year that number is 108.

The real puzzle is what to do with the 10.1’s. Recall that these times are not rounded a 10.1, a 10.1 could be 10.10 or 10.19. There is a big difference. It could be a top 33% work, or it be top 60 work. That is a wide range.

Another puzzle is how to view the 2 furlong works. Last year even the 21.3’s sold for a median of $100,000.

This years results:

1. 27 ran 9.4 – 8%
2. 81 ran 10.0 – 24%
3. 93 ran 10.1 – 27%
4. 84 ran 10.2 – 24%
5. 58 ran 10. 3 or worse – 17%

1. 3 ran 20.2
2. 4 ran 20.3
3. 13 ran 20.4
4. 10 ran 21.0
5. 16 ran 21.1
6. 8 ran 21.2
7. 11 ran 21.3
8. 12 ran 21.4
9. 8 ran 22.0
10. 6 ran 22.1
11. 7 ran 22.2
12. 7 ran 22.4 or worse

343 (76%) went 1 furlong, 110 went 2 furlongs

All ten of my top ideas were “blown up” by works that were too slow. What remains are ideas that are ok at best, and marginal at worst. There will be another 1500 horses at Ocala April to wait for, but it is still a good exercise to rank my favorite ideas:

1. #178 is the boring son of Midshipman that worked a “too fast” 20.4. Maybe I should be more excited? He has a great photo.
2. #195 could be the next Brooklyn Strong, I am sure no rational person has this daughter of Lea on their top 10 list, but I do. Is the 10.1 good enough?
3. #232 was a top 40 yearling idea, and he has a nice 10.0 work at Ocala. I wish the female family was a little stronger. In concept, I am still a Midnight Storm fan.
4. #179 is my crazy idea. He is a son of the little appreciated Shamen Ghost. The best looking yearling I saw at the Texas sale last year was a Shamen Ghost that sold for $32,000. This guy worked 10.0 and has a body that looks longer than normal. His look reminds of the We Miss Artie colt last year
5. #362 is a son of Lemon Drop Kid, that is a full brother to a graded stakes winer. Again is the 10.1 good enough? Now a question of valuation.
6. #6 is only interesting because the female family brings in Dynaformer.
7. #48 and #49 are conventional ideas that are worth thinking about, but most likely will be too expensive
8. #560 is a daughter of Cupid that will not be cheap after a 10.0 work
9. #40 is a daughter of Tonalist from a nice Curlin mare that worked a quick 10.0. Maybe i gave up on Tonalist too fast?
10. #195 will make me do more work on the Ohio stallion Medal Count. Interesting, but not really investable.

Mark Schwartz is my racing hero. Despite being a lifetime 0 for 26 at Penn National, Mark walked into last year’s June Ocala sale and left with a $5,000 son of Wicked Strong. That horse became Brooklyn Strong, winner of the G2 Remsen, and briefly on the Derby trail before being hit by an illness. He is now reported as trying to get enough works to run in the Wood Memorial.

In order to buy something for less than $10,000 let’s try to find a strong female family and a sire that nobody wants to buy.

How about hip #195?

The 3rd dam, Miss Turlington, was a daughter of Seattle Slew bred by Peter Brant. Her best race was at 1 1/2 on the turf. She produced a G3 winner going 1 1/8 on the turf.

This nice horse was bred to the great Theatrical. She sold for $150,000 as a yearling. The daughter was called Model Performer, she was not much of a runner, but she did produce 9 winners from 11 foals.

One of MP’s daughter’s was bought by Ken McPeek for $50,000, her name was Sassy’s Dream. Dad was Travers winner Flower Alley. She was best at 1 /16 on the turf, where she once got 2nd in a small stake at Churchill. She won $180,000 in her 28 race career. Not great, but very solid, and certainly a source of stamina.

Her first two babies were forgettable winners by Sidney’s Candy and Jimmy Creed. For some reason the breeders went to highly unsuccessful sire Lea. The median Lea yearling sold for just $6,000, and this horse sold to a small operation called 30-30 for $4,000at Keeneland as a yearling..

Lea was a late developer, winning the Donn Handicap at 4, but also winning a G3 turf stake at Churchill. I would expect this horse to work in a below average time.

This filly worked 10.1 at Ocala. She was a little green at the start of her work, but seems to accelerate nicely once she got going. On the second day 10.1 was a fairly good time. Of the 11 horses than worked before her, only one ran a 10.0, of the 11 horses that worked after her in the second group only one ran a 10.0. She was not spectacular, but she was above average.

If I could steal her for $10,000, I would be thrilled. Even for $15,000, she would be a bargain.

My bold prediction is that Mark Schwartz will be the buyer. She could be the next Brooklyn Strong.

There are a lot of similarities between investment business are the horse business.

I started in the investment business in 1982 for a now defunct bank called Interfirst. I was always a “value” investor that recommended stocks that well unpopular with Wall Street. When I recommended these unpopular stocks, it was very common for me to here the following comment from the guys I worked for:

“Of course that is a great stock idea, I intend to buy some for my own portfolio, but I could never buy it for my clients.”

Yesterday the TDN carried a story about the horse named Idol that the G! “Big Cap” at Santa Anita. In an accidental moment of total honesty one of the leading consigners (Top Line Sales) said this in describing Idol:

“While we had him, he was really laid back, just more of a two turn horse. Pretty good size, but didn’t have that big muscle hanging off him like some of these horses that we buy for the two year old sales. You could tell he was an immature, leaner-made type of horse that we would normally go buy for ourselves.”

These are the folks you are buying horse from at the two year old sales. they are selling you the horses with the big muscles, and keeping the good ones for themselves. I do find this comment surprising, but for a leading consigner to admit to this ‘out loud” a day before the sale is very interesting.

Idol is a son of Curlin, out of a stakes winning AP Indy mare. He is a classic plodder/plodder. He did not make it to the races until September of his 3 year old season, but not he is a G1 winner.

In fact Idol has just become my “idol”

It is not easy to find good two turn prospects in a sprinter sale. The first day of the under tack sale at Ocala destroyed many of my top ideas. Ideas #3, #4, #5, #6, and #10 all worked so slow they are not worth considering at any price (#1 was already withdrawn from the sale). It seems I have the unique ability to identify really slow horses. My third best idea was the only horse of over 100 to work in 11.0. Why would you put slow developing, route oriented, horses in the March Ocala sale? Because you want to get the out of your barn before they eat another single oat.

The track seemed to play a little faster this year. Last year there were only 10 works of 9.4 for the entire sale. Today alone there were 16 works of 9.4. That is a significant change. My first impression is that the 10.1 might be too risky this year , because worst cast they might be a 75th percentile horse. Last year 10.1 works were clearly top 50%.

What is left after this disastrous day?

1. #178 – This boring son of Midshipman worked a nifty 20.4 (only 2 of 35 were faster at 2 furlongs). This idea now shoots to the top of my list. Maybe this work will draw too much attention, or maybe nobody cares about Midshipman. I love the Thunder Gulch mare and the With Approval 2nd dam. Anything under $40,000 might be a bargain. A NY-bred.
2. #6. This son of Klimt worked a marginal 10.1. I love the Dynaformer mare. This is a 4/5 foal. Might be worth a second look for under $20,000.
3. #48 and #49 both had good works and will probably sell for $150,000+. This is a Vilolence and a Practical Joke out of Lemon Drop Kid mares. It will be fun to watch. If West Point or Eclipse buys either, it would be an interesting decision. These are “conventional” ideas, not part of my plodder/plodder strategy.
4. #40 is a well bred son of Tonalist that worked 10.0, could be interesting at a price under $60,000
5. #44 is a nice looking son of Cairo Prince that might be interesting, he worked 10.1 as the last horse of day 1. maybe under $30,000
6. Unified was the star of the day with a 20.2 (sale topper) and a 9.4
7. Cupid had a 9.4 and a 10.0
8. American Freedom had a 9.4 and a 10.0

My claiming choices have been pretty poor, but I have to keep trying. Today’s choice is pretty bizarre. I will take the #12 of today’s 6th at Gulfstream. Dale Romans is the trainer. The price is $16,000. Her name is Tetrahydro. Claiming maidens that are 14-1 on board, is not a great strategy.

This filly is the half sister of my #4 choice at the Ocala March sale. The 2nd dam is the great Possibly Perfect. This is most likely a crazy reason to claim a horse that has run 9 very miserable races, but maybe a route is what she really wants.

She has sprinted Beyer’s of 54, 52, and 50. If she were to win this race, is it impossible she could route a 65 Beyer in a $25,000 non-winners of 2 claimer? Not completely impossible.

My other claims:

1. Judicial Restraint has been a good lesson of why you do not claim off Chad Brown. He did win his next race after I claimed him. He was last seen finishing 7th for a $16,000 tag.
2. Ames Mister has two seconds and a third in maiden claimers since my mythical claim. He actually sold for $20,000 at the Keeneland mixed sale and is now trained by Greg Foley. Maybe he has been a breakeven horse.
3. Royal Suspect has won $26,000 in purses since I claimed him for $40,000. Maybe he will be better of the turf this spring. Last ran for $16,000.

We are now 5 days to the first works at Ocala. It is time to consolidate my rambling and pick 20 horses I really want:

1. #479 – My favorite is still this son of Honor Code. I want to buy another Honor AP. Both Donegal and Centennial bought an Honor Code’s last year as yearlings. I am a believer, but I need the right mare. Here the mare is a sister to Borrego. I would love to pay $50,000, but I would go to $100,000. Will any partnership go near this horse? Let’s wait and see. Already listed as out 3/6
2. #472 – I believe in the magic of Dynaformer. This 5/9 foal was $22,000 RNA as a yearling. Air Force Blue has been OK, but not exciting. Maybe I am trying to hard to find a long running turf horse, but I would love to own this one for under $50,000. Another disaster worked 21.3
3. #106 – I have talked myself into this “average” horse. Everything about her is “average”, nothing is spectacular. Maybe this is the right way to find a find a horse that others are overlooking. I am not a great fan of Exaggerator, but neither is anyone else. The mare was a “”hard knocker”, and she produced a nice horse. Not sure I want to pay more than $50,000. Worked a miserable 11.0
4. #146 – I really believe that Cairo Prince is an overlooked sire. This is first crop with better mares. The 2nd dam here is a superstar. I will consider other CP’s, but this is the one I want for less than $50,000. Worked a miserable 22.1
5. #164 – I wanted to buy the Connect that West Point bought as a yearling, but chickened out at the last minute. There are plenty to choose from here, but this one brings AP Indy’s son Bernardini as the broodmare sire. This one might be cheap for less than $100,000. Worked a miserable 22.3
6. #81 – I am a Dynaformer addict. This son of Temple City (Dynaformer’s son)is my bargain basement special. She is this year’s Brooklyn Strong. Only $7,000 as a yearling, I want to steal her for less than $20,000. Went a too slow 10.2
7. #237 – This is the ultimate plodder/plodder. Keen Ice has already bee declared a commercial disaster, so the value guys (like me) cannot resist. The mare was a solid horse and produced a very nice horse. Let’s pay no more than $35,000. Went a predictably slow 10.2, not a good result
8. #435 – The more I looked, the more I liked Cupid. He won at 10 furlongs, and the mare here was by stamina influence Cozenne. Only a $20,000 yearling, so the price might be right. Worked a miserable 10.3
9. #502 – Let’s throw is one speed sire. Mastery could be really good, but I fear he will be too popular. Maybe this one will work slowly and sell for under $100,000. Did not even bother to show up.
10. #39 – I fear the Gormley’s will be to expensive, so will go with the strange Siphon mare that not many will appreciate. I am willing to consider other Gormley’s if the mare adds stamina and the price is right. Went a miserable 22.3
11. #178 – A very solid, but boring, son of undervalued Midshipman. The star of the day going 20.4, maybe attracting too much attention???
12. #285 – Maybe Astern can be stretched to get 2 turns, the dam by Tiznow got 1 1/8 on the turf, and the 2nd dam was a superstar. Creative or crazy? Very big horse, went a miserable 10.3
13. #464 – Maybe American Freedom is the right freshman sire. Not too exciting work of 10.2
14. #49 – Practical Joke with a Lemon Drop Kid mare. Under $150,000?? Went a solid 10.0, maybe overlooked?
15. #48 – Violence with a LDK mare. Under $100,000?? Went a very fast 9.4, too expensive
16. #409 – My favorite Unified. 2nd dam by Pleasant Colony. The only slow Unified, a very bad 10.4
17. #6 – Daddy is Klimt, but I believe in the Dynaformer mare. Worked an almost ok 10.1, consider
18. #232 – My favorite Midnight Storm. Went a great 10.0, almost too fast to get a good price
19. #190 – Medal Count is a son of Dynaformer standing in Ohio. Went an ok 10.1, consider
20. #195 – Lea gives us another bargain basement special. Went a reasonable 10.1, consider
21. #362 – Lemon Drop Kid needs a heir apparent. Went a reasonable 10.1, worth thinking about at the right price.
22. #560 – Cupid crossed with a Dixie Union mare is the same as Mohayman and Quick Tempo, an A++ nick, interesting, a $67,000 yearling?. A very nice 10.0, the magic of Dixie Union

One horse to use as a model for this sale is Dream Shake. DS ran a 96 Beyer in his first start, and today takes on Life is Good in the G2 San Felipe. TDN declared him a “Rising Star”.

Last year I was not that familiar with Twirling Candy during the June Ocala sale. I ‘discovered” him while preparing for the FT Timonium sale. I gave myself a “mulligan”, and looked back to the Ocala sale and chose Dream Shake from the 22 Twirling Candy’s offered at Ocala.

Dream Shake sold for $75,000, or just less than 2x his stud fee. He worked an above average 10.1 T Ocala. His mare ran a Equibase fig of 94 on her best day at Remington, but was very average at best. She was a daughter of stamina sire Street Cry, and the 2nd dam was top quality filly, who also produced two graded stakes winners. This is an above average pedigree, but not a spectacular pedigree. The nick was a D. He was an 4/15 foal. He was $32,000 yearling that was pinhooked by Foxpointe Thorooughbreds, and consigned by Cary Frommer

Here was him photo:

I can’t make the link work, but is worth the effort to see the photo.

1. Go to Ocala Sales website and go to “auctions”, slide down to “sales results”, and then find the Spring 2020 sales results
2. click on the “sortable sales results”
3. find hip #1008, and go the photo, you can also watch his breeze

This is what a good horse looks like as a 2-yr old in training. Note that Dream Shake is not real mature looking in this photo. He does have nice “long” look to his body. He is not a sprinter. He did not race until February of his 2 year old season.

Dream Shake is what I would call a “realistic” model. Maybe $75,000 is the “sweet spot”. This is the same price Dare to Dream paid for Quick Tempo.

——————

Obviously the “miracle” model is Brooklyn Strong. He was a $5,000 purchase out of completely disrespected sire Wicked Strong. Mom was a daughter of Medalglia d Oro, and ran a 90+ Equibase fig going 1 3/8 miles on the turf.

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Let’s look at last year’s March Ocala sale. Things were a little different because the FT Gulfstream sale was canceled last year. The stock market is up about 50% from the time of this sale.

681 horses were in the catalog last year:

1. 10 horses went 9.4, all 10 sold for a median of $150,000
2. 45 horses went 10.0, 30 sold for a median of about $100,000
3. 100 horses went 10.1, 72 sold for a median of about $60,000
4. 93 horses went 10.2, 57 sold for a median of about $30,000
5. 71 horses went 10.3, 27 sold for a median of about $15,000
6. 29 horses went 10.4, 15 sold for a median of about $15,000
7. 32. horses went 11.0 or more

100 horses went 2 furlongs, or about 22% of those that worked

1. 1 horse went 20.2 and sold for $650,000
2. 5 horses went 20.3, 3 sold for a median of $400,000
3. 7 horses went 20.4, 4 sold for a median of $$200,000
4. 11 horses went 21.0, 9 sold for a median of $150,000
5. 17 horses went 21.1, 13 sold for a median of $120,000
6. 15 horses went 21.2, 12 sold for a median of $100,000
7. 8 horses went 21.3, 6 sold for a median of $100,000
8. 12 horses went 21.4 8 sold for a median of $30,000
9. 8 horses went 22.0, 5 sold for a median of $40,000
10. 16 horses went 22.1 or more, 10 sold for a median of $8,000

204 horses did not work and were out

From the original catalog 30% are no shows, and 25-30% are RNA, so you need plenty of ideas to find a group of horses.

Note the premium price commanded by horses that at least try 2 furlongs

Maybe I have been too grumpy about the lack of turf horses available in the Ocala sale. The top horse on this list is certainly worth further consideration.

1. #472 – Air Force Blue – Dynarama – I have been disappointed with the results of AFB so far, but maybe I should be more patient. The dam is a daughter of Dynaformer and the 2nd dam was a very solid daughter of Theatrical. What more could you ask for? The nick is rated A. A 5/9 foal. This really should be a top 5 horse for this sale.
2. #81 The Temple City discussed in a previous post.
3. I guess a few of the Cairo Prince’s like #146 are solid choices
4. #285 – Astern – Tisbury – Maybe this is too creative, Astern was a great turf sprinter in Australia, but his pedigree says he could be more. Tisbury broke here maiden going 1/ 1/8 miles on the turf at Gulfstream. The second dam adds Giant’s Causeway, and the third dam is the superstar router My Flag. $42,000 as a yearling. Maybe brilliant, maybe crazy.
5. #145 – Point of Entry – Pepita – I love POE, but the dam here is shaky. She did produce a good turf horse out of pure dirt sprint sire (Five Star Day). Very risky.
6. #288 – Summer Front – Tiz Paradise – The second dam was decent turf horse. Very marginal
7. #233 – Hard Spun – Soresca – The dam brings lots of fancy Euro pedigree. RNAed for $75,000 as a yearling

On of the first articles I read was a report on “value sires” written by Chris McGrath at TDN. His leading value sire was Midshipman, the son of Unbridled Song that is now producing his 8th crop for only $7,500 a shot. He has 363 winners from 746 foals, which for a 3rd tier sire is pretty good.

Hip #178 adds a Thunder Gulch mare raced by the Firestone’s. She was very boring but eventually won over $100,000 in 21 starts, and was never in a claimer. She has produced 8 winners from 9 foals. That is pretty impressive. The 2nd dam was a decent runner and producer by stamina source With Approval

The nick is rated A++. Someone paid $27,000 for this guy as a weanling.

Maybe this is the kind of boring, low risk, horse that first time buyers should be looking at. I am sure that nobody is driving to Ocala to buy themselves a son of Midshipman.

Mastery will be a hot sire this year. The precocious son of Candy Ride is exactly what the cool kids are looking for.

I want to find the slowest offspring of Mastery, and hope I can get a bargain price.

Hip #502 is a son of an Ogden Phipps mare that could not win until she was 4 years old. She did run some mid-90’s Equibase figs. The nick with Candy Ride and Medaglia d’Oro is rated B+. The 2nd dam adds plenty stamina as a multiple graded stakes winner going long on the turf. The 3rd dam is by Seeking the Gold. How much better breeding can you hope for?

This one sold for only $62,000 as a yearling, so maybe he might only sell for $100,000. Let’s hope he works 10.2 and nobody cares.

The average Mastery yearling colt sold for $160,000

No idea is too stupid to consider. Here are a few wild ones:

1. #555 – Wicked Strong – Holy Roller – Last year Wicked Strong produced Brooklyn Strong at the Ocala June sale. Here the 2nd dam was a graded stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles. The nick is A
2. #229 – Flintshire – So Beautiful – Flintshire was a complete disaster, why is this horse even here?
3. #190 – Medal Count – Sakra – Medal Count is an obscure son of Dynaformer that stands in Ohio. The mare is an Indiana turf sprinter with 65 starts to her credit. All things Dynaformer deserve at least a look. Barbaro was from a Carson City mare, here the 2nd dam is by Carson City
4. #179 -Shamen Ghost – Repossee – Shamen Ghost is a sire that nobody else cares about.
5. #362 – Lemon Drop Kid – Aurelia – Full brother to a very nice horse, an $80,000 yearling
6. #195 – Lea – Sassys Dream – Lea has not been a good sire, but he was a late developer than won on dirt and turf. Here he gets a nice McPeek mare that was 2nd in the Edgewood, and has also produced a $100,000 winner. A $4,000 yearling
7. #6 – Klimt – Infinite Hope – A Dynaformer mare
8. #330 – Keen Ice – Spelling – The mare was 3rd in the Barbara Fritchie, and produced G2 winner, 2nd dam was a runner and producer. A $18,000 yearling. Keen Ice was a disaster at the yearling sale ($7,000 median). Not completely crazy??
9. #490 – Frosted – Famous Alice – The only Frosted I am even remotely interested in. The other mares are very sprint oriented. Very disappointing.
10. #435 – Cupid – Cozinetta – By far my favorite Cupid. Mare adds Cozzene and Seattle Slew. A++ nick. 4/12 foal. Worth considering. Cupid did win the Gold Cup at 10 furlongs. $20,000 yearling. This horse makes me want to rethink the Cupid that Pocket Aces bought.

OK, I admit it, I am a Dynaformer addict. I was a Barbaro fan (the greatest son of Dynaformer). I have cashed many tickets on late developing offspring of Dynaformer. I own 5% of a Point of Entry (another son of Dynaformer) yearling. I started in the partnership game by buying a son of Temple City (also by Dynaformer).

There is one lonely daughter of Temple City at the Ocala sale. She is hip #81. The mare was a solid Maryland bred that won over $200,000 in 24 starts. She earned an Equibase figure of 102 at 1 1/16ths miles on the turf at Delaware. She is by Devils Bag, which is not really a turf broodmare sire, but the nick is rated A++ by TrueNicks. The 2nd dam produced some nice horses, including Foufa’s Warrior that set a NCR at 1 1/8 of the turf.

I am not ready to give up on Temple City. Maybe I am crazy, but this might be my favorite turf horse in the whole sale.

This filly sold for only $7,000 as a yearling to a small operation called Six K’s Training and Sales. They have 5 horses for sale at Ocala. Maybe I could take this one home for $20,000?

Maybe what we should be looking for is the average horse. Maybe we should not be chasing the dreams of hot new sires like Connect and Gormley, or even Honor Code and Cairo Prince. Maybe we should be looking for for sires that are fading, but not complete failures.

Maybe that sire is Exaggerator.

He is a son of Curlin, so he could be a late developer. His broodmare sire is Vindication (the last great son of Seattle Slew). He was a late runner (a plodder), for 2nd tier connections, but did win the Saratoga Special and the Haskell. He was kind of a strange horse, but he is Curlin on sale for $15,000, instead of $175,000. His stud fee was cut from $25,000 to $15,000, but the guys at Winstar are not complete idiots. Exaggerator was the 9th rated freshman sire, but has moved up to 4th in the short 2021 year. Maybe his best offspring have yet to race.

Maybe we should be looking for average mares, that were bred to our unexciting sire,

Any mare with graded stakes running ability might just be too expensive. Those mares jump off the pedigree page and usually get bid to extreme valuations. On the other hand do you really want to buy a horse produced by a graded stakes winning mare for just $25,000? If you do, you better check because it just might be missing a leg.

Even more important you have to be careful of the completely unaccomplished mare. In the wacky world of equine bloodstock, this is exactly the type of mare that the Liz Crow’s of the world are looking for. They do not want to have to pay for pedigree, so they go out of their way to buy horses from unraced mares, or mares with short careers. They want to pay $100,000 for a horse that looks great, but the dam has absolutely no racing history. They also like to find “young” mares that have not produced any great horses so far. You might actually have to “pay up” for any mare that has produced a stakes winning offspring.

Maybe that average mare is also by a 2nd tier broodmare sire. The daughters of Giant’s Causeway and Bernardini will usually bring handsome prices even if the mare was not much of a runner.

Maybe we should be looking for a mare that:

1. Ran 47 times, with 7 wins and 10 seconds
2. Ran a 97 Equibase figure on her best day
3. Sold for a respectable $60,000 as a yearling, and $120,000 as a 2-yr old
4. Is by the decent stamina sire Mutakddim, a son of Seeking the Gold
5. has produced 4 winners from 5 foals, each winning at least $60,000
6. one daughter won a small California stake, and ran in the G1 Ashland

Mutakaway is in fact very average. She is not spectacular, but she is very solid.

If you ask TrueNicks you find the nick rated C, but you need to look a little further. To get enough data TN uses sons of Curlin mated with daughters of Mr. Prospector, this is a very broad group. It does include a guy named Vino Rosso, which is not bad.

Mutakddim had many great horses in Argentina, but only one great daughter in the US, the $1,000,000 winner Lady Tak. Who did thte smart guys at Hill N’ Dale breed Lady Tak to, why Curlin of course, and produced a nice filly named Casual that ran a 104 Equibase figure in her first start at Oaklawn.

Hip #106 at Ocala is a daughter of Exaggerator, out of mare named Mutakaway. She is consigned by a small operation called Black Type Stables. The filly was RNAed for $19,000 as a weanling, and $50,000 as yearling. Black Type has won 12 races in 69 starts, but did not race in 2020 and had one small winner in 2019. Maybe these guys want $100,000 or they will race her themselves, but maybe they are short on cash and would sell her for $35,000 if she only works 10.2.

This is a fascinating horse. Maybe this is exactly the type of low risk horse that a small buyer should be looking for. While the crowd is chasing the next Derby winner, maybe “average” is what I should be looking for.

These are the first mares bred to Cairo Prince when his stud fee was raised to $25,000. Let’s consider each vary carefully:

1. #320 – Warrior Girl by War Chant – mom 3rd in Doubledogdare and a good producer, 2nd dam by Trempolino, lost to the Fasig-Tipton sale, maybe too expensive??, D nick, sneaky good, $200,000 yearling
2. #146 – Perfect Cause by Giant’s Causeway – fantastic, 2nd dam was $1 million dollar winning Possibly Perfect, mom was not a runner but produced Donegal Moon (bought by our friends at Donegal for $220,000), D rated nick more work needed here because the nick for just Cairo Prince is A++, very confusing, $12,000 yearling
3. #467 – Drama Drama by Lemon Drop Kid – above average, mom was more of a closing sprinter despite her stamina breeding by G. Watts Humphrey, 2nd dam was a good horse and great producer, 3rd dam by Seattle Slew, plenty to like here
4. #325 – Wild Catomine by Milwaukee Brew, very solid, Milwaukee Brew was a great stamina horse, nick rated A but not much data, mom was 2nd in the Woodbine Oaks in only her 3rd start, maybe a late developer?? $2,000 yearling
5. #438 – Crumbs of Comfort by Pulpit – interesting, mom won at 1 1/8 mile turf allowance at Churchill and has produced solid horses, 3rd dam by The Minstrel, 4/12 foal, maybe a sneaky good stamina horse???, D nick but not much info, $17,000 yearling
6. #434 – Covey Trace by Stevie Wonderboy – reasonable, mom won the Charlestown Oaks and not much else, breeding a little suspect but mom could run, C+ nick, maybe, $25,000 yearling
7. #505 – Fought the Fight by War Front – mom an unraced full sister to Del Mar Oaks winner Summer Soiree, A++ nick, worth considering, $8,000 yearling
8. #44 – Lassie’s Landing by Giant’s Causeway – very high risk/high return, the mare brings great broodmare sires Giant’s Causeway, Fusaichi Pegasus, and Seattle Slew. A++ nick, if you believe in bloodlines, this is your horse, but if you want racing results go elsewhere, a horse that should be studied, May 10th foal, ????, $20,000 yearling
9. #188 – Sadie Be Good by Big Drama – pure sprinter dam, maybe a 7 furlong champion, what the cool kids are looking for, $110,000 RNA as a yearling
10. #486 – Factfull by The Factor – pass, mom was not much, but 2nd dam was nice producer, $4,000 yearling

I guess I would consider maybe the top 7 of the 10 Cairo Prince’s if they were bought by a partnership

We are now two weeks to the Ocala sale under tack sale. It is time to get prepared.

