My conversation with Mr. Little of Centennial also helped me understand an important issue.
When buying expensive colts, there is more emphasis on the “can he be a stallion” question than I realized. The real upside in colts is not racing, but breeding.
This explains why so many expensive colts are bought with dams that are unraced or seldom raced. The dams also have had few foals, and often the new colt is the first foal of an unraced dam.
Why are the buyers of expensive colts looking for completely unaccomplished dams? They want to buy as much horse as they can, without “paying up” for the racing ability of the dam or her children.
I have heard many buyers cite the positive, “I bought a colt out of a very young mare”. It is not a positive because foals of young dams are faster, it is a positive because you have to pay less.
Consider this example very carefully because it is exactly the strategy being used by Centennial, Starlight, and others:
I am shopping for a son of Gun Runner because I want to be the first “son of Gun Runner” to get to the breeding shed. Not everyone can afford to pay $70,000 for Gun Runner, but there is plenty of demand for a $20,000 “son of Gun Runner”.
It would seem that you would want your new “son of Gun Runner” to have as much pedigree as possible, but that assumption would be wrong. It is 100% acceptable that the dam of “son of Gun Runner” is unraced and never had another foal. Why?
Let’s say you buy “son of Gun Runner” for $250,000 at a yearling sale. The mare is the daughter of a highly respected stallion, but is unraced and this is her first foal. Your colt must be great looking to pay so much for a young horse from an unaccomplished mare. Let’s say with a little racing luck your new “son of Gun Runner” is able to win the Florida Derby a Grade 1 race. His career at stud is now almost a certainty. On “son of Gun Runner’s” pedigree page his mother is still unraced, but suddenly she is the producer of a Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby. None of the mare’s other foals have ever failed, because they have never raced.
This strategy is very counter-intuitive, but it is a reality.
If you go to a yearling sale and buy a son of Gun Runner out a Grade 1 winning mare that has also produced five other graded stakes winners you are going to pay $750,000 for an average looking horse The preferred alternative is to buy a great looking son of Gun Runner, that is the first foal out an unraced mare for less than $250,000.
This is exactly the strategy that Centennial and Starlight are using. My example is an over-simplification of the strategy, but it is the general outline. This strategy has significant implications when trying to value young colts.
Buying A Race Horse 