Author Archives: Gregg Jahnke

Another strange day at Ocala. No works of 9.4 today, but a huge number of 10.0’s. Maybe the surface is unchanged, but the jockeys are getting bigger head starts. A Cupid was one of the 20.2 bullets today. I may need to take a harder look at the 10.2’s, or maybe the 21.3’s The TDNContinue reading “Day 3 at Ocala”

Let’s look at the horse with the fastest work on the first day of the under tack show and see what we can learn. This is hip #107. The work was 20.3 for 2 furlongs. I would guess the horse will sell for at least $250,000, but most likely $500,000 or more. The pinhooker paidContinue reading “The Perfect Pinhook”

The times were a little faster on day 2 of the Ocala sale. There were 5 works of 9.4, compared to none yesterday. There were also only 13 works of 10.3 compared to 24 yesterday. There had been a big storm on Saturday night which, postponed the first day of works until Monday. Usually thatContinue reading “Tricky Day 2 at Ocala”

I will use this post to build my list after each day’s works. #882 – f – Mr. Speaker – Happiness Is by Dynaformer – 4/8, very solid mare, C+ nick, learned about this sire at Lone Star, might run 2 miles, worked 10.1, not sold as a yearling #88 – c – Air ForceContinue reading “Building My List For Ocala April”

I want my horses “just right” Not “too fast”, not “too slow”, but just right. Today was the first day of the Ocala under tack show. I was interested in 16 horses. 5 were so slow they did not bother to work, 3 worked too slow, 2 worked too fast, 3 were just right, andContinue reading “Goldilocks”

Drop Anchor – Anchor Down – Black Coronas by Curlin – McPeek Reserve – Tiznow – Abtassaama – by Distorted Humor – Moquett Time is Yours – Not This Time- Belle’s Finale by Ghostzapper – Kelly Von Hemel Bullseye Beauty – Dialed In – Figure of Beauty by Street Cry – McKeever We add aContinue reading “Interesting Horses 4/9”

Only four days after the Lone Star sale, the under tack show for the Ocala sale begins. They will work about 175 horses per day for the next 7 days. The strategy will remain the same. Let’s find horses with some stamina is their pedigrees that still have an average work (what I would callContinue reading “On to Ocala April”

The bull market in horses continues. Average and median prices were up 35-40% compared to the 2019 sale. The buyback rate was only 15%, and there were very few mysterious withdrawals. What was really surprising was the bottom end of the market. There were many horses with 11.0 and higher works that still got bidsContinue reading “Lone Star Results”

I have written several times that it the intention of this author to remain positive. However, the facts are the facts. I did a little research into the results of the 2019 sale held at Lone Star (the sale was canceled in 2020). It is a little difficult to do. You have to enter theContinue reading “Full Disclosure”

I went out and watched the under tack show for the Lone Star sale. To me the crowd was pretty sparse at about 50 people. About 90% of these folks were not even watching the horses run past the wire, so it make me wonder how serious they were. I saw one guy with aContinue reading “Lone Star Under Tack”

Why have some horses in a two year old sale already have a name? Is this an important variable? It seems that 5-10% already have a name. Being a cynical bastard, I worry a little about horses that already have a name. It makes me think the current owner intended to race the horse, butContinue reading “What’s In a Name?”

There is a small 2 year old in training sale at Lone Star this week. It is hard to judge the quality of these 120 horses, but just for fun let’s pick out a few before they work #26 – c – Gormley – Risen Day by Storm Day, B+ nick, 3/18 foal, mare didContinue reading “Lone Star Sale”

As the Derby preps com to an end, and the Triple Crown races loom, it is a good time to consider the stakes schedule for the remainder of the year. Even after watching racing for 20+ years, it is amazing how little I actually know about this part of racing. I guess unless you actuallyContinue reading “Stakes Schedule”

In the previous post I have the 50 horses that made to the final Derby preps. The main conclusion is the horses come in many different type, but you can see some trends. Where purchased: Yearling sale – 20 Home bred – 17 2 yr old in training sale – 6 other – 5 YearlingContinue reading “Conclusions”

Here is one thing I always wanted to do. Where do the Derby horses come from. In order to get a better sample size let’s look at the big preps: Arkansas Derby Wood Memorial Bluegrass Florida Derby Santa Anita Derby Louisiana Derby plus a few likely others Name Auct. Price Sire Dam Sire $ wonContinue reading “Derby 2021”