Let’s look at all the Honor Code’s being sold and try to rank them:

1. #479 – Ermine Slippers by El Prado – my favorite, the full sister to Borrego

2. #360 – Artisianal by More Than Ready – solid, but the MTR adds to much precocity, only a C+ nick, the dam did win a small stake at a mile for Pletcher and was a $270,000 yearling,

3. #421 – Classiest Gem by Dehere – ok, mom was unraced but has been an reasonable producer, the second dam adds Pleasant Colony, an A nick same as Take Charge Indy and Friesan Fire, worth thinking about

4. #496 – Flawless Diamond – marginal, mom ran one big race for Padua as a 3-yr old, has been an ok producer, this is her 15th foal? , B+ nick, May 1st foal, close to a pass

5. #444 – Dancinginthestreet by Street Boss – marginal, mom was bred by Darley but I am not a big Street Boss fan, 2nd dam a decent French horse, only a C nick, full sister already in Panama?, pass

And then at Gulfstream two weeks later and probably more expensive

1. #131 – Inclination by Victory Gallop – mixed, maybe I should like VG, but only a C+ nick, and mom has produced sprinters, very marginal
2. #144 – Marketplace by Stormy Atlantic – ???, 2 x 3 to AP Indy, 3rd dam a superstar, very strange, not willing to consider

I guess the real question is will I know what is in the April Ocala sale before the March sale begins? I really wish I had a better 2nd choice for my Honor Code

As a retired golfer I must admit that I frequently took mulligans during practice rounds. I will take another one right here before Jackie’s Warrior runs in the Southwest.

Maybe I gave up too early on the Maclean’s Music story. The main evidence that MM’s can get two turns is Cloud Computing. This sire was the focus of my June Ocala sale, and the results have been horrible. I mythically “bought” two MM’s at that sale, and neither has even started so far. MM did not have a good year with nothing really running other than Jackie’s Warrior. But Distorted Humor is a difficult sire to categorize. He seems to get mainly sprinters, but he also produced Drosselmeyer.

Maybe Jackie’s Warrior was just a young bully, and now his classmates have caught up in size. But maybe JW’s only mistake was chasing a crazy pace in the BC Juvenile that no horse could withstand. As I think about MM before this afternoon’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, I get that gnawing feeling that maybe I gave up too soon on him. I did get JW at 17-1 in the first Kentucky Derby futures pool, we will if that was a good bet in a few hours

So I want to add one more expensive MM to my list of top 10 yearlings fron the Keenland sale. Let’s add:

Maclean’s Music- Dazzling by Galileo (hip #1326) $100,000

Adding a Galileo mare and a Danehill 2nd dam is the stamina influence that MM should need. The buyer was a pinhooker called Quarter Pole Enterprises, and this horse is in the Ocala March sale.

My friendly West Point representative called yesterday. I told him I was 80% sure I was waiting for yearlings, but I would be watching for any unique 2-yr olds that might catch my eye. What am I looking for?

1. I am still mesmerized by hip # 479 at Ocala. I love the Honor Code that Centennial bought as a yearling , and would like to find one I can believe in. I would certainly consider any Honor Code a partnership purchased.
2. I would strongly consider any Cairo Prince that a partnership bought. This is his 4th crop, but I think this is his first crop with better mares. This is Pioneerof the Nile at a discount. Maybe this is just being too much of a contrarian, but I think the idea has merit.
3. I do not want to forget the idea of Midnight Storm. This is my ideal sire. He is either turf or dirt, with a great deal of stamina and soundness. Again P of N at a discount. He might not get early runner, but I am willing to be patient. Will any partnership buy a Midnight Storm? I doubt it, but let’s see what happens
4. I guess I will consider any Connect that gets bought by a partnership. The dam would have to add stamina, but if I can get Curlin at a discount I might take a chance. I still like the Connect that West Point bought as a yearling.
5. I will consider any Gormley with stamina oriented dam. This is Malibu Moon at a discount. I do not to pay up for one that works 9.4 or 10.0, but at the right price I might take a shot
6. I would consider a Mastery at the right price, but I think they will be too popular. I guess the same goes for Classic Empire

Last year at this time I had no idea what I wanted from a horse bought by a partnership. Now I have a very specific focus. I am very willing to wait for yearlings in September. I also hate to buy horses when the market is at all time highs.

Connect is a sire I want to really focus on this year. Let’s hope he is a slightly quicker version of his father Curlin. When I look at the Curlin’s in the FT sale, I see some horses I would really like to own. However, the $175,000 stud is not going to permit me to buy one. So at $15, 000 Connect is the alternative. His female family adds some Holy Bull and Raise a Native to the pedigree page.

The world was better place when Vino Rosso won the BC Classic in 2019. He was the ultimate plodder sire/plodder dam (by Street Cry). No doubt that 2020 was the year of sprinter Into Mischief, but 2019 was a year for the plodders. Vinno Rosso is a son of Curlin, out of an unaccomplished Street Cry mare, but the 2nd dam was a solid runner and produced Commissioner .

Connect himself was from an unraced daughter of Holy Bull, but again the 2nd dam was a solid runner and producer.

I was very temped to buy a son of Connect (Vindy City by Vindication now called Derecho Dandy) from West Point. I also passed on a nice Connect that Ironhorse Partners bought. I could still buy a solid Connect that Victory Racing Partners is offering (1% for $1,750).

Instead let’s look for a Connect with a slightly above average work at a training sale.

1. One to dream about is #60 at FT March. The problem is Machmer Hall RNAed this colt for $285,000 as a yearling in September. From a solid runner/producer by Unbridled’s Song, I think this guy might be too expensive.
2. Another that will most likely be two expensive is FT #104. From a unraced daughter of Unbridled’s Song, the problem here is that the 2nd dam produced a horse called Tiz the Law. Maybe no one will notice, but my guess is the price tag will be too high.
3. My favorite at Ocala is #164 (Lane’s End RNA for $95,000 as a yearling. The dam is unraced daughter of Bernardini, but the second dam was a very good runner/producer. Maybe this guy will also be to expensive.
4. Another solid choice is #503. The dam ran in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies and the 2nd dam was an above average runner/producer. Becky thomas bought this one for $75,000 as a yearling.
5. Maybe the more realistic buy will be #524. The dam is a unraced daughter of Paynter (a son of Awesome Again). Remember it was Curlin and an Awesome Again mare that produced Keen Ice. Not sold as a yearling.
6. Another that might be in my price range is #404. The dam was unaccomplished, but the second dam was by the great Pleasant Colony. Sold for $35,000 as a yearling.
7. Even the well bred #25 is worth thinking about. The third dam was 24 for 31 lifetime and won the BC Sprint in 1990.
8. There might be more to wait for at Ocala – April

I think the FT March sale (also called the Gulfstream Sale) will be too rich for me. It will be interesting to watch this sale to see what kind of prices are paid.

I attended this sale in 2009 and remember the striking physical appearance of the horses. They all seemed big. The all looked like they would become a Jackie’s Warrior size horse. I am sure there were exceptions, but I remember horses that looked like bodybuilders.

If you glance through the catalog, you do not find many great pedigrees, and even quite a few very bad pedigrees. I am sure the FT folks have been combing the farms looking for the most impressive physicals. There is so much money available, I really worry about horse being “over-prepped”. The works will be dirt as opposed to the synthetic at Ocala.

1. My favorite Gormley is #58, or maybe #44
2. My favorite Cairo Prince is #59
3. My favorite Connect is #60
4. My favorite Mastery is #33
5. My favorite Practical Joke is #81
6. If I had a spare $500,000 I might like #86 by Curlin, or #80 by Arrogate, #100 by Gun Runner, #83 by Medaglia de Oro, or #167 by Union Rags

Maybe any of the first 5 could sneak through for $150,000, but I am not sure I want to buy “at the bottom of the barrel”.

If you to be in the winners circle at Saratoga or Del Mar, this is your place to shop. If I buy a 2-yr old at all it will most likely be at Ocala in April.

Just as the Ocala march sales was coming into focus, the catalog for the Fasig-Tipton select sale was released. This sale is two weeks later starting March 31.

It is confusing because at least 2 of my better ideas for the Ocala sales are now in the FT sale. I assume they will go in the FT sale because it has much higher average sale price, but they are not listed as “outs” in Ocala.

The FT sales was not held last year and the horses went to either the Ocala sale in June or the FT Timonium sale a few weeks later. In 2019 the FT March sale was only 100 horses, 59 sold and 41 did not. The average price was $500,000 and the median was $375,000, only 4 horses sold for under $100,000.

This year FT March (also called the Gulfstream Sale) will have 184 horses). There are 13 Practical Joke’s, 8 Arrogates, 6 Into Mischief’s, 6 Gun Runners, 7 Nyquists, 6 Tapit’s, 6 Uncle Mo’s and even 3 Gormley’s.

These will be premium price horses. It will be fun to watch, but not really participate in. Maybe my Cairo Prince or Gormley get overlooked, but I doubt it.

It is hard to have a game plan until you see the works, but I have plenty of time so lets write one anyway.

You need plenty of ideas, because 50% will be out or withdrawn, another20% will work too slow to consider

1. In the real world I would most likely wait to see if I could get my price on #479. I love the Honor Code story, and this my type of female family. It would be hard to wait through 400+ horses, but that is what I would do. If a partnership buys this horse I will be an investor.
2. I would be tempted to buy either Cairo Prince #146 or #467 at the right price (maybe under $40,000), but I would hate to miss my Honor Code. (#320 now in FT March)
3. I would be very tempted by either #6 by Klimt, or #409 by Unified, for less than $20,000. These are not my main ideas, but they could be bargains.
4. Maybe a cheap Gormley is worth a look, like #49 by a daughter of Siphon (a $20,000 yearling). Any price around $20,000 might be a bargain. (the better Gormley’s are in FT March)
5. I am still interested in the 3rd tier sire idea, especially American Freedom a grandson of AP Indy from a Pleasant Colony mare. Maybe #464 that was RNAed for $47,000 as a yearling. Maybe #435 by Cupid from a long distance Cozzene mare, A++ nick
6. maybe the Midnight Storm #232, but here it might pay to wait for Ocala April for a better selection
7. Maybe the Practical Joke, out a Lemon Drop Kid mare will sell at a reasonable price #39
8. My favorite turf horses are #472 by Air Force Blue, or #288 by Summer Front.
9. Strange ideas, #374 Anchor Down, #425 Dialed In, #237 Keen Ice, #362 LDK, #551 Will Take Charge, #48 Violence

There are so many interesting first year sires, it is possible that some will get overlooked. Let’s run with that them and see what we find.

1. #6 – c – Klimt – Infinite Hope by Dynaformer. Let’s pretend Klimt is more than a sprinter, but anything combined with a daughter of the great Dynaformer might go long. The nick is A++. Maybe a crazy, but sound idea. Only a $7,000 yearling. I could pay $20,000 and go home happy.
2. #409 – c – Unified – Causin Commotion by Mineshaft. A++ nick. Nothing better than female family with AP Indy, Pleasant Colony, and El Gran Senor.. Only an $8,000 yearling. Could be a bargain.
3. #435 – f – Cupid – Cozinneta by Cozzene. I love the Cozenne and Seattle Slew bloodlines, A++ nick, April 12 foal
4. #277 – c – Lord Nelson – The Last Journey by Good Journey. Ten Strike loves their Lord Nelson, so let’s stretch him out with a great grand daughter of the great Nureyev. Only a C nick, but worth a try.
5. #289 – c – Mohaymen – Tiz the Mambo by Tiznow. Not thrilled by female family but, Tiznow and Kingmambo is OK. May 14th foal. C nick

Just for the sake of discussion let’s reduce my focus on stamina and value, and then try to find 5 interesting horses from the Ocala catalog that might win the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks.

1. #502 – c- Mastery – Exit Three by Medaglia de Oro. Mastery is my favorite of thee new speed sires. The mare ran a 97 Equibase early in her career, but had a hard time winning her maiden race. She was bred by the Phipps. The second dam was a multiple G3 winner, and produced a multiple G3 winner. The nick is rated B+. This was a $62,000 yearling, maybe we can steal him for $100,000.
2. #164 – c – Connect – Proper Mad by Bernardini – Let’s hope Connect is a quicker version of Curlin. The mare was unraced, but by the great broodmare sire Bernardini. The 2nd dam is a Will Farish bred that ran a 110 Equibase, and produced a $400,000 winner, another of her offspring produced the great filly Dunbar Road. This was a $95,000 RNA as a yearling. The nick is A++. From the estate of the late Paul Pompa.
3. #495 – c – Classic Empire – Film Idol by Bernardini. This is a high risk colt from a slow mare, that is once again a daughter of Bernardini. The 2nd dam produced the great $2,000,000 winner Film Maker. The nick is A+. He was RNAed for $27,000 as a yearling, so maybe a value at this sale.
4. #531 – c – Gormley – Green Eyed Cat by Tale of the Cat. Let’s dream a little. This was the most expensive Gormley yearling at $160,000. The dam is unremarkable, but the 2nd dam is the great $1,000,000 winner Critical Eye (a daughter of the great Dynaformer). The nick is a B. I believe in Gormley, this would be a nice horse to buy if money were no concern.
5. #49 – f – Practical Joke – Lemon Splash by Lemon Drop Kid. What would it take to get me to buy a horse by a son of Into Mischief? Only if the dam is by Lemon Drop Kid. This was only a $25,000 yearling, so maybe we could steal her early in the sale, with 13 Practical Joke’s yet to be sold. The nick is A+.
6. #48 -c – Violence – Lemon Belle – I am not a huge Violence fan, but a decent LDK mare and a great 2nd dam make this an interesting horse. B+ nick. $120,000 yearling, so will not be cheap.

These horses might be too expensive if they have a fast work, but if they have only an average work they could be interesting.

The pedigree goddess has spoken:

http://www.pedigreegoddess.com/Articles/Freshman%20Sires%20of%202021.htm

This is a very informative site. It has good descriptive thumbnails on each new sire, and important information about basic statistics.

Her list for top freshman sire is:

1. Practical Joke
2. Gun Runner
3. Classic Empite
4. Mastery
5. Klimt
6. Mohaymen

My list is:

1. Mastery (let’s go with the Candy Ride angle)
2. Gun Runner (obvious, but solid, Asmussen???)
3. Gormley (I like all things John Sheriffs)
4. Connect (a quicker Curlin?)
5. Unified (from Centennial)
6. Classic Empire

We both leave out the obvious Arrogate. She makes a strong point that Unbridled Song has not been a good sire of sires. It might be a bad sign that Classic Empire’s fee is already down to $17,500. I will continue to play against Into Mischief, so no Practical Joke for me.

This is a great class of freshman sires. There might be solid values at the bottom of the list.

I guess I feel the need to insert these occasional summaries so new readers do not have to go all the way to the beginning of the blog.

1. My horse racing experience begins in 1997 with the building of Lone Star Park in suburban Dallas, Texas. My hobbies had been golf and blackjack. I knew nothing about horse racing business until one day radio talk show host named Randy Galloway mentioned they had good food at the new simulcast facility. I was quickly hooked, and I saw my first live race when the new track opened in April.
2. It was very lucky that the marketing guys that sold our investment research had a champion filly (Biogio’s Rose) in that same year. I got to learn horse racing game from the perspective of an owner, not just as a gambler. I made a trip to Saratoga that summer, and heard Cot Campbell give a presentation on horse racing partnerships, and then watched the Saratoga sale.
3. I began to learn a little about the breeding business when Rosie was retired and my friends began to sell her babies. My main focus was on the gambling side, especially pick-6’s. I have read almost every handicapping book ever printed several times. I knew that groups like West Point and Team Valor existed, and always watched their horses with special interest.
4. In 2010 I became a part owner of Biogio’s Rose’s last two foals. Both had been RNAed after the financial crisis of 2008. Neither horse was very good, but I did get to stand in the winner’s circle at Keeneland when Biogio’s Gift won a $20,000 maiden claimer on a great ride by Julian Leparoux. We also learned it was no fun to be a 3rd tier owner in Mike Maker’s barn.
5. In 2018 I started to look at some of the partnership websites, and was getting on their mailing lists. West Point became a frequent caller, but I chose a smaller group called Dare to Dream because they had a Temple City colt for sale. I was fan of the sire, so I bought 2%. The horse was called Dynamite Answers, he had one work and developed breathing problems. He never worked again and after much medical investigation, he was called a total loss. So my first experience with partnerships was quite negative.
6. As the COVID situation began to set in I needed something to do from home. I started to write a blog about investing in horse racing partnerships on the first day of the under tack show for the main Ocala Sale (which had been postponed from April to June 1st.)
7. I started by watching the works, and then the sale itself. I selected a group of 20 “pretend” purchases, and began to track their progress.
8. My selection strategy was based on a “value” approach that I had used for 30+ years in the investment business. I was not chasing the expensive Into Mischief’s or Uncle Mo’s, but instead was looking for bargains among the Wicked Strong’s and Dialed In’s. The basic idea was to select horse with an average work, that might be expected to have a below average work because neither the sire, nor the dam, were precocious. I wanted to buy “faster than expected works.”
9. Just before the Ocala sale started I noticed that Dare to Dream was offering a “blind” partnership for a horse they would buy at the sale. I really liked the horse they had selected at the March Ocala sale, so i gave them another chance. On the third day of the sale they selected a son of Tapizar, that eventually was named Quick Tempo. The horse was a little “sprint oriented” for my taste, but he was a value selection. Tapizar was not a popular sire.
10. I also selected some pretend horses from the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale and the July Ocala sale. From that group, s son Twirling Candy named Dream Shake has become a TDN “Rising Star”.
11. I invested in 3 additional horses for $1,000 to $2,000 each. A Super Saver filly with Pewter, a Tonalist colt with Hibiscus, and a Tapiture filly with Dare to Dream.
12. Quick Tempo won his maiden race at Arlington on August 20th, but the race was mistimed so it was difficult to tell how good he was.
13. As the summer progressed I got on the mailing list of every partnership listed on the OwnerView website. I found about 40 partnerships from Starlight all the way to one horse groups.
14. I selected a group of imaginary yearlings from the sales in September. I built imaginary groups to “compete” with Donegal, Centennial, and Ten Strike.
15. I came very close to investing with West Point on a Connect colt, and Eclipse on an Air Force Blue filly yearling.
16. Quick Tempo won his first allowance race at Parx, and then finished a good 2nd to Chad Brown’s Highly Motivated on the Breeders Cup undercard.
17. Two of the pretend horses I selected from the June Ocala sale became graded stakes winners. A Dialed In colt trained by Peter Miller named Get Her Number won the American Pharoah at Santa Anita, and $5,000 son of Wicked Strong, named Brooklyn Strong won the Remsen at Aqueduct.
18. Quick Tempo won a small stake at the Fairgrounds, and was listed as a Kentucky Derby contender for 12 hours, before Dare to Dream told us he needed surgery for a chip in his knee. he will be back in June at the earliest.
19. I came close to investing in Ten Strike’s group on 10 yearlings, but could not quite pull the trigger.
20. I bought 5% of a Point of Entry yearling from a small group called Blue Streak, and bought 2% of a Frosted colt from Pewter. I now have 6 horses and a total investment of about $10,000.
21. I have learned a great deal about all the different partnership opportunities. I am very thankful that I started to write all this down in a blog. The writing process forces me to think clearly about my choices.
22. The 2021 season is about to get underway with the March Ocala sale. I hope to get out and meet some of the people involved in this crazy business in person if COVID protocols permit.
23. I am leaning toward buying yearlings, but maybe a bargain 2-yr old will be too good to pass up.

On February 7th Mike Piazza of Zilla Racing sent out an email with data for 25 partnerships for the years 2012 to 2017. I will not show the results because I am not sure if it was intended to be public information. If you are interested in this kind of information you should already be on the Zilla mailing list. Mike as many interesting things to say.

I cannot attest to the accuracy of the data. But I have no reason to suspect that Mr Piazza would send out incorrect information, he seems like an honorable guy. The data might not include some horse sales proceeds or claiming proceeds, but it also does not consider expenses or markups.

I think you can draw two conclusions from the data:

1. The expected loss from an average investment in a horse racing partnership could be as high as 75%
2. Less expensive partnerships provide better returns than more expensive partnerships (but have fewer graded stakes winners)

In all honesty I had hoped the numbers were better, but I always feared they could be this bad. I sincerely hope that making careful selections can improve your results. I am writing this blog to show what kind of results are possible.

I must also warn readers to use this kind of data with extreme caution. 40 years of investment experience have taught me that investment performance data must be used very carefully to draw conclusions about future results.

Investing in horses is very difficult. In the stock market you can just buy an index fund, I would not recommend that with horses.

It is entirely possible that horse racing is absolutely the worst investment you could possibly make. On the other hand horse racing is the only sport you can make a small investment and win the championship a year later. Try calling Jerry Jones and see if he will sell you 2% of the Cowboys (a bad example since they will never win another championship).

1. Dare to Dream is offering a blind purchase of a 2-yr old at the March Ocala sale. Given their success with Quick Tempo I should be a a buyer, but I have my reservations. I have been concerned about their management of my other horse with them Blonde on Tap. I really would have liked to try 2 turns before dropping the horse to $20,000. Patience is something I like to see. D to D expects to buy for $40,000 to $95,000, and the deal is already 70% sold out.
2. I came close to investing with Ten Strike, but the dirt speed emphasis kept me from investing this year. In general I like their approach to the business, but I could not get there with this group of horses.
3. Pocket Aces are offering 3 very solid horses at reasonable prices by Frosted, Unified, and Mastery. I need to do more research on these.
4. Victory Racing still has shares is a nice Connect colt and Street Sense filly.
5. I really like the horses Don’t Tell My Wife Stable bought, but the website shows no offerings
6. Zilla put out a very interesting e-mail about the performance of various partnerships from 2010 to 2017. I strongly you get a copy and evaluate it for yourself.
7. Blue Streak is my favorite small partnership. Our Point of Entry filly is newly named Ribot’s Valentine (she is 4×5 to the great Ribot).
8. Not much happening at West Point or Eclipse
9. The Wasabi Ventures horse have started racing at Charles Town
10. Dream Team Racing had their Effinex filly get a 3rd
11. myracehorse.com only offering shares in older horses right now
12. Bourbon Lane is offering blind partnerships for 2021
13. Bassett Stables sold out their Maclean’s Music deal
14. Bloodlines horses named Dixie Kitten and Noble Conquest working in Florida
15. Crown’s Way down to 3 horses
16. Bond offering an Honor Code they paid $30,000 for at auction, for $100,000, pass
17. Kenwood plans new offers in early 2021, still writes good e-mails
18. 3 of 5 Centennial horses still not working
19. Turf Stable offering shares in 3 reasonable horses (this one is new to me turfstable.com)
20. Let’s Go looks like a serious partnership group I have missed. They have a nice group of 3 new 2 yr olds that look similar to Centennial, but they have no info on what they paid for the horses, very strange.
21. Woodford and Bradley are the two partnerships that have websites that seem designed to discourage potential investors.

1. My favorite yearling, Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, is in this sale. Why is he here? Maybe the El Prado influence makes him precocious? He comes late in the sale at hip #479. A pinhooker paid $40,000. How much should I pay? Honor Code is my favorite son of AP Indy. El Prado was the sire of Medaglia de Oro and Kitten’s Joy. The mare was sneaky good, and the second dam produced Borrego.
2. There are 11 Gormley’s in the sale. I expected him to be precocious, but 11 is plenty to choose from. He is a son of Malibu Moon that has some stamina influences on the female side. #276 has Pleasant Tap as the broodmare sire. This is an interesting horse.
3. There are 10 Cairo Prince’s. This son of Pioneerof the Nile seems to be falling out of favor, so I want to find a value. This is the first crop where his stud fee went to $25,000. i like #146 and #320
4. I want to focus on some of the new “speed” sires, Connect, Unified, Practical Joke and Mastery. Maybe I can find one with some stamina and an average work. Maybe #164, 186, 409, 49, 202, 173, 378, 502
5. I want to focus on the 3rd tier sires. This was the key to finding Brooklyn Strong for $5,000 last year. Some candidates are American Freedom, Keen Ice, and Cupid. #472, 454, 461, 374, 285, 156, 535, 331, 425, 233, 237, 195, 362, 448, 178, 321, 553, 179, 177, 215, 288, 441, 199, 90, 263, 555, 551, 48, 435, 53, 559, 526, 289, 72
6. Midnight Storm is my favorite new sire, but there are only 3 for sale. I like #232
7. I still want to find a cheap Frosted, now that the type is gone, maybe #528 or 491
8. There are not many turf horses but I will still consider Point of Entry, Summer Front and Air Force Blue

It is fun to be looking at horses again.

I am not sure what to make of the March sale at Ocala. Last year West Point did not buy a single horse, and Eclipse bought only 2 (neither has started). Myracehorse.com paid $500,000 for an Into Mischief that has been a disaster. Very few other partnerships bought horses at this early sale. I get the feeling this is where pinhookers go to cut their losses early.

I invested in a Super Saver filly that Pewter bought at this sale, and she required 6 months of rest because she was not done growing. This is a story that deeply troubles me.

What are the motivations of the sellers in this early sale? Why not wait until mid April, at least with your better horses, for the main sale at Ocala?

On the other hand the Tonalist colt out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare was bought by Hibiscus in this sale. He was ready to go at Saratoga except for a freak stall accident.

My instinct is to stay away, but I still have to watch. There are 563 horses in the catalog. Maybe the next Derby winner is hiding in there,

It is time to make the real world decision to either buy yearlings, or buy 2-yr olds in training.

Philosophically I am 90% sure I want to buy yearlings, but practically I am only 70% sure I want to buy yearlings.

I do not like horses that are “rushed” to the track, so that pushes me toward yearlings. I am swayed by the arguments made my Don Little at Centennial, Jerry Crawford at Donegal, and Marshall Graham at Ten Strike, is favor of yearlings.

However, my results picking yearlings has been quite bad, and my ability to pick 2-yr olds in training has been quite good. In the real world Quick Tempo got to the Derby trail for a brief moment, and Brooklyn Strong and Get Her Number were cheap graded stakes winners.

I wish I could dismiss the 2-yr old sales, but I still think there might be value hiding there.

In the real world my plan is to hold my money to buy yearlings, but if the right 2-yr old comes along I still might invest.

I must admit that my negative outlook on the economy is pushing back my desire to buy horses with the stock market at an all-time high. I want to se a little pain and suffering.

Of the 20 horses I “selected” at the Ocala June sale, I have 6 winners including 2 graded stakes winners. Of the twenty selected, 14 have run, and 2 more seem to be training toward a race.

I think my performance has been better than West Point and Eclipse with these 2-yr olds in training. I would love to know what the average “performance” of a horse from this sale has been, but that number is not readily available.

My initial thought was that yearlings might be the best way to go, but my choices from the training sales have done well. Given I was not selecting horses that were precocious, my results are better than I expected. Let’s see how these horses hold up this year.

From my 20 horses picked at June Ocala:

1. winner of G1 American Pharoah, Get Her Number, but has not worked since that race
2. winner of Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont, Brooklyn Strong, and then winner of the G2 Remsen, and a real Kentucky Derby contender
3. winner of Juvenile Filly Sprint Stakes, GPW, Shea D Summer
4. winner MSW Churchill, Risky Reward
5. winner MSW Belmont, Whatmakessammyrun
6. winner at Tampa MSW, Tap Dance Fever
7. 8 horses that have run without winning, 2 show promise, the other 6 are iffy
8. 2 horse that are working before their first race
9. 2 workouts not current
10. 2 unnamed

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 – named Mr. Cline, working at Arlington
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100 – named Cane Creek Road, 2nd FG’s maiden claimer
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40 – named Starship Skywalker, working at Gulfstream
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65 – named Avisse, 3rd in MSW at Del Mar, O’Neil
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30 – Named Risky Reward, winner MSW at Churchill, Walsh
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35 – named Shea D Summer, small stake winner at Gulfstream
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17 – named Tap Dance Fever, winner MSW at Tampa
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47 – named Quick Gold, working at Tampa Bay
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30 – named Whatmakessammyrun, winner at Belmont, Weaver
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20 – named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd in MSW at Woodbine
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6 – named Brooklyn Strong, winner of small stake at Belmont, and the Remsen
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110 – named Midnight Choir, 4th at Belmont, Thomas
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20 – named Rittenhouse, working at Monmouth
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25 – unamed, Zacney Racing
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200 – named Chaos Reigns, Ellis, working at SA
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6 – unnamed
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15 -, Mike’s Lady, 4th at Hawthorne, Reavis
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65 – named Jeebar, 2nd in a MSW at Guflstream
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47 – named Get Her Number, winner G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125 – named Nurturing, 6th at Del Mar

Let’ compare to what West Point and Eclipse bought:

Quick Tempo (Tapizar) – recovering from knee surgery after winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fairgrounds in December

Blonde on Top (Tapiture) – last ran 2nd to a nice Brad Cox horse is a $30,000 maiden claimer at Farigrounds. She had some “filling'”in her ankle after her last race.

Tonalistic (Tonalist)- recovering from a stall accident, and was recently shipped to Steve Klesaris in Florida to restart training

Song Saver (Super Saver) – starting to work at Parx, but got a bloody nose in a stall mishap.

Frosted Angel (Frosted) – recently claimed, she will make her first start for Pewter this Friday at Penn National

Point of Entry yearling (now a 2-yr old) – galloping in Ocala, Blue Streak has sent some nice photos and videos

When I last wrote, my 2% owned Quick Tempo had just won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at the Fairgrounds. QT was so fast out of the gate, when the cameraman picked up the horses coming out of the trees, he missed that QT already had a 3 length lead. The cameraman showed the pack, and for 2 seconds I thought QT had fallen, but the cameraman had to readjust and get QT in the picture.

His early fractions of 21.47 and 44.57 were faster than many serious sprinters had run at the Fairgrounds. QT won by 1 3/4 lengths, with another Beyer in the mid 80’s. It is possible he is only a quick sprinter, but a few days later TDN wrote a story listing 35 “midwest” horses on the Derby trail, and QT was on that list. Three winners of the Sugar Bowl Stakes have run in the Derby, the best known was Archarcharch.

It was a long way from a quick work at Ocala in June, to the Derby trail in December. It was exciting, and what any investor in partnerships could only dream of.

Then 12 hours later came an e-mail from Dare to Dream stating that QT had a chip in his knee that would require surgery. The surgery was done on Christmas Eve, and all reports have been positive.

Horse racing is a cruel game. Years ago when my friends were campaigning a stakes quality filly in New York named Biogio’s Rose, they told me they feared every phone call. At the time, I did not understand what they meant.

If I every have another horse that is doing well, I may never open my e-mail.

Quick Tempo is listed as 125-1 and 200-1 on the William Hill and Circa futures bets for the Kentucky Derby. That would not be a good bet.

Injuries are part of the game, that is why it is probably best to invest in a group of horses.

I have always thought that horse racing should take a mid-winter break. It is really the only year round sport, and for a gambler that can cause problems. It is best to take time off and come back fresh.

I think the same goes for writing, after writing a new post nearly every day for 6 months, it was time to take some time off.

I did miss some of the year end sales of older horses, but since none of the partnerships were very active I guess that is ok. Now it is time to “get back on the horse”, and start writing about buying horses again.

Yesterday I received a very well prepared prospectus and podcast covering Ten Strike’s 2020 yearling purchases. It seems they were a little late because they bought some horse it the October FT sale.

There are lots of positives and negatives in this group of 10 horses:

1. You have to respect the ability of Ten Strike’s bloodstock agent to pick horses. Liz Crow has another BC winner this year in Aunt Pearl. She has had Monomoy Girl, British Idiom before that. She works for many other owners, but Ten Strike was one of her first clients.
2. Ten Strike also deserves credit for finding Brad Cox early is his career. Many of the better horses will go to Cox.
3. Marshall Graham recently won the BCBC handicapping contest. I think having the perspective of a gambler is a significant positive that other partnerships do not have.
4. The other partner is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). This is a very rigorous credential that requires a strong analytical ability. Your author is also a CFA.
5. The co-founders have day jobs and the mark-ups here are well below average.
6. The Ten Strike guys were leading owners at Parx and Monmouth in the last 10 years, so they understand the 2nd tier of racing better than many other partnerships.
7. You have to admire the creativity of any partnership that makes a $460.000 son of freshmen sire Lord Nelson their top horse. That is so crazy it just might be brilliant.
8. The second most expensive horse is a Classic Empire, a sire that I like. They also bought a Tonalist, and a Palace Malice which is not fashionable.
9. I like their Violence filly, with a Malibu Moon dam, but wish she was not a first foal.
10. I like the idea of the Khozan filly, but the price ($100,000) was a little steep
11. Ten Strike has been working with co-owners that allow them to buy more expensive horses.
12. Ten Strike has had solid 50% ITM performances from their older horses.

Negatives:

1. Last year’s partnership has not performed well, with only one winner (Swill). This is very difficult to evaluate. Crow says the other horses are still “percolating” and they have “bullets to fire”. I wish Ten Strike was more transparent about last year’s horses. Maybe they are just being patient, which is a good thing. The expensive Into Mischief and Empire Maker from last year have yet to make it to the track. To be fair these horses are listed on the website as unstarted, but I would have preferred a little more discussion on their podcast.
2. I am not a fan of the “pedigree light” approach. It is hard to argue with Crow’s selections based on physical appearance alone, but I am an arrogant bastard. I will continue to look for mares that add stamina.
3. I am a little concerned that some of the horses are only 35% owned. I am a control freak, and an arrogant bastard.
4. I am not a fan of Munnings. I know Ten Strike has had good success with this sire, but they cannot convince me he is more than a sprinter. Crow has already said last year’s Munnings may not get two turns.
5. I am not a fan of breeding their homebred to Midnight Lute, another sprinter.
6. I wish some of their picks had better nick ratings.
7. I am not thrilled by the “this horse could be ready for Saratoga” hints.

There are lots of positives here. I cannot get past the “pedigree light” approach. If you believe in speed, this is your portfolio. If you believe in stamina, then Centennial or Donegal are a better fit.

When the Lord Nelson colt (who looks spectacular is his photo), cruises to victory in next year’s Hopeful, I will look silly. That is the fate of a “value investor”

I have been surprised by how fast many of the partnerships have dropped horses into maiden claimers. I know the old expression “you have to run them where they can win”, but I had expected more patience.

I guess that is the problem with horses you expect to be precocious, is that if they cant’t run early there is no reason to wait for them.

Today at Gulfstream Eclipse had a nice Speightstown colt (paid $150,000 at KE September 2019) out of a Mizzen Mast mare that got one try on turf at Calder before being dropped to $25,000 dirt sprint. He went to the lead, but finished a bad third. If I owned 5% for say about $15,000 I would not be a happy camper.

There was a lot of pedigree here. He was by a mare that won two graded races, and produced a $300,000. If I did not hate Speightstown, I might have liked this horse last year. We will see in 30 minutes if he got claimed, but I am writing this before I know for sure.

I do not mean to pick on Eclipse, I have seen West Point and Donegal do the same thing. In fact Dare to Dream did the same with Blonde on Tap. I guess I should try to keep better track, and I will with this year’s crop.

This observation makes it less likely that I get excited about any big partnership horse that is supposed to by precocious (which is 80% of them).

I have always played with the idea of writing a handicapping blog. Since I have some time before the 2 year old sales start in March, I might experiment with some different formats here.

My focus will be on the races selected for tournaments at Horseplayer.com. Below is an 8 race qualifying tournament (like a poker satellite) at Gulfstream. The format is a $2 win/place bet, top 10% qualify.

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

Selection:

Post Mortem:

————————————————-

Gulfstream race 4 (12/13/20)

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

B #8 – strange selection by morning line maker, not logical on turf, or with Beyers, looking for others,

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A -F)

C #2 – solid MC 40 winner, well bred for sprinting, working steady since win, Fawkes decent 15% guy, ok but not exciting

D #% – want to learn more about Darien Rodriquez, 20% but mainly at Tampa

Selection: #2, hope to get 4-1

Post Mortem:

——————————————–

Gulfstream race 5

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #3 – $12,0000 FTS is TGTBT (to good to be true), never trust bullet works in MC events, not a Georgina Baxter fan

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly?

B #8 – normally I hate these “get out of my barn” (Chad to Fawkes) horses, but this one might have a large pace advantage, and the owners are smart guys that have won graded stakes races, so this looks like a “crafty” drop, they paid $90,000 at Ocala for this Speightster

C #5 – Nick Gonzales was down about 50% in purses won this year, need to know more

Selection: #8

Post Mortem:

———————————————————–

Gulfstream race 6

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

F #5 – love the Kentucky sire in a Florida bred race, Clement has been great with FTS, maybe #7 will be favorite and I can get 5/2

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

D #9 – always watch Dennis manning for long shots

D #3 – Michelle Nihei, or actually Dr. Nehei, is always worth a look on turf

Selection: #5

Post Mortem:

————————————————————

Gulfstream race 7

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #6 – trainer of favorite is 2 for 67 this year

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #4 – Nicks is ok I this kind of spot, #1 or #7 reasonable alternatives, everybody else a 5%er

D #7 – Hit some good Amador Sanchez last year, but he has cooled, I want to learn more, gets Junior Alvarado, Kitten’s joy sprinting ???

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

——————————————————–

Gulfstream race 8

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #7 – favorite is a former Navarro horse, and a claim from Asmussen, double pass, this horse might not finish

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #4 – wish I could find a bomber, but stuck with solid 2nd choice, love the Hard Spun’s on turf

D #9 – Casse is not my favorite long shot guy, but this horse is decent

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

Gulfstream race 9

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

C. #6 – always against Larry Bates (long story), coming out of slow Florida bred race

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

#4 – not a good idea to try and run with Nashvile

#2 – what will Sanchez do with Chilean import?

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

———————————————————–

Gulfstream race 10

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

C #5 – nothing the matter with Maker here, just do not like the price

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #2 – Brittany bombed a long shot at Saratoga this summer, so I will play her young improving horse here. Might get the lead and forget to stop

D #7 – Steve Klesaris is always worth thinking about, think this horse wants longer

Selection: #2

Post Mortem:

————————————————————

Gulfstream race 11

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

B #3 – Maker horse was solid, but did not run the par at Calder

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

A #6 – thought briefly about buying part of this horse in an Eclipse partnership, they paid a lot for a Dominus, but they love his athleticism, grass should be ok, love the blinkers

C #11 – Trombetta ok 2nd time starters, adding blinkers, let’s try another Speightster

Selection: #6, inside info here, but I scratch into the 3, but got bored and found #11,

Post Mortem:

—————————————————–

Summary

These races have about average difficulty. There are favorites to hate, but not a lot of good long shots. Maybe I should be more conservative and not play 10-1+ in the last two races, but I can’t resist.

My prediction is the average win/show price will be $10/$5 = $15 and that it will take $45 to qualify ($32 is breakeven, $4 x 8 races)

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I have become a big fan of the Daily Racing Form product called Formulator.

It has a number of great features including showing the racing results for a sire’s top 20 progeny. With a few clicks I found out that none of Jess’s Dream’s 2 year old’s have run better than a 70 Beyer so far this year.

You can also find the career Beyers and race record for any dam.

You can do a lot with trainer stats, and the pace numbers are interesting

My point is that it is great tool for any race you are handicapping, but it also has uses for those buying horses.

In just six months my stable has grown to small parts of 6 horses:

1. Quick Tempo (2%) – Tapizar colt from a Dixie Union mare – running in the Sugar Bowl stake at Fairgrounds in mid-December – Dare to Dream
2. Blonde on Tap (2%) – Tapiture filly from a Service Stripe mare – trying to break her maiden at Fairgrounds in $30 claimers – Dare to Dream
3. Song Saver (3%) – Super Saver filly from a Tapit mare – starting to work at Parx – Pewter
4. Tonalistic (2%) – Tonalist colt from a Lemon Drop Kid mare – recovering from a chipped ankle in a stall accident, cleared to begin training again – Hibiscus
5. Frosted Angel (5%) – Frosted from a Bellamy Road mare – just claimed at Penn National – Pewter
6. Unnamed (5%) – Point of Entry filly yearling from a Dixieland Band mare that is being broken in Ocala – Blue Streak

This is in total roughly a $10,000 investment. Maybe is would have been better to buy one deal from West Point or Eclipse, but I like the idea of a diversified portfolio.

That does not include the .001% of the 14 yearlings I own at MyRacehorse.com for $50. I have to give them credit, they have been doing a nice job of e-mailing photos and videos. There is no doubt they are professional promotors. MyRacehorse.com is no longer selling the portfolio of 14, but is now offering .001% of Collusion Illusion for $30.

I bought a 5% interest in Frosted Angel from Pewter Stable. She had been claimed the previous night for $25,000 at Penn National. Pewter does these deals with no markup, so 5% is $1300 (remember you do pay sales tax)

Frosted Angel is a daughter of Frosted by a stakes winning Bellamy Road mare. The 2nd dam is by Dynaformer. The filly is bred to run a. distance. Sheffer Racing is a small Kentucky breeder that owned part of a nice 2year old named Georgie’s Angel. GA won the Schuylerville at Saratoga in 2011, but her career ended a few races latter.

They bred her to Malibu Moon and Street Sense and produced a $12,000 winner and a $20,000 winner. Then they tried Will Take Charge and produced a nice sprinter that won $161,000 in a short career. Then they tried Frosted, and produced Frosted Angel. The Sheffer’s gave FA to Ben Coolbrook and she tried a MSW at Churchill on November 12th. She had trouble at the start and rallied to finish 6th earning a 54 Equibase fig.

Then the Sheffers took her to the November Keeneland sale of Horses of Racing Age where she was purchased for $15,000 by Wendy Hendriks. Wendy is the mother on former hurdle rider Ricky Hendriks who is the 10th all-time leading hurdle trainer. Many of the hurdle guys have been successful with converting flat racers to hurdle horses. The key here is that a leading hurdle trainer thought Frosted Angel had the stamina to run the 2 miles that make up the typical hurdle race.

The Hendricks tried to sneak Frosted Angel into a 6 furlong $25,000 maiden claimer at Penn National. She went off as the favorite, but again had gate trouble again, rushed up to second, but faded in the stretch. Pewter claimed her with the idea of eventually trying longer races. Pewter has made some nice mid-price claims in the past.

Here was my rationale:

1. I think Frosted’s are undervalued right now as reflected in the September yearling sales prices
2. The mare was a stakes winner and a producer
3. The 2nd dam (by Dynaformer) shouts stamina
4. The claim was from a family operation, not a claiming factory (think Rudy Rodriquez or Linda Rice)
5. The price was right

it is time to learn something about the claiming game, so let’s dive in.

I finally broke down an bought a yearling. After watching dozens of offers go by from the big guys, I bought 5% of a Point of Entry filly from a small operation called Blue Streak Racing.

From the very beginning Point of Entry has been my favorite turf sire. I have always been a Dynaformer fan, and right now POE is his best son. The mare is Jazz Dancer, a daughter of Dixieland Band. DB is the damsire of Monarchos and Street Sense. Jazz Dancer was not much of a horse, but she has produced 2 winners. More importantly she is the daughter of multiple G1 winning router Missy’s Mirage. There is plenty of stamina pedigree in this 2nd dam.

For a horse that only cost $15,000 that is enough pedigree for me. True Nicks rates the cross an A. She is a New York bred.

Blue Streak is relatively new partnership group founded by Tim McCoy. Tim grew up in Saratoga Springs, so he been around horse racing his whole life. He was also a partnership investor himself, and is now trying to start his own. Last year he bought a $12,000 daughter of Girolamo that won at Saratoga this summer.

My new horse will be trained by Ray Handel. She is currently learning to be a race horse at King’s Equine in Ocala.

Brooklyn Strong made a nice rally to get past the pace setter at a price of 7-1. The time was fast, but the very sloppy conditions make it difficult to evaluate.

Note: The Beyer cam back as an impressive 94, but the mud still warrants caution.

Owner Mark Schwartz went from 0 for 24 last year, to a grade 2 winner, in one wet afternoon. I guess that officially puts him on the Kentucky Derby trail.

You can walk into the Ocala sale with $5,000 and walk out with a Grade 2 winner 6 months later. The United States is a great place, if we could just fire the management.

Brooklyn Strong heads to the post today as the 7/2 third choice in today’s Remsen at Aqueduct. The 1 1/8 mile contest is a real step on the Kentucky Derby “trail”.

6 months ago Brooklyn Strong was a $5,000 purchase at the Ocala sales by an owner who 0 for 24 lifetime at Penn National. Only a very arrogant bastard would have put this horse on his top 20 horses from the sale list.

Brooklyn Strong has exactly the kind of “sneaky” pedigree that I am looking for:

1. The dam is by Medaglia d’Oro
2. The dam ran a 98 Equibase fig in a 1 3/8 mile turf race at Gulfstream
3. She won solid $90,000 in 20 races
4. She produced a $110,000 winner in her 2nd foal
5. The 2nd dam is by stamina influence Thunder Gulch
6. The 3rd dam produced a winner of the Stephen Foster and Hawthorne Gold Cup that won over $1,000,000
7. the nick was rated A by True Nicks

Brooklyn Strong worked a very average 10.2 at Ocala, but given the non-precocious pedigree I consider this a fast work.

It is a lot of fun to think about buying the more expensive $100,000 horses at the sales, but trying to find the Brooklyn Strong’s is the important work.

“A filly with a future” is what the Tampa Bay race caller said when Tap Dance Fever stormed home to a 7 length wire to wire win at Tampa Bay yesterday. That is the 6th winner from the 20 horses I picked at Ocala. She only cost $17,000.

TDF is from a mare that ran fast races at SA without winning. The mare did not run until November of her 3 year old season. Since Tapiture is not precocious either, nobody wanted this horse at the sale. Now she a winner at mile as 2 year old. Maybe the competition is lacking at Tampa, but the time was pretty fast. Equibase only gave her an 80, but I do not really trust them, let’s see what the Beyer comes back.

I called this horse “Contest”, because my guys at Dare to Dream bought a Tapiture filly with a more precocious dam. Blonde on Tap got to the races in August, but today she is in a 6 furlong $30,000 maiden claimer at the Fairgrounds.

Right now it looks like I am winning the contest.

Tap Dance Fever is out of a Green Dancer mare, and the 2nd dam was by Nijinsky. Everyone hates plodders until they win.

Flatter is a son of AP Indy that I have not considered in much detail. At $35,000 he is certainly not a bargain. He should be a great stamina influence, but I do not not really see his offspring winning longer races . Just looking at his photo he seems much more “stocky” than his half brother Bernardini. It seems to me that he is much more Mr. Prospector (from his dam’s side), than AP Indy. Flatter seems to be a half hearted attempt to make a precocious AP Indy. His main positive is his horses continue to sell well at the sales.

Just to be complete I will keep my eye on one that Liz Crow bought at Keeneland:

1. Flatter – No Use Denying by Maria Mon – $80,000

The mare was a nice horse, and the 2nd dam was by Kris S, so let’s watch this filly.

Congrats is $7,500 full brother of Flatter. I thought maybe he could be a “dirty dozen” sire, but I could not find a single one I liked from the 10 sold at Keeneland.

Of course Upstart is a son of Flatter. I had high hopes for Upstart because I had always been a Rick Violette fan. The year started well with Reinvestment Risk, but there has not been much follow through. Upstart has had 16 winners, but other than RR none has really been impressive. It is too early to write-off Upstart, but I am leaning in that direction. I looked through his offspring at Keeneland and found nothing interesting. The breeders seem intent on creating sprinters. I will still watch at the 2 year old sales, but my interest is fading.

Just for a moment let’s throw value out the window. Let’s assume that I have an unlimited supply of money. Which 10 yearlings from the Keeneland 2020 sale would I select to win the Kentucky Derby in 2022.

1. Quality Road – Chapel by AP Indy – $600,000 – nick A+ – Of all the fancy sires I guess my favorite would be Quality Road. QR is out of a Strawberry Road mare. Here we combine him with an unplaced AP indy mare, but the second dam is the best daughter of Harlan (the father of Into Mischief). The 3rd dam was by Sham. This is a Starlight horse.
2. Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000 – PON would be my second favorite fancy sire. The mare by Street Cry was second in the G1 Humana Distaff and produced an $800,000 winner and a $400,000 winner.
3. Curlin – Glinda the Good by Hard Spun – $1,200,000 – A++ nick – Curlin is a great source of stamina, and here the mare is by Hard Spun, a source of precocity and stamina I am gaining respect for. The mare also producer BC Juvenile winner Good Magic by Curlin. I am surprised Repole only had to pay $1.2 million.
4. Gun Runner – Fun House by Prized – $750,000 -A+ nick – Gun Runner could be the next superstar, but I am not an Asmussen fan. Here the mare brings the Prized/Kris S stamina, and has already produced Untapable and Paddy O’Prado. Should really be my top choice, but I hesitate until GR is more proven.
5. Uncle Mo – Peppy Rafaela by Bernardini – $775,000 – A+ nick – If you must buy an Uncle Mo, best to combine it with a Bernardini mare that produced $900,000 multiple graded winner Mopotism. Liz Crow picked this one out. The 2nd dam produced G2 winner Songster.
6. Candy Ride – Draw It by Tapit – $760,000 – A+ nick – Candy Ride is more than just a miler, and here is combined with a mare by Tapit that was 2nd in the G2 Gazelle. The mare already produced a horse the was 2nd in the G2 Rebel. Another Starlight selection.
7. Medaglia d’Oro – Dame Dorothy by Bernardini – $650,000 – A nick – Combine MdO with a G1 winning Bernardini mare and you almost can’t miss. The 2nd dam adds Woodman. Juddmonte has this one.
8. Arrogate – Star Act by Street Cry – $350,000 – A+ nick – If Baffert says Arrogate was the best he ever saw, let’s believe him. The mare was a solid daughter of Street Cry, but 2nd dam was Dynaformer’s best daughter Starrer. My old nemesis Randy Hill bought this one.
9. Classic Empire – Victory Party by Yankee Victor – $350,000 – A++ nick – CE could be next year’s top freshman sire. Here the 2nd dam produced Beholder, Mendelssohn, and Into Mischief.
10. Into Mischief – Divine Heart by Divine Park – $875,000 – A nick – A want to combine IM with as much stamina as I can find. Here the dam is a granddaughter of the great stamina source Chester House, and the 2nd dam produced an $800,000 winning router and a $400,000 winning router. Demi O’Brien has this one.
11. Nyquist – Invitation by Vindication – $650,000 – A++ nick – Nyquist worries me a little, but West Point convinced me of the magic of Vindication as a broodmare sire. Vindication was the last great son of Seattle Slew. First horse off the bench.

It is entertaining and mildly educational to see how the rich people live. For about $8 million, I guess I have about a 2% chance of winning the Kentucky Derby.

Build your own top 10 from the Keeneland website, it’s a fun game.

The list below is my attempt at a masterpiece. It is the culmination of what I have learned in the last 6 months.

There is an 85% chance it is no more than the crayon scribblings of a three year old with his first coloring book.

There is a 15% chance the list is a semi-competent attempt to transfer my 30+ years of investment analysis skills to the market for young horses. You have to start somewhere.

Author Malcom Gladwell estimated that you need 10,000 hours of practice to achieve “world class competence” in a particular subject. I would estimate that I am 500 hours into that journey. Maybe my 20+ years of watching horse races would also count, but I really do not think so. This is a very complex business that requires a great deal of specific knowledge.

My first post had a list of 7 sires that i was interested in. From that starting point my strategy grew and evolved.

These are the main components of my strategy:

1. The final list has 20 different sires that is representative of what I think are the best values in the marketplace. You will notice there are no Into Mischief’s or Uncle Mo’s. My focus is on value, not finding the best horse without regard to price. I usually try to stay in the range of 2x to 4x the stud fee.
2. About half of the list are my plodder/plodder or stamina/stamina horses, that I still think are the best value in the marketplace. No sprinters in here.
3. I think 5 of the sires are my attempt to take advantage of current market conditions where these sires have fallen “out of favor” — Lemon Drop Kid, Frosted, Union Rags, Cairo Prince, and Bernardini.
4. I think 5 of the horses are my attempt to use my version of of the Cox/Crow “miler stretching out” concept — Practical Joke, Unified, Mastery, Hard Spun, and Connect.
5. All of the horses have solid female families. I am looking for “sneaky good” pedigrees, not G1 winners. The dam is either a decent runner or producer, and preferably both. If the first dam is is relatively unaccomplished, then the second dam is strong. There are no “empty mares” like many of the Starlight horses. There are no first foals.
6. The price range is $140,000 to $24,000, with an average of about $60,000. This is a step below where the “big guys” play, but not the “bargain basement” either.
7. 15 of the nicks are B+ or better, but a few of the pedigrees are more experimental.
8. I prefer April or May foals to discourage the pinhookers, but it is not a requirement. 11 are April or May foals.
9. Only 3 are clear turf horses, another 3 have a chance to turf. I would like to find more turf horses, but I could not pedigrees that I really liked.

My 20 favorite yearlings of 2020:

1. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. I think the sire in undervalued, and the dam is exactly what I am looking for. The nick is A+. This horse moved to the top of my list after talking to the Centennial folks about Honor Code. Buyer = S. Schwartz
2. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick, – My favorite freshman sire is Midnight Storm. He was durable, and was a source of stamina on dirt and turf. The dam and 2nd dam were solid producers, and the 2nd dam was by Hansel. The late birthday keeps the pinhookers away. buyer = John Davison
3. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000 – A++ nick, – The more I thought about, the more I like the idea of LDK. He is the ultimate old, boring sire. The mare was a solid runner, and produced two million dollar winners, including freshman sire American Freedom. buyer = Black Stone Farm
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – c – 4/11. $100,000 – I though Classic Empire would be too expensive, but this one is too good to pass up. The mare by the great Kingmambo was 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, and the 2nd dam is by the stamina sire Strawberry Road. The nick is a D, but I just have to try this stamina combination. Buyer = John Oxley, named Classic King
5. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Academy – c – 5/7 – $65,000 – A++ nick, – The dam was multiple graded stakes placed, and produced a graded winner by Dynaformer. Lots of fancy Euro-pedigree in the 2nd dam. My favorite turf horse.
6. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000 – Cairo Prince produced some good horses from below average mares. Now he is getting better mares, like this one that was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. The 2nd dam won 4 grade 1’s, and $965,000. The nick is a A. buyer = Al Fried
7. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000 – B+ nick – Gormley is my favorite new speed sire. The dam produced 6 solid runners from 7 foals, and is by top broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. buyer = 5 O’Clock Somewhere
8. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick. The mix of an AP Indy sire with a Storm Cat mare is classic breeding. The 2nd dam in multiple G1 winner Lazy Slusan. Taking advantage of Bernardini falling “out of favor”, buyer = Jerry Romans
9. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – c – 2/4, $120,000 – A nick, This is the best idea from any partnership. I was very close to buying 5% from West Point. Connect is an interesting freshman sire (a son of Curlin) and Vindication adds Seattle Slew blood. This is the same cross as Exaggerator. buyer = West Point
10. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000 – B+ nick, – This is my second best turf horse. Bernardini is a top quality broodmare sire and the second dam was an amazing stamina producer by Affirmed. Buyer = WSS Racing

Second 10, a little more speed, a little less stamina:

1. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000 – nick C+ – Unified is more of a miler (a son of Candy Ride), but we add plenty stamina on the dam side, unraced AP Indy mare, but the 2nd dam was $1,000,000 winner of the Personal Ensign, Balletto, and the 3rd and 4th dams were graded winners. This is a Cox/Crow type of horse.
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000, nick D – This is my attempt to recreate Union Rags. Their is bunch of stamina pedigree in the 2nd dam by G3 placed daughter of Dynaformer. Mare won a small stake at Santa Anita, and produced a G3 placed winner of $200,000.
3. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker – c – 2/19 – $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick – There is lots of stamina pedigree (Nureyev and Alleged) in the dam. Donegal gave him a nice write up. Great “heart score”
4. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – f – 2/27- $75,000 – A+ nick, – The dam won $100,000. The 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch is a sister to Spain. The same cross as Free Drop Billy
5. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – c – 1/26 – $80,000 – The nick is an A. This is another Union Rags attempt, the dam was a solid distance horse, and the 2nd dam produced $1,000,000 router Macho Again.
6. Connect – Happy Clapper – $50,000, A++ nick, 3/12 – Dam won $200,000 and produced a $100,000 winner, 2nd dam by Cozzene
7. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – f – 4/12 – $100,000 – nick C – Mare won at Delaware. The second dam by Pleasant Colony is the producer of Tonalist. Frosted was “on sale”.
8. Tonalist –Holiday Girl by Harlan’s Holiday – $42,000, 3/17 – nick A++ – This is a Liz Crow idea. Mare is a $100,000 winner and producer of two $100,000 winners. Same Cross as Tonalist’s Shape.
9. Tapiture – Sotique by Hennessy – $60,000 – 2/4 – nick B+ – The mare made $150,000 for Mark Kellar, who has bought some good stamina horses
10. Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – c – 4/27 – $27,000 – nick A – Bought by Antonio Sano who also bought another Dialed In colt named Guenavara.

Just for fun let’s also do a group of 20 that averages $30,000, but goes no higher than $40,000. This might be a more realistic price point for a first time buyer.

1. Point of Entry – Jazz Time by Dixieland Band -$15,000 – nick A – 2nd dam won $800,000 and two G1 races.
2. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado – f – 4/5, $24,000 – American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy. I love the stamina pedigree of the dam. The 2nd dam was runner up in the Personal Ensign. The nick is an A. buyer = Cool Hill Farm
3. Gormley – Beautifulballerina by Nureyev – 4/23 – $33,000 – nick A++ – Second dam by Affirmed. Adding maximum stamina to Gormley with this dam.
4. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- 2/10 -$29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag, dam produced $300,000 winner, B+ nick, My favorite from my “dirty dozen” out of favor sires.
5. Midnight Storm – Soft Wind by Flatter – 4/3 – $35,000 – A++ nick – First and second dam were winners and producers. Adding AP Indy for stamina.
6. Midnight Storm – Miss Montreal – $39,000 – 2/6 – nick B+ – sneaky good mare that ran 111 eqibase fig going a mile on the turf at Gulfstream. Ex Indiana QB Antowne Randal El is the buyer.
7. Shamen Ghost – Guanahani by Pleasant Tap – 4/30 – $25,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced two winners. New sire with lots of stamina added to a stamina mare. The ultimate plodder/plodder.
8. Honor Code – Big Move – $27,000 -2/18 – Mare won $150,000 and is a granddaughter of Dynaformer. This horse might go 2 miles!
9. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40,000 – A++ nick – Mare produced two $300,000 winners.
10. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance by Danehill – c – 4/18 – $35,000 – Ironhorse – A very solid Danehill mare. She was G3 placed and produced a $400,000 winner.
11. Keen Ice – Peace Price – $37,000 – B+ nick – Dam produced a $300,000 winner that finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes.
12. American Freedom – Never Quicker by Hennessy – c – 2/10 – $37,000 – nick A – Classic cross of AP Indy and Storm Cat. Mare was a winner and produced a $200,000 winner.
13. Orb – Brusquer by Elusive Quality – $17,000 – 2/6 – nick A++ – Dam was a winner, 2nd dam produced Tapit, 3rd dam by Nijinsky. Travis Murphy takes a shotClassic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt.
14. Classic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt.
15. Connect – Exclusive Woman (99) by Cat Thief – $20,000 – B+ nick – Dam by won $100,000 and produced a $140,000 winner. 2nd dam by Dynaformer, 3rd dam by Affirmed, how much more stamina can you get?
16. Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok, $30,000, Hoppel’s Horse, A++ nick dam won $60,000, and produced a $300,000 graded stakes winner.
17. Maclean’s Music – Reggae Rose – $20,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced a $500,000 winner, 2nd dam by Dynaformer produced a $300,000 winner
18. Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch -$21,000 – 2/20 – nick A – Maybe Astern can be stretched of if you add Thunder Gulch. Mare was a winner and producer.
19. Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – 2/11 – $15 – Same cross as Exaggerator, 2nd dam won 800,000 and multiple graded races.
20. Anchor Down – Lemon Secretary by Lemon Drop Kid – 3/8 – $10 – nick B+ – Dam produced an $80,000 winner that was graded stakes placed, and the 2nd dam is full sister to stamina sire Perfect Soul.

After the Ocala sale I went back and retroactively picked a group of yearlings from the 2019 Keeneland sales results.

My results have been horrible. This was different strategy where I tried and failed to pick expensive horses like the big guys. That was a big mistake. 50% are not working. Ouch.

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker by Kingmambo 25% of $375 – working at FG, from Ten Strike
2. The Honorable One – Honor Code by Tiznow 20% of $600 – working at SA
3. Prize Fighter – Frosted by Medaglia de Oro 50% of $260 – not working
4. Victory March – Maclean’s Music by Pleasant Tap 50% of $210, not working
5. Lemonata – Carpe Diem by Lemon Drop Kid 50% of $200 – not working
6. Warn – Declaration of War by Arch 25% of $140, not working
7. Shirelle – Point of Entry by Consolidator 25% of $150 (a Parcells buy), 3rd in MSW at Saratoga, Brown
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music by Jump Start 100% of $30 – not working
9. LaTourista – Tourist by Broken Vow 100% of $30 – 2nd in 3 starts at Prairie Meadows, Murphy

Inspired by a $40,000 Flashback yearling that became a BC champion, lets build a portfolio of cheaper yearlings. These are not the cheapest, I want to pay 2x to 5 x for these horses. I will look for horses bought by people who want to race them, not pinhook them. These are all from the September Keeneland sale.

At least most of these horses are working, but the results are still poor so far

1. Aikman – Carpe Diem – $25,000 – Danial Pita – working at Gulfstream
2. Big Big Plans – Point of Entry – $17,000 – Nick Gonzales – MC. winner, had the lead in G1 Natalama faded to 7th, won a claimer
3. Whistlers Style – Tonalist – $55,000 – Frank Lewkowitz – working at SA
4. Star Mission – Noble Mission – $27,000 – Ken McPeek – 5 bad MCs at Gulfstream
5. God’s Pick – Summer Front – $13,000 – 8th at Remington
6. LaTourista – Tourist – $30,000 – Travis Murphy – 2nd in 3 starts at Prairie Meadows, Murphy
7. Spanish Rider – Ironicus – $14,000 – Red Stable, not working
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music – $30,000 – Jeff Greenhill – not working
9. Emblem Leader – Bayern – $35,000 – Emblem Stables – not working
10. Elle Est Forte – Flintshire $50,000 – GBW Racing – 6th at Chrurchill

This is a high risk strategy. Let’s see how it works. All of these are “slow” horses with lots of distance pedigree on the dam side.

I guess we should try to keep track of this mess in some organized way.

Here are the Eclipse yearlings from their website:

1. More Than Ready – Almada – $130,000
2. Arrogate – Astray – $250,000
3. Empire Maker – Black Chocolate – $15,000
4. War Correspondent – Capriana
5. Curlin – Fifty Foot Woman – $310,000
6. Classic Empire – Flattermewithroses- $310,000
7. Curlin – Inlovewithlove – $425,000
8. Curlin – Marion Ravenwood – $350,000
9. Nyquist – Moon River Gal – $135,000
10. Quality Road – Pearl Turn – $560,000
11. Speightstown – Pickaway – $100,000
12. Declaration of War – Riolama -$115,000
13. English Channel – Rutherine – $27,000
14. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda – $250,000
15. Tapit – Tara’s Tango – $2,000,000
16. Gun Runner – Wild About Tiffany – $100,000

Starlight:

1. Barossa – Into Mischief – $775,000
2. Great Ocean Road – Quality Road – $775,000
3. Masterson – Candy Ride – $760,000
4. Rockefeller – Medaglia d’Oro – $750,000
5. McLaren Vale – Gun Runner – $625,000
6. Blackadder – Quality Road – $620,000
7. Rhetoric – Quality Road – $600,000
8. Andros – Uncle Mo – $585,000
9. Carbonite – Union Rags – $560,000
10. Wharton – Candy Ride – $475,000
11. Brooklyn Diamonds – Uncle Mo – $400,000
12. Montebello – Curlin – $400,000
13. Defensible – Blame – $400,000
14. Western Cape – Curlin – $400,000
15. Anaheim – Twirling Candy – $385,000
16. Pinehurst – Twirling Candy – $385,000
17. Marco Polo – Empire Maker – $330,000
18. Blue Devil – Uncle Mo – $300,000
19. Murray – Street Sense – $300,000
20. Wesleyan – Curlin – $250,000
21. Kendall Square – Quality Road – $250,000
22. Encode – Empire Maker – $245,000
23. Bordeaux Belle – Quality Road $235,000
24. Armagnac – Quality Road – $210,000
25. Speedy Politi – Flatter – $200,000
26. Wave’s Edge – Candy Ride – $165,000
27. Von Trapp – Speightstown – $150,000
28. Mauritius – Twirling Candy – $130,000
29. Newgrange – Violence – $125,000
30. Wahlberg – Candy Ride – $100,000
31. Empire Maker – $470,000
32. Into Mischief – $800,000
33. More Than Ready – $300,000
34. Maclean’s Music – $400,000
35. Uncle Mo – $420,000
36. Twirling Candy – $150,000
37. Union Rags – $180,000
38. Into Mischief – $700,000

And from West Point:

1. Brigadier General – Street Sense -Mia and Molly – $150,000
2. Candy Cool – Candy Ride – Dixie City – $575,000
3. Connect – Vindy City – $120,000
4. Frankel – Rubina – $400,000
5. Frosted – Magical Belle – $225,000
6. Giants Causeway – Game for More $500,000
7. Honor Board – Street Boss – Black Oak – $140,000
8. Longest Day – Declaration of War – Tee Off – $170,000
9. Master the Day – Mastery – Exogenetic – $300,000
10. Medaglia d’Oro – Miss Empire – $300,000
11. Nyquist – Secret Garden – $100,000
12. Pinpoint Control – Dialed In – Silken Lady – $82,000
13. Quick Power Nap – Kantharos – Bunhead – $30,000
14. Ready AP – More Than Ready – Girlabouttown – $125,000
15. Brody’s Cause – Light Shine – $105,000

myracehorse.com

1. Into Mischief – Cayla by Cherokee Run – $600,000, ok mare, not a IM fan, C
2. Uncle Mo – Margaret Reay by Pioneerof the Nile, $400,000, good mare, not a UM fan, C+
3. War Front – Key to My Heart – $360,000, great mare, decent turf idea, expensive, B
4. Empire Maker – Tapitry by Tapit – $360,000, solid mare, reasonable, B+
5. Frosted – More Oats Please by Smart Strike, $250,000, solid mare, my favorite, A-
6. Gun Runner – Classofsixtythree by Include, $250,000, good mare, B
7. Not This Time – Awe Hush by Awesome Again, $220,000, ok mare, expensive, B
8. Honor Code – Exonerated by Johannesburg, $210,000, good mare, A-
9. Into Mischief – Latte Da by Tiznow, $195,000, good family, B
10. Bernardini – Midnight Sweetie by Midnight Lute, $185,000, decent family, B+
11. Looking at Lucky – Ambleside Park by Fusaichi Pegasus, $115,000, good mare, B
12. Kantharos – Spieghtstown Belle by Spieghtstown, $85,000, sprint oriented, C
13. Classic Empire – Consecrate by Pulpit, $80,000, ok mare, good price, B+
14. Connect – Athenian Beauty by Corinthian, $50,000, too sprint oriented, B-

Centennial:

1. Gun Runner – Truthful by Bodemeister $420,000
2. Nyquist – Chatillion by Ghostzapper $300,000
3. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000
4. Street Sense – Skylar’s Pass by The Factor $140,000

Donegal:

1. Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya $350,000 (spectacular horse)
2. Street Sense – Wedding Jitters by Broken Vow $125,000 (really nice)
3. Kitten’s Joy – Elemntar by More Than Ready $150,000 (maybe Arklow II)
4. Uncle Mo – Runaway Ready by Mr. Greeley $400,000 (they own 1/2)
5. Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown by Pulpit $250,000
6. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker $140,000 (more of a miler to me)
7. Distorted Humor – Namaskara by Giant’s Causeway $130,000 (solid)
8. Exaggerator – Lookingforchange by Gilded Time $70,000 (ok, Gilded Time?)

I want to keep track of some 2 year olds that I considered in the last 6 months:

1. Ninja Kitten – a $67,000 Zilla purchase that I missed by a few days, working steadily at Belmont
2. Strong Silent – Wicked Strong horse that Dale Romans pushed on West Point, $300,000???
3. Cargo – a Cal bred son of Point of Entry that Little Red Feather had available, not working yet
4. Brian’s Mission – an interesting son of Noble Mission offered by a small group (Dreammaker), starting to work at Belmont
5. Adwhaa – a private purchase deal that Kenwood had, ran a good 2nd at Parx
6. Too Legit – my favorite horse at Ocala, that was withdrawn and sold privately, already a winner at Woodbine
7. Black N Tan – an Elusive Quality sprinter that West Point had, already a claimer for Asmussen
8. QF Seventy Five – a Vancouver colt that I seriously considered from West Point, starting to work at Belmont
9. Naismith – a Medaglia d’Oro that myracehorse.com was offering micro-shares in, not working yet
10. Both Donegal and Centennial had “loose shares” available in the horse that are now 2, these would have been $40,000 to $60,000 swings, results have been poor so far
11. Lunatic – a Mshawish idea with no pedigree, but hope for a quick win, was always a pass, trained by Peter Miller
12. Deemed Essential – an Upstart I really liked at Ocala that was withdrawn, already two 2nds for Pletcher
13. Exponential – a Noble Mission I loved at the Ocala sale, running for Spatz
14. Xtreme Mayhem – best horse at Timonium, winner for Robertson at Laurel
15. Deceiver – Ironhorse buy for $12,000 at Ocala July
16. Noble Conquest – Bloodlines Noble Mission homebred
17. Smokin Jay – Crown’s Way nice Cairo Prince, also Judy’s Way
18. Summer Front – Love Handles by Horseplayer in Washington
19. Solana Beach yearlings for Little Red Feather

I will do all the yearlings I passed up in a different post.

The previous post lists 70 horses that were bought at yearling sales in 2019 by Ten Strike, Donegal, Starlight, Eclipse, West Point, and Centennial. The average price is roughly $230,000. In bold are their racing achievements so far.

1 (1%) has won a G1 Stakes race, and a listed stake (Gretzky the Great) at Woodbine

13 (19%) have won maiden races, and 2 of those have won an allowance races as well

14 (20%) have run without winning

17 (24%) have at least one published work in the last 60 days, but have not raced

25 (36%) have no published works in the last 60 days

I guess I would have expected a higher winning percentage for such expensive horses, that are generally bred to win early. I certainly would not have expected 36% to have no works. Maybe the risks of buying yearlings is higher than I realize.

Maybe COVID has had a greater effect than most realize, and everything is just delayed a few months Maybe everyone is developing their horses more slowly. Or maybe the partnerships just did not buy a good bunch of horses.

Postscript:

A Bloodhorse article said that through the end of October, two year old races were down 20% from the prior year. The same article said the delays at training centers had slowed the progress of some young horses.

While we are looking at performance let’s go back and look at some of the partnerships who chose yearlings over training sales.

The first that strongly pushed yearlings only was Ten Strike:

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker $370,000 – working at FG
2. Amazing Rocket – Into Mischief $500,000 – not working
3. Rocket Equation – Frosted $250,000 – 5th in Indiana
4. Eight and Sand – Munnings – homebred – not working
5. Swill – Munnings $265,000 – winner at Churchill
6. Montgomery Park – Munnings $170,000- 3rd at Ellis
7. Lovin Lucky – Lookin at Lucky $140,000 – working at FG
8. Arrio – Paynter $50,000 – working at Laurel
9. Racy Jaycee – Race Day $24,000 – not working

This was a great presentation done by Brad Cox and Liz Crow, but they only have one win. This was the ultimate speedy miler that can stretch out portfolio. So far not so good.

The other big advocate for yearlings was Donegal:

1. Abarta – Into Mischief by Distorted Humor $200,000 mare a turf router, Keeneland #1132, part-owner – 13th BC Juvenile Turf, got a hard bump at start, winner at CD
2. Cashlings – Ghostzapper by Smart Strike – $250,000 mare was a turf/dirt miler. Keeneland #643, part owner – working at SLR
3. Code Duello – Honor Code by Rubiano – $95,000. mare never even ran 40 at Finger Lakes, but has 9 winners from 11 foals, Keeneland #296 – working at KE
4. Donegal Bay – Uncle Mo by Empire Maker, $90,000 2nd dam won the Kentucky Oaks, on paper great value, Keeneland #2658 – 6th at Saratoga
5. Fahan – Honor Code by Horse Chestnut – $235,000 mare graded stakes placed at 1 1/2 miles on the turf, Keeneland #2132 – not working
6. Hendrick – Street Sense by Seeking the Gold – $75,000 mare was Godolpin horse that ran in GB, Keeneland #1846 – won MC 150 at Churchill
7. Lode of Blarney – Exxagerator by Silver Deputy – $85,000 mare unraced, but 7 of 11 foals were winners, Keeneland #1272 – 9th in Indiana
8. Millean – Blame by Tale of the Cat, $65,000 -mare never ran better than 68, two foals neither a winner, Keeneland #1716 – 6th at Saratoga
9. Potato Candy – Candy Ride by Dynaformer – $210,000, mare was a decent allowance turf sprinter Keeneland, #1793 – not working, sore feet
10. Tommy Knocker – Mineshaft by Touch Gold – $65,000, mare unraced, but 6 of 7 foals were winners, Keeneland #2409 – not working
11. The Big Irishman – Hat Trick by Mizzen Mast – homebred, mare won claiming Crown Tiara at 1 1/16 on the turf – working at Turfway
12. Turlough – English Channel by AP Indy – homebred, mare won only a maiden race in NY – entered MC 25 at GP

Only 2 wins from this nice group of horses is difficult to believe. They could just be late developers, but you would like to see some hints. I believe in the Donegal process, but these are below average results.

And then the expensive stuff from Starlight:

1. Spielberg – Union Rags – $1,000,000 – 3rd in the American Pharoah
2. Hopkins – Quality Road – $900,000 – working at LA
3. Classier – Empire Maker – $775,000 – speed and quit in BC Juvenile
4. Tenor – Curlin – $800,000 – 6th at Del Mar
5. Fenway – Into Mischief – $650,000 – working at LA
6. Hozier – Pioneerof the Nile – $625,000 – working at LA
7. Tarantino – Pioneerof the Nile – $610,000 – 2nd Zuma Beach
8. Money Mike – Into Mischief – $600,000 – not working
9. Showpower – More Than Ready – $500,000 – not working
10. Carrobio – Pioneerof the Nile – $410,000 – working at SA
11. Bezos – Empire Maker – $400,000 – not working
12. Savile Road – Quality Road – $385,000 – winner at Del Mar
13. Jouster – Noble Mission – $360,000 – 2nd at Saratoga
14. Miacomet – Flatter – $350,000 – working at LA
15. Recidivist – Into Mischief – $350,000 – not working
16. Splashtown – Speightstown – $300,000 – not working
17. Honest Money – Honor Code – $265,000 – not working
18. Knopfler – Looking at Lucky -$240,000 – working at LA
19. Freedom Fighter – Violence – $120,000 – winner at Del Mar
20. Mr. Briggs – Super Saver – $85,000 – not working

Starlight has 5 winners out of 20 top dollar horses, 8 are not working. What does that mean? Has COVID slowed everything down, or is there something wrong here?

Eclipse yearlings:

1. Excursion – $325,000 – 2nd at MON
2. Avenue – $450,000 – working at PBD
3. Speight – $180,000 – 9th at GPW
4. Hidden – $225,000 – not working
5. Modest – $175,000 – 2nd Saratoga
6. Astrological – $350,000 – not working
7. Aviano – $775,000 – 2nd at AQ
8. Demon – $160,000 – 3rd at GPW
9. Honorable – $60,000 – winner MC at GPW
10. Tunic – $410,000 – working FH
11. Vacay – $100,000 – winner NY State Bred stakes
12. Gretzky the Great – $265,000 – winner G1 at Woodbine

With the exception of Gretzky the Great the results are poor.

Centennial:

1. Frozen Assets – $275,000 – not working
2. Royal Realm – $250,000 – not working
3. Orr – $375,000 – not working
4. Khafre – $500,000 – working at Belmont
5. Necco – $500,000 – not working

This is the ultimate in slow developing, but not completely unexpected. Jimmy Jerkens brings them along slow. This is real patience, I think, or it might be slow horses.

West Point yearlings purchases:

1. Lady Traveler – $350,000 – winner at CD
2. Warn – $140,000 – not working
3. Elector – $65,000 – working at SA
4. Proud Union $55,000 – not working
5. A Longlongtimeago – $120,000 – working at Belmont
6. Charity for All – $50,000 – 9th MC at CD
7. Classic Colors – $170,000 – winner Belmont
8. Arabian Prince – $235,000 – 3rd in a G2 stake
9. Magnificient – $260,000 – not working
10. Martinez – $100,000 – 3rd MSW at Belmont
11. Flightline – $1,000,000 – not working
12. First Captain – $1,500,000 – not working

A little surprising the expensive horses are not even working.

Bourbon Lane:

1. Queen Bourbon – Empire Maker $265,000 – not working
2. Bourbon Royale – Tapit $240,000 – not working
3. Rye Sense of Humor – Distorted Humor $180,000 – 2nd at Ellis
4. Frosted Bourbon – Frosted $120,000 – 5th at Belmont
5. Hard Rye Guy – Hard Spun $125,000 – 3rd at KD

Progressing slowly

Myracehorse.com

1. Moonlight d’Oro – Medaglia de Oro $625,000 – 2nd at Del Mar
2. Shared Empire – Pioneerof the Nile $275,000 – not working
3. Joyful Addiction – Pioneerof the Nile $385,000 – not working
4. Lady Valentine – Into Mischief $385,000 – not working

Yikes!

Little Red Feather:

1. #2865 Miss Costa Rica by Hit It a Bomb, $95,000, flipped for $200,000, and already a winner at Del Mar with a nice 87 fig – winner at Del Mar
2. #1428 Agreetodisagreee by Runhappy , $155,000, 4th at Del Mar
3. #2778 Labor Union by Union Rags, $80,000, 4th at Del Mar
4. #1285, $160,000, not yet named, Street Sense out of Montana Native – unnamed

Sucked into a Runhappy??

I will do a more detailed analysis of performance at year end, but let’s take a glance right now.

From my 20 horses picked at June Ocala:

1. winner of G1 American Pharoah, Get Her Number
2. winner of Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont, Brooklyn Strong
3. winner of Juvenile Filly Sprint Stakes, GPW, Shea D Summer
4. winner MSW Churchill, Risky Reward
5. winner MSW Belmont, Whatmakessammyrun
6. 7 horses that have run
7. 5 horse that are working before first race
8. 1 named, but not working
9. 2 unnamed

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 – named Mr. Cline, working at Arlington
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100 – named Cane Creek Road, 4th Churchill MC
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40 – named Starship Skywalker, not working
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65 – named Avisse, 3rd in MSW at Del Mar, O’Neil
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30 – Named Risky Reward, winner MSW at Churchill, Walsh
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35 – named Shea D Summer, small stake winner at Gulfstream
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17 – named Tap Dance Fever, 3rd at Delaware MC, Bennett, working at Tampa
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47 – named Quick Gold, working at Tampa Bay
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30 – named Whatmakessammyrun, winner at Belmont, Weaver
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20 – named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd in MSW at Woodbine
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6 – named Brooklyn Strong, winner of small stake at Belmont
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110 – named Midnight Choir, 4th at Belmont, Thomas
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20 – named Rittenhouse, working at Monmouth
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25 – unamed, Zacney Racing
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200 – named Chaos Reigns, Ellis, working at SA
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6 – unnamed
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15 -, Mike’s Lady, 4th at Hawthorne, Reavis
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65 – named Jeebar, bullet at Gulfstream
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47 – named Get Her Number, winner G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125 – named Nurturing, 6th at Del Mar

Let’ compare to what West Point and Eclipse bought:

1. (WP) Jaxon Traveler – Munning’s – Listen Boy – $140,000 – winner MSW + allowance at Laurel
2. (WP) King’s Ovation – Not This Time – Karen’s Silk -$200,000 – winner MSW Churchill
3. (WP) Silver Streak – Ironicus – Pic Three Bertie – $45,000 – working at Fair Hill
4. (EC) McCovey Cove – California Chrome – Sky Glow – $200,000 – not working
5. (EC) Surplus – Fed Biz – Chestnut Moon -$47,000 – not working
6. (EC) Exact – Competitive Edge – Thisizsparta – $82,000 – 2nd at Belmont
7. (EC) Nuturing – Violence – Pi Bella – $125,000 – 6th at Del Mar
8. (EC) Dutchess of Shire – Flintshire – Anaaba – $47,000- not working
9. (EC) Cadencia – Mshawish – Tango Time – 115,000 – 2nd at Belmont

West Point and Eclipse spent $1,035,000 on 9 horses.

I spent $1,041,000 on 20 horses. You make the comparison.

If I did not write this all down, absolutely no one would believe me. This is certainly a very small sample and a very short time frame. I know from 30 years of evaluating performance numbers of portfolio managers that short-term results can be misleading.

On the other hand, Warren Buffett alway said that he had a distinct advantage of working in Omaha, rather being in the center of the Wall Street maelstrom. My picks were made without seeing the horses, or getting an advice from experts.

Myracehorse.com:

1. Storm Shooter – Twirling Candy – $180.000 – winner at Belmont
2. Thirteen Stripes – Constitution – $100,000 – working at Ellis

Ironhorse:

1. Tap Gold – Tapiture – 5th at Churchill

Donato Lani:

1. Not This Time – Business Decision – $700,000 – unnamed
2. Du Jour – Temple City – Guiltless – $280,000 – 2nd at Del Mar
3. Varda – Distorted Humor – $700,000 – winner at Del Mar
4. Tivoli Twirl – Twirking Candy – $700,00 – working at SA

Ken McPeek:

1. Surrealist – Paynter – $210,000 – 2nd at KD
2. Front Street – Street Sense – $170,000 – 2nd at KE
3. Hoisthemainsail – Mizzen Mast – $130,000 – winner MC at Churchill
4. Sweet Penelope – Anchor Down – $90,000 – working at Gulfstream
5. Forever Boss – Tapiture – $23,000 – working at Gulfstream

Pewter:

1. Mundle of Joy – Munnings – $50,000 – 4th at Parx
2. Justin Philip filly – Catch My Fancy – $40,000 – not working
3. Liam’s Warrioress – Liam’s Map – $20,000 – not working

Four different groups move into the Top 10:

1. Dare to Dream – got me to the winner’s circle with Quick Tempo, did not buy many yearlings
2. Centennial Farm – really like their 4 horse portfolio of yearlings
3. Blue Streak – cheering for the little guy, bought a nice Point of Entry yearling, I own 5%
4. Pewter – bought some bargains to think about, low fees, made a nice Frosted claim, I own 5%
5. Donegal – really like their approach, not sure about the Uncle Mo’s
6. West Point – came very close with Connect colt
7. Eclipse – came very close with Air Force Blue filly
8. Bourbon Lane – very solid two horse deal
9. Ironhorse – very nice Connect filly, lower fees?, maybe
10. Little Red Feather – did buy a Midnight Storm to think about, California only a problem
11. MyRacehorse.com – positives and negatives, bought a micro-share of 14 yearlaings
12. Pocket Aces – will think about their Mastery purchase, worried he’s a first foal
13. Zilla – love their claiming work, their Nyquist yearling was ok
14. Kenwood Racing – great success at Monmouth, I want to learn more
15. Victory Racing – solid Connect yearling offer, worried he’s a first foal
16. Horseplayers Racing Club – still thinking about Summer Front yearling, gone?
17. Funky Munky – will think about their new Mineshaft buy
18. Don’t Tell My Wife – interesting buys, need to learn more
19. Hibiscus – did not buy yearlings, my Tonalist still recovering
20. Final Furlong – missed their Summer Front, decent Speightster yearling offered
21. Ten Strike – not sure if they bought more than two yearlings
22. Starlight – underwhelmed, by there expensive “pedigree light” approach
23. Bloodlines Racing – sold out, will watch next year
24. Crown’s Way need to revisit, they have a nice 2 year old, Smokin Jay
25. Dream Maker Racing – 2yr old Noble Mission still not named???
26. Wasabi Ventures – 2 yr olds not working yet?
27. Basset Stables – offering a Maclean’s Music, but with sprinter dam, using S. Joesph
28. Bond Racing – lots to choose from, but a little pricy
29. DreamTeam Racing – Effenix filly, Dramatic Twist working
30. Brilliant – on mailing list, only training sales?
31. Top Hat – remain confused
32. Team Valor – non-US only
33. Live Your Dream – still selling a book
34. Taste of Victory – Bowlmaggedon still not working
35. UTCB – no current offerings, but interesting concept
36. Bona Venture – seems inactive, no new offers
37. Let’s Go Stable – remain confused by this website
38. American Classic – offering 2 yr old with no works
39. Beach Haven – just one horse
40. Slam Dunk Racing – no current offers
41. Hidden Brook Farm – not sure what they are offering
42. Magdelena – what is McPeek doing?
43. Country Life Farm – mid-Atlantic sires
44. Churchill Downs Racing Club – bought nice AFB
45. Paradise Racing Stables – $200 Old Topper Cal-bred
46. Snowy Sunset -need to evaluate, strange website
47. Trainers – Moger, Cibelli, Greenhill and how many more
48. Drawing Away Stable – claiming only
49. Blinker’s On – claiming only
50. Sunny Jim Fitsimmons – claiming only
51. Bradley Thoroughbreds – no offers
52. Bush Racing – $250 claiming partnerships in MD
53. Winners Circle – trotters

I have been asleep at the switch. Bernardini yearlings fell from an a median of $100,000 in 2019, to a median of $35,000 this year. This is his 11th crop, and folks are getting bored. Only $100,000+ sires have produced more G1 dirt winners than Bernie. Bernie stands for just $35,000. I have been focused on Honor Code as my son of AP Indy, but there is nothing the matter with Bernie to get the stamina provided by AP Indy.

The problem is that to get a commercial horse, the breeders seldom breed to stamina oriented mares. The horse Bourbon Lane bought is a common example of breeding Bernie to a precocious Storm Cat mare.

I am looking for something different:

Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – $60,000, Jerry Romans, A nick

The mare is a full sister to two good stakes horses, but she was unplaced in one start, and this is her second foal. Touch Gold was a Belmont winner, and the 2nd dam is a daughter of the Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged. This is the classic plodder/plodder horse. It really should be in my top 10.

I would like to find a cheap Bernie, but nothing jumps of the page

The first Kentucky Derby Futures pool is out. I feel the need to take some action just for the fun of it.

The best bet is probably to take the 3000+ other horses being offered at 3/2, but that’s no fun. Given all the COVID problems it is probably a good bet that the best horses have not started yet. There was a 1 1/8 race for 2 year olds at Churchill yesterday won by a very slow horse. For the record, I would say 3/2 is a very nice price on the field.

I am not a fan of Baffert’s horse Life is Good (another son of Into Mischief), so I like the prices being offered on some of the long shots. LIG is currently 4/1 and the favorite, BC winner Essential Quality is second choice at 7/1 which seems fair.

I will take a swing at:

Jackie Warrior at 17-1, still hoping Maclean’s Music can get two turns

Caddo River at 33-1, Brad Cox and my new found respect for Hard Spun

Highly Motivated at 18 -1, if he can beat Quick Tempo, he can beat anyone

Rombauer at 90-1, you have to cheer for the little guy, a Twirling Candy

I threw $100 at each, I can invest in another partnership if I win.

There is nothing wrong with a good scoop of vanilla ice cream. There are certainly more exciting flavors to choose, but sometimes basic is good.

A good scoop of vanilla is what popped into my mind when I looked at the 2 horse partnership offered by Bourbon Lane Stable. Both horses are very solid, and the prices paid were very reasonable. I think they were looking to add a third horse, but let’s give them credit for not overpaying.

The main horse is $100,000 son of Practical Joke. PJ is, of course, by the ubiquitous Into Mischief. PJ only costs $22,500, or exactly 10% of his father’s $225,000. The dam and 2nd dam were solid allowance sprinters, and both also produced decent horses, and the 3rd dam produced several stakes winners including $1,000,000 winner Chorwon. The price paid was 75% of the median paid for PJ colts this fall. The nick is rated A.

If you go by traditional tastes, not my crazed insistence on stamina, this is a very nice horse at a great price. He also takes a very good photograph.

Practical Joke – Elusive One by Elusive Quality – $100,000

For their second horse Bourbon Lane took a 25% interest in a $165,000 colt by Bernardini. The dam produced the nice horse Pacific Gale. PG was raced by Toby Morton, who is one of the partners in buying this horse. The 2nd dam was a solid horse, and the 3rd dam produced the $1,000,000 winner Top Secret. Bernardini is one of those boring sires of 11 crops that I have probably overlooked. The nick is rated A++, there is nothing more basic than a son of AP Indy mated with a Storm Cat mare.

Bernardini – Pacific Whisper by Forestry – $165,000 (BL share 25%)

These are two very nice horses, at reasonable prices, using conventional breeding ideas. They will be trained by Ian Wilkes. Bourbon Lane moves into my top 10 partnerships.

It has been my goal to stay positive on this blog, but that can become difficult. A friend mentioned he had seen an ad for a James Bond horse partnership.

After looking at Bond’s website I remain confused. There are plenty of horses to choose from, but no mention of where they were purchased, and no pedigrees were displayed. Every other website has this information.

One Honor Code I was interested in was selling for 10% for $10,000. A little research showed that Bond Racing had bought this horse at Fasig-Tipton September yearling sale, and paid $30,000. A 3.3x markup is a little steep in my world. If I had been interested in some of the sires, I might have looked further, but nothing caught my eye. There are plenty of NY breds.

Mr. Bond has always won his share of races, especially at his home track, Saratoga. I have heard he can a difficult man to do business with. Someday I will look at some of the other trainer partnerships, but for now I will pass on. Bond Racing.

Value investors have a difficult life. They have to look at the things that nobody else wants. Rather than looking at Into Mischief or Nyquist, we get look at Brody’s Cause.

Not This Time has earned the status of the next Giant’s Causeway, everybody else is a distant second. Maybe that creates some value.

Brody’s Cause has an interesting pedigree. The female side has some interesting stamina influences. It is not surprising he produced the Iroquois winner Sitting On Go. Maybe SOG just picked up the picked up the pieces when the pace collapsed, or maybe he has a chance to be a nice horse.

The median Brody’s Cause yearling fell from $32,000 to $10,000, maybe there is some value here:

Brody’s Cause – Dating Lady Luck by Arch – $35,000, This mare and the 2nd dam are about as distance oriented as you can find. The nick is a D, but I think it worth a try.

Brody’s Cause – Miss Pippa by Master Command (son of AP Indy) – $10,000, The mare and 2nd dam each won $150,000+, that’s pretty good for a $10,000 horse, worth the speculation

These are both solid, but not spectacular ideas.

One sire that I have been indifferent about is Liam’s Map. He always seemed a little overpriced to me ($30,000). His median yearling was $85,000 last year, but that fell to only $55,000 this year.

Both Rushie and Basin and have been more miler/sprinters than stamina horses. No other offspring have really stepped forward. By dollars earned he is about the 5th leading 2nd crop sire, but much of that has been by volume.

Liam’s Map was the “bridge from Unbridled Song to Arrogate, but now that you can buy an Arrogate’s, some of the offspring of Liam’s map might be forgotten. None of the partnerships bought a single Liam’s Map this year.

Maybe this is a “buying opportunity”, let’s look for one among the Keeneland yearlings:

Liam’s Map – c – Pastel Gal by Lemon Drop Kid – $160,000, Repole, the best stamina mare by far, D nick but worth a try

Liam’s Map – f – Lisa B by Grindstone, – $75,000 – Naify, very fancy 2nd dam, mom of Evening Attire, D nick

Liam’s Map – f – Pleasant Mine by Mineshaft – $13,000, HMA Equine, decent mare won $100,000, quite a bargain, A+ nick, this would be a fun filly to own and breed

None of these are outstanding ideas, but they are reasonable.

I am going to add Unified to my top 10 favorite sire list. He is a son of Candy Ride that was campaigned by Centennial Farms. He did not start until late February, but won the 9 furlong Peter Pan just 3 months later. Injuries kept him out of the Triple Crown races, but he did come back to just barely lose the 7 furlong Carter Handicap (G!) by a nose.

I know that Centennial thought he would have been a stamina oriented horse if he had not been injury prone. Don Little of Centennial is quoted as saying “a two turn body, with sprinter speed”. His dam was by Dixie Union which can “get you any type of horse”. The 3rd dam was by Storm Bird out of a Secretariat mare. There should be enough stamina, or Centennial would not have bought him in the first place.

Unified might bring more value because there is another son of Candy Ride, named Mastery, that is also a new sire. Mastery won the Santa Anita Derby, but also had a short career. Uniifed’s median yearlings sold for $23,000, while the median Mastery was $80,000.

Centennial put together a nice two horse partnership with 2 Unified offspring:

Unified – f – Another Ghazo by Haynesfield – $100,000

Unified – c – Farce by Political Force – $50,000

The mare are solid, and both of the nicks are A++, but I might have tried something a little different.

I liked one that is in my top 10 yearling list:

Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000

The unraced AP Indy mare produced a nice horse by Violence. The second dam won over $1,000,000, several G1’s, and was second in BC Juvenile fillies. The nick is only a C+, but I think my mare adds more stamina.

Without the Centennial connection I might not try this sire, but with them in the background it seems worth the risk.

These are my top 10 turf sires. I am not an Wae Front, English Channel or Kitten’s Joy fan so there is not much left.

1. Point of Entry
2. Summer Front
3. Air Force Blue
4. Cairo Prince
5. Big Blue Kitten
6. Mshawish
7. Flintshire
8. Temple City
9. Mizzen Mast
10. American Pharoah

There is not much to choose from. The yearling sales did not provide a lot of good turf ideas. The American Pharoah’s are generally too expensive. This list is really the top 3, and everything else is far back.

The late developing nature of most turf horses just do not fit these sales. I think I would much rather buy a turf oriented mare, and have her babies.

The dust has settled. It is time to prepare for the training sales. What will I be looking for in Florida?

My list has evolved over time. The emphasis is still on stamina, but some speed/precocity is starting to creep in, Gormley, Connect, and Unified all have a chance too be fast.

This is my list of the sires that will have the highest rate of return from their 2020 yearling crop:

1. Midnight Storm ($7,500) – 39 sold, $37 avg, $30 med. Pioneerof the Nile at a discount
2. Gormley ($5,000) – 75 sold, $35 avg, $20 med, Malibu Moon at a discount
3. Honor Code ($20,000) – 54 sold, $48 avg, $23 med, AP Indy at a discount
4. Connect ($15,000) – 59 sold, $51 avg, 30 med, Curlin at a discount
5. Lemon Drop Kid ($15,000) – 18 sold, $51 avg, $59 med, old reliable
6. Dialed In ($15,000) – 59 sold, $40 avg, $25 med, Mineshaft/AP Indy at a discount
7. Frosted ($25,000) – 58 sold, $72 avg, $50 med, Tapit at a discount
8. American Freedom ($6,000) – 72 sold – $27 avg, $20 med, Pulpit/AP Indy at a discount
9. Unified ($10,000) – 65 sold, $44 avg, $23 med, Candy Ride at a discount
10. Cairo Price ($15,000) – 63 sold, $45 avg, $20 med, P of N at a discount

5 freshman sires, 2 second year, and 3 veterans

Maybe I am giving up too soon on Maclean’s Music, Twirling Candy and Tonalist ?

I added one speed horse to my list, Unified, with the hope his offspring can get two turns.

Honor Code and Frosted move up the list because their average yearling price fell by about 50%.

Cairo Prince moves up on the theory this crop will have better mares.

The next 10:

1. Maclean’s Music – not getting routers, Jackie’s Warrior ???
2. Twirling Candy – not finding offspring with mares I like
3. Orb – still the favorite of my “dirty dozen”
4. Tonalist – maybe giving up to early?
5. Union Rags – willing to consider
6. Bernardini – getting cheap enough
7. Hard Spun – willing to consider
8. Mastery – willing to consider, a cheap Candy Ride
9. Liam’s Map – maybe moving into value range
10. Brody’s Cause – median price fell over 65%
11. Noble Mission – almost giving up

Other to think about:

1. Anchor Down – still a possibility
2. Arrogate – is he next years Frosted?
3. Blame – boring, losing faith
4. Super Saver – exiled to Turkey, still some interest
5. Astern – will they get two turns, no more Vancouver?
6. Bal a Bali – longshot?
7. Bayern – lost faith
8. Carpe Diem – lost faith
9. Classic Empire – seems like they will be too expensive
10. Cupid – maybe
11. Exaggerator – losing faith quickly
12. Keen Ice – am I giving up too soon?
13. Klimt – more than just a sprinter?
14. Look at Lucky – value?
15. Midshipman – value?
16. Mohaymen – maybe
17. Practical Joke – a cheap Into Mischief?
18. Runhappy – value, just maybe?
19. Tapiture – value?
20. Tourist – not giving up yet
21. Upstart – not sure

There are certainly many other strategies you could have chosen to build your $1,250,000 portfolio:

1. you could have chosen 4 horses by Into Mischief, there are plenty to choose from
2. you could have chosen either more proven sires, or all freshmen sires
3. you could have tried more “speed oriented” sires
4. you could have tried cheaper sires, and gotten better “physicals”
5. you could have selected more “empty” mares with less running ability, and/or no proven offspring. In the real world this is a popular idea.
6. you could have chosen mares with more proven running ability
7. you could have emphasized more precocious mares
8. you could chose 2 sleepers for $100,000 and 2 more expensive horses for $500,000 each
9. you could have selected 4 horses for $300,000 each, and no sleepers
10. or even 3 sleepers, and a $950,000 horse

Just to show an alternative, let’s try to get the best “physicals” by combining lower priced sires, with unaccomplished (yet well bred) mares.

1. Unified – Fay Na Na by Majestic Warrior – $450,000
2. Upstart – Miss Baby Betty by Warriors Reward – $410,000
3. Gormley – Crossing the Tape by Johannesburg – $270,000
4. Klimt – Flotus by Eskendereyea – $115,000

The sires are all $10,000 and none or the mares ever won a single race. These must be great looking horses. They should have well above average speed. This is an extreme idea, but it is worth thinking about.

Or maybe the all freshmen sire portfolio:

1. Practical Joke – Evita’s Sister by Candy Ride – $400,000
2. Mastery – Natural Rush by Indian Charlie – $310,000
3. Gun Runner – Midnight Bliss by Midnight Lute – $300,000
4. Connect – Jazz Time by Johannesburg – $210,000

Here is the fantasy horse racing game I am proposing:

1. pick 4 horses from the Keeneland 2020 yearling sale
2. the total paid cannot exceed $1,250,000
3. the least expensive horse can be $100,000
4. you cannot choose a horse selected by a major partnership operations
5. the winner is the most purse money in Grade 1 races for the next 3 seasons (2021, 2022, and 2023)

This is a competition to build “high upside” horses, not horses that will have a high rate of return, or achieve sire status. It makes you think about the best strategy to achieve that goal. Here was my process:

1. Of all the top $100,000+ sires my favorite remains Pionnerof the Nile, there are about 10 to choose from
2. I want a mare that adds stamina, and was a solid runner, and a solid producer. Others might choose different criteria. What would you choose?
3. I choose hip #440 for $450,000. The mare Temple Street was twice graded stakes placed, and has produced an $800,000 winner and a $400,000 winner. She adds stamina influences Street Cry, Machiavellean, AP Indy, and Pleasant Colony to the pedigree.
4. To balance out my slightly expensive horse I need a “sleeper”. Here I choose #2695 for. just $100,000, a son of Classic Empire (a grandson of Pioneer of the Nile). The mare Miss Mambo ran 3rd in the G1 Thousand Guineas, and also produced two $150,000 winners (one of those winners also produced $1,000,000 winner Gormley). On the pedigree side she adds stamina through Kingmambo, Strawberry Road and Vaguely Noble. That leaves $700,000 for the last two horses.
5. Of the new sires I have to try Arrogate. Since Arrogate was not precocious I think you get some value here. Most folks are trying to add speed/precocity to Arrogate, but being an arrogant bastard I will want to add stamina. Here I find #1581 for $350,000. The mare Star Act is by Street Cry and won $150,000, but second dam is a $1,000,000 winner by the great Dynaformer, the mare Starrer. This is the ultimate plodder/plodder that pinhookers and breeders hate. I am still searching for the next Barbaro (a son of Dynaformer).
6. That gives me 3 great sires, with running and producing mares with great stamina families. I have $350,000 left for my last horse.
7. I was interested to learn the story of the “unicorn” Union Rags. The only horse precocious enough to win the Champagne Stakes, but with enough stamina to win the Belmont Stakes. This is Union Rag’s sixth crop and pinhookers/breeders are getting bored. I select #990 for $350,000. The mare is by the great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway. She won $150,000 herself, and produced two $500,000 winners. The 2nd dam is $1,500,000 winner of 6 graded stakes races, Gold Mover.

This will be a fun group to follow:

1. Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000
2. Arrogate – Star Act by Street Cry – $350,000
3. Union Rags – Giant Mover by Giant’s Causeway – $350,000
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000

When you get old you will find that you start dozing off at 9:30pm, and then waking up at 4:00am. To pass the time you start handicapping the Monday races at Parx.

This is my entry into a contest at HorsePlayers.com. The event is a qualifier (or satellite in poker terms) for a NHC qualifier on Friday. In this event 20% of the field get a $75 entry into the Friday qualifier (the cost of this event is $18, but you get the PP’s for free). The contest is 8 races with a $2 mythical win/place on each race. All choices are made by first post, often called Pick & Pray.

This will be an example of how breeding knowledge can help your handicapping.

This will also be my first attempt at writing a handicapping website. I have played with this idea for a few years, but never got started.

Let’s summarize my handicapping in a few bullet points:

1. Why is this horse in this race today? This is the question posed in a chapter by the great author and handicapper Steve Davidowitz. You must understand the conditions of the race, and how that effects each competitor. In a way you might call this “owner handicapping.”
2. Can I find a trainer in this race that the public does not fully appreciate? The great author and handicapper Mark Cramer wrote an excellent book called Kinky Trainers. I am not looking for the “best” trainer, but rather the trainer that is often under bet.
3. Which horse is most likely to improve? This is the question I ask before every race. I rely heavily on the work of the incomparable Len Ragozin. In a great old series of cassette tapes he explained the patterns of thoroughbred performance better than any other handicapping resource.

I also believe in choosing your races very carefully. Here is the system I will use.

A = my best idea, usually a strong trainer/owner angle

B = solid idea, a solid idea or a bad favorite I want to take a shot against

C = C is for crazy, this is a separate category of idea that do not fit my normal patten, but are worth thinking about

D = are race I have no strong opinion about, or cannot find any longshot angle

F = I like the favorite, but fear he will be over-bet

Parx – Race 3 – $40,000 MC – (everything is dirt and wet conditions are expected)

A = #5 One Niner Tango – On the surface the trainer has not won a race at the meet, but she was 15% in 2019 and 2018. This horse shows as sold at Keeneland September yearling sale in 2018 for $60,000. In fact it was RNAed for that price by “dirty rotten” owner/breeders, White Fox Farms. They kept the horse and ae racing it themselves. This is a son of Competitive Edge that Eclipse guys think is a great sprint sire. Low profile jockey Navin Mangalee has won 2 races fro this trainer.

I like this horse so much I will also make it an mythical claim for $40,000

Race 4 – $5,000 nw 2x 6m

D = #10 This is a horrible race for claimers that have not won 2 races in 6 months. My pick is 10 year old that has won $400,000 is 79 starts. My guess is that that is roughly a breakeven horse over 9 years of racing. This is a race i would never bet, but in a contest you have to make a choice.

Race 5 – $20,000 Waiver MC

B = #6 – Knockout Kick – You must understand the conditions of this race. Penn-bred’s are not subject to claim in this field. My friends at Pewter Stables have nice looking 2nd time starter. This son of Shackleford looks like a nice sprinter, and cannot be claimed. Not sure i will get the 7-2 morning line, but let’s pray.

Race 6 – $12,000 staight claimer

A = # 5 – Izzadora Bella – A good old fashion straight claiming race. Spedale Family Racing is a new group that has been winning at 20% and at nice prices. Here they get top jockey Mychel Sanchez (who rode Quick Tempo for us). This is a trainer/owner angle I love in these low level races.

Race 7 – MSW $40,000 2yr old

A = #6 – Mundle of Joy – Kate DeMasi is not the best first time out, but the Spedale Family owns part of this horse. Munnings are great in the mud. The dam is by Kitten’s Joy, so you think turf, but she was a dirt sprinter.

Race 8 – Starter Optional Claimer $40,000

C #2 Tiz Gracie – I loved the #3 but he scratched, I should take the favorite. I just cannot trust the claimers in this spot, so I will throw a “hail Mary” and try a closer

Race 9 – Pa-bred 1x allowance

D = #2 – nothing exciting in here, maybe the #3 was a better speculation, not sure what to make of John Servis these days

Race 10 – $7,500 claimers nw3 lifetime

C = #11 – Valerie First – This trainer won some races a few years ago, but this is his first start of 2020. The horse fits the conditions, and attracts top jockey Mychel Sanchez.

This is a fun card, with a decent amount of owner/trainers angles.

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Now I remember why I do not play Parx very often. I am not very good. I finished 18th of 30 contestants. The winning score was $51.00, the qualifying score was just $31.00, but I managed just $14.00. Breakeven was $32.00 (8 races x $2 win/place). I did not know that Sanchez was off his mounts for COVID, and the track was back to fast by the 5th race.

1. I have learned that writing this blog has improved my educational process. There are dozens of things I would have already forgotten if I did not have written record.
2. I have invested in 4 partnership horses. Quick Tempo has bee quite successful, and the other 3 are works in progress. I liked the process that Dare to Dream Stable used to select a horse from the March Ocala sale, so I took a chance with them. It has been a great learning process to watch how QT’s brief career has been managed.
3. I have really learned how to evaluate and compare each of the offerings of the larger partnership operations. I always watched West Point, Eclipse, Donegal, Centennial, Ten Strike, and Starlight from a distance, but now I have a specific understanding of how they operate.
4. I have learned a great deal about the smaller partnership operations. From the medium size guys like Little Red Feather, all the way down to the one horse operations like Blue Streak or Bloodlines, I have carefully watched how each of them do business.
5. I have begun to develop a horse selection strategy. I have watched what the “big guys” do, but i have also included some of my own opinions into the process. I understand the bias in the industry toward speed/precocity, but I continue to find value with an approach that emphasizes stamina. I have had great discussions with Jerry Crawford at Donegal, and Don Little at Centennial, about horse selections strategies that emphasize stamina. I continue to find similarities between selecting horse and selecting stocks for institutional investors.
6. I selected some successful horses on paper from the first sale I ever watched. Get Her Number was $45,000 selection from the Ocala sale, and he went on the win the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. Brooklyn Strong was a $5,000 purchase at the Ocala sale, that won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont. Maybe that was just beginner’s luck, but it does show that good horses are available at relatively inexpensive prices.
7. I have watched the yearling sales, and selected many horses to follow. I have considered a variety of different strategies and picked horses for each strategy. I am leaning toward yearlings, rather than training sales horses, but I have not made that decision yet.
8. I came very close to investing in a West Point colt by Connect, and the Eclipse filly by Air Force Blue. If either of these horses are successful I will be very sorry. If the economic outlook had been a little better, I would have been an investor. I still have some small partnership yearlings to consider.
9. I leaned about the process of buying mares in foal at the Keeneland November sale. In the long run this might be the best way to buy horses, but it will take incredible patience.
10. I have improved my handicapping skills by learning so much about the sales process. I now have a much better understanding of 2 year old races.

The first list is the issues I have written about in the first 6 months, the second list is things I have actually done, or have happened:

1. Intro: What is a successful horse? May 31, 2020
2. Learned about mysterious “withdrawals” from sales
3. Began to understand “multiples” paid at training sales
4. Explained “road less traveled” horse selection strategy
5. Named the venture Quixote Racing Stable
6. Applied the new strategy to each of the 20 horses
7. Explained a strategy for rating dams
8. Considered training sales vs yearling sales
9. Investing in horses vs investing in stocks
10. Listened to Ten Strike podcast, beginning debate about speed vs plodders 6/22
11. First list of favorite sires, 6/21
12. Started to understand ROI vs upside debate from Ten Strike podcast
13. Began to understand “nicks” 6/22
14. First exposure to “data analytics” , 6/23
15. First understand of “empty mare” strategy of Starlight
16. Thinking through the different ways of buying horses, 8/19
17. A withdrawn sale horse wins at Woodbine, Too Legit
18. The importance of learning
19. Thinking about “empty mare” horses, Arabian Prince
20. Speed oriented Authentic wins the Kentucky Derby, plodders are crushed
21. Kenwood discusses performance
22. The story from the beginning 9/9
23. MyRacehorse.com interview 9/13
24. Learning the story of Union Rags
25. Thinking about the career of a sire, 9/26
26. Get Her Number wins the Grade 1 American Pharoah, 9/27
27. Thinking about different yearling strategies, 9/28
28. The structure of sires, 10/2
29. Thinking About series after yearling sales
30. 5 big questions
31. Learned about the importance of buying a sire
32. Learned about the Pedigree Goddess website
33. Learning from the BC Juvenile horses
34. Thinking about the Derby preps, 11/8

1. Invested $2,000 (for 2%) in Dare to Dream partnership 6/10, named Quick Tempo
2. Selected 20 horses from Ocala Sale 6/12, including G! winner Get Her Number
3. Made my first mythical claim of Judicial Restraint
4. Invested with Dare to Dream, named Blonde on Tap 6/12
5. Studied the investments of 14 different partnerships
6. Invested in 2.5% of Song Saver with Pewter Stables 6/15
7. Invested in 3% of Tonalistic with Hibiscus Stable 6/19
8. Selected the “Arrogant Bastard portfolio” of yearlings by looking back at 2019 Keeneland sale, 6/21
9. Selected a Bargain Basement Yearling portfolio 6/22
10. Selected 6 horses from Timonium sale 7/1
11. Began to evaluate offers from West Point and Eclipse
12. Selected 20 horses from July Ocala sale
13. Missed my chance to invest in Ninja Kitten with Zilla, 7/18
14. First review of selected horses, 7/18
15. First ranking of over 45 partnerships
16. In depth review of Donegal, 8/5
17. In depth review of Starlight, 8/5
18. In depth review of Ten Strike, 8/5
19. In depth review of West Point, 8/6
20. In depth review of Eclipse, 8/6
21. In depth review of Centennial, 8/6
22. In depth review of Bourbon Lane, 8/6
23. in depth review of MyRacehorse.com, 8/6
24. First race of a selected horse, Get Her Number for Peter Miller
25. Tonalistic hurt in stall accident, 8/20
26. Quick Tempo wins his first race, timing controversy, 8/22
27. Blonde on Tap loses her first race 8/24
28. Mythical claim of Ames Mister at Ellis
29. Attended yearling sale at Lone Star Park
30. Review of Little Red Feather
31. Mythical claim of Royal Suspect
32. My ranking of 135 sires
33. Brooklyn Strong, an Ocala selection, wins at Delaware
34. Eclipse buys an interesting Air Force Blue
35. The yearling sales end, and I build several different portfolios, 9/19
36. Blonde of Tap loses 2nd race, and Quick Tempo losses at Woodbine
37. Evaluated all the West Point and Eclipse yearling offers
38. Rated all the partnerships purchases
39. Ranked 50 partnerships after yearlings sales
40. Talked with Don Little of Centennial, also Jerry Crawford, at Donegal, 10/10
41. Selected 20 horse from the Ocala yearling sales, bargain horses
42. Picked “just one” yearling, Honor Code from the mare Ermine Slippers
43. Claimed Scott Pond at Keeneland
44. Quick Tempo ships to Parx and wins an allowance race, with a 87 Beyer, making him the 8th fastest two year old
45. Quick Tempo finishs 2nd is the Nyquist Stakes on the undercard of the Breeders Cup. Chad Brown’s Highly Motivated wins in course record time
46. Completed top 10 yearling list, 11/9
47. Selected 10 mares in foal at Keeneland sale
48. Selected 10 weanlings at Keeneland sale, 11/19, and one “fancy” one
49. Built yearling portfolios to compete with, Centennial, Donegal and MyRacehorsecom
50. Invested in MyRacehorse.com portfolio of 14 horses for $50, 11/21

Let’s try to build a $3 million dollar portfolio of conventionally bred expensive horses with these general rules:

1. avoid the most popular sires (Into Mischief, Constitution, Uncle Mo)
2. avoid sires with little speed, or are late developers
3. dam is a runner and/or producer
4. dam contributes to precocity

Conventional Portfolio

1. Candy Ride – Dixie City by Dixie Union, $575,000, Repole
2. Quality Road – House Rules by Distorted Humor, $470,000, Glen Hill Farm
3. American Pharoah by Slow Sand by Dixieland Band, $400,000, My Meadowview
4. Practical Joke – Evita’s Sister by Candy Ride, $400,000, Klaravich
5. Mastery – Bendable by Horse Greeley, $370,000, Winchell
6. Classic Empire – Victory Party by Yankee Victor, $350,000, Winchell
7. Not This Time – Silent Candy by Candy Ride, $260,000, Winchell
8. Hard Spun – Secret File by Smart Strike, $240,000, Radley
9. Liam’s Map – Pastel Gal by Lemon Drop Kid, $160,000, Repole
10. Munnings – Awesome Fire by Strong Contender, $100,000, Cromwell

This is a very normal group of horses. I think most folks would call them balanced. The sires are a mix of proven and new. The dams are all runners, and contribute some precocity.

Starlight

Starlight bought about 30 horses over $100,000. About half were conventional, and the other half were “empty mares”. These were expensive horse where the mare had little running ability, and had not produced significant winners. The idea is to get great physical specimens, and not pay up for the racing accomplishments of the mare.

This is my $3 million Starlight “empty mare” portfolio:

1. Uncle Mo – Mezinka, $585,000, unraced, first foal
2. Gun Runner – Magical Weekend, $625,000, 1 win, 1 winner
3. Quality Road – Chapel, $620,000, unplaced, 1 winner
4. Union Rags – Ms. Short Fuse, $560,000, 1 win, no winners
5. Twirling Candy – Giant Win, $385,000, unraced, 2 winners
6. Empire Maker – Charlatana, $330,000, 1 win, first foal

Which do you like?

1. Arrogant Bastard 2, plodders/plodders
2. Donegal
3. Centennial
4. MyRacehorse.com
5. Conventional
6. Starlight

I was surprised that Myracehorse.com sold old all its horses very quickly. All that is left is a offer to buy .001% of 14 yearlings for $50. I really did want to buy a share in their Honor Code filly, but I missed my chance.

Let’s look at their group:

Some of these were bought in partnership with Spendthrift Farm, the price I show is the total paid at auction

1. Into Mischief – Cayla by Cherokee Run – $600,000, ok mare, not a IM fan, C
2. Uncle Mo – Margaret Reay by Pioneerof the Nile, $400,000, good mare, not a UM fan, C+
3. War Front – Key to My Heart – $360,000, great mare, decent turf idea, expensive, B
4. Empire Maker – Tapitry by Tapit – $360,000, solid mare, reasonable, B+
5. Frosted – More Oats Please by Smart Strike, $250,000, solid mare, my favorite, A-
6. Gun Runner – Classofsixtythree by Include, $250,000, good mare, B
7. Not This Time – Awe Hush by Awesome Again, $220,000, ok mare, expensive, B
8. Honor Code – Exonerated by Johannesburg, $210,000, good mare, A-
9. Into Mischief – Latte Da by Tiznow, $195,000, good family, B
10. Bernardini – Midnight Sweetie by Midnight Lute, $185,000, decent family, B+
11. Looking at Lucky – Ambleside Park by Fusaichi Pegasus, $115,000, good mare, B
12. Kantharos – Spieghtstown Belle by Spieghtstown, $85,000, sprint oriented, C
13. Classic Empire – Consecrate by Pulpit, $80,000, ok mare, good price, B+
14. Connect – Athenian Beauty by Corinthian, $50,000, too sprint oriented, B-

The more I looked, the more I liked this portfolio. Almost all the mares were decent stamina oriented horses, and some of the families were interesting. Compared to the “empty mare” strategy of some of the other groups, this portfolio was refreshing. This is actually a decent portfolio of “conventional” horses. I would prefer not to chase the Into Mischief’s, but the other choices were above average

In fact, I just bought .001% of this portfolio for $50. The transaction took about 2 minutes to complete. Maybe this is the future of partnership investing. I am still concerned this group is a little over-promotional, and I am not 100% sure I understand their financial business model.

I did just get 14 decent horses to follow and keep track of. For $50, that is a good deal. I am looking at this as an educational experience.

So they paid $3,360,000 for 14 horses.

To compete with them I will take my 9 that I used vs Donegal, and add a few more:

1. Pioneerof the Nile – Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy. $625,000 my favorite
2. Gun Runner – Truthful by Bodemeister $420,000 from Centennial
3. Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya $350,000 from Donegal
4. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda by Malibu Moon, $250,000 from Eclipse
5. Summer Front – Silver Reunion by Harlan’s Holiday, $250,000
6. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker, $140,000, Donegal

1. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000 from Centennial
2. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180,000
3. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat $150,000
4. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140,000
5. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000 from West Point
6. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100,000
7. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000
8. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200,000
9. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000

My portfolio is about $3,400,000

That portfolio is cheating because I use other partnership horses. Let’s try for a $3,400,000 portfolio with no cheating.

No Cheating

1. Pioneerof the Nile – Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy. $625,000, my favorite, Presidential, $175,000, 2nd in Texas Derby
2. Medaglia d’Oro – Dame Dorthy by Bernardini, $650,000, Principe d’Oro $45,000 MSW winner at AQ
3. Arrogate – Star Act by Street Cry, $350,000, Oglethorpe $18,000, 2nd MSW AQ
4. Union Rags – Giant Mover by Giant’s Causeway, $330,000, Bold Courage 3 works at Ellis
5. Gormley – Crossing the Tape by Johannsburg, $270,000, Celestial Finish, $54,000 allowance winner at FG
6. Summer Front – Silver Reunion by Harlan’s Holiday, $250,000, Ever Summer, $8,000, not working
7. Honor Code – Private Gift by Unbridled, $240,000, no races
8. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo $200,000, Mazuma, $47,000
9. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180,000, Swing Shift, $43,000, MSW winner at GP. 10th in Jeff Ruby Stakes
10. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat $150,000, Portsmouth, $38,000 still trying MSW as Canterbury
11. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000, Balinese, $18,000, 2nd in MC at Aqu
12. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140,000, Camaro, $3,000, still trying at Hawthorne
13. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo. $100,000, Classic King,$3,000, still trying at Indiana
14. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100,000, Raghadan, no races
15. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000, Rikio, $1.000, just starting at KE
16. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000, Blazing Summer, $53,000, allowance winner at Indiana
17. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000, Golden Gal, no races
18. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000, Majority Partner, $4,000, just starting in NY
19. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000, Lemon Last, no races
20. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000, PV Rengade, working at BEL

This is a $3,400,000 portfolio with no help from other partnerships. My average price is a little lower, so I have more horses. These are stamina sires bred to stamina mares, or as Liz Crow calls them “plodders bred to plodders”. The mare ares usually runners and producers and often the 2nd dam is a strong stamina influence.

I challenge myracehorse.com to a duel at 20 paces.

I wish I could by 1% of this portfolio for $33,000, but throw is $50,000/horse in expenses and it would be $43,000.

I put together a fairly cheap collection of weanlings, but now I want just one fancy horse to cheer for. I started at the top of the weanling list. I went past several Justify’s and American Pharoah’s and stopped at this horse:

Arrogate – Goose Lemon Drop by Elusive Quality, $150,000

Arrogate might be the best example of non-precocity. He did not break his maiden until June 5th, but 75 days later won the Travers, and then the BC Classic that fall. Baffert said he was the best horse he has ever seen run. Arrogate’s early death also makes him a controversial sire. His yearlings sold well, averaging $227,000. Most were bred to speed oriented and precocious mares, but my choice is different.

Let me tell you the story of mom:

In 1980 a client of controversial Florida trainer Martin Wolfsen paid $43,000 for a yearling filly by Al Hataab. Wolfsen’s father, Louis, was the inventor of the “hostile tender offer” and also bribed a Supreme Court judge. Hat Tab Girl was a nice allowance horse that won 6 races and $94,000.

One of Hat Tab Girl’s first foals was a son of Miswaki named Black Tie Affair, who won over $3 million and the 1991 BC Classic. Hat Tab Miss had a daughter that was sired by Danzig, and purchased by Katsumi Yoshida, he paid $450,000 for this baby. Black Tie Kiss won $200,000 in Japan in a brief 11 race career.

The first thing Yoshida did was breed her to the great Lemon Drop Kid. That baby was named Kiss the Kid, who $860,000 and was 3rd in the Donn Handicap. Yoshida went right back to LDK, and produced a daughter named Lemon Kiss. Lemon Kiss won a few small stakes and $150,000, but one her first babies was the G1 winner Lochte ($772,000). A few years later they tried mating Lemon Kiss with Elusive Quality, and the Low’s bought the baby for $350,000 and named her Goose Lemon Drop. Later Lemon Kiss was sold in foal to Distorted Humor for over $1,000,000.

Goose Lemon Drop’s racing career never worked out, despite her fancy family. She tried to break her maiden 15 times, but only got a few 2nd’s. She did run two respectable Equibase figs of 84 and 82. She was never in a claimer, and the Low’s bred her to Violence and sold her in foal for $215,000. That baby is now named Vida Yellow and is working at Churchill. The new owner’s Town & Country, bred GLD to Arrogate, and that is the weanling sold Keeneland.

In many ways this is my favorite type of horse. A stamina oriented sire not know for precocity, bred to a stamina oriented female family. Lemon Drop Kid was my favorite horse, so let’s mix him with the fastest horse Baffert has ever seen and see what happens. I am sure the pinhookers did not want to pay up for a son of Arrogate and a stamina oriented family.

I admit it, I am a cheap bastard. It is fun to dream about nice mares bred to sires I like, but those come at a price.

Here I am looking for sires I can tolerate, bred to mares that have at least a small amount of talent or pedigree.

Let’s see what I can find for $15,000 or less:

1. Bal a Bali – Selenite by Cosmonaut (by LDK) 5w, $400,000, 109, nick = NR, $15,000
2. Exaggerator – Storm Coming by Hard Spun 0w, $3,000, 75, Nick = A++ (same as Good Magic), $15,000
3. Tapiture – Chasing the Moon by Flower Alley, 3w, $95,000, 89, $14,000
4. Tapwrit – Roman Mistress by Fusaichi Pegasus, 1w, $25,000, 86, $13,000
5. Violence – Phoenix Park by Looking at Lucky, 1w, $38,000, 89, nick = B+, $13,000
6. The Factor – Oui Bear by Rock Hard Ten, 3w, $73,000, 86, nick = B+, $12,000
7. American Freedom – Sunset Strip by hard Spun 2w, $40,000, 87, nick = A++, $12,000
8. Mshawish – Honeymoon Cruise by Archarcharch, 5w, $100,000, 83, nick = B, $11,000
9. Tourist – She’ll Do by Hard Spun, 0w, $28,000, 86, $10.000
10. Maclean’s Music – Diamond Maker by Mineshaft, 2w, $62,000, 75, nick = B+, $10,000

This is a reasonable group of horses. They might not be exciting buy they are cheap. All the mares at least ran modestly competitive figures, and won some money.

I guess the problem is you end paying to stable the mare and eventually the baby. Even if you start for only a $10,000 investment the eventual cost could add up fast. Some day I need to learn about the costs of stabling mares and young foals.

My initial impression is that buying weanlings seems to be a very high risk undertaking. It seems to increase the chance you will end up with nothing.

On the other hand this might be the perfect time to buy horses that the pinhookers already know will not be ready for the training sales.

Let’s try to add some of our favorite sires:

1. Point of Entry – Neshama by Sligo Bay, $60,000, nick = D
2. Point of Entry – Miss Isella by Silver Charm, $13,000, nick = A
3. Honor Code – Cloak of Secrecy by Scat Daddy, $14,000. nick = C
4. Cloud Computing – Bide a Wee Island by Sligo Bay, $25,000, nick = B
5. Connect – Prize Catch by AP Indy, $20,000, nick = B+
6. Lemon Drop Kid – Aquapazza by Stormy Atlantic, $60,000, nick = B
7. Oscar Performance – Sparkle Factor by Arch, $40,000, nick = B+
8. Bolt d’ Oro – Hamsin by Dynaformer, $32,000, nick = B
9. Destin – Just Jenda by Menifee, $25,000, nick = D
10. Twirling Candy – Sweet Cat by Kitten’s Joy, $32,000, nick = A++

This group all has mare that were solid stamina runners and/or producers. There were some better turf pedigrees available.

It is hard to tell how many of these horses will be pinhooked into the training sales. I tried to find buyers that were primarily folks that raced.

The focus of this blog is learning, so in that spirit let’s rethink the sire Hard Spun.

To me Hard Spun’s tend to precocious sprinters. His offspring’s Average Winning Distance is a below average 7.3 furlongs. Hard Spun’s big win was the 7f King’s Bishop (now Allen Jerkins). Hard Spun is a son of the sprinter Danzig. For a stud fee of $35,000, he was an easy “toss out”. At best he is a Cox/Crow miler who you hope can go further.

Let’s rethink that:

1. Hard Spun was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby to Street Sense, 2nd in the BC Classic to Curlin
2. Hard Spun’s dam was by stamina influence Turkoman (a son of Alydar)
3. Hard Spun has produced some distance running horses (especially in Australia)
4. Hard Spun is the sire of Wicked Strong
5. Caddo River

Caddo River

What really made me rethink Hard Spun was the new TDN “Rising Star” named Caddo River.

CR is a son of Hard Spun, trained by Brad Cox, and owned by Shortleaf Stable. Shortleaf is owned by John Ed Anthony, a Arkansas based timber executive. Mr. Anthony used to own Loblolly Stable which campaigned Temperance Hill, Pine Bluff, and Prairie Bayou.

CR won a very impressive flat mile MSW race at Churchill. He is my new favorite to win the Arkansas Derby. CR’s mom was a granddaughter of AP Indy (through his son Congrats). She won a small stake at 1 1/16 mile at Laurel, and was a $130,000 yearling.

Adding Some Hard Spun’s

Let’s add some offspring of Hard Spun to our mythical yearling collection:

1. Wave the Flag by Empire Maker, $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick
2. Curry Cat by Tale of the Cat, $80,000, Crow, B nick
3. Joh Jah by Street Sense, $80,000, Steve Young agent for ???, A+ nick
4. Veela by Bartok, $30,000, Hoppel’s Horse, A++ nick
5. Coal and Ice by Tapit, $18,000, Mile Cleere, A+ nick

Just for fun let’s buy 10 mares at the Keeneland Breeding Stock Sale. It will take a while for these babies to get to the racetrack, but we have to start somewhere.

I will look for fairly young mares with pedigrees I think bring stamina to the table. I will look for them to be in foal to sires I rate highly. Let’s see what we can get for say between $60,000 and $10,000.

What I show here first is the covering sire that the mare is in foal to, then mare and her racing history (wins, $ earned, equibase fig), and the total cost of the mare in foal

1. Good Magic – Miss Monk by Blame 1w, $40,000, 87, nick D, $60,000
2. Unified – Bemus Point by Bernardini 2w, $55,000, 85, nick A, $58,000
3. Tonalist – New Wave by Tale of the Cat, 3w, $200,000, nick A++, $55,000
4. Maclean’s Music – Queen Bernardina by Bernardini 2w, $50,000 94, A++, $50,000
5. Practical Joke – Court of Love by Lemon Drop Kid 1w. $23,000, 90, A+, $47,000
6. Bolt d’Oro – Alette by Lemon Drop Kid, 6w, $191,000, 103, B, $45,000
7. Summer Front – Chipolata by Muhtathir 3w, $300,000, 108, A, $40,000
8. Mendelssohn – Queenardini by Bernardini, 1w, $47,000, 75, B+, $40,000
9. The Factor – After Thought by Fusaichi Pegasus 1w, $43,000, 88, A++, $35,000
10. Palace Malice – Ermine Slippers by El Prado 1w, $61,000, 99, B+, $20,000

I really like this group of horses. This might be a great way to buy a horse. It might be tricky to evaluate the problem pregnancy issues, but there is much to be learned.

Remember that the cost also includes the stud fee of the covering sire.

The Centennial portfolio is great, but I am not 100% convinced by the “empty mare” theory. What would I have done with $1,000,000 to buy four horses?

I would have tried to find sires I like, and mare with “sneaky good” results and pedigree.

1. Pioneerof the Nile – Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy. $625,000
2. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo $200,000
3. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication $120,000
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo. $100,000

I guess if I had to pick a fancy expensive sire it would be Pioneerof the Nile. Rather than try to find his sons for a discount, if I had the money I would just buy the real thing. Combining Empire Maker and a Lord At War mare, is the sire I like the most. Here I get to use Twirling Candy as the broodmare sire. The mare won $170,000 sprinting for John Sadler. The second dam is the producer of Classic Empire, and the 3rd dam was placed in two Grade 1 races. If I had to buy a fancy horse, this would be my choice. He has already been named Presidential, and will race for Courtland Farm.

It is difficult to find a top quality turf sire. Right now American Pharoah is maybe the best young turf sire. Here I combine American Pharoah with a daughter of the great Galileo. Moth ran a solid 3rd in the Thousand Guineas, and has produced a $300,000 winner. This is a great example of “sneaky pedigree”. The second dam is by Seattle Slew and is a great producer and a half sister to a G1 winner. This horse was a bargain for $200,000, and will be raced by Winchell Thorougbreds.

Connect is a son of Curlin that has a chance to be a good sire. The dam won $150,000 and is by the last great son of Seattle Slew, Vindication. The 2nd dam was a stakes winner, and produced a stakes winner. The 3rd dam produced two $500,000 winners. This is the same cross as Exaggerator.

Classic Empire is a sire I love, but thought he would be too expensive.

Let’s compare the Donegal portfolio with the Centennial portfolio that I looked at earlier.

Centennial has:

1. Gun Runner – Truthful by Bodemeister $420,000, Forthright, not working, no races
2. Nyquist – Chatillion by Ghostzapper $300,000, Greg’s Honor, working in Florida, 4 MSW trys in NY
3. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000, Videri, working in Florida, no races
4. Street Sense – Skylar’s Pass by The Factor $140,000, Mugged, working in NY, 1 MSW try in NY

I like Gun Runner and Nyquist, much better than the Uncle Mo’s of Donegal, and the Honor Code is even better.

Centennial has pushed the empty mare strategy to the extreme here. None of the four mares did anything, but all the extended families are great, and emphasize stamina. Two of the choices are the mare’s first foal. Maybe this approach is too high risk, but after talking with Don Little (the founder of Centennial), I was mildly convinced the strategy was viable.

THERE IT IS, I LIKED THE CENTENNIAL HORSES MUCH BETTER THAN THE UNCLE MO’S OF DONEGAL, ONE OF WHICH BECAME BELMONT STAKES WINNER MO DONEGAL.

I received an e-mail today with what Donegal Partners calls Derby Dreams 14. They have 8 colts in a partnership with the goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has raced Arklow, Keen Ice, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado. I had a very nice conversation with their founder, Jerry Crawford, this summer. He believes in buying horses with the stamina to get 1 1/4 miles.

This is a very nice collection of horses. You can buy 1% for low to mid 5 figures (for details, contact them directly, I hesitate to disclose things that come in private e-mails). Donegal is in the middle as far as expenses. Well less than West Point/Eclipse, more than the smaller guys.

I love the Curlin, Street Sense, and Kitten’s Joy colts. I am not a fan of the Uncle Mo’s, that is my bias. Most people would disagree with me. I am also not thrilled with the Hard Spun colt. I have a neutral opinion on the Distorted Humor and Exaggerator colts. It seems that Donegal relies heavily on “heart scores” to measure stamina, and not so much on pedigree. That may be a great approach, but I am not sold just yet.

Overall the Donegal’s portfolio of horses is maybe a little behind Centennial, but it is light years better than Ten Strike or Starlight. To me the Donegal top three were better than any of the expensive horses that West Point or Eclipse bought. If the Uncle Mo’s were replaced by some more ideas like the top three, I would be an investor.

Here is the Donegal group:

1. Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya $350,000 (spectacular horse), Sweeping Giant, nothing since September 2021, 2nd at Saratoga MSW
2. Street Sense – Wedding Jitters by Broken Vow $125,000 (really nice)Knot the One, not working, 1 MSW try at Monmouth
3. Kitten’s Joy – Elemntar by More Than Ready $150,000 (maybe Arklow II), Ready to Purrform, won the Laurel Futurity, $141,000, 2nd in Pimlico Stakes
4. Uncle Mo – Runaway Ready by Mr. Greeley $400,000 (they own 1/2), Lundberg, working at Oaklawn, bad in MC at Oaklawn
5. Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown by Pulpit $250,000, Mo Donegal, Won the G2 Remsen, Wood Memorial, and Belmont Stakes, 1,500,000
6. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker $140,000 (more of a miler to me), Tricolour claimed at FG for $40,000
7. Distorted Humor – Namaskara by Giant’s Causeway $130,000 (solid), Gooch Go Bragh, 5 tries to break maiden, has won $40,000, claimed for $50,000 by Danny Gargan
8. Exaggerator – Lookingforchange by Gilded Time $70,000 (ok, Gilded Time?), Hyperbolist, working at FG, 5 bad MSW tries at EVG

If you think Uncle Mo is a great source of stamina, then this is a very resonable group of horse. If you think that the Uncle Mo is just another Indian Charlie sprinter that had a few good races, then the group only gets a B, maybe a B+.

Here is the Arrogant Bastard 2 portfolio to compete with Donegal:

1. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000, Videri, working in Florida
2. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180,000, Swing Shift, working in Florida
3. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat $150,000, Portsmouth, 3 tries in MSW in California
4. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140,000, Camargo, 3 tries at MC at OP
5. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000, MSW winner at SA
6. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100,000, Raghadan, not working
7. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000, 3 tries MSW at SA
8. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200,000, Mazuma, 3 tries MSW at FG
9. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000, Classic King , not working

My horses were a little less expensive so I took 9 to reach the roughly $1,400,000 that Donegal spent.

I am sure that 95% of investors would feel more “comfortable” with the Donegal portfolio, only really arrogant bastards would believe in the bottom portfolio.

The results will be in two+ years, may the best man win.

The next group is the sires whose first offspring will be born in the Spring of 2021.

1. Flameway – interesting son of Scat Daddy, great female pedigree, maybe my favorite of this class, $7,500 rating A-
2. Demarchelier – maybe over-rating because turf sires are rare, pedigree is only ok, $5,000 rating B+
3. Catholic Boy – good turf and dirt, not really a. More Than Ready fan, but willing to consider $25,000 rating B
4. Vino Rosso – a late developer that has some merit, $25,000 rating B
5. Preservationist – a very late developing son of Arch, need to learn more, $10,000 rating B
6. Coal Front – interesting pedigree, grandson of Bernardini, things to like, $5,000 rating B
7. Enticed – an ok son of Medaglia d’Oro, pedigree is interesting, willing to consider, $7,500 rating B-
8. Leofric – a late developing Candy Ride, willing to consider, $7,500 rating B-
9. Lost Treasure – a turf sprinter, with some stamina pedigree, $5,000
10. Omaha Beach – not sure what to make of him, $35,000 rating C
11. Yoshida – not really a Sunday Slience fan, $15,000 rating C
12. Qurbaan – not a Speightstown fan, pass, $5,000 rating C
13. Catalina Cruiser – a sprinter with some stamina pedigree, $15,000 rating C-
14. Shagaf – Indiana bargain, $2,500 rating C-
15. Heart to Heart – not an English Channel fan, $5,000 rating C-
16. Mitole – to me just a sprinter, $15,000 D
17. Audible- Not a fan of into Mischief or the female family. $22,500 rating D
18. Maximus Mischief – just a sprinter $7,500 rating D
19. World of Trouble – not a Jason Servis fan, pass, $15,000 rating F

This class is not very interesting. I guess Vino Rosso and Catholic Boy are solid stamina types, but not that exciting. The lack of turf sires is noticeable.

The breeding stock sale brings in two new classes of sires that we need to rank.

The first group in the new weanlings. Let’s rank them according to our level of interest. This ranking includes the stud fee and my guess about the popularity of the sire.

1. Cloud Computing – This will most likely be my favorite value sire of this group. He did not run at two years old. I believe the Maclean’s Music story, so this just adds a solid AP Indy female family to the mix. The fee has already been cut from $7,500 to $5,000. My rating A.
2. Destin – A winner at 14 furlongs, how can I not love him? Willing to give him a chance. Fee $5,000. My rating A-
3. Free Drop Billy – Maybe a poor man’s Union Rags. Interesting pedigree, worth a speculation. Fee $5,000. My rating A-.
4. Bolt d’Oro – An interesting combination of speed and pedigree. I love the female side pedigree, but his precocity will make him expensive. Fee already cut from $25,000 to $15,000. Willing to consider. My rating B+
5. Funtastic – A son of More Than Ready that won at 11 furlongs? Will be interesting to watch, need to learn more. Fee is $5,000. Maybe the best value oriented turf sire? My rating B+
6. Always Dreaming – This might be a sire that the “cool kids” hate. Always Dreaming only ran once as a two year old. He is also a son of Bodemeister who failed as a commercial sire in the US. There is not much to like on the female side of the pedigree. the stud fee has already declined from $25,000 to $17,500. My rating B.
7. Oscar Performance – He will be popular because of his success as a two year old. The female family is interesting, but not spectacular. The fee has already been cut from $20,000 to $15,000. My rating B
8. Good Samaritan – Turf and dirt ability, and a good female family. willing to consider. My rating B
9. Ransom the Moon – A very confusing new sire. He bring speed without precocity. He was a durable sprinter. His pedigree on the female side suggests stamina. He looks more like a router than a sprinter. Stud fee is $7,500. My rating B
10. Mendelssohn – The attraction here is the ability on turf and dirt. He was a good two year old, so there will not be much value. The female side pedigree is not that exciting. Stud fee $35,000. My rating B-
11. Tapwrit – Another confusing new sire. He won the Belmont, but the female side suggests precocity. I like other sons of Tapit a little better, so I will only be watching. Fee already cut from $12,500 to $10,000. My rating B-
12. McCraken – Maybe an ok son of Ghostzapper. Willing to consider at a price. Fee is $6,000. My rating B-
13. Mor Spirit – More of a miler, but willing to consider. Dixieland Band family. Fee is $5,000. My rating C+
14. Sharp Azteca – More of a miler, but willing to consider. Fee is $6,500. My rating C+
15. Good Magic – A precocious son of Curlin that will just be too popular. My rating C
16. Girvin – Was a fan of the basketball player, but not the horse. Fee is $7,500. My rating C
17. Hoppertunity – Maybe an ok Maryland bred choice. pass Fee is $5,000 My rating C
18. City of Light – A miler who stretched out later in his career. Still not the biggest Quality Road fan. Too popular for my taste right now. Fee is $40,000. My rating C
19. West Coast – Not really a Flatter fan, so hard to get excited. Was a late developer, but female pedigree not that exciting. Fee already cut from $35,000 to $20,000. My rating C
20. Collected – Never was a City Zip fan, not likely to be a Collected fan. Fee $17,500, My rating C.
21. Mo Town – Not an Uncle Mo fan, not likely to be to be a Mo Town fan. Fee is $7,500. My rating C
22. Accelerate – Never was a Looking at Lucky fan, so it just difficult to get excited. Maybe I should love the late developing nature, but my initial impression is “boring”. This could change. Stud fee $17,500 from $20,000. My ranking C.
23. Justify – Not willing to pay the price. Not really a Scat Daddy fan. Fee already cut to $125,000 from $150,000. My rating D
24. Army Mule – Just a sprinter. Pass. Fee $7,500 My rating F.

I am sure I am the only one to rate Destin ahead of Justify. This is not the most interesting group. I like Midnight Storm and Gormley much better than this group. Still missing a good long distance turf sire.

Just when you think the sale season ends, it just keeps going. The work of a bloodstock agent is never done. It really is a yearlong business.

The next sale is called the Breeding Stock Sale. It is confusing because it offers a combination of weanlings, broodmares in foal, and mares that could continue racing. I am just going to watch and learn. I am not sure how this sale should be evaluated. My glance at the first night results show mainly farms and pinhookers, with not a lot of racing outfits making purchases. It will be interesting to see if any of the partnerships participate

My first thought is that evaluating the physical appearance of a weanling might be even more difficult than looking at a yearling. This might be a business better left to the experts.

The idea of buying a mare already in foal is very interesting. It does increase the risk because their could be a problem with the pregnancy, or the foal could come out with crooked legs. However, buying mares in foal does eliminate the the need to evaluate the physical appearance of a horse. In some ways this might be the ideal way to buy a horse.

I really need to learn more about this sale.

Now that all the yearling sales are done, I really need to focus on one group of horses. I considered many different strategies and approaches. This list is summary of my ten best:

1. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. I think the sire in undervalued, and the dam is exactly what I am looking for. The nick is A+. This horse moved to the top of my list after talking to the Centennial folks about Honor Code. Buyer = S. Schwartz
2. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000 – B nick, – This is my best turf horse. I could not find a Point of Entry I liked, so Summer Front was my second choice. Bernardini is a top quality broodmare sire and the second dam was an amazing stamina producer. Buyer = WSS Racing
3. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick, – My favorite freshman sire is Midnight Storm. He was durable, and was a source of stamina on dirt and turf. The dam and 2nd dam were solid producers, and the 2nd dam was by Hansel. The late birthday keeps the pinhookers away. buyer = John Davison
4. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000 – A++ nick, – The more I thought about, the more I like the idea of LDK. He is the ultimate old, boring sire. The mare was a solid runner, and produced two million dollar winners, including freshman sire American Freedom. buyer = Black Stone Farm
5. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – c – 4/11. $100,000 – I though Classic Empire would be too expensive, but this one is too good to pass up. The mare by the great Kingmambo was 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, and the 2nd dam is by the stamina sire Strawberry Road. The nick is a D, but I just have to try this stamina combination. Buyer = John Oxley, named Classic King
6. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado – f – 4/5, $24,000 – American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy. I love the stamina pedigree of the dam. The 2nd dam was runner up in the Personal Ensign. The nick is an A. buyer = Cool Hill Farm
7. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000 – Cairo Prince produced some good horses from below average mares. Now he is getting better mares, like this one that was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. The 2nd dam won 4 grade 1’s, and $965,000. The nick is a A. buyer = Al Fried
8. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000 – B+ nick – Gormley is my favorite new speed sire. The dam produced 6 solid runners from 7 foals, and is by top broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. buyer = 5 O’Clock Somewhere
9. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – $60,000, A nick. The mix of an AP Indy sire with a Storm Cat mare is classic breeding. The mare produced a $100,000 winner, and the 2nd dam in multiple G1 winner Lazy Slusan. buyer = Jerry Romans
10. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – c – 2/4, $120,000 – A nick, This is the best idea from any partnership. I was very close to buying 5% from West Point. Connect is an interesting freshman sire (a son of Curlin) and Vindication adds Seattle Slew blood. This is the same cross as Exaggerator. buyer = West Point

Summary:

6 colts, 4 fillies / 6 plodders, 4 speed oriented sires / 5 from freshman sires / maybe 4 that have a chance to be turf horses / Roughly a $60,000 average

I could not be more excited about this group. It is a perfect example of my selection strategy. I am not sure they will be good 2 year olds, but they should improve with age.

Second 10:

1. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000 – Unified is more of a miler (a son of Candy Ride), but we add some stamina on the dam side. This is a Cox/Crow type of horse.
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000 – This is my attempt to recreate Union Rags. Their is bunch of stamina pedigree in the 2nd dam
3. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker – c – $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick – There is lots of stamina pedigree (Nureyev and Alleged) in the dam. Donegal gave him a nice write up. Great “heart score”
4. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- $29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag. B+ nick
5. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – f – 4/12 – $100,000 – The second dam by Pleasant Colony is the producer of Tonalist. Frosted was “on sale”.
6. Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – c – 4/27 – $27,000 – Bought by Antonio Sano who also bought another Dialed In named Guenavara.
7. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance by Danehill – c- 4/18 – $35 Ironhorse – A very solid Danehill mare
8. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – c – 1/26 – $80,000 – This is another Union Rags attempt, the dam was a solid distance horse, and the 2nd dam produced $1,000,000 router Macho Again.
9. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – f – 2/27- $75,000 – the 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch is a sister to Spain.
10. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Academy – c – 5/7 – $65,000 – The dam was multiple graded stakes placed, and produced a graded winner by Dynaformer. Lots of fancy Euro-pedigree in the 2nd dam.

This group is a little more speed oriented, but they all have interesting pedigrees on the dam side.

I started writing this blog in early June, so the end of the Breeder’s Cup is roughly 6 months. Let’s review what I have accomplished:

1. It has been fun to learn about the sales process. It has been educational to write about what I have learned. I think there is plenty I would have forgotten if I had not written about it.
2. I was lucky enough to invest in a Dare to Dream partnership that purchased Quick Tempo. QT was competitive in a stakes race on BC day. One other horse I invested in has been average, and another two horses have been suffering through small injuries.
3. I have learned a great deal about how the different partnerships operate, and how to evaluate their offerings. It is much to early to draw any conclusions. It will be interesting to meeting these folks in person.
4. The speed vs. stamina debate is eternal. Recent results have come down on the side of speed, but that will most likely be reflected in the price of speed at the sales. This is the puzzle you have to solve if you want to buy horses.
5. It has been very educational to understand the “unaccomplished mare” approach to buying horses. At first it sounds crazy, but their is some logic behind it.
6. It has been fun to watch the progress of the horses I “selected” from the training sales. It was fun to watch Get Her Number win the grade 1 American Pharoah, but it was even more fun to watch a winless owner buy Brooklyn Strong for $5,000 at Ocala and have him win a stakes race at Belmont.
7. It was interesting to “select” my own group of horses from the yearling sales. I can feel to excitement of “owning” a group of horses with unlimited potential.
8. I have learned much more about the current group of sires. I already have my favorites, but I know I need to keep learning.
9. Learning about the sales process has improved my handicapping. I have a much better feel for 2 year old races, but I have also learned more about various trainers and owners.
10. Most importantly, I have learned what I need to learn more about. This is a complex business that I am only beginning to understand.

Quick Tempo ran a solid 2nd in the Nyquist Stakes on the undercard of the Friday Breeder’s Cup day that featured 2 year olds.

He dueled a Wesley Ward horse through fast fractions, and lost to a Chad Brown horse named Highly Motivated. HM set the track record for 6 1/2 furlongs, not the record for 2 year olds, but the track record for all horses. It did appear that the track was “souped up”, as lots of other times were fast. I heard that HM was given a Beyer of 96-98 for his effort which should give QT about a 88-90 Beyer. QT showed some real tenacity is holding off the 3rd place horse in the stretch. I would be easy to say “he got a lot out of that race”.

I was not a fan of coming back on 16 days rest, and this race would still not have been my choice. However, the results show it was a reasonable choice, and the early update is that QT came out of the race in good shape. He will be pointed to a race in mid-December at the Fairgrounds.

It will be fun to watch QT develop. His running style and build suggest he might be just a sprinter. His pedigree suggests that he might get two turns.

The Dare to Dream guys deserve a lot of credit. I do not think any other partnership horse ran an 88 Beyer on BC juvenile day.

I wish I could take credit for picking this horse, but remember I bought 2% “in the blind”. I liked the horse DTD bought in the March Ocala sale (whose has not run yet), so I invested before they chose QT in the June Ocala sale.

The Breeder Cup is finished and it on the the Kentucky Derby preps.

What are they?

1. the Remsen , Jerome, and Withers at Aqueduct
2. the Lecomte is the first at the Fairgrounds
3. the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in late November
4. the Smarty Jones and the Southwest at Oaklawn
5. the Holy Bull is the first at Gulfstream
6. the Sam Davis is the first at Tampa
7. the Los Alamitos Futurity, Sham, and Bob Lewis in California
8. even Remington Park has the Springboard Mile this December

Those are the 10 point preps, after that come the 50 point preps:

Risen Star, Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham, Fountain of Youth, San Felipe

those are followed by the 100 point preps:

Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, UAE Derby, and the Wood Memorial

I guess that I understand the attraction of 2 year old racing much better after watching it so closely for the last 6 months. Juvenile racing adds plenty of excitement to the game after the Triple Crown season ends.

Even though I now understand juvenile racing better, I am still pretty sure I do not really like it. In my ideal world every horse would start at 3, and this push to prepare horses early would be eliminated. But luckily for most I will not be appointed world leader any time soon.

Juvenile Colts – The crazy fast pace of this race makes it difficult to draw conclusions. Are we 100% sure that Jackie’s Warrior cannot get two turns? Is Essential Quality a good horse, or did just pick up the pieces in a race that collapsed? Is Rombauer the best closer? What were the connections of Classier and Likeable trying to do?

How many of the 14 runners will make it to the Derby? My under/over is 2.5

The race created more questions than answers.

7 of the 14 horses got there for less than $150,000, either by cheap purchases or inexpensive sires. That does hold out hope for the little guy.

Juvenile Fillies – I guess I was surprised that only 7 entered. Where are all the other fillies? Did COVID really effect racing that much? Without the chance to be a sire, are fillies prepped that differently?

The winner, Vequist, was a $120,000 RNA as hip #1036 at Keeneland. Someone called Swilcan Stable raced him at Parx, and sold part to Gary Barber. This shadowy private sale market is a great unknown.

Why should I ever buy a horse from Swilcan again, if they will not sell me the good ones? Or maybe could have bought the winner for $130,000. I need to understand this better.

Only 1 of the 7 was a bargain horse. Simply Ravishing, by $5,000 Laoban, got a bad trip and could still be a good horse. What should we make of the pricy Princess Noor? Andy Beyer certainly had the last laugh. Maybe the well bred Girl Daddy will be the best long term.

Juvenile Turf races – What a mess. These 3 races were about 33% fancy euros with no early speed, 33% expensive horses, and the rest were bargain horses. Many of the fancy horses were from the Wesley Ward 2 year old “factory”.

Other than Golden Pal and Battleground my under/over for these horses to be back in the BC next year is 1.5

Two year old turf racing looks to me like a random number generator.

Eclipse had 2 runners, and West Point, Donegal, and Ironhorse each had one runner in the turf races. None did better than 5th.

I would say the day was 80% fancy horses (let’s say $200,000 buys, or $100,000+ sires), and about 20% bargain stories. There was just enough to hold out hope for the little guy

Let’s make some observations on the races in reverse order:

Classic – Speed kills, or certainly wins races. I guess I should be happy that I will get to “play against” the children of Into Mischief’s and Authentic for the next 10+ years. Authentic is exactly the type of horse I routinely bet against every single day, yet on this day he got 1 1/4 miles again. I look forward to avoiding his overpriced offspring, and his future short priced 2 year olds.

Sorry to sound so bitter, but it is exactly what I plan to do.

I does not help that myracehorce.com continues to send me e-mails that imply their new horses for sale are approved by the Securities Exchange Commission. It has once again moved from being funny to being annoying.

The good news is that Maximum Security faded, and now will become another sire to bet against. To hear the TVG announcer say his old trainer was ‘”put in the penalty box”, was enough to double my blood pressure in 10 seconds. The faster every old Jason Servis horse leaves the game the better.

The Classic was 9 fancy $200,000+ horses, and a mid-priced Tiz the Law. I guess you have to give Starlight credit for buying Authentic at the Keeneland yearling sale as hip #2616 for $350,000. Let’s give Tacitus and Global Campaign a little love for outrunning their odds, and maybe their offspring will be better bargains.

BC Turf – Next year i will have to learn more about European racing and breeding.

A special cheer for perhaps the last race of the great Arklow. The Donegal guys got this son of Arch as a yearling for $160,000 at Keeneland. He proceeded to make over $2,500,000. He ran 4th in the Lecomte Stake as a maiden, and then won a grade 2 four months later Churchill. This was a model purchase that should be emulated by other partnerships. I wonder if Arklow will be a sire?

Special credit to Little Red Feather for claiming Red King for $35,000 and getting him to this race after winning a Grade 2. This was a model claim, and one that deserves further study

Distaff – This race was 7 pretty fancy horses, a midpriced Monomoy Girl, a McPeek bargain, and a daughter of Gemologist. Monomoy Girl was a $100,000 daughter of Tapizar at the Keeneland September sale. She was hip #1611. Liz Crow picked her out despite her sprint oriented female family.

Eclipse gets credit for having 2 in here, including 2nd place finisher Valience. Both Eclipse horses were very expensive, and might not get to breakeven for their careers.

Harvest Moon ran decent for a horse that did not start until June of her 3 year old season. She might be the favorite for next year. Swiss Skydiver ran poorly, but is still a great story for a $35,000 purchase.

Turf Mile – This race was a combination of bargain horses and regally bred Euros. Uni was only a $45,000 buy, and Factor This sold for less than $20,000, and Favorite Kameko sold for only $90,000.

The partnerships were not a player in this race.

Sprint – This was a strange collection of primarily $100,000 to $300,000 horses. The winner Whitmore reminds us that even horses bred to go long can end up as sprinters. He is a grandson of Pleasant Colony, out of a Scat Daddy mare. Whitmore has better distance breeding than the winner of the Classic.

The eventual favorite was a $40,000 claim.

Filly Turf – This was a collection of fancy horses, with the exception being claimer Starship Jubilee (she was a $6,500 buy at Ocala by our Star Trek fan Larry Leavy),

Dirt Mile – This was a bargain basement bonznza. Winner Knicks Go was a $40,000 weanling and a $97,000 yearling buy out of bargain sire Paynter. Second place finisher Jesus Team is a $30,000 son of Tapiture that was hip #2216 at Keeneland. Rushie was a $70,000 Ocala buy, and Mr Freeze was a $75,000 Keeneland purchase.

Turf Sprint – This was mainly expensive horses, with a few bargains.

Team Valor had a 6 year old expensive horse.

Filly Sprint – This race was a mix. Winner Gamine was a $1,000,000 purchase, but Serengeti Empress was a $70,000 buy.

Eclipse had Speech, the very nice $190,000 daughter of of the bargain sire Mr. Speaker.

I will look a the juveniles is a separate post.

I am not sure that I can single Battleground, so let’s take a second try at the pick 5

Trying to have a $200 budget:

Race 6 – maybe cannot go so deep against Golden Pal, let’s try just the O’Brien and the two Asmussens, add Saez for another speed

14, 3, 4, 5, 8

Race 7 – still Battleground, but let’s add another Euro and the best American, and even add the Donegal horse for fun

9, 5, 6, 3

Race 8

Will take two shots against Princess Noor

2, 5, 7

Race 9 – Still love Campanelle, but will add two closers, and a Tiznow stretching out

10, 3, 8, 11

Race 10 – The big plan is to single Reinvestment Risk on my main ticket, and then play a smaller ticket to my longshot idea Calibrate. I will trust that Seth Klarmen has been pointing for this race all along. He is a great long-term investor, let’s believe he did not want to try out sprinting Jackie’s Warrior.

Calibrate is still my favorite long shot with the Dynaformer in the pedigree, and I still want just a small part of Todd’s Frosted

3 4 5 8 14 / 3 5 6 9 / 2 5 7 / 3 8 10 11 / 3 = $120. – main ticket

3 4 5 14/ 5 6 9 / 2 5 7 / 3 8 10 / 14 = $54 – a smaller ticket to Calibrate

14/ 3 5 6 9/ 2 5 7 / 3 8 10 11 / 4 = $24 – and even a smaller ticket to Likeable

I many ways the BC Juvenile seems like a final exam, but it is really more like the 6 week exam in a college course, the Triple Crown is the midterm, and next years Classic is the final.

What can we learn from each horse?

1. Jackie’s Warrior is a model horse. Owner Kirk Robison let Asmussen pick him out of the Keeneland September yearling sale for a modest 4.5x the stud fee. With all the other million dollar horses, a fairly small time pizza shop operator got a great horse for $95,000. Mr. Robison is a great guy, and everyone should check out his interview with TDN. His story should encourage everyone interested in the game. The mare was the ultimate hard knocker at Penn National winning 19 of 54 races. The broodmare sire’s claim to fame was a 3rd in the Oklahoma Derby. The nick was an A because this is roughly the breeding of Cloud Computing. With all the fancy guys buying horses from very unaccomplished mares, it is good to see the counter example. This is a horse everyone should study. By this time next year he could just be another solid sprinter, or he could be one of the most important horses in the last 10 years. His size and precocity makes him an ideal sire.
2. Essential Quality is just another piece of the Godolphin assembly line. Mom was a well bred horse that only became a sprinter. She won just 2 of 13 races, but was second 8 times in minor ungraded stakes races. The cross of Tapit with a Storm Cat mare is about as uncreative as possible, but it does seem to work. Just a maiden race is September after 12 relatively slow works (only one 47.2, with 11 much slower), and then straight to a Grade 1 where he got the lead in 48.4 and cruised home. Tapit certainly qualifies him as a classic contender next year, but he could just be a maiden winner that found a weak field trying two turns for the first time. In many ways this horse is a model for becoming the second choice in a two million dollar stake race off just two races. Just think about exactly what this horse is. His maiden win was just a 69 Beyer at 6 furlongs, that is nice, but not great by any measure. His 88 Beyer in the Futurity is again nice, but not spectacular, and earned off a slow pace might mean very little. However, if the runs a 95 Beyer here, and a 100 Beyer in the Florida Derby next Spring, he might be the favorite in the Derby next year. If you can afford the $200,000 hit for Tapit, anything is possible.
3. Reinvestment Risk is a perfect model for paying up at a training sale. Seth Klarman is a brilliant investor that bought our investment research for over 15 years. Every time he buys a new stock I take notice. He is a famous value investor. He was not a value investor when he paid 28x the stud fee for this son of the modestly obscure Upstart. He worked a quick 20.4 at Ocala is March https://www.obssales.com/marresults/2020/ but 20 people paid more. The mare never ran faster than a 75 Beyer is 15 career tries, and ended up as a $15,000 claimer at Parx. The dam had produced just one small time winner, but the work at Ocala was good enough. Now Seth has the third choice is a 2 million dollar race, off a fast work . This horse is also a great example of paying attention to obscure first year sires and horses that work 2f at the sales. Maybe two turns is what this horse wants.
4. Sitting On Go just might win this race if everybody else goes too fast. The Albaugh family bought this horse as a weanling for $65,000, or almost 10x the modest stud fee of Brody’s Cause. Again the strategy was to pay up for a first year sire. The mare was by the precocious More Than Ready, but her only claim to fame was winning a sprint stake at Turf Paradise. This horse is here off just a slow win at Ellis Park, and picking up the pieces when 10 inexperienced 2 year olds went 45.2 in a flat mile at Churchill.
5. Likeable just might have the most long term promise of any horse in the field. He is a $350,000 son of Frosted (a Keeneland yearling buy), out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare. Once again the mare was just a sprinter who won her first race and then fizzled quickly. Frosted has had a tough year after so many people paid huge prices for his yearlings, but one good race could change all that. Mike Repole is known for Vitaminwater, Uncle Mo, and Vino Rosso, not a bad threesome.
6. Classier is a Bob Baffert maiden winner that might try to steal this on the front end. Starlight Partners, and a host of others, paid $775,000 (Keeneland September) for this son of Empire Maker. The mare was very slow and took 12 painful races to break her maiden at Gulfstream. This is a classic example of unproven mare theory that Starlight and others use. With just $33,000 in purse earnings, it shows that you don’t need much to enter this race. The top 6 choices in the BC Juvenile all had mares that never won a two turn race. Just stop and think about that. What should be learn?
7. King Fury is a $950,000 (Fasig-Tipton August) son of Curlin. The mare was the million dollar winner Taris, who was best at 7 furlongs. Three Chimney’s might have a future sire here if he an win a big race. There is a lot of potential here.
8. Next is a Silverton Hill homebred. The mare was a hard knocking Charlestown/Calder sprinter.
9. Rombauer is an interesting horse. I love the distance ability of Twirling Candy. The mare was an unraced daughter of distance orieinted Cowboy Cal. This could be a an interesting horse next year. The Fradkin family is just 6 for 53 lifetime, so you have to be cheering for the little guy.
10. Camp Hope is another expensive ($200,000 at Fasig-Tipton July) son of a $10,000 sire Summer Front. The mare was by Pulpit and retired winless in 5 tries. I am a Summer Front fan, so I will be watching

That is the top ten, combined their mares have one two turn win among them

Let’s take a shot at the pick 5 for BC 2 yr olds.

Who is the best favorite?

race #6. I cannot take a single in a 5 1/2 furlong turf race. No matter how good the horse is, I almost never single turf sprints. Here the favorite draws the #14 post off a big fig in a minor stake at Saratoga. One bad step and lots of long shots have a chance.

race #7. Battleground is my best favorite. The mare here was great at 1 1/2 miles. If any horse should ever stretch out, it is this one. It is not really close, even with a bad trip he shoud have enough. Aidan O”Brien is something like 1 for 50 in has last few years at the BC, but he certainly knows how to win races. The horse is also well rested. This will be my single. Maybe this is too much focus on breeding, and not enough focus on results.

race #8. Sure Princess Noor can win, but I will have to take shots against her. This is Andy Beyer’s and my worst favorite.

race #9. My second best favorite is Campanelle. Again, the horse is bred for two turns, but I will also add Aunt Pearl just in case. Hopefully, they will not duel each other into submission.

race #10. Maybe I should just accept that Jackie’s Warrior will get two turns. I am a fan of Maclean’s Music, and I think they should should stretch out. But the owner of JW usually buys sprinters, I just do not trust this horse. I have to at least have the son of Tapit (Essential Quality), but I also like the closers if JW and EQ go out too fast.

My main ticket is singling Battleground:

3,4,5,9,13,14 / 9 / 2,4,5,7 / 5,10 / 4,5,7,14 / = $96

The back up is singling Golden Pal and adding Battleground’s top 2 competitors

14/ 4,5,9 / 2,4,5,7 / 5,10 / 4,5,7,14 = $48

The second backup is to single Essential Quality:

3,5,13,14 / 4,5,9 / 2,5,7 / 2,5,10 / 5 = $54

My top favorite is Battleground

My favorite to fade is Princess Noor

My best longshot is Calibrate in the Juvenile, maybe the closers get home, he is a grandson of Dynaformer

The exciting news is that Quick Tempo will be a favorite in a $125,000 stake race on the undercard of Friday’s Breeders Cup races.

The bad news is he is coming back on only 18 days rest. I would have preferred that the the Dare to Dream guys wait for a later race, but I can understand their choice. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would rate their mistake no more than a 3. Personally I would space races at least 30 days after any type of effort or “new top”. That is my bias, and I am sure not that many people agree. I draw my opinions from the mildly crazy, but deeply insightful, ranting of Len Ragozin.

QT draws some tough competition from Chad and Asmussen, but he has the best Beyer by almost 10 points. I am sure most reasonable folks would be thrilled with the choice of races.

The lack of control is a major disadvantage of partnership investing. For “control freaks” like myself this can be a major problem. There will be plenty of chances to try two turns next year, but that is what I would be prepping for.

The “control” issue is a major reason not to invest in partnerships.

Would you believe that at the end of October that Quick Tempo is the 8th fastest 2-yr old in North America?

Even more difficult to believe is that two other horses I “selected” from the the Ocala sale are also on this list. Whatmakessammyrun is the We Miss Artie colt that was sold for just $30,000 at the Ocala sale, and Get Her Number is a $45,000 son of Dialed In.

I am beginning to understand the attraction of 2 year old racing. In just a few races you can move right to the top of the list. It would be nice to know what percentage of horses have already started. I would estimate it was 25%, but that is a wild guess.

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QT earned an 87 Beyer for that effort at PARX. The chart below is the top 2 year-old Beyers this year will put that into perspective:

2-year-olds: male or female 
through 10/21/2020 

HORSE	TRK	DATE	DIST	BEYER FIGURE
Jackie’s Warrior	BEL	10 Oct	1M	100
Dayoutoftheoffice	BEL	10 Oct	1M	95
Jackie’s Warrior	SAR	07 Sep	7F	95
Golden Pal	SAR	21 Aug	5 1/2F	92
Reinvestment Risk	BEL	10 Oct	1M	91
Vequist	BEL	10 Oct	1M	91
Reinvestment Risk	SAR	01 Aug	6F	90
Reinvestment Risk	SAR	07 Sep	7F	90
Simply Ravishing	KEE	02 Oct	1 1/16M	89
Essential Quality	KEE	03 Oct	1 1/16M	88
Jackie’s Warrior	SAR	07 Aug	6F	88
Quick Tempo	PRX	20 Oct	6F	87
Souper Sensational	WO	17 Oct	7F	87
Whatmakessammyrun	BEL	08 Oct	7F	87
Dr. Schivel	DMR	08 Aug	6F	86
Tobys Heart	CD	04 Jun	5 1/2F	86
Outadore	KD	12 Sep	6 1/2F	85
Prisoner	BEL	03 Jun	5F	85
Therideofalifetime	KEE	11 Jul	6F	85
Get Her Number	SA	26 Sep	1 1/16M	84
Mutasaabeq	SAR	08 Aug	5 1/2F	84
Sittin On Go	CD	05 Sep	1M	84
Aunt Pearl (IRE)	KEE	07 Oct	1 1/16M	83
California Lily	WO	08 Oct	5 1/2F	83
Dayoutoftheoffice	SAR	16 Jul	6F	83
Emro	KD	15 Sep	6 1/2F	83

Somehow they found another 1500+ yearlings to put on sale at Fasig-Tipton in Lexington.

The role of these “second tier” sales is still one of the great mysteries of the sales process. As a determined value buyer I will keep track of these sales, but I feel like I am shopping at the Dollar Store.

The mean and average of $15,000 and $30,000 are about the same as the last days of the Keeneland sale. Eclipse found a $550,000 horse, Pocket Aces, and Pewter were the only other partnership buyers.

I will keep track of one from each of my favorite sires:

1. #230 Honor Code – Lady is a Lioness – $10,000, great 2nd dam
2. #99 Tonalist – Holiday Girl – $42,000, Liz Crow buys a plodder
3. #1076 Maclean’s Music – Zindi – $47,000, Donato buys a MM
4. #56 Summer Front – Guess the Dance – $4,000, Hippo Racing ???
5. #374 Midnight Storm – Miss Montreal – $39,000, Antowne Randle El ???
6. #855 Unified – Swampoodle – $37,000, Pocket Aces
7. #432 American Freedom – Never Quicker -$37,000, Little Red Feather
8. #1435 Gormley – Doubleshot of Gold – $17,000, McPeek
9. #222 Dialed In – Kristy Beethoven – $6,000
10. #148 Cairo Prince – In Stitches – $80,000, Crow, great 2nd dam

This is kind of a random collection of horses. My favorite is the Midnight Storm bought by former Indiana Hoosier QB Antowne Randle El.

As we reach the end of October, has the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby already run a race?

My first guess is that the answer is no, but let’s look a little deeper.

Let’s first look at the 30 most expensive Keeneland colt yearlings last year:

1. Aussie Pride – Curlin – not working
2. Brother in Arms – War Front – 6 works
3. Lidstrom – Tapit – 8 works
4. Alexander Valley – M d’ O – 9 works
5. Beatbox – P of N – 7th at Keeneland
6. Vanishing Point – Tapit – not working
7. Golden Whim – M d’O – not working
8. American Admiral – Pharoah – 7 works
9. Pigott – Curlin – not working
10. Federal Bureau – M d’O – not working
11. North Pole – P of N – 2nd at SA
12. Ghazaaly – Curlin – not working
13. Contango – Candy Ride – not working
14. Spielberg – Union Rags – 2nd at DM
15. Khartoum – P of N – not working
16. Overtook – Curlin – 4th at Belmont
17. Eleven Central – Into M – not working
18. Find New Roads – Q Road – 3 works
19. Scream – Tw Candy – not working
20. xxx not named – Uncle Mo
21. Hopkins -Q Road – 2 works
22. Prime Factor – Q Road – 4 works
23. Elite Power – Curlin – not working
24. Engrave – Flatter – 2nd at Belmont
25. Whiskey Double – IM – winner at Churchill
26. Mischief Moon – IM – not working
27. Ebnzaidoon – Speight – not working
28. Scarlet Fusion – Curlin – 5th at Churchill
29. Tenor – Curlin – 6th at DM
30. Absolute Courage – IM – 4 works. – $800,000

14 of the top are not yet working!!!!

Only 1 of the top 30 has won a race!!!

What does that mean? Has COVID slower down the process? Is everyone being conservative? Maybe these expensive are treated more gently?

• – – – – – – – – –

So at random I started with $100,000

1. xxx not named
2. Core – first sam – 3 works
3. xxx not named
4. Billy Yank – Union – 7th at Woodbine
5. xxx not named
6. Rebel Step – not working
7. Tall Timber – mine – 2 works
8. xxx not named
9. One Time Gem – 2nd at Lou Downs
10. xxx not named
11. Supply Chain – Speightster – not working
12. xxx not named
13. Strike a Deal – Tiznow – 2 works
14. Candy Mover – CR – 2 wins in 9 starts at Belterra, wow
15. Warrior nation – Union – 5 works
16. Grandconcourse Guy – Dis Hum – 1 work
17. Macchiato d’oro – Hard Spun – no works
18. xxx not named
19. Isle of Sark – kj – no works
20. Canadian man – MM – not working

In my random sample 50% were not yet working!!!

Only 1 had won, and that was at Belterra!!!

I am not sure what this means, but I do not want to go out and buy a yearling right now

• – – – – – – – – – – – –

So let’s go to the Ocala sale and look at the top 20 colts

1. Thales – Q road – no works
2. Bobby Bo -Speightster -no works
3. Dolder Grand – CR – 3rd at Woodbine
4. Vittorio – Ghost – winner at DM with a 97 equibase
5. xxx – Cal Chrome – not racing
6. Rising Empire – 4th at Keeneland
7. xxx – Unnamed
8. Arzak – Not This – 5th at Delaware
9. Superman Shaq – winner at DM, 80
10. KC Rocket – Kanth -2 works
11. Happy Romance – 3 works
12. Origanal – 8th at Belmont
13. Fighting Force – 2nd at Belmont, 87
14. Mouheeb – no works
15. Tivoli Twirl- 4 works
16. Blue Boon – 4 works
17. Spirit Maker – 8 works
18. xxx unnamed
19. Golden Flash – 4 works
20. xxx – unnamed, $300,000

This seems impossible, but only 2 of the top 20 colts from the Ocala sale have won a race!

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Maybe COVID has delayed development, or maybe this was just a bad group

Quick Tempo survived the 700 mile ship to Parx from Lexington, and won by 6 lengths in nw2 lifetime allowance for 2 yr olds. He earned an 11 fig from Ragozin, which makes him the 18th fastest 2yr old to run so far this year. Since he was given no more than a tap on the shoulder, he might be faster than that.

I must admit that I was against the long ship, and I would not race any living animal at Parx. So the Dare to Dream guys get credit for taking the chance.

So what do you do now? Is QT a quick sprinter that should try to earn purse money while he can, or might he a two turn horse next year?

QT is an interesting case study.

1. Tapizar is a son of Tapit and a great grandson son of AP Indy, so stamina is indicated
2. QT’s mom was by Dixie Union, who can produce “any kind of horse”
3. Monomoy Girl is Tapizar out of a Henny Hughes mare, and she is a router
4. QT’s third dam is Megan’s Bluff, was a classically bred turf router (Pine Bluff out of a Cozzene mare)

I think there is every indication that QT could be a good two turn horse next year. I would put some longer works into him and get him started at the Faigrounds stakes races.

One the other hand:

1. QT’s mom was a pure 6f sprinter, for Jason Servis
2. The 2nd dam was unraced
3. QT ran a quick 9.4 work at Ocala, but only sold for $75,000
4. QT’s look is more “Dixieland Band – quick sprinter” than a longer bodied router.
5. QT’s flying from the gate running style might make it tough to rate him going two turns

It is time to make another claim. I will take Scott Pond out of today’s fifth race at Keeneland. I am sure G Watts Humphrey will not even miss him.

Lemon Drop Kid – Honey Lake by Dynaformer for $30,000

The mare ran 101 Equibase fig going 1 1/2 miles at Churchill, winning 5 of 25 races and $266,000. She is by my favorite Dynaformer

It looks like he should be able to run at least 2 miles.

This is kind of a crazy claim, but lets see how he works out over the next few years.

This is a review of the status of horses selected at the July Ocala 2, 2020 two year old in training sale.

With more than half the horse not working or unnamed, this sale really seems to have a lot of “problem horses”. This will be a good test of patience.

1. #560 Summer Front – Cozy Gain – 21.2, $8,000, Larkin Brothers, Unnamed in June
2. #1058 Exaggerator – Cozze Up Lady, 11,0 $12,000, Ironhorse Racing Stable, Deceiver, 7th at Churchill, no races since October, working at Churchill in June
3. #515 Summer Front – Check the Spelling, 10.2 $15,000, Expoline, Rocket Sori, not working
4. #1049 Air Force Blue – Branding – 21.2, $50,000, TB Bloodstock, Granada Flavor, working at SA, bad 10th at SA in March, has won $1,000 at SA
5. #281 Orb – Trophy Wife – 10.1, $35,000, Jeremiah O’Dwyer, Higuita, working at laurel, has won $16,000, is a $35,000 claimer at Delaware
6. #572 Social Inclusion – Dandy Dulce – 33.1 $28,000 Jeremiah O’Dwyer (late PS), Celestial Cheetah, winner MSW at Delaware, already in a $35,000 claimer at Gulfstream, has won $67,000
7. #602 Twirling Candy – Diva’s Seastar, 10.1, $65,000, Michael Langford (a late PS), Sidetown, winner at Churchill for Morse, bad at Oaklawn, has won $23,000
8. #597 Frosted – Celestial Kitten, 10.2 $47,000, Merril Scherer, Della Frost, 5th at Churchill, 2nd is $30,000 maiden claimer at FG, has won $14,000, MSW at Canterbury
9. #1098 Summer Front – Mountain Buddies, 21.2, $30,000, Expoline, Super Sonic Iji, not working
10. #990 Lemon Drop Kid – Oxbow Lake, 10.3, $62,000, Earle Mack, Desert Eagle, working at Woodbine in June
11. #340 Vancouver – Woollahra – 10.2, $21,000, Greg James, Delta Gamma Cats, 2nd at TP, has won $4,000
12. #162 Tourist – Silver Market, 10.1, $12,000 Edward Pulgar, Beauty Boss, working at Gulfstream, won a $25,000 claimer at TB, has won $40,000 is a $25,000 claimer at Gulfstream
13. #594 Sky Mesa – Diamondinthestream, 10.2, $22,000, Vina del Mar Thoro., Miss Bosconovitch, 2nd in a MSW at Pimlico, has won $10,000
14. #51 Jack Milton – Purely Promising, 21.1 $45,000, Steve Young, Gabby Squared, working at Monmouth, has won $14,000, still in Chad’s barn
15. #542 Dialed In – Collusion, 21.2, $40,000, Starship Stables, Starship Saratoga, not working
16. #106 Carpe Diem – Sabi Sands, 10.2, $25,000, Jason Hall (late PS), Lila at the Beach, working at GG, two 2nds at GG is MSW, has won $25,000
17. #252 Air Force Blue – The Rahy Angel, 10.2, $25,000, Churchill Downs Racing Club, Air Force Angel, working at FG, running poorly in $50,000 MC at Churchill, has won $2,000
18. #197 Upstart – Stay Composed, 21.3, $57,000, Siegel Sez Stables, Hangout, 5th at Belmont, two bad MSW tries at AQ, has won $6,000
19. #63 Soldat – Rajpur Road, 10.1, $18,000, Joe Graffeo, Lifechangingevent, working at Palm Meadows, 3rd at GPW in a MC, won a $25,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream, has won $43,000
20. #520 Fed Biz – Chic Gloria – 10.1, $16,000, Starship Stables, Starship Chica, not working

I will be cheering for Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Early in this project I identified MacLean’s Music as a sire I was interested in. It has been fun to watch the development of this colt. Now that Jackie’s Warrior has already secured a stud career at Spendthrift, I guess he will be a horse I can watch for his entire lifetime.

It is also fun to watch the horse because his owner is a relatively small time player in the horse racing business. Kirk Robison owns a small chain of pizza restaurants in El Paso, Texas. He buys 8-10 horses a year at the sales, and has had moderate levels of success, especially in New Mexico racing. He did a great interview with the guys at TDN which can be found here:

Home

It was especially interesting to watch Mr. Robison talk honestly about the potential distance limitations of his colt. He actually suggests his ultimate goal might be the Breeder’ Cup Sprint, rather than the Kentucky Derby.

It was also educational to hear that Mr. Robison reads TDN as the first thing he does every morning.

Of course, I will also be cheering for Get Her Number. This is a horse I “selected” out of the Ocala sale. I guess I will be cheering for a dead heat.

Here is an early morning line on the race:

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Breeders_Cup_Juvenile_2020_Latest_Odds_Preview_123

I stumbled across a very important website:

http://www.pedigreegoddess.com/

The site, run by Anne Peters, has a great deal of educational material.

There are excellent articles on breeding theories, and well as information such as the height of each sire.

Some of the most important things I learned:

1. The importance of using more than just Nick ratings to judge pedigrees
2. There is a great article “The Outcrossing Advantage” which supports my idea of adding “euro-pedigree” to typical US sires
3. There are people that actually believe that the quality of foals decline as a mare ages
4. Another great article is “Is Bigger Always Better”

There is something here for everything.

It does make me wonder what other free resources are available that I have not discovered.

Let’s try to pick my favorite horse from both the training sales and the yearling sales.

If I had to pick just one it would be:

Hip #968 from the Keeneland yearling sale

Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, 2/17 – $40,000

Click to access 968.pdf

Out of the several thousand horses I looked at, why is this the best one?

1. I considered several different strategies. I think the best strategy is to pick a sire that “falls out of favor”, because buyers expect instant results. The more I learn, the more I see that “Lexington is the same as Wall Street”. You can take advantage of this short-term orientation by finding a 2nd or 3rd crop sire where prices are falling.
2. I have now watched the selections of over 30 different partnerships. By far the most impressive has been the work of Centennial Farm. I firmly believe they are the best “long-term investor” in the partnership business.
3. By combining #1 and #2 I reach the conclusion that I should be looking for an offspring of Honor Code. His average yearling fell from $$76,000 in 2019, to only $48,000 in 2020. Honor Code has produced Honor AP and Max Player, but not many of his runners have been the precocious types the buyers prefer. Honor Code is “under-valued”. His female family is perhaps the most stamina oriented of all the sons of AP Indy. Centennial Farms bought the most expensive Honor Code at the sale for $260,000. I think Honor Code is the sire I should focus on.
4. I want to combine Honor Code with a stamina oriented/late developing dam, because this is the best way to buy an inexpensive Honor Code. If I had an unlimited budget, I might choose another type of mare, but I want a horse that the pinhookers will hate. Many will question this part of the strategy, but I think it is essential.
5. The dam of hip #968 did not win until her 4 year old season, but in March of her 3 year old season, she ran a 99 Equibase fig for Patrick Gallagher at Santa Anita going 1 1/16. That would win a MSW almost anywhere expect Santa Anita. She was never in a claimer, and after her one win it was off to the breeding shed. This is the kind of “sneaky good” mare that I prefer.
6. The dam of #968, Ermine Slippers, is a full sister to $2,000,000 winner Borrego. Borrego won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Pacific Classic, and was 2nd in several other graded stakes races. Being a full sister to a champion is no guaranty of breeding success, but for this price tag it is nice to have.
7. Erimine Slippers produced 3 winners from her first 3 foals, including a $100,000 winner and a $60,000 winner. That is not spectacular, but it is solid.
8. Erimine Slippers is the daughter of the great El Prado. El Prado is the sire of Medaglia d’Oro and Kitten’s Joy. El Prado was a great 2 year old, but as a son of Sadler’s Wells he might have gone longer if he were not injured at 3.
9. The sons of AP Indy/El Prado nick is rated A+ at TrueNicks
10. The 2nd dam was by Derby winner Strike the Gold, and produced Borrego. The 3rd dam was graded stakes placed, and is from a family with plenty of black type.

I certainly would not want to pinhook this horse and try to get him to work 10.0 at the Ocala sale in April, but I would love to race him in maybe December 2021. In all honesty, I would not expect him to race until he is 3 years old. This will add to his cost.

I think Honor Code is a great value, I think the dam was sneaky good, and I think the pedigree suggests he could win the Kentucky Derby. I think $40,000 is a bargain price.

Needs a name, so let’s call him Quixote’s Pick.

One part of the puzzle that I do not completely understand is the business models of the stud farms. Obviously they buy stallions, and try to make money attracting mares to breed with these stallions. However, the farms are also buyers and sellers of horses at the sales, and often race horses under their own name. This is where everything starts to get a little cloudy, and the potential for “conflicts of interest” appears.

Then beyond the 20 major stud farms, there are another group of “farms” where various mare are kept. This second group of farms are both buyers and sellers. Mixed into these different farms, are consigners and bloodstock agents, that often seem to be working for both buyers and sellers at the same time.

Just as I was beginning this journey, I heard an interview with Graham Motion on the Steve Byk podcast. Byk and Motion were discussing the indictment of Servis and Navarro. Motion made an interesting comment, he said:

“I am surprised that law enforcement started with trainers, I would have started by looking at the sales”

Motion did not elaborate, and Byk did not push him any further. I am not sure if Motion was talking specifically about the issue of using drugs to prepare horses for the sales, or if he was making a more general comment about the integrity of the sales.

This is a very complex business. The more I learn, the more questions that I have.

So who exactly is Woodford Racing? It turns out they are a partnerships group managed by the principals at Lane’s End Farm. Lane’s End’s is owned by the Farish family. The Woodford Racing website has a roster of horses, and a brief outline of their philosophy. The website does not appear to be soliciting new partners. That raises an important point that everyone should understand.

There are probably hundreds of racing partnerships that are not looking for new members.

I am keeping track of the roughly 50 partnerships that are actively seeking new members by offering horses, or groups of horses. I cannot hope to keep track of all the partnerships that are essentially “invitation only” private clubs.

You can choose to believe this story, or ignore it, but I do have witnesses.

I do contend that learning all about the sales can give you valuable handicapping insights.

Saturday at Belmont I was waiting to play the mandatory pick-6 payout, and had decided to skip the early pick 5 which had two horses that were going to be 2-5. Five minutes before race #3 I was glancing through the entries of a 3-yr old, 7f, MSW on the turf, and saw an interesting horse. She was a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid owned by Woodford Racing. I love LDK’s as they mature later, and I knew Woodford had been buying interesting horses at the Keeneland sale (they had bought the most expensive Midnight Storm at the sale for $280,000). None of the other maidens had run within 5 points of the Beyer par for the race. It was a good race to pick a long shot.

So I leaned over and told my friend, “I think the #6 has a chance to be in there”. She was 67-1 on the board. The pace was pretty quick, and the #6 picked up the pieces, and won at final odds of 97-1. I was too lazy to stand up and make a win bet, so it just ends up a cute story that not many will believe.

Owner handicapping is an important skill. Knowing the difference between the smart guys, and the folks just playing for fun, can be a good long shot angle.

The sale is divided into a “select sale” and an “open” sale for yearlings. I am not sure of the difference, but I will focus on the select portion.

Ideas:

1. #104 – f – Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief – $20,000
2. #105 – c – Keen Ice – Faerie Queene by Pure Prize – $19,000 RNA
3. #161 – c – American Freedom – Mystic Mirage by Chester House – withdrawn
4. #189 – c – Dialed In – Shine Softly by Aldebaran – $50,000
5. #192 – c – Twirling Candy – Snow Mesa by Sky Mesa – $19,000 RNA
6. #210 – f – Super Saver – Winona by Lemon Drop Kid – $30,000
7. #218 – f – Connect – And Away We Go by Awesome Again – $10,000
8. #223 – f – Air Force Blue – Beautiful One by Medaglia d’Oro – withdrawn
9. #224 – c – Tonalist – Beautissimo by Uncle Mo – $28,000
10. #250 – c – Union Rags – Mega Dream by Medaglia d’Oro – $45,000
11. #268 – c – Honor Code – Conquest Sweetride by Candy Ride – $72,000 RNA
12. #332 – c – Midnight Storm – Givhans Ferry by Congaree – $9,000
13. #352 – f – Jack Milton – Herecomeskat by Street Sense – $5,000
14. #390 – f – Connect – Laurafina by Cozenne, 5/14, C – withdrawn
15. #394 – c – Gormley – Lemons to Lemonade, 3/19, B – $2,000
16. #408 – f – Midnight Storm by Touch Gold, 5/1, – $1,000
17. #562 – c – Big Blue Kitten – Sweet Pizazz by Congrats, 4/11 – $1,000
18. #585 – f – Gormley – Well Traveled by Perfect Soul, 5/20 – $12,000
19. #639 – c – Keen Ice – By the Shore by Include, 5/16 – $7,000
20. #672 – f – Twirling Candy – Coup by Empire Maker, 4/6, A++, cross of Gift Box – $4,000

Outcome:

In an effort to keep things organized I have reported the results of the sale in bold.

The sale seems to be Keeneland day 15 as far as quality goes. The average was $11,000 and the median was $8,000. None of the big partnerships bought a horse. Final Furlong bought a $15,000 Mr. Z., and that was the only partnership participating.

Donato Lanni bought the sale topper for $115,000, a Danzing Candy (a new son of Twirling Candy).New York claiming trainer Orlando Noda bought 6 horses for a total of $57,000. Florida trainer Dan Pita bought 7 horses.

I am tempted to just ignore this sale, but the value guy in me wants to dig deeper. For right now I will consider three horses as imaginary purchases:

1. #104 – f – Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief – $20,000
2. #332 – c – Midnight Storm – Givhans Ferry by Congaree – $9,000
3. #672 – f – Twirling Candy – Coup by Empire Maker, 4/6, A++, cross of Gift Box – $4,000

I will add these three to the bottom of my “under $20,000” list.

I really like the Connect filly. This is to me kind of a model “sneaky good” pedigree.

Click to access 104.PDF

The real world buyer was Cammarota Racing which is winless in three tries in New York. The Midnight Storm is by a mare who was 2nd in the Wilma Mankiller Memorial Stakes at Will Rodgers Downs. The Twirling Candy was bought by interesting young trainer Roudolphe Brisset.

Let’s revisit this list in 2 years and see if any of this group of forgotten horses ever win an allowance race at mid-level track.

I just talked with a very smart horse racing guy with 30 years of experience, and his strategy was to buy yearlings out of mares with almost no racing or breeding success. Maybe that is the right strategy if you are buying a $400,000 horse, but is it the right strategy if you are buying a $40,000 horse?

I started looking at what was available in the upcoming Ocala yearling sale, and really had to stop and think about hip #104:

#104 – f – Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief

1. I have talked myself into Connect being an interesting first year sire. West Point and several others bought nice Connect’s in Lexington. The son of Curlin should be an above average stamina influence.
2. The dam raced 40 times, was 1st or 2nd thirteen times for low profile Florida connections. She did run a 99 Equibase fig while routing. She was no star, but she was the classic “hard-knocking” mare
3. The dam is by BC Classic winner Cat Thief
4. The dam has produced 4 winners from five foals. None have won stakes, but they have been solid.
5. The 2nd dam is by my favorite Dynaformer. She was a marginal runner, but the producer of 7 winners.
6. The 3rd dam was a solid running daughter of Affirmed, that produced a $1 million dollar winner in Japan
7. The Curlin/Storm Cat nick is rated A at TrueNicks.
8. The filly is a NY-bred

I would call this pedigree extremely solid, perhaps a little boring, but not spectacular.

Maybe this is exactly the “lower risk” pedigree that a little guy should be looking for. Perhaps the “accomplishment free” strategy does not make sense in the low-end market.

A small pinhooking group called First Finds bought this horse for $20,000 in January at what I guess is called a short yearling sale. Will they sell it in this poor market for $30,000 to $40,000? Why was this horse not at Keeneland? Maybe they chose to keep this horse in Florida, because the dam was a Florida horse?

Blonde on Tap finished a nice 2nd at Keeneland in a 6f, $20,000 maiden claimer. The jockey switch to Mitch Murrill seemed to help relax her a little bit. After two starts where she flew to the lead and faded badly, here she rated and made a reasonable move in the stretch.

The race does show a very important negative to partnership investing. The partners had no say in the drop into a $20,000 claimer. If I had been the sole owner of Blonde on Tap, I would not have dropped her without trying a route race first. She was beaten 27 lengths in her previous start, so she would have tough to claim, but not impossible. Steve Asmussen did claim the horse that finished 3rd. An Oaklawn trainer also claimed a first time starter out of the race. Good horsemen are always watching, even lowly $20,000 maiden claimers.

I would not have been a happy camper if Blonde on Tap would have been claimed. I guess you have to give the Dare to Dream guys credit for being aggressive, or maybe they were just lucky. One of the great negatives to partnerships is the managers cannot really tell the partners what they really think of their horses, because sometimes a claiming race is the best option. You can’t tell a bunch of 2% partners the horse is great, but we going to sneak her into this $20,000 race. I had always wondered how West Point of Eclipse managed the drop into a claimer, and now I realize the most likely communication will be dead silence.

The race does show you that you can find value in $20,000 maiden claimers. There was someone who bid $45,000 for Blonde on Tap at Ocala. Yesterday was a 50% off sale day for them. Maybe the best option is to avoid the sales, and just wait for impatient owners to enter claiming races.

This is a very very tough game. Never underestimate the poker skills needed to successfully mange a group of horses.

My conversation with Mr. Little of Centennial also helped me understand an important issue.

When buying expensive colts, there is more emphasis on the “can he be a stallion” question than I realized. The real upside in colts is not racing, but breeding.

This explains why so many expensive colts are bought with dams that are unraced or seldom raced. The dams also have had few foals, and often the new colt is the first foal of an unraced dam.

Why are the buyers of expensive colts looking for completely unaccomplished dams? They want to buy as much horse as they can, without “paying up” for the racing ability of the dam or her children.

I have heard many buyers cite the positive, “I bought a colt out of a very young mare”. It is not a positive because foals of young dams are faster, it is a positive because you have to pay less.

Consider this example very carefully because it is exactly the strategy being used by Centennial, Starlight, and others:

I am shopping for a son of Gun Runner because I want to be the first “son of Gun Runner” to get to the breeding shed. Not everyone can afford to pay $70,000 for Gun Runner, but there is plenty of demand for a $20,000 “son of Gun Runner”.

It would seem that you would want your new “son of Gun Runner” to have as much pedigree as possible, but that assumption would be wrong. It is 100% acceptable that the dam of “son of Gun Runner” is unraced and never had another foal. Why?

Let’s say you buy “son of Gun Runner” for $250,000 at a yearling sale. The mare is the daughter of a highly respected stallion, but is unraced and this is her first foal. Your colt must be great looking to pay so much for a young horse from an unaccomplished mare. Let’s say with a little racing luck your new “son of Gun Runner” is able to win the Florida Derby a Grade 1 race. His career at stud is now almost a certainty. On “son of Gun Runner’s” pedigree page his mother is still unraced, but suddenly she is the producer of a Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby. None of the mare’s other foals have ever failed, because they have never raced.

This strategy is very counter-intuitive, but it is a reality.

If you go to a yearling sale and buy a son of Gun Runner out a Grade 1 winning mare that has also produced five other graded stakes winners you are going to pay $750,000 for an average looking horse The preferred alternative is to buy a great looking son of Gun Runner, that is the first foal out an unraced mare for less than $250,000.

This is exactly the strategy that Centennial and Starlight are using. My example is an over-simplification of the strategy, but it is the general outline. This strategy has significant implications when trying to value young colts.