Buying A Race Horse

Here is my new crazy idea. The Keeneland sale is less than a month away. I am planning to attend. My goal is to leave the sale with 100 horses to follow, in these categories (20 in each):

1. Over $200,000 – just for fun with no budget
2. $120,000 to $200,000 – the horses I really like, but go over the budget
3. $80,000 to $120,000 – the high end of what I would like to pay
4. $40,000 to $80,000 – the “sweet spot”
5. under $40,000 – the bargains

The goal is to earn the highest Return on Investment (ROI).

The overall strategy will be the same. The basic idea is to concentrate on horses the pinhookers have little interest in.

1. Out of favor stamina oriented sires
2. Stamina oriented dams and extended female families
3. mares that did not win stakes races, or have stakes winning offspring
4. mares with less than 7 offspring
5. Above average nick ratings and April-June foal dates when possible

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How should I go about picking my 20 expensive horse? These horses will come fron the first 4 sessions (also called the the first 2 “books”. My first idea is to go with these sires:

1. Quality Road – my favorite expensive sire
2. Quality Road
3. American Pharoah – really becoming a turf sire
4. American Pharoah
5. Street Sense – looking for the next Maxfield
6. Street Sense –
7. Medaglia d’Oro – 2nd favorite expensive sire
8. Liam’s Map
9. Union Rags
10. Kitten’s Joy
11. Mendelssohn – favorite 2nd year sire
12. City of Light – a cheaper Quality Road
13. Vino Rosso – my favorite 1st year sire
14. Catholic Boy –
15. Omaha Beach – maybe a good idea
16. Gun Runner – maybe
17. Audible – maybe
18. Bolt d’ Oro – a little overvalued
19. Mitole – maybe
20. Catalina Cruiser – maybe

Expensive sires that will not be in my top 20:

1. Into Mischief – still to sprinty
2. Tapit – not bad, but I like QR better
3. Curlin – I like QR a little better
4. War Front – too expensive
5. Justify – maybe too harsh
6. Uncle Mo – Mo Donegal surprised me
7. Candy Ride – fading
8. Constitution – a cheaper Tapit
9. Nyquist – on the fence
10. Practical Joke – too sprinty
11. Speightstown – too sprinty
12. Distorted Humor – confusing
13. Not This Time – too expensive
14. Munnings – still little stamina
15. Twirling Candy – borderline
16. More Than Ready – maybe on turf
17. Hard Spun -borderline
18. Good Magic – did not like what I saw
19. Arrogate – passes away
20. MacLean’s Music- sprinty
21. Frosted – just poor

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From sessions 1-4, book 1 and 2

Session 1 – #1 -#181 median 2021 – $310,000

Session 2 – #191 – #375. median 2021 – $375,000

Session 3 – #389 – #758 median 2021 – $210,000

Session 4 – #750 – #1097 median 2021 – $200,000

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1. #86 – c – Quality Road – Tin Type Gal by Tapit – A++, 2/13, Denali
2. #191 – f – Quality Road – Cover Song by Fastnet Rock – A+ nick, 4/22, Stone Farm
3. #111 – c – American Pharoah – Visage by Galileo – A++ nick, 2/4, Eaton
4. #142 – f – American Pharoah – A Star is Born by Galileo – A++ nick, 4/17 Lane’s End
5. #56 – c – Street Sense – Spellbound by Bernardini – A nick, Maxfield, 3/11, Claiborne
6. #657 – c – Street Sense – Gold Serenade by Medaglia d’Oro – A+ nick, 3/5, Denali
7. #398 – c – Medaglia d’Oro – Rapid Repair by Arch – A+ nick, 4/4, Claiborne
8. #126 – f – Liam’s Map – Adream by Bernardini – A++ nick, 4/1, Four Star
9. x
10. x
11. #975 – f – Mendelssohn – Destiny Unbound by Galileo – C nick, 4/10, Indian Creek
12. #301 – f – City of Light – Keri Belle by Empire Maker – A++., 4/10, Valkyre
13. #879 – c – Vino Rosso – Wilson’s Creek by Bernardini – A++ nick, 3/7, Warrendale
14. #153 – c – Catholic Boy – Berncredit by Bernstein – C+ nick, 4/5, Beau Lane
15. #81 – c – Omaha Beach – Theysken’s Theory by Bernardini – C+ nick, 1/28, Claiborne
16. #151 – f – Gun Runner – Bella Rafaela by Smart Strike – D nick, 2/16, Four Star
17. #26 – f – Audible – Safwah by Medaglia d’Oro – B nick 4/21, Eaton
18. #113 – c – Bolt d’Oro – Wealth Effect by Curlin – B+, 3/6, Taylor Made
19. #1069 – f – Mitole – Lilacs and Lilies by Bodemeister – F nick, 2/3, Four Star
20. #480 – c – Catalina Cruiser – Thatcher by Giant’s Causeway – B nick, 2/13, Lane’s End

A few to think about:

1. #29 – c – Justify by a Galileo mare
2. #53 – c – Blame by QR mare
3. #63 – f – Kitten’s Joy by Galileo mare, D nick
4. #82 – c – Gun Runner by a Vindication mare
5. #115 – c – Uncle Mo by a Galileo mare
6. #117 – f – Into Mischief by a Galileo mare

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Session 5 – #1131 – 1546. median 2021 – $125,000

1. #1327 – c – Omaha Beach – Betsy Draper by Street Sense – B nick, 5/5, Runnymeade
2. #1160 – f – Omaha Beach – Reach the Stars by Galileo- A nick, 4/25, Hill n Dale
3. #1384 – f – Liam’s Map – Delightful by Bernardini – A++ nick, 5/12, Gainsway
4. #1363 – f – Mendelssohn – Cleo by Pioneerof the Nile – A++ nick, 4/22, Pope
5. #1243 – f – Bolt d’Oro – Thr Rahy Angel by Rahy – A+ nick, 5/14, Lane’s End
6. #1545 – f – City of Light – On the Trail by Bernardini – A+ nick, 4/15 Denali
7. #1225 – c – Cairo Prince – Sweet Lady by Scat Daddy – A++ nick, 5/7 Hill n Dale
8. #1454 – f – Mitole – Ice Women by Street Sense – B nick, 3/28, Taylor
9. #1388 – c – Vino Rosso – Devious d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro – C + nick, 2/21, Taylor Made
10. #1364 – f – Catholic Boy – Closing Statement by Blame – D nick, 2/13, Columbiana
11. #1421 – c – Catholic Boy – Flagstaff by Dansili – C nick, 3/5, St. George
12. #1470 – c – Enticed – Kitty Quality by Quality Road – D nick, 3/27, St, Simon

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session 6 – #1547 – #1958 2021 median – $85,000

1. #1646 – c – Omaha Beach – Taralena by Arch – A, 5/2, Candy
2. #1558 – f – Oscar Performance – Posy Script by quality Road, B+, 3/17, Mill
3. #1554 – f – Union Rags – Place des Voges, D, 4/21 Warrendale
4. #1591 – f – Catholic Boy – Season Ticket by LDK, A++/ 2/27
5. #1580 – c – Mitole – Sahara Wind by AP Indy – A, 5/23 Warrendale
6. #1877 – f – Vino Rossa – Kuna by Scat Daddy – A++. 3/10, Vinery
7. #1593 – f – Vino Rossa – Seeking the Blue by Arch – C, 4/20, Stone
8. #1806 – c – Blame – Estill by Bernardini – B, 4/28, Stone Farm
9. #1576 – f – Blame – Romantic Frolic by Vindication – A, 5/3
10. #1640 – f – Cairo Prince – Sweet Pistol by Smart Strike, C, 5/2, Airdrie

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session 7 – #1959 – #2369. 2021 median – $60,000

1. #2164 – f – Bee Jersey – Christmas Cove by More Than Ready – ??nick , strong family, 2/14
2. #2015 – c – Vino Rosso – Snow Dancer by Bernardini – A++ nick, nick of Clairere, 5/3
3. #2185 – f – Catholic Boy – Cumbria by Distorted Humor – B, 3/18, Runnymeade
4. #1977 – f – Preservationist – Purr by Bluegrass Cat – C+ nick, sneaky family, 5/2
5. #1970 – f – Mitole – Pointe Class by Arch – C nick, dam a $250,000 yearling, 2/14
6. #2296 – f – Vino Rosso – Last Standing by Hard Spun – B+ nick, 5/1
7. #2301 – f -Catholic Boy – Lemarchos by Lemon Drop Kid, A++ nick, big producing 2nd dam, 1/30
8. 2311 – f – Dialed In – Lotta Lolly by Smart Strike, A nick, 4/25
9. #2039 – f – Maximus Mischief. – Taker Home by Vindication, 2/23
10. #2364 – f – Mendelssohn – Off the Boat by More than Ready – A nick, strong family, 5/5

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session 8 – median 2021 – $45,000

1. #2429 – f – Blame – Silk Assassin by Bernardini – B nick, great 2nd dam, Ballysax,
2. #2392 – f – Cairo Prince – Rachel Well by Blame – NR nick, mare won at 1 1/2, Stoneriggs ??, 3/23 foal
3. #2495 – c – Oscar Performance – Unicity by Dynaformer – B+ nick, nick of Sadler’s Joy, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 4/28 foal
4. #2513 – f – Oscar Performance – Willathewest by Gone West – A nick, interesting 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 3/14
5. #2591 – f – Oscar Performance – Dabinett by Blame, B nick, mare won for Chad at 4, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 2/28, first foal
6. #2683 – c – Oscar Performance – Journey On by Nureyev, A+ nick, 3×4 to Nureyev, dam of Carmel Crush, KatieRich, 1/29
7. #2590 – f – Catholic Boy – Cry Hallelujah b Street Cry, B nick, Katierich, 4/4
8. #2734 – f – Catholic Boy – Marypop by Layman, A++ nick, Mulholland Springs, 4/23, mare ran in Beverly D
9. #2694 – f – Vino Rosso – Kitten’s Catch by Kitten’s Joy, A+ nick, Warrendale, 2/12
10. #2579 – f – Summer Front – Complicated by Blame – A nick, strong family, Indian Creek, 2/29
11. #2538 – c – Unified – Bemus Point by Bernardini – A nick, 2/13
12. #2607 – c – Accelerate – Dreamy Lady by Giant’s Causeway, A+, 4/28, Burleson
13. #2466 – f – Karokontie – Summer Sweet by More than Ready, A, 3/12. Stone
14. #2539 – f – Catalina Cruiser – Bert’s Altarcation – A++, 3/23, Vinery
15. #2726 – c – Catalina Cruiser – Malibu Mudslide – D, 5/15, Four Star

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Session 9. #2781 – #3185

1. x
2. 2
3. #2784 – f – Collected – Patricia’s Kitten by Kitten’s Joy – B+, 5/10, Garrencasey
4. x
5. x
6. x
7. x
8. x
9. #2965 – Accelerate – Blue Dahlia by Giant’s Causeway, A+, 4/15, Sally Thomas

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Other:

Session 10 – #3184 – #3587

1. #3402 – c – Lookin at Lucky
2. #3333 – f – Astern – Ad In by Street Sense – A+, 2/23, St George

The Keeneland catalog is out without photos or videos.

I am looking for horses in the $40,000 – $80,000 price range. I will start with session 8. Last year the median price was $60,000 for this session. #2370 to #2780

I am looking for:

1. Mares with the breeding to be decent 2 turn horses, or that ran well over 1 mile
2. Mares that are relatively few successful foals (to keep the price down)
3. Mares that were not successful runners until they were 3 (too keep the pinhookers away)
4. I would prefer an extended family (2nd dam and below) that emphasizes stamina
5. it would a plus if the foal was born after about April 15th (again to keep the pinhookers away
6. I would prefer a sire from maybe my top 20, but others might be possible
7. I would prefer a consigners I know, but I am willing to learn
8. I would prefer a True Nicks rating of B or better
9. I will take a “balanced” horse, but I would prefer a taller horse that might “grow into” its body
10. I am looking for a horse with an athletic walk
11. my preference is for a filly, but colts are possible

I will start building my list here:

2. x
3. x

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xxxxx

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1. #2429 – f – Blame – Silk Assassin by Bernardini – B nick, great 2nd dam, Ballysax,
2. #2392 – f – Cairo Prince – Rachel Well by Blame – NR nick, mare won at 1 1/2, Stoneriggs ??, 3/23 foal
3. #2495 – c – Oscar Performance – Unicity by Dynaformer – B+ nick, nick of Sadler’s Joy, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 4/28 foal
4. #2513 – f – Oscar Performance – Willathewest by Gone West – A nick, interesting 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 3/14
5. #2591 – f – Oscar Performance – Dabinett by Blame, B nick, mare won for Chad at 4, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 2/28, first foal
6. #2683 – c – Oscar Performance – Journey On by Nureyev, A+ nick, 3×4 to Nureyev, dam of Carmel Crush, KatieRich, 1/29
7. #2590 – f – Catholic Boy – Cry Hallelujah b Street Cry, B nick, Katierich, 4/4
8. #2734 – f – Catholic Boy – Marypop by Layman, A++ nick, Mulholland Springs, 4/23, mare ran in Beverly D
9. #2694 – f – Vino Rosso – Kitten’s Catch by Kitten’s Joy, A+ nick, Warrendale, 2/12
10. #2579 – f – Summer Front – Complicated by Blame – A nick, strong family, Indian Creek, 2/29

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Let’s also do a list for session #9. #2781-#3183. medianprice = $30,000

1. #2938 – f – Cairo Prince – Acquant by Giant’s Causeway – A+ nick, Dynaformer 2nd dam, Denali, 4/23
2. #3060 – c – Summer Front – Gigahertz by Dynaformer
3. #3020 – f – Karokontie

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session 7

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1. #2164 – f – Bee Jersey – Christmas Cove by More Than Ready – ??nick , strong family, 2/14
2. #2015 – c – Vino Rosso – Snow Dancer by Bernardini – A++ nick, nick of Clairere, 5/3
3. #1977 – f -Preservevationist – Purr by Bluegrass Cat – C+ nick, sneaky family, 5/2
4. #1970 – f – Mitole – Pointe Class by Arch – C nick, dam a $250,000 yearling, 2/14
5. #2296 – f – Vino Rosso – Last Standing by Hard Spun – B+ nick, 5/1
6. #2301 – f -Catholic Boy – Lemarchos by Lemon Drop Kid, A++ nick, big producing 2nd dam, 1/30
7. x
8. 2311 – f – Dialed In – Lotta Lolly by Smart Strike, A nick, 4/25
9. #2039 – f – Maximus Mischief. – Taker Home by Vindication, 2/23
10. #2364 – f – Mendelssohn – Off the Boat by More than Ready – A nick, strong family, 5/5

The big yearling sale was a little too expensive for my taste. There were 14 horses that sold for more than $1million, the median price inched forward to $375,000. The RNA percentage was fairly low. even with the market down 20% horses are still expensive.

There was one horse that I was interested in that sold for “only” $275,000

#195 – f – Flatter – Galileo’s Melody by Galileo – I just love her photo. I am not a fan of Flatter, but I love the photo so much I really like this horse.

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The NY-bred sale is tonight. Last year the median price was $70,000. So there are a few I am interested in.

By far my favorite horse is:

#365 – f – Mastery – Morrow by Pivotal

I am losing confidence in Mastery, but I love the female family and the photo.

A few others I will watch:

#355 – Flameaway – Missiletoe Kiss by Golden Missile

#389 – Destin – Queen of the Night by Sadler’s Wells

#434 – Oscar Performance – Tarrip by Green Desert

#515 – Vinno Rosso – Call to Service by To Honor and Serve

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xx

Not sure what to make of this yearling sales. Last year the median was $80,000 and the average $100,000.

What a mess. After looking at the horses, I understand this sale even less. One possibility is that this is the Wesly Ward sale. The idea might be for pinhookers to get the horse even earlier to have them ready for the 2 year old sales, or the guys who want to run early next year.

My top choices:

I am going to stick with horses with a video/photo, maybe this is too strict:

1. #77 – f – Catholic Boy – C nick, 4 x 4 to AP Indy, Seth Klarman paid $200,000 for the mare by Orb. 2nd dam a stakes winner at 7 furlongs, and a winner of $1,000,000, $36,000 Navas Equine
2. #36 – c – Vino Rosso – A nick, I love the photo, mare was $10,000 claimer, but did win allowance race at Laurel, 3rd dam produced Spain, $200,000 McPeek
3. #62 – c – Catholic Boy – C nick, nice The Factor mare, ran a 101 Equibase routing on the turf, consigner by Woodford, Gina Fennell $75,000
4. #48 – c – Vino Rosso – C nick, decent Godolphin mare by Speightsown, nice photo, $180,000 McPeek
5. #194 – f – Tonalist – D nick, ok City Zip mare, family of Honor AP, $15,000 Ballyntine
6. #165 – f – Mendelssohn – C+ nick, nice Street Cry mare, ok photo, $310,000 George Low
7. #115 – c – Blame – good Kitten’s Joy mare, great photo, $200,000 Waystar

could not find a Enticed, Flameaway, Preservationist I liked

Let’s list a few:

My first run threw the list.

1. #5 – Demarchelier – ok, maryland bred $50,000? $22,000 RNA
2. #7 – Catholic Boy – ok Unbridled Song mare $100,000?, withdrawn
3. #15 – Flamaway – first foal, bad mare mary bred $30,000?
4. #18 – Preservationist – bad mare, $25,000, no photo 25,000?
5. #22 – Preservationaist – weak mare, City Zip, no photo $40,000
6. #28 – Flameaway – ok Speightstown mare, no photo, $50,000, $190,000
7. #30 – Enticed – weak Formal Dinner mare, $30,000
8. #34 – Catholic Boy – decent Tapit mare, $80,000, no photo, $10,000
9. #36 c – Vino Rosso – decent Indygo Shiner mare, great photo $100,000? top choice
10. #40 f – Enticed – older Wild Again mare, no photo, $40,000?
11. #41 f – Vino Rosso – ok Malibu Moon mare, no photo $60,000, $110,000
12. #44 c – Vino Rosso – great Giant’s Causeway mare, $150,000, texas bred, short neck
13. #45 f – Vino Rosso – weak Holy Bull mare, bad photo, $40,000
14. #46 c – Vino Rosso – ok Sky Mesa mare, $60,000, strange photo, $200,000
15. #48 c – Vino Rosso – weak Speightstown mare, great family, great photo $100,000
16. #53 f – Vino Rosso – weak Hard Spun mare, ok photo, $40,000, $45,000
17. #57 f – Enticed – weak Archarcharch mare, ok photo, $50,000, $35,000 Taproot Bloodstock
18. #58 f – Vino Rosso – very weak mare, penn bred, $20,000 , $110,000 RNA
19. #62 c – Catholic Boy – nice The Factor mare, first foal, good photo $120,000
20. #63 c – Flameaway – bad mare, decent photo, $30,000
21. #72 c – Preservatioist – bad mare, oklahoma bred $30,000, $44,000 RNA
22. #74 – Flameaway
23. #75 – Vino Rosso
24. #77 – Catholic Boy – Orb mare maybe, decent family, $100,000
25. #79 – Vino Rosso – sprinty mare, $90,000
26. #81 – Enticed – poor mare
27. #87 – Flameaway – Kitten’s Joy mare, bad photo, $75,000
28. #115 – Blame – decent Kitten’s Joy mare
29. #119 – Preservationist – sprinty mare
30. #125 – Summer Front – Tiznow mare, maybe?? $110,000 McPeek again
31. #130 – Vino Rosso – ok mare
32. #134 – Vino Rosso – Cape Blanco mare, Dynaformer, maybe, ok photo $65,000 RNA
33. #165 f- Mendelssohn, Street Sense mare, ok photo, great family $200,000
34. #194 – f – Tonalist, City Zip mare, family of Honor AP, great photo
35. #197 – Vino Rosso – Stormy Atlantic, good photo, maybe, $125,000
36. #229 – Tonalist – Street Cry mare, good photo, $100,000
37. #238 – Mastery – ok Unbridled Song mare, $50,000, $12,000 AP Stable
38. #239 – Connect – decent Street Sense mare, no photo, $150,000
39. #243 – Bernardini – good Street Sense mare , $150,000
40. #246 – Kitten’s Joy – nice Irish mare, $100,000, no photo, $32,000 Country Life
41. #256 – Accelerate – nice Giant’ Causeway, ok photo, $15,000 Deegan
42. #269 – Connect – ok Mineshaft mare, ok photo, $80,000, $19,000 RNA
43. #295 – Mastery – ok Malibu Moon mare
44. #297 – Summer Front, $130,000

This is the first of many profile’s of good 2 year old’s that I “missed” at the Keeneland sale last year.

Divemaster made a strong late run to win a $120,000 MSW at Churchill. He did not beat much, but the late run was visually impressive.

Divemaster is a son of Mastery. Mastery was a very unpopular sire last fall. Jerry Caroom paid only $55,000 for hip #615 . That is a well below average price for the third day at Keeneland.

Why was he so cheap?

1. The mare by Empire Maker was a very solid horse, winning $112,000 and getting 3rd in a G3 stake. She did win until June of her three year old season for distance specialist Mike Matz. Her only winning foal was also a late developer, but did win over $300,000. With no signs of precocity, the pinhookers run away.
2. Divemaster was a May 10th foal, another thing the pinhookers hate.
3. Mastery was a very disappointing sire in his first crop

The consigner was Valkyre Stud. VS is small operation that sold only five horses at the September sale. They did have one RNA for $100,000. They have sold some expensive horses in the last few years. They seems to be an interesting group to keep track of

I guess I should look at Donegal’s 2021 yearling group, so I can see if I am missing another Belmont winner.

Here is the Donegal group from Keeneland 2021:

1. Donegal Danny – Maclean’s Music by a Gio Ponti mare. $290,000 – Just to taunt me Donegal went with a sprint oriented sire for their most expensive horse. The photo makes him look fairly long and “stretchy”, but can no long accept Maclean’s Music as a sire.
2. Donegal Magic – Good Magic by a Street Sense mare. $200,000 – In all honesty the Good Magic’s have been visually very unimpressive. The mare is solid, but I am not excited with this second choice.
3. Donegal Forever – Pioneerof the Nile by a Flatter mare – $170,000 – I am little scared this is a TGTBT price for the last son’s on PON.
4. Lord Donegal – Noble Mission by a Smart Strike mare, 2nd dam won the Black Eyed Susan – $155,000 for hip #3084 – A fantastic horse, maybe my new favorite from the Keeneland sale. A great example of “paying up” for a horse late in the sale. My pick to win the 2024 Belmont.
5. Donegal Surges – Candy Ride by a Bernardini mare – $150,000 – I am not a Candy Ride fan, but everything is better with a Bernardini mare. A very nice horse.
6. Donegal Factor – The Factor by a Blame mare – $105,000 – A very interesting horse and a great value from a sire I am beginning to appreciate.
7. Donegal Mischief – Into Mischief by a Distorted Humor mare – $90,000 – A risky TGTBT price for a sire I detest.
8. Donegal Arrow – Arrogate by a Vindication mare, Vindication is the last on of Seattle Slew – $130,000 at Fasig Tipton – I am not really an Arrogate fan, but I love Vindication as a broodmare sire.
9. Tiz Donegal – Tiznow by a Mineshaft mare – $130,000 at Saratoga, a NY bred – $130,000 – Reasonable horse, but not thrilling.

This is a solid group, but I really do not like the top two, which is exactly what I said about the partnership that produced Mo Donegal.

Mr. Crawford spent $1,420,000 on nine horse for his partners.

Let me try to build my Extremely Arrogant Bastard portfolio to compete with Donegal:

1. Supernova – Mendelssohn by a Galileo mare – $150,000 – trusting the Oracle guys
2. Billy’s Got Issues – Cairo Prince by a Tiznow mare – $110,000 – again trusting Oracle
3. We Will Conquer – Accelerate by a Seeking the Gold mare – $200,000 – 2nd dam a half to AP Indy
4. Professor Higgins – Oscar Performance by a More Than Ready mare – $125,000
5. LeBeau – Mendelssohn by a Chester House mare – $320,000
6. xxxxxxx – City of Light by a Street Sense mare – $180,000
7. Fridaynightslodier – Connect by a The Factor mare – $150,000 –
8. I’mherefortheparty – Blame by a Medaglia d’Oro mare – $100,000 – great family
9. Best Performer – Oscar Performance by a Pulpit mare – $65,000
10. Crypto Man – Funtastic by a Elusive Quality mare – $62,000 – my favorite

It is pretty arrogant to think I can do better than the guy who picked the Belmont winner, but that my approach.

By the way, the Donegal website has a great set of yearling photos of the Donegal selections.

The obvious question is should I be willing to change my strategy to be be more accepting of sires like Uncle Mo, and horses like Mo Donegal?

Uncle Mo himself is up to a stud free of $160,000, so the real question is sires “like” him.

The answer is obvious. I will stubbornly refuse to change my strategy.

I will remain religiously and morally opposed to sires like Uncle Mo. Even if their progeny might stretch to get classic distances, they will just be to popular and therefore TOO EXPENSIVE.

The world loves those big strong 7 furlong horse that on a good day just might get 2 turns, as Uncle Mo did in the BC Juvenile (his only important win). I remain staunchly opposed to following the “cool kids”.

I did “miss” one interesting oddity that could have changed my mind about Mo Donegal.

Mo Donegal has a very strong stamina oriented 2nd dam. Island Sand won over $1,000,000 and did win the Delaware Handicap at 1 1/4. Even more interesting she produced a very successful hurdle horse that could run races at over 2 miles.

When I went to the website Pedigreequery.com, I could see that I had previously researched Island Sand. Maybe if I had noticed the hurdle horse she produced , I might have change my mind about Mo Donegal. I really did like the Centennial partnership, so I doubt anything could have changed my mind.

Every good fisherman has a story about the big fish that got away. Now I have exactly that same story.

In 2021 I talked with a nice man named Jerry Crawford about investing in his partnership that focused on winning Triple Crown races. Donegal racing had a nice group of 8 horse, with the most expensive being two sons of Uncle Mo. To me Uncle Mo is a sprint oriented son of Indian Charlie, and is exactly what I am not looking for in a sire. I was more interested in the Centennial partnership which offered more distance oriented horses. This 4 horse group has yet to win a single race.

The Donegal partnership included the Belmont stakes winner Mo Donegal.

Here was the post I wrote that included my group of mythical horse to compete against Donegal:

I received an e-mail today with what Donegal Partners calls Derby Dreams 14. They have 8 colts in a partnership with the goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has raced Arklow, Keen Ice, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado. I had a very nice conversation with their founder, Jerry Crawford, this summer. He believes in buying horses with the stamina to get 1 1/4 miles.

This is a very nice collection of horses. You can buy 1% for low to mid 5 figures (for details, contact them directly, I hesitate to disclose things that come in private e-mails). Donegal is in the middle as far as expenses. Well less than West Point/Eclipse, more than the smaller guys.

I love the Curlin, Street Sense, and Kitten’s Joy colts. I am not a fan of the Uncle Mo’s, that is my bias. Most people would disagree with me. I am also not thrilled with the Hard Spun colt. I have a neutral opinion on the Distorted Humor and Exaggerator colts. It seems that Donegal relies heavily on “heart scores” to measure stamina, and not so much on pedigree. That may be a great approach, but I am not sold just yet.

Overall the Donegal’s portfolio of horses is maybe a little behind Centennial, but it is light years better than Ten Strike or Starlight. To me the Donegal top three were better than any of the expensive horses that West Point or Eclipse bought. If the Uncle Mo’s were replaced by some more ideas like the top three, I would be an investor.

Here is the Donegal group:

1. Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya $350,000 (spectacular horse), Sweeping Giant, nothing since September 2021, 2nd at Saratoga MSW
2. Street Sense – Wedding Jitters by Broken Vow $125,000 (really nice)Knot the One, not working, 1 MSW try at Monmouth
3. Kitten’s Joy – Elemntar by More Than Ready $150,000 (maybe Arklow II), Ready to Purrform, won the Laurel Futurity, $141,000, 2nd in Pimlico Stakes
4. Uncle Mo – Runaway Ready by Mr. Greeley $400,000 (they own 1/2), Lundberg, working at Oaklawn, bad in MC at Oaklawn
5. Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown by Pulpit $250,000, Mo Donegal, Won the G2 Remsen, Wood Memorial, and Belmont Stakes, 1,500,000
6. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker $140,000 (more of a miler to me), Tricolour claimed at FG for $40,000
7. Distorted Humor – Namaskara by Giant’s Causeway $130,000 (solid), Gooch Go Bragh, 5 tries to break maiden, has won $40,000, claimed for $50,000 by Danny Gargan
8. Exaggerator – Lookingforchange by Gilded Time $70,000 (ok, Gilded Time?), Hyperbolist, working at FG, 5 bad MSW tries at EVG

If you think Uncle Mo is a great source of stamina, then this is a very resonable group of horse. If you think that the Uncle Mo is just another Indian Charlie sprinter that had a few good races, then the group only gets a B, maybe a B+.

Here is the Arrogant Bastard 2 portfolio to compete with Donegal:

1. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000, Videri, working in Florida
2. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180,000, Swing Shift, working in Florida
3. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat $150,000, Portsmouth, 3 tries in MSW in California
4. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140,000, Camargo, 3 tries at MC at OP
5. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000, MSW winner at SA
6. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100,000, Raghadan, not working
7. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000, 3 tries MSW at SA
8. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200,000, Mazuma, 3 tries MSW at FG
9. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000, Classic King , not working

My horses were a little less expensive so I took 9 to reach the roughly $1,400,000 that Donegal spent.

I am sure that 95% of investors would feel more “comfortable” with the Donegal portfolio, only really arrogant bastards would believe in the bottom portfolio.

The results will be in two+ years, may the best man win.

I just cannot let those poor results from Myracehorse is the previous post go unanswered. If all you can do is earn 50% of your expenses by buying $250,000 yearlings in 2020 (at least $325,000 today), then horse racing might be best left for royalty.

Let’s try to build two 14 horse portfolio’s with last year’s yearlings and see if we can do better.

The first group will be under $55,000 and the second group will average $80,000.

$55,000 and under:

1. Irish Empress – f – by Classic Empire, $15,000, Blue Streak and Oracle Bloodstock
2. Bad Samaritan – f – by Good Samaritan, $30,000, Blue Streak and Oracle
3. Remastered – c – by Mastery, $30,000, Brilliant Racing
4. Arc Light – f – Sharp Azteca, $20,000, Pocket Aces
5. Proud Performer – c – Oscar Performance, $45,000, Robinson
6. Delphia – f – Mucho Macho Man, $40,000, Donato Lanni
7. Minari – f – Oscar Performance, $45,000, Jason Hall
8. Fastbyte – f – Oscar Performance, $35,000, KatieRich Farm
9. Fly Condor – f – Army Mule, $52,000, Meah Bloodstock
10. Proud Mary – f – Point of Entry, $32,000, Donato Lanni
11. Influentialous – f – The Factor, $37,000, Barberino
12. Wreaking Havoc – f – Mastery, $55,000, Sanders
13. Honor Lord – c – Honor Code, $55,000, Oracle
14. Miss Kristy – f – Good Samaritan, $55,000, Viries

Lots of horse have a $50,000 reserve and the first bid after that is $55,000

Higher Quality – over $55,000:

1. Best Performer – f – Oscar Performance, $65,000, Sanders
2. Crypto Man – Funtastic – c – $62,000, Omni Racing
3. Acquired Class – c – Cairo Prince – $70,000, SoCal Seven
4. Imherefortheparty – f – Blame, $100,000, Homewrecker
5. Norfie – Accelerate – c – $72,000, Cal Rock
6. Billy’s Got Issues – c – Cairo Prince, $110,000, Oracle
7. The Alys Look – f – Connect, $60,000, Thrash
8. Big Sur – c – West Coast, $95,000, Brilliant
9. Toast to Coast – West Coast – c – $65,000, Willis Horton
10. Magistrate – Tapwrit – c – $75,000, Adelphi
11. xxxxxxxxx – Midnight Storm – f – $60,000, Lindsey Schultz
12. Ghostly Girl – f – Shamen Ghost, $100,000, McPeek
13. Philharmonic – Mendelssohn – c – $140,000, Monarossa
14. xxxxxxx – Creative Cause – c – $60,000, Brilliant Racing

Let’s see what the rate of return is one this portfolio over the next two years. This group is very representative of my current strategy. The Mendelssohn is my one “luxury”

Below are the 14 horses that Myracehorse.com put together two years ago and sold micro-shares. I “invested” $50.

The results are a little scary. They bought over $3,000,000 of horses and have won about $500,000 in purse money. A very rough estimate of training expenses would be 13 horses x 18 months x $4,000/month = about $1,000,000

Provocateur might still be a good horse, and a few have yet to run. There are 3 that might be solid allowance horses, but 8 are complete washouts. It is too early to pass final judgement, but the early lean is toward “disaster”

This was paying $250,000 -$300,000 on average for yearlings two years ago. The reality of these selections must be evaluated carefully. This was a portfolio of nice horses.

Why would anyone in their right mind think they can buy successful yearlings for $50,000-$100,000?

1. A Mo Reay – f – Uncle Mo, $400,000, Pletcher, MSW winner at AQU, and an allowance race at LRL, has won $151,000
2. Above Suspicion – f – Honor Code, $210,000, G. Mandella, not yet racing, 4 works at SA
3. Can’t Hush This – c – Not This Time, $220,000, Amoss, has run poorly is 3 MSW, winnings $4,000
4. Dolce Notte – f – Bernardini, $180,000, Mott, has not raced, or worked
5. Frosted Oats – c – Frosted, $250,000, Mott, 2nd in MSW at BEL, winnings $48,000
6. Inalattetrouble – f – Into Mischief , $195,000, Stall, not working, never raced
7. Infinite Empire – f – Empire Maker, $360,000. Baffert, one start $14,000, out 8 months, working at SA
8. Lookwhogotlucky – c – Lookin for Lucky, $115,000, Asmussen, 4 starts, 4th in a $25,000 MC in Houston, won a $7,500 MC at LS, has won $11,000
9. Man Among Men – c – War Front, $360,000, G. Mandella, has not raced yet, 6 works at SA
10. Provocateur – c – Into Mischief – $600,000, Pletcher, 2nd in the Pasco at TB, has earned $160,000, 3rd in the Woody Stephens
11. Quantum Theory – c – Connect – $50,000, Clement, won a MC at GP, has won $34,000, ran for a $40,000 tag
12. Sacred Beauty – f – Classic Empire, $80,000, Blacker, won a $8,000 MC at GG, claimed for $16,000, has become decent stater allowance horse for new owner
13. Sixtythreecaliber – f – Gun Runner, $250,000, Amoss, has won a MSW and Allowance race at Indiana, winnings, $42,000
14. Kantharos (died in training accident)

Myracehorse.com has done a nice job of communicating and it has been my fault for not reading all the e-mails. It was $50 well spent to watch this group.

I would rather not get in the middle of the Authentic/Myracehose controversy. Other sites have done enough to cover those issues.

Myracehorse.com has slowed their purchases since Mr. Hughes passed away in August 2021.

I am going to change my sire ranking going forward.

Horses are getting more expensive and it seems to be the right time to react to that reality. For the foreseeable future I am limiting my choices to sires of $20,000 and below. As I face the reality of paying real money for a real horse, I am getting cheaper.

Several yearling consigners have suggested that 3x the stud fee is a reasonable measure of the price they would like to get. I have a feeling that trying to buy a $30,000 stud fee at 2x might get you a horse with some physical issues. Maybe this will change if the economy weakens, but for now cheaper is better.

My new rankings:

1. Oscar Performance – $12,500/ Mill Ridge – I hope new runner Andthewinneris does not go crazy
2. Cairo Prince – $15,000/Airdrie – still a sneaky turf sire
3. Accelerate – $15,000/Lane’s End – I loved the guy I saw at Timonium
4. The Factor – $17,500/Lane’s End – maybe I am trying too hard to find a turf sire
5. Funtastic – $5,000/Three Chimney’s – deserves special mention
6. Tapwrit – $10,000/Gainsway – I have been surprised by what I have seen
7. Honor Code – $20,000/Lane’s End – really just a placeholder for Honor AP next year
8. Blame – $20,000/Claiborne – son of Arch declining in popularity
9. Girvin – $6,000/Ocala Stud – let’s try a Florida sire with some speed, I have liked their looks at the 2 year old sales
10. Creative Cause – $7,500/Airdrie – and all the other under $10,000 sires, I really would rather pay up for a cheaper sire, than try to find a $30,000 sire at a bargain price

This list now excludes the likes of Connect, Union Rags, Mendelssohn, and several other more expensive sires. It also excludes the more speed oriented farms Spendthrift/WinStar and Ashford/Darley

There are plenty of interesting new sires for 2022. I think that at least 6 will move into my top 10 right away.

1. Catholic Boy – $20,000 stud fee – median yearling $40,000 – he brings dirt and turf ability with a nice combination of More Than Ready from a Bernadini mare, and a family that includes Nijinsky in the 4th dam. He was trained by lower profile Johnathon Thomas. He won at 10 furlongs on dirt and turf, but was precocious to win the Remsen at 2.
2. Vino Rosso – $20,000 stud fee – median yearling $82,000 – he is a nice combination of Curlin from a Street Cry mare. He was dominant at 10 furlongs at 4, but did win twice at 2. He was trained by Todd.
3. Flameaway – $7,500 stud fee – median yearling $16,000 – he is by Scat Daddy from a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, and a great Irish extended family. He was trained by by Mark Casse and won 3 times as a 2 year old. Stands at low profile Darby Dan.
4. Divisidero – $5,000 stud fee – median yearling $15,000 – A son of Kitten’s Joy from a Lemon Drop Kid mare and a British/French family. He was trained by the ultra low profile William Bradley. He was best at 9 furlongs, and did not start until he was 3.
5. Demarchelier – $5,000 stud fee – median yearling $16,000 – He is a son of Dubawi (stud fee $300,000+) from a Sadler’s Well’s mare. He had only a 4 race career for Chad.
6. Preservationist – $10,000 – median yearling $22,000 – son of Arch from a Dixieland Band mare and an AP Indy family. Because of injury he did not win until he was 5, but then won at 10 furlongs when he was 6.
7. Enticed – $5,000 stud fee – median yearling $25,000 – A regally bred son of Medaglia d’Oro and a G1 winning Mineshaft mare. Kirian McLauglin was the trainer.

Honorable Mention:

1. Catalina Cruiser, $15,000 – son of Union Rags
2. St Patricks Day – $5,000 – son of Pioneer ofthe Nile

Not a Fan Of:

1. Audible, $25,000, yearlings $85,000 – son of Into Mischief
2. Copper Bullet – son of More Than Ready
3. Maximus Mischief, $7,500, yearlings $35,000 – very popular son of Into Mischief
4. Mitole $15,000, yearlings $60,000 – son of Eskendereya
5. Omaha Beach $30,000, weanlings $150,000 – son of War Front
6. World of Trouble
7. Yoshida $12,500, yearlings $18,000 – grandson of Sunday Silence

I would be a great hypocrite if I did not pick Nest to win this Belmont. She is the ultimate plodder/plodder with great breeding that should love the 1 1/2 mile distance. She is also partially owned by the nice folks at Eclipse. I wish there was more pace in the race to set up her late run, but I cannot bet against her.

I am a crazy person, she will be a single on my pick 6 ticket.

Mo Donegal is the most likely winner, but I still do not like Uncle Mo’s going long. I had a chance to invest in this partnership and I passed. I have to “stick to my guns”, and bet against this horse.

Rich Strike should have been my Derby horse. I am the only guy in the word who was interested in Keen Ice as a sire, but never found one at a sale that I liked. I should have been watching the $30,000 maiden claimers. I am 100% convinced the connections did the right thing is skipping the Preakness. If not for Nest, this would be my pick.

Creative Minister is interesting because the dam’s pedigree has some interesting stamina influences, but I cannot agree with 4 races in 9 weeks.

We The People might get loose on the lead, but I cannot play a Constitution to go 1 1/2 miles.

I give the others little chance.

One fun note is that a horse from my original selections for the June 2020 Ocala sale is entered on the undercard in the turf sprint race, the Jaipur.

Whatmakessammyrun is a longshot, but he has a new trainer. This guy is a son of the already forgotten sire We Miss Artie. I loved his walking video, and I the price was right at only $30,000.

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Nest ran a solid race, and was bet down to 5-1. Let’s call that a moral victory for the plodder/plodder’s of the world.

Mo Donegal was a little better, but I still do not want to buy any Uncle Mo’s. They will be too expensive anyway.

Whatmakessammyrun had a tough trip and finished a decent 5th. His sire We Miss Artie now stands for $1,000 is New Mexico. All we have to do is convince Ruidoso to open a turf track.

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I am very skeptical of this sale. While walking around the Ocala sale in April I heard one medium size consigner asked, “what kind of horses will you have in June?” the consigner responded all to honestly,

” I have two that are ok, and about a dozen bad ones”

If the horse are any good they should be in the April sale, because many buyers do not even appear at this sale.

Obviously there are some horses that have small problems that end up in this sale, and some late developers may have little choice. I will build a list of 10, but I will approach with great caution:

1. Get Stormy – Cosmic Energy by Unbridled Energy – c – $85,000 Taproot Bloodstock, this is a Phil Hager selection that is using the obscure/deceased sire strategy, 21.1 work, 5/4 foal
2. Always Dreaming – Waltzing Matilda by Danehill Dancer – c – $70,000 Oracle Bloodstock, let’s watch the Oracle guys, mare won a G2 at 1 /1/4 miles on the turf, 21.2 work
3. Oscar Performance – Sparkle Factor by Arch – c – $45,000 Acadiana, the best OP in the sale, mare did not win until she was 5 in Ireland, 10.1 work, 4/24 foal
4. Funtastic – Peace Opportunity by Point of Entry – c – $70,000 Rob Orr, a favorite obscure sire, 21.0 work
5. Girvin – Ocean Boulevard by Fusaichi Pegasus – f – $32,000 de la Cerda, this is a sire I want to watch. long legged photo, 21.3 work, 4/18 foal
6. Girvin – Greely’s Girl by Mr Greeley, – c – $87,000 Fernando Abreu, really like the look of the Girvin’s, 10.2 work
7. Funtastic – Foxy Cleo by Whywhywhy – c – $25,000 Legion Bloodstock, let’s try a bargain Funtastic, 22.0 work, 4/10 foal
8. Cairo Prince – Erma Lee by Stormy Atlantic, $50,000 Douglas Reddington, the best CP at the sale, 10.1 work
9. Midnight Storm – Sterling Madame by Unbridled Energy, $50,000 Raffaella Di Paola, will not give up on this sire, 10.1 work
10. Noble Mission – Thatza Wrap by Hard Spun, $57,000 Mongolian Stable, 5/1 foal

I am not optimistic about this group, but maybe there is some value here. The “cool kids” were not buyers here. West Point bought one horse, and a few smaller partnerships bought a few horses, but not much.

Let’s watch.

I did get a chance to attend this sale in person. I learned that maybe half of the horses have fairly significant vet issues. The reported median price of a horse from this sale is $50,000, but I would guess that the median price for a “clean” horse with an average work time is over $100,000.

I think the other thing this sale made me focus on were the wise words of an experienced buyer,

“know your consigner”

I will work on a list of 10 horses:

1. Creative Cause – Hold Her Tight by Proud Citizen – c – $60,000 Brilliant Racing, this was a solid looking horse
2. Accelerate – Cat Walk by Union Rags – c – $135,000 George Weaver, my favorite horse by a wide margin, great pedigree, great look, small consigner old jockey Joe Deegan, 4/19 foal
3. Bayern – Mattie Ross by Unbridled Song – c – $100,000 Chad Schumer, I am no fan of Bayern, but this was a great looking, long and strong, horse
4. Tapwrit – Moonbow by Distorted Humor – f – $65,000 Myracehorse.com, a nice looking horse with an unusual pedigree
5. Tonalist – Listowel by Mineshaft – f – $70,000 Danny Brown – great looking horse, nice size
6. Will Take Charge – Weekend Fantasy by Pleasantly Perfect -c – RNA $45,000 but lets see what consigner Tom McCrocklin does with this one, really big horse that could pull a plow if he can’t run
7. Collected – Aurore by Arch – $250,000 by Taproot, expensive but great stamina potential
8. Bee Jersey – La Soul by Perfect Soul – $125,000 Jack Wagon Stable, some vet issues
9. Jimmie Creed – South Andros by Sky Mesa – $155,000 Mike McCarthy, big strong horse that I was sure would sell for less than $75,000
10. Mendelssohn – Kaloura by Sinndar – nice looking horse with some vet issues, but Oracle was a buyer
11. City of Light – Betty Draper by Street Cry, $220,000 Legions Bloodstock, my favorite yearling, maybe I will call Legion at see if I can by a piece

Since I did have Rombauer last year, let’s take a shot at two in a row.

My pick is Early Voting. Owner Seth Klarman was an investor that purchased our research for over 15 years. He is an interesting guy to watch buy horses. In the real world Seth is a value investor. He does not buy the most popular stocks, or horses.

Klarman paid only $200,000 for this son of Gun Runner at the Keeneland. There were 13 more expensive Gun Runners at the 2020 Keeneland sale. There were 3 that sold for $750,000 each. Klarman found the value by buying into a dam by plodding Tiznow mare that had never raced. This was the perfect “empty” mare. I did not understand this strategy at first, but now I am a believer.

Worthy of note is Creative Minister. This was $180,000 Keeneland yearling from a very unpopular $5,000 sire Creative Cause. The mare was 1 for 24 at Charles Town. The hip number was #1998, maybe day 6 of the 12 day sale. This must have been one great looking horse.

Of course selling as hip #1946 in the same sale was a little horse named Epicenter that sold for a reasonable $260,000 for a son of Not This Time. The mare was a decent allowance winner at Arlington Park, but nothing special.

Armagnac was a $210,000 Quality Road at the same sale, again a bargain.

Skippylonstocking sold for $15,000 as hip #2811 at the same sale.

Fenwick was a $52,000 yearling at the Fasig-Tipton October sale. Given he is a son of Curling he must have had some vet issues.

Happy Jack was offered at a breeding stock sale in November and he was RNAed. Simplification was a $50,000 RNA as a yearling.

Secret Oath is a home bred where the owners paid I think %50,000 for Arrogate’s services.

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It was good to get Early Voting home as the winner of the Preakness at 5-1. Gun Runner is an expensive sire, but more of a plodder than a speed demon. The Tiznow mare pretty much makes him a plodder/plodder and he is certainly out of an empty mare.

Congratulation to Seth Klarman. He is a brilliant investor and a smart horse buyer.

Let’s try to pick the Derby with a focus on breeding:

1. Messier – There is only one horse in the field that has been bred to win this race since birth. The 3rd dam here was a Canadian champion, and a son on Super Derby winner Seeking the Gold. That champion was bred to AP Indy without racing success, but her daughter, was bred to Canadian Triple Crown winner Smart Strike to create Checkered Past. Checkered Past was a decent stakes winner for her breeder Sam-Son Farm. she was bred to Belmont winner Empire Maker to create Messier. Starlight and others paid $470,000 for him at the FT sale (the median Empire Maker was only $70,000). Messier is the ultimate “plodder/plodder”, but he might have enough natural speed to control the race.
2. Mo Donegal – I consider very carefully investing in the Donegal partnership that owns this horse. I am no fan of Uncle Mo’s trying to win at 1 1/4 miles. There is enough stamina in the 2nd dam (she won the Delaware Handicap at 1 1/4 miles) that MD should be OK at the distance. Not sure if I am cheering for or against. Donegal paid only $250,000 on day 3 at Keeneland
3. Zandon – I have been an Upstart fan from the start. This horse is a great example of the “empty mare” theory. Jeff Drown paid $170,000 on DAY 8 of the Keeneland sale (#hip 2686). His mom was unraced, this is her second foal, and the first foal never raced. Grandma was unplaced and produced only one small winner. This had to be a “great physical” to pay $170,000 for such a poorly bred horse. I am not a fan of Creative Causee as a broodmare sire, this could be horse with distance limitations.
4. Tiz the Bomb – This is a horse bred to run a long distance. The dam placed in the American Oaks at 1 1/4 miles on the turf. She is by Tiznow out of a AP Indy mare. The sire is a grandson of Sadler’s Wells. Kenny McPeek paid $330,000 for a horse by a $5,000 sire. Not sure how he will handle the dirt. Maybe??
5. Charge It – 2nd dam was $2,500,000 winner Take Charge Lady, who was then bred with Indian Charlie to crate the mare. Mandy Pope homebred you kind of have to cheer for even though Pletcher trains.
6. Taiba – Only $140,000 as a yearling, but then $1,700,000 at March Ocala. Mare won $700,000 routing at Thistledown. Very confusing. Originally named Needmore Guns. Only the second foal of the mare
7. Summer is Tomorrow – I have always been a Summer Front fan, and the 3rd dam was stakes winner router for Dinny Phipps. ST was a $14,000 RNA as a yearling at Keeneland, but then sold for for $170,000 as a 2 yr old in France.
8. Classic Causeway – Homebred and one one the last sons of the great Giant’s Causeway. Mom was by Thunder Gulch, and grandma won 20 races at Mountaineer.
9. Pioneer of Medina – Was a $485,000 RNA as a yearling. Always fear the Arabs at this distance. Mare was 2nd in the Black Eyed Susan. Very sneaky.
10. Rich Strike – Do you believe in miracles? A $30,000 claim by Eric Reed by the ultra plodder Keen Ice. The mare is one of the best Manitoba breds of all time. Can you say Mine That Bird?
11. White Abbario – Race Day is a son of Tapit, and the mare is by Into Mischief. Sold for $8,000 as a yearling, and $40,000 as a two year old.
12. Barber Road – Ran for a $30,000 tag as a maiden, two others claimed out of that race. Female family very sprinty.
13. Epicenter – Not really a fan of Not This Time at the distance. Homebred out of a nice stakes winning Candy Ride mare
14. Simplification – Also a son of Not This Time. Mare bought in foal for only $50,000. Mare ran a 90 equibase in allowance races, and was by Candy Ride
15. Cyberknife – A $400,000 Gun Runner from a Canterbury Park stakes mare by Flower Alley.
16. Tawney Port – a $430,000 yearling, mom was a stakes horse from Prairie Meadows
17. Smile Happy – Not a fan of Runhappy at the distance, but the mare is by the great Pleasant Tap. Sold for $185,000 at FT Select.
18. Zozos – Homebred, – not a fan of Munnings or broodmare sire Forestry.
19. Crown Pride – Not sure what to make of the Japanese pedigree. Sire from a Seattle Slew mare. 3rd dam from an Irish sire. Mystery
20. Happy Jack – Calumet could not even sell this son of unpopular Oxbow. Out of a decent Tapit mare. 2nd dam by Alysheba.

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Wow.

Rich Strike was my 10th choice. I doubt very many had him picked higher. I was looking for a Keen Ice for the last two year. The KI’s at the sales were all bred to precocious speed type mares. I never really found one I liked.

I should have been looking at the $30,000 maiden claimers at Churchill. Calumet was not sure what they had, and neither did Joe Sharp. The Smart Strike mare can often at stamina.

I wish I had the patience to look at the claiming races, but I have failed at that effort.

There is a very important conclusion from this exercise. Half the field for this $1,250,000 race comes from a very humble, less than $75,000, background. The other half are fairly expensive, well bred, fillies. You can always dream. Half the field sold at the Keeneland sale

Let’s look the Oaks from a breeding perspective, and make some handicapping calls:

Here is my predicted order of finish:

1. Kathleen O – Let’s cheer for the under-appreciated $10,000 Airdrie sire Upstart to maybe win the Oaks and Derby (Zandon). I love the mare by Blame that was bought by stamina oriented buyer Marc Keller for $200,000, and trained by the low profile Bobby Ribaudo. It is very unusual for Shug to buy a horse an Ocala sale, so let’s call this horse a unicorn, and hope she is a freak. Sold for only $8,000 as a weanling, and then went for $245,000 after working 21.1 at Ocala. I like the fact she did not debut until November. The mare’s first two foals were not runners. Consigned by Niall Brennan, one of my favorites.
2. Nest – She was a $350,000 Eclipse purchase out of book 3 at Keeneland. Curlin out of a low profile AP Indy mare, what could be better? I guess I could have bought part of this one if I had been willing to pay Eclipse’s markup. Consignered by low profile Ashview Farm
3. Hidden Connection – Let’s cheer for a $40,000 Keeneland yearling hip #2104. I am a Connect fan, and what could be more plodding than an unplaced Awesome Again mare. Consigner was volume oriented Machmer Hall. This could be my dream horse.
4. Nostalgic – Never leave out the Godolphin homebreds. Medaglia d’Oro out of a routing Tapit mare should be a solid horse
5. Shahama – She sold 15 minutes before Kathleen O ant the Ocala sale for $425,000. I am no Munnings fan, but the mare is the mom of Looking at Lucky. Should respect.
6. Venti Valentine – Bred by a small partnership, Final Furlong, to a very low profile stallion who stands for $5,000 at Crestwood Farm. Firing Line was the strange horse that Simon Callahan won the Sunland Derby with and then was a close second to American Pharoah at the Derby. The mare was a claimer, but she was by Medaglia d’Oro.
7. Turnerloose – Hip #1787 at Keeneland. The daughter of Nyquist only cost $50,000 from stamina oriented consigner Woodford. Unraced mare by the great AP Indy. Almost a model horse.
8. Candy Raid – Hip #2224 sold for only $35,000 at Keeneland to a small Texas partnership called Don’t Tell My Wife. Never count out the semi-crazy Keith Desormeaux. Consigned by giant sized Denali.
9. Desert Dawn – Always fear the Arizona bred. I have been a small fan of sire Cupid. Solid mare ran slowly at Finger Lakes. Was a $32,000 RNA as a yearling.
10. Secret Oath – Not a fan of sire Arrogate, but the mare was a stakes winning router by Baffert’s favorite broodmare sire Quiet American
11. Echo Zulu – Kind of a cheap $300,000 Gun Runner from book one at Keeneland. Mare produced 7 winners. Almost TGTBT. Pass
12. Cocktail Moments – Sold for $190,000 as a Keeneland yearling and $240,000 at the March Ocala sale. A little TGTBT for a daughter of Uncle Mo. Always fear Kenny McPeek. Consigned by Eddie Woods
13. Goddess of Fire – Homebred from a decent stakes mare using the undervalued sire Mineshaft.
14. Yuugirl – Homebred daughter of a Shackleford, but there is another Medaglia d’Oro mare that ran slowly at Delaware

The next two year old in training sale comes up in 3 weeks.

Let’s take a a more realistic approach to this sale and try to come up with just two horses. I want to find one Kentucky-bred and one NY-bred. Rather than building long lists, I want to deal with the reality of buying just one horse.

With the spirit of Divisidero still in mind, let’s build 2 lists are start doing some research.

Kentucky Breds

1. #1 – Always Dreaming. – with a Kitten’s Joy Mare
2. #11 – Always Dreaming
3. #20 – More Than Ready
4. #24 – Cross Traffic
5. #45 – Good Magic
6. #47 – Tapwrit
7. #50 – Cairo Prince – Tiznow mare
8. #54 – Hard Spun – Broken Vow mare
9. #63 – Twirling Candy
10. #73 – Violence – Quality Road mare
11. #74 – Accelerate – Street Sense + AP Indy
12. #75 – West Coast
13. #86 – Collected – Quality road mare
14. #88 Girvin
15. #90 Mendelssohn
16. #92 Mendelssohn
17. #95 Keen Ice
18. #96 Ransom the Moon – Pleasant Tap mare and June 6 foal
19. #104 – Accelerate – thunder Gulch mare
20. #108 – Union Rags – too much pedigree???
21. #117 – Mendelssohn
22. #123 – Classic Empire
23. #148 – Will Take Charge – interesting
24. #155 – Liam’s Map
25. #179 – Hard Spun
26. #182 – Sharp Azteca – Bernadini mare
27. #194 – Good Samaritan – Bernadini mare
28. #202 – Arch mare – interesting
29. #211 – Blame – too much pedigree
30. #219 – Temple City – why here?
31. #226 – City of Light – BOOM, there she is, my favorite from Keeneland last September (she RNAed for #155,000), she will too expensive unless her work is very slow
32. #234 – Tale of Verve – Street Cry mare
33. #249 – Mendelssohn – family of Quick Tempo
34. #254 – McCraken
35. #255 – Accelerate
36. #277 – Union Rags
37. #280 – Dialed In – Street Cry mare – interesting
38. #284 – Accelerate
39. #285 – Union Rags
40. #301 – Always Dreaming
41. #305 – More Than Ready
42. #337 – Frosted
43. #352 – Collected
44. #354 – Exaggerator
45. #364 – Bolt
46. #389 – Cairo Prince
47. #386 – Mor Spirit
48. #394 – Mendelssohn
49. #400 – Bolt – Dynaformer mare
50. #402 – Tapwrit – interesting – A nick
51. #407 – Blame
52. #409 – Good Magic – Vindication mare
53. #416 – Liam’s Map – saw her at Keeneland
54. #432 – Frosted
55. #435 – Funtastic
56. #439 – Mastery
57. #447 – Union Rags
58. #462 – Cloud Computing
59. #469 – Bee Jersey – Irish mare
60. #477 – Bolt
61. #482 – Tonalist
62. #501 – Union Raga
63. #502 – Blame
64. #534 – Always Dreaming
65. #548 – Exaggerator
66. #566 – Good Magic
67. #569 – Bee Jersey
68. #606 – Honor Code
69. #620 – Wicked Strong – Royal Academy + AP Indy – wow
70. #624 – The Factor
71. #631 – Lemon Drop Kid

New York Breds

1. #18 – Destin
2. #30 – Bolt d’Oro
3. #98 – Destin – might go 3 miles
4. #106 – Mastery
5. #176 – Good Samaritan
6. #186 – Commissioner
7. #266 – Frosted
8. #341 – Unified
9. #389 – Union Rags
10. #390 – Hard Spun
11. #423 – Destin
12. #441 – Cairo Prince
13. #468 – Cloud Computing – Street Cry mare
14. #497 – West Coast – turf?
15. #634 – Oscar Performance

It always good to find an inspiring story.

As I studied hip #834, I found this story about Gunpowder Farms and the discovery of Divisidero:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219049/success-coming-in-bunches-for-gunpowder-farms.

There are several interesting elements to this story:

1. Keithley first invested in a few partnerships before setting out to buy his first yearling.
2. Keithley set out to buy an “unusual horse, not a son of Tapit or Medaglia d’Oro” in his words
3. Keithley trusted a young bloodstock agent with little track record
4. Keithley “paid up” for hip #1398 at Keeneland (Divisidero cost $250,000), but he did have a full brother that was 2nd in a G3
5. Divisidero is a son of Lemon Drop Kid, a late developing stamina oriented broodmare sire
6. Divisidero has plenty of “Euro” pedigree under the 2nd and 3rd dam
7. Divisidero was a May 7th foal and was described as “immature”
8. Divisidero was bought from the relatively small consignment of Hinkle Farms
9. Divisidero was trained by the ultra-patient William Bradley

Tom Keithley, Gunpowder Farms, and Divisidero are my new model.

After attending the Ocala sale, it is time to deconstruct what I just witnessed:

1. I am even more convinced that what I really want to buy is yearlings. What I saw here were plenty of larger, sprint oriented, horses. After the 2020 show, a prominent buyer called Ocala “a quarter horse show”. I certainly agree, but still there are some interesting horses.
2. However, even if only 50 of 1200 horses are interesting, it is still important to attend. It is particularly important to watch horses develop from September to April. So the complex conclusion is — After attending I am much less likely to buy a 2 year old in training, but it is much more likely that I will attend these sales in the future.
3. One well respected consigner gave a very important piece of advice : “know your consigner”. I think this is very important. I will have to spend more time getting to know more about all the “players” in this industry.
4. I know my bias is toward more “slightly built” horses. What I consider “sleek or racy” others consider as too small to withstand training. This will be a continuing battle. When well known consigner Nick de Meric called the $650,000 Bolt d’Oro filly that he sold “a plain Jane looking filly”, it made me realize most buyers must want “monsters” in the mold of Jackie’s Warrior. The push to find horses that will “win at Saratoga or Del Mar” is what the industry wants.
5. Horse’s are expensive. Overall the median price horse of $65,000 is only up from $60,000 in pre-pandemic 2019, but way up from the uncertainty of 2020 and 2021. When inexpensive sire McCracken sells a horse with an average 10.1 work for $170,000 you know prices are pretty hot. Median prices can be misleading because maybe 20% of horses have fairly significant vet issues. To me it felt like average “clean” horses were selling for about $100,000. You can see the quality differences between the $250,000 horse and the $100,000 horse. If you are shopping on a budget you have to be very careful not to be disappointed by accepting the “average” horse.
6. I did learn about the mysterious “outs” that bothered me in previous sales. These are horses that worked, but developed small vet issues after their work. The consigners still want buyers to come look at the horse, and maybe buy it later privately, but have already decided to scratch the horse earlier in the week. The outs can also be horse that gets no vet checks or scopes.
7. After building this list I like the Ocala sale a little better. You can get some interesting pedigrees at good prices if you are willing to accept some slower works.

Now let’s take a more rational approach to this sale and try to come up with a more realistic list. Let’s use $100,000 as the budget, and realize that we might stretch to $120,000 in a rare case, but try to keep the average to $75,000. My focus would have been on the 10.2 and higher works (or 21.2+). Here are my selections in rank order:

1. By a significant margin my favorite horse was hip #751 a son of Funtastic. This was one of my favorites from the Keeneland September sale. Only a semi-crazy person come away from sale of 1200+ horses with their favorite horse being a Funtastic. This is a conventionally bred horse because the mare was a Elusive Quality sprinter. The nick is only a B, but Funtastic is not a typical son of More Than Ready. Remember that Funtastic won a G1 at 1 1/2 miles. A group called Omni Racing paid $120,000. They are only 2 for 41 at Golden Gate, so this will be a good test of the little guy. I was very impressed by the work a consigner Scanlon Training and Sales, they move right to the top of my new list. This was a big strong horse that worked a slow 10.2 because of small foot problem. He is also an April 30 foal.
2. My second favorite comes from my leading sire Oscar Performance. Hip #1210 is an A rated nick of Kitten’s Joy with and Unbridled Song mare (in this case Will Take Charge). Many would consider this guy “too small” to be a good horse, but let’s watch. The buyer for $120,000 was Hooties Racing. The seller was the large operation Niall Brennan Stables, let’s put them on the list. Maybe I am trying to hard to make Oscar performance work, but I am not giving up yet. The work was 10.2, but the rumor was the “gallop out” was well above average.
3. My third favorite is hip #1152, a daughter of Mendelssohn out of a Street Hero mare. She was purchased for $105,000 by an agent Gayle Van Leer from the good folks at Scanlon. The works was a slow 10.2, so maybe this is a fair price for a Mendelssohn. It is interesting to note that Scanlon also sold the $1,300,000 Mendelssohn, and that they also sold 15 of 16 horses (only one RNA, for $200,000 on a Distorted Humor with a 10.0 work)
4. My fourth favorite is a daughter of Oscar Performance. The mare is a daughter of the great Lemon Drop Kid. This is the same nick as Divisidero. The buyer for $120,000 was Taproot Bloodstock from a small consigner Silvestre Chavez. I want to learn more about Taproot. This was hip #834. I thought the pasterns were a little straight for a turf horse, but I hate to rely on my judgement on this trait.
5. Maybe I am trying too hard to make Cairo Prince work, but hip #252 is a colt out a great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway. The nick is A++ and he is an April 28 foal. This was a $90,000 purchase by the same guy who bought the $650,000 Bolt d’Oro. The consigner was Six K’s (they sold 9 of 10). Let’s see if expert advise gives us any advantage. The work was an ok 10.1
6. I still have hope for Summer Front, who had hip #504. The dam is by Medaglia d’Oro and the second dam is the great $2,000,000+ winning Hystericalady. The nick is C+, but that is with War Front. The buyer is Martin Dowell (once got 2nd in the Preakness) for $105,000. The consigner was Davis Breaking and Training. I had a chance to meet them and they seems like trustworthy folks. They are also the parents of Quick Tempo trainer Chris Davis. the work was 10.2 for the 4/2 foal.
7. I did not expect to have a daughter of Fed Biz (hip# 100 in my top 10, but this one comes from a nice Street Cry mare and a top producing AP Indy 2nd dam. The work was a decent 21.2. Peter Miller bought her for $50,000 from the big Wavertree Stables consignment (they sold 40 and only RNAed 6).
8. Let’s try to find our Brooklyn Strong story (a $5,000 Ocala buy in 2020). Hip #131 is a son of Tapwrit, mom was a nice Arch mare, the 2nd dam a top producing Seeking the Gold mare, and the family comes from a top Irish background. This is the ultimate plodder/plodder, and therefore sold for only $20,000 to an owner with only 2 wins. This came from the Brennan consignment and we liked what we saw visually. His name is Heart Boy.
9. This is a classic May foal that still has growing to do. A son of Malibu Moon out of a Tiznow mare. The Brilliant folks loved his stride in the 10.2 work. Hip #1199 sold for $65,000 to Gulfstream trainer Dan Pita. The consigner was well respected Nick deMeric.
10. Hip #929 is a son of Tapwrit out of a Empire Maker mare. The nick is A++. This horse is a cribber. This was a favorite of our consultant. The buyer for $75,000 was Jim DiVito from the consignment of Off the Hook
11. Everything goes better with a Bernardini mare, Hip #18 is a daughter of Always Dreaming. The nick is an A. The work was a slow 21.3, but deLuca Racing paid $80,000 to a small consigner called Potrero. This was the only horse they sold at Ocala. Let’s watch the results from a small consigner
12. To find value at these sales you sometimes have to go to unpopular sires. There are not many more unpopular than Exaggerator. The mare is by Medaglia d’Oro. Team Westview Stables paid $30,00 to consigner Jesse Hoppel (the same guy that sold Brooklyn Strong). This is a stretch, but not completely crazy.
13. Let’s stick with the unpopular sire idea with a daughter of Mastery out of a Pulpit mare. Ruby Racing paid $80,000 to a very small consigner named Wildheart. This was hip #938. The work was 10.2
14. Obscure sires is another method of finding value. Here we turn to the daughter of Bee Jersey. This was a nice looking horse, with a fast work (21.0) by a sire nobody knows. Pat Biancone paid $120,000 to Wavertree. The dam has well above average turf pedigree. This was hip #954.
15. Hip #714 is a prime example of my new strategy. Why did Calumet pay $90,000 for a Dialed In with a slow 10.3 work? This horse has a great pedigree, and was nice looking. The consigner was Niall Brennan. The nick is B+. Maybe this is over doing the strategy, or maybe the work was better than it looked.
16. I did like the Dialed In’s that I saw. Hip #1005 adds a Street Cry mare, and a Euro family. Tampa/Jersey trainer Mike Dini paid $50,000 to consigner Niall Brennan. This an A nick and a 10.2 work. A 5/2 foal and a NY bred.
17. In all honesty I did not like most of the Good Magic’s I saw, but hip #240 was ok. I love the Euro pedigree on the bottom. The nick is a B, and the work was 10.2. Juan Arriagadda paid $42,000 to a small consigner Woodside Ranch.
18. A local handicapping expert picked a Tapiture filly from a Medaglia d Oro mare, hip #791. the 2nd dam was a good runner and great producer. Keith Dickey paid only $30,000 to Grassroots for a 10.1 work. The nick gods rate this only a C.
19. Another handicapper pick was a Frosted colt out a Malibu Moon mare. The 2nd dam was a nice runner and producer. Peter Miller paid $75,000 to Wavertree for a nice 21.0 work. Frosted is a well hated sire. The nick gods give it a D. Can 3×4 to AP indy be that bad? Hip #701.
20. Let’s try a controversial pick from Jorge Navarro’s Sharp Azteca. I love the Pocket Aces yearling by this sire. Let’s choose hip #136 with a high quality Tapit mare. Doug O’Neil paid $60,000 for a 10.2 work.
21. Let’s try one for educational purposes. This daughter of Bolt d’Oro, out of a Scat Daddy mare is a classic TGTBT horse. Bolt’s were selling for big prices. This was a great looking horse with a 10.1 work. The $100,000 that Hunsicker Racing paid seems to low. The small consigner might be a little offbeat to some observers. This is the type of horse I would have picked last year.

At the last minute I decided to attend in person. After seeing the horses in Ocala, I remain committed to the idea of buying yearlings. As I expected, there are not that many two turn horse on the grounds. However, maybe 20% of the horses are worth thinking about.

Lets try to find 4-5 horses from each day of the sale. Rather than hunting for bargains, I am much more willing to “pay up” for what I am looking for. My first impression is that the 9.4, 10.0 and even 10.1 works would be to expensive. On day 1 there were 36 works of 10.1 sold for a median of $150,000. For the 10.2 works, the median was only $40,000, but there were 32 sales and 15 RNA’s. For the 2 furlong works, the sweet spot 21.2 or 21.3

1. c – Mendelssohn – Circle of Rosetti by Bernardini – $150,000, Mike Maker, 4/23 foal, 10.2 work, B nick
2. c – Cairo Prince – Causara by Giant’s Causeway – $90,000, Ben Gase (small 0/2 owner), A++ nick, 10.1 work
3. c – Good Magic – Carleton Grinnell by Royal Academy, $42,000, Juan Arriagada, 4/23 foal, B+ nick, 10.2 work
4. f – Always Dreaming – Urbanini by Bernardini, $80,000, deLuca Racing, 5/4 foal, 21.3 work
5. f – Fed Biz – Ad In by Street Cry, $50,000, Peter Miller, A nick, 21.2 work, 2/28 foal

The more I look at this group, the more I like it. This is not a perfect group of sires, but the broodmare sires are outstanding. Given that prices were strong, this is a reasonable group of horses.

West Point bought 5 horses on the first day. I like the walking video of their Mohayman purchase. Ironhorse bought a $35K Jimmy Creed

Day 2

The focus of the first 3 is on horses that had a really great physical appearance and are by what I will call “acceptable” sires. For the last 2 I liked the pedigrees and the prices are “full” for such slow works. You have to pause and think about this strategy, but I think it might work.

1. c – Jack Milton – Grand Slam Kitten by Kitten’s Joy, $240,000, Hans Mason, 10.0 work
2. f – Free Drop Billy – Heart’s Song by Desert Party, $67,000, Sami and Reggie Racing. 10.1 work
3. f –Pat’schromecompass – California Chrome – Dancing Compass by Orientate, $125,000, Rennie Stable
4. c – Summer Front – In Stitches by Medaglia d’Oro – $105,000, Marshall Dowell, 10.2 work
5. c – Collected – Force of Humor by Distorted Humor, $80,000, Seri Reddy, 21.3 work
6. c – Hard Spun – Critic’s Choice by Smart Strike, $160,000, Jim and Susan Hill

I really wanted to add:

1. f – Mendelssohn – Egg Roll by Kitten’s Joy, $85,000, Chad Schumer agent for ??, 10.1 work

But that would be last year’s strategy, looking for “undervalued” horses. I really liked the looks of this horse, but should I really expect to “steal” a Mendelssohn from this crowd? To me it seems you are just “buying vet issues” when looking for that undervalued horse.

West Point added one more, and Eclipse bought two.

Day 3

This was a day of crazy prices where it was impossible to find value. On a day where a $5,000 sire (McCraken) , with a slow 10.2 work, sells for $175,000, you just have to be amazed. My only guess is that his unpublished gallop out times were very good.

1. c – Funtastic – Mikey Likes It by Elusive Quality – $120,000, Omni Racing, 10.2 work
2. f – Ransom the Moon – Miss Curley d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, $100,000 Blinkers On, 10.1 work
3. f – Cloud Computing – Miss Malibu Style by Malibu Moon, $300,000, Mike Ryan, 10.0 work
4. c – Classic Empire – Pi Bella by Pioneering, $175,000, Steve Young, 10.2

It is time to get “back on the horse” again. I have not spent that much time on the early 2 year olds sales. The more I learn, the less I am interested in these sales.

Now that I have watched some of my yearlings from 2021 develop, I just cannot imagine getting a horse ready for these sales. I will keep watching in the interest of completeness, but I am highly skeptical about finding a horse I want to own at these sales.

Fasig-Tipton – Gulfstream

This sale had a few big prices, but the real story was the high number of RNA’s. I am not sure where these RNA’s will show up next. It was very interesting the top seller for $1,200,000 was a Bolt d’Oro out of a nothing mare.

Let’s keep track of one interesting horse that our friends at West Point bought in partnership with Shug. I am still holding out some hope for West Coast as a sire, and this in not the usual type of horse that West Point buys. The mare was a decent distance horse in a brief career.

1. c – West Coast – Melrose Woods by Broken Vow – $300,000, foaled May 14, B nick

Ocala March

Let’s keep track of 3 groups, expensive, mid-range, and bargain basement:

Expensive:

1. f – Mendelssohn – Honey Trap by Medaglia d’Oro – $400,000, Jonathon Thomas, B nick (well bred, my favorite Mendelssohn)
2. c – Collected – Androeah by Blame – $310,000, West Point, C+ nick (love this mare, and still have hope for the sire)
3. f – Girvin – The Shady Lady by Pioneer ofthe Nile, $240,000, One Up Bloodstock, (big price for this sire, still have some interest)
4. c – Liam’s Map – Star Torina by AP Indy, $150,000, Centennial Farms, May 4 foal, (usually they only buy yearling, work was only 10.3, interesting)

Mid-range:

1. c – More Than Ready – Rockadelic by Bernardini – $100,000, Dare to Dream
2. f – Bolt d’Oro – Miss Centerfold by Tiznow, 4/21 foal, $130,000, Sandin Stable
3. f – Union Rags – Lady Pamela by Tapit, (big second dam), $150,000, Full of Run Racing
4. c – West Coast – Skylar’s Pass by The Factor, $150,000, Peter Miller

Bargain:

1. c – Mastery – Seeking Paradise by Blame, $47,000, Ironhorse, May 4 foal, (not completely giving up on this sire yet)
2. f – Accelerate – Solar Vortex by Orb, $60,000, Bona Venture, 2/19
3. c – Oscar Performance – Strut the Canary, $50,000, Brian Lynch
4. c – Unified – Waltz with Chester by Chester House, $50,000, West Point
5. f – Girvin – Bossy Gal by Pioneer of the Nile, $35,000, Bob Novak
6. f – Funtastic – Funny Film by Congrats, $35,000, Hidden Brook

Texas – April

I am not a fan of this sale after seeing the results from last year. I did attend this year because it is just 10 miles from home, but I was not impressed by what I saw. Maybe I am just a grumpy old man, but this years group looked even more sprint oriented than last year’s group. There were fewer Texas stallions in this group. The room was packed, and the prices seemed fairly high. Let’s keep track of a few just for fun, but these are really two steps below the Ocala horses. The first four picks come from a local handicapping expert, and the final 3 are horses I liked the looks of at the sale

1. Candy Day – Race Day – Trifolium by Candy Ride, $20,000, Cecil Peters
2. Noble Crusader – Noble Mission – Bayou Breeze by AP Indy, $46,000, Justin Evans
3. xxxxx- Palace Malice – Gagaoveryou by Zensantional, $33,000, Brian Lane
4. xxxxx – Malibu Moon – Mystic Miracle by Unbridled Song, $40,000, Jeff Puryear
5. f – xxxxx -Ransom the Moon – Super Freaky by Smart Strike, $60,000, Valene Farms
6. f – xxxxx – Accelerate – Ciao Bella Luna by Tribal Rule, $105,000, Danny Keane
7. f – xxxxx – Exaggerator – Red Moon Girl by Malibu Moon, $39,000 Chris Hartman

One of the big reasons that you invest in yearlings is the potential for the big, “asymmectric”, return. It can be very frustrating to look at a list of 20 yearlings and find only 6 that have won a MSW race. What you have to remember is the chance for the big payoff.

On the eve of the Pegasus races, it is a good chance to review what can happen.

Knicks Go was hip #2106 (book 4 today) at the Keeneland sale in 2107. He sold for $87,000 (well above the median for that day). Only 4 offspring of Paynter sold for more, and 39 sold for less. This is a perfect example of “paying up” for a second tier sire. The mare, Kosmo’s Buddy, won $300,000 in 37 starts, mainly in Maryland bred turf sprints. Her best Equibase fig was 102. Of her first 3 foals only 1 had been a winner of $30,000. The mare’s father was the forgettable Outflanker.

Knicks Go has won $8.7 million dollars and will earn $30,000 a pop at stud. How many investment opportunities provide 100-1 payoffs? Not many.

Colonel Liam was hip #1272 in Keeneland 2018. He sold for just $50,000. Liam’s Map was a very popular sire that year. There were 35 Liam’s Map’s that sold for over $50,000 and only 5 that sold for less. The mare, Amazement, never made it to the race track. Of her first two sons, one had made $70,000. and the other had not raced. Her father was the magical Bernardini, and her grandmother was $1,500,000 earner, Wonder Again.

In many ways this was a perfect “empty mare” selection. The female family (Bernardini and Silver Hawk) is a perfect plodder pedigree. CL was also a late 4/17 foal. No pinhooker in their right mind wanted this horse. This is exactly the type of horse I am looking for at a yearling sale.

You have to “keep your eye on the prize”. In fact, I just might name my first horse Asymmetric.

Damn, my former research client, Seth Klarman, has already used that name. Mr. Klarman is one of the greatest institutional investors in recent memory.

This list has changed quite often over the last two years. This list reflects what I saw at Keeneland with by own eyes

Right now be top 10 sire list is:

1. Oscar Performance – the best cheap turf sire?
2. Cairo Prince – kind of second tier turf sire, with decent dirt ability
3. Mendelssohn – I hope they like the turf
4. Kitten’s Joy – old reliable
5. Bolt d’Oro – a cheaper Medaglia d’Oro?
6. Connect – a cheaper Curlin?
7. Unified – a cheaper Candy Ride?
8. Blame – an unpopular source of stamina
9. Union Rags – a Belmont winner
10. Liam’s Map – maybe cooling off some

My list of sires to at least consider:

1. City of Light – too expensive in 2021, a cheaper Quality Road
2. Street Sense – often too expensive
3. Twirling Candy – fading a little
4. Honor Code – the Honor AP’s will arrive soon
5. Mastery – fading quickly, but Centennial bought one
6. Good Magic – a cheaper Curlin ?
7. West Coast – solid but unexciting
8. The Factor – Donegal bought one
9. Tonalist – fading quickly
10. Classic Empire – disappointing
11. The Factor – Donegal bought one

The new dirty dozen. I would call these third tier sires that none of the cool kids really want to own:

1. Point of Entry – my favorite link to Dynaformer
2. Funtastic – a crazy idea? won at 1 3/8 on turf
3. Midnight Storm – not giving up yet
4. Good Samaritan – could work on turf?
5. Shaman Ghost – shipped to Canada
6. Ransom the Moon – I thought they looked good
7. Girvin – nice looking?
8. Tapwrit – maybe stamina?
9. Astern – maybe routes?
10. Accelerate – consider
11. Midshipman – boring
12. Mineshaft – boring
13. Mr. Speaker – now standing just down the road in Texas

And a final list to at least consider

1. Collected – what to do with Baffert horses?
2. Dialed In – worth considering
3. Gormley – fading
4. Army Mule – maybe, just maybe
5. Maclean’s Music – fading quickly as a router
6. Violence – a little sprinty
7. Quality Road – my favorite $100,000+
8. American Pharoah – maybe just a turf sire?
9. Hard Spun – maybe turf
10. More Than Ready – maybe turf
11. Cloud Computing – just maybe
12. Cupid – ok
13. Upstart – consider
14. American Freedom – maybe just a precocious sprinter
15. Always Dreaming – shaky
16. Frosted – almost done?
17. Flatter – boring
18. Cross Traffic
19. Karakontie
20. Lookin at Lucky

Still not a fan:

1. Into Mischief – too expensive
2. Uncle Mo – too expensive
3. Gun Runner – too expensive
4. Tapit – too expensive
5. Speightstown- sprinty
6. Munnings – sprinty
7. Not this Time – too expensive
8. Nyquist – too expensive
9. Practical Joke – sprinty
10. Runhappy – sprinty
11. Justify – too expensive
12. Candy Ride – too expensive
13. Constitution too hot
14. Curlin – too expensive
15. Medaglia d’Oro – too expensive
16. Distorted Humor – sprinty
17. Goldencents – sprinty
18. Midnight Lute – sprinty
19. Outwork – sprinty
20. Kantharos – sprinty
21. Jimmy Creed – sprinty
22. Street Boss -sprinty
23. Mo Town – sprinty

Now let’s try to look back at the Keeneland sale and find the best horses.

Let’s use this outline:

1. top 10 horses from my top 10 sires
2. backup selection for each of my top 10 sires
3. 18 horses by 2nd tier sires
4. 12 horse from the “dirty dozen sires
5. 10 wildcards from various sires
6. 10 under $50,000 horses

That is a total of 70 horses to focus on.

I would call it a success if 25 won a MSW at a decent track. Only a modest success if 20 win a MSW, and mostly a failure if only 15 win, in the two years after selection.

Let’s use the sire list shown in the next post.

1. f – Best Performer – Oscar Performance – Kinsley by Pulpit – A+ nick, nick of Real Solution, $60,000 by Wayne Sanders, mare won $65,000, 93 routing, 1 winner of 3 foals $65,000, decent 2nd dam by Unbridled Song, hip #2369 – , one start at KEE
2. c – Acquired Class – Cairo Prince – Auntie Sparkles by More Than Ready, A++ nick, $70,000 by SoCal Seven, mare unplaced, 2 foals, 1 foal won $30,000, great family of Idol, 3rd dam by Nureyev, 4/9 foal, hip #1768 – 1 start at SA
3. c – Supernova – Mendelssohn – Our Maria Celeste by Galileo – C+ nick, $150,000 Gargan Racing, mare unraced, 1 foal unraced, great family 2nd dam produced General Quarters, hip #100 – 1 work at SAR
4. f – Princess Buttercups?? – Kitten’s Joy – Bengala by Pivotal – $120,000 by DB Stable, A++ nick, nick of Oscar Performance, 2nd dam a nice Irish bred, hip #1404

These are my top 4 turf horses. They are all great examples of “empty mares”. It is hard to find horses that fit all 10 of my criteria. Each one usually has one part that does not quite “fit”.

If I owned any of these four horses, I would be very satisfied I had executed my strategy.

Now let’s look at dirt horses:

1. f – Queen of Chill – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb – D nick, $130,000 by Blake James, mare unplaced, this is her 2nd foal, first in unraced, 2nd dam won $900,000 and producer 2 winners of $500,000, best looking horse I saw at the sale, hip #2250, 2 bad starts in KY.
2. c – Fridaynightsoldier– Connect – Mining for Mercury by The Factor, B+ nick, $150,000 Flurry Racing, dam unplaced, one foal that has not started, 2nd dam produced G2 routing stakes winner, 5/8 foal, hip #1171, working in Ken.
3. f – Bella Michelle – Unified – Irish Princess by Bernardini, A nick, $105,000 by Mayberry Farm, mare placed, sold for $180,000, 2nd dam ran 91 routing at Calder, everything is better with a Bernardini mare, hip #2351, hip 578 at Ocala April, RNA $145,000, 4 starts at AQU
4. c – St Andres – Blame – Empresse by Empire Maker, A++ nick, $60,000 by Bob Stipa, mare placed, 2 foals, 1 won $140,000, 2nd dam produced Air Force Blue, hip #2692, hip #406 at Ocala April, out, running in PR
5. f – Star of Tomorrow – Union Rags – Chi Omega by Distorted Humor, A nick, $120,000 by Mike Waters, mare unplaced, 2 foals, 1 won $30,000, 2nd dam won $1,000,000 routing, 4/29 foal, hip #2232, one work at OK
6. f – xxxxxxxx – Liam’s Map – Island School by AP Indy, A+ nick, nick of Colonel Liam, $55,000 by Royal Flush Racing, mare 2nd in Gulfstream Oaks, ran a 108, 4 foals, 1 winner of $150,000, 2nd dam by Kingmambo, 5/4 foal, hip #2763, hip #581 at Ocala April, out

These are 10 horses that really fit my strategy. The mares have not thrown any great horses and were all at least bred to be routers. Only one of the nicks was poor, and that was a great looking horse by a new sire. Maybe this group was a little expensive, but I wanted to error on the high side, rather than the cheap side. Most were selling after book 3. A lot of the “cool kids” go home after the first three books.

Now let’s add a backup for each top 10 sire:

1. f – Proud Performer – Oscar Performance – Proud Heroine by Proud Citizen – $45,000 by Kirk Robison. A++ nick, first foal, 3rd dam is dam of Honor AP, very realistic idea, hip #2870, one start at CHU
2. c – Billy’s Got Issues – Cairo Prince – Make Haste by Tiznow – D nick, $110,000 by Oracle Bloodstock, mare unraced, four of five foals have been modest winners, decent 2nd dam and French family, let’s trust Oracle, hip #2398, working at AQU
3. f – Claudette’s Lady – Mendelssohn – Dolce Lemon by Lemon Drop Kid – B+ nick, $130,000 by Gentry Farm, mare won $60,000, she did have one small stakes winner from 2 foals, 2nd dam very good runner and producer, just can’t pass on the LDK mare, hip #2270, working in Florida
4. f – xxxxxxxxx – Kitten’ Joy – Cumbria by Distorted Humor – A nick, $52,000 by DKW Racing, mare ran 83 at 1 1/8 miles and won $54,000, this is her first foal, 2nd dam by Sadler’s Wells produced turf star Maximova, hip #2255, hip #321 Ocala April, worked 10.2, bought for $40,000 by Luis Duco
5. c – Bolt d’Plata – Bolt d’Oro – Hekaayaat by Mr. Greeley, B+ nick, $60,000 by Gatsas Stable, small winning mare, has had one $50,000 winner from 3 foals, lot’s of Euro pedigree under the 2nd dam, hip #2737, working in ny
6. f – The Alys Look – Connect – Foul Play by Harlan’s Holiday, B+ nick $60,000 by Thrash Racing, mare a small winner, this is her 2nd foal, 2nd dam by the great Thunder Gulch, hip #2306, winner at FG
7. f – xxxxxxxx – Unified – Rendition by AP Indy, C nick, Mike Donoto for $70,000, mare has had 4 small winners, hip #2046, bad nick but AP Indy can’t be that bad, 2nd dam Seeking the Gold from a G1 winner, hip #2046
8. f – I’mherefortheparty – Blame – Fashion Brand by Medaglia d’Oro – A nick, $100,000 by Homewrecker Racing, mare placed, this is her first foal, great family Roberto, Summer Squall, and Bernardini, hip #1880, one start in Indy
9. f – Clever Disguise – Union Rags – Multiplayer by Giant’s Causeway, A nick, $50,000 by Eddie Kennally, mare a $90,000 winner and this is her second foal, family includes Dynaformer and Theatrical, hip #2000
10. f – Grapes for Eloise – Liam’s Map – View from the Top by Sky Mesa, A+ nick, $110,000 by Joel Politi, second foal, first won $9,000, family includes Smart Strike and Sky Classic, hip #2160, one start at CD

I am thrilled by the second team. This group is a little cheaper, but still very representative of strong families but unproductive mares.

Sires 11-21

1. c – Solevo – City of Light – Pleasant Mine by Pleasant Tap – B+ nick, $170,000 by PSS Stable, mare won $100,000, this is her second foal, female family includes Pleasant Tap and The Minstrel, 4/30 foal
2. c – Hey Brother – City of Light – Sca Doodle by Scat Daddy – A++ nick, $160,000 by Rockingham Ranch, mare was a stakes winner in Manitoba, her first foals won $50,000
3. f – Bella Stradale – Street Sense – Saratoga Belle by The Factor , A nick, $70,000 by Daytona Stable, hip #2067
4. f – Charisse – Street Sense – Maximova by Danehill Dancer , C nick, $140,000 by William Parsons, dam was a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles, first foal not much, lot of Euro pedigree in the family, NY -bred
5. Candy Zone – Twirling Candy – f – Maui Town by Speightstown – $100,000, Sami Racing, D nick, nice looking horse from the Brilliant short list, hip #727 Ocala April, sold for only $30,000 to Expoline
6. c – Honor Lord – Honor Code – Delicatus by Distorted Humor – B nick, $55,000 by Oracle, dam unraced, first 2 foals small winners, 2nd dam second in the Shuvee, hip #3107
7. f – Cookie Bandit – Honor Code – Raise the Flag by Awesome Again, B+ nick, big 2nd dam, $57,000 Gary Broad, worked at CD
8. f – Wreaking Havoc – Mastery – Keening by Curlin, C nick, $55,000 by Wayne Sanders, dam won $200,000 but first two foals have been bad, nice looking, hip #1943
9. c – Dominari – Mastery colt by a Street Cry mare. I want to try and steal a Mastery. They have not really run so far, and they did not train or sell at the 2 year old sales. This is a value play for under $150,000. The good folks at Centennial called my bluff and bought this one for $190,000
10. c – Steady Scheming – Good Magic – Ancient Goddess by Iffaaj – C nick, $150,000 by Oracle, dam won $130,000, this is her 2nd foal, decent Euro family, hip #1757, working in ny
11. f – Magic Miss – Good Magic – Diplomatic Miss by Violence – C nick, $82,000 by Small Miracle, first foal, 2nd dam won $1,000,000, hip #3109, Brilliant folks liked the physical, #364 Ocala April, worked 10.2, sold for $47,000 to Fontana, MC winner in NY
12. c – Toast to Coast – West Coast – Majestica by Street Sense – $65,000 Willis Horton, A++ nick, mare unraced, first two foals are bad, 2 bad starts in Ken.
13. c – Big Sur – West Coast – Verna Lea by Super Saver, 4/17 foal, $95,000 from Four Star Sales, C nick, 2nd dam by Broad Brush won the Delaware Oaks, part of the Brilliant Racing Partnership, deceased
14. f – xxxxxxxx -Tonalist – Sucat by Medaglia d’Oro, 3/28 foal, $65,000 from Timber Town, B nick, full brother is Circle Back Jack, 3rd in a stake at Keeneland 10/10/2, part of the Brillant Racing Partnership, hip #2957, deceased
15. f – Girl Named Charlie – Maclean’s Music – Dynarama by Dynaformer – A++ nick, $160,000 by Jerry Caroom, mare won $40,000, has one $250,000 winner in 6 tries, hip #2684, 3 starts in CD
16. c – Donegal Factor – The Factor – No Fault by Tiznow – A nick, $105,000 by Donegal, hip #2007, 3 starts in CD
17. f – Influentialous – The Factor – Rightful Time by Bodemeister – A nick, $37,000 by Barberino, hip #2890, nice long looking horse, dam unraced, neither of first two foal has won, 4 starts in NY
18. c – Prix de West – Classic Empire – Morrow by Pivotal, $150,000 Randy Bradshaw, A++ nick, dam unlace, one $40,000 offspring, hip #460

Dirty Dozen Sires:

1. f – Proud Mary – Point of Entry – Absolute Crackers by Giant’s Causeway – D nick, $32,000 by Donato Lanni, mare decent $200,000 winners, but first 4 foals have been bad, hip #3715
2. c – Crypto Man – Funtastic – Mikey Likes It by Elusive Quality – B nick, $62,000 by Scanlon Sales, mare won $100,000, first foals have been bad, great looking horse by an experimental sire, hip #2409, #751 Ocala April, sold for $120,000 to Omni racing, one start in Calf
3. f – xxxxxxx- Midnight Storm – Better Not Blink by Hard Spun, A+ nick, $50,000 by Lindsay Schultz Racing, mare unplaced, first two foals not much, family includes Scat Daddy and Seattle Slew, hip #3043
4. f – Miss Kristy – Good Samaritan – Polly Alexander by Harlan’s Holiday – A nick, $55,000 by George Viries, mare son $60,000, she has produced 10 average winners, good Euro family, lets try one with lots of brothers and sisters, hip #1613, 4 starts in fla
5. f – Ghostly Girl – Shaman Ghost – Lady Dyna by Tapit – D nick, $100,000 by McPeek, mare won $50,000 and first 3 foals are bad, 2nd dam a Dynaformer with big Euro family, hip #2784. 3 starts in CD
6. f – Convidada – Ransom the Moon – Catlanta by Medaglia d’Oro – 4/8, A nick, $35,000 by emerald Pond , mare unraced, three foals have been small winners, I was impressed by this sire even though he was only a sprinter. This was a nice looking 2 turn horse, hip #3071, hip #249 Ocala April, worked 10.3, sold for $23,000 to Puerto Rico
7. c – xxxxxxxx – Girvin -Daring Prospect by Mineshaft, hip #3495, hip #337 Ocala April, out
8. c – Magistrate – Tapwrit – Eccentric Spinster by Distorted Humor, hip #2279, working in NY
9. c – Red Five – Astren – Sibilant by Street Sense , Adelphi, hip #2926, working in KY
10. f – Grand Arrow – Accelerate – Street Surprise by Street Sense, $50,000 Geofrey, no nick rating, mare won $60,000 with two small winning foals, AP Indy 2nd dam, big Euro family, hip #3358, 3 bad starts at gp
11. c – Zibuhar – Midshipmen – Dark Channel by English Channel, hip #3103
12. c – xxxxxxxx – Mineshaft – Wine Glow by Tiznow, hip #3010

Wildcards:

1. c – Philharmonic – Mendelssohn – Practice – by Smart Strike, $140,000 Mossarosa, A+ nick, my favorite from the FTOCT sale, great photo, 2nd dam by Galileo, 5/2, my “perfect” colt, no front on video???, 2 starts
2. f – Le Beau – Mendelssohn – Mortgage the House by Chester House, 5/2 foal. A+ nick, $320,000 – Legion Bloodstock – This was a great looking, sleek horse, so I will forgive then for overpaying a little. hip #461 Saratoga sale, work in fla
3. c – Professor Higgins – Oscar Performance – Noble Ready – c – by More Than Ready – $125,000 Louie Roussel, B nick, 4/14, mare 2nd in a small stake, one start in fla
4. c – xxxxxxxx – Collected by Coronation Street by Street Cry – $200,000, A+ nick, hip #317 Saratoga sale
5. f – Slow Dial – Dialed In – Uchitel by Mineshaft – $200,000 by Repole, dam unraced, dam produced a $700,000 winner, big 2nd dam by Alleged, 5/5 foal, hip 301 Saratoga sale, one bad start in ny
6. c – Baseline Beater – Flatter – Seize the Ring by Tiznow – A++ nick, nick of West Coast, $130,000 by Lothenbach, dam won $11,000, first foal, 2nd dam won $1,000,000, hip #2508, 2 starts
7. c – xxxxxxxx Lookin at Lucky – More Hoping by North Light, C+ nick, $100,000 by Calumet, nice looking but boring, hip #2421, Jerry Romans loved this horse
8. f – xxxxxxxx – Bernardini – Morilles by Montjeu – 5th foal, 3/23, B+ nick, 2019 baby sold for only $3,000, no photo, $99,000
9. c – xxxxxxxx – Ransom the Moon – Kitty Quality by Quality Road, A++ nick, $80,000 Albert Davis, LDK 2nd dam, first foal, Sold for $200,000, Bregman Racing Ocala April
10. f – xxxxxxxx – Creative Cause – Wild Poppy by El Prado, $70,000 by Patterson, hip #3008

Low Price Strategy:

These are less than $55,000:

1. c – Fastbyte – Gigahertz – by Dynaformer – $35,000 KatieRich Farm, 5/3, A nick, nick of Saldler’s Joy, maybe too much pedigree, my favorite from FTOCT, nice photo, 6 works at Kenneland, winner at Indy
2. f – Minari – Oscar Performance – Striking Style – by Smart Strike – $45,000 Jason Hall, C+ nick, mare set NCR at 1 1/4 turf mile at Belmont, 2 decent babies, working at gp
3. c – Graceful Fighter – Mendelssohn – Madame Clouseau by Galileo, $34,000, 3/23, long and racy, one start at WO
4. f – Bad Samaritan – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – $15,000 by Blue Streak – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred
5. c – Remastered -Mastery – Sunrise Glow by Distorted Humor, 2/6 foal, $30,000 from Indian Creek, A nick, 2nd dam solid Empire Maker mare, in Brilliant Racing partnership
6. f – Irish Empress – Classic Empire – Strikealinethruit by Officer, foaled 1/20, bought by private sale from Vinery Sales after FT -Timonium, $15,000, no nick rating, 2nd dam multiple stakes winner long on the grass, NY-bred
7. f – Fly Condor – Army Mule – Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore, C nick, $52,000, by Meah/Lloyd hip #3242, 4 bad starts
8. f – Delphia – Mucho Macho Man – Quality Diamond by Quality Road – B nick, $45,000 by Donato Lanni, mare unraced, three foals with 1 $60,000 winner, hip #2474, 2nd dam by Pleasantly Perfect
9. c – xxxxxxxx – Super Saver – Ponder Lea by More Than Ready – $37,000, 5/19, not a pedigree I love, but a very solid looking horse, maybe a great value
10. f – Arc Light – Sharp Azteca – Sarah Elizibeth by Sky Mesa – D nick, $20,000 by Pocket Aces, first foal of an unraced mare, i just love the picture and the writeup by Pocket Aces, she is tall and long despite the sprinty sire

Horses to watch:

1. f – xxxxxxxxx -Mastery – Taralena by Arch, 2nd foal, 5/3, Candy Meadows, B nick, solid photo and walk, This was an RNA but let’s watch, not really included in the list, best looking horse I saw at Keeneland.
2. f – xxxxxxxx – City of Light – Betty Draper by Street Cry, 3/7, RNA $165,000 from Runnymeade, mom won going 1 1/2 miles, great looking horse, where will this horse show up???, Ocala March, out
3. f – xxxxxxxx – Bolt d’Oro – strong, big shoulder, A++ nick, ok Ghostzapper mare, RNA $115,000 by Denali Stud, bah humbug
4. #277 – Tonalist – 2nd dam by Dynaformer, A++ nick, nick of Country Grammer, $35,000
5. #103 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch – April 1, B nick $32,000 RNA
6. #180 -f – West Coast – Rock and Glory by Rock Hard Ten, A nick, 4/17 foal, private sale of $125,000
7. f – Lady Quinn – Central Banker – Wrigley Ivy by Pleasant Tap – Alfred choice #320, with deep female family that sold for only $23,000, maybe that’s a bargain., 3 starts in NY
8. 4. #2511 – Collected colt from a Lemon Drop Kid mare

Let me try to consolidate all I have learned into the best strategy to employ going forward.

1. I am 90% sure I want to buy yearlings rather than 2 year olds in training. I would rather bring a horse along slowly, rather than rush their training.
2. I am 75% sure I want to pursue a filly rather than a colt. The possible residual value of a filly for breeding purposes seems to reduce the risk of buying a filly.
3. I am 50% sure that I want to try and find a turf horse. Maybe this a poor strategy without going to European sales. There just seems to be a lack of decent turf sires. This could be a difficult strategy to execute, so I will pursue both strategies.
4. I am 95% sure that I want to use the “empty mare” theory. I want to get decent prices by only buying horses where the mare has produced very few successful offspring. This might be controversial. I took me awhile to understand this strategy, but now I am sold.
5. I am 75% sure I want to focus on a horse by one of my top 10 sires. I understand the idea of choosing any sire to get the best “physical”, but the only way to deal with a 5000+ horse sale is to limit what you are looking for.
6. I am 75% sure my main focus will be the price range of $50,000 to $100,000, but I will also consider $100,000 to $150,000, and also under $50,000.
7. I am 60% sure I want to only consider mares that were decent two turn horses, or that at least were bred to go two turns. This is a controversial part of my strategy. It often leads to what Liz Crow calls plodder/plodder horses. My main reason for employing this strategy is to get a good price. Any horse that might be speed/precocious oriented, is a horse where I will have to compete with the pinhookers. Maybe I should pursue more “balanced” horses. The poor performance of my yearlings from the 2020 sale has caused me to waver a little on this strategy.
8. I am 75% sure that I want to pay 3x the stud fee or more for a horse. This might fall to 2x for expensive sires. I want to avoid buying “problem” horses.
9. I am 75% sure I want to buy a horse with a nick rating of at least B. Maybe I should ignore this concept, but again I want to avoid problem horses
10. I am 75% sure I want to shop at the Keeneland September sale, but I want to understand why horses end up in the October FT sale.

The Kentucky Derby trail is still a very cloudy picture. Let’s look at the top horses at the Circa Sports book and see what breeding strategies we can learn from the top horses.

1. Corniche – The BC Juvenile winner is a son of the great Quality Road. He is from a solid mare that won almost $1,000,000, but started by running at Retama Park. The horse was hip #10 at the Keeneland yearling sale, but was a $385,000 RNA from boutique firm Stonehaven. A Texas oilman paid a cool $1,500,000 at the Ocala sale after a 10.0 work (there were 20 works of 9.4). The female family was route oriented including Blushing Groom, Seattle Slew, and Nijinsky. The mare had 4 winners from 5 foals, but none had won more than $100,000. The nick is now rated A++. Will the Derby winner really come from a 2 year old in training sale? Could any smart buyer got him for $400,000 (2.7x the stud fee) as a yearling?
2. Smile Happy – The Kentucky Jockey Club winner is by controversial sire Runhappy. The mare won a $7,500 maiden claimer at Turfway. She was a daughter of the great Pleasant Tap, and was 5×5 to Ribot. She produced 3 winners from 5 foals, none won $100,000 The nick is A++. Kenny McPeek paid $185,000 at the FT Select sale as a yearling for this guy. Can a Runhappy go 1 1/4 miles?
3. Messier – This guy was a $470,000 FT Select yearling purchase by Donato Lanni, Starlight and others. The mare was a small Ontario bred stakes winner by the great Smart Strike for the San-Son Farms folks. The second dam is by AP Indy. The mare’s first two foals did not run. The sire Empire Maker win the Belmont, but had not had that many great horses
4. Rattle N Roll – Ken McPeek paid $210,000 for this son of Connect as hip #1822 at Keeneland September. The mare by Johannsberg won one race going a mile at Parx. The nick is A++
5. Jack Christopher – The son of Munnings was an RNA at a summer sales and then sold for $135,000 at the FT October sale. Liz Crow was the advisor to the group that bought him. The mare was a winless sprinting daughter of sprinter Half Ours. The chance of this horse getting 1 1/4 miles seems remote.
6. Zandon – This guy is an unusual son of Upstart. Owner Jeff Drown paid $170,000 for hip #2686 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. The mare was an unraced daughter of the little known Creative Cause, and the second dam was unplaced. The other foals of the dam never raced. This was a big price for a poorly bred horse. Maybe Chad Brown can work his magic on the horse that nearly won the Remsen.
7. Classic Causeway – One of the last sons of the great Giant’s Causeway, this homebred is from a family owned mare that won a small stake at 7 furlongs. The mare was by the super stamina influence Thunder Gulch.
8. Commandperformance – This son on Union Rags is from a Tapit mare the won once going a mile at Fairgrounds. Only one of her first 3 foals was a winner, and a slow one. Repole and St. Elias paid $220,000 for hip #1569 from the Keeneland yearling sale.
9. Pappacap – This son of Gun Runner is a Rustlewood homebred out of a nice Scat Daddy mare that ran well at 1 1/8 miles.
10. Mo Donegal – This son of Uncle Mo was a $250,000 purchase as hip #903 at the Keeneland September sale. The mare, by Pulpit, won a 7 furlong allowance race at Laurel. The nice folks at Donegal Partners own this horse. I considered investing in this partnership, but I am not an Uncle Mo fan.
11. Wit – He is a son of Practical Joke, from a Medaglia d’Oro mare. Repole paid $575,000 for hip #725 at Keeneland. This mare has produced another G3 winner (Barkley). has not worked since October.
12. Rockefeller – Regally bred son of Medaglia d’Oro and a multiple G1 winner by Speightstown. He was hip #125 at Keeneland. Partially owned by Starlight which paid $750,000.
13. Major General – He is a son of Constitution. He is the first foal of an unraced Uncle Mo mare. The second dam is the great lemon Drop Kid. He was hip #303 at Keeneland and sold for $420,000.
14. Howling Time – A son of hot sire Not This Time from a stamina mare by Arch. The Albaugh’s paid only $200,000 for hip #1635 at Keeneland.
15. HP Moon – A son of Malibu Moon, from a slow running Distorted Humor mare. Sold for $100,000 as a FT yearling, and then RNAed at a training sale for $385,000.
16. Rocket Dawg – Ten Strike and Liz Crowe paid $375,000 at FT Select for this son of Classic Empire. The mare won a Golden Gate allowance race at 1 1/16 miles.
17. Epicenter – The son of Not This Time is from a Candy Ride mare that was an allowance router at Arlington. Only 2 of the mares first 5 foals were winners, and none made more than $40,000. Winchell paid $260,000 for hip #1956 at Keeneland.
18. Cyberknife – Another son of Gun Runner and an stakes winning Flower Alley mare. Cox’s owners paid $400,000 at the FT Select yearling sale.

Is the winner in this group? The other horses are 100-1 at Circa. It is hard to see a superstar in this group. Maybe it is too early to look at this list.

What conclusions can you draw from this analysis?

1. No Into Mischief’s on the list
2. It is a 50-50 mix of expensive horses, and $200,000 horses, no real cheap horses.
3. Only 2 home breds, and everything else through a yearling sale
4. A mix of expensive sires with a few Connect’s and Upstart’s
5. Lot’s of mares with no previous star runners, a strong endorsement of the “empty mare” strategy
6. Lots of mares with routing experience
7. Lots of A nicks

Now that I have finished my list of 200 yearlings, it is time to go back and do some polishing. The goal in these “focus on” posts is to try ranking the horse a little more closely. Obviously this is done with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, but it is still a useful exercise.

What if I had went into 2021 looking exclusively for an offspring of Oscar Performance?

I might very well ended up with hip #2111 from the Keeneland September sale. In the real world this horse was purchased by Agent Jason Hall for $45,000. It is possible this horse will be sold again as a two year old. It appears that Hall is a pinhooker that send his horses to Luis Mendez. This will be an interesting horse to watch. Hall only buys horses where the mare was an actual successful runner.

What did I like about #2111? The clear answer is the mares ability to run successfully at 1 1/4 miles on the turf at Belmont. She ran a 99 Equibase fig, and set a NCR at Belmont for this seldom fun distance. The good news she ran this fast time in a allowance race, yet she never placed in a stakes race. What I learn from this exercise is that “sneaky good” running ability at a distance is a very desirable item. It is also a major positive that the mare sold for $280,000 as a yearling at Keeneland. It is also a major positive that the first foal of the mare has been a solid, but not outstanding performer. Win Worthy sold for $20,000 as a yearling, but $90,000 as a two year old. The second baby by Honor Code sold for $75,000 and is just getting started in Indiana. The 2nd dam was also a runner, finishing second in the G1 Hollywood Starlet in a short career, and is by Rahy. Hip #2111 is also a may 5th foal, which might scare off many pinhookers. The consigner is Lane’s End, which I view as a small positive.

The major negative of hip #2111 is the nick is only a C+. The Kitten’s Joy/Smart Strike cross has been tried many times with only modest success. Smart Strike is the father of Curlin, and the damsire of Mine That Bird and Dullahan. I wish the nick were better, but it is hard to find the perfect horse. You could argue that the the price of $45,000 is a little to low, maybe almost TGTBT. It is still over 3x the current stud fee (OP’s fee was decreased to $12,500 from an initial $20,000). I still think this might be my favorite OP, let’s put her at the top of the list.

If #2111 was my target, but I thought the price was “too low” even TGTBT, what was my second choice? If I had wanted a better nick I would have waited on #2369. This is a daughter of a Pulpit mare, which make this an A++ nick because it is the nick of Kitten’s Joy’s best son Real Solution. In the real world Wayne Sanders paid $60,000 for this horse. He bought a dozen other modest priced horses. The seller was an interesting group called Candy Meadows, which might be a small positive. The 2nd dam was a decent runner and produced a $500,000 winner. I think this is a clear second choice.

The next logical OP was #2870. This horse had one major positive, the third dam, Hollywood Story, was a multiple G1 winner and produced the super horse Honor AP. Most likely this is not a good enough reason to buy a horse, but maybe it should be. #2870 was also a first foal of a slow Proud Citizen mare. This was a high risk choice, but an interesting one. the price was right $45,000.

Another decent idea is #2136. Here the mare is by stamina influence Broken Vow. Even more important is the mare was bred by the great George Stawbridge. Even though the nick is rated D, I would take a chance. The extended family has plenty of Euro members.Neither of the first two babies have raced, so the price is right at $50,000.

Now let’s think about what we could have done with a bigger budget. I think the clear answer here in #1594. This is a colt that the controversial Louie Roussel paid $125,000 for. The damsire is the solid More Than Ready. He can help with some long distance stamina. The nick here is a ok B. The mare ran a solid 2nd in a small turf stake route. The first foal sold for $90,000 as a yearling and $200,000 as a 2 year old. The 2nd dam produced two great turf routers. This is a very sold horse.

Another $100,000 colt worth considering is #2463. The key here an interesting Quality Road mare. The nick with Gone West is rated A. The 2nd dam was a nice French stakes horse. The problem here is the mare finally won a $16,000 maiden claimer. It would be better if she were unraced. Her first bay also quickly became a claimer. This horse points out how running can actually be a negative. The price tag seems a little steep.

The next interesting horse was to wait until #2691. Here the mare was G3 placed and has produced a decent foal. The problem here is the that the Kitten’s Joy/Danehill nick is a poor D. This is a horse worth thinking about. Maybe the nick should be ignored, but when the bidding went to $130,000 here I think I would have passed.

Let’s try one bargain basement horse. Generally I would consider a $10,000 horse as TGTGT, but let’s make one exception. I make this exception because I love Fusaichi Pegasus as a broodmare sire.

The first 8 come from the Keeneland September sale, abd the last two come the Fasig-Tipton October sale. My general conclusion is that it would have been better to strike early rather than wait.

My favorite from the later sale was a $35,000 colt from a Dynaformer mare. I also liked a $30,000 colt from a Street Sense mare purchased by OP former trainer Brian Lynch. Overall these two ideas ranked 5th and 6th in my OP selections.

—————————————————————————————–

I really would have been happy to buy any of these 10 horses. Some OP’s that were excluded did not fit the “empty mare” strategy

—————————————————————————————–

The list in order:

1. Striking Style – f – by Smart Strike – $45,000 Jason Hall, C+ nick, mare set NCR at 1 1/4 turf mile at Belmont, 2 decent babies
2. Best Performer – f – Kinsley – by Pulpit – $60,000 Wayne Sanders, A+ nick, nick of Real Solution, from Candy Meadows
3. Proud Performer – Proud Heroine – f – by Proud Citizen – $45,000 Kirk Robison. A++ nick, 1/15, first foal, 3rd dam is dam of Honor AP, very realistic idea
4. Tide is High – f – by Broken Vow, $50,000 Sterbenz Racing, D nick, stamina oriented mare
5. Gigahertz – c – by Dynaformer – $35,000 KatieRich Farm, 5/3, A nick, nick of Saldler’s Joy, maybe too much pedigree, my favorite from FTOCT, nice photo
6. Naive Enough – c – by Street Sense – $30,000 Brian Lynch trainer of OP, A nick, 2/28, from FTOCT
7. Noble Ready – c – by More Than Ready – $125,000 Louie Roussel, B nick, 4/14, mare 2nd in a small stake
8. Post Script – c – by Quality Road – $100,000 Foglia, A nick, 3/16
9. Royal Salute – Eloquently – c – by Dansili (a euro turf miler), $130,000, D nick, 3/11,
10. Bonita Donita – f – by Fusaichi Pegasus – $10,000 Stud Dozal, B+ nick, 2/24, bargain basement idea

Am I crazy? What is the reason to pick so many horses?

The answer is, I really want to understand the “empty mare” strategy. I realize the strategy I used last year was incorrect.

When people like super bloodstock agent Liz Crow said:

“I only look at the pedigree page to see what I am going to have to pay”

I did not understand this quote for over 2 years.

When I actually met real people trying to buy a yearling for $50,000 to $100,000, I learned it meant only looking at mares that have yet to produce a successful offspring and were not great runners themselves. If your budget is $200,000+ you can afford to look at more “proven” mares.

If you buy a horse in today’s market for $75,000 from an average sire , from a mare that has already had two decent babies, it just might be missing a leg. Combining “value” with successful offspring is asking for a horse with physical problems.

On the other hand if you buy a yearling for $75,000 from an average sire and an “unproven” mare, you are very likely getting “a decent physical”.

The 100 horses in the previous posts all use this “empty mare” strategy.

1. my real horses
2. from the FT Oct sale
3. the best partnership horses

1. f – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred
2. f – Classic Empire – Strikealinethruit by Officer, foaled 1/20, bought by private sale from Vinery Sales after FT -Timonium, $15,000, no nick rating, 2nd dam multiple stakes winner long on the grass, NY-bred

And then roughly 1% of these three bought by Brilliant Racing at the Keeneland sale:

1. c – Mastery – Sunrise Glow by Distorted Humor, 2/6 foal, $30,000 from Indian Creek, A nick, 2nd dam solid Empire Maker mare
2. c – West Coast – Verna Lea by Super Saver, 4/17 foal, $95,000 from Four Star Sales, C nick, 2nd dam by Broad Brush won the Delaware Oaks
3. f – Tonalist – Sucat by Medaglia d’Oro, 3/28 foal, $65,000 from Timber Town, B nick, full brother is Circle Back Jack, 3rd in a stake at Keeneland 10/10/21

Fasig-Tipton October

1. f – Oscar Performance – Gigahertz by Dynaformer, $35,000 KatieRich Farm
2. c – Mendelssohn – Practice – by Smart Strike, $140,000 Mossarosa, A+ nick, my favorite from the FTOCT sale, great photo, 2nd dam by Galileo, 5/2, my “perfect” colt, no front on video???
3. f – Mastery – Taralena by Arch, 2nd foal, 5/3, Candy Meadows, B nick, solid photo and walk, This was an RNA but let’s watch
4. f – Bolt d’Oro – Lethal Hunter by Jade Hunter, $28,000 East Coast
5. f – Mendelssohn – Belle de Nuit by Galileo – $12,000 Thunderbird, 2/6, clearly a TGTBT price, nice video maybe a little thin
6. f – Kitten’s Joy – Isabel’s on It by Dubawi – $110,000 BRS II, A+ nick, big 2nd dam, maybe too much pedigree
7.  f – Bernardini – Morilles by Montjeu – 5th foal, 3/23, B+ nick, 2019 baby sold for only $3,000, no photo, $99,000
8.  f – Connect – Wysteria by Exchange Rate, 4/11, first foal, big shoulder, $125,000
9. c – Funtastic – Peace Opportunity by Point of Entry, C nick, ok photo, $65,000
10. c – Tale of Verve – Soul of Hollywood by Perfect Soul, $40,000 Delvalle

Best partnership horses:

1. c – Collected – Polly Freeze by Super Saver, $200,000 West Point
2. c – Coach Rodgers – Shackleford – Star Silver by Aldebaran, $60,000 West Point
3. c – Coexist – Creative Cause – Play for Gold by Cairo Prince, $150,000 Eclipse
4. c – Wickline – Twirling Candy – Mercurial by Mizzen Mast, $275,000 Starlight, first foal, the perfect “empty mare” selection
5. f – Liam’s Map – Spirit of Shanghai by Shanghai Bobby, $60,000 Liz Crow Partners
6. c – Mineshaft – Velvet Glove by Tale of the Cat, $75,000 Ten Strike
7. f – Tom’s Ready – Astarte by Street Sense, $20,000 Dare to Dream
8. c – Twirling Candy – Saintly Sister by Saint Liam, $210,000 Little Red Feather
9. f – Mendelssohn – Dance with Another by Danehill Dancer, $100,000 Myracehorse.com
10. c – Mshawish – Nimble Foot by Danehill Dancer, $40,000 Pocket Aces
11. c – Empire Maker – Lookout Sister by Giant’s Causeway, $120,000 Ironhorse
12. c – Hard Spun – All Mettle by Touch Gold, $200,000 Bourbon Lane
13. f – Funtastic – Funny Film by Congrats, $20,000 Pewter
14. f – Liam’s Map – Frost Fire by Medaglia d’Oro, $160,000 Slam Dunk
15. c – More Than Ready – Ladies Privilege by Harlan’s Holiday, $135,000 Victory Partners

I want to concentrate of two second year sires.

Unified is a son of Candy Ride, and therefore bring more precocious speed than most of my favorite sires. Yet he is a product of my favorites at Centennial Farms that focus on two turn horse. I saw several nice looking Unified’s at Keeneland this September. Even more importantly he was bred to 144 mares for his third crop. This is a great indication he has produced some good looking horses. He stands for just $10,000.

Connect is a son of Curlin that sold well. His median yearling sold for $30,000 last year, and $40,000 this year. Any son of Curlin should bring stamina to the table, but he also won the Cigar Mile, so he not just a plodder.

1. c – Unified – Minewander by Mineshaft (Gabe ???), $60,000 from Four Star, maybe TGTBT because there is a stakes winning sibling, great walk
2. f – Unified – Irish Princess by Bernardini, 3/16, $105,000 from Four Star, sleek looking, A nick
3. c – Unified – Santina Dond by el Prado, $100,000 Markwell
4. c – Unified – Red Hot tweet by Heatseeker, $72,000 Juliw Davis
5. f – Unified – Rendition by AP Indy, Mike Donoto $70,000
6. c – Unified – Celestial Smile by Tiznow,$52,000 Scherr
7. c – Unified – Quality Play by Elusive Quality. $15,000 Rose Petal
8. f – Unified – Repartee by Distorted Humor, $200,000 White Birch
9. f – Unified – Ravi’s Song by Unbridled Song, $32,000 Sam Aguiar
10. f – Unified – That’s Speightful by Speightstown, $110,000 Six Column
11. f – Connect – Ice Cream Silence by Street Sense, $200,000 Bo Bromagen
12. c – Connect – Mining for Mercury by The Factor $150,000 Flurry Racing
13. f – Connect – Foul Play by Harlan’s Holiday, $60,000 Thrash Racing
14. c – Connect – Princess of China by Unbridled Song, $145,000 Ken McPeek
15. f – Connect – Poly One Flex by Giant’s Causeway, $95,000 Hickman
16. f – Luv and Commitment – Quenby by Ambassador, $65,000 Robison
17. f – Pivosky – Princesse by Sky Mesa, $55,000 Mazoch
18. f – Connect – Acquainted by Paynter, $45,000 Jerry Romans
19. c – Connect – Risky Ride by Candy Ride, 45,000 Kings Equine
20. c – Connect – Prize Catch by AP Indy, $32,000 Oxley

This is the grab bag. These are sires that I want to keep track of, but not focus on.

Interesting to note that Donato Lanni bought a POE, a Temple City, and a Mucho Macho Man. Maybe third tier sires is a good idea for a limited budget. It is good to have a wide variety of sires to choose from.

1. Point of Entry
2. Temple City
3. The Factor
4. Mucho Macho Man
5. Violence
6. Flatter
7. Creative Cause
8. Lookin at Lucky
9. Tonalist
10. Upstart

1. f – Point of Entry – Absolute Crackers by Giant’s Causeway – $32,000 Donato Lanni,
2. c – Point of Entry – Giant’s Success by Giant’s Causeway – $22,000 Wengierski
3. f – Temple City – Here Comes Frock by Artax, $90,000 Donato Lanni,
4. c – He’s Got Swagger – Temple City – Lisa Jean by Proud Citizen, $22,000 Ken McPeek
5. f – The Factor – Rightful Time by Bodemeister – $37,000 Barberino, nice looking long horse
6. c – The Factor – No Fault by Blame – $105,000 Donegal,
7. f – Mucho Macho Man – Quality Diamond by Quality Road, $45,000 Donato Lanni
8. c – Mucho Macho Man – Pilaf by Woodman – $90,000 Martin Racing
9. f – North End Lady – Violence – Turning Tide by Malibu Moon. $140,000 Bertoli
10. f – Violence – High Fashion Diva by Giolamo, $50,000 Viahos
11. c – Flatter – Seize the Ring by Tiznow, $130,000, 2/9, this was a giant horse with a very athletic walk, Can a horse this big stay sound???
12. c – Flatter – Advance Party by Empire Maker, $45,000 Bill Parcells
13. f – Creative Cause – Wild Poppy by El Prado, $70,000 Patterson
14. f – Creative Cause – Eleganter by AP Indy, $22,000 Funky Munky, I love this mare
15. c – Lookin at Lucky – More Hoping by North Light – $120,000, 3/24, the ultimate solid but unexciting looking horse, consigned by a nice family,
16. f – Looking at Lucky – Levetta by Violence, $90,000 Golconda
17. f – Tonalist – Listowel by Mineshaft, $40,000 Azpurea
18. f – Tonalist – Upstage by Curlin, $37,000
19. f – Upstart – Etsu by Smart Strike, $47,000 Mason Springs
20. c – Upstart – Red Hot Tops by Arch, $55,000 Harrington

Any one of these more experienced sires might be a top idea. They are all strong stamina stallions that not that popular with the “cool kids”. Maybe these are a better choice than the first and second years sires.

1. Blame
2. Liam’s Map
3. Union Rags
4. Honor Code
5. Twirling Candy
6. Street Sense

1. Blame – c – Lunar Empress by Malibu Moon, $125,000, B+, nick of Nadal, Dennis O’Neil, 2/8, strong producing 2nd dam, mare ran 100 Equibase sprinting
2. Blame – f – Long Leaf by Proud Citizen, $50,000, B+, 2/28, HTC ??, intereting family 2nd dam successful with Blame
3. Blame – f – Emperesse by Empire Maker, $60,000, Bob Stipa, A++ nick, 2nd dam produced Air Force Blue, from Stone Farm
4. Liam’s Map – f – View From The Top by Sky Mesa, $110,000, Joe Poleti, A+ nick of Colonel Liam
5. Liam’s Map – f – I’m Your Luv by Scat Daddy, $32,000 Travis Murphy, A nick, AP Indy and Roberto in extended family
6. Liam’s Map – f – Island School by AP Indy – $55,000, 5/6, small but nice
7. Clever Disguise – Union Rags – f – Multiplayer by Giant’s Causeway, $50,000, Ed Kennally, A nick, Dynaformer 2nd dam
8. Union Rags – f – Come Follow Me by Eskendereya – $35,000, Four Pillar, A nick,
9. Union Rags – f – Conquest Sweetride by Candy Ride – $50,000, Windlea Farm, A++
10. Twirling Candy – f – Maui Town by Speightstown – $100,000, Sami Racing, D nick, nice looking horse from the Brilliant short list
11. Twirling Candy – f – Lady Micaela by Empire Maker, $50,000 Garcia
12. Twirling Candy – f – Twinkles by Mineshaft, $31,000 Black Stone Farm
13. Honor Code – f – Raise the Flag by Awesome Again, B+ nick, big 2nd dam, $57,000 Gary Broad
14. Honor Code – f – Complicated by Blame, D nick, $40,000, Jim Thompson
15. Honor Code – c – Promenade Star by Haynesfield, $70,000 Jet Horse
16. Street Sense – f – Prettypriceygirl by Scat Daddy, $130,000 Ernie Kuehne, A nick
17. Street Sense – f – Newsreel by AP Indy, $120,000 Humphries, A nick
18. Solevo – Street Sense – f – Marwa by Exceed and Excel, $90,000 Adelphi Partners, A nick
19. Street Sense – f – Saratoga Belle by The Factor, $70,000 Daytona, A++ nick, nice looking horse
20. Street Sense – f – Aurora’s Ride by Medaglia d’Oro, $75,000 CJ Thoroughbreds

Mendelssohn is my choice to focus on because he might be a decent turf sire. He is a son of Scat Daddy, and is 4×5 to the great turf influence Nijinsky. There is also some chance he will not be precocious enough for the US market.

At $35,000, Mendelssohn is a little pricey. His first crop did end with median price of $100,000 and an average of $150,000. Let’s see what we can get in the lower end of the price range:

1. Our Maria Celeste – c – by Galileo – $150,000 Oracle Bloodstock, C+ nick, 2nd dam produced General Quarters, 2/26
2. Sweet to the Beet – f – by Street Hero – $140,000 Bruno de Berdt, B+ nick, sister to a G1 winner, 5/3
3. Dolce Lemone – f – by Lemon Drop Kid – $130,000 Gentry Farm, B+ nick 2/4
4. Strike Red – f – by Smart Strike – $120,000 Gayle Van Leer, A+ nick, 4/25
5. Now Showing – Giant Screen – f – by Candy Ride – $100,000 Hidden Brook, D nick, 3/11
6. Dame Ursula – f – by Elusive Quality – $95,000 Hubbard, 4/4 from Runnymeade, A nick
7. Fancy Point – f – by Point Given – $75,000 Piwonski, 5/4, A++ nick, turf mare
8. Parisian Affair – f – by Mr. Greeley – $75,000 Cutter, B nick, 2/21
9. Leo’s Pegasus – f – by Fusaichi Pegasus – $72,000, A nick, 4/6
10. Crespano – f – by Mineshaft – $60,000 Ike Thrash, B+ nick,5/2
11. Experience – c – by Excellent Art, $45,000 Diamond racing, 5/1
12. Carla’s Song – f – by Unbridled Song, $160,000 Robison, 4/25
13. Szolnok – f – by Elusive Quality – $60,000 Thoro Ventures, 3/10., A nick
14. Adjust – f – by Bodemeister – $80,000 Julie Davis, 5/14, A++ nick,
15. Cana – f – by Fastnet Rock – $100,000 Sequoia Racing, 4/21, Aussie turf breeding
16. Split It – f – by Curlin – $160,000 Donato Lanni, A+ nick, 4/11
17. Tasha’s Moon – c – by Malibu Moon, $230,000 Oracle Bloodstock, 4/9
18. Canaryinacage – c – by Mineshaft $160,000 Chris Clement, family of Quick Tempo, 2/11
19. Chamber Music – c – Dance to the Sea by Gone West, $210,000 DJ Stable
20. Unappeased by Galileo – c – , $110,000 Ken McPeek

Any of these fillies would have been a great way to start a broodmare band. Maybe these prices are a little steep, but if prices come down a little they might be a bargain.

In some ways this is a test of a modestly popular $35,000 sire with some turf breeding, let’s see how it works out. Maybe Mendelssohn will be the broodmare sire of the 2030’s in the same way Bernardini is in the 2020’s.

Cairo Prince is decent turf sire, and there are not many alternatives. I am not thrilled with. this group of mares, but that is often the case with low priced sires. I generally liked the the look of the CP’s I saw in Lexington.

1. Auntie Sparkles – c – by More Than Ready, $75,000 SoCal Seven, 4/9, small but nice looking
2. Absolutely Awesome – f – by Street Cry, $95,000 Maple Lane Farm, 2/15, D nick
3. Conquest Bandido – f – by Into Mischief, $120,000 Dohman, 3/8, A++ nick
4. Make Haste – c – by Tiznow, $110,000 Oracle Bloodstock, D nick
5. With Pleasure – f – by Cape Blanco, $87,000 String Music
6. Nippy – f – by Pulpit, $62,000 HH agent,
7. Pleasant Laughter – f – by Coranado’s Quest, $30,000 Zahler, 5/25
8. Lady Daphne – f – by Harlan’s Holiday, $40,000 David Donk, 3/22
9. Tenggara – f – by Super Saver, $30,000 Avila, 4/3
10. Cairo Moon – Mizzen Moon – f – by Mizzen Mast, $35,000 Ozhan

Bernardini is a son of the great AP Indy. He also has great stats as a broodmare sire.

1. Strut – Race Hunter – f – by Dixie Union, $100,000 Eclipse, C+ nick, 3/26
2. Veela – f – by Bartok – $30,000 Fredricktown, C+ nick, 4/16, West Point bought this mare’s foal last year
3. Siren’s Song – f – by Unbridled Song, $300,000 McElroy, 3/27, let’s watch an expensive one
4. Freedom Ring’s – f – by Proud Citizen, $27,000 Hulse, 4/12
5. Back Road Bellamy by Bellamy Road, $55,000 Thompson

The second year sires I am most excited about are Connect and Unifi. Right now Gun Runner and Practical Joke are too popular. These are the others that I still want to keep an eye on.

Mastery and Classic Empire have been worse than expected given the premium prices last year. Gormley’s sold well at the 2 year old sales, but have yet to produce.

1. Mastery
2. Classic Empire
3. Gormley
4. Midnight Storm
5. Astern
6. American Freedom
7. Cupid
8. Shaman Ghost
9. Klimt
10. Mohaymen

1. f – Mastery – Keening by Curlin, 4/12, C nick, $55,000 from Nursery Place, great looking, but sold too early in the day to get vetted
2. f – Mastery – Cat’s Holiday by Harlan’s Holiday, $40,000 Triad
3. c – Classic Empire – Morrow by Pivotal, $150,000 Randy Bradshaw, A++ nick
4. f – Classic Empire – Greed and Fear by Bob and John, $45,000 Holly Wilson
5. c – Gormley – Lady Solvig by Giant’s Causeway, $27,000 JAL Racing
6. f – Evening Merlot – Gormley – Evening Sun by Dixie Union, Ennis $85,000
7. f – Midnight Storm – Better Not Blink by Hard Spun $50,000 Lindsay Schultz
8. c – Midnight Dreaming – Black Tunic by Stormy Atlantic, $45,000 Ensemble Stable
9. c – Astern – Sibilant by Street Sense, $28,000 Pocket Aces
10. c – Astern – Cocoanut Row by Mineshaft, $40,000 Waters
11. f – American Freedom – Marvelous Spot by Archarcharch, $90,000 Ken McPeek
12. f – American Freedom – Call Me Baba by Into Mischief, $62,000 Forge Ahead
13. c – Cupid – Cappachino Gal by Bluegrass Cat, $40,000 Legacy
14. f – Choo Choo Lady by Giant’s Causeway, $30,000 Imaginary Stable
15. f – Shaman Ghost – Lady Dyna by Tapit, $100,000 McPeek
16. f – Shaman Ghost – One Night by Distorted Humor, $55,000 Camejo
17. c – Klimt – Onebadkitty by Street Cry, $50,000 Gustafson
18. f – Klimt – Sepulveda Pass by Unusual Heat, $30,000 Oracle
19. f – Mohaymen – Zaroof by Street Cry, $90,000 Olde Railroad
20. f – Mohaymen – Queen of Silence by Twirling Candy, $30,000 Korina

1. Bolt d’Oro
2. Funtastic
3. Good Samaritan
4. Girvin
5. West Coast
6. City of Light
7. Good Magic
8. Tapwrit
9. Always Dreaming
10. Collected
11. Accelerate
12. Ransom the Moon
13. Army Mule
14. Cloud Computing
15. Sharp Azteca

1. f – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb, 5/8 foal, $130,000 from Taylor Made, C+ nick, beautiful, sleek, athletic build, my favorite
2. c – Bolt d’Oro – Shine Softly by Aldebaran – 4/30, $90,000 Al Pike
3. c – Funtastic – Mikey Likes It by Elusive Quality, 4/30 foal, $62,000 from Vinery Sales, big and tall horse with athletic walk, another top pick, 
4. f – Funtastic – Dadssilverpitcher by Giant’s Causeway, $17,000 Long Grove
5. f – Miss Kristy – Good Samaritan – Polly Alexander by Foxhound, $55,000 Vires
6. c – Good Samaritan – Calico by Arch, $45,000 AVX
7. f – Abrassive – Girvin – Ten Demerits by Into Mischief, $50,000 Ready Made
8. c – Girvin – Daring Prospect by Mineshaft $70,000 Grand Oak
9. f – West Coast – Tiz the Light by Tiznow, $42,000 Johnathan Dean, A+ nick
10. c – West Coast – Majestica by Street Sense – $65,000 Willis Horton, A++ nick
11. f – City of Light – Betty Draper by Street Cry, 3/7, RNA $165,000 from Runnymeade, mom won going 1 1/2 miles, great looking horse, where will this horse show up???
12. f – City of Light – Sacred Luna by Malibu Moon, $95,000 String Music, 3/2, A++ nick, nick of Bellafina,
13. f – Good Magic – Diplomatic Miss by Violence – $82,000, 3/1
14. c – Good Magic – Ancient Goddess by Iffaaj, $160,000 Oracle Bloodstock, C nick
15. c – Tapwrit – Jazz Tune by Johannesburg, $55,000 Oracle Bloodstock, C nick
16. f – Tapwrit – Adamaris by More Than Ready, $25,000 Black Stone
17. c – Peverel – Always Dreaming – Union flag by Belong to Me, $95,000 Brisset
18. f – Always Dreaming – Thisoleheartofmine by Point of Entry, $35,000 Goldman
19. f – Collected – Chestnut Grove by Street Cry, $115,000 Migliore, A+ nick
20. f – Collected – Kiss Me forever by Broken Vow, $30,000 Black Type Racing, A++ nick, 5/10
21. f – Accelerate – Street Surprise by Street Sense, $50,000 Geofry, no nick rating, AP Indy 2nd dam
22. f – Accelerate – Full Moon Frolic by Vindication, C nick, $160,000 Elusive,
23. f – Ransom the Moon – Catlanta by Medaglia d’Oro – 4/8, A nick, $35,000, I was impressed by this sire even though he was only a sprinter. This was a nice looking 2 turn horse
24. c – Ransom the Moon – Kitty Quality by Quality Road, A++ nick, $80,000 Albert Davis, LDK 2nd dam, first foal
25. c – Army Mule – Delta Sensation by Thunder Gulch – $35,000, 4/17, this has become a trendy sire, this guy looked solid and 2 turn oriented
26. f – Army Mule – Metry Kitten by Kitten’s Joy, $110,000 Woodford, C nick, first foal, 3/4, 2nd dam 2nd in the Florida Oaks
27. f – Cloud Computing – Elbe by Dansill, $130,000, Bentley bloodstock, d nick, great Nureyev 2nd dam
28. f – Passion for Quality – Cloud Computing – Quality Lane by Quality Road, B nick, first foal,$25,000, Cassidy Skinner
29. f – Sharp Azteca – Sarah Elizabeth by Sky Mesa, $20,000 Pocket Aces, I love the photo, 3/29
30. c – Sharp Azteca – Que Chulo by Bernardini – $72.000 Rice Horse, A nick, everything is better with a Bernardini mare

It is time to get organized. The goal of buying a real yearling in 2022, or more likely 2023, is a daunting task. I must begin somewhere. My focus will begin with sires, not because I think that is the most important variable, but only because it is a way to get organized.

In fact, my experience at Keeneland has shown me that I need to open my mind to variety of sires. To find a truly overlooked yearling, you have to be able to accept many different ideas. In fact, I would state that I now have a 20 way tie for first in my ranking or sires.

I have to start somewhere, so let’s go with a first year sire that is controversial at best, and maybe already moving toward oblivion. The real question is should any sane person invest in a US based turf sire. The Euro sires are so much better the US sires are almost non-competitive. That is something to worry about, but I will forge ahead anyways.

Oscar Performance is a cheaper version of Kitten’s Joy. He stands for only $15,000 at the low profile Mill Ridge Farm. OP was precocious enough to win the BC Juvenile Turf, yet his female family (by a Theatrical mare) brings stamina. The best looking horse I saw a Keeneland was hip #2094, a son of Oscar Performance. He was a $16,000 RNA because he had an experimental procedure done on his hock, but was a great physical specimen. I did like the Kitten’s Joy offspring I looked at, which made me more interested in OP. OP yearling brought only a $25,000 median, and a $42,000 average. His third crop will only be 80 foals.

Maybe OP is a stretch, or maybe OP is the best of a bad group of affordable turf sires.

The idea of the “project” posts is to take a broad sample of a sire. Most will be in my price range, but I also want to track some of the more expensive ideas. The main focus will be on affordable, or “empty” mare. The focus will be on decent nicks, but others will be included. The focus will be on horses bought by real owners, but some pinhooks will be listed. The eventual goal is too track 200 yearling in preparation for the 2023 yearling season. This is a large project, but I have to start somewhere.

Oscar Performance ideas:

1. Wild Silk – f – by Street Sense – $180,000 Bo Bromagen, A nick, nick of Roaring Lion, 3/4, great AP Indy 2nd dam, first foal struggling at Delta, 2nd foal unnamed
2. Lovely Island – f – by Arch – $80,000 Madaket, D nick, 4/22, Aloha Kitten already claimer in California
3. Eagle Sound – c- by Fusaichi Pegasus – $140,000 Dale Romans, B+ nick, nick of Divisidero, mare a solid producer, not really empty, 3/8
4. Royal Salute – c – Eloquently by Dansili – $130,000 Raroma Stable, D nick, 3/11, mare graded stakes placed
5. Noble Ready – c – by More Than Ready – $130,000 Louie Roussel, B nick, 4/14, mare 2nd in a small stake
6. Proud Performer – Proud Heroine – f – by Proud Citizen – $45,000 Kirk Robison. A++ nick, 1/15, first foal, 3rd dam is dam of Honor AP, very realistic idea
7. Best Performer – f – Kinsley – by Pulpit – $70,000 Wayne Sanders, A+ nick, nick of Real Solution, from Candy Meadows
8. Striking Style – f – by Smart Strike – $45,000 Jason Hall, C+ nick, mare set NCR at 1 1/4 turf mile at Belmont
9. Infanta Branca – f – by Henrythenavigator – $27,000 Richard Perkins, 4/17
10. Tide is High – f – by Broken Vow, $50,000 Sterbenz Racing, D nick, stamina oriented mare
11. Bonita Donita – f – by Fusaichi Pegasus – $10,000 Stud Dozal, B+ nick, 2/24, bargain basement idea
12. Sparkle Factor – c – by Arch – RNA $16,000 with vet issue, D nick, great looking horse in person, 2nd dam by Pivotal
13. Gigahertz – c – by Dynaformer – $35,000 KatieRich Farm, 5/3, A nick, nick of Saldler’s Joy, maybe too much pedigree, my favorite from FTOCT, nice photo
14. Naive Enough – c – by Street Sense – $30,000 Brian Lynch trainer of OP, A nick, 2/28

This is a nice group of horses. Will OP have any success? We will see.

Just for completeness let’s also think about affordable Kitten’s Joy’s:

1. Bengala – f – by Pivotal – $120,000 by DB Stable, A++ nick, nick of OP
2. Cumbria – f – by Distorted Humor – $52,000 DKW Racing, A nick, 1/30, 2nd dam produced Maximova, from Runnymeade
3. Act Now – c – by Street Sense – $70,000 Madras Bloodstock, A nick, 4/10, first foal
4. Summer Vacation – f – by Eskendereya – $100,000 Medallion, C nick, big 2nd dam, 4/9, very interesing, need to call Medallion
5. Smart Mission – f – by Smart Strike – $32,000 Ryan Zabrowki, maybe TGTBT, C nick. 3/31, bought from Sam-Son
6. Isabel’s on It – f – by Dubawi – $110,000 BRS II, A+ nick, big 2nd dam, maybe too much pedigree

On the eve of the Breeder’s Cup let’s think about Malathaat. She is a beautifully bred daughter of Curlin. The dam is Dreaming of Julia who won the Frizette and Gulfstream Oaks. She was 3rd in the BC Juvenile Fillies and 4th in the Kentucky Oaks. In total she earned almost $900,000 in a 8 race career for Stonestreet and Pletcher.

Dreaming of Julia is a daughter of AP Indy. Her mom, Dream Rush, was a multiple graded stakes winner sired by sprinter Wild Rush.

Curlin/AP Indy is an A nick that has also produced Idol and Global Campaign. Dreaming of Julia’s first foal was never named, and her second foal, Golden Julia by Medaglia d’Oro, was never sold or raced.

The ruler of Dubai paid $1,050,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September yearling sale. A recent article has her yearling picture:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/254596/11-sales-graduates-entered-for-bc-classic-and-distaff

She was a nice looking and long yearling, but she does not have that much definition for a March 9 foal.

Malathaat was the 15th most expensive yearling at that sale. Let’s look at the ones that cost more

1. America’s Joy cost $8,400,000. A daughter of American Pharoah, she is a full sister to Into Mischief, Beholder, and Mendelssohn, but she has never raced. Bought by Whisper Hill Farm
2. Aussie Pride is a $4,100,000 son of Curlin. The first foal out of a champion New Zealand sprinter, she has 4 published works
3. Brother is Arms is a $2,900,000 son of War Front from a Kentucky Oaks winning mare. He was 2nd is a MSW at Tampa in January, but shows no works since
4. Lidstrom is a $2,500,000 son of Tapit from the mom of Nyquist. He was recently 4th in an allowance race at Laurel.
5. Alexander Valley is a $2,150,000 son of Medaglia d’Oro by a multiple graded stakes winning mare. He has run 8 times without breaking his maiden, last was 2nd in a MSW at Ellis.
6. Beatbox is a $2,100,000 son of Piorneerof the Nile by a multiple stakes producing mare. He recently broke his maiden in a slow race at the Meadowlands.
7. Miss Jessica J a $2,000,000 daughter of Empire Maker from a multiple stakes producing dam. She is unraced.
8. Vanishing Point if a $1,500,000 son of Tapit by BC Filly Classic winner Unrivaled Belle. He has won $168,000 in Japan, but has yet to win even an allowance race.
9. Golden Whim is a $1,500,000 son of Medaglia d’Oro by a multiple stakes producing mare. He was 10th in a MSW this January, and is no longer working.
10. American Admiral is $1,500,000 son of American Pharoah from an unplaced French mare. Recently 5th in a MSW at Santa Anita for Tim Yakteen.
11. Pigott is a $1,200,000 son of Curlin, and is a half-brother to Mo Town. He is unraced.
12. Federal Bureau is a $1,200,000 son of Medaglia d’Oro. The first son of a G2 winning mare. He just had his first work yesterday.
13. A La Lucie is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro from a stakes winning mare. She has yet to work.
14. North Pole is a $1,050,000 son of Pioneerof the Nile from a stakes winning mare. Recently 6th in a maiden claimer for Brad Cox.
15. Ghazaaly is $1,050,000 son of Curlin from a winning mare. He won a MSW at Keeneland, but has not worked since July.
16. Malathaat

Panic.

Panic is what happens when you top ideas do not work out and the sale is nearing its end.

Day 1 – #216 – Bolt d’Oro must have had vet problems and sold for only $4,500, then #245 (a Mendelssohn filly) sold for $140,000

Day 2 – #606 – a Mastery filly, was a late withdrawal.

Day 3 – #927 – a Mendelssohn filly, sold for only a $12,000, clearly a TGTBT price

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The plan for day four is:

#1302 – Oscar Performance – c – there is plenty of pedigree in the second dam

#1540 – Bolt d’Oro – f – many of the B d’O’s have been too expensive

#1560 – Good Samaritan – f – is my fallback idea

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Prices stayed high on day 3 with an average around $50,000. A strong Street Sense sold for $925,000. An Empire Maker went for $750,000. A Bolt d’Oro with very little pedigree went for a cool $300,000. He was very good looking:

West Point and Eclipse each bought another $100,000 horse. WP even bought a Super Saver. Crow and McPeek remained active

The reality is that good horse are still selling for at least $100,000, and horses with vet problems are selling for less than $10,000. It is very misleading to say the average is $50,000

Prices were up strong on the 2nd day of the sale. The average grew to almost $50,000 and the median rose to $25,000. That is not good news for bargain hunters.

West Point, Eclipse, and Dare tp Dream each bought a mid-priced horse and an Empire Maker went for $750,000.

My top horse #606 was a late withdrawal. I guess if the horse did not get any vet checks or scopes in the morning, the owner/consigner decided to bail. A year ago this would have made me angry, now I just expect it. I will watch to sell where this horse reappears. The Always Dreaming I was slightly interested in was RNAed for $19,000.

My strategy for day 3 revolve around #927. I would hope to get this Mendelssohn filly for $50,000 to $75,000, but that might be to little in this environment. I still have some day 4 ideas if she is too expensive.

At first I was concerned by this horse’s walking video. Watching more closely it is really the handler that cannot walk in straight line. This is a tall leggy filly that the cool kids just might think is too slight to be a racehorse.

Day one went about as expected. The average came in about $40,000, just about the same as 2019. The median was also similar at $17,000. There were plenty of “problem” horses on sale. Many horses sold for less than 1x the stud fee (an indication of vet problems).

None of the partnerships bought a horse. Liz Crow did grab two for about $100,000 each, and Ken McPeek was active, but everybody else was a no show.

This must have been the case with my favorite #216 that sold for only $4,500. When the bidding starts at $1,000 and starts to go up in $200 increments you know it’s not good and the reserve is very low. Most likely she has already had some type of surgery.

I had the opposite problem with #245. Despite a very empty mare, the bidding went up quickly, and ended at $140,000 . Long time Nick Zito client Monorossa was the winning bidder. He will be a fun horse to watch.

My crazy idea of #389 turned out to just that, a crazy idea. She sold for just $2,200 to an owner called Span Investments that uses Joesph Saffie at Gulfstream. I still like what I see in the video, but the sire is a complete mystery. Let’s watch the $10,000 turf claimers at Gulfstream next year.

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The focus on day 2 will be on #606. This was my favorite the first time through the catalog. I am hoping for a price around $50,000. The video is ok, but not spectacular. This is my kind of horse, the mare ran well at 1 1/2 miles

I guess I have some interest in #538, but I really do not want to get on the Always Dreaming bandwagon. Bodemeister was a failure, why will Always Dreaming succeed?

It is two hours before the October Fasig-Tipton yearling sale. I am excited and confused.

That is bad situation, but not unexpected.

Based just on pedigree I should wait for #606, but the video is just ok, and not great. She would be a good mom for Honor AP. Then #927 also is a solid pedigree choice, looks above average, but can’t walk in a straight line.

I just cannot get past the photo of #216. Maybe I have just identified the tallest and longest filly, and not one that can actually run. I hate the idea of Majesticperfetion as a broodmare sire, but the nick is rated A++ and this horse looks nothing like a sprinter. Should I trust my eye? She should be affordable. She is consigned by an interesting group called Small Batch Sales.

I really want a filly, but I also am in love with the look of #245 a colt. I think Mendelssohn might be undervalued. The 2nd dam won a stake at 1 1/2 miles.

The wild card is #389 is who looks great, but is a daughter of the unknown Canadian sire Not Bourbon.

My brain tells me wait for #606, but my heart tells me to take a chance on #216, #245, or #389.

Let’s get in the spirit and spend some imaginary money. The idea is to spend $1,300,000 on 4 horses just like Centennial did. I will use the same strategy of buying “empty mares”.

I was very impressed by the Bolt d’Oro’s that I saw at the sale. So in the spirit of reckless spending let’s make my top choice hip #713. A potentially crazy old man named Willian Warren bought the horse. Many years ago he paid up for a strange horse named Denis of Cork, who was 3rd in the Derby, and 2nd in the Belmont. The mare was not much of a runner, and her first foal was a disappointment. This must have been a great looking horse, nearly a half million is a lot to pay for a $10,000 sire. Distorted Humor is a tricky broodmare sire, but the nick is rated A.

For my second choice let’s go with the cross of Maxfield (Street Sense by a AP indy mare). This was bought by a pedigree shop called Shepard Equine Advisors. Let’s hope they know what they are doing. The mare did not hit the board until she was 5, and her first foal has not raced.

For my third choice I am going to put up with a C+ nick, and try to combine Mendelssohn with a Galileo mare. The 2nd dam produced the great General Quarters. The smart guys at Oracle Bloodstock bought this one potentially for Danny Gargan. The mare was unraced and her first foal has not raced.

My wild card is son of Oscar Performance. I liked the look of these offspring, but the market did not agree. The best looking horse I saw was an Oscar Performance, but he had vet issues. They looked a lot like Kitten’s Joy, which was not “sprinty” enough for the cool kids. I cannot leave without one. The cagy Louie Roussel III bought this one. The mare here did win over $100,000 and her first foal has not raced.

With my left over money I was still able to afford a son of Collected. These were solid looking horses, and here the broodmare sire is the great Street Cry. The mare was unraced, and none of her first three foals have been successful. Madaket bought this guy with a few others. Maybe Collected is the next good Airdrie sire.

1. #713 – c – Bolt d’Oro – Gentle Humor by Distorted Humor – $475,000, A nick
2. #1156 – c – Sense You Asked – Street Sense – Malibu Model by Malibu Moon, $270,000, A nick
3. #100 – c – Supernova – Mendelssohn – Our Maria Celeste by Galileo – $150,000, C+ nick
4. #1594 – c – Professor Higgins – Oscar Performance – Noble Ready by More Than Ready – $125,000, B nick
5. #317 – c – Collected by Coronation Street by Street Cry – $200,000, A+ nick

This is a very different group of horse from what I selected last year. This is a group from high risk mares that are neither runners or producers. Let’s see if it works.

I am very impressed by the group of horses put together by Centennial Farms at the Keeneland sale. Obviously, they spent a lot of money in a very expensive market. My approval is with the quality of the horses purchased, not the prices they paid.

It is important to note that I now fully understand and endorse the strategy of buying “empty mares”. That is buying horses where the mare was never much of a runner herself, and has not produced any significant offspring. Just six months ago this strategy would have seemed crazy, but now I understand it completely.

When my folks at Brilliant racing went out to find the best $50,000 horse, they immediately rejected any mare that had been a stakes competitor, or had produced a stakes runner. They knew the offspring of a successful mare would be too expensive. Even more importantly, Brilliant Racing believed that if the yearling they were evaluating had fallen into their price range it would most likely be TGTBT (to good to be true).

Please stop and read that paragraph a few times. It takes a while to make sense. I did not understand it for over a year. Let’s try to condense it to one sentence:

If you are trying to buy successful horses with any type of budget constraint:

The best strategy is to select great looking horses where the mare was neither a stakes quality runner, or has produced a stakes quality offspring.

Let’s watch and see exactly how Centennial uses this strategy to buy their horses.

The most expensive horse they bought was a $550,000 son of Violence. The mare, Tia Rafaela, never ran in a race and only sold as a $32,000 two year old in training. She ia a daughter of the great broodmare sire and stamina influence Bernardini. Tia Rafaela has had two babies. One was never even named, and the other was a modestly successful runner named Regal Quality. He was a $200,000 yearling purchase (Quality Road was the sire), but was quickly a $25,000 claimer. He has won $150,000 in 44 career starts. There is plenty of pedigree in the extended family. Tia Rafaela’s half-sister way G2 stakes winner, and the second dam came from an impressive family. The cross of Violence and a Bernardini mare is rated A+ by TrueNicks.

Stop right here and think about this horse because it is a model for this strategy.

Violence is a modestly priced $25,000 sire. The mare never ran and has produced only a $25,000 claimer. How can anyone pay $550,000 for this horse? He had to great looking, or maybe the guy who bid $540,000 is just as crazy.

The second Centennial horse is $370,000 son of stamina sire Blame. The mare, Salsa Diavola, ran two miserable races and never got in the money. Her two previous babies have not yet raced (one sold for $100,000 last year). The mare is almost completely “empty”. On the positive side, this is the cross of Nadal (Blame with a AP indy mare). Is that enough to pay $370,000 for. Blame is only a $20,000 sire. Six months ago I would have called this purchase crazy, now I call it “crafty”.

The third Centennial horse is a $200,000 son of Candy Ride. The dam, Well Lived, never won a race in five tries. She has had three babies, and only one won an allowance race. The mare is a full sister to, Well Armed, a winner of over $5 million. The Candy Ride/Tiznow cross is rated D, but the ability of the full sister is off the charts.

The fourth Centennial horse is a $190,000 son of Mastery. The dam, Spring Street tried four times and never won. She has produced 3 winners, but at minor tracks. The most successful did win the Manitoba Derby, but most of the folks at Keeneland could not find Assiniboia Downs if their life depended on it. Mastery is an out o favor sire that now stands for only $10,000. Although this cross is only rated B, it is the cross of Twirling Candy and Vekoma. Centennial bought a horse last year from the same mare.

Centennial Farms laid out a clear strategy and then executed it. That is not easy to do. This is an impressive group of horses. I really should be an investor. If I were not leaning toward trying to buy my own horse, I would be an investor in this four horse group. Centennial wants $56,000 for a 5% stake. That includes a reasonable estimate of expenses and some “markup”. I am extremely tempted to invest.

I wish I were a little more of a Violence fan, but if the horse were a son of Bernardini out of a Violence mare I would not complain. Candy Ride is not a sire I really love, but how can you argue with a full sister to a $5 million dollar winner as the female side. The Blame and Mastery are perfect choices. I may never see a four horse group I like this much.

Would I really buy one of these horses? They have pedigree characteristics I would love to have in a broodmare. What if they were also really good looking? What if I could get them for $50,000 of less with a clean vet sheet?

In general the average price in this sale was a $40,000 average and a $15,000 median. I am not sure why a horse would go in this sale rather than the Keeneland sale. There are plenty of bad pedigrees in this sale, but there are also some average pedigrees.

Let’s remember that it will take $25,000 – $50,000 in expenses to get any of these horses to the racetrack.

1. #606 – f – Mastery – Taralena by Arch, 2nd foal, 5/3, Candy Meadows, B nick, solid photo and walk, WITHDRAWN
2. #927 – f – Mendelssohn – Belle de Nuit by Galileo, 2nd foal, 2/6, Dixiana Farms, C+ nick, solid photo, walk ???, $12,000
3. #1188 – f – Wicked Strong – Dyna’s Destiny by Dynaformer, 4/8, 10th foal ???, A nick, Four Star, no photo, RNA $24,000
4. #15 – f – Point of Entry by Majestic River by AP Indy, 5th foal, 3/23, dam won the Molly Pitcher, C nick, Terrazas, no photo, $8,000
5. #759 – f – Bernardini – Widget by Street Cry, 4th foal, 4/7. B nick, Brookdale Sales, no photo, $5,000
6. #984 – f – Street Sense – By Golly Miss Molly by Vindication, 7th foal, 4/28, too pricey???, B+ nick, Anderson Farms, Ontario bred, big shoulder, strong, RNA $85,000
7. #1427 – f – Kitten’s Joy – Isabel’s On It by Dubawi – 2nd foal, 5/3, A nick, Denali Stud, ok photo, $110,000
8. #1540 – f – Bolt d’Oro – Lethal Hunter by Jade Hunter, 3/28, B+ nick of Songbird and Violence, ok photo
9. #468 – f – Connect – Somme by Theatrical, 5/8. A++ nick, Royal Oak, 7th foal, no photo, $50,000, CJ Thoroughbreds, could be a bargain
10. #530 – f – West Coast – Sugar and Te by Galileo, 2/29, Trackside Farm, B+ nick, short legged, not exciting photo, $75,000
11. #955 – f – Ransom the Moon – Bloemer Girl by Bertrando, 3rd foal, 3/15, A++ nick, Oklahoma Bred, Ellen Caines, OUT
12. #885 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch, 4/1, B nick, long pasterns, short neck, $47,000
13. #905 – f – Bolt d’Oro – Baroness Amira by Street Cry, A+ nick, 3/15, no photo, $13,000
14. #1272 – f – Cairo Prince – Foxy Medal by Tapit, D nick. 4/15, Warrendale, no photo, $5,000
15. #1352 – f – Good Magic – Heart d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro. 4/4, C+ nick, Indian Creek, first foal, small sprinter,$20,000

Some more speculative ideas:

1. #1321 – f – Lemon Drop Kid – Grace Is Ready by More Than Ready – 2nd foal, 3/18, C nick, no photo, $25,000
2. #880 – f – Mendelssohn – Auction by Mr. Greeley, 4/2, 5th foal, Donegal bought the 2017 foal for $250,000, OUT
3. #1302 – c – Oscar Performance – Gigahertz by Dynaformer, 5/3, 4th foal, 2nd dam by Pivotal, B+ nick, nick of Sadler’s Joy, strong, shorter neck, $35,000
4. #1370 – f – Oscar Performance – Hi Dubai by Rahy, 4/13 11th foal ???, OUT
5. #1189 – f – Not Bourbon by Dyna’s Recoleta by Dynaformer, 2nd foal, 3/13, strong, shorter back, ok photo, $2,200
6. # 429 – f – Classic Empire – Showgirl Form by Dynaformer , 5th foal, 4/8, d nick, small, not exciting, $14,000
7. #978 – f – Point of Entry – Burn Control by Bernstein, first foal, 3/28, no photo, $10,000
8. #97 – f – Bernardini – Morilles by Montjeu – 5th foal, 3/23, B+ nick, 2019 baby sold for only $3,000, no photo, $99,000, hard to buy a cheap Bernardini mare, not a good sign
9. #29 – f – Street Sense – Mary Bernice by Bernardini, 4/24, 4th foal, OUT
10. #909 – f – Bolt d’ Oro. – Bay River by Pioneerof the Nile. first foal, 4/7, above average photo and walk, A++ nick, RNA $8,000
11. #1056 – f – Bolt d’Oro – Claravoyant by Distorted Humor, 2/25, C nick, OUT
12. # 300 – f – Shaman Ghost – Real Point by Point of Entry, 5/4, no photo, $10,000
13. #777 – f – Connect – Wysteria by Exchange Rate, 4/11, first foal, big shoulder, ok, $125,000
14. #945 – f – Army Mule – Bitter Lemon by LDK, 6/3, 9th foal ???, B nick, no photo, $40,000
15. #1331 – f – Twirling Candy – Guiltless by Bernardini – 4th foal, 3/18, OUT
16. #773 – f – Commissioner – Woman Smiling by Mr. Greeley – 5th foal, 2/28, strong, short legged, $23,000
17. #216 – f – Cairo Prince – Perfect Prediction by Majesticperfection – 3rd foal, 4/16, great photo, A++ nick, GREAT PHOTO, Small Batch Sales $4,500
18. #616 – f – Cairo Prince – Tenggara by Super Saver – 2nd foal, 4/3, ok photo, shorter neck, $30,000
19. #799 – f – Cairo Prince – Absolutely Awesome by Street Cry, 2/16, D nick, back at knee??$95,000
20. #505 – f – Noble Mission – Status Pending by Tale of the Cat, 5/3, tall, short leg, ok, $20,000
21. #1246 – f – Tale of Verve – Fire into Ice by Perfect Soul, 5th foal, 5/12, good photo, $27,000
22. #1482 – f – Commissioner – Kilcoole Miss by Pleasantly Perfect, 2nd foal, 4/3, no photo, $6,000
23. #817 – f – Destin – Alexandrite by LDK, 3rd foal, 5/14, no photo, $10,000
24. #1256 – f – Tale of Ekati – Flawless Kid, by LDK, 2nd foal, 5/8, ok photo, $7,000
25. #1340 – f – Mineshaft – Happy choice by Broken Vow, 6th foal, 3/6, no photo, $67,000
26. #1467 – f – Oscar Performance – Junkinthetrunk by Top Account, 4/9, 11th foal ???, no photo, $25,000
27. #565 – f – The Lieutenant – Sweet Catarina by Artie Schiller, 2/17, back at knee??, ok photo, $3,500
28. #1176 – c – Astern – Drama Drama by LDK, 2/5, 2nd foal, long pastern, ok photo, $10,000 RNA
29. #10 – f – Bernardini – Maid on a Mission by Strategic Mission, 4/11, B nick, photo unexciting, very solid miler mare, $31,000, bargain?
30. #1199 – f – Bernardini – Elusive Hope by Elusive Quality, D nick 4/3, no photo, $45,000

Other ideas:

1. #36 – f – Bolt d’Oro – strong, big shoulder, A++ nick, ok Ghostzapper mare, RNA $115,000 by Denali Stud, bah humbug
2. #37 – c – Tiznow, strong, short neck, $100,000
3. #40 – f – Street Sense, stakes winning mare, too expensive, long legs, slight, 4/21, Ont. bred, $75,000, could be a bargain
4. #42 – c – Oscar Performance, very strange mare, decent photo, $2,500 they hate OP
5. #44 – c – Oscar Performance, by mom of #42, D nick, decent photo, $4,000
6. #46 – f – Not This Time, Minn. bred, big offspring, RNA $50,000 Legacy, tough to buy a NTT at a fair price
7. #47 – f – Mastery, 2nd dam produced Monomoy Girl, too much pedigree, $120,000 Liz Crow pays about the right price
8. #48 – f – Girvin, F nick, nice photo, iffy walk, $50,000 nice Runnymeade horse
9. #51 – f – Street Sense, A nick, great family, empty mare, small in photo, RNA $60,000 Taylor Made, would make me mad
10. #54 – f – The Factor, long, slight, C+, Chester House mare, $107,000 wow, Liz Crow pays up
11. #57 – f – Broken Vow, iffy mare, ok photo, RNA $42,000 Mulholland Farm?
12. #59 – c – Nyquist, RNA $95,000, Brookdale no bargains
13. #64 – c – Point of Entry, no photo, RNA $90,000 Bird in Hand, terrible consigner, strong looking
14. #78 – f – Good Samaritan, Indy bred, first foal, giant shoulder, not balanced, $12,000 heavy looking
15. #84 – f – West Coast, 3 x 3 to AP Indy???, $15,000
16. #89 – f – Lord Nelson, strange looking, long legs, Lord Nelson is dead, $35,000
17. #106 – f – Bolt d’Oro, back at the knee??, sleek maybe small, Lonhro???, $60,000 fair price
18. #119 – c – Anchor Down, RNA $14,000
19. #120 – f – Nyquist, short neck, longlegs, too expensive???, $30,000 TGTBT???
20. #128 – c – Oscar Performance, short neck, strong, $30,000 Brian Lynch???
21. #137 – c – Exaggerator, $20,000
22. #138 – f – Unified OUT
23. #139 – f – English Channel, $40,000
24. #147 – f – Mastery, short neck, too much pedigree, 2nd dam ??? $3,000
25. #152 – c – Wicked Strong, $3,000
26. #161 – c – Street Sense, RNA $97,000, Blue Heaven won’t sell
27. #166 – f – Unified, OUT
28. #167 – c – Air Force Blue, $35,000
29. #168 – c – Commissioner – Blonde on Tap mare, strong, short neck, $4,000
30. #171 – f – Honor Code, good offspring, ok photo, $11,000
31. #172 – f – Good Samaritan, no photo, RNA $5,000
32. #175 – f – Army Mule, short back, too sprinty, $35,000
33. #188 – f – Midshipman – Overtly by Street Sense, 2/15, B nick, no photo, $6,000
34. #191 – f – Gormley, PA bred, strange breeding, $6,000
35. #199 – f – Tapwrit, no photo, D nick, $70,000
36. #203 – c – Funtastic – Peace Opportunity by Point of Entry, C nick, ok photo, $65,000 nice
37. #222 – f – Frosted, ok photo, $6,000
38. #233 – c – Shaman Ghost, no photo, $10,000
39. #237 – c – Astern, no photo, $8,000
40. #245 – c – Mendelssohn, WOW PHOTO, A nick, 2nd dam won stake at 1 1/2 miles, $140,000, Mossarosa, too rich fot my taste
41. #253 – f – Honor Code – Princess Bertrando by Bertrando, 3/28, $8,000
42. #254 – c – Cairo Prince, A nick, no photo, $32,000
43. #270 – f – Ransom the Moon, short neck, RNA $27,000
44. #297 – f – Super Saver, strong, bad pasterns, $35,000
45. #328 – f – Wicked Strong, small, short back, $4,000
46. #331 – c – Practical Joke – Riviera Chic by MDO – dam of Brooklyn Strong, OUT
47. #337 – f – Mohayman – lots of AP Indy, nice walk, A nick, RNA $7,000
48. #342 – c – Bernardini, short legs, $7,000
49. #347 – f – Practical Joke, ok balanced, $80,000
50. #389 – c – Not Bourbon, GREAT PHOTO, long, great walk, Sea the Stars mare???, $2,200
51. #397 – c – Always Dreaming, no photo, interesting breeding, $3,000
52. #398 – f – Creative Cause, no photo, $10,000 RNA
53. #414 – f – Good Samaritan – She’s Live by Artie Schiller, no photo, $1,500
54. #456 – f – Good Samaritan, no photo, OUT
55. #460 – c – Point of Entry, short neck, unproductive mare, $5,000
56. #462 – f – Kitten’ Joy, very blocky, Ont. bred, $32,000
57. #478 – c – Mastery, too much pedigree, no photo, $65,000
58. #481 – f – Super Saver, no photo, $40,000
59. #487 – c – Nyquist, Shamardal??, $10,000
60. #500 – f – Lord Nelson, no photo, RNA $39,000
61. #513 – c – Empire Maker, ok photo, Street cry mare, $750,000 WOW
62. #524 – f – Violence – Street Cruzier by Quality Road, no photo, $170,000 RNA Vinery
63. #528 – c – Midshipman, no photo, $65,000
64. #537 – c – Bolt d’Oro, ugly photo, $80.000
65. #538 – f – Always Dreaming, A nick, decent photo, long neck, long pasterns???, not really an Always Dreaming fan, maybe, $19,000 RNA Buckland
66. #539 – f – Kitten’s Joy, too much pedigree??, $100,000
67. #544 – f – Ransom the Moon, too much pedigree??, ok photo, C+ nick, interesting, RNA $29,000 Eaton
68. #567 – f – Bolt d’Oro, D nick, no photo, $200,000
69. #588 – f – Mendelssohn, A nick, ok photo and walk, $60,000
70. #617 – f- Mohaymen – Teryns Song by Artie Schiller, 5/1, A nick, no photo, $10,000
71. #675 – c- Oscar Performance, D nick, strong short, $3,000
72. #688 – f – Collected, too much pedigree, $9,000
73. #691 – f – City of Light, too hot, RNA $24,000
74. #737 – f – Twirling Candy , OUT
75. #747 – f – Astern, no photo, $2,000
76. #774 – c – Shackleford – Wonder Upon a Star by Street Cry, 5/1, too obvious, $18,000
77. #815 – f – Karakontie, ok photo, mare not productive, $12,000
78. #823 – f – Good Magic, strong, but short, $25,000
79. #824 – c – Flintshire, too upright, $9,000
80. #826 – c – American Pharoah, no photo,$70,000
81. #841 – f – English Channel, small, $90,000
82. #848 – f – Good Samaritan, A+ nick, decent photo and walk, maybe, big 2nd dam never produced much, $19,000
83. #854 – c – Blame, poor producing mare, $50,000
84. #865 – f – Good Samaritan, B nick, no photo, $25,000
85. #889 – c – Creative Cause – “Awesome Creation”, $12,000
86. #895 – f – Street Sense, ok photo, too much pedigree, $105,000
87. #896 – c – Hard Spun, $20,000
88. #904 – f – Liam’s Map – Bargain Blitz by Rahy, 5/16, D nick, RNA $37,000
89. #920 – c – Bal a Bali, $26,000
90. #935 – f – Carpe Diem, $19,000
91. #972 – c – City of Light, $180,000
92. #1014 – f – Cairo Prince – Causeway Lady by Giant’s Causeway, 2/17, A nick, no photo, $9,000
93. #1015 – c – Mastery, $20,000
94. #1034 – f – Accelerate, OUT
95. #1050 – c – Mendelssohn, OUT
96. #1057 – c – Bolt d’Oro, no photo, $35,000
97. #1059 – c – Lea, $10,000
98. #1067 – f – Mendelssohn, solid not exciting, $10,000
99. #1100 – c – Accelerate, $21,000
100. #1102 – f – California Chrome, $16,000
101. #1103 – c – Mastery, OUT
102. #1106 – f – Astern, OUT
103. #1120 – f – Creative Cause, $18,000
104. #1121 – f – Tiznow, OUT
105. #1173 – c – Classic Empire, RNA $14,000
106. #1175 – c – Malibu Moon, $8,000
107. #1176 – c – Astern, RNA $10,000
108. #1184 – c – Noble Mission, $5,000
109. #1204 – f – Maclean’s Music, OUT
110. #1215 – f – Carpe Diem, RNA $9,000
111. #1220 – c – The Factor RNA $80,000
112. #1233 – c – Unified, OUT
113. #1245 – c – Army Mule, $105,000
114. #1246 – f – Tale of Verve, decent looking, A nick, sire already done, $27,000
115. #1259 – f – Super Saver, OUT
116. #1275 – f – Bernardini, $37,000
117. #1297 – f – Dramedy, short legged, OK bred, $32,000
118. #1303 – c – Mr Speaker, $37,000
119. #1305 – c – The Factor, RNA $67,000
120. #1306 – c – Frosted, $39,000
121. #1307 – f – Ransom the Moon, no photo, Indy bred, $28,000
122. #1308 – f – Atreides $3,000
123. #1332 – c – Bolt d’Oro, no photo, $230,000
124. #1340 – f – Mineshaft, no photo, $67,000
125. #1360 – c – Creative Cause.$13,000
126. #1366 – f – Frosted, decent photo, D nick,$5,000
127. #1368 – c – Honor Code, $37,000
128. #1425 – c – Karakontie, $9,000
129. #1442 – f – West Coast, no photo, OUT
130. #1468 – f – Frosted, OUT
131. #1499 – c – Bolt d’Oro, tall sleek, RNA 57,000
132. #1503 – f – Mastery, short neck, $10,000
133. #1527 – c – Creative Cause – Leah’s Kitten by Kitten’ Joy
134. #1534 – c – Bolt d’Oro
135. #1539 – f – Carpe Diem
136. #1547 – c – Creative Cause, A nick,
137. #1548 – c – Astern
138. #1573 – f – Mendelssohn, OUT

1. Cairo Prince
2. Honor Code
3. Point of Entry
4. Mastery
5. Oscar Performance
6. Connect – too popular right now
7. Bolt d’Oro – maybe too popular right now
8. Unified
9. Bernardini
10. City of Light – too popular right now
11. Funtastic
12. Mendelssohn
13. Tonalist
14. Dialed In
15. West Coast
16. Midnight Storm
17. Good Magic
18. Astern
19. Ransom the Moon
20. Collected
21. Blame
22. American Freedom
23. Shamen Ghost
24. Girvin
25. Tapwrit
26. Kitten’s Joy – maybe too expensive

Here is what I am looking for in the yearling I would like to buy:

1. My price range is $30,000 to $100,000, but with a partner that might include prices up to roughly $150,000.
2. My preference would strongly lean toward buying a filly that might have residual value as a mare.
3. My preference would be a mare with above average length, or a “two turn look”
4. I now fully endorse the “empty mare” theory. I am looking for a mare that was not much of a runner, and has not produced any really good foals. I am much more willing to buy first foals if everything else looks solid.
5. I am looking for at least above average broodmare sires, but I might stretch this if I like the rest of the pedigree.
6. I am looking for stamina oriented mares, but might make exceptions for certain sires.
7. It would be nice to find a mare that was a good mate for my favorite sire Honor AP
8. I would prefer a late foal (April – June) to scare away the pinhookers.
9. I would prefer a non-precocious mare to scare away the pinhookers.
10. I would prefer a TrueNicks rating of B or better
11. I would prefer to buy from a smaller consigner
12. I would prefer one of my “top 10” sires, but I am now willing to consider a wider range if other factors are positive

Eventually this post will list all the horses that I liked from the Keeneland sale. It will take awhile to build out to at least 20 horses.

These are horses that looked good. In general they had athletic walks.

1. f – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb, 5/8 foal, $130,000 from Taylor Made, C+ nick, beautiful, sleek, athletic build, my favorite
2. c – Funtastic – Mikey Likes It by Elusive Quality, 4/30 foal, $62,000 from Vinery Sales, big and tall horse with athletic walk, another top pick, not sure about sire
3. f – City of Light – Betty Draper by Street Cry, 3/7, RNA $165,000 from Runnymeade, mom won going 1 1/2 miles, great looking horse, where will this horse show up???
4. f – Mastery – Keening by Curlin, 4/12, C nick, $55,000 from Nursery Place, great looking, but sold too early in the day to get vetted
5. c – Unified – Minewander by Mineshaft (Gabe ???), $60,000 from Four Star, maybe TGTBT because there is a stakes winning sibling, great walk
6. f – Unified – Irish Princess by Bernardini, 3/16, $105,000 from Four Star, sleek looking, A nick
7. c – Cairo Prince – Auntie Sparkles by More Than Ready – 4/16, A++ nick, He was so small he was almost a pony, but he had a great fluid walk. This horse required imagination. The pedigree is very interesting. Was really surprised he sold for $75,000. Really thought he would sell for less
8. f – Ransom the Moon – Catlanta by Medaglia d’Oro – 4/8, A nick, $35,000, I was impressed by this sire even though he was only a sprinter. This was a nice looking 2 turn horse
9. f – Oscar Performance – Proud Herione by Proud Citizen – “Proud Performer”, $45,000, a sire that I have some interest in, 3rd dam in 2nd dam of Honor AP, bought by Robison family
10. c – Flatter – Seize the Ring by Tiznow, $130,000, 2/9, this was a giant horse with a very athletic walk, Can a horse this big stay sound???

And let’s add a 2nd group:

1. . c – Super Saver – Ponder Lea by More Than Ready – $37,000, 5/19, not a pedigree I love, but a very solid looking horse, maybe a great value
2. c – Army Mule – Delta Sensation by Thunder Gulch – $35,000, 4/17, this has become a trendy sire, this guy looked solid and 2 turn oriented
3. c – Mendelssohn – Madame Clouseau by Galileo, $34,000, 3/23, long and racy
4. f – Twirling Candy – Maui Town by Speightstown – $100,000, 4/6, strong looking filly with good size for a TC
5. c – Lookin at Lucky – More Hoping by North Light – $120,000, 3/24, the ultimate solid but unexciting looking horse, consigned by a nice family,
6. f – Liam’s Map – Island School by AP Indy – $55,000, 5/6, small but nice
7. f – The Factor – Rightful Time by Bodemeister – $37,000, nice looking long horse
8. f – Cairo Prince – Pleasant Laughter by Coranado’s Quest, 5/25, $30,000
9. f – Good Magic – Diplomatic Miss by Violence – $82,000, 3/1
10. c – Shackleford – Star Silver by Aldebaren – 3/16, $60,000, a big strong horse by a questionable sire, West Point was the buyer
11. f – Street Sense – Saratoga Belle by The Factor, $70,000. 4/16, nice looking, but a little crooked

I have 5% of 2 yearlings purchased by Blue Streak Racing with the help of Oracle Bloodstock and Ray Handel:

1. f – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred
2. f – Classic Empire – Strikealinethruit by Officer, foaled 1/20, bought by private sale from Vinery Sales after FT -Timonium, $15,000, no nick rating, 2nd dam multiple stakes winner long on the grass, NY-bred

And then roughly 1% of these three bought by Brilliant Racing at the Keeneland sale:

1. c – Mastery – Sunrise Glow by Distorted Humor, 2/6 foal, $30,000 from Indian Creek, A nick, 2nd dam solid Empire Maker mare
2. c – West Coast – Verna Lea by Super Saver, 4/17 foal, $95,000 from Four Star Sales, C nick, 2nd dam by Broad Brush won the Delaware Oaks
3. f – Tonalist – Sucat by Medaglia d’Oro, 3/28 foal, $65,000 from Timber Town, B nick, full brother is Circle Back Jack, 3rd in a stake at Keeneland 10/10/21

It will be fun to watch these 5 grow up. The price was right on the two NY-breds. The Brilliant horses were all had great walks and calm personalities.

I had the unique experience of walking around with Brandon and Natalie from Brilliant Racing for 7 days at the Keeneland yearling sale. I learned so much it will be difficult to write it all down. Right now I am going to focus on the upcoming yearling sale on October 25-28, called Fasig-Tipton October. Over 1500 yearlings are in the catalog.

I will eventually try to write about my experiences, but for now my concentration will be on the upcoming sale.

My emphasis going forward will be to buy my own yearling for $30,000 to $100,000. I hope I can find the right partners, but I will go at it alone if necessary.

For right now I will most likely end any new small partnership investing. I will still watch the partnerships to understand what they are buying.

Right now the global economic situation is too perilous to be buying horses. However, I need to watch these sales very carefully if I intend to invest over the next few years. The stakes have been raised. My experience last month in Lexington left me convinced there are bargain horses available at these sales. There is plenty of work to be done.

I will use this one post to keep track of my favorite ideas as the sale goes along. These are ranked from top to bottom.

1. #550 – c – Mastery – Spring Street by Street Cry – B nick, 3/17 foal, $190,000 – The good folks at Centennial Farms bought one of my “challenge idea”. I give them great credit for investing in a less popular sire.
2. #100 – c – Mendelssohn – Our Maria Celeste by Galileo, 2/26 foal, A nick, $150,000, Oracle Bloodstock for Dan Gargan, 2nd dam produced General Quarters. The Mendelssohn prices picked up on day 3, this was a value.
3. #586 – c – Street Sense – Urban Hill by Galileo – A+ nick, 5/13 foal, Boomer Bloodstock, $200,000. Not sure about the buyer, but they got a great 2 turn horse.
4. #460 – c – Classic Empire – Morrow by Pivotal – A++ nick, 3/2 foal, Randy Bradshaw, $150,000 – Great price on a tough day. The guy at Eclipse raves about Pivotal as a broodmare sire.
5. #461 – f – Mendelssohn – Mortgage the House by Chester House, 5/2 foal. A+ nick, $320,000 – Legion Bloodstock – This was a great looking, sleek horse, so I will forgive then for overpaying a little.
6. #317 – c – Collected – Coronation Street by Street Cry, 4/15 foal, A+ nick, $200,000 – Whitehorse and Madaket.
7. #651 – f – American Pharoah – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – 4/28 foal, A+ nick, $50,000 – Cove Bloodstock – I know this a TGTBT price, but I want to watch this one.
8. #608 – c – Lemon Drop Kid – Alluvial Gold by Danehill Dancer – Legacy Bloodstock – $120,000 – One last chance with my favorite LDK. Mare has produced a G1 winner in France.
9. #498 – c – Mastery – Promise Me More by More Than Ready – 3/19 foal, A nick, $95,000 – Finally Liz Crow buys a horse I like at a price I like, let’s watch.
10. #55 Violence – Marion Ravenwood by AP Indy – $275,000, Steve Young – This is my last try with Violence. This is the dam of stamina specialist Idol. maybe a Day 1 value special.

The cool kids opened their wallets and started spending. The median price jumped to $400,000 on the second day. The two day median settled at $350,000 about as expected, but the bargains were on day 1.

I thought the horse of the day was:

#317 – c – Collected – Coronation Street by Street Cry, 4/15 foal, A+ nick, $200,000 – Whitehorse and Madaket

I am sure the cool kids loved their Curlin’s and Into Mischief’s, but I like the creativity of buying a Collected on Day 2

Starlight bought 2, West Point bought 2, and Eclipse just one. MyRacehorse.com has been noticeable in their absence.

The winners were those that bought yesterday.

Horse sales are opaque. That is a fancy word for cloudy or not transparent.

There were several strange RNA’s yesterday. What is even more strange is that these horses are not being re-offered at the end of day 2 under a new rule at this year’s sale.

I understand that the consigner pays 2.5% to Keeneland for the final hammer price of any RNA.

Here are a few that I did not understand:

1. #25 Quality Road – Justshistledixie – $1,900,000 – Clearsky Farm
2. #125 American Pharoah – Rigged Smart – $725,000 – Taylor Made
3. #20 West Coast – Joannie – $385,000 – Mill Ridge
4. #55 Violence – Marion Ravenwood – $290,000 – Ashview
5. #57 Connect – Mary’s Follies – $425,000 – Taylor Made
6. #143 Tapwrit – Sheza Smoke Show – $685,000 – Gainsway

My best guess is that the breeders have a private buyer lined up that is willing to pay the auction price. Maybe the owners just want to race these horses. It is too late to put them in the Timonium yearling sale. I guess they can try to sell them as 2 year olds at the training sales.

It was fun to walk around the barns in the morning and watch the cool kids look at their $500,000 potential purchases. It is something every racing fan should do once.

Bidding was actually a little below my expectations. Mean and average were pretty close to last year. The results could be skewed because there is a new rule is place. Any horse that RNA’s the first day will be re-auctioned at the end of the 2nd day. There were several big dollar RNA’s. The Violence, Connect and Tapwrit that I like all RNAed for $350,000+. Justify seemed to be the big winner.

West Point bought two, and Eclipse got one. None of the three were that exciting or creative. Starlight bought five expensive horses, including an ok Street Sense. The other partnerships were quiet.

I will declare the winner of the day to be Oracle Bloodstock for Danny Gargan. They took advantage of Mendelssohn’s unpopularity to buy:

#100 – c – Mendelssohn – Our Maria Celeste by Galileo – $150,000

What a great buy to get Galileo as the broodmare sire for that price. The 2nd dam produced million dollar winner General Quarters and a horse that won $2 million in Japan. This horse is almost a model “empty” mare. The strategy I now favor.

Maybe the Mendelssohn’s look a little small and sleek compared to 30 barrel chested War Front’s and Quality Road’s that got dragged through the ring today.

Let’s give honorable mention to DJ Stables and Steve Young for buying:

#153 – American Pharoah – Smooth Performer – $150,000

#109 – Street Sense – Pioneerof the Nile mare – $280,000

Let’s give “most likely to win the Derby” to Mr. Magnier for paying $950,000 for:

#64- c – Quality Road – Milam by Street Sense – $950,000 (the 2nd dam produced rushing Fall)

How do you buy a $100,000 yearling at the Keeneland sale?

Let’s try to figure out where to start. My best guess is session 5. Maybe you could find a value in session 4, but the odds are against it. There will actually be a dark day between session 4 and 5 this year. Let’s hope the “cool kids” go home.

Last year session 5 had a median of $80,000 and an average of $100,000. About 50% of the horses got sold.

In session 4 last year the median was $130,000 and the average $172,000.

In session 6 last year the median was $50,000 and the average $75,000

It is a little hard to compare the 2019 results because session started at hip #935, this year the first hip is #1098. In 2019 the median was $160,000 and the average was $190,000.

Let’s make a prediction that for 2021 the session 5 median will be up 25% to $100,000 and the average will be $125,000

Session 5 is still a “mish mash”. The are $150,000 Quality Roads mixed in with $10,000 American Freedom’s, but in general there are plenty of $30,000 -$40,000 sires. Which means on average, the median horse will sell for 2-3x the stud fee.

Let’s take a journey through session 5

The first hip is #1098, but our first stop is #1117, a colt by Quality Road out of mare Kauai Katie. KK was a great runner, she won $700,000 including three Grade 3 races, including the Matron at 2 years old. The mare is daughter of Malibu Moon. The cross is rated B at True Nicks. The 2nd dam and extended family are average. The problem is her first four foals have been winless. What do you do? What will this guy sell for? Will it be $100,000 or $300,000? Not an easy call.

Now let’s stop a hip #1155. This son of $60,000 Street Sense is out of a Majestic Warrior mare that won first time out in a turf route at Saratoga. She was 5th in the Jessameine, but got hurt before she ever won an allowance race. She has produced one foal which has not yet run. This is the cross of Maxfield rated A. To me, this horse has to sell for $200,000+, if the bidding stops at $100,000, I would really be concerned that price is TGTBT.

Going to hip #1171 a colt by Culin’s son Connect ($15,000). The dam by The Factor was unplaced in one start, and her first foal has not yet raced. The nick is B+. The second dam produced Fair Ground Oaks winner Real Cozzy. Maybe this guy will get $75,000, but he is in the same sale as the two above.

What you rather have the Quality Road for $200,000 the Street Sense for $200,000, or the connect for $75,000. The answer is not obvious.

I need to apologize to all those I have accused of buying “empty mares”. I have been critical of Starlight and others as they pay relatively high prices for horses where the mare never ran an good race or never produced a decent foal. I was wrong to be critical of this strategy. It is now in fact the strategy I prefer.

This is complicated, and it took a while for me to understand. It is interesting how thinking about spending your own money crystallizes your strategy.

When you first approach the terrifying idea of buying a horse that has never had a saddle on here is what you think:

Let’s find a decent sire and then find a mare that run some decent races, and has hopefully produced some decent offspring. It would would be even better if they did both. Let’s find a mare that was a runner and a producer.

That sounds very logical. But unfortunately, it is most likely the wrong strategy. You have to pay “too much” for these obvious horses. The better strategy is to buy horses where the mare was not much of a runner and not produced any great runners. In fact it is better if they do neither. At first this seems stupid, but it is actually very smart.

Let’s consider a very important example. Just a month ago I was critical of Centennial Farm buying hip #97 at the Saratoga 2021 select sale.

Click to access 97.pdf

They paid $250,000 for a Street Sense filly. The stud fee is $60,000. The mare was unraced and her two previous foals have earned less than $100,000. How could they pay so much for such a miserable mare?

One month ago I thought this was a terrible purchase. Now it is one of my favorites.

Please take a moment to stare at that pedigree and think about it. Then also consider the following example:

A Horse to Think About

Hip #486 in the upcoming Keeneland sale:

The colt is a son of the $30,000 sire Kantharos. The mare (a daughter of the marginal sire Kwafain) earned a respectable $102,000 but her 4th foal is the great Gamine.

How much should you pay for this horse?

If you pay only $300,000 you should really be worried the price is TGTBT (to good to be true)

If you pay $900,000, well then you just paid nearly $1 million for a son of Kantharos out of a lousy Kwafain mare.

It seems the best policy is to avoid buying horses where the mare has previously produced a nice offspring.

Instead, concentrate on buying horses where the mare was neither a great runner or producer, like the Street Sense example above.

As I make my drive to the Keeneland yearling sale, I am stopping at the glamorous Southland dog track in West Memphis, to watch Quick Tempo run at Monmouth. They have free Wifi so let’s write down a few thoughts.

In all honesty I am not that excited about buying yearlings this year. I have a strong feeling that economic problems are around the next corner. Economic forecasters never do a good job of measuring small business. They completely missed the success of Reganomics in the 1980’s, because they missed the strength of small business. Now they are making the same mistake in reverse. The climate for small business has never been worse. I see a serious recession that starts in the 2nd quarter of next year. September 2022 will be a better time to buy horses. I will go to the sale to learn as much as I can, but I do not plan to make a large partnership purchase this year, but I will be watching with interest.

Unless, one of this big partnerships buys one of the following horses I like at a reasonable price:

1. #1408 – City of Light filly from a Street Sense mare.  Mare ran her best race at 1 1/2 miles on the turf. 2nd dam was a solid producer. i like the Runnymeme Farm folks. B rating from True Nicks. This is the ultimate anti-pinhooker horse. I might be willing to pay $120,000. There are plenty of City of Light’s to choose from, maybe this girl could be a value.

This was a great looking horse, by far my favorite at the sale. She RNAed for $160,000. Let’s see if she shows up in the training sales. Maybe they figured the City of Lights were so popular they would just wait.

2. #2067 – Street Sense filly from a The Factor mare.  2nd dam produced some nice horses. A++ cross by True Nicks. I am developing a Street Sense fetish. The more I look at Maxfield, the more I want a horse that looks like that. Willing to go $120,000.

This horse was great looking, but was very small. I was surprise she sold for $70,000. She will be interesting to watch.

3. #1925 – Connect filly from a Street Sense mare. Mare ran well on turf and dirt and has produced a decent runner. You can see the pattern here, trying to get Street Sense at a discount. Willing to go $120,000.

Sold for a very full price of $200,000, the top Connect at the sale.

4. #2511 – Collected colt from a Lemon Drop Kid mare. 2nd dam was a solid producer. Cross rated A++ by True Nicks. Collected might be an underrated first year sire. LDK is another plodder favorite. Only willing to pay $80,000 here.

RNAed for $49,000. This would have been a great buy for $50,000

5. #2517 – Bernardini filly from an Unbridled Song mare . 2nd dam was a solid runner and producer. A++ nick. From the good folks at Sam-Son. The world is a good place with more Bernardini mares. Willing to go $80,000

Sold for a very big $300,000, which is a top price for a book 4 horse.

To me these are the horses pinhookers shy away from, and give “value investors” a shot at finding something nice.

Will any of the partnerships call my bluff? I doubt it, but it is not impossible.

To make this challenge fair I really should include a few more expensive horses.

1. #1163 – Street Sense filly out of Australian super sire Exceed and Excel. Nick is A+. Again from the good folks at Runnymede. Willing to go $200,000 here. A new partnership group called Adelphi paid a very fair $90,000
2. #920 – Street Sense filly out of Bernardini mare. Nick is only B, but still willing to go $200,000. . Tracy Farmer paid $360,000
3. #1768 – Cairo Prince colt out of a More Than Ready mare. This is my favorite CP in the sale. Strong 2nd dam. Willing to go $150,000. sold for $70,000
4. #461 – Mendelssohn filly out of a Chester House mare. This is one of my favorite broodmare sires. The nick is A++. The Mendelssohn’s did not sell well in Saratoga, maybe we can get a bargain here. Willing to go $150,000. Sold for $320,000
5. #550 – Mastery colt by a Street Cry mare. I want to try and steal a Mastery. They have not really run so far, and they did not train or sell at the 2 year old sales. This is a value play for under $150,000. The good folks at Centennial called my bluff and bought this one for $190,000
6. #55 – Violence colt out of an AP Indy mare. Just for fun let’s watch one on the first night. This mare produced slow developing Idol. Maybe the cool kids will be bored. willing to go $300,000 or more than 10x the stud fee. Sold for $275,000

There are more like the horses the “big guys” buy, so let’s make the challenge a real challenge

1. Quick Tempo – will run in a 5 furlong dirt sprint at Mommouth on Saturday. let’s see how he recovers from the flop at Del Mar. He has been working well. Sophie Doyle will ride.
2. Blonde on Tap – still recovering from her leg issues, and looking for a race in the Midwest.
3. Song Saver – was rained out by a big rainstorm at Penn National, and then got quarantined by outbreak of equine herpes virus, will run next week at Parx
4. Tonalistic – recovering from various problems
5. Ribot’s Valentine – recovering from various problems
6. Star Six Nine – (a son of Dialed In bought by MyRacehorse.com) is beginning to work

A friend from Lone Star Park sent me his 10 choices from the NY-bred sale. Let’s watch these horses over the next few years. This is a group with high quality mares that leads to an above median price point. An investment guy might call this a “growth stock strategy” as opposed to a “value strategy”.

1. #359 – c – Mendelssohn – Canaryinacage by Mineshaft. This mare is the grand dam of my real horse Quick Tempo. The mare has only had two winners from seven foals. Nick is B+. Clement paid $160,000
2. #385 – f – Accelerate – Delay of Game by Bernardini. You can never go wrong with a Bernardini mare. I am still not sure about the sire . A++ nick. Same cross as Cezanne. David Ingordo paid $335,000
3. #411 – f – Mendelssohn – Flash Act by Sky Mesa. A++ nick. Same cross as Harmonize. Mare was slow, but produced three nice horses. Solid idea. Jumel Partners paid $180,000
4. #414 – f – Pioneeerof the Nile – Flipcup by Milwaukee Brew. First foal, from a quality mare. Hirsch paid $220,000.
5. #417 – f – Tiznow – Forever Smart by Smart Strike. Very solid mare, produced five $100,000+ winners, just never been a Tiznow fan. Sold for $50,000.
6. #457 – c – Looking at Lucky – La Boheme by Giant’s Causeway. A+ nick. Interesting 2nd dam. Sold for $30,000, could be a bargain.
7. #482 – f – Street Sense – Maximova by Danehill Dancer – The one horse we agree on, which might mean impending doom. McMahon paid $140,000.
8. #515 – c – Blame – Pleased by Bernardini. Mare sold for $350,000 and ran an 89 equibase for Pletcher. B+ nick. Very interesting idea. Sold for $125,000.
9. #523 – c – Nyquist – Pursuing Justice by To Honor and Serve. First foal, good 2nd dam. A++ nick. Cross of Vequist. Solid idea for expensive sire. Sold for $105,000 to William Punk
10. #566 – f – Nyquist – Smoke Signals by Street Sense. Mare ran a 98 as a turf sprinter. Too speedy for my taste. The buyer is no dummy. Reeves Thoroughbred paid $160,000.

It was disappointing to have #301 go for such a high price. The median for the first night was $80,000, up from $60,000 in 2019. The big partnerships were quiet. Small partnership Dream Maker Racing bought the topper paying $495,000 for an Uncle Mo. Wow, that is a lot for a small group.

My main goal for today would be to wait and try to get #605 for under $100,000. I guess I have to be ready to buy #482, but anything under $150,000 I would view as potentially TGTBT.

Or maybe #439 for under $75,000 would be a bargain. Maybe #486 would be a decent Cairo Prince for under $50,000.

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Mike Repole ruined my day again by bidding $200,000 for the other Dialed In #605.

The partnerships were quiet except for Zilla buying two sprint oriented horses, and Donegal stepping in to buy a surprising horse.

#482 was my distance specialist she sold for “only” $140,000. I would call that a bargain. #439 was also a bargain at $30,000. My Cairo Prince must have been missing a leg becasue she sold for only $5,000

The median fell on the second day, making the overall median a reasonable $70,000. Buybacks were high, but not too bad.

Now it is on to Keeneland, where the fun really begins.

My favorite horse by a large margin is the first horse in the sale. I would love to get her for $50,000, but I would be willing to pay more. I might go up to $125,000 because i like her that much. It would be tough in the real world to not wait for Keeneland. My first glance at the Keeneland catalog has not shown me a great Honor Code or Cairo Prince, so I would spend all my money here if the budget were $150,000.

The second dam is exactly what I am looking for. Maybe the crowd will not be settled in and I could steal her.

I might settle for #368 or #358 for under $60,000, but I would most likely wait for Keeneland. There are a few second night horses, especially #605, that I might wait for.

Let’s see what happens with #301.

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Sports drink mogul Mike Repole paid $200,000 for my favorite filly. That is a fair price, but not a bargain. It’s good to see she will have a nice home. Her video was not that impressive. I guess Repole is trying to corner the market.

My friend liked a Central Banker filly, #320, with deep female family that sold for only $23,000, maybe that’s a bargain.

#358 was no bargain selling for $225,000 (a Unified did win the Ellis Park Futuruty today), and #369 wasjust plain ugly selling for only $27,000. Frosted is in trouble.

David Ingordo paid $335,000 for an Accelerate.

By far the best bargain of the night was #393 – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister 4/8 foal, B nick. The 2nd dam was a 99 equibase running daughter of Kingmambo. Ray Handal and oracle Bloodstock only paid $30,000. These are the guys that buy Blue Streak’s horses. I am not a big Good Samaritan fan, but he did win on turf and dirt and at 1 1/4 miles, so he is no sprinter. I overlooked this horse because the mare was too slow, but on second thought this was a solid idea.

I did eventually buy 5% of this horse from Blue Streak

A strong second day brought the Saratoga sale to an about as expected conclusion. The median increased to $350,000 (from $300,000 in 2019) and a few big horses pushed the average to $408,000. There were the expected amount of RNA’s and withdrawals. I thought the Into Mischief’s sold poorly. (only 3 of 19 IM’s sold for more than $500,000) 10 of the 14 Justify’s either were RNA’s or withdrawn.

Bolt d’Oro was a big success, and so was Good Magic. Mendelssohn was a flop.

The partnerships came of swinging. MyRaceHorse.com bought 5 at aggressive prices, West Point bought 4 (in combination with partners), and Eclipse bought 2. Centennial surprisingly bought 2 of their expected four horses.

I like one of the West Point’s and was disappointed in the Centennial selections.

I think I did a pretty good job of estimating the values at this sale, but sometimes was too low on “empty mares”.

The unexciting Honor Code did not sell, but the West Coast filly I liked, #180, that I estimated might sell for $120,000 was actually sold for $125,000. I was impressed by my ability to put a good value on that horse.

Prior to writing about buying race horses, I was writing about an intelligent approach to sports gambling. If you have no interest in sports gambling, please ignore this post.

If you want to understand why my favorite sires are Honor Code and Point of Entry, and not the popular Into Mischief and Uncle Mo, then please keep reading.

Here are my favorite teams to have above average “Against the Spread” (ATS) records in 2021. My emphasis is on teams with hidden talent that has yet to be reflected by actual performance. Lots of 3rd year coaches finally getting to play their own recruits.

1. Texas Tech – Coach Matt Wells was the top assistant to ultra-outlaw Gary Anderson at Utah State. This is his 3rd season at TT, he is on the hot seat. Lots of transfers. 7 – 6 ATS
2. UCLA – This is the 4th season for former pro coach Chip Kelly. It is now or never, the alumni are getting restless. 8 – 4 ATS
3. Central Michigan – The 3rd season for former Colorado State and Florida coach Jim McElwain. Big fish is a small pond. Second best recruiting class in the MAC. 7 – 5 ATS
4. Maryland – Coach Locksley was a top recruiter at Alabama, and this is his 3rd year at Maryland. Lots of talent, no results as of yet. 4 – 8 ATS
5. Texas State – Coach Jake Spavital was a top recruiter at Texas A&M. This is his third year in beautiful San Marcos. 7 – 4 ATS
6. North Texas – Coach Littrel has had two bad years after two great years. I am still a believer. Can he find any defensive players? 8 – 3 ATS
7. East Carolina – Coach Mike Houston won two national championships at Division II James Madison. This is his third year with the Pirates. 7 – 3 ATS
8. West Virginia – Coach Neal Brown was the former OC at outlaw programs Texas Tech and Kentucky. At Troy coach Brown beat LSU. Now in his 3rd year at WV. 6 – 7 ATS
9. Florida State – Coach Norvell was a great recruiter at outlaw Memphis. Only in 2nd year at Florida State, but the transfer portal is speeding up the process. 6 – 6 ATS
10. UNLV – Only the 2nd year for coach Marcus Arroyo (assistant at outlaw Oregon), but already had a great recruiting year. 7 – 4 ATS

67 – 50 ATS assuming 10 common games 62 – 45 about 59%

Watching new coaches at: Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, Mich St, Rutgers, Illinois, Arizona, and Colorado.

NFL teams to watch:

1. Denver – 10th best roster, but nobody believes in Drew Lock except me
2. Carolina – Nobody believes in Sam Darnold except me.
3. Arizona – Nobody believes in Kliff Kingsbury, now in his 3rd season. Buy low.

Just for fun, let’s try some British soccer:

1. Wolverhampton Wanderers – second tier team with a new coach that disappointed the last two seasons
2. Brentford Bees – Newly promoted to Premier. Run by a sports gambler Matthew Benham.
3. Blackpool Tangerines – great story about a team with new ownership, newly promoted to The Championship, lots of history
4. Barnsley Tykes – nearly made it to Premier last year. Billy Beane is a shareholder. Moneyball approach.
5. Cheltenham Town Robins – Low budget small town team is its first year in League One
6. Lincoln City Imps – Almost got promoted last year. How can you not cheer for the Imps

As I sort through my favorites at the Fasig-Tipton NY-bred sale, a clear favorite emerges. It is the first horse in the sale, hip #301, a filly by Dialed In.

Here is what I like:

1. The 2nd dam, Party Cited, ran a 115 Equibase fig at 1 3/8 miles to win a Grade 3 turf race at Golden Gate. She also placed in several other graded route races, but never won.
2. The 2nd dam produced a $700,000+ winner, Composure, that won G1 route races and another foal won $800,000+ and the West Virginia Derby (G3)
3. The 2nd dam was by the great Alleged. Alleged in the only two time winner of the Arc de Triomphe. He was not a great sire, but this was one of his best daughters.
4. The dam, Uchitel, was not a successful runner, but she did produce a colt, Suddenbreakingnews, that ran 5th in the Kentucky Derby for ultra-low profile connections (trained by Donnie von Hemel).
5. Uchitel is by the controversial Afleet Alex. AA was not the most successful sire, but he certainly adds stamina.
6. The sire, Dialed In, is undervalued. He produced Gunnevera from a poor mare, and Super Stock from a questionable mare.
7. Dialed In is the sire of Star Six Nine, a really nice looking colt that MyRaceHorse.com bought. Check out his photo at their website.
8. The filly is a May 5th foal. I can not imagine a pinhooker being interested.
9. There are plenty of NY-bred turf races to run in.
10. The median Dialed In yearling was only $25,000 last year, I would pay twice that for this girl, maybe more.

In many ways hip #301 is almost a perfect plodder/plodder.

The nick is only rated C, but the success of Mineshaft (Dialed In’s father) with this particular mare makes that less of a factor.

Quick Tempo will run Saturday in the G2 Bing Crosby at Del Mar. He is listed at 12-1 against a field that includes last year’s BC Sprint runner-up CZ Rocket.

The choice was to run in this race against older horses, but only go 6 furlongs vs. going 6 1/2 vs straight 3 year olds in the Amsterdam at Saratoga. Del Mar was willing to pay expenses, and the winner gets a free pass to the BC Sprint. Shipping to Saratoga is a hassle because it is hard to get stall space.

QT is second off a 6 month layoff. He has been at Del Mar for more than a week. I do not mind trying older horses. I am surprised the field has grown to 9 horses, which is more than most California stakes races.

I will give the Dare to Dream guys an A- for creativity. The easy choice was the Amsterdam, but it looks likes Jackie’s Warrior will be there. QT’s 94 Beyer at Prairie Meadow gives him a reasonable shot in this field.

It has been a wild ride from the 2020 Ocala training sale to a G2 at Del Mar. I wish I could be standing in the paddock, but travel is too much of a hassle right now.

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There is no joy in Mudville, mighty Quick Tempo has struck out.

QT could not out sprint the California speed. He got a mouthful of dirt for the first time and packed it in. The final time of the race was almost exactly what the winner (Dr. Schivel) ran as a maiden 12 months ago. How can a Grade 2 race for older horses at 6 furlongs have the same final time a 2 yr old MSW race a year before?

Were the horses that bad? Or was the track that slow? Was the race mis-timed?

If the track was that slow then the split of 44.67 might have been way too fast.

The horse that beat QT at Prairie Meadows, Special Reserve, lost the G1 Vanderbilt by a nose, in a very fast time.

The next catalog to appear is for a sale of 308 New York breds that will occur a few days after the main Saratoga sale. This is a much more realistic sale for my price range. In 2018 the median at this sale was $76,000, and in 1019 it was only $60,000. These are reasonably priced horses, compared to their Kentucky bred brothers.

That excitement was muted when I found that 6 of top 10 sires did not have a single horse is the sale. Not a single Honor Code, Midnight Storm, Point of Entry, American Freedom, Tonalist, or Shamen Ghost. The 3 Connects were very sprint oriented.

I am left with a collection of reasonable ideas, but nothing all that exciting.

1. #462 – f – Street Sense – Maximova by Danehill Dancer, C nick, 3/24 foal, dam won stakes at 1/ 3/8 miles, probably too expensive
2. #448 – c – Cairo Prince – Jesse’s Justice by Lear Fan, C nick, 4/1 foal, solid mare and 2nd dam
3. #486 – c – Cairo Prince – Meteoric Matron by Mineshaft, B nick 2/10 foal, 2nd dam by Hansel
4. #439 – c – Temple City – Honoria by Sadler’s Wells, D nick, 6/8 foal, unusual
5. #358 – f – Unified – Caldwell by Malibu Moon, A nick. 4/24 foal, interesting
6. #301 – f – Dialed In – Uchitel by Afleet Alex, C nick, 5/5 foal, 2nd dam by the great Alleged, (the first horse in the sale)
7. #605 – f – Dialed In – Tulipmania by Empire Maker, A+ nick, 3/5 foal, low risk, solid mare and 2nd dam
8. #548 – c – Gormley – Sapphire Sky by Sky Mesa, F nick, 5/23 foal, solid mare
9. #369 – f – Frosted – Chocolate Smoothie = A nick, 4/10 foal, 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch
10. #553 – f – West Coast – Saythreehailmarys by Repent, D nick, 3/30 foal, mare won Ladies Handicap
11. #575 – f – Astern – Spuntastic by Hard Spun, C+ nick, 4/14 foal, mare of Blue Streak’s Rossa Veloce. 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch

In the real world I would most likely wait through the sale and try to buy #605 for less than $40,000.

#605 is a very solid choice. Mom was a turf router for low profile Tom Bush and ran a 90 Equibase. The 2nd dam ran 100 in turf routes. Both mom and the 2nd dam have also been above average producers. Dialed In is a sneaky good sire not many folks notice.

It will be interesting to see the price on #462. What if she sells for less than $150,00? Mom was stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles. This would be an ideal horse if I could afford her, but Street Sense is on fire with the success of Maxfield. Maybe the cool kids will ignore the stamina horse. Let’s watch.

What would do if I had to buy one horse at this sale for say $350,000? One strategy would be do buy a boring Quality Road. The good ones will sell for more, but maybe I could get the bottom one. I am not sure this is the best strategy, but it would be a reasonable one.

Let’s guess at the price for each Quality Road:

1. #15 – c – G1 winning mare by Uncle Mo, A+ nick, $1,000,000, $500,000 RNA
2. #200 – c – mare of Catholic Boy, A+ nick, $900,000. $685,000 RNA
3. #111 – c – G1 winning Scat Daddy mare, A++ nick $800,000, $700,000, West Point
4. #160 – f – mare of Always Dreaming, D nick, $775,000, $1,000,000
5. #155 – f – full sister to Hootenanny, A++ nick, $750,000, $600,000
6. #93 – f – marginal Deputy Minister mare, A++ nick (Abel Tasman), $600,000, withdrawn
7. #137 – f – G2 winning During mare, A++ nick, $550,000, $600,000
8. #202 – c – solid Curlin mare, A+ nick, $500,000, $475,000
9. #62 – c – unraced Tapit mare, first foal, A nick, $450,000, $250,000
10. #114 – c – ok Malibu Moon mare, $400,000, B+ nick, $800,000
11. #13 – c – very marginal Medaglia d’Oro mare, non-winner, $300,000, A+ nick, $500,000 Starlight

That is where all the great mares are. They are bred to the $150,000 stallions. But two horse do stand out they are #13 and #114. Maybe these will sell for a bargain price. Is that the best way to spend $300,000? It is a high risk strategy, but it is not impossible. I would rather pay $300,000 for a nice City of Light, than a marginal Quality Road. Reasonable people could disagree. Maybe a partnership will buy one of these.

When you actually make a list of horses like this you begin to see why some folk use the “empty mare” strategy. They do not want to pay up for those G1 winners. Let’s see how close I get to guessing the values of the QR’s.

I did a pretty god job of estimating the values. Still surprising to see what the “empty mares” sell for sometimes. #114 and #13 were no bargains. I like the horse West Point bought. The mare, Harmonize, won the Del Mar Oaks, and the nick is A++. Just for fun I will ask what 5% will cost.

One more popular sire that is new is the $35,000 Mendelssohn. Maybe he could be a decent turf sire, but I have my doubts. He is a half brother to Into Mischief and Beholder, so there just might be too much popularity. Menelssohn’s father, Scat Daddy, was a precocious winner of the Sanford Stakes at 2 years old.

Let’s try to find a boring one:

1. #104 – c – solid Ghostzapper mare $400,000, $120,000
2. #195 – f – solid Candy ride mare $350,000, $190,000 RNA
3. #6 – c – solid Grand Slam mare $300,000, $350,000 RNA
4. #80 – c – ok Awesome of course mare $275,000, $120,000 RNA
5. #196 – f – solid Minister’s Wildcat mare $260,000, withdrawn
6. #43 – f – ok Mr. Greeley mare $250,000, withdrawn
7. #169 – f – marginal unraced Curlin mare $200,000, A nick, $435,000 Klaravich

Maybe I could steal the Curlin mare if the cool kids look for the precocious Mendelssohn. Not a real great collection of mares. The more I look the more I think this sale is another group of “physicals” without too much pedigree.

The Menddelssohn’s were very disappointing. Was Seth the smart guy for paying up? Let’s watch and find out.

There is a lot of thinking to do on a boring Sunday morning.

Street Sense is a sire that is out of my price range at $60,000, but maybe I can find a sneaky one at this sale. Maxfield is exactly the kind of horse I am looking for, Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare. Let’s see if we can find a boring Street Sense:

1. #35 – f – stakes winning Lion Heart mare $500,000, $210,000
2. #46 – c – ok Indian Charlie mare $450,000, $200,000
3. #59 – c – ok Unbridled Song mare $400,000, $310,000
4. #164 – f – solid Arch mare $375,000, first foal, B nick, $235,000 RNA
5. #74- f – unraced Giant’s Causeway mare, risky $350,000, $535,000
6. #135 – f – ok Ghostzapper mare $325,000, $250,000
7. #97 – f – unraced Tale of the Cat mare $300,000, $250,000 Cenntenial
8. #131 – f – marginal Hard Spun mare $250,000, B+ nick, withdrawn
9. #206 – c – marginal Exchange Rate mare $200,000, $350,000

The sneaky horse I would like is #131. The mare, Loom, was second tier G Watts Humphey filly that only won 2 of 25 races, but is a daughter of AP indy. Hard Spun is not may favorite broodmare sire, but he is sometimes reasonable. If everyone chases the fancier Street Sense’s, maybe I could steal #131 for $150,000. Just dreaming of that overlooked horse.

Maxfield did not win, and therefore the Street Sense’s did not sell. As usual, my favorite, #131, did not even make it to the ring. Again the risky mares sold better than the solid ones. Centennial bought an empty mare I am not too thrilled about.

Another first year sire with lots of excitement is the $30,000 Good Magic. Anyone that loves stamina, should love a son of Curlin. I have my reservations. Good Magic is 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector, and his photo is exactly that. He seems to be big strong horse without lots of length. I prefer the look and female family of Connect, and he is only $15,000.

Just for education let’s rank and guess the price:

1. #138 – solid Malibu Moon mare $400,000, $145,000
2. #173 – solid Macho Uno mare $375,000, $675,000
3. #125 – ok Harlan’s Holiday mare $300,000, $350,000
4. #127 – ok Coranado’s Quest mare $275,000, withdrawn
5. #39 – ok exchange rate mare $250,000, first foal, $360,000
6. #199 – ok Giant’s Causeway mare $225,000, $140,000 RNA
7. #18 – marginal Giant’s Causeway mare $200,000, $325,000
8. #99 – poor Malibu moon mare $175,000, $460,000
9. #14 – poor Warrior’s Reward mare $150,000, $225,000

None of these mares are real interesting. Maybe the Malibu Moon’s are ok, but I will wait and see. The world need’s a cheaper Curlin. I will look hard at the Connect’s this year, and wait for Vino Rosso’s next year. Exaggerator seems to fading, and Keen Ice is a long shot as a sire.

Despite a bad group of mares, the Good Magic’s sold very well. Precocity sells.

The strong performance of Wit reminds us of the greatness of Medaglia d’Oro (Wit’s broodmare sire). Yet we have not found that great son of M d’O. Mshawish seems to be a washout, and Violence has really only produced sprinters. Warriors Reward stands in Pennsylvania. Enticed is a year away. Astern could be interesting, but is maybe only a sprinter.

So there is great interest in the first crop of Bolt d’Oro. Maybe there is too much interest. There are 13 to choose from in the Saratoga sale. That must be some kind of record for a $15,000 sire. Bolt d’Oro ran well early, and tailed off quickly for extra low profile connections (trainer and owner Mick Ruis). He was a $630,000 yearling and the dam by AP Indy also produced Global Campaign (winner of $1.3 million). There is a ton of pedigree here.

Let’s rank the 13 and guess the sales price:

1. #132 – dam of Rachel Alexandra $500,000, by Roar, $1,400,000 wow !?!
2. #186 – decent Quality Road mare $300,000, first foal. C nick, $500,000
3. #144 – unraced Pioneerof the Nile mare $250,000, first foal, A++ nick, $250,000
4. #3 – ok Speightstown mare $250,000, $260,000, West Point
5. #2 – risky Empire Maker mare $250,000, $235,000 RNA
6. #146 – ok Distorted Humor mare $225,000, $550,000
7. #104 – marginal Smart Strike mare $150,000, $120,000
8. #121 – stakes winning Five Star Day mare, $125,000, $275,000
9. #64 – marginal Street Cry mare $110,000, nick is A, $145,000
10. #119 – slow Proud Citizen mare $100,000, $350,000
11. #91 – poor Take Me Out mare, $75,000, $200,000
12. #210 – ok Boston Harbor mare, $75,000, $140,000
13. #193 – unraced City Zip mare, $50,000, $135,000 RNA

These are the mares you get for a $15,000 sire. It is not a pretty group. Maybe you take a chance with the first foals with great broodmare sires #144 and #186, or pay up for #132.

To me the only interesting horse is #64. The Street Cry mare has only produced one decent runner and had several failures, so this is risky at best.

I like the concept of Bolt d’Oro, but I am not thrilled by the choice of moms. Let’s wait for Keeneland.

Bolt d’Oro is officially the new hot sire. Not often that a $15,000 sire sells for $1,400,000, even if the dam did produce Rachel Alexandra (why did they choose a $15,000 sire?)

The battle for the 2022 Kentucky Derby began yesterday with the running of the Sanford Stakes (G3) at Saratoga. Only one winner in the last 25 years of this race was ever competitive in the Derby (Afleet Alex finished 3rd in the Derby, but won the Preakness and Belmont). The other winners either stayed sprinters (Fienze Fire and City Zip) or faded into obscurity. Scat Daddy did win the Florida Derby and sire Justify.

In the battle of speed versus stamina, score a point for speed. The winner of the Sanford, Wit, is a son of sprinter Practical Joke. Practical Joke is a son of the ever present Into Mischief and a sprinter mare, A son of my favorite Honor Code did sneak in for 3rd, and a son of Gormley got 2nd.

It was also a big win for the “empty mare” theory. Repole and partners paid $575,000 for a son of Practical Joke (the next highest price for a PJ was $400,000) from and unraced mare, The mare was a daughter of the great Medaglia d’Oro, and she did produce a stakes winner in Barkley, so perhaps she should best be called “sneaky” rather than “empty”. Wit’s 2nd dam was a solid router that won over $200,000 (by Afleet). The 3rd dam was a stamina oriented French horse.

Maybe Wit is the next super horse, or maybe he is just a precocious sprinter. The female family gives him a chance to be an above average horse.

The Schuylerville was won by a Marylou Whitney filly sired by Bird Song (already sent to Saudi Arabia). The last decent horse to win this race was Countess Diana in 1997. The second place finished was an interesting horse named, Mainstay, by the new sire Astern. Let’s keep an eye on Astern.

Congratulation to the folks at Zilla Racing for winning a nice allowance race on the opening day of Saratoga. That is not an easy thing to do for a smaller stable.

That race made me think one more time about a horse they bought at the OBS sale and are still offering 1% of for $3,400. They named the horse Drakon. Zilla also bought a nice Nyquist yearling for $200,000, that is now working well under the name Whiskey Lullaby.

Drakon is a son of First Samurai, who is a son of Giant’s Causeway. Not This Time has stepped in to be the heir to Giant’s Causeway. Brody’s Cause, Creative Cause, Carpe Diem, and Fed Biz are not making the cut. First Samurai is just holding on. There were only 3 to choose from at the OBS sale. FS was a precocious juvenile that did stretch out to win the Fountain of Youth, but not much else. I still consider him just a “run early” sire.

Drakon worked a sharp 10.0 at the sale, and Mike Piazza from Zilla reported some nice stride metrics from that workout. Zilla did pay $200,000, and I think they reported that Liz Crow was the under-bidder.

The mare Fox Chapel was an unplaced daughter of sprinter/miler El Corredor (by Mr. Greeley.) The nick was a D.

In many ways this is a perfect “athlete” where you try to ignore the pedigree. If I liked sprinting horse from training sales, this would be hard to pass up. You can feel the enthusiasm in Mike’s texts as the horse begins to work for Brad Cox. My discipline tells me “no”, but if I were just playing by feel the answer might be “yes”.

Drakon ran 3 times and was never better than 3rd. He has not worked for a few months. I feel bad for the good folks at Zilla.

Maybe I am too negative of this group of new sires. I pushed myself to become moderately convinced that Collected could be a good sire, even though he is a son of sprint oriented City Zip. But Collected is so boring that he could not even get one horse in the fancy Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. Let’s try a little harder to get excited about another new sire.

The obvious choice is City of Light. He is expensive at $40,000, but money is no issue if you are a cool kid. The good news is that City of Light was the ultimate late developer. He was a May foal that did not start until July of his 3 year old season. At the end of his 3 year old season he won the Malibu Stakes at 7 furlongs. Then stretched out to win the Breeders Cup mile at the end of his 4 year old season, and then the Pegasus at 1 1/8 miles at 5 years old. He is kind of the ultimate slow developing horse. He was trained by low profile Mike McCarthy, not one the super trainers.

City of Light is a son of the great Quality Road. To me the magic of Quality Road comes from the dam by Strawberry Road, not so much his sire Elusive Quality. City of Light’s dam is an unimpressive and unraced Dehere mare, but the grandmother was a very successful mare that was 9 fo 16 back in the 1980’s, and won multiple G1’s. There is a lot to like here. City of Light does stand at Lane’s End. Let’s hope the cool kids chase Justify, Arrogate, Mendelssohn, and forget about the slow developing City of Light’s.

There are 7 in the Saratoga sale, let’s rank them:

1. #209 – c – a Victory Gallup mare that produced Travel Column and Neolithic, A+ nick, this should be an expensive horse, maybe $600,000, $725,000
2. #175 – f – the mare won $500,000 and produced a $500,000 winner (Share the Ride), A+ nick, maybe $500,000, $500,000
3. #96 – c – a Flatter mare that recently produced G2 winner Merneith, B+ nick, maybe $450,000, $210,000
4. #154 – f – an AP Indy mare that has been a modest producer, but the 2nd dam produced Aldebaren and Good Journey, B+ nick, maybe $300,000, $650,000
5. #55 – c – a Harlan’s Holiday mare that produced a sprinter 2nd in the G1 Vosburgh, C+ nick, maybe $250,000, $250,000
6. #33 – c – a Kitten’s Joy mare that won $165,000, D nick, maybe $200,000, $500,000 West Point
7. #185 – c – a Scat Daddy mare that won $170,000 in Canada, A++ nick, 4/20 foal, maybe you can steal this one for $150,000, $160,000 Rockingham Ranch

Maybe the best value here is #154. You get AP Indy and a great extended family, without having to pay up for any stakes winning offspring. Or maybe #185 is the value play.

I would not say I am excited, but I am moderately interested in thinking a little more about the offspring of City of Light. Let’s watch.

The City of Light’s sold well. I really like #185 the more I look at him.

The Saratoga yearling sale will occur in 3 weeks. The catalog is 210 horses. In 2019 the median price was $300,000+, so it is really out of my price range. In 2019 there were 10 horses that sold for $150,000 or less (the cheapest was $100,000)

Liz Crow thinks that you can sometimes find value in a horse that put in a sale that might be “over it’s head”, so I will at least consider the bargains.

The sale does not even include any Cairo Prince, Midnight Storm, American Freedom, Point of Entry, Gormley, or any other “low class riff-raff”. This is a sale for the cool kids.

There is one Honor Code:

#30 – f – Honor Code – You Make Me Sing by Unbridled Song, B nick, 4/24 foal, $170,000 RNA

The mare was slow, but she has produced a decent turf router in Annex. For under $150,000 this might be a decent idea, but in reality I would prefer to wait for Keeneland and find a better deal.

There is one Connect #12 and one Unified #190, that might be marginal prospects, but nothing else from my top 12 sires.

One other horse that might be interesting:

#180 -f – West Coast – Rock and Glory by Rock Hard Ten, A nick, 4/17 foal, private sale of $125,000

The mare was a solid router in Western Canada and Turf Paradise (she ran a 99). The second dam (by Southern Halo) ran a 110 in the Hollywood Oaks. This is a very solid idea, if I just close my eyes and remember that West Coast is a grandson of AP Indy. Maybe this is the perfect plodder/plodder, in a sale where she is the 200th best horse. The consigner is low profile Darby Dan Farm. Maybe I can bid $120,000 and sneak her out the side door while the cool kids fight over the Justify’s and Good Magic’s. It might be worth a try. Two pinhookers bought West Coast’s for $155,000 and $135,000 in the July F/T sale, but two others sold for less than $50,000.

As I wrote the sire ranking, I realized that it is just a method to organize my thought process. I would prefer to find an Honor Code, but actually any top 30 sire might be acceptable if I find the right mare.

So exactly what am I looking for in a mare?

Ranked from most to least important.

1. did she run a Equibase figure of 90 or higher in a race at 1 1/8 miles or more
2. did she produce any offspring that were successful routing
3. is her sire thought of as a stamina influence
4. is her mother (the second dam of the horse for sale) a source of stamina (either as a runner or producer)
5. did she sell for a decent price at auction (maybe $100,000 or more)
6. was she trained by a trainer known for his route horses
7. is the TrueNicks rating B or better
8. did she not win as a 2 year old (too discourage pinhookers)
9. is the foal born in April, May, or June (too discourage the pinhookers)

The pressure of the first yearling sales is already here. It is time to do a new ranking that adds the new sires, and rethinks the current market.

Honor Code is still my favorite, and my main goal is to recreate Honor AP in some fashion. Twirling Candy is just too popular and therefore takes a big drop. Cairo Prince moves into 2nd place, especially if I can find a “turf” mare.

I am not thrilled by the new class. Only Collected, West Coast, and Accelerate move into the top 25.

The difficult sire to rank is Frosted. Is he a value or a write-off? Even Classic Empire is slipping and might present some opportunity.

The new catalog for the Saratoga yearling sale is out and it looks like Bolt d’ Oro, Good Magic and Mendelssohn will be too popular.

Tonalist move back up my new list and so does Upstart and Astern.

1. Honor Code (trying to recreate Honor AP),
2. Cairo Prince (getting better mares),
3. Midnight Storm (maybe too popular at the sales?),
4. Point of Entry (the heir to Dynaformer?),
5. Connect (a cheap Curlin?),
6. American Freedom (AP Indy + Pleasant Colony),
7. Tonalist (Country Grammar is the model)
8. Gormley (a quicker Malibu Moon?),
9. Dialed In (still a value),
10. Shaman Ghost (not in anyone else’s top 10),
11. Unified (can he be more than a miler?, the Centennial influence),
12. Union Rags (still the unicorn),
13. Liam’s Map (Colonel Liam is the story),
14. Upstart (let’s rethink)
15. Classic Empire (did not sell as well as expected),
16. Frosted (are we giving up too soon?),
17. Collected (maybe a stamina sire?)
18. West Coast (trusting Lane’s End)
19. Accelerate (Looking at Lucky + Awesome Again)
20. Astern (maybe he will go two turns)
21. Mastery (losing popularity with the cool kids?)
22. Mr. Speaker (decent turf horses),
23. Lemon Drop Kid (the last crops),
24. Temple City (falling behind Point of Entry),
25. Air Force Blue (not giving up yet),
26. Summer Front (not many to choose from),
27. Creative Cause (the Airdrie factor)
28. Violence (can they go two turns?),
29. Twirling Candy (too popular)
30. Funtastic
31. Good Samaritan
32. Cloud Computing
33. Always Dreaming
34. Tapwrit
35. Oscar Performance
36. Mendelssohn
37. City of Light
38. Bolt d’ Oro
39. Good Magic
40. Maclean’s Music (can they go two turns?),
41. Blame (trying to recreate Nadal),
42. Bernardini (hard to find a cheap one),
43. Cupid (late developers?),
44. Practical Joke (maybe they will go two turns?),
45. Keen Ice (the ultimate plodder),
46. Exaggerator (plodder),
47. Hard Spun (getting decent turf horses),
48. Malibu Moon (getting cheap enough),
49. Ironicus (the hope of Helium),
50. Ransom the Moon
51. Free Drop Billy
52. Klimt (can they be more than sprinters?),
53. Mohaymen (not much at the sales),
54. Tapiture (solid but not spectacular),
55. Mineshaft (very boring),
56. Midshipman (the ultimate value sire),
57. Flintshire (making a small comeback?),
58. Lea (value?),
59. Karakontie (maybe?),
60. Anchor Down (maybe?),
61. Bal a Bali (watching),
62. Big Blue Kitten (not giving up yet),
63. Brody’s Cause (fading),
64. First Samurai (love the Zilla story),
65. Mshawish (time to give up?),
66. Noble Mission (time to give up?),
67. Orb (exiled),
68. Tourist (time to give up?),
69. Will Take Charge (time to give up),
70. Army Mule

Let’s try to do the partnership rankings again, but let’s define the terms a little more carefully.

Which partnership am I most likely to invest with over the next over the next 15 months (that considers yearling sales next year)? These ranking reflect my bias toward selecting stamina oriented horses.

1. Blue Streak – Tim has done a great job with Ribot’s Valentine, and will be shopping at my preferred price point this fall. For me, small is better.
2. Brilliant Racing – I really like the structure of their new yearling partnership. They are rated this high because I value process over results.
3. Zilla Racing – I appreciate the enthusiasm and disclosure that Mike brings to the business. I have just not found the right horse to get involved with. Great job with claiming horses.
4. Centennial – I love the process, but recent results have been the issue. I want to believe.
5. Donegal – I love the process, but was not a fan of last year’s Uncle Mo’s, nice job with Shamrocket and Arklow
6. Ten Strike – I was very close to investing this year, but the horses were too much Cox/Crow milers who might stretch out.
7. West Point – I came very close on a horse now called Derecho Dandy. They might buy a yearling I really love.
8. Eclipse – They have been close with a few of their turf horses.
9. Little Red Feather – They would rank higher if they did more outside California.
10. Dare to Dream – If I were more interested in 2 year olds in training, these guys would be at the top of the list. Great results with Quick Tempo.
11. MyRaceHorse.com – They have been buying better horses, and have not been too “over-promotional” in the last 6 months.
12. Pocket Aces – They have bought some interesting horses at bargain prices. I will be watching carefully for this year’s yearlings
13. Victory Racing – I considered a horse now named Fully Connected.
14. Ironhorse – They have picked a few interesting horses.
15. Bourbon Lane – Their yearling partnership last year was solid, but not exciting
16. Kenwood Racing – I love their results, but have not really liked their horse selection.
17. Pewter – So far the results with Song Saver and Frosted Angel have been poor, but I will remain patient.
18. Funky Munky – I like Richie’s enthusiasm, will be watching their Mineshaft 2 year old
19. Hibiscus – I have not been thrilled with their communication on Tonalistic
20. Starlight – Expensive and not impressed with their selections.
21. Commonwealth – a new version of MyRaceHorse.com???, watching
22. Bloodlines Racing – waiting for their next purchase
23. Don’t Tell My Wife – need to learn more
24. Bona Venture – no new horses
25. Wasabi – not sure what to expect
26. Final Furlong – need to learn more
27. Slam Dunk – need to learn more
28. Horseplayers Racing – need an update
29. Crown’s Way – watching for something new
30. Dream Team Racing – watching for something new
31. Basset Stables – watching for something new
32. Dream Maker Racing – watching
33. Taste of Victory – very confused

One partnership group I had been watching, but never communicated with, is Brilliant Racing. They have been moderately successful with some 2 year old in training selections, but I was not sure what they would do next. I had added my name to their mailing list over a year ago.

Yesterday I received a very well prepared presentation that announced they were forming a new partnership to buy yearlings for the first time. There were a lot of things to like:

1. the plan is to buy 3-4 yearlings in the $20,000 to $100,000 range (a range I like)
2. they buy horses in combination with strong groups, yet still control the decision making process
3. they plan to raise $300,000+, so expenses will be covered for more than a year
4. the structure is without markup, or high fees, they get a % of purses
5. The principals have both gambling and horse backgrounds
6. The principals have full time jobs in addition to the partnership
7. they seems to emphasize patience, and not “having horse ready to run at Saratoga”
8. they returned my e-mail with a phone call in less than 30 minutes
9. their partnership agreement in very well done from a legal perspective
10. each unit in the partnership is only $3,000

This is not a big operation like Eclipse, West Point, or even Ten Strike. They have only been in the partnership business for 4 years, but I am a fan of the “little guy” who just might be working a little harder. I will be sending in my money to buy 1 unit, and I can now watch the yearling sales with a new level of excitement.

After everything I have learned about the partnership business over the last year, I asked myself the following question:

How would I structure a new partnership if I were starting from scratch?

I think I would include 85-90% of the features I find in the new Brilliant Racing partnership. That is why I am an investor.

The first yearling sale has ended with mixed results. The median sale price increased to $80,000 from a median of $75,000 in 2019 (this sale was not held last year). Let’s call that OK, but not great. The RNA rate was reported at 33%, but was actually closer to 40% when considering withdrawals.

Eclipse fired 3 bullets, including partnering on the $800,000 sale topper by the ever popular Into Mischief. West Point bought a $110,000 son of Collected. Donegal snuck in to buy a $130,000 son of Arrogate. The other partnerships were quiet. Liz Crow did buy three, maybe those could be for Ten Strike, but she has other clients. The strange news was Ken McPeek bought 13 horses for about $100,000 a pop. There seemed to be a 50/50 mix of pinhookers and “buy to race” buyers.

Maybe the surprise stallion was Mor Spirit selling 5 for over $100,000 each. Results were OK for some of the new stallions, but nothing exceptional. Again this was a strange collections of horses that seemed to little light on pedigree.

What would I have bought at this sale? Most likely nothing, but for educational purposes let’s muse about what I could have done.

The horse I really wanted was #103, the daughter of Collected that I wrote a separate post about. She was RNAed for a disappointing $22,000. Last year I would have just ignored this horse, but this year I want to keep better track of these RNA’s. I will mark her down as a $25,000 purchase with an asterisk.

In the real world the horse I might have actually bought was #277 a filly by Tonalist. Tonalist had moved out of my top 10 sires, but the emergence of Country Grammar has caused me to rethink that. This is a very solid mare, and the nick is A++. This is a model plodder/plodder horse, and I love the value at only $35,000. The real world buyer was a small operation that races primarily at Prairie Meadows, I think they got the best deal at the sale.

If I throw the budget out the window then my favorite horse would be the City of Light colt #255. The price was “only” 4x the stud fee. If I really buy into the Lane’s End methodology then maybe this is the best horse at this sale. The buyer here was a low profile group out of Louisiana. Let’s watch.

Since the theme of this sale is new sires, let’s add on from that group. Good Samaritan was good for Bill Mott on turf and dirt so let’s watch his results going forward. Let’s also watch a daughter of Mendelssohn going forward.

Let’s give West Point some credit for buying a son of Collected for a solid $110,000. This was the new sire I thought was the most interesting. The mare here is by Bluegrass Cat and has some stamina credentials. I do not “love” this buy, but I do respect it.

Another very realistic horse to buy was solid son of American Freedom. Maybe the best focus was on 2nd year sires instead of the brand new guys. This horse has a great 2nd dam and the price was right. Pinhooker Julie Davis bought him, let’s see how she does. Another 2nd year sire idea is #290 where I really like the dam.

1. #103 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch – April 1, B nick, $25,000*
2. #277 – f – Tonalist – 2nd dam by Dynaformer, A++ nick, nick of Country Grammar, $35,000
3. #255 – c – City of Light by Pleasant Mine, April 30 foal, B+ nick, 4/30 foal, $170,000
4. #115 – f – Good Samaritan – dam a granddaughter of Medaglia D’ Oro, $42,000
5. #176 – f – Mendelssohn – 2nd dam by Kingmambo, D nick, $85,000
6. #48 – c – Collected – Moonshine Magic by Bluegrass Cat, $110,000
7. #106 – c – American Freedom – Beauty N Balance by Looking at Lucky, $25,000
8. #290 – c – Unified – from Bob Ribaudo/Marc Keller mare Sotique, $55,000

I most likely would have waited for Keeneland, but there were some horses to think about at this sale. Many of my better ideas were RNAed or withdrawn. It is difficult to execute my plodder/plodder strategy if the sellers will not sell.

The next sale is some fancy horses at Saratoga in August, but the catalog is not out yet.

1. Quick Tempo (Tapizar) ran a nice comeback race at Prairie Meadows
2. Blonde on Tap (Tapiture) is recovering from leg surgery and is galloping at Arlington
3. Song Saver (Super Saver) is waiting for his second race at Parx
4. Tonalistic (Tonalist) is waiting for his second race at Saratoga
5. Ribot’s Valentine (Point of Entry) might get her first start at Saratoga
6. Star Six Nine – (Dialed In) not yet working 2 year old by MyRaceHorse.com

I have been writing for more than a year about the need to find stamina in young horses, yet the one successful young horse I own part of (2%) might be the quickest horse in recent memory.

Quick Tempo made his comeback race from a knee chip in the $100,000 Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows. He was a 3 year old facing older horses for the first time. He ran:

21. 44 and 43.35. (the run up is only 43 feet)

before a Mike Maker horse caught him in the stretch. QT finished a solid second to a horse that ran 1:08.18. QT beat Empire of Gold by 4 lengths. Empire of Gold was 4th in last years Breeders Cup Sprint (he was the leader at 4 furlongs).

Can anyone name a 3 year old horse that ran that fast of a dry track for 4 furlongs?

The great sprinter Majesticperfection ran a Beyer of 117 in the same race in 2006, and he ran “only ” a 43.48, but he was a 4 year old.

The Equibase speed figure came back as 107 for QT. His previous best was 95. I guess most owners would be happy, but I think that is too fast off a 6 month layoff.

Where will the Dare to Dream guys try him next? The conservative approach would be to try another Midwest event in August. The aggressive approach would be to a stake at Saratoga against straight 3 year olds. If the Beyer comes back at 95 or higher it would seem you should try the aggressive approach. We will see. I just hope he can stay healthy.

The Beyer for QT did come as a 94. The winner was given a 101 Beyer, the same as his previous race.

Let’s focus on hip #103 in the upcoming Fasig-Tipton July sale:

#103 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch – April 1, B nick

What do I like so much:

1. I would rather buy a filly, and not have to pay for the potential stud value of a colt
2. I want a sire that is undervalued in the $10,000 to $20,000 range
3. I would rather have a mare with little racing success, again so I do not have to pay up
4. I want an above average broodmare sire
5. To substitute for racing success of my mare, I want producing success, but not too much
6. I want a strong 2nd dam, and an above average extended family
7. I would prefer an April, May, or June foal to keep pinhookers away
8. I would prefer an A or B nick

So here is how #103 fits:

1. #103 is a filly
2. Collected is a son of City Zip, but he won the Pacific Classic and lost the BC Classic to Gun Runner by a length. Collected has an underappreciated female family. Collected is one those second tier sires Airdrie has done so well with
3. the mare, Aurore, was winless in France,
4. Aurore is a daughter of Arch, broodmare sire of Uncle Mo an I’ll Have Another, and Grandsire of Nyquist and Nadal
5. Aurore has produced 2 solid $140,000+ winners in 5 tries, but no stakes winners
6. Aurore’s mother produced 5 very successful horses, and is granddaughter of the great Personal Ensign (13 for 13, earned $1.6 million)
7. She is an April 1st foal
8. The nick of City Zip and Arch is B

In many ways #103 is a model horse. I would hope she sells for a below median ($75,000) price. She should not be the type of horse a pinhooker is looking for. Their are 12 other children of Collected to choose from.

Not surprisingly, nobody in the real world liked my horse. She was RNAed for only $22,000. Maybe I could have bid $25,000 and put her on my trailer, or maybe the breeder (Keene Hill Farm) wanted much more. We will never know. I will continue to watch and see where this horse shows up. Pinhookers did not want to buy the stamina pedigree. Ba Humbug.

Some other ideas from freshman sires:

1. #43 – Bolt D’ Oro (Medaglia d’ Oro) – very nice Lemon Drop Kid mare (OUT BEFORE SALE)
2. #98 – Accelerate (Looking for Lucky, Lane’s End) – Giant’s Causeway, decent 2nd dam, $25,000
3. #325 – Always Dreaming (Bodemeister) – some Euro pedigree on female side, RNA $34,000
4. #39 – West Coast (Flatter, Lane’s End) – Bernardini mare, D nick, $155,000
5. #82 – Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music) – ok Sky Mesa mare, RNA $34,000
6. #91 – Free Drop Billy (Union Rags) – nice Tiznow mare (OUT BEFORE SALE)
7. #30 – Good Magic (Curlin, $30,000) – Vindication mare, great cross of Exaggerator, $172,000
8. #10 – Ransom the Moon (Malibu Moon) – Delaware Oaks winning mare, $50,000
9. #2 – Tapwrit (Tapit) – ok Curlin mare, $100,000

Other ideas from experienced sires:

1. #293 – Astern – decent Broken Vow mare, RNA $30,000
2. #148 – Astern – decent Malibu Moon mare, RNA $11,000
3. #117 – Liam’s Map – lots of stamina on female side, D nick, $65,000
4. #215 – Mineshaft – interesting mare, D nick (OUT BEFORE SALE)
5. #253 – Frosted – AP Indy second dam, withdrawn
6. #150 – Mohaymen – good female family, RNA $39,000
7. #239 – Run Away and Hide – Fu Peg mare, $23,000
8. #119 – Street Sense – lots of stamina in female family (OUT BEFORE SALE)

The world be a better place if the sale’s companies went back and published the results of the horses they sold. It takes a little work, but you can do the calculations yourself. so I did.

Since the early Fasig/Tipton July sale was not held last year, let’s review the 2019 version. About 200 horses were sold for a median of $75,000, and an average of $92,000. The results were similar to 2018. In general this seems to be a sale for pinhookers to get an early shot at some of the new sires. There are not the fancy pedigrees you see at the Keeneland September sale.

I started by asking what happens if you buy the median horse?

I took the first 20 horses that sold for $75,000 or $70,000 in 2019 . Here is what I found looking at the results halfway through their 3 year old seasons:

1. of the 20, there were 19 that got names and 3 that got names but never ran. So in my sample you had an 80% chance of getting a runner.
2. the total purse money won so far is about $639,000, or about $40,000/runner (for $75,000 or $70,000 purchase price horses)
3. of the runners, 13 have a race or work in the last 60 days, and two are entered as longshots in this week’s Indiana Derby/Oaks.
4. of the 20, only 3 have earned more than their purchase price
5. only 5 of the 20 ran an Eqibase speed figure of 87 or better (roughly an 80 Beyer)

These are not very exciting results. Let’s remember that in addition to their purchase price the owners would have incurred $30,000 to $60,000 of training expenses, and paid out part of the purses to jockeys/trainers.

I also took a 20 horse sample starting at a $50,000 auction price. The resulst;

1. all 20 got a name, but only 14 (70%) ran a race
2. total purses were about $540,000
3. only 10 of the 20 show a race or work in the last 60 days
4. only 5 of the 20 earned their purchase price (before expenses)
5. only 3 of the 20 ran an Equibase figure of 87 or better

Given the lower purchase prices you can argue the returns were a little better for this group, but certainly not exciting.

In fact you might actually characterize the results as miserable or disastrous. You might argue my sample was to small. I only covered 20% of the horses sold in my 2 samples. Any of these horses could still be stars in their remaining races. Some of the fillies might have some residual value, or maybe some were claimed.

In a perfect world we would know the exact results for the entire sale, and the results for all previous sales. Instead these results are shrouded in mystery. I am sure dozens of bloodstock agents have these numbers, but the general public is left to guess or make their own calculations.

Maybe there were some pinhookers that made money, but not many owners made money from this sale.

Let’s look at one fancy horse by $40,000 new sire City of Light:

#255 – c – City of Light by Pleasant Mine, April 30 foal, B+ nick, 4/30 foal

The first dam in by AP Indy’s son Mineshaft, the 2nd dam in by Pleasant Tap, and the 3rd dam in by stamina influence The Minstrel.

Sneaky good mare. She ran in the Molly Pitcher

I have become more of a Quality Road (Lane’s End) fan, so I at least want to consider the City of Light offerings.

This guy sold for $170,000 to the strangely named PSS Stable. That is a fair price, and maybe a bargain. This would be out of my price range, but maybe was the way to go.

Here are my ideas from my top 10 sires:

1. #244 – Honor Code – Hard Spun mare, iffy, B nick, RNA $34,000
2. #277 – Tonalist – 2nd dam by Dynaformer, A++ nick, nick of Country Grammer, $35,000
3. #127 – Connect – 2nd dam produced Peace Rules, B+ nick, $135,000
4. #346 – Twirling Candy – 2nd dam by AP indy, D nick, RNA $72,000
5. #146 – Dialed In – Giant’s Causeway mare, A++ nick, $185,000
6. #290 – Unified – from Bob Ribaudo/Marc Keller mare Sotique, $55,000

There are some turf ideas in the July Fasig/Tipton sale worth thinking about:

1. #64 Funtastic – mare by Point of Entry, 2nd dam by Street Cry, C nick, withdrawn
2. #33 Mendelssohn – 2nd dam by Pleasant Colony, D nick, withdrawn
3. #42 Mendelssohn – Lemon Drop Kid mare, $185,000
4. #176 Mendelssohn – 2nd dam by Kingmambo, D nick, $85,000
5. #60 Good Samaritan – Rock Hard Ten dam, B+ nick, $47,000
6. #115 Good Samaritan – dam a granddaughter of Medaglia D’ Oro, $42,000
7. #58 Good Samaritan – Theatrical 2nd dam, withdrawn
8. #295 – We Miss Artie – great 2nd dam by Pleasant Tap., $110,000
9. #317 – Mizzen Mast – unusual idea, A nick, RNA $47,000
10. #97 – Long on Value – first foal a a Lemon Drop Kid mare, F nick, withdrawn

The Mendelssohn’s could be too expensive, his stud fee is $35,000

Rather than pick a new sire, I decided to pick a farm that I like. That led my to Airdrie Stud and their new sire, Collected. I was never a City Zip fan, but Collected did win at 1 and 1/4 miles, and has some decent Euro pedigree in his female family. Since both Cairo Prince and American Freedom (both stand at Airdrie Stud) are in my top 5, I thought I would give Collected a try.

I am glad I did. There are 13 in this sale.

Let’s hope the pinhookers focus on the spinters, and leave me the 2 turn horses

1. #138 – the mare by Creative Cause won twice at 1 1/2 miles, this is a first foal, but I will live dangerously, B nick (OUT BEFORE SALE)
2. #340 – mare is a full sister to Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch, a $65,000 weanling, B nick, $160,000
3. #103 – French mare by Arch, great 2nd dam, B nick, RNA $22,000
4. #19 – everything is better with a Bernardini mare, giant 2nd dam produced Film Maker, C+ nick, $100,000
5. #20 – decent Graham Motion mare by Hard Spun, C nick (OUT BEFORE SALE)
6. #78 – unraced Tapit mare, but a huge 2nd dam, She be Wild, risky, $80,000
7. #65 – risky Tapit mare, $55,000
8. #96 – average Tiznow mare, RNA $57,000
9. #56 – sprinter mare
10. #48 – shaky mare by Blugrass Cat
11. #73 – sprinter mare by Discreet Cat
12. #279 – more of a sprinter mare

Just to be complete let’s look at the other new Airdrie sire, McCraken a son of Ghostzapper

1. #125 – mare granddaughter of Galileo, marginal but OK, $45,000
2. #38 – Ok Emerald Downs mare, $95,000
3. #59 – sprinty mare

Let’s also glance at the Cairo Prince’s, not much to chose from:

1. #233 – mare was slow, but 2nd dam a solid Lemon Drop Kid, C+ nick (OUT BEFORE SALE)
2. #258 – iffy AP Indy mare, RNA $40,000
3. #245 – mare a little sprinty (OUT BEFORE SALE)

And the American Freedom’s:

1. #106 – great 2nd dam, B nick, $25,000
2. #134 – great 3rd dam, $70,000
3. #341 – magical El Prado 2nd dam, $37,000
4. #128 – sprinty dam
5. #294 sprinty dam
6. #240 – not much

Even the Creative Cause ideas:

1. #202 – Creative Cause – Street Sense mare, RNA $45,000
2. #108 – Creative Cause – 2nd dam by the magical el Prado, B+ nick, withdrawn

And one more:

1. #151 – The Factor – mare of Dream Shake, $120,000

The yearling season is about to begin with select group of 346 horses going on sale in Lexington on July 14th. These horses included 139 by new freshman sires. This is a strange group of horses. It seems the better pedigrees are found in the Keeneland sale in September. This seems like a sale designed for pinhookers that want to get a head start.

My problem is that I am not that excited by this group of new sires. My first thoughts were that I had a slight interest in:

1. Cloud Computing – combining Maclean’s Music and AP Indy, but I am quickly losing interest in the Maclean’s Music part of the story
2. Bolt D’ Oro – combining Medaglia D’ Oro and AP Indy can’t be bad, but these might be too popular (this is the “buzz” new sire)
3. Always Dreaming – I was never a real Bodemeister fan, so it is difficult to get to excited, but he did win the Derby
4. Mendelssohn – at $35,000 these are likely to be too expensive
5. Good Samaritan – maybe this is a decent $7,500 turf sire or is it a cheap knock-off of Into Mischief
6. City of Light – this could be my Lane’s End champion, but at $40,000 there will be few bargains
7. West Coast – another Lane’s End idea, but I am not a big Flatter fan
8. Accelerate – maybe this is my plodder champion, but I was never a Lookin at Lucky fan
9. Tapwrit – he did win the Belmont, but I really do not like the female family (Successful Appeal???)
10. Funtastic – he did win a G1 at 1 3/8 miles

Justify will be too expensive at $125,000, and I am prefer Connect to the $30,000 Good Magic.

Maybe I am just being a grumpy old man, but I still prefer last year’s top ten to any of these new sires.

It is difficult to keep track of all of the horses from last year’s sales. but I did have another big winner this weekend.

The crazy son of Bodemeister won a 7 furlong MSW turf race at Woodbine by 3 lengths and earned an Equibase fig of 99. He now has carrer earnings of $52,000 off a purchase price of just $20,000.

Here is the post I made last Spring when I “selected” him out of the Ocala sale:

Few sires could be more unpopular than Bodemeister. All his bad work over the past few years got him put on the boat to Turkey by Winstar Farms. Do they race horses in Turkey? Yet a very in depth article in the Thoroughbred Daily News (a must read in the breeding world) considered him a leading “value” sire in 2019. They gave some very solid reasons why mare owners should consider using Bodemeister. Bode’s top son Always Dreaming will have his children hit the sales next year. Again Bodemeister did not race at 2, and his children have not been that precocious.

Hip #589 was a Bodemsister by a Kittens Joy mare named Tipsy. Kitten’s Joy is certainly a source of stamina. Tipsy was a solid allowance runner earning a top Equibase speed figure of 95. Her first foal ran a decent 78 in her first maiden race. This is only her second foal to race. The second dam has produced three different graded stakes winners when bred to Kitten’s Joy. The 2nd dam’s sire was the great stamina influence Woodman.

With all that stamina his pedigree I would expect #589 to work 21.3 or 21.4, yet he stopped the clocks at 21.0. Only 10% of the 2 furlong workers went faster. I was ready to pay 5x for this guy, but the hammer dropped at $20,000. About 1.25x his 2019 stud fee, I do not know how to translate Turkish Lira into dollars, so I will use last year. I consider this the best “value” buy of my 20 horses at this sale.

The real world buyer is not West Point or Eclipse, it is Raffuela di Paola. Her son Santino has 10 career wins at Woodbine. He is a young guy of about 27, and has some interesting stuff on social media. This might be the the best horse the di Poala’s have ever bought. I have to give them credit for buying a very solid horse at a fantastic price.

If you came to a sale with $20,000 and walked away with this horse, you should be very proud of your accomplishment. Who needs Mark Casse, my favorite Canadian trainer has just became Santino di Poala. Oh Canada we stand on guard for thee. Sing it.

In the di Paola’s honor I officially name this horse:

Quixote’s Canadian

but before the sale he was given a real name of Bode’s Tipsy. Is Bode Baffert old enough to drink?

————————————————————

It is always fun to cheer for the little guy, and few are smaller than the di Paola family at Woodbine. It is hard to judge racing after the long layoff at Woodbine, but the surface it seems this could be a stakes quality horse. I missed betting him at 12-1. Let’s try to stay more organized.

I may well regret not buying a part of West Point’s yearling offering last year. I gave serious consideration to a son of Street Sense that has been named Brigadier General. I could have had 5% for about $20,000. WP paid $160,000, less than 3x the stud fee.

He was a yearling purchase at the Fasig-Tipton select sale for $160,000. This sale came before the main Keeneland sale last Fall. The female side of the pedigree brought Giant’s Causeway, Seeking the Gold, and AP Indy, but the nick was a D. The horse is 4×4 to Mr. Prospector, so maybe it is not surprising he is a precocious sprinter. I remember I liked the photo that WP presented.

Brigadier General finished a nice 2nd in a loaded MSW race at Churchill on Bashford Manor Day. He earned a solid 85 Eqibase figure for his effort.

Street Sense had a big day with Maxfield winning the Stephen Foster, and Zaajel being an upset winner of the Mother Goose.

Finished a bad 8th at FG in January.

Another horse I passed on was QF Seventy Five. He is a son Vancouver, that has now tried four times to break his maiden. It is interesting they tried him at 1 1/4 miles. It will fascinating to watch him develop.

Last race was in June, but is back working in January 2022.

It has been my goal to stay positive in writing this blog, but I have to call things as I see them.

It has been disappointing to watch the lack of patience shown by the major partnership groups. All of them have been quite willing to drop their expensive yearling purchases into claiming races very quickly. I would have expected more patience. I guess one test will be how successful these horses are after they are claimed. I will eventually have to go back and track each of these horses, but for now I am just expressing disappointment.

For example, on Friday, June 25th, the guys at Ten Strike dropped their highly touted $500,000 Into Mischief colt, Amazing Rocket, into a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill, and got him claimed. He finished a miserable 9th with the line “through after half”. This horse had been one the main horses in the infamous Cox/Crow Ten Strike podcast that laughed at horses bred with stamina.

Obviously Marshall Graham at Ten Strike is an experienced claiming owner, and knows exactly what he is doing. Brad Cox is famous for being “honest” with owners about expensive horses. Maybe the quick drop is good horsemanship. The buyer was trainer Chris Hartman for an experienced claiming group led by Joey Keith Davis. Let’s watch and see what happens.

Cox/Donegal also had a quick hook for their nice $95,000 son of Honor Code, losing Code Duello for a $50,000 tag at Fairgrounds to Richard Baltas and owner Keith Johnston.

And then just to add insult to injury, I noticed my favorite Centennial Farm had a $550,000 son of Ghostzapper in a $12,500 maiden claimer at Gulfstream. Not only did Ethos not win, he did not even get claimed. He has lifetime earnings of just $35,000. At least Centennial did give him 7 tries before dropping him to a claimer. This was a beautifully bred horse, but Centennial did get him at the Fasig-Tipton training sale rather than a yearling sale.

In all honesty, these quick drops make it less likely that I will invest in some of these partnerships. That is why I am writing this blog, to document how these partnerships actually conduct their business.

Let’s think about that group of sires with fees from $50,000 to $90,000. This is not usually a group I shop in, but maybe I am missing a value idea. My rank would be:

1. Street Sense $60,000 – avg 2020 yearling = $100,000
2. Candy Ride $75,000 – avg yearling = $150,000
3. Gun Runner $50,000 – avg yearling – $238,000
4. Kitten’s Joy $60,000 – avg yearling = $133,000
5. Ghostzapper – $85,000 – avg yearling $166,000
6. Constitution – $85,000 – avg yearling = $136,000
7. Nyquist – $75,000 – avg yearling = $162,000
8. More Than Ready $65,000 – avg yearling = $108,000
9. Speightstown $90,000 – avg yearling = $180,000

To me the clear leader here is Street Sense. He is a solid source of stamina and seems to be a little under-appreciated by the market judging by the average yearling price.

I was impressed by these yearling picks, any of which could be a solid value:

1. Mugged – c – Street Sense by The Factor – $140,000 – Centennial, not working
2. Brigadier General – c – Street Sense by Giant’s Causeway – $150,000 – West Point, 4 starts, one 2nd
3. Knot the One – c – Street Sense by Broken Vow $125,000 – Donegal, not working
4. Street Slayer – f – Street Sense by Ghostzapper – $210,000 – Victory Partners, 3 works at KE
5. Murray – c – Street Sense by Tiznow – $300,000 – Starlight, winner at Del Mar
6. Once a Giant – c – Street Sense by Vindication – $235,000 – Bill Parcells, 8 works at KE

My favorite is out of a full sister to $1,000,000 winner Daddy Nose Best, a Scat Daddy mare named Ananda. Ananda is a daughter of the great Thunder Gulch. This is a A+ nick. Could my choice have a higher return on investment than the expensive horses, let’s watch

1. Lord Shaftesbury – Street Sense by Scat Daddy – $35,000 – Clark Brewster, not working

Maybe a cheap Street Sense will be a good yearling this September, it is worth considering.

The clear second choice in my ranking of stud farms is the very interesting Airdrie Stud. This smaller operation has two of my top five sires, Cairo Prince and American Freedom.

Airdrie is the work of former Kentucky Governor Brereton Jones. They are located in Midway, Kentucky. There motto is “Think About It”. This group seems to be thinking “outside the box”. Who else has a sire (Preservationist) who did not break his maiden until he was 5 years old.

Cairo Prince is a son of Pioneerof the Nile who has a great run a lower priced sire that has produced great results. He has been a reasonable source of stamina and turf horses. The more I studied CP the more I liked him.

American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy through Pulpit. The female side of his pedigree brings in Pleasant Colony. AF could be the next CP.

Here is the Airdrie roster:

1. Cairo Prince – $15,000 by Pioneerof the Nile
2. Upstart – $10,000 by Flatter
3. Summer Front – $10,000 by War Front
4. Creative Cause – $7,500 by Giant’s Causeway
5. American Freedom – $5,000 by Pulpit
6. Include – $5,000 by Broad Brush
7. Collected – $17,500 by City Zip. entered 2019, weanlings sold well
8. Complexity $12,500 by Maclean’s Music, entered 2021
9. Preservationist – $10,000 by Arch, entered 2020
10. McCraken – $6,000 by Ghostzapper, entered 2019
11. Divisidero – $5,000 by Kitten’s Joy, entered 2020
12. Mark Valeski – sent to Arkansas 2020
13. Proud Citizen – deceased 2016

former Airdrie sires were Indian Charlie, Silver Hawk, Harlan’s Holiday, and Majesticperfection

This is an interesting group of sires. I think I will be a big fan of McCraken this year and Preservationist next year. Divisidero could be a very productive turf sire.

Let’s build a group of Airdrie Stud horses to cheer for:

1. Shad Nation – Cairo Prince by Medaglia d’ Oro – $80,000 – Liz Crow – really big 2nd dam, interesting pedigree
2. Speed Alley – Cairo Prince by Giant’s Causeway – $80,000 – Spedale Family, I really like this family as the buyer, strong pedigree
3. American Pure – c – American Freedom by Pure Prize – $40,000 – now Glasmans, strong dam
4. Amalgamator – c – American Freedom by First Tour – $100,000 – O’Connor – another flipped by a pinhooker
5. Frat Pack – c – Upstart – by Warrior’s Reward – $400,000 – Crow – a Liz Crow empty mare special, not what I would buy, but let’s watch
6. Trademark – c – Upstart by Creative Cause – $42,000 – BBN Racing – another double Airdrie horse, not many pedigrees I like with this sire
7. Dancin Dee – f – Creative Casue by Teofilo (Galileo) – $95,000 – Greathouse – lots of Euro pedigree
8. Loco – c – Creative Cause by Afleet Alex – $40,000 – Taproot – solid Alydar 2nd dam
9. xxxxxxxxxx – f – Summer Front – $250,000 – Steve Young – expensive SF, let’s watch
10. Run Curtis Run – c – Summer Front by Forest Wildcat – $45,000 – Sean Perl – nice NY bred
11. Truly Inclusive – f – Include by Shakespere -$12,000 – David Hix – Theatrical and Jade Hunter add stamina to the pedigree
12. xxxxxxxxxxxx – f – Include by Kitten’s Joy (Patricias Kitten) $6,000 – 2nd dam produced Divisidero

This will be another fun group to watch. I will pay more attention to Upstart and Creative Cause in the future.

I found that a good way to learn about soccer (a sport I knew nothing about), was to pick a team (I chose Liverpool) and cheer for them.

I am now officially a Lane’s End Farm supporter, and therefore against those evil guys from Winstar, Claiborne, and all the other stud farms.

Let’s build a group of horses by Lane’s End sires to follow:

1. Ganadora – f – Quality Road by Ghostzapper – $1,000,000 – Donato Lanni – the most expensive QR
2. Blackadder – c – Quality Road by Pulpit – $620,000 – Lanni/Starlight – my favorite expensive QR colt
3. Glider – c – Quality Road by Lemon Drop Kid – $200,000 – DJ Stable – maybe my favorite yearling, add Pleasant Colony as the second dam
4. Candy Cool – c – Candy Ride by Dixie Union – $575,000 – West Point – the magic of Dixieland Band mares
5. Egomania – c – Candy Ride by Street Sense – $200,000 – McElroy – let’s try a more bargain priced CR that adds stamina influence Street Sense
6. Demandsrespect – f – Union Rags by Candy Ride – $195,000 – First Row – a combination of two LE sires
7. Ravella – f – Liam’s Map by Tomahawk (Seattle Slew) – $140,000 – Mathisen Racing – let’s add some Seattle Slew blood to LM
8. xxxxxxx – f – Daredevil – Bluegrass Sunset by Hard Spun – $50,000 – Mongolian – a Dynaformer 2nd dam
9. Above Suspicion – f – Honor Code – Johannesburg – $210,000 – MyRaceHorse.com – one more HC
10. Dripping Gold – c – Lemon Drop Kid by Danzig- $80,000 – Woodford – last chance to find a LDK heir?
11. Striking Oil – c – Mineshaft by Ghostzapper – $95,000 – L&N – not many to choose from
12. Mrs Whistler – f – Tonalist by Candy Ride – $80,000 – MyRaceHorse.com – not many to choose from
13. Cody’s Express – c – Mr. Speaker by Harlan’s Holiday – $50,000 – Bucci – really good mare, a great test of this sire
14. Oakhurst – c – Mr. Speaker – $195,000 – Little Red Feather – almost bought part of this one
15. Noble Speaker – c – Mr. Speaker by El Prado – $17,000 – Dark Hollow – the magic of El Prado and Dynaformer, what a great pedigree, I might have bought this horse last year if I had been up to speed on Mr. Speaker as a sire last September.

This will be a fun group to follow. I already have over 20 LE horses in my top 100, I am just adding these for educational purposes

If you pointed a gun at me and forced me to buy a horse by a “super sire” (stud fee $100,000 or more) who would it be?

1. Medaglia d’ Oro – Darley
2. Curlin – Hill ‘N’ Dale
3. Quality Road – Lane’s End
4. Tapit – Gainsway
5. American Pharoah – Ashford
6. Uncle Mo – Ashford
7. War Front – Claiborne
8. Into Mischief – Spendthrift

I guess Medaglia d’ Oro is still my favorite. He just produces a nice looking “sleek” kind of horse (maybe because there is no Mr. Prospector in his pedigree). He is by far my favorite broodmare sire.

Curlin is the king of the plodders. How can you not love Vino Rosso, Keen Ice, Palace Malice and Exaggerator.

Quality Road is quickly becoming my favorite. I really like the Strawberry Road and Alydar contribution from the female side fo the pedigree. Until I really thought about Lane’s End and their commitment to stamina oriented breeding, I think I was missing the story here.

Tapit has had great results in recent years, but being 3×4 to Mr. Prospector is maybe not not exactly what I am looking for. This is still the best son of AP Indy, maybe I am being overly critical.

American Pharoah is the logical heir to Pioneerof the Nile, but I am not a fan of the Storm Cat on the female side. He has been getting decent turf runners, but the jury is still out. Midnight Storm and Cairo Prince might be just as good.

Uncle Mo will never warm my heart because I was never an Indian Charlie fan, and I never will be. There is a lot to like on the female side of this pedigree, but I cannot get past my mental picture of Indian Charlie.

War Front is a son of sprinter Danzig. Pass

Into Mischief is the controversial horse. He was a 7 furlong sprinter that has gotten way too many good mares because the industry is overly focused on precocious speedball two year olds. I hate Into Mischief with a special passion.

I will be cheering for Quality Road against the other super sires. I doubt I can afford one, but I can still cheer for them. Maybe if a partnership buys a QR, I will give it closer consideration.

There is a clear winner when I rank the stud farms.

1. Lane’s End – 9 of my top 20 sires
2. Airdrie – Cairo Prince and American Freedom – 2 of my top 10
3. Adena Springs – Point of Entry and Shaman Ghost – 2 of my top 10
4. Taylor Made – my #3 Midnight Storm
5. Darby Dan – my #8 Dialed In

What is surprising is the other big guys, Winstar, Darley, Hill ‘N’ Dale, Spendthrift, Gainsway, Ashford, and Claiborne are so far behind in a 7 way tie for 6th place.

My top rating for Lane’s End is purely “bottoms up”. My top 20 stallions listed has changed over the past year as I have judged the results of the sales I have watched. I guess since Lane’s End was the home of stamina king AP Indy, it is not surprising I landed here. I had not really thought about ranking farms until a week ago, when I realized how may of my top choices stood at Lane’s End.

Lane’s End Farm is the easy winner. Of my top 20 stallions, 9 stand at Lane’s End, and no other farm is even close. Their roster is:

1. Quality Road – $150,000
2. Candy Ride – $75,000
3. Union Rags – $40,000 – my #12
4. Twirling Candy – $40,000 – my #2
5. Liam’s Map – $30,000 – my #13
6. Daredevil – $25,000 – returned in 2021 from Turkey
7. Honor Code – $20,000 – my #1
8. Lemon Drop Kid – pensioned – my #18
9. The Factor – $17,500
10. Connect – $15,000 – my #6
11. Mineshaft $15,000
12. Tonalist – $12.500 – my #15
13. Unified – $10,000 – my #11
14. Mr. Speaker – $5,000 – my #19

I just can’t stop. 100 is not enough, I need 5 more. No idea is too crazy. After all the sales what did I forget?

1. Fly Me Home – Temple City – Fusaichi Pegasus – $120,000 – I have always been a Temple City fan, and Fu Peg is a great broodmare sire, 4 works
2. Cha – Mohaymen – Sadler’s Wells – $45,000 – Wesley Ward – Mohaymen is a son of Tapit in his first year, and the female family is stamina oriented, 3rd at Woodine
3. xxxxxxx – Noble Mission – Red Ransom $30,000 – Joe Graffeo – Noble Mission has been shipped to Japan, but let’s try one with a nice turf female family
4. Morning Thoughts – Air Force Blue – Dynaformer – $47,000 – Up Hill Stable – I love the Dynaformer mare even though the work was a little slow, 5th at Saratoga
5. xxxxxxx – Mo Tom – Offlee Wild (Arzella) – $12,000 – Mark Schwartz – The buyer is the guy who bought Brooklyn Strong last year, the 2nd dam was a $400,000 winner and produced a $600,000 winner. Let’s watch this one. Mo Tom is a stakes winning son of Uncle Mo. A Louisiana bred.

After the yearling sales in 2020 I did build a 12 horse group of these unloved sires. Let’s see how many have names. Ok, 9 of 12 have names.

1. Midshipman – Wow Me Free by Menifee – $17,000 – dam and 2nd dam were solid runners and producers. A+ nick, Harlan Free, ran two 40’s and quit
2. Will Take Charge – Berncredit – $37,000 – dam and 2nd dam were winners and G3 producers. A nick, Take the Backroads, winner of $65,000 at Saratoga, back working at FG
3. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai – $29,000 – 2nd dam ware $1 million earner, G1 winner, My Flag, B+ nick, Beautiful Pie, not working
4. Super Saver – Steidle by Petionville – $15,000 – 2nd dam producer of G1 winner Princess of Sylmar, A nick, no works since June
5. Bodemeister – Jax El by Unusual Heat – $20,000 dam and 2nd dam both G2 producers, B+ nick, Onhandsomedude, ran one 58 and retired
6. Mucho Macho Man – Marseillaise by Speightown – $20,000 – 2nd dam a G2 winner, B+ nick, Backatya, has won $40,000 and is a claimer at GP
7. Mineshaft – Taste’s Classylady by Afleet Alex – $30,0000 – Funky Munky Stable purchase, One Track Mind, 2nd at Belmont, back working at Belmont
8. Tiznow – Wynning is Sweet by Candy Ride – $40,000 – Don’t Tell My Wife Stable purchase, Miss Everything, has won $30,000 and was 2nd at Los Al
9. Looking At Lucky – Miss Sammy by Tale of Ekati – $25,000 Pewter Stable purchase, Luckywise, has won $7,000, working at IN
10. Lea – Fiercely by Hard Spun $40,000 – Al Rashid purchase, 2nd dam Dynaformer, Run Lea Run, won a $35,000 MC at Gulfstream, has won $20,000
11. Creative Cause – Robi Jo by Lemon Drop Kid – $21,000 – first and second dam’s are winners and producers, B+ nick, won a $16,000 MC at Tampa, has won $10,000, Vladislav
12. Bayern – Bridey’ Frolic by Unbridled Song – $21,000 – 2nd dam $300,000 winner and producer, Mi Crescendo, not working

This is what you find at the bottom (Kentucky only):

1. Air Force Blue – $10,000 – willing to consider
2. Flintshire – $10,000 – hanging on by a thread
3. Jimmy Creed – $10,000 – sprinter
4. Karakontie – $10,000 – maybe I should know more
5. Klimt – $10,000 – willing to consider
6. Lord Nelson – $10,000 – sprinter
7. Runhappy – $10,000 – sprinter
8. Speightster – $10,000 – mainly a sprinter
9. Summer Front – $10,000 – not many to choose from
10. Tapiture – $10,000 – solid, but not exciting
11. Tonalist – $10,000 – beginning to loose faith
12. Unified – $10,000 – willing to consider
13. Upstart – $10,000 – beginning to loose faith
14. Astern – $7,500 – could be a good surprise
15. Bayern – $7,500 – no longer interested
16. Carpe Diem – $7,500 no longer intrested
17. Congrats – $7,500 – never a fan
18. Creative Casue – $7,500 – have lost interest
19. Cross Traffic – $7,500 – no many available
20. Midnight Storm – $7,500 – one of my favorites
21. Midshipman – $7,500 – always willing to consider
22. Mizzen Mast – $7,500 – not many available
23. Mohaymen – $7,500 – willing to consider
24. Mshawish – $7,500 – losing interest
25. Mucho Macho Man – $7,500 – little interest
26. Oxbow – $7,500 – no interest
27. Jack Milton – $6,500 – small interest
28. American Freedom – $6,000 – my second favorite AP Indy
29. Anchor Down – $5,000 – small interest
30. Big Blue Kitten – $5,000 – not giving up
31. Brody’s Cause – $5,000 have lost interest
32. Cinco Charlie – $5,000 – sprinter
33. Cupid – $5,000 – have been gaining interest
34. Fast Anna – $5,000 – sprinter
35. Fed Biz – $5,000 – sprinter
36. Gormley – $5,000 – very interested
37. Ironicus – $5,000 – Helium has kept my interest
38. Lea – $5,000 – maybe a good value play
39. Mr. Speaker – $5,000 – maybe ok on turf
40. Temple City – $5,000 – still interested
41. Tourist – $5,000 – giving up
42. Will Take Charge – $5,00 – not many to choose from

Maybe I have missed some of these.

Out of business:

1. Animal Kingdom – in Japan
2. Arrogate – deceased
3. Awesome Again – deceased
4. Bodemeister – in Turkey
5. California Chrome – in Japan
6. Declaration of War – in Japan
7. Empire Maker – deceased
8. Lemon Drop Kid – pensioned
9. Noble Mission – in Japan
10. Orb – Private ???
11. Overanalyze – in Korea
12. Point of Entry – in Canada
13. Pioneerof the Nile – deceased
14. Super Saver – in Turkey
15. Tiznow – pensioned
16. Vancouver – in Australia
17. Wicked Strong – in Penn.

Maybe there is a strategy that finds value in these sires that have been demoted. Since I am preparing for future sales, I have tended to ignore these horses, but the strategy could still be viable

I think this a reasonable way to review sires, so let’s look at the next group of sires.

$20,000, but more than $10,000

1. Honor Code – $20,000 – my top sire
2. Looking at Lucky – $20,000 – only one over $25,000 at KEE
3. Maclean’s Music – $20,000 – beginning to loose interest
4. Palace Malice – $20,000 – only one over $25,000 at KEE
5. Classic Empire – $17,500 – already a problem?
6. The Factor – $17,500 – none at KEE
7. Cairo Prince – $15,000 – this is his year
8. Connect – $15,000 – one of my favorites
9. Dialed In – $15,000 – excellant choice
10. Exaggerator – $15,000 – ultimate plodder
11. First Samurai – $15,000 – more of a sprinter, maybe I am missing out
12. Goldencents – $15,000 – sprinter
13. Midnight Lute – $15,000 – sprinter
14. Mineshaft – $15,000 – only one >$35,000 at KEE
15. Outwork – $15,000 – sprinter
16. Street Boss – $15,000 – sprinter
17. Take Charge Indy – $15,000 – none at KEE
18. Keen Ice – $12,500 – not many mares that I liked
19. Sky Mesa – $12,500 – none over $5,000 at KEE

This group is a mixed bag. Maybe I should be more of a First Samurai fan, I will watch Zilla’s big buy. Maybe I should be a value buyer of Mineshaft, I will watch Funky Munky’s purchase.

In the previous post I looked at the top 20 most expensive sires. In my effort to find great “values” these are sires I usually ignore. I am going to let the “cool kids” buy these horses.

But what about the next 20? Am I overlooking values in those “mid-range” sires?

These are all the stud fee less than $50,000, but greater than $20,000

1. Munnings – $40,000 – to me just a sprinter, but Liz Crow does like him
2. Not This Time – $40,000 – can he be more than just precocious?
3. Twirling Candy – $40,000 – my favorite mid-range sire
4. Bernardini – $35,000 – Honor Code is still my favorite AP indy
5. Flatter – $35,000 – Honor Code is still my favorite AP Indy
6. Hard Spun – $35,000 – getting some decent turf horses in his old age
7. Malibu Moon – $35,000 – is he becoming a value here? maybe?
8. Blame – $35,000 – could be a great value at this price
9. Kantharos – $30,000 – still mainly a sprinter
10. Liam’s Map – $30,000 – the success of Colonel Liam makes me reconsider
11. Union Rags – $30,000 – the unicorn I am trying to replicate
12. English Channel – $27,500 – concerned about lack of size
13. Broken Vow – $25,000 – just not that exciting
14. Frosted – $25,000 – maybe a great value, or maybe a failure
15. Laoban – $25,000 – to me just a sprinter
16. Mastery – $25,000 – maybe being overlooked
17. Violence – $25,000 – not sure about two turn ability
18. Practical Joke – $22,500 – maybe just a sprinter

When I think about this group my first conclusion is that I might have overlooked Liam’s Map.

We should be looking to find the logical heir to Unbridled Song in an effort to recreate Arrogate. Our only other choices are Midshipman, Will Take Charge, Cross Traffic, and Graydar, none of which is very attractive.

What Liam’s Map did I miss at the yearling sales?

Liam’s Map – Pastel Gal by Lemon Drop Kid – $160,000

When in doubt at some Lemon Drop Kid to the pedigree. So I added this horse to the “Miscellaneous” group at the bottom of my top 100 group.

I thought about adding a Broken Vow, but there were not many to choose from.

Maybe as a value guy I should have more than 2 Frosted’s, but with all the great mares he was bred to I remain concerned by the lack of results. Maybe that is being too critical.

I have presented my plodder/plodder top 100, but there are some more speed oriented names on that list. I also just presented a group of 20 more conventional choices that feature more precocious sires.

What is missing?

How about some horses from the expensive sires? I think this creates some problems. Trying to stay within a budget and buy horses from expensive sires is in my opinion a prescription for disaster.

I would much rather spend $200,000 on a son of Cupid (stud fee $5,000) than spend “only” $200,000 on a son of Tapit. A son of Tapit for $200,000 screams “problem horse”. I would rather hammer a rusty nail through my hand than buy a $200,000 Tapit. One of the best bet against’s at the race track are cheap sale priced offspring of fancy sires.

With that being said, let’s at least think about these horses.

Expensive Sires:

1. Into Mischief $225,000
2. Tapit $185,000
3. Curlin $175,000
4. Uncle Mo $175,000
5. Medaglia d’ Oro $150,000
6. Quality Road $150,000
7. War Front $150,000
8. American Pharoah $100,000
9. Speightstown $90,000
10. Constitution $85,000
11. Ghostzapper $85,000
12. Candy Ride $75,000
13. Nyquist $75,000
14. More Than Ready $65,000
15. Kitten’s Joy $60,000
16. Street Sense $60,000
17. Gun Runner $50,000
18. Distorted Humor
19. Arrogate
20. Pioneerof the Nile

The question is where should I set my budget? I think $100,000 would be too low, and $300,000 would be too high. So let’s try to find the best horse for each of these sires at $200,000 or less. I will shop again at the Keeneland yearling sale. I certainly trust fancy sires at two year old in training sales even less.

Here I will have to choose more “empty” mares, but I will still try to add some stamina just to keep the price down. Let’s see what happens:

1. Inalattetrouble – f – Into Mischief – Tiznow – $195,000 – MyRacehorse.com
2. Sebago Lake – f – Tapit – Giant’s Causeway – $160,000 – Diamond Creek
3. Mystical Journey – f – Curlin – Stormy Atlantic – $200,000 – Red Oak
4. Northern Aurora – c – Uncle Mo – Lemon Drop Kid – $210,000 – Atlas
5. Ha’ Penny – Medaglia d’ Oro – f – Uncle Mo – $50,000 – DJ Stable
6. Glider – c – Quality Road – Lemon Drop Kid – $200,000 – DJ Stable
7. Safra – f – War Front – Galileo – $200,000 – Lean On Me
8. Simms – c – American Pharoah – Sadler’s Wells – $100,000 – DJ Stable
9. Von Trapp – c – Speightstown – Marypop (FR) – $150,000 – Starlight
10. Jargon – c – Constitution – Street Cry – $130,000 – Steve Carr
11. Snip – f – Ghostzapper – Tapit – $260,000 – Mayberry
12. Desert Ruler – c – Candy ride – Rubiano – $90,000 – Dan Pita
13. xxxxxxxxxxx – f – Nyquist – Giant’s Causeway – $200,000 – Zilla Racing
14. I Was Born Ready – c – More Than Ready – $100,000 – DJ Stable
15. Bayraq – c – Kitten’s Joy – Zamindar – $120,000 – Shadwell
16. Sandstone – f – Street Sense – Seattle Slew – Ken McPeek
17. Pistol – f – Gun Runner – Wildcat Heir – $100,000 Eclipse
18. Gooch Go Bragh – c – Distorted Humor – Giant’s Causeway – $130,000 – Donegal
19. Wave Theory – f – Arrogate – Smart Strike – $200,000 – JCM
20. Tarot Card – f – Pioneerof the Nile – Malibu Moon – $110,000 – DJ Stable

Maybe this is a viable strategy, but I doubt it. Let’s see how it works out

What if I tried to build a portfolio that was not based on my plodder/plodder strategy?

Let’s try for a more speed oriented group of horses. The sires will be more speed leaning and the mares will not need to add stamina.

The first 13 are Keeneland yearlings, the last 7 are Ocala two year olds in training. We are shooting for about a $100,000 average.

Either the nick ratings are above average, or the buyer is a smart guy.

1. Dunvegan Doll – Liam’s Map – Malibu Moon – $60,000 – Ken McPeak – A++ nick
2. His Time – Not This Time – Candy Ride – $220,000 – John Oxley – C
3. Sacred Beauty – Classic Empire – Pulpit – $80,000 – MyRacehorse.com – D
4. Gaels Pride – Mastery – Harlan’s Holiday – $80,000 – Mark Glatt – B
5. Sugar Smile – Runhappy – Malibu Moon – $20,000 – Pewter Stable – A
6. Tiz Flawless – Munnings – Tiz Wonderful – $30,000 – BSW/Crow – D
7. Kupuna – Hard Spun – Malibu Moon – $140,000 – W. Sanders, A+
8. Out Dancing – Outwork – Gulch – $160,000 – Lieblong – A++
9. Bourbon Heist – Practical Joke – Elusive Quality – $100,000 – McMahon – A+
10. Disco Queen – Unified – Empire Maker – $30,000 – Ken McPeek – A++
11. Seize the Market – Carpe Diem – Marquetry – $140,000 – Platts – A+
12. Newgrange – Violence – Empire Maker – $125,000 – Starlight – A++
13. Benedict Canyon – Midnight Lute – Medalist – $60,000 – Nick Hines – A+
14. xxxxxxxxxx – First Samurai – El Corredor – $200,000 Zilla Racing – D
15. xxxxxxxxxx -Kantharos – Thunder Gulch – $70,000 – Perl Blood. – B+
16. xxxxxxxxxx- Lord Nelson – Honour and Glory – $75,000 Riaput – A++
17. xxxxxxxxxx – Upstart – Blame – $275,000 – McGaughey – A
18. xxxxxxxxxx – Speightster – Tiz Wonderful – $70,000 – Bona Venture Stable – D
19. xxxxxxxxxx- Daredevil – Hard Spun – $50,000 – Mongolian Stable – A++
20. xxxxxxxxxx – Jimmy Creed – Stormy Atlantic – $50,000 – Eclipse – A++

I am sure there are many folks who would prefer this portfolio. All of these horses are more precocious than 90% of my top 100. They might win a race at Del Mar or Saratoga.

To me you get higher quality mares when you buy “plodder” types, but none of the horses above have terrible female families.

Maybe this is a better way to buy horses. I don’t think so, but it is worth considering. Perhaps I should a least think about these horses before passing. I am fascinated by #15.

Kantharos was a pure sprinter who won the Bashford Manor and the Saratoga Special, and was retired with an injury before he ever tried two turns. He produced pure sprinters XY Jet and World of Trouble, As a son of Lion Heart he is really best summarized as the great-great- grandson of Storm Cat.

The mare (Queen Dido) is a daughter of the great Thunder Gulch. She ran briefly on the California Fair circuit and never had the chance to try a real track. She did run a 86 Equibase figure, so she was not completely horrible. Her mom was a French bred horse that came to America and got 2nd in the Barbara Fritchie. Queen Dido has produced 6 solid race horses, including a 2nd place finisher in the Washington Oaks at Emerald. The nick is rated B+, and is the same as Cowan, a decent horse for Asmussen. Maybe the mix of Kantharos and a pure stamina horse is a good idea. The buyer was Seth Perl, who sometimes buys for Mike Dubb. This will be an interesting horse to watch.

Here are 100 two year old’s of 2021 that I will be watching for the next several years:

1. 40 horses that I selected as yearlings in 2020
2. 40 horses that I selected from two year olds in training sales this Spring
3. 10 more expensive horses that I selected as yearlings to compete with the partnership horses
4. 10 miscellaneous yearlings that were a little above my price range

Can I find a Kentucky Derby/Oaks horse? Can I find a Grade 1 winner? The pressure is on after last year’s success with Brooklyn Strong and Dream Shake.

These are mainly plodder/plodder selections, but there is some speed mixed in. 95% are my own selections and a few are selections of partnerships.

Yearlings

1. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. I think the sire in undervalued, and the dam is exactly what I am looking for. The nick is A+. This horse moved to the top of my list after talking to the Centennial folks about Honor Code. Buyer = S. Schwartz, unnamed, was entered in Ocala March, named PV Renegade, 4 slow works at Camden
2. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick, – My favorite freshman sire is Midnight Storm. He was durable, and was a source of stamina on dirt and turf. The dam and 2nd dam were solid producers, and the 2nd dam was by Hansel. The late birthday keeps the pinhookers away. buyer = John Davison, named Ghostly Night, not working,
3. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000 – A++ nick, – The more I thought about, the more I like the idea of LDK. He is the ultimate old, boring sire. The mare was a solid runner, and produced two million dollar winners, including freshman sire American Freedom. buyer = Black Stone Farm, named Lemon Last, not working
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – c – 4/11. $100,000 – I though Classic Empire would be too expensive, but this one is too good to pass up. The mare by the great Kingmambo was 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, and the 2nd dam is by the stamina sire Strawberry Road. The nick is a D, but I just have to try this stamina combination. Buyer = John Oxley, named Classic King, 3 works, now not working
5. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Academy – c – 5/7 – $65,000 – A++ nick, – The dam was multiple graded stakes placed, and produced a graded winner by Dynaformer. Lots of fancy Euro-pedigree in the 2nd dam. My favorite turf horse. named Lahania Flavor, no works
6. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000 – Cairo Prince produced some good horses from below average mares. Now he is getting better mares, like this one that was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. The 2nd dam won 4 grade 1’s, and $965,000. The nick is a A. buyer = Al Fried, named The Prince’s Spur, 6 works, never started
7. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000 – B+ nick – Gormley is my favorite new speed sire. The dam produced 6 solid runners from 7 foals, and is by top broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. buyer = 5 O’Clock Somewhere, Rikio, working at Turfway
8. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick. The mix of an AP Indy sire with a Storm Cat mare is classic breeding. The 2nd dam in multiple G1 winner Lazy Slusan. Taking advantage of Bernardini falling “out of favor”, buyer = Jerry Romans, named Sultry Lass, 2 works at CD, not working
9. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – c – 2/4, $120,000 – A nick, This is the best idea from any partnership. I was very close to buying 5% from West Point. Connect is an interesting freshman sire (a son of Curlin) and Vindication adds Seattle Slew blood. This is the same cross as Exaggerator. buyer = West Point, named Derecho Dandy, 4th at Del Mar, winner at SA, 2 failed stakes tries
10. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000 – B+ nick, – This is my second best turf horse. Bernardini is a top quality broodmare sire and the second dam was an amazing stamina producer by Affirmed. Buyer = WSS Racing, named Blazing Summer, winner at Ellis, no works since

Second 10, a little more speed, a little less stamina:

1. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000 – nick C+ – Unified is more of a miler (a son of Candy Ride), but we add plenty stamina on the dam side, unraced AP Indy mare, but the 2nd dam was $1,000,000 winner of the Personal Ensign, Balletto, and the 3rd and 4th dams were graded winners. This is a Cox/Crow type of horse. named Majority Partner, working at Palm Meadows
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000, nick D – This is my attempt to recreate Union Rags. Their is bunch of stamina pedigree in the 2nd dam by G3 placed daughter of Dynaformer. Mare won a small stake at Santa Anita, and produced a G3 placed winner of $200,000. named Golden Gal, no works
3. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker – c – 2/19 – $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick – There is lots of stamina pedigree (Nureyev and Alleged) in the dam. Donegal gave him a nice write up. Great “heart score”, named Tricolour, 7 works at DD, 3 MC losses at Fairgrounds
4. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – f – 2/27- $75,000 – A+ nick, – The dam won $100,000. The 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch is a sister to Spain. The same cross as Free Drop Billy, named Majestic Union, 3rd at Indiana
5. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – c – 1/26 – $80,000 – The nick is an A. This is another Union Rags attempt, the dam was a solid distance horse, and the 2nd dam produced $1,000,000 router Macho Again. He’s No Joke, 2 works at GP
6. Connect – Happy Clapper – $50,000, A++ nick, 3/12 – Dam won $200,000 and produced a $100,000 winner, 2nd dam by Cozzene, Echo in Eternity, 2 works, not working
7. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – f – 4/12 – $100,000 – nick C – Mare won at Delaware. The second dam by Pleasant Colony is the producer of Tonalist. Frosted was “on sale”. named Ice Cold Gold, 6 work in Florida, MC at Santa Anita
8. Tonalist –Holiday Girl by Harlan’s Holiday – $42,000, 3/17 – nick A++ – This is a Liz Crow idea. Mare is a $100,000 winner and producer of two $100,000 winners. Same Cross as Tonalist’s Shape. Here and Nofurther, 5th in Indiana, not working
9. Tapiture – Sotique by Hennessy – $60,000 – 2/4 – nick B+ – The mare made $150,000 for Mark Kellar, who has bought some good stamina horses, Lady Pele, not working, working at Tampa
10. Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – c – 4/27 – $27,000 – nick A – Bought by Antonio Sano who also bought another Dialed In colt named Guenavara. Mitico, 5 works, 3rd at GP

Just for fun let’s also do a group of 20 that averages $30,000, but goes no higher than $40,000. This might be a more realistic price point for a first time buyer.

1. Point of Entry – Jazz Dancer by Dixieland Band -$15,000 – nick A – 2nd dam won $800,000 and two G1 races., named Ribot’s Valentine, working at Belmont, winner at Aqueduct
2. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado – f – 4/5, $24,000 – American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy. I love the stamina pedigree of the dam. The 2nd dam was runner up in the Personal Ensign. The nick is an A. buyer = Cool Hill Farm, named Moudhi, purchased for $75,000 in Ocala, no works
3. Gormley – Beautifulballerina by Nureyev – 4/23 – $33,000 – nick A++ – Second dam by Affirmed. Adding maximum stamina to Gormley with this dam. I’m No Ballerina, 6 works, not working
4. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- 2/10 -$29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag, dam produced $300,000 winner, B+ nick, My favorite from my “dirty dozen” out of favor sires. named Beautiful Pie, not working
5. Midnight Storm – Soft Wind by Flatter – 4/3 – $35,000 – A++ nick – First and second dam were winners and producers. Adding AP Indy for stamina, named Duke of Edinburgh, purchased for $140,000 at Ocala by Marylou Whitney, 8th at Saratoga, 3 races and done
6. Midnight Storm – Miss Montreal – $39,000 – 2/6 – nick B+ – sneaky good mare that ran 111 eqibase fig going a mile on the turf at Gulfstream. Ex Indiana QB Antowne Randal El is the buyer., named Miss Midnight, 5th at Colonial, 2nd at Charlestown
7. Shaman’s Ghost – Guanahani by Pleasant Tap – 4/30 – $25,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced two winners. New sire with lots of stamina added to a stamina mare. The ultimate plodder/plodder., named Shaman’s Prodigy, 7 works at GG, 3rd at GG
8. Honor Code – Big Move – $27,000 -2/18 – Mare won $150,000 and is a granddaughter of Dynaformer. This horse might go 2 miles!, named Melik Shakh, not working
9. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40,000 – A++ nick – Mare produced two $300,000 winners., Canisy, 3 works at SAR
10. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance by Danehill – c – 4/18 – $35,000 – Ironhorse – A very solid Danehill mare. She was G3 placed and produced a $400,000 winner. named Maintainer, working at Tampa
11. Keen Ice – Peace Price – $37,000 – B+ nick – Dam produced a $300,000 winner that finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes. named Ballykeen, working at Turfway
12. American Freedom – Never Quicker by Hennessy – c – 2/10 – $37,000 – nick A – Classic cross of AP Indy and Storm Cat. Mare was a winner and produced a $200,000 winner., named Sonnyisnotsofunny, Winner at Ellis, 84 Eqibase for Maker, fading at Oaklawn
13. Orb – Brusquer by Elusive Quality – $17,000 – 2/6 – nick A++ – Dam was a winner, 2nd dam produced Tapit, 3rd dam by Nijinsky. Travis Murphy takes a shot. named Alia Max, already has a win at PM with a 73 Equibase, not working, done in May
14. Classic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt. named Libyan Classic, not working
15. Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief – $20,000 – B+ nick – Dam by won $100,000 and produced a $140,000 winner. 2nd dam by Dynaformer, 3rd dam by Affirmed, how much more stamina can you get?, named Kukaro, 3 works at BEL
16. Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok, $30,000, Hoppel’s Horse, A++ nick dam won $60,000, and produced a $300,000 graded stakes winner. named Spun Beautiful, bought by West Point in Ocala for $140,000, 7 works at Los Al, 7th at SA
17. Maclean’s Music – Reggae Rose – $20,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced a $500,000 winner, 2nd dam by Dynaformer produced a $300,000 winner, named Late Nite Music, not working, working at Houston
18. Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch -$21,000 – 2/20 – nick A – Maybe Astern can be stretched of if you add Thunder Gulch. Mare was a winner and producer. Unnamed, RNA $19,000 at Ocala, She’s Like Thunder, 2 thirds at Colonial, not working
19. Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – 2/11 – $15,000 – Same cross as Exaggerator, 2nd dam won 800,000 and multiple graded races., named Pankrat, no works
20. Anchor Down – Lemon Secretary by Lemon Drop Kid – 3/8 – $10,000 – nick B+ – Dam produced an $80,000 winner that was graded stakes placed, and the 2nd dam is full sister to stamina sire Perfect Soul., unnamed

Two. Year Olds in Training

From Ocala April:

1. Air Force Blue – c – Rendezvous Point by Kingmambo – $85,000 – Double O Racing, Mid Atlantic, 2 works
2. Honor Code – c – Anabaa’s Creation by Anabaa – $55,000 – Peter Miller, Respect the Code, winner at Del Mar, no works since August
3. Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado– c – $75,000 – Lewis Lakin, First Son’s, not working
4. Twirling Candy – f – Breaking Promises by Broken Vow – $125,000 – Barry Schwartz, Sweet Lies, 6th at BEL
5. Shaman Ghost – c – Apology Accepted – $65,000 – Tom Kagele, Forgiving Spirit, 6th at DelMar, no works since August
6. Classic Empire – f – Tango Time by Danehill – $100,000 – Eric Long, Scent of Royalty, 8 works, now not working
7. Twirling Candy – c – #206 – $65,000 – Scott McDermott, Snow Candy, 4th at Saratoga, MC at Fairgrounds
8. Unified – f – Black Escort by Southern Halo– $55,000 – Edge Racing, Halofied, 6 works at BEL, not working
9. Exaggerator – f – Polly Alexander by Foxhound – $75,000 – Gayle Van Leer, Polly’s Song, 3 works at LD, not working
10. Connect – f – Grand Style by Giant’s Causeway – $125,000 – Steve Young, unnamed
11. Honor Code – f – Maracuya by Big Brown – $23,000 – P&G Stables, Parchita, 3 works, not working
12. Astern – c – Gigahertz by Dynaformer – $47,000 – Twin Sports Racing, Hashtag No Wonder, 4th at GP, MC at Gulfstream
13. Gormley – f – Lady Dora by Lord at War – $11,000 – Gaylon McGee, Izeamalibumoon, not working
14. Midnight Storm – c – Tres Hermanas by Curlin – $45,000 – Mike Pender, Midnight Metal, 5 works, not working
15. Noble Mission – f – Style Show by Red Ransom – $30,000 – Joe Graffeo, Designed to Dazzle, 2nd at GP, MC at Gulfstream
16. Mastery – c – Limonar by Street Cry – $17,000 – George Weaver, Pipito, entered at Saratoga, 4th at BEL, MC at Aqueduct
17. Cairo Prince – f – Sing Lady Sing by Scat Daddy – $37,000 – Ted Barlas, Princess Elin, 3 works, not working, winner at Tampa at 40-1
18. Violence – f – Poly One Flex by Giant’s Causeway – $30,000 – Gayle Van Leer, Violet Storm, 5th at Del Mar, nothing since August
19. Frosted – c – Star Stream by Awesome Again – $30,000 – Rodolfo Garcia – Frosted Armour, 2nd at Gulfstream, claimer
20. Klimt – c – Very Very by Royal Academy – $30,000 – Cammarota Racing, Barone Cesco, win at Saratoga for Sano, small stakes losses
21. Flintshire – f – Everdeen by Lemon Drop Kid– $20,000 – Ballybrit – Tracker Jacker, 2 works, not working, working at Tampa
22. Cairo Prince – c – Smart n’ Special by Smart Strike – $335,000 – John Ballantyne, Setna the Wise, 2 works, not working, working at Fairgrounds
23. Dialed In – Shine Softly – Aldebaran – $220,000 – J. Stevens, Peaceful Waters, 6 works at CD, MSW winner at Fairgrounds

From Gulfstream:

1. Malibu Moon – Noble Ready by More Than Ready – c – #184 – $270,000 – Live Oak, named Souper Royal Moon, 7 works, MSW winner at Parx

From Ocala March:

1. #195 – f – Lea – Sassy’s Dream by Flower Alley – 3/14 foal – $20,000 – SAB Stable, named Samurai Steph, not working
2. #179 – c – Shaman Ghost – Repossee by Officer – foaled 5/9 – $45,000 – DJ Stable,  Grave Danger, 5 works at GP, not working
3. #448 – c – Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo, 3/23 foal – $120,000 – Kim Valerio, Raghadan, not working
4. #461 – c – American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000 – Larry Hirsch – named One America, not working

From Timonium:

1. Unified – c – Rare Medal by Medaglia d’Oro – $150,000 – Mike McCarty, Combat Medal, 5 works, 7th at KE, DNF at Oaklawn
2. Cairo Prince – f – Irish Connection $40,000 – BSW/Crow, unnamed
3. Connect – f – Halljoy (IRE) by Halling – $35,000 – Brett Viers, Halligirl, winner at PRX
4. Violence – f – Three Degrees Mon by Maria’s Mon – $95,000 – Robert H Zoellner, Sophie Grace, 5th at CD, not working

From Texas:

1. Mr. Speaker – f – Red Hot Tops by Arch, $40,000, Dan Bates, Red Hot Moon, winner at LS, 54 equibase, working in Houston
2. Lea – c – Crema d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, $28,000, Mark Allen, Shamayim, 3rd at RP, winner at RP
3. Dialed In – f – Hard Ten Hopping , by Rock Hard Ten, $27,000, Tom Galvin, Dial Ten for G, two races at LS, not working, MC at Fairgrounds

From Ocala – June:

1. Connect – f – CJ’s Gal by Awesome Again, A++ nick, 3/18 – Hidden Brook, $85,000, Hidden Connection, winner of G3 Pocahontas at CD, working at Fairgrounds
2. Midnight Storm – c – Lavender Sky by Mt Livermore, C+ nick, 5/22 – Dragon Squared, $50,000, Upper Level, not working, working
3. American Freedom – f – Coulee by Vicar, A+ nick, 1/19 – Landon Jordan, $55,000, unnamed
4. Blame – c – La Laja by El Prado, A+ nick, 2/13 – David Donk, $135,000. La Culpa, 3 works at BEL, not working
5. Unified – c – Andele by Bernardini, A nick. 2/12, Wayne Spalding, $19,000, Speedy G, working, 6th MSW Fairgrounds

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Expensive Yearlings:

1. Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000, Mayfair Man, no works
2. Arrogate – Star Act by Street Cry – $350,000, Oglethorpe, 5 works, not working
3. Union Rags – Giant Mover by Giant’s Causeway – $350,000, Bold Courage, 6 works, not working
4. Pioneerof the Nile – Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy – $625,000, Presidential, winner at Indiana, 5th in Lecomte
5. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike – $260,000, Videri, 3 works, not working, working in Florida
6. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda by Malibu Moon – $250,000, Skylerville, winner at Woodbine, working
7. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200,000, Mazuma, working KE, 4th at Fairgrounds
8. Curlin – Isabella Sings – $350,000, Sweeping Giant, 2nd at Saratoga, nothing since November
9. Union Rags – Mr Short Fuze, $650,000, Carbonite, two 3rds at Del Mar, nothing since October
10. Street Sense – Mia and Molly, $150,000, Brigadier General, 2nd at Churchill, bad in MSW at Fairgrounds

Miscellaneous:

1. Air Force Blue – c – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000 – Tuskegee Cat, 4th at CD, MSW at SA
2. Midnight Storm – Tasunke by Indian Charlie – $180,000, Swing Shift, not working, working in Florida
3. Gormley – The Best Option – $140,000 – Camargo, 6 works, one start at KE, MC at Oaklawn
4. Honor Code – f – Often by Galileo – $120,000 – Determined Star, 4th at Colonial, winner at LRL, nothing since December
5. Gormley – Soul of Fashion by Sadler’s Wells – $115,000 – Hey High Pockets, 2nd at Gulfstream, nothing since August
6. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat, $150,000, Portsmouth, 4th at DM, working at OP
7. Liam’s Map – Pastel Gal by Lemon Drop Kid – $160,000, unnamed
8. Violence – Lemon Belle by Lemon Drop Kid, $125,000, Nasty Habit, working at CD, not working
9. Mastery – Ceeme Run Wild – $20,000 – Sophisticated, 5 works at Belterra
10. Gormley – Lady Siphonica by Siphon, $20,000 – Maya’s Wish, 1 start at Delta, nothing since October

This is my stallion ranking before two year old racing starts in a big way. These are my best “value” sires and is my first thought of what yearlings I will be looking for. The number at the end each line is how many are in my top 100.

Stud fees of $40,000 or less.

1. Honor Code (trying to recreate Honor AP), 6
2. Twirling Candy (will Rombauer and Dream Shake make him too popular?), 3
3. Midnight Storm (maybe too popular at the sales?), 5
4. Cairo Prince (getting better mares), 3
5. Point of Entry (the heir to Dynaformer?), 2
6. Connect (a cheap Curlin?), 5
7. American Freedom (AP Indy + Pleasant Colony), 4
8. Gormley (a quicker Malibu Moon?), 4
9. Dialed In (still a value), 2
10. Shaman Ghost (not in anyone else’s top 10), 2
11. Unified (can he be more than a miler?, the Centennial influence), 4
12. Union Rags (still the unicorn),3
13. Liam’s Map (Colonel Liam is the story), 1
14. Classic Empire (did not sell as well as expected), 2
15. Tonalist (still some hope), 1
16. Frosted (are we giving up too soon?), 2
17. Mr. Speaker (decent turf horses), 1
18. Lemon Drop Kid (the last crops), 1
19. Temple City (falling behind Point of Entry), 0
20. Air Force Blue (not giving up yet), 3
21. Summer Front (not many to choose from), 2
22. Violence (can they go two turns?), 2
23. Maclean’s Music (can they go two turns?), 1
24. Blame (trying to recreate Nadal), 1
25. Bernardini (hard to find a cheap one), 2
26. Cupid (late developers?), 1
27. Practical Joke (maybe they will go two turns?), 1
28. Keen Ice (the ultimate plodder), 1
29. Exaggerator (plodder), 1
30. Hard Spun (getting decent turf horses), 2
31. Malibu Moon (getting cheap enough), 1
32. Ironicus (the hope of Helium), 1
33. Mastery (disappointing start), 2
34. Astern (will they ever get two turns?), 2
35. Upstart (the story in fading), 0
36. Klimt (can they be more than sprinters?), 1
37. Mohaymen (not much at the sales), 0
38. Tapiture (solid but not spectacular), 1
39. Mineshaft (very boring), 0
40. Midshipman (the ultimate value sire), 0
41. Flintshire (making a small comeback?), 1
42. Lea (value?), 1
43. Karakontie (maybe?), 0
44. Anchor Down (maybe?), 1
45. Bal a Bali (watching), 0
46. Big Blue Kitten (not giving up yet), 0
47. Brody’s Cause (fading), 0
48. First Samurai (love the Zilla story), 0
49. Mshawish (time to give up?), 1
50. Noble Mission (time to give up?), 1
51. Orb (exiled), 2
52. Touist (time to give up?), 0
53. Will Take Charge (time to give up), 0

This would have been a difficult sale in the real world. About 10 of the horses I was interested in sold for well above their expected prices. In the real world I am not sure I would have paid up for the Connect filly. At $85,000, it would have been on the top end of what I was willing to pay. This is the same cross as Keen Ice, so let’s assume I would have been brave. If I had passed on the Connect, I would have certainly paid $50,000 Midnight Storm colt. The dam was a solid winner and producer by Mt. Livermore. The second dam is by Nijinsky and produced Alpha.

The mare of the American Freedom filly has produced 6 winners from 6 foals.The Blame colt was too expensive, but he has a great female family so let’s watch him. The Unified colt has an interesting pedigree, the third dam produced Ghostzapper and City Zip.

1. Connect – f – CJ’s Gal by Awesome Again, A++ nick, 3/18 – Hidden Brook, $85,000
2. Midnight Storm – c – Lavender Sky by Mt Livermore, C+ nick, 5/22 – Dragon Squared, $50,000
3. American Freedom – f- Coulee by Vicar, A+ nick, 1/19 – Landon Jordan, $55,000
4. Blame – c – La Laja by El Prado, A+ nick, 2/13 – David Donk, $135,000
5. Unified – c – Andele by Bernardini, A nick. 2/12, Wayne Spalding, $19,000

West Point bought an expensive classic empire and a mid-priced Vancouver. Little Red Feather bought another Midnight Storm that was too sprint oriented for me. My race horse bought an interesting Air Fore Blue for $90,000. Iron Horse bought a $30,000 horse. Eclipse bought a $65,000 Shanghi Bobby, and Zilla bought a moderately interesting Gormley

The real news is that partnerships bought only 7 of 900+ horses. This is a strange sale. Are there bargains here, or just “problem” horses? Right now I am leaning toward problems.

Here are my results from last July’s sale at Ocala. They are not impressive. Of the 20 selected, none have been good, 5 have been ok, 9 have been bad, and 6 are either unnamed or not working.

Those results are why are why I view this as a “problem horse sale”. That might be way to small a sample, but i also do not see a lot of other smart owners shopping at this sale.

1. #560 Summer Front – Cozy Gain – 21.2, $8,000, Larkin Brothers, Unnamed in June
2. #1058 Exaggerator – Cozze Up Lady, 11,0 $12,000, Ironhorse Racing Stable, Deceiver, 7th at Churchill, no races since October, working at Churchill in June
3. #515 Summer Front – Check the Spelling, 10.2 $15,000, Expoline, Rocket Sori, not working
4. #1049 Air Force Blue – Branding – 21.2, $50,000, TB Bloodstock, Granada Flavor, working at SA, bad 10th at SA in March, has won $1,000 at SA
5. #281 Orb – Trophy Wife – 10.1, $35,000, Jeremiah O’Dwyer, Higuita, working at laurel, has won $16,000, is a $35,000 claimer at Delaware
6. #572 Social Inclusion – Dandy Dulce – 33.1 $28,000 Jeremiah O’Dwyer (late PS), Celestial Cheetah, winner MSW at Delaware, already in a $35,000 claimer at Gulfstream, has won $67,000
7. #602 Twirling Candy – Diva’s Seastar, 10.1, $65,000, Michael Langford (a late PS), Sidetown, winner at Churchill for Morse, bad at Oaklawn, has won $23,000
8. #597 Frosted – Celestial Kitten, 10.2 $47,000, Merril Scherer, Della Frost, 5th at Churchill, 2nd is $30,000 maiden claimer at FG, has won $14,000, MSW at Canterbury
9. #1098 Summer Front – Mountain Buddies, 21.2, $30,000, Expoline, Super Sonic Iji, not working
10. #990 Lemon Drop Kid – Oxbow Lake, 10.3, $62,000, Earle Mack, Desert Eagle, working at Woodbine in June
11. #340 Vancouver – Woollahra – 10.2, $21,000, Greg James, Delta Gamma Cats, 2nd at TP, has won $4,000
12. #162 Tourist – Silver Market, 10.1, $12,000 Edward Pulgar, Beauty Boss, working at Gulfstream, won a $25,000 claimer at TB, has won $40,000 is a $25,000 claimer at Gulfstream
13. #594 Sky Mesa – Diamondinthestream, 10.2, $22,000, Vina del Mar Thoro., Miss Bosconovitch, 2nd in a MSW at Pimlico, has won $10,000
14. #51 Jack Milton – Purely Promising, 21.1 $45,000, Steve Young, Gabby Squared, working at Monmouth, has won $14,000, still in Chad’s barn
15. #542 Dialed In – Collusion, 21.2, $40,000, Starship Stables, Starship Saratoga, not working
16. #106 Carpe Diem – Sabi Sands, 10.2, $25,000, Jason Hall (late PS), Lila at the Beach, working at GG, two 2nds at GG is MSW, has won $25,000
17. #252 Air Force Blue – The Rahy Angel, 10.2, $25,000, Churchill Downs Racing Club, Air Force Angel, working at FG, running poorly in $50,000 MC at Churchill, has won $2,000
18. #197 Upstart – Stay Composed, 21.3, $57,000, Siegel Sez Stables, Hangout, 5th at Belmont, two bad MSW tries at AQ, has won $6,000
19. #63 Soldat – Rajpur Road, 10.1, $18,000, Joe Graffeo, Lifechangingevent, working at Palm Meadows, 3rd at GPW in a MC, won a $25,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream, has won $43,000
20. #520 Fed Biz – Chic Gloria – 10.1, $16,000, Starship Stables, Starship Chica, not working

I should be more excited about this sale, but I have just not found that many horses I like. Maybe I am just becoming a grumpy old man.

My goal is to pick 5 horses I like for about the average price. In 2019 the median for this sale was $17,000 and the average $35,000, the results were 20% lower last year in the middle of the pandemic. Let’s shoot for 5 averaging $50,000. We will let the cool kids buy the 9.4’s and 10.0’s, and shop for 10.1’s and 10.2’s.

The horse I am most excited about is #204. This daughter of Connect is the same cross as Keen Ice (Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare). I might have to pay up for this one, the 21.2 was above average. Was a $40,000 yearling.

The best Honor Code in the sale is #217, I would hope to get him for an average price.

Maybe I should be more excited about #223, a daughter of American Freedom out of a nice allowance route dam by Vicar (son of stamina influence Wild Again) , the nick is A+. Was a $17,000 yearling.

Maybe I should be more excited about #88 a son of Unified out of a Bernardini mare. The mare was a $600,000 Darley purchase but only won once. The nick is rated A. Was a $25,000 yearling.

The leftover sale is nearly here. Another 900+ two year olds in training will go on sale next week. To it seems this is the “problem horse” sale. The only reason that a seller would have waited two months for this sale is if his horse had significant problems. The big buyers hardly even participate in this sale.

My results from this sale last year were quite poor, so I will be cautious this year. That may be a very small sample size, but it is also logical.

I have not watched the works very carefully, but I will start building my favorites list here.

1. #217 – Honor Code (maybe the best HC available), B+ nick, 10.1, 4/10 foal, c, $125,000
2. #478 – Blame out of an el Prado mare, A+ nick, 10.2, 2/13 foal, c, $135,000
3. #484 – Midnight Storm out of a Mt Livermore mare, 10.1, C+ nick, 5/22 foal, c, $50,000
4. #418 – Dialed In with a fancy euro pedigree, 21.1, A++ nick, 4/18 foal, f, $350,000
5. #486 – Gormley out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, C+ nick, 4/19 foal, 10.2, c, $20,000
6. #204 – Connect (maybe the best Connect, 21.2, A++ nick (Keen Ice), 3/18, f , $85,000
7. #328 – Twirling Candy (the best TC on sale), 21.2, D nick, 21.2, 4/25, $60,000 RNA
8. #392 – Jack Milton by a Street Sense mare (a 4th tier sire I am interested in), $5,000
9. #499 – Gormley by a Cowboy Cal (damsire of Rombauer) mare, B nick, 10.2, 3/9, $15,000
10. #71 – Mohaymen with interesting euro pedigree, $10,000
11. #159 – Vancouver (still some hope for this sire), $21,000
12. #468 – Tiznow by a Ghostzapper mare, $45,000
13. #65 – Midshipman by a Quality Road mare, $65,000
14. #596 – Klimt by a Scat Daddy mare, $220,000
15. #714 – Air Force Blue by and AP Indy mare, $90,000 by MyRaceHorse.com
16. #725 – Midnight Storm big 2nd dam, $200,000
17. #88 – Unified by a Bernardini mare, $19,000 RNA
18. #608 – Anchor Down – 2nd dam is Winning Colors, $7,000
19. #621 – Exaggerator by a a KJ mare,$18,000
20. #627 – Ironicus by an Arch mare, $10,000
21. #444 – Perfect Soul – Jersey Town mare, 21.1, $15,000
22. #337 – Keen Ice by a Tapit mare, 21.2, $15,000
23. #487 – Liam’s Map by a Tapit mare 21.2, $230,000
24. #223 – American Freedom by a Vicar mare 21.3, $55,000
25. #263 – Connect – 2nd dam is Tizfiz , 21.3, $15,000
26. #902 – Mastery, $90.000
27. #858 – Honor Code, $205,000
28. #830 – Ironicus – by an Arch mare, 10.1, B+ nick, 4/29, $20,000
29. #802 – Mastery, $240,000
30. #767 – Honor Code, $20,000
31. #760 – American Freedom, withdrawn
32. #737 – Union Rags, $24,000 RNA

I guess I will be cheering for Rombauer, but betting on Known Agenda in today’s Belmont. I have to believe that a Twirling Candy out of stamina oriented mare has the best chance of going 1 1/2 miles. But the win in the Preakness will make Rombauer overbet, so my money will go to Known Agenda (Curlin out of stakes winning stamina mare). I really cannot argue against Essential Quality, so he will be in my multi-race wagers.

The horse I will really be cheering for is Dream Shake in the Allen Jerkens. He was one of my selections out of Ocala last year. It is fascinating that sons of Twirling Candy will be competitive at 7 and 12 furlongs.

It is too bad Quick Tempo got hurt, his Beyers would have made him a decent 3rd or 4th choice in this field. He has been working well (almost too fast) for his return, maybe in late June

The 2 year old in training sales are finally done. I “selected ” 30 horses out of the 5 sales, to go with the 40 I “selected” out of the yearling sales. That is a lot of horses to keep track of, so let’s pause and focus on five horses.

These 5 are the best examples of my stamina oriented strategy that I have called “plodder/plodder”. My emphasis is on stamina, with little attention to speed/precocity. Why? Speed sells at a premium in these sales, and stamina is usually a bargain. I am a cheap, arrogant bastard who spent 30 years searching for “value” stocks, and I am now applying that strategy to horses.

5 Horses to Win the 2022 Kentucky Derby

1. American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000 – Larry Hirsch

I have become an American Freedom fan. He is a grandson of AP Indy out of a Pleasant Tap mare. He was 2nd to Arrogate in the Travers, and 2nd to Exaggerator in the Haskell. Despite being a $5,000 sire, he offspring have been selling well. The female family brings in Chester House, With Approval, and Hawaii. $260,000 is a crazy price to pay for a son a American Freedom, but Larry Hirsch is an experienced owner. He worked 20.4 in March at Ocala despite being a May 12th foal.

2. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000 – 5/4 foal – Centennial Farm

Honor Code is my favorite sire, and my goal is to recreate his best son Honor AP. I had a nice conversation with Don Little of Centennial Farms about Honor Code and this horse. This horse is a classic “empty mare”. Beat the Drums was a $400,000 yearling buy for Ogden Phipps. She ran two bad races and retired. Her father was the versatile Smart Strike, and her mom was the $2,000,000 Storm Flag Flying. The nick is rated A. $260,000 is a high price for a yearling with a winless mare, but this how the “cool kids” do it. Being a May 4th foal made this horse difficult to pinhook. His name is Videri.

3. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000 – West Point Thoroughbreds

Connect is a son of Curlin that I think can produce decent two turn horses. Maybe he was more of a miler, but he did win the Penn. Derby at 1 1/8 miles. The mare was a solid allowance horse, running a Equibase fig of 106 on her best day. This a a A rated nick, and the same cross that produced Exaggerator.. West Point paid $120,000 and I thought very long about buying 5%, but decided to pass. His name is Derecho Dandy.

4. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000

I am convinced the Cairo Prince will have a good year in 2021/2. This crop is the first year he was bred to better mares. This is certainly one of those better mares. Flying Spur is a daughter of the great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway, and she ran a good 3rd in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. The second dam is the great Lakeway (a daughter of Seattle Slew), winner of 4 G1 route races. The nick is rated A++. Real world buyer Al Fried has won 180 races. Named The Prince’ Spur.

5. Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado – c – $75,000 – 5/25 – Lewis Lakin

Cupid is a late developing son of Tapit. He did not win at 2, but at 4 he did will at 1 1/4 in the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. The mare won $135,000, and is by the magical El Prado (think Medaglia d’Oro and Kitten’s Joy). The nick is rated A+. This guy worked a quick 10.0 despite being a May 25th foal. Maybe $75,000 is a TGTBT price, or maybe nobody wanted to pay up for a Cupid. Real world owner Lewis Lakin campaigned Pure Clan to a 2nd in the BC Filly &Mare Turf race in 2009.

Five Horses to Win the Kentucky Oaks

1. Twirling Candy – f – Breaking Promises by Broken Vow – $125,000 – Barry Schwartz
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000
3. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick
4. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick
5. Connect – f – CJ’s Gal by Awesome Again, A++ nick, 3/18 – Hidden Brook, $85,000

Sometimes you see a price from these sales that is “to good to be true” or TGTBT.

These are horses that have decent pedigrees and above average works that sell for less than say 3x their stud fee. I have tried to avoid these horse when making my selections. For example, last year Eclipse bought a nice looking Mshawish for only $30,000, but when i talked to them they said he had an ankle chip that needed surgery. It was a minor operation, but it would delay racing at least 4 months.

This all sounds good in theory, but now I face the problem in the real world

Hip #316 sold today for just $20,000. The filly worked an above average 10.2. The sire is Ironicus (a son of Distorted Humor) that just had Helium win the Tampa Bay Derby, and finish a respectable 8th in the Kentucky Derby.

This is a horse I was interested in before the sale. In fact, in my very first post I mentioned my interest in Ironicus.

As soon as I saw that price I thought, TGTBT, but then 30 minutes later I learned the real world buyer were my friends at Pewter Stables. My first reaction is that the price is TGTBT, but maybe it is just a bargain. Ironicus is certainly not a popular sire, in fact he could be considered 4th tier if not for Helium’s success. Ironicus is a sire I started following last year because his mare is by AP Indy.

I will talk to the folks at Pewter next week to get the story.

12 horses that work 10.2 were RNAed

96. horses that worked 10.2 sold for more than $20,000, some for as high as $450,000

5 horses that worked 10.2 sold for exactly $20,000

5 horses that worked 10.2 sold for less than $20,000

.

I need a horse to be excited about. The more I looked at my list, the more I realized I wasn’t just looking at second choices, but more like third or fourth choices. I thought there were some decent bargains among the 10.2 yesterday. The range was fairly consistent from $50,000 to $150,000. I have a few ideas here:

#310 – Street Sense – Ananda by Scat Daddy – Street Sense can be a sire that does not get enough respect. I love the female family here with Scat Daddy and Thunder Gulch. This is an A+ nick. Could be a bargain under $200,000

#581 – Violence – Three Degrees Mon by Maria’s Mon – Dam is a consistent producer (five winners from 5 foals). B+ nick. April 20th foal. Was a $40,000 yearling.

There is one 10.3 horse that I keep coming back to. He was a $75,000 yearling, maybe he will sell under $150,000 with the slow work. Violence is a sire they overpay for, but here the stamina oriented female family my scare off the cool kids

#533 – Violence – Jealous and Jaded by Jade Hunter – B+ nick. Mom produced a Black Eyed Susan winner. A May 19th foal. Maybe the slow work can be excused.

I might still have to settle for #316, #501, #408, or #435, but the horses above give me something to dream about.

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Ok, I did settle and pick up hip #501 for a very reasonable $35,000, but I also got a dream horse #581 for just $95,000.

#501 is by Curlin’s son Connect. The dam and 2nd dam are both Irish bred. The dam was a solid 2nd in a 1 1/4 turf allowance at Santa Anita. Her first foal by American Pharoah was RNAed for $335,000, she was a winner at 2 at Ellis Park. The buyer is the unknown Brett Viers. In reality, this is exactly the type of horse I would try to buy at this sale. If the breeder tried to race the first foal, why did he sell this one? Let’s find out.

#581 is a daughter of Violence. The entire female family is stamina oriented. The work here was 10.2, so under $100,000 is a fair price. The real buyer is experienced owner Robert Zoellner. He raced $1,000,000 winner She’s All In using trainer Donnie Von Hemel.

I avoided several horses that I thought were TGTBT, including #310 who sold for only $35,000. There were also many annoying withdrawals, including #533.

The partnerships were much quieter than than yesterday.

Zilla bought a $100,000 Maclean’s Music I thought was too sprint oriented. Blinker’s On bought a confusing Vancouver. Sackatoga bought an interesting Kantharos. Kenwood bought two ok horses on the second day. West Point tried a $225,000 American Freedom. Eclipse and MyRacehorse.com stayed quiet for the day.

After a bad start with hip #1, the day progressed about as expected with some high prices and RNA’s. The average was $93,000 and the median was $45,000, slightly higher than 2019. I was able to add 2 horses to my group. I paid up for a son of Unified with a fast work, and added a nice looking Astern colt

1. Unified – c – Rare Medal by Medaglia d’Oro – $150,000 – Mike McCarty
2. Astern – c – Maya Princess by Street Sense – $50,000 – R Larry Johnson

Maybe I paid too much for the Unified, but 5 time graded stakes winning owner Mike McCarty did not think so. The horse worked 21.4, and only a few were quicker. Unified comes from my guys at Centennial, so I have to think he can get two turns. The female family is solid, but not spectacular. Again, let’s remember that a solid but not spectacular Medaglia d’Oro dam was the key to Brooklyn Strong.

Astern is a first year sire that just might surprise folks. Here experienced owner R. Larry Johnson paid up for one with a nice 10.2 work. That is 7x the stud fee, but reasonable for an above average work. The mare produced a stakes placed filly with her first foal, this is her second. This pick has above average risk, but I like the idea of buying a grass horse off a dirt work.

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The partnerships had a busy day. West Point bought the sale topper, a Quality Road (with one of 7 works of 10.0) for $1,500,000, and also paid up ($225,000???) for a Keen Ice. Eclipse took only one shot with a modestly expensive Gormley ($150,000). MyRaceHorse bought 4 horses, including a Cupid I am interested in. MyRaceHorse.com deserves extra credit for buying 4 horses for about $100,000 each with very interesting pedigrees. Dare to Dream bought a cheap Lord Nelson I have no interest in, and Bourbon Lane bought another Bernardini. Sackatoga bought a Blame out a Lemon Drop Kid mare that I just love. Pocket Aces bought a strange Penn-bred. Little Red Feather bought an expensive Street Boss ($190,000I have no interest in. Dream Maker bought an average Laoban.

The most interesting buy was a Pioneerof the Nile filly that Zilla paid $120,000 for. This is either a great buy or a TGTBT. Mike P sent an e-mail saying the under-bidder was the infamous Liz Crow. I will certainly consider this horse. Mike thinks she could have a great residual value.

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The Zilla purchase sold out overnight. Mike’s enthusiasm for horses is contagious

I am not that excited by this group of horses. Last year I did poorly trying to find bargains, so this year I will try to find some fair prices. I am worried about buying TGTBT horses.

One interesting horse is hip #1. This filly is by Mineshaft out of a producing Kingmambo mare. The work was a solid 22.0. I would be happy to pay $75,000, maybe $100,000. In a time where prices are high, trying to find 3rd tier sires like Mineshaft might be the only viable strategy for the small/medium size player. I liked the Mineshaft yearling that Richie Munk last September. This is the mare’s 15th foal. I have heard some they prefer younger mare’s, but I cannot believe there is an genetic rational not to buy foals of experienced mares.

One bargain horse I am interested in is #52, an Astern filly out of a Montjeu mare. The work was a slow 10.4, but she might like the turf better. I do not want to pay more than $50,000. Maybe trying to play this first year sire (a son of Medaglia d’Oro is too cute for a beginner, but I think the risk/reward is justified. I think these horses will get two turns, but that is still open to question.

One horse that might be interesting for about $150,000 is #153, a daughter of Cairo Prince out of a mare that started twice in Poland. Maybe another CP #435. I wish I could find a decent CP, I really think he will have a good year with better mares, but the right one has eluded me so far. Even when you identify a sire you like, it can be hard to find the right 2 year old in training. I had the choice of several yearlings I liked, but the training sales are different. Good works make horses too expensive, and bad works can be disqualifying.

Later in the sale I might try to add an expensive Practical Joke with a stamina oriented mare like #320 or #335 or #559. With real money I would not chase a PJ, but for educational purposes I think I should try to find one I like.

The sale starts in 20 minutes, let’s try to bag hip #1.

————————————–

Timonium started badly when hip #1 was bid to $170,000, and then was RNAed. Let’s put Kirkwood Stable on our “bad guys” list and watch where this horse shows up:

Mineshaft – Madam Lagonza by Kingmambo – RNAed for $170,000

A. a Napa Valley vineyard

B. an author of a famous cookbook

C. the horse I had at 90-1 in the Kentucky Derby futures pool

D. the new Preakness champion

A, B, C, and D are correct

What did I see in Rombauer after his closing 5th in the BC Juvenile?

1. Twirling Candy (Rombauer’s dad) has become one of my top 5 sires. He has become a great source of stamina, but can also give his offspring some speed as well. Dream Shake (son of Twirling Candy) nearly won the Pat Day Mile on Derby day. Twirling Candy was a late developer, doing his best running at 4.
2. Twirling Candy is a son on Candy Ride and a Chester House mare. Chester House was best at 1 1/4 miles.
3. Rombauer’s mom is the unraced Cashmere. Cashmere is a daughter of Cowboy Cal, who was best at 1 1/4 on the turf.
4. Cashmere’s mom was Ultrafleet, who ran four horrible races and was retired. She has been a successful mare, producing a $1 million dollar winner named California Flag and two other $200,000+ route horses. Ultrafleet was the daughter of Vigors, a deep closing stamina horse and a Jersey-bred mom that was 1st or 2nd in 17 of 35 races.

If I were Rombauer’s owner I might look for a long turf race like the Belmont Derby, rather than try to run back in only 3 weeks and have to mess with Essential Quality.

I will be cheering for Rombauer in the Preakness. I became a big fan of Twirling Candy last year, and I am sticking with the TC theme. If Medina Spirit, Concert Tour, and Midnight Bourbon duel then maybe the late runners can pick up the pieces. Mike McCarthy is the type of low profile trainer I cheer for, and the owner’s had the good sense to breed their mare to TC. The mare is a unraced daughter of stamina sire Cowboy Cal. So Rombauer is clearly a plodder/plodder.

The even more interesting horse is Todd Pletcher’s Unbridled Honor. The owner here is Mandy Pope the owner of Whisper Hill Farm. She has a long history is the breeding business and her plan for the last 10 years has been to buy expensive mares and breed them to race (and sometimes sell). This is the woman who paid $10 million for Harve de Grace. That might not be rational, but it is a plan.

Unbridled Honor’s dam (Silvery Starlet) ran 7 times with a nice allowance win on the turf at one mile, but she was a $1 million dollar yearling at Keeneland in September 2011. Why? Silvery Scarlet’s mare is the dam of Roman Ruler and El Corredor, with a nice family under the 2nd dam as well. Let’s just say Silvery Scarlet is a well bred horse. Mandy Pope was smart enough to breed her expensive to my favorite sire, Honor Code.

Rational gambling would prevent any sane person from betting on Unbridled Honor off a weak 2nd in a weak Lexington Stakes. Slightly crazed gamblers who have read too many pedigree pages in the last year might just take a flier on a woman with a plan. Let’s hope we see Mandy Pope in the winner’s circle.

Let’s start to build a list for Timonium after the works are done. I have four slots to fill to finish my 2 year old in training list.

Two years ago in rough terms the average for this sale was $90,000 and the median was $45,000. That should be a reasonable estimate for this year. It is a little hard to judge because there are many Maryland and Penn. bred horse in the sale.

The works seems normally distributed with 10.0 and 10.1 being super fast, 10.2 being fast, 10.3 being average, and 10.4 and up being slow. There were only 16 works of 2f, so those will be tough to judge.

Not surprisingly many of my horses worked a too slow 10.4 and 11.0, so I am already down to several second choices.

There are 11 works of 10.0, and 53 works of 10.1, those should be the expensive horses

1. #128 – c – Unified – Rare Medal – 21.4, might be too fast
2. #183 – c – Gormley – Silver Hustler – 10.3 – B+ nick
3. #115 – f – Classic Empire – Practicaly Perfect – 10.3 – no rating
4. #121 – c – Exaggerator – Provincial – 10.3 – D nick
5. #171 – c – Keen Ice – Sheisinittowinit – 10.2 – C nick
6. #153 – f – Cairo Prince – Santina Dond – 10.2 – A+ nick
7. #88 – c – Gormley – On High Alert – 10.2
8. #52 – f – Astern – Morilles – 10.4 – B+ nick
9. #1 – f – Mineshaft – Madam Lagonza – 22.0 – B+ nick
10. #233 – c – Cupid – Tell the Duchess – 10.2 – D nick
11. #274 – f – Classic Empire – Walloon – 10.3 – A++ nick
12. #279 – c – Connect – Willow Bunch – 10.3 – D nick
13. #316 – f – Ironicus – Arched – 10.2 -B+ nick
14. #320 – c – Practical Joke – Aronia – 10.3 – A++ nick
15. #333 – c – Unified – Bag of Tricks – 10.2 – A nick
16. #335 – c – Practical Joke – Bama Belle – 10.3 – C nick
17. #368 – f – Mohaymen – Calle Vista – 10.2 – C nick
18. #408 – c – Cairo Prince – Crumbs of Comfort – D nick
19. #431 – c – Gormley – Done and Dusted – 10.3 – C nick
20. #435 – c – Cairo Prince – Dream of Bertie – 10.3 – A++ nick
21. $456 – f – Golden Lad – Expect Nothing – 10.2 – A+ nick
22. #501 – f – Connect – Halljoy – 10.3 – no nick rating
23. #518 – c – Maclean’s Music – Hot Rendezvous – 10.3 – D nick
24. #527 – c – Unified – Iridium – 10.3 – A nick
25. #555 – f – Bernardini – Lavish Outlook – 10.3 – D nick
26. #559 – f – Practical Joke – Lemon Splash – 10.1 – A nick – expensive??

If I had do choose one word to describe the performance of the major yearling partnerships it would be — paralyzing.

I could have chosen from — terrifying, miserable, horrifying, ugly, and many other adjectives, but the best was paralyzing. Why?

The results are so bad that I doubt I can possibly invest in any of them this fall. It is my goal to remain positive, but the to be honest the results have not been good. Let’s review the big guys.

Donegal

1. Abarta – Into Mischief by Distorted Humor $200,000 mare a turf router, Keeneland #1132, part-owner, got to the Breeder’s Cup Junevile Turf, but has not been seen since, earnings $67,000
2. Cashlings – Ghostzapper by Smart Strike – $250,000 mare was a turf/dirt miler. Keeneland #643, part owner, already a $30,000 claimer, earnings $24,000
3. Code Duello – Honor Code by Rubiano – $95,000. mare never even ran 40 at Finger Lakes, but has 9 winners from 11 foals, Keeneland #296, already a $30,000 claimer, earnings $21,000
4. Donegal Bay – Uncle Mo by Empire Maker, $90,000 2nd dam won the Kentucky Oaks, on paper great value, Keeneland #2658, MSW winner, but last 9th in a Churchill allowance, earnings $30,000
5. Fahan – Honor Code by Horse Chestnut – $235,000 mare graded stakes placed at 1 1/2 miles on the turf, Keeneland #2132, just had his first work
6. Hendrick – Street Sense by Seeking the Gold – $75,000 mare was Godolpin horse that ran in GB, Keeneland #1846, was in a MC but did not lose him, earnings $30,000
7. Lode of Blarney – Exxagerator by Silver Deputy – $85,000 mare unraced, but 7 of 11 foals were winners, Keeneland #1272, Claimed for $30,000, earnings $28,000
8. Millean – Blame by Tale of the Cat, $65,000 -mare never ran better than 68, two foals neither a winner, Keeneland #1716, ran in the Sam Davis, but now a $25,000 claimer, earnings $50,000
9. Potato Candy – Candy Ride by Dynaformer – $210,000, mare was a decent allowance turf sprinter Keeneland, #1793, has not worked, was told he has bad feet
10. Tommy Knocker – Mineshaft by Touch Gold – $65,000, mare unraced, but 6 of 7 foals were winners, Keeneland #2409, one work back in March
11. The Big Irishman – Hat Trick by Mizzen Mast – homebred, mare won claiming Crown Tiara at 1 1/16 on the turf, 8th in a maiden at Delta Downs with a 43 fig
12. Turlough – English Channel by AP Indy – homebred, mare won only a maiden race in NY, one MC start at Gulstream in December.

The results are bad, but what is even more concerning is how quickly several of these horse were put up for sale. I would have expected much more patience.

I really liked this group, and considered investing, but I am glad I passed.

Centennial

1. Frozen Assets – Frosted $275,000, has 3 works in Florida, a slow starter
2. Khafre – American Pharoah $500,000, one start in January, has not worked since
3. Orr – Nyquist $375,000, has not worked
4. Royal Realm – Empire Maker $250,000, a recent start at Belmont, got 4th

Maybe it is too early to make a call here, Jimmie Jerkens does bring them along slow. I really liked this group, and seriously considered a large investment. I am afraid I would have been disappointed.

Ten Strike

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker $370,000, claimed by Broberg cannot break maiden at Lone Star, earnings $18,000
2. Amazing Rocket – Into Mischief $500,000, 7th in second start at Churchill
3. Rocket Equation – Frosted $250,000, one start in Indiana in October, not seen since
4. Eight and Sand – Munnings – homebred, never has worked
5. Swill – Munnings $265,000, got to two stakes races, but has not raced or worked since January, earnings $78,000
6. Montgomery Park – Munnings $170,000, claimed for $30,000
7. Lovin Lucky – Lookin at Lucky $140,000, last seen in a MC in January
8. Arrio – Paynter $50,000, one start in January, not seen since
9. Racy Jaycee – Race Day $24,000, claimed for $20,000 after winning at Oaklawn

The same quick moves to the claiming ranks. I never really liked this group this group, so I feels less pain. I did carefully consider their 2020 offering, and am glad I passed. I really like these guys, but the results are not there.

West Point

1. A Longlongtimeago – Maclean’s Music $120,000, 2 bad allowance starts, earnings $43,000
2. Arabian Price – Mshawish $235,000, 5th in the Lecomte, not seen since, earnings $83,000
3. Charity for All – Union Rags $50,000, claimed for $15,000
4. Classic Colors – Street Sense $170,000, Allowance winner at Belmont, earnings $82,000
5. Elector – Constitution $65,000, one March work
6. First Captain – Curlin $1,500,000, with other buyers, good first start winner at Belmont
7. Flightline – Tapit $1,000,000, with other buyers, big first race at SA, Beyer over 100
8. Flying With Angels – Ghostzapper $500,000, 3 bad starts at Belmont
9. Lady Traveler – Quality Road $350,000, 3 stakes tries, earnings $100,000
10. Magnificent – Frosted $250,000, one bad start at SA
11. Martinez – Twirling Candy $100,000, 5 bad starts, none since December
12. Proud Union – Union Rags $55,000, no starts or works
13. Shadow Matter – Macho Uno $55,000, decent maiden win
14. Steel City Beast – Big Beast -$75,000, no works
15. Warn – Declaration of War $140,000, one bad February start, nothing since

These results are a little better. I guess if you spend $1 million you should expect a good horse. Half the horses have been complete washouts, maybe that should be the expectation. Study these results carefully.

Eclipse

1. Astrological – Malibu Moon $350,000, working at Woodbine
2. Avenue – Quality Road $450,000, maiden winner at Keeneland
3. Aviano – Medalia de Oro $775,000, decent allowance try, earnings $58,000
4. Demon – Into MIschief $150,000, claimer at Gulfstream
5. Eagle in the Sky – Sky Mesa $115,000, 2 races already, no starts since October
6. Excursion – Curlin $325,000, claimed for $30,000 by Diodoro
7. Gretzky the Great – Nyquist $295,000, already a winner at Woodbine, Stakes winner at Woodbine, tried the BC, 5th in the Jeff Ruby, earnings $285,000
8. Hidden – Uncle Mo $225,000, working ar Churchill
9. Honorable – Constitution $60,000, quickly a claimer
10. Modest – Flatter $175,000, 3 bad starts, none since January
11. Spanish Loveaffair- Karokontie $35,000, winner at Gulfstream, tried the BC, but two bad tries this year, earnings $128,000
12. Speight – Speightstown $185,000, quickly a claimer, nothing since March
13. Thrilling – Uncle Mo $200,000, working at SA
14. Thrive – Competitive Edge $65,000, 3 MSW tries. earnings $28,000
15. Tunic – Empire Maker $410,000, no works

These results are better, but more than half are washouts. Getting to the BC with a $35,000 horse is notable accomplishment. Note that Gretzky the Great is just a breakeven horse.

Bourbon Lane

1. Queen Bourbon – Empire Maker $265,000, 3 decent MSW starts, earnings $36,000
2. Bourbon Royale – Tapit $240,000, one bad March start at Tampa
3. Rye Sense of Humor – Distorted Humor $180,000, 3 starts, none since October
4. Frosted Bourbon – Frosted $120,000, 2 starts, none since October
5. Hard Rye Guy – Hard Spun $125,000, nice 4th in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, earnings $58,000

Modestly encouraging results, but still not good. Still could get better with a little luck.

Starlight

1. Spielberg – Union Rags – $1,000,000, earnings $420,000, nothing since March
2. Hopkins – Quality Road – $900,000, working at LA
3. Classier – Empire Maker – $775,000, nothing since setting crzay pace in BC Juvenile, earning $63,000
4. Tenor – Curlin – $800,000, one bad start in September, nothing since
5. Fenway – Into Mischief – $650,000, 4 mediocre starts at SA, nothing since March, earnings $24,000
6. Hozier – Pioneerof the Nile – $625,000, earnings $260,00, 2nd in the Rebel, still could be a great horse
7. Tarantino – Pioneerof the Nile – $610,000, 3 stakes tries, nothing since March, earnings $132,000
8. Money Mike – Into Mischief – $600,000, one bad MSW start at SA
9. Showpower – More Than Ready – $500,000, working at SA
10. Carrobio – Pioneerof the Nile – $410,000, claimed for $35,000
11. Bezos – Empire Maker – $400,000, decent maiden win at KE, earnings $38,000
12. Savile Road – Quality Road – $385,000, maiden winner, out since November, earnings $34,000
13. Jouster – Noble Mission – $360,000, earnings $215,000, nice stakes winner
14. Miacomet – Flatter – $350,000, working at SA
15. Recidivist – Into Mischief – $350,000, 2 MSW tries at KE, earnings $9,000
16. Splashtown – Speightstown – $300,000, 1 bad GP start
17. Honest Money – Honor Code – $265,000, no works
18. Knopfler – Looking at Lucky -$240,000, MC winner at Churchill, earnings $32,000
19. Freedom Fighter – Violence – $120,000, 4th in the Gotham, earnings $92,000
20. Mr. Briggs – Super Saver – $85,000, one MSW try at GP, earnings $4,000

This is a big sample. Look very carefully at these results, and make your own decision. These are expensive horses. Some could still improve, but it still looks like about half are washouts. Really only 3 or 4 of 20 have become stakes horses.

Only 13 of the 80 have earned 33% of their purchase price, only 1 of 80 has returned more than their purchase price (Spanish Loveaffair)

Just for the record my Quick Tempo has earnings of $116,000 off a purchase price of $75,000.

Just for completeness:

Myracehorse.com

These we all yearling purchases:

1. Moonlight d’Oro – Medaglia de Oro $625,000, won the G3 Las Virgenes, earned $163,000
2. Shared Empire – Pioneerof the Nile $275,000, no works
3. Joyful Addiction – Pioneerof the Nile $385,000, no works
4. Lady Valentine – Into Mischief $385,000, working in NY

This is the “Filly Four”. The best I can tell they are no longer offering shares in this group

Last year I mythically “bought” 20 horses from the Ocala sale for about $1,041,000. My guess was those horses would earn $500,000 in purses over the next year. Let’s see how that worked out.

I was a little low. Through May 10th the group has earned $898,000 in purses.

West Point and Eclipse also paid about $1,035,000 and earned $473,000 in purses.

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 – named Mr. Cline, working at Arlington, has not raced
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100 – named Cane Creek Road, 4th Churchill MC, earnings $29,000
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40 – named Starship Skywalker, not working, has not raced
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65 – named Avisse, 3rd in MSW at Del Mar, O’Neil, earnings $38,000
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30 – Named Risky Reward, winner MSW at Churchill, Walsh, earnings $84,000
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35 – named Shea D Summer, small stake winner at Gulfstream, earnings $75,000
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17 – named Tap Dance Fever, 3rd at Delaware MC, Bennett, working at Tampa, earnings $18,000
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47 – named Quick Gold, working at Tampa Bay, has not run
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30 – named Whatmakessammyrun, winner at Belmont, Weaver, earnings $92,000
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20 – named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd in MSW at Woodbine, Earnings $19,000
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6 – named Brooklyn Strong, winner of small stake at Belmont, winner of the Remsen, 15th in the Derby, Earnings $225,000
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110 – named Midnight Choir, 4th at Belmont, Thomas, earnings $5,000
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20 – named Rittenhouse, working at Monmouth, working at Parx, has not run
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25 – named Wham Bam Shrimp , Zacney Racing, working at Parx, has not raced
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200 – named Chaos Reigns, Ellis, working at SA, earnings $6,000
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6 – unnamed
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15 -, Mike’s Lady, 4th at Hawthorne, Reavis, earnings $2,000
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65 – named Jeebar, bullet at Gulfstream, earnings $18,000
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47 – named Get Her Number, winner G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita, earnings $276,000
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125 – named Nurturing, 6th at Del Mar, earnings $11,000

Let’ compare to what West Point and Eclipse bought:

1. (WP) Jaxon Traveler – Munning’s – Listen Boy – $140,000 – winner MSW + allowance at Laurel., small stake at Oaklawn, $271,000
2. (WP) King’s Ovation – Not This Time – Karen’s Silk -$200,000 – winner MSW Churchill, $77,000
3. (WP) Silver Streak – Ironicus – Pic Three Bertie – $45,000 – working at Fair Hill, has not run
4. (EC) McCovey Cove – California Chrome – Sky Glow – $200,000 – not working, has not run
5. (EC) Surplus – Fed Biz – Chestnut Moon -$47,000 – not working, has not run
6. (EC) Exact – Competitive Edge – Thisizsparta – $82,000 – 2nd at Belmont, $63,000
7. (EC) Nuturing – Violence – Pi Bella – $125,000 – 6th at Del Mar, $11,000
8. (EC) Dutchess of Shire – Flintshire – Anaaba – $47,000- not working, not running
9. (EC) Cadencia – Mshawish – Tango Time – 115,000 – 2nd at Belmont, $51,000

West Point and Eclipse spent $1,035,000 on 9 horses.

I spent $1,041,000 on 20 horses. You make the comparison.

If I did not write this all down, absolutely no one would believe me. This is certainly a very small sample and a very short time frame. I know from 30 years of evaluating performance numbers of portfolio managers that short-term results can be misleading.

On the other hand, Warren Buffett alway said that he had a distinct advantage of working in Omaha, rather being in the center of the Wall Street maelstrom. My picks were made without seeing the horses, or getting an advice from experts.

This is my list of yearling selections that will compete with the two year olds in training of the previous post. 11 of the 40 have not been named so far

1. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. I think the sire in undervalued, and the dam is exactly what I am looking for. The nick is A+. This horse moved to the top of my list after talking to the Centennial folks about Honor Code. Buyer = S. Schwartz, unnamed, was entered in Ocala March
2. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick, – My favorite freshman sire is Midnight Storm. He was durable, and was a source of stamina on dirt and turf. The dam and 2nd dam were solid producers, and the 2nd dam was by Hansel. The late birthday keeps the pinhookers away. buyer = John Davison, named Ghostly Night
3. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000 – A++ nick, – The more I thought about, the more I like the idea of LDK. He is the ultimate old, boring sire. The mare was a solid runner, and produced two million dollar winners, including freshman sire American Freedom. buyer = Black Stone Farm, named Lemon Last
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – c – 4/11. $100,000 – I though Classic Empire would be too expensive, but this one is too good to pass up. The mare by the great Kingmambo was 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, and the 2nd dam is by the stamina sire Strawberry Road. The nick is a D, but I just have to try this stamina combination. Buyer = John Oxley, named Classic King
5. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Academy – c – 5/7 – $65,000 – A++ nick, – The dam was multiple graded stakes placed, and produced a graded winner by Dynaformer. Lots of fancy Euro-pedigree in the 2nd dam. My favorite turf horse. named Lahania Flavor
6. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000 – Cairo Prince produced some good horses from below average mares. Now he is getting better mares, like this one that was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. The 2nd dam won 4 grade 1’s, and $965,000. The nick is a A. buyer = Al Fried, named The Prince’s Spur
7. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000 – B+ nick – Gormley is my favorite new speed sire. The dam produced 6 solid runners from 7 foals, and is by top broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. buyer = 5 O’Clock Somewhere, unnamed
8. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick. The mix of an AP Indy sire with a Storm Cat mare is classic breeding. The 2nd dam in multiple G1 winner Lazy Slusan. Taking advantage of Bernardini falling “out of favor”, buyer = Jerry Romans, named Sultry Lass
9. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – c – 2/4, $120,000 – A nick, This is the best idea from any partnership. I was very close to buying 5% from West Point. Connect is an interesting freshman sire (a son of Curlin) and Vindication adds Seattle Slew blood. This is the same cross as Exaggerator. buyer = West Point, named Derecho Dandy
10. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000 – B+ nick, – This is my second best turf horse. Bernardini is a top quality broodmare sire and the second dam was an amazing stamina producer by Affirmed. Buyer = WSS Racing, named Blazing Summer

Second 10, a little more speed, a little less stamina:

1. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000 – nick C+ – Unified is more of a miler (a son of Candy Ride), but we add plenty stamina on the dam side, unraced AP Indy mare, but the 2nd dam was $1,000,000 winner of the Personal Ensign, Balletto, and the 3rd and 4th dams were graded winners. This is a Cox/Crow type of horse. named Majority Partner
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000, nick D – This is my attempt to recreate Union Rags. Their is bunch of stamina pedigree in the 2nd dam by G3 placed daughter of Dynaformer. Mare won a small stake at Santa Anita, and produced a G3 placed winner of $200,000. named Golden Gal
3. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker – c – 2/19 – $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick – There is lots of stamina pedigree (Nureyev and Alleged) in the dam. Donegal gave him a nice write up. Great “heart score”, named Tricolour
4. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – f – 2/27- $75,000 – A+ nick, – The dam won $100,000. The 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch is a sister to Spain. The same cross as Free Drop Billy, named Majestic Union
5. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – c – 1/26 – $80,000 – The nick is an A. This is another Union Rags attempt, the dam was a solid distance horse, and the 2nd dam produced $1,000,000 router Macho Again. He’s No Joke
6. Connect – Happy Clapper – $50,000, A++ nick, 3/12 – Dam won $200,000 and produced a $100,000 winner, 2nd dam by Cozzene, unnamed
7. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – f – 4/12 – $100,000 – nick C – Mare won at Delaware. The second dam by Pleasant Colony is the producer of Tonalist. Frosted was “on sale”. named Ice Cold Gold
8. Tonalist –Holiday Girl by Harlan’s Holiday – $42,000, 3/17 – nick A++ – This is a Liz Crow idea. Mare is a $100,000 winner and producer of two $100,000 winners. Same Cross as Tonalist’s Shape. unnamed
9. Tapiture – Sotique by Hennessy – $60,000 – 2/4 – nick B+ – The mare made $150,000 for Mark Kellar, who has bought some good stamina horses, Lady Pele
10. Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – c – 4/27 – $27,000 – nick A – Bought by Antonio Sano who also bought another Dialed In colt named Guenavara. unnamed

Just for fun let’s also do a group of 20 that averages $30,000, but goes no higher than $40,000. This might be a more realistic price point for a first time buyer.

1. Point of Entry – Jazz Time by Dixieland Band -$15,000 – nick A – 2nd dam won $800,000 and two G1 races., named Ribot’s Valentine
2. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado – f – 4/5, $24,000 – American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy. I love the stamina pedigree of the dam. The 2nd dam was runner up in the Personal Ensign. The nick is an A. buyer = Cool Hill Farm, named Moudhi, purchased for $75,000 in Ocala
3. Gormley – Beautifulballerina by Nureyev – 4/23 – $33,000 – nick A++ – Second dam by Affirmed. Adding maximum stamina to Gormley with this dam. unnamed
4. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- 2/10 -$29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag, dam produced $300,000 winner, B+ nick, My favorite from my “dirty dozen” out of favor sires. named Beautiful Pie
5. Midnight Storm – Soft Wind by Flatter – 4/3 – $35,000 – A++ nick – First and second dam were winners and producers. Adding AP Indy for stamina, named Duke of Edinburgh, purchased for $140.000 at Ocala by Marylou Whitney
6. Midnight Storm – Miss Montreal – $39,000 – 2/6 – nick B+ – sneaky good mare that ran 111 eqibase fig going a mile on the turf at Gulfstream. Ex Indiana QB Antowne Randal El is the buyer., named Miss Midnight
7. Shamen Ghost – Guanahani by Pleasant Tap – 4/30 – $25,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced two winners. New sire with lots of stamina added to a stamina mare. The ultimate plodder/plodder., named Shamen’s Prodigy
8. Honor Code – Big Move – $27,000 -2/18 – Mare won $150,000 and is a granddaughter of Dynaformer. This horse might go 2 miles!, named Melik Shakh
9. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40,000 – A++ nick – Mare produced two $300,000 winners.,Unnamed
10. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance by Danehill – c – 4/18 – $35,000 – Ironhorse – A very solid Danehill mare. She was G3 placed and produced a $400,000 winner. named Maintainer
11. Keen Ice – Peace Price – $37,000 – B+ nick – Dam produced a $300,000 winner that finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes. named Ballykeen
12. American Freedom – Never Quicker by Hennessy – c – 2/10 – $37,000 – nick A – Classic cross of AP Indy and Storm Cat. Mare was a winner and produced a $200,000 winner., unnamed
13. Orb – Brusquer by Elusive Quality – $17,000 – 2/6 – nick A++ – Dam was a winner, 2nd dam produced Tapit, 3rd dam by Nijinsky. Travis Murphy takes a shotClassic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt. named Alia Max
14. Classic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt. unnamed
15. Connect – Exclusive Woman (99) by Cat Thief – $20,000 – B+ nick – Dam by won $100,000 and produced a $140,000 winner. 2nd dam by Dynaformer, 3rd dam by Affirmed, how much more stamina can you get?, named Kukaro
16. Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok, $30,000, Hoppel’s Horse, A++ nick dam won $60,000, and produced a $300,000 graded stakes winner. named Spun Beautiful, bought by West Point in Ocala for $140,000
17. Maclean’s Music – Reggae Rose – $20,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced a $500,000 winner, 2nd dam by Dynaformer produced a $300,000 winner, named Late Night Music
18. Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch -$21,000 – 2/20 – nick A – Maybe Astern can be stretched of if you add Thunder Gulch. Mare was a winner and producer. Unnamed, RNA $19,000 at Ocala
19. Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – 2/11 – $15,000 – Same cross as Exaggerator, 2nd dam won 800,000 and multiple graded races., named Pankrat
20. Anchor Down – Lemon Secretary by Lemon Drop Kid – 3/8 – $10,000 – nick B+ – Dam produced an $80,000 winner that was graded stakes placed, and the 2nd dam is full sister to stamina sire Perfect Soul., unnamed

The two year old in training sale season can be a little confusing.

1. March Ocala sale – for the most precocious
2. Gulfstream sale – a true select sale for 100 expensive horses
3. Texas sales – a strange collection of cheaper horses
4. Ocala April – the big sale with a wide selection
5. Timonium – kind of. a select sale, on dirt rather than Ocala’s synthetic

I have selected a group of 30 horses from these sales. I will include the Texas horses in a different group because I am highly skeptical about the quality of horses in this sale. Here is my group of 30.

From Ocala April:

1. Air Force Blue – c – #88 – $85,000 – Double O Racing
2. Honor Code – c – #466 – $55,000 – Peter Miller
3. Cupid – #187 – c – $75,000 – Lewis Lakin
4. Twirling Candy – f – #559 – $120,000 – Barry Schwartz
5. Shamen Ghost – c – #477 – $55,000 – Tom Kagele
6. Classic Empire – f – #291 – $100,000 – Eric Long
7. Twirling Candy – c – #206 – $65,000 – Scott McDermott, named Snow Candy
8. Unified – f – #536 – $55,000 – Edge Racing
9. Exaggerator – f – #29 – $75,000 – Gayle Van Leer
10. Connect – f – #869 – $125,000 – Steve Young
11. Honor Code – f – #1069 – $23,000 – P&G Stables
12. Astern – c – #846 – $47,000 – Twin Sports Racing
13. Gormley – f – #989 – $11,000 – Gaylon McGee
14. Midnight Storm – c – #338 – $45,000 – Mike Pender
15. Noble Mission – f – #256 – $30,000 – Joe Graffeo
16. Mastery – c – #1020 – $17,000 – George Weaver
17. Cairo Prince – f – #191 – $37,000 – Ted Barlas
18. Violence – f – #31 – $30,000 – Gayle Van Leer
19. Frosted – c – #239 – $30,000 – Rodolfo Garcia
20. Klimt – c – #366 – $30,000 – Cammarota Racing
21. Flintshire – f – #769 – $20,000 – Ballybrit

Total of $1,133,000 or $54,000 average

From Gulfstream:

1. Malibu Moon – Noble Ready by More Than Ready – c – #184 – $270,000 – Live Oak, named Souper Royal Moon

From Ocala March:

1. #195 – f – Lea – Sassy’s Dream by Flower Alley – 3/14 foal – $20,000 – SAB Stable, named Samurai Steph
2. #179 – c – Shaman Ghost – Repossee by Officer – foaled 5/9 – $45,000 – DJ Stable, named Grave Danger
3. #448 – c – Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo, 3/23 foal – $120,000 – Kim Valerio
4. #461 – c – American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000 – Larry Hirsch

Total of $445,000 or $111,000 average

From Timonium:

1. Unified – c – Rare Medal by Medaglia d’Oro – $150,000 – Mike McCarty
2. Astern – c – Maya Princess by Street Sense – $50,000 – R Larry Johnson
3. Connect – f – Halljoy (IRE) by Halling – $35,000 – Brett Viers
4. Violence – f – Three Degrees Mon by Maria’s Mon – $95,000 – Robert H Zoellner

Total of $330,000 or $82,500 average

Overall 30 horses for a total of $2,170,000 or $72,500 on average

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From Texas:

1. #23 – f – Mr. Speaker – Red Hot Tops by Arch, $40,000, real buyer Dan Bates
2. #76 – c – Lea – Crema d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro, $28,000, real buyer Mark Allen
3. #106 – f – Dialed In – Hard Ten Hopping , by Rock Hard Ten, $27,000, buyer Tom Galvin
4. #79 – f – Bal a Bali – Conquest Slayer by Scat Daddy, $13,500, buyer BKD Consulting

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Also a list of 10 horses I liked, but thought were a little too pricey:

1. Dialed In – #175 – $220,000 – Stevens Bloodstock
2. Mr Speaker – #882 – $195,000 – Little Red Feather
3. Liam’s Map – #144 – $270,000 – Radley Equine
4. Practical Joke – #1009 – $170,000 – John Gaynor
5. Practical Joke #899 – $170,000 – Red Baron Barn
6. Hard Spun – #364 – $140,000 – West Point
7. Hard Spun – #646 – $180,000 – Fazza Racing
8. Point of Entry – #403 – $120,000 – Atlas Bloodstock
9. Connect – #869 – $125,000 – Steve Young
10. Tonalist – #671 – $80,000 – Myracehorse.com

In fact I was so impressed with Myracehorse.com’s (MRC) yearling deal, I decided to make a small investment in a single horse.

I really liked a Dialed In colt they bought at the March Ocala sale. The dam, Wonder Upon a Star, is by stamina influence Street Cry, and the second dam has produced two $1,000,000+ horses. MRC only paid $140,000 for a horse with a nice 21.2 work, and a decent pedigree. The horse has a good looking photo on their website. The Truenicks rating is A.

MRC is selling .01% for $37, so I bought 10 shares for $370. Just a few clicks and the transaction was done. MRC charges 2 full years of prepaid expenses up front. It will be interesting to see how their accounting system works. I doubt I would have bought 1% for $3700, but the ability to buy a small position was a factor in my decision.

I think the concept of “microshares” is a good idea, and could be the future of partnerships. I think the issues around MRC’s investment in Authentic are complex, and I see both sides of the argument. I still worry that MRC is a little “over-promotional”, but I am a grumpy old man who has that same opinion of many businesses.

That brings my number of real horses back to 6.

You have to impressed with what Myracehorse.com has accomplished with their package of 14 yearlings.

For just $50 I have received a nice bunch of e-mails and videos about these horses. Better yet almost all of them have made progress toward racing at 2 (one horse was killed in a freak training accident).

1. A Mo Reay – f – Uncle Mo, $400,000, Pletcher, MSW winner at AQU, and an allowance race at LRL, has won $151,000
2. Above Suspicion – f – Honor Code, $210,000, G. Mandella, not yet racing, 4 works at SA
3. Can’t Hush This – c – Not This Time, $220,000, Amoss, has run poorly is 3 MSW, winnings $4,000
4. Dolce Notte – f – Bernardini, $180,000, Mott, has not raced
5. Frosted Oats – c – Frosted, $250,000, Mott, 2nd in MSW at BEL, winnings $48,000
6. Inalattetrouble – f – Into Mischief , $195,000, Stall, not working, never raced
7. Infinite Empire – f – Empire Maker, $360,000. Baffert, one start $14,000, out 8 months, working at SA
8. Lookwhogotlucky – c – Lookin for Lucky, $115,000, Asmussen, 4 starts, 4th in a $25,000 MC in Houston, won a $7,500 MC at LS, has won $11,000
9. Man Among Men – c – War Front, $360,000, G. Mandella, has not raced yet, 6 works at SA
10. Provocateur – c – Into Mischief – $600,000, Pletcher, 2nd in the Pasco at TB, has earned $160,000, 3rd in the Woody Stephens
11. Quantum Theory – c – Connect – $50,000, Clement, won a MC at GP, has won $34,000, ran for a $40,000 tag
12. Sacred Beauty – f – Classic Empire, $80,000, Blacker, won a $8,000 MC at GG, claimed for $16,000, has become decent stater allowance horse for new owner
13. Sixtythreecaliber – f – Gun Runner, $250,000, Amoss, has won a MSW and Allowance race at Indiana, winnings, $42,000
14. Kantharos (died in training accident)

This will be a fun group of horses to watch. It will be interesting to watch the different workout patterns. I will get much more than $50 of education.

This is a list of 2 year old in training horses that I could have purchased:

1. Mr Speaker – f – (Little Red Feather, $195,000, named Oakhurst already) – This one almost got me to invest, but I choked. I wish the price had been $100,000. There were shares available for a few days, but I passed.
2. Hard Spun – f – (West Point, $140,000, named Spun Beautiful) – This was a top 20 horse, and I liked this horse out of the yearling sale. Was not thrilled about running in California, and the price was a little more than i wanted to pay.
3. First Samurai – c – (Zilla Racing – $270,000, maybe named Joyeuse) – Mike Piazza almost talked me into this one with great e-mail about stride length and the quality of the work. I am very impressed by the work Zilla has been doing
4. American Freedom – c – (Dare to Dream, $50,000, named American Sanctuary) – I liked a few AF’s better, but maybe I should have settled for this one. This was from March Ocala, and I wanted to wait.
5. Ghostzapper – f – (West Point, $375,000) – If I would ever buy an expensive horse, this might be the one. Bred along the lines of Barbaro (Dynaformer + Carson City). A very interesting idea, just too expensive.
6. Tonalist – f – (myracehorse.com, $80,000) – This was a very reasonable purchase. I did not like a lot of the other horses they bought, but this idea was interesting. The Candy Ride mare was a nice John Sheriffs horse. I might buy a share or two.
7. Connect – c – (Hibiscus, 20,000) – Maybe the best Connect deal available, reasonable Malibu Moon dam.
8. Bernardini – c – (Ironhorse, $50,000) – Interesting idea, a big fan of trainer Tim Glyshaw.
9. Tapizar – c – (Dare to Dream, $50,000 named Solar Tap) – Quick Tempo’s little half brother. Just a little too easy to go back to Tapizar again, but sometime easy is good.
10. Midnight Storm – c – (Maverick/Commonwealth, $550,000) When I identified Midnight Storm as my favorite sire this is not what i expected to pay, but just for fun let’s watch this horse.

I have always wanted to focus on one maiden race and see what happens to the runners.

The race is a 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Belmont two races before the Peter Pan.

The race features many beautifully bred fillies. Here is the lineup:

1. Tetella, is a Brad Cox firster by More Than Ready that a small owner paid $200,000 for as a Keeneland yearling. Cox is not great with firsters over a mile, so let’s just watch this one. e has only used Junior Alvarado once in two years.
2. Traffic Song, a Jimmie Toner trainee is a $125,000 Cross Traffic that ran a 68 Beyer is a Gulfstream turf mile in March. The second dam was multiple graded stakes placed for the Phipps. This is an interesting horse with fast works at Fair Hills. Kendrick might even put him on the lead.
3. Lily Simone, my favorite, a homebred for David Donk and breeder Robert Spiegel. The second dam was Spiegel’s top earner, and a graded stakes winner on the turf. The cross with Hard Spun is similar to Spun to Run. Maybe 1 1/16 miles is too far, but the Hard Spun’s can surprise you. Johnny Velasquesz picks up the mount, and he seldom rides for Donk.
4. Now Yus Cant Leave is a $285,000 Tonalist 2 year old in training. It has taken a long time to get to the races, but that is a lot for a Tonalist. Tom Morley is a solid young trainer. This is an interesting horse.
5. In Italian, is a Chad Brown second time starter that nearly won a cheap maiden race at Tampa with only a 65 Beyer. I will gladly play against him, even though Irad rides. By Dubawi out of a strange Australian mare
6. Columbe D’Oro is a well bred Shug firster that was a $500,000 yearling. I hope he needs a race or two.
7. Infinite Potential is an Irish bred Chad Brown for my former client Seth Klarman. The workout guys like this horse. Might need more distance, but I will play her just in case
8. Palamos nearly won here maiden race at Aqueduct last November with an 80 Beyer. The daughter of Blame is solid, but I will try to beat her for no good reason.
9. Flaming Rouge ran some nice races in France but looks like she wants more distance. She is Kitten’s Joy out of a Woodman mare for Clement. Rosario has already won 4 races, but I will play against.
10. Bonkers, is an interesting daughter of Bernardini out of a Kitten’s Joy mare. The horse moves up from Arnaud Delecour to Mike Maker for the sharp guys at Three Diamonds. She ran some decent races last year, and Maker could help her improve.

I am 5 deep in the pick 6 with 2,3,4,7, and 10, after winning to first two legs at short prices. I am singled in the last race to a Jack Milton horse I selected in the July Ocala sale. At ten minutes to post the 5 is even money, I think I have 5 good shots against him.

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Chad’s Tampa shipper got an easy lead, was never threatened, and won easy. All those great ideas loomed at the top of the stretch, but when the running started, only Chad had horse. Maybe the pace was too soft, or maybe all those fancy horses are just bad. The Equibase fig for the winner was only 86, so if the winning Beyer was maybe 73. After a slow 49.40, the winner did come home sub 29.00 the last 2.5 furlongs.

The French distance horse got up for 2nd, and Chad’s other horse got 3rd, my longshots were 6th through 9th.

We will find out over time if any of these horses get better, let’s watch.

It is interesting to note that the winner was a $600,000 yearling at Tatersalls in October of 2019. That was not listed in the Daily Racing Form. It is always nice to see reformed felon Peter Brant win another race. %$#$$%$#$$%%%6*&%%#, cursing omitted.

Why in the world was this horse at Tampa? He lost by a neck an would have cost his owner at least $40,000 if he had won that race. What am I missing?

You have to appreciate the irony.

The Kentucky Derby winner could not be any less “well bred”. Medina Spirit sold for $1,000 at a yearling sale. His sire (Protonico) is almost completely unknown, and MS is the first foal out of an unraced mare.

The Kentucky Oaks winner could not be any more well bred. Malathaat was a $1 million dollar yearling by the most expensive sire Curlin. Malathaat’s mother ran 4th in the Kentucky Oaks (she was the daughter of the great AP Indy), and Malathaat’s mom’s mother was a multiple graded 1 winner.

In horse racing anything is possible.

Actually the breeding of Medina Spirit is interesting if you dig a little deeper. The sire Protonico is a son of the versatile Giant’s Causeway. Protonico is by an AP Indy mare, whose mother was a graded stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles. MS’s dam is a granddaughter of the great stamina influence Dynaformer. The second dam is a daughter of Derby winner Unbridled.

Medina Spirit is really a plodder/plodder.

Of course, Mandaloun was a close 2nd in the Derby. He is a classic Brad Cox miler being stretched out to be capable of going 1 1/4 (Into Mischief out of a sprint oriented mare). 3rd place Hot Rod Charlie is a mix, Oxbow is a son of distance oriented Awesome Again, but the dam is by sprint oriented Indian Charlie.

My dream of Brooklyn Strong got a solid bump at the start and did little running.

What was impressive was the great 2nd run by Dream Shake in the Pat Day Mile.

I guess I need 5 horses to go with Brooklyn Strong:

1. Known Agenda is my favorite of the real contenders. Son’s of Curlin get better with age, and the dam was a plodding British bred horse.
2. Highly Motivated has been on my radar since he set a track record beating my Quick Tempo on Breeder’s Cup day. I do have a $100 futures bet on this guy.
3. Helium is a horse I will be cheering for because I do believe in bringing a horse in off a 60 day layoff. His mare is by the great Thunder Gulch, and he was only a $65,000 yearling buy.
4. Essential Quality, I have no knock on the favorite, so I guess I have to include him.
5. Super Stock is by Dialed In a sire I have been watching since day one, he might be a logical closer.

Quixote Racing Stable’s imaginary horse stable is going to the Kentucky Derby with Brooklyn Strong.

One reason to write this blog almost daily is that very few would believe this story if it were not written down in real time.

Last year I wrote down 20 horses from the June Ocala sale, and gave each a fictional name (they did not yet have an actual name). This is what I wrote last June 14th:

Quixote’s Bargain (now Brooklyn Strong)

Wicked Strong was a $5,000 value sire that I had some interest in before the sale. He was not a great at 2, but but then won the Wood Memorial and the Jim Dandy. Then at 4 he got 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a length behind Tonalist. A stamina sire too be sure.

Hip #359 was one my top 12 coming into the sale. The Wicked Strong colt is by a Meadaglia de Oro mare named Riviera Chic who ran solid 96 in a small stake at Kentucky Downs. The second dams sire is stamina source Thunder Gulch. He was consigned by a small pinhooker, Coastal Equine, that also consigned my favorite colt #762.

No one expected this colt to work fast, and he did not at 10.2. That was disappointing, but not below expectations. It met expectations. I thought 2x the stud fee was a fair value. But when his # was called, the bidding stopped at $5,000. I was sure he would be RNAed, but I got him for 1x the stud fee. It was not the sale “bottomer”, but it was close (a few horses sold for $4,000).

In the real world this horse was bought by Mark Schwartz. Mr. Schwartz’s horses have yet to win a race in 24 tries mainly at Penn National. I wish him luck with this one.

Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus. You could come to this sale, sit next to Bob Baffert and the Prince of Wherever, watch guys bid over $1,000,000 for a horse, but then walk away with a decent horse for $5,000. This is what make horse racing great, it requires the big shots, but it always requires thousands of Marl Schwartz’s to make the sport function.

When this horse walks to the gate for his first race, Mark will have all the excitement of any Triple Crown race.

I will call this horse

Quixote’s Bargain

until he gets a real name.

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If you had asked me the odds on any of my 20 selections getting to the Kentucky Derby I might have optimistically said 20-1, but I certainly would not have expected it to be my $5,000 horse for a winless owner. The odds of that might be 1000-1.

Some might claim there was a lot of luck in this selection. I would counter that by arguing that this is exactly the type of “plodder/plodder” horse I have been advocating since I started writing this blog. The sire (Wicked Strong) is a stamina influence that nobody was interested in. The mare was by the great Medaglia d’ Oro, and won a 1 3/8 allowance race at Gulfstream. The mare had produced two $70,000+ winners in three tries, and the nick was rated A. The second dam was by the great stamina influence Thunder Gulch. This is exactly the type of horse I was looking for. I found him, and wrote it down.

It is quite possible this horse will cost me thousands of dollars. I will certainly have to bet him in the Derby (at least underneath in a superfecta). Does he have a chance of winning? He has a better chance of winning than he did to get to the Derby from his humble beginning. His Remsen was a strong race. BS beat real contender Known Agenda by several lengths. BS is third off the layoff, and Rispoli is the perfect patient jockey. If the leaders go 46.00, you never who picks up the pieces. Crazier things have happened before. The late ship to Churchill is not ideal. If BS beats half the field it will be a victory.

More importantly, this horse could cost me more money than any other horse.

Brooklyn Strong is the perfect example that you do not need to be a bloodstock expert to pick a horse out of a sale. You do have to have the “courage of your convictions”.

Will I be tempted to buy my own $5,000 horse out of a sale some day? Stay tuned to this channel.

As Al Michael’s said “Do you believe in miracles?”

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I also have the 2nd choice in the Pat Day mile with Dream Shake. I selected him after the Timonium sale where I learned about sire Twirling Candy for the first time. Could Quixote Racing Stable get an improbable double?

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I need to do a better job of keeping track of the big filly prep races. Most of my good imaginary horses have been colts, so I slipped in my coverage of the filly preps.

The Kentucky Oaks this year is a race for royalty. All the good horses are either expensive yearlings, or home-breds with fancy pedigrees. There are no 2 year old in training runners in the field. One of the 50-1 shots was a $65,000 yearling, but nothing else was cheap.

The #2 horse Maracula is owned by a group called Beach Haven Thoroughbreds. This group has a website that discusses partnerships, but with no mention with there success with this horse. Either they are the least promotional folks on Earth, or there is something unusual about this horse. It shows as a $200,000 yearling buy, with Jason Servis as agent. Draw your own conclusions. No other partnership has a horse in the race.

It is interesting to note that all the sires have a distinct stamina influence. There are no Into Mischief’s or Uncle Mo’s to be found. Curlin, Tapit, and other relatives of AP Indy are the standard. There is a Dixie Union and an Indian Charlie, but most of the broodmares sires are also stamina influences.

Score 1 point for plodders and subtract 1 point for Cox/Crow milers.

Just a quick update on my real horses:

Quick Tempo is back galloping at the track after December knee surgery. We could start actual works in few weeks

Blonde on Tap is recovering from surgery in March and is still a month away from going back to the track.

Tonalistic needs a couple more gate works and he is ready to make his start. Steve Klesaris is optimistic he could be a good horse. He has been slow to recover after chipping an ankle is a stall accident last year. Hibiscus was offering shares in him a few months ago at a valuation higher than I paid

Super Saver is recovering from a virus, but should be close to running for the first time. She has been a slow developer, but Pewter remains hopeful.

Ribot’s Valentine is already in New York with Ray Handel, and should start working soon. It is surprising that this daughter of Point of Entry is progressing so quickly.

Frosted Angel was claimed away from us after winning her maiden race. She ran about the same figure (54 Equibase) and finish 4th in an allowance race for her new connections at Penn National (now trained by Flint Stiles).

Little Red Feather did buy my favorite horse in this sale for $195,000. That is a big price tag for a $5,000 sire. Mr Speaker has producer one decent runner in Speech, but not much else. The mare is a nice small stakes winner by Dynaformer, and the 2nd dam was a solid $500,000 winner.

LRF has done a nice job, and the horse is headed to the barn of Chad Brown. I usually cheer against Chad’s horses, now I would have to cheer for him. LRF has done most of its work in California.

My guess is the price tag would be about $15,000 for 5% plus $750 a quarter in expenses (roughly a rate of $5,000/month). As a filly there might be some residual value here, but not what a Mr Speaker filly is worth.

The seller was author Peter Vegso, who raced the mare. I am not sure I love the idea of a racing guy selling mares.

If I have to make a decision today, the answer will be no, but if these shares linger into next week I will have to think about it. I will know the exact financial terms in 30 minutes.

The Ocala sale came to an end with prices back to just about 2019 levels. The median price was about $50,000. The sale is a nice mix of premium price horses and bargains. There is something for everyone. The buyback rate was low and there were fewer “mysterious withdrawals.” (horses that work, but do not come to the ring)

The top 100 horses sold for more than $200,000. The sale topper was $1,500,000 for a Quality Road, then came $1,000,000 for an Arrogate, and Eclipse was third paying $875,000 for an Into Mischief.

I think the story was freshman sires were average at best. Practical Joke’s were average at best, and Mastery’s were disappointing. There was only one big Gun Runner, but the rest were disappointing. There were two big Arroagte’s, and the rest were average. The story was two big prices for Midnight Storm’s and Connect’s. Nobody would have guessed two Connect’s for over $600,000.

I am modestly excited by the group of 20 horses I “selected” from the sale. It is a reasonable mix of conventional ideas and plodder/plodder horses. A few horses were bid to unreasonable prices, but for the most part prices were about what I expected. From my top 10 after the works, only one was too expensive (my top choice by Mr. Speaker was bid to $195,000 by Little Red Feather), and one other was a mysterious withdrawal.

In general there was nothing here that pushed me toward 2 year olds in training. I am still firmly in the yearling camp. It still seems too early to be working such young horses 3-4 furlongs (remember the run outs are carefully timed by unofficial timers) so even a work reported a 1 furlong is really a 3 furlong work).

The partnerships were fairly active with Myracehorse.com buying more than a dozen, I counted 14 different partnerships that bought 47 horses in total.

My hero Mark Schwartz bought a sprinter looking Adios Charlie for $11,000. Last year he bought Derby entrant Brooklyn Strong for $5,000 at this Ocala sale.

West Point has called my bluff. On day 2 they selected my 14th favorite horse in the Ocala sale. I was not very excited by the first few horses WP chose, but that ended when they chose:

#346 – f – Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok – 10.1 work, A++ nick, 4/16 foal, $140,000

I would guess a 5% share will cost $10,000 to $15,000. Should I invest?

Hard Spun is one of those sires I will consider, but he in certainly not a favorite. He has become more of an “any kind of horse” sire rather than just a sprint/precocious sire like his father Danzig. In a world with few good turf sires to choose from Hard Spun is acceptable.

The mare, Veela, was a solid racehorse is her brief 9 race career. She won an allowance race at Santa Anita, and had a 101 Equibase speed figure in her best race going 1 1/16 on the turf. She never ran for a claiming price, so the owner wanted to have her babies.

Veela is the daughter of an obscure Irish sire named Bartok. Bartok was the son of an Irish miler name Fairy King. FK was a very successful sire in Europe. Veela’s mom was unraced, but was the daughter of very good stamina sire Navarone. The extended family is not very exciting. Veela did not get to the races until March of her 3 year old season.

Veela has produced 3 solid horses in 7 tries. The best is How Unusual a filly that won G3 going 1 3/8 miles on the turf at Del Mar with an Equibase fig of 111. That is impressive. Veela also produced to other solid horses that each won $80,000+ as turf routers. All these runners were bred to the California sire Unusual Heat. This is really Veela’s first offspring with an accomplished Kentucky sire.

The nick is rated A++, but the results are mainly from Australia because Fairy King is an important broodmare sire is Australia. There are no US runners of this cross that have made over $100,000. The foal is a little late, April 16th.

The work was 10.1 on a day the track was playing pretty fast. That make the work OK, but not great. I would prefer a 2f work, but maybe the runout was good. The consignor is a medium size Florida operation that seems to have quite a few stamina oriented horses for sale.

This horse was one of my top 40 yearling buys. He was purchased for just $30,000 in the Keeneland yearling sale. Maybe I should be a pinhooker!

The purchase price was $140,000. That is only 4x the Hard Spun stud fee of $35,000. In today’s market, that is fair price. It might even be considered an above average value. Two other Hard Spun’s colt’s sold for $310,000 and $240,000 at this sale.

West Point had great success with a Hard Spun filly in California named Hard Not To Love. She won a G1, earned $600,000 plus and will be sold this fall in foal to Curlin. She was a $400,000 purchase as a yearling. She was better at 7f than two turns.

In many ways this horse is exactly the type of unconventional idea that interests me.

1. It’s a filly, so maybe the risk is a little less if there is some residual value
2. The breeding is obscure enough that not everyone will understand it
3. The mare has produced a 1 3/8 mile turf stakes winner, you will not find that in 90% of the horses bought by partnerships.
4. The price paid is reasonable, maybe even good.

On day 1, West Point, Eclipse, MyRacehorse.com, and Ironhorse bought sprint/precocious oriented horses that I have little interest in. It will be interesting to see if any of these horses ever wins a two turn race. Dare to Dream bought a reasonable Tapizar for $45,000, from a Tiznow mare with some stamina credentials.

On day 2 the partnerships went crazy and bought 16 horses. WP went for a $320,000 Midnight Storm and a $750,000 Arrogate. Eclipse stayed cheap. Myracehorse.com hauled in 4 big dollar horses. Five small partnerships also bought their first horse.

The interesting quote of the day came from the Zilla boss who said after buying two Tapiture’s:

“We can’t afford do buy a horse that has a page” (meaning pedigree).

On day 3 Myracehorse.com was the big player buying 5 horses, while Eclipse and West Point were silent. I did not understand Zilla paying $200,000 for a First Samurai, or LRF paying $195,000 for a Mr Speaker. It was good too see Victory stepping in for a $75,000 Declaration of War.

On day 4 the partnership were quite, except for Eclipse taking a big $875,000 swing at an Into Mischief. Hibiscus bought two interesting cheap horses, and Pinnacle took there first swing.

West Point:

1. Laoban – #237 – $240,000
2. Morning Line – #275 – $310,000
3. Midnight Storm – #305 – $320,000
4. Hard Spun – #364 – $140,000
5. Arrogate – #490 – $750,000

Eclipse:

1. Not This Time – #124 – $125,000
2. Street Boss – #180 – $125,000
3. Jimmy Creed #406 – $50,000
4. Bal a Bali – #541 – $20,000
5. Into Mischief – #1039 – $875,000

Myracehorse.com:

1. Not This Time – #62 – $250,000
2. Distorted Humor – #185 – $550,000
3. Upstart – #394 – $450,000
4. More Than Ready – #414 – $250,000
5. Maclean’s Music #429 – $400,000
6. Violence – #575 – $220,000
7. Flatter – #644 – $625,000
8. Tonalist – #671 – $80,000
9. Tapit – #672 – $230,000
10. Union Rags – #721 – $140,000
11. Malibu Moon – #870 – $200,000
12. Malibu Moon – #941 – $140,000
13. Laoban – #1214 – $100,000

Ironhorse:

1. Practical Joke – #204 – $150,000
2. Bernardini – #372 – $50,000

Dare to Dream:

1. Tapizar – #267 – $45,000

Hibiscus Stable:

1. Violence – #641 – $60,000
2. Flatter – #501 – $30,000
3. Freud – #430 – $24,000
4. Carpe Diem – #390 – $34,500
5. Star Guitar – #1112 – $15,000
6. Connect – #1148 – $20,000
7. Connect – #588 – $15,000

Bona Venture:

1. Speighster – #440 – $70,000

Pewter Stable:

1. Malibu Moon – #444 – $45,000
2. Tonalist – #534 – $15,000
3. Fast Anna – #901 – $40,000

Zilla Racing:

1. Tapiture – #446 – $120,000
2. Tapiture – #496 – $85,000
3. First Samurai – #817 – $200,000

Little Red Feather:

1. Midnight Lute – #525 – $215,000
2. Cupid – #653 – $125,000
3. Mr Speaker – #882 – $195,000

Victory Racing Partners:

1. Declaration of War – #730 – $75,000

Bourbon Lane Stables:

1. Bernardini – #972 – $255,000

Pinnacle Racing:

1. Uncle Vinny – #1086 – $25,000

Maverick Racing/Commonwealth

1. Midnight Storm – #297 – $550,000
2. Curlin – #656 – $250,000

This post will accumulate a group of horses from this sale.

Day 1 turned from disappointment to excitement when Double O Racing worked out a private sale to purchase #88 for $85,000. At first it was announced as RNA for for $98,000, but about 2 hours later the private sale was recorded for $85,000. I am not sure how that is possible. Maybe the buyer gave a seller a partial equity interest? Double O Racing is a very small operation with a lifetime record of 2 wins from 15 starts. They paid a full price, but I think they got a good horse.

The most interesting horse of day 1 was #187, who sold for only $75,000 despite a 10.0 bullet work. The $75,000 price is almost TGTBT, but there are 20 Cupid’s for sale and this one has a very stamina oriented dam. The buyer is an experienced horse owner Lewis Lakin (the king of tire recycling). I love a buyer from the junk business.

There were some bargain horses available in the under $50,000 world, but prices were higher than I expected for many 10.3 and 10.4 works (maybe they had good gallop outs).

The expensive horses were priced about as I thought on day 1 with my favorites going for $220,000, and $270,000

Day 2 was a good day. My third favorite horse was landed for only $55,000 and went to Peter Miller (who was the agent last year for Get Her Number). The Shamen Ghost also went for only $55,000 despite a fast work of 10.0 (love those third tier sires). The Point of Entry got a little pricey at $120,000.

Day 3 was a disappointment because #882, my top choice, got bid up to a silly $195,000. It is fun that the buyer was a partnership, Little Red Feather, but I cannot invest at that price. Maybe $125,000 was the absolute maximum I could see for a $5,000 sire and a 10.1 work. Maybe I am just a cheap bastard? No I am sure, I am a cheap bastard. The best Connect also went for too much. My 8th pick by Astern was RNAed for $52,000. My 7th choice another Mr Speaker was a mysterious withdrawal.

Day 4 went well with my 4th choice selling for only $23,000. That is certainly a TGTBT price, but maybe the crowd is just bored with Honor Code.

Overall the sale went very well. This was aided by some late reporting private sales which eliminated a few RNA’s. It was tough to see my top choice sell for $195,000. In the end only 2 of my top 25 did not sell. There were plenty if bargains if you were patient. It would have been hard not to grab my 2nd choice for $85,000 on the first day, but I could have waited and got my 4th choice for only $23,000.

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Reasonably Priced Horses:

1. Air Force Blue – #88 – $85,000 – Double O Racing
2. Honor Code – #466 – $55,000 – Peter Miller
3. Cupid – #187 – $75,000 – Lewis Lakin
4. Twirling Candy – #559 – $120,000 – Barry Schwartz
5. Shamen Ghost – #477 – $55,000 – Tom Kagele
6. Classic Empire – #291 – $100,000 – Eric Long
7. Twirling Candy – #206 – $65,000 – Scott McDermott
8. Unified – #536 – $55,000 – Edge Racing
9. Exaggerator – #29 – $75,000 – Gayle Van Leer
10. American Freedom – #52 – $75,000 – Amad Abdullahtif

Bargain Priced Horses:

1. Honor Code – #1069 – $23,000 – P&G Stables
2. Astern – #846 – $47,000 – Twin Sports Racing
3. Gormley – #989 – $11,000 – Gaylon McGee
4. Midnight Storm – #338 – $45,000 – Mike Pender
5. Noble Mission – #256 – $30,000 – Joe Graffeo
6. Mastery – #1020 – $17,000 – George Weaver
7. Cairo Prince – #191 – $37,000 – Ted Barlas
8. Violence – #31 – $30,000 – Gayle Van Leer
9. Frosted – #239 – $30,000 – Rodolfo Garcia
10. Klimt – #366 – $30,000 – Cammarota Racing
11. Flintshire – #769 – $20,000 – Ballybrit

Expensive Horses:

1. Dialed In – #175 – $220,000 – Stevens Bloodstock
2. Mr Speaker – #882 – $195,000 – Little Red Feather
3. Liam’s Map – #144 – $270,000 – Radley Equine
4. Practical Joke – #1009 – $170,000 – John Gaynor
5. Practical Joke #899 – $170,000 – Red Baron Barn
6. Hard Spun – #364 – $140,000 – West Point
7. Hard Spun – #646 – $180,000 – Fazza Racing
8. Point of Entry – #403 – $120,000 – Atlas Bloodstock
9. Connect – #869 – $125,000 – Steve Young
10. Tonalist – #671 – $80,000 – Myracehorse.com

What if I really was going to buy hip #88 today?

This is a nice son of Air Force Blue. AFB was a freshmen sire last year and his average colt sold for $90,000 (fillies were $50,000) at the 2 year old sales. But when no star offspring showed up last year the bloom came of the rose very quickly. In 2019 the average colt yearling sold for $120,000, but by September of last year the average plummeted to $50,000. Is AFB already a failed son of War Front, or is it too early to tell?

I really like the mare here. She is a daughter of Kingmambo (sire of the great Lemon Drop Kid. The mare produced a $500,000 winner in Kitten’s Point. She also produced a colt that set a NCR going 2 1/4 miles in a jump race. To me that is a major positive, I guess Cox/Crow would not be impressed. The second dam is an unraced sister of the great Marquetry.

The consigner is a 60 year woman named Gayle Woods. She brings only 4 horses to the sale. She was born in England and has a breaking and training operation in Ocala. Is she related to Eddie Woods? I would rather buy from a small operation like this, rather than a consigner with 20+ horses. The horse did sell as a yearling.

Two AFB’s sold in the March sale. One with a junky 22.2 work went for $20,000, and another with a 21.3 went for $47,000 (a 10.0 work was RNAed for $90,000).

The first question is what price would be TGTBT? If the hammer fell at $30,000 would I be happy or sad? Greed says I should be happy, but common sense says I should be concerned.

I guess I would be very content to pay $50,000. This seems like a fair price and comparable to the March sale. There are 4 other AFB’s in the sale with two 10.1, a 10.3, and another 21.2.

Would I bid up to $75,000? I think I would. I might try to wait for #882, but a “bird in hand, is better than a bird in the bush”

Would I bid up to $100,000? That is a tough question. My experience in the stock market tells me have a strong price discipline, but should I go the extra $25,000 or have to live with my 2nd or 3rd choice for the next few years. A horse is not a stock you can sell two weeks later.

For the sake of this imaginary exercise let’s say I will go to $100,000 and not penny more (ok, let’s go to $105,000).

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Another horse to consider is #29. I do think that Exaggerator is a top 20 sire in my rankings, but I am willing to consider him. The work was 10.1, which is pretty impressive for a slow moving turf oriented horse. The nick is rated A++. The horse was RNAed for $67,000 as a yearling.

Maybe it is just silly to try to buy this horse for under $50,000. Again I might go to $75,000, but not to $100,000. This horse has less upside, but also less downside.

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#144 is a very conventional daughter of Liam’s Map. The Tapit mare is solid, but not spectacular. The work was 10.1. The nick is A++, think Colonel Liam.

Would be a bargain for $150,000, but might pay up to $300,000.

This is a just for fun exercise, but let’s see what happens. There are 3 CL’s with faster works later in the sale, maybe we can strike early. This is an attempt to play with the “cool kids”.

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What will it cost to buy a 10.0 work? We will see with hip #175 by Dialed In. To me a realistic price would be $200,000. A Dialed In wining the Arkansas Derby will effect this price. Let’s see if it gets crazy.

Another 10.0 work is #187 by Cupid. I love the El Prado mare, but I wish I did not have to pay for the work. Maybe this horse is a bargain at $150,000? There are 20 other Cupid’s to choose from, including a 20.2 work

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Marginal ideas are #167 by Keen Ice, #31 by Violence, #256 by Noble Mission, #273 by Midnight Storm, #52 by American Freedom.

These are all marginal horses that might be worth up to $50,000

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To further confuse the potential buyer, there are now another 500+ two year olds to evaluate in the catalog for the Fasig-Tipton sale in May.

You cannot bid on a horse in Ocala without at least considering what you might be missing at Timonium. This sale might be considered more of a select sale. It also differs because the works are on dirt not on Poly like Ocala.

At first glance here is what I see:

1. Only one uninteresting Honor Code
2. Two very marginal Cairo Prince’s of interest
3. Gormley’s #57, #88, #183, from 12 to choose from
4. Midnight Storm #477 out of 8 to choose from
5. Connect #270, #395, #501
6. No Mr. Speaker’s
7. No Point of Entry’s that are ok
8. Twirling Candy #26
9. Unified #128, #283 (my favorite),#333
10. no interesting Tonalist’s, Summer Front’s, LDK’s, Liam’s Map, Dialed In
11. Union Rags #60, #174
12. Noble Mission #108 (very nice)
13. Cupid #235
14. Astern #52, #241 (interesting)

If I were looking to buy one horse for $75,000 or less what would ! actually do?

I guess I would wait to try any buy #882 for less than $50,000 and maybe stretch to $75,000 if prices were similar to Ocala March. I would be very tempted to jump at #88 the Air Force Blue, or #466 the Honor Code if they sold for under $50,000.

If I were looking to buy one horse for $150,000 or less what would I actually do?

I would try for #144 Liam’s Map, or #175 Dialed In, or #187 Cupid.

If I were only going to spend $25,000?

I would have to look further down my list to a workout of 10.2 or worse. Maybe a Gormley, Midnight Storm, or Honor Code with a bad work.

I will also build a 20 horse list similar to last year. It will have wide variety of horses and price points. It will be fun to see if any partnership buys any of my horses, but I doubt it.

The pressure is on to replicate last years results. Of the 20 horses I “selected” from the big Ocala sale, several have been quite successful:

1. Get Her Number – Dialed In – fast closing 4th in the Arkansas Derby -$47,000
2. Dream Shake – Twirling Candy – could still run in the Derby – $75,000
3. Brooklyn Strong – Wicked Strong – winner of the G2 Remsen – $5,000
4. Shea D Summer – Summer Front – small stakes winner in Florida – $35,000
5. Whatmakessammyrun – We Miss Artie – MSW winner at Belmont – $30,000
6. Jeebar – Frosted – MSW winner at Gulfstream – $65,000
7. Risky Reward -Mshawish – MSW winner at Churchill – $30,000
8. Bode’s Tipsy – Bodemeister – MSW winner at Woodbine – $20,000
9. Tap Dance Fever – MSW winner at Tampa – $17,000
10. Cane Creek Road – Bayern – MC winner at FG – $100,000

Add to these the results, Quick Tempo who was a $75,000 Ocala purchase, who won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at FG, and was on the Derby trail for 12 hours before getting hurt.

Given these strong results, maybe I should forget about yearlings.

There is a reason most of these horses are in a 2 year old in training sale.

They do not have very good pedigrees. If they had good pedigrees, some real buyer would have outbid a pinhooker at the yearling sale.

There are a lot of horses with unraced mares, sprinter mares, or ugly pedigrees.

If you really look at it, the idea of buying yearlings becomes even more attractive.

Let’s go back to the April 2019 Ocala April sale and look at the prices paid:

1. the top 3 horses sold for $1,000,000+
2. the top 15 horses sold for at least $500,000
3. the top 50 horses sold for at least $300,000
4. the top 100 horses sold for at least $200,000
5. the top 200 horses sold for at least $100,000

The Gulfstream sale was only 120 horses that year, compared to 180 this year.

Given the strength is the March Ocala sale, I would expect price to be similar, or slightly high this year.

If I were going to invest in 2 year olds, rather than yearlings, what would I like to see?

SIRE

This is the most important variable. I would like to a horse from my list of most undervalued sires. Right now that list is

1. Honor Code
2. Point of Entry
3. Twirling Candy
4. Midnight Storm
5. Gormley
6. Cairo Prince
7. Connect
8. American Freedom
9. Mr. Speaker
10. Tonalist
11. Unified

Then is a list of sires I would consider:

Liam’s Map, Classic Empire, Violence, Frosted, Mastery, Union Rags, plus about 20 more.

Then there is a list of sires I have no interest in:

Into Mischief, Uncle Mo, and many other “popular” sires.

BROODMARE SIRE

Even if I liked the sire, any horse would have to have a broodmare sire that brings some stamina to the table.

If the broodmare sire is sprint oriented, I would consider a mare that was a decent router, or has produced two turn progeny.

THE MARE HERSELF

I would prefer a mare that actually ran herself, but would consider and unraced mare with a good pedigree.

I would prefer a mare that ran Equibase Figs of over 90 (I would prefer Beyers, but they are often not available). I will consider slow mares that are well bred.

I would prefer a mare that ran at least 10 times, but would accept one that had a short career if she was well bred.

I would prefer a mare that ran successfully over a mile, but would consider one that was bred to run long.

The EXTENDED FAMILY

I would prefer a horse where the 2nd dam was well bred for stamina, and/or was a successful runner. This is “nice to have”, but not required.

OTHER FACTORS

I would prefer to have a horse with a B+ or better TruNicks rating, but this is not required. Nicks are less important for younger sires, where there is less history.

I would prefer a mare bred and/or raced by respected connections, but this is not required.

I would prefer to buy from a smaller consigner, but this is not required.

I would prefer to buy a April or May foal (to keep the price down), but this is not required.

Being eligible for state bred racing is a plus, but certainly not required.

Right now I am very skeptical about first foals.

WORKOUT

I want to buy horses with average, or slightly above average, work times.

I would prefer a 2f work, but understand that many prefer a 1f work with a strong runout.

The top works are either too expensive, or if they are affordable must have some physical issues. The exception to this rule might be for very unpopular sires.

PRICE

The sweet spot is 3-4x the stud fee for mid-priced stallions, less for high prices stallions, and 5-10x multiples for $5,000 stallions.

I think you have to be careful of paying “too little”. Horses with great “fundamentals” that sell for 1-2x the stud fee should be considered TGTBT (to good to be true)

CONCLUSION

If you wait to buy the perfect horse, you will never buy a horse. Every horse will have some less than desirable characteristics.

For example let’s consider the horse Get Her Number who recently finished a fast closing 4th in the Arkansas Derby:

Dialed In was not my favorite sire, but he was acceptable. He was in my top 20

Bernstein is not my favorite broodmare sire, but the 2nd and 3rd dam were very good (Fusaichi Pegasus and Irish River). The third dam was second in a French G1.

The mare tried 10 times and never ran better than 75 Equibase fig, and earned $30,000. Her first foal had won $3,000. This was her second foal.

The nick was A+, and he was an April foal.

He worked an above average 21.0, only 30 horses worked better than 21.0, out of about 150 that tried 2f

This horse sold 2.35x the stud fee of $20,000.

Was Get Her Number the perfect horse? He was not. There were positives and negatives.

He was by a decent stamina sire, with a well above average female family, with a good nick rating. He only sold for 2.35x.

Relative to the other horses available, he was a solid choice. He has won $276,000, a G1 at Santa Anita, and he could still win the Belmont or Travers.

These are the partnerships I expect to be active:

1. Dare to Dream
2. West Point
3. Eclipse
4. myracehorse.com
5. Little Red Feather
6. Ironhorse
7. Kenwood
8. Zilla
9. Bourbon Lane
10. Pewter
11. Hibiscus

Remember that about half of the partnerships focus on yearling. I do not expect to hear from.

1. Starlight
2. Centennial
3. Donegal
4. Ten Strike
5. Blue Streak
6. Funky Munky

It is not clear what some of the smaller operations are doing. I will be watching for groups like Pocket Aces, Wasabi, Brilliant, and about 20 others.

Just for fun let’s do the top 15 horses in the sale with no regard for price. This is top horses to win the Kentucky Derby/Oaks next year.

Another way to think about this list is horses that I would at least consider if they were bought by a partnership. I will most likely say, “that’s too expensive”, or if one of these horses sells for less than $100,000 I would certainly call it TGTBT (to good to be true).

1. #107 – Violence by Unbridled Song – 20.4 – $300,000
2. #144 – Liam’s Map by Tapit – 10.1 – $275,000
3. #207 – Empire Maker by Kingmambo – 10.0 – $310,000
4. #297 – Midnight Storm by Indian Charlie – 20.4 – $550,000
5. #175 – Dialed In by Aldebaran – 10.0 – $220,000
6. #559 – Twirling Candy by Broken Vow – 21.0 – $120,000
7. #1188 – Liam’s Map by Into Mischief – 9.4 – $235,000
8. #1135 – Connect by Rock Hard Ten – 20.3 – $685,000
9. #1009 – Practical Joke by Fusaichi Pegasus – 21.0 – $170,000
10. #786 – Pioneer of the Nile by Sharmdahl – 20.4 $575,000
11. #392 – Candy Ride by Giant’s Causeway – 10.0 – $365,000
12. #291 – Classic Empire by Tale of the Cat – 20.2 – $410,000
13. #853 – Frosted by Medaglia d’ Oro – 10.0 – $210,000
14. #320 – Medaglia d’Oro by Tapit – 10.0 – $725,000 RNA
15. #187 – Cairo Prince by Smart Strike – 10.1 – $335,000

I really am not that impressed with the Arrogate’s, Gun Runners, Into Mischief’s, Nyquist’s and Quality Road’s with fast works. The mares are often sprint oriented, unaccomplished, or both. With the more expensive sires, it appears that pinhookers were not willing to make the investment in quality mares.

The times were even more difficult to measure at the wind picked up, some gusts were as high as 20 mph.

There was only 1 work of 9.4 and 7 works 10.0. The prior day there were 24 works of 10.0. The number of 2f works also stayed low with 19, compared to 33 on the first day.

There were 37 works of 10.4 or higher on day 4 compared just 13 on day 1, 3 on day 2, and 11 on day 3.

I will look much harder at the 10.2’s for this day. I know I was not as aware of day to day fluctuations last year.