The race for the 2022 began today with the first 2 year old races at Keeneland. I have always wanted to keep track of these super-early horses and see what happens to them as they age. So let’s write down some names and keep track of them: Bohemian Frost (Frosted) the winner for Ennis DreamContinue reading “Derby 2022”

Back in the real world, I face an interesting choice. Dare to Dream still has 10% left in the American Freedom colt they bought in Ocala. A 2% share would cost about $2,000. Given Dare to Dream’s success with Quick Tempo, I really should give them a chance. They only paid $47,000 for this guy.Continue reading “Real World Dilemma”

When is a horse sale not really a horse sale? When not that many horses get sold. The most honest description of the Gulfstream sale that I read was “thin”. Only 67 of the 186 horses brought to the sale actually sold. The median price actually fell 20% from 2019 to “only” $300,000. There wereContinue reading “Gulfstream Results”

If I had money from investors and was trying to win the Kentucky Derby/Oaks, what would I do? I guess I would try to buy either #167 (Union Rag out of a Medaglia d’ Oro mare), or #148 (Practical Joke out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), both worked a “too fast for me” 10.1.Continue reading “What Would I Do?”

How crazy will the prices be for this “select” sale that was not held in 2020? In 2019 the median price of the 59 horses sold was $375,000 In 2019 six horses sold for more than $1 million, with the topper being $1.65 million 14 sold for $500,000 or more, 9 sold for $400,000 ofContinue reading “How Crazy??”

And the winner is? The results of the under tack show are in: 9.4 – 1 – 1% 10.0 – 9 – 8% 10.1 – 23 – 19% 10.2 – 36 – 31% 10.3 – 27 – 23% 10.4 – 15 – 13% 11.0 – 5 – 4% 11.1 – 2 – 2% 21.1 –Continue reading “Gulfstream Under Tack Results”

The “select” Gulfstream sale occurs in about a week. Since the median price paid is well above reasonable, I am not holding out much hope of finding a bargain. But you never know, so let’s try to be prepared. Ideas of interest: #167 – Union Rags – Mega Dream by Medaglia d’ Oro. Only aContinue reading “Gulfstream Sale”

After I go through this catalog the first time I come to one conclusion. The March sale is at least partially a “select sale”. This catalog has more “extra” horses with pedigrees that are very weak. There are more first foals and unraced dams. That is just my feel, there is no way I canContinue reading “Ocala April – Top 20”

The Ocala April catalog is out. It is 1200+ horses, with 20+ selections from the popular sires. It seems a little overwhelming at first glance. I will start with my top 15 sires, 10 new, and 5 old, and then some of my more offbeat ideas. I will try to slowly build this list overContinue reading “More Horses”

One handicapping angle that has worked well for a friend is choosing horses that had the misfortune of running against a “killer” (a very good horse). There was a maiden race yesterday at Oaklawn that fits that bill. Mighty Mischief ran an 81 Beyer first time out, and lost by a head. He came intoContinue reading “Interesting Horse #2 and #3”

This is a new idea. I have always wanted to keep a list of horses to watch. They will combine interesting breeding and usually be trained by guy/gals that can win at a price. These are not horses I want to claim, but rather horses I want to bet at some future point. IH#1 =Continue reading “Interesting Horse #1”

The partnerships were much more active on day 2. Let’s sort out the winners and losers. Winners: All those that chose not to participate: notably Eclipse, Ironhorse, Zilla and many others. I appreciate their price discipline Dare to Dream bought two below median horses, an Upstart and an American Freedom. I really like the AF,Continue reading “Partnerships Day 2”

What did I just watch? In the end it felt like this sale was much more of a “select sale”. I was very surprised by the strength at the bottom end of the sale. Take hip #557 near the end of the sale. None of the Classic Empire’s worked very fast, and this one workedContinue reading “What Was That?”

On day one of the Ocala sale I stayed with my discipline and “bought” two value oriented horses. On day two of the sale I got into the spirit of things and spent money like the “cool kids” do. Valuation be damned, I want the horses I want. I hope this will be a goodContinue reading “Expensive Horses”

I am still looking for a $100,000 horse, and a $200,000 horse. I was disappointed not to get my Midshipman #178 yesterday. Today I will pay up to $100,000 for #362. I know that this son of LDK was a $80,000 yearling, so I am ready to be disappointed. He is a full brother toContinue reading “Day 2 Plan”

One thing that I learned from the sale yesterday was how fast things move. The pace is 30-40 horses per hour. There are no breaks, and you cannot call a timeout. As prices were surging it was very difficult to quantitatively measure how things were changing. My guess of up 25% turned out to beContinue reading “Lesson Learned”

Prices were up sharply. The average was up to $114,000 from $90,000 last year and the median was up to $62,000 from $50,000. Prices were up 25% despite the fact that the quality of the horses declined. Last year I think some horses came to this sale because they knew the Gulfstream sale would beContinue reading “March Ocala, Day 1 Summary”

It was a fairly slow day for the partnerships at Ocala day 1: West Point bought two very sprint oriented horses, a More Than Ready and a Dramedy, pass quickly on both Eclipse bought a modestly interesting Cupid for $100,000 that I will at least consider Little Red Feather bought two interesting horses a MohaymanContinue reading “Partnerships”

Prices seem to up at least 25%. What should I do. I certainly need a better way to monitor prices. Should I change my budget, or keep my discipline. I the real world this would be a tough call. I will not pay more than $100,000 for my Midshipman, or more than $60,000 for myContinue reading “WOW !?”

Maybe next year I should stream the sales live. Last June I had a great feeling of excitement before the sale, now that feeling is more one of confusion and concern. Starting about 5 minutes late at 11:05 Central Time. #1 – $150,000 how much for a 20.3 Speightster?, iffy mare, – kind of smallContinue reading “Live??”

Should I join the Into Mischief craze? Practical Joke was ok around two turns, and here (#48), we add a LDK mare. The problem is the mare was never more than an allowance sprinter. The second dam was also a slow sprinter. The nick is A+. The interesting thing is the yearling sold for onlyContinue reading “Horses To Think About”

The question at these auctions is often: How little should I pay? and not the more obvious, How much should I pay? This deserves some explanation. I you are bidding on horse with decent pedigree and a premium work (9.4 or 10.0 this year) you really cannot expect to buy a horse for less thanContinue reading “How Little Should I Pay?”

What would I do if I walked in with $200,000, $100,000, $50,000, or $25,000. The idea is to buy one horse. For $200,000 my. goal is to win a G1, for the lower budget my goal is to earn the highest return on my money. In reality I would be waiting for the April OcalaContinue reading “What Would I Do with X? Dollars”

Actual price shown in bold. I guess as I approach this sale I really should have a guess for every horse just to judge how the sale is going. Mark me down as unprepared. My guess in the median 9.4 will be $120,000 My guess is the median 10.0 will be $80,000 My guess isContinue reading “Guessing”

Some ideas are so crazy it is difficult to say them out loud, or write them in a blog. This is one of those ideas. I was able to go to a small yearling sale at Lone Star last year. The best looking yearling I saw at that sale was a son of Shamen Ghost.Continue reading “Seeing a Ghost”

Let’s forget about price, and just pick my top 10 contenders to win next year’s classic 3 yr old races: #48 – c – Violence out of a LDK mare and a multiple G2 winning 2nd dam. I would go to $250,000, will West Point or Eclipse? Worked 9.4 #41 – f – American Freedom,Continue reading “10 Horses to Win the Derby or Oaks”

Last year there were 20% more horses, but only 10 worked 9.4, and only 45 worked 10.0. Was the track faster this year? It it possible this was a better group of horses? Let’s remember that the stock market was down 20% in the month preceding last year’s sale. However, we must also remember thatContinue reading “Final Results, and the Puzzle”

All ten of my top ideas were “blown up” by works that were too slow. What remains are ideas that are ok at best, and marginal at worst. There will be another 1500 horses at Ocala April to wait for, but it is still a good exercise to rank my favorite ideas: #178 is theContinue reading “Top 10 Ideas After the Works”

Mark Schwartz is my racing hero. Despite being a lifetime 0 for 26 at Penn National, Mark walked into last year’s June Ocala sale and left with a $5,000 son of Wicked Strong. That horse became Brooklyn Strong, winner of the G2 Remsen, and briefly on the Derby trail before being hit by an illness.Continue reading “What Would Mark Schwartz Do?”

There are a lot of similarities between investment business are the horse business. I started in the investment business in 1982 for a now defunct bank called Interfirst. I was always a “value” investor that recommended stocks that well unpopular with Wall Street. When I recommended these unpopular stocks, it was very common for meContinue reading “Investing In Horses”

It is not easy to find good two turn prospects in a sprinter sale. The first day of the under tack sale at Ocala destroyed many of my top ideas. Ideas #3, #4, #5, #6, and #10 all worked so slow they are not worth considering at any price (#1 was already withdrawn from theContinue reading ““Looking For Love (and Horses) in All the Wrong Places””

My claiming choices have been pretty poor, but I have to keep trying. Today’s choice is pretty bizarre. I will take the #12 of today’s 6th at Gulfstream. Dale Romans is the trainer. The price is $16,000. Her name is Tetrahydro. Claiming maidens that are 14-1 on board, is not a great strategy. This fillyContinue reading “Making a Claim”

We are now 5 days to the first works at Ocala. It is time to consolidate my rambling and pick 20 horses I really want: #479 – My favorite is still this son of Honor Code. I want to buy another Honor AP. Both Donegal and Centennial bought an Honor Code’s last year as yearlings.Continue reading “Let’s Get Serious”

One horse to use as a model for this sale is Dream Shake. DS ran a 96 Beyer in his first start, and today takes on Life is Good in the G2 San Felipe. TDN declared him a “Rising Star”. Last year I was not that familiar with Twirling Candy during the June Ocala sale.Continue reading “A Model”

Let’s look at last year’s March Ocala sale. Things were a little different because the FT Gulfstream sale was canceled last year. The stock market is up about 50% from the time of this sale. 681 horses were in the catalog last year: 10 horses went 9.4, all 10 sold for a median of $150,000Continue reading “What To Expect”

Maybe I have been too grumpy about the lack of turf horses available in the Ocala sale. The top horse on this list is certainly worth further consideration. #472 – Air Force Blue – Dynarama – I have been disappointed with the results of AFB so far, but maybe I should be more patient. TheContinue reading “Too Grumpy?”

On of the first articles I read was a report on “value sires” written by Chris McGrath at TDN. His leading value sire was Midshipman, the son of Unbridled Song that is now producing his 8th crop for only $7,500 a shot. He has 363 winners from 746 foals, which for a 3rd tier sireContinue reading “Value??”

Mastery will be a hot sire this year. The precocious son of Candy Ride is exactly what the cool kids are looking for. I want to find the slowest offspring of Mastery, and hope I can get a bargain price. Hip #502 is a son of an Ogden Phipps mare that could not win untilContinue reading “Messing Up Mastery”

No idea is too stupid to consider. Here are a few wild ones: #555 – Wicked Strong – Holy Roller – Last year Wicked Strong produced Brooklyn Strong at the Ocala June sale. Here the 2nd dam was a graded stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles. The nick is A #229 – Flintshire – SoContinue reading “Wild Swings”

OK, I admit it, I am a Dynaformer addict. I was a Barbaro fan (the greatest son of Dynaformer). I have cashed many tickets on late developing offspring of Dynaformer. I own 5% of a Point of Entry (another son of Dynaformer) yearling. I started in the partnership game by buying a son of TempleContinue reading “Addict?”

Maybe what we should be looking for is the average horse. Maybe we should not be chasing the dreams of hot new sires like Connect and Gormley, or even Honor Code and Cairo Prince. Maybe we should be looking for for sires that are fading, but not complete failures. Maybe that sire is Exaggerator. HeContinue reading “Maybe?”

These are the first mares bred to Cairo Prince when his stud fee was raised to $25,000. Let’s consider each vary carefully: #320 – Warrior Girl by War Chant – mom 3rd in Doubledogdare and a good producer, 2nd dam by Trempolino, lost to the Fasig-Tipton sale, maybe too expensive??, D nick, sneaky good, $200,000Continue reading “Working on Cairo Prince”

We are now two weeks to the Ocala sale under tack sale. It is time to get prepared. Let’s look at all the Honor Code’s being sold and try to rank them: 1. #479 – Ermine Slippers by El Prado – my favorite, the full sister to Borrego 2. #360 – Artisianal by More ThanContinue reading “Two Weeks to Go”

As a retired golfer I must admit that I frequently took mulligans during practice rounds. I will take another one right here before Jackie’s Warrior runs in the Southwest. Maybe I gave up too early on the Maclean’s Music story. The main evidence that MM’s can get two turns is Cloud Computing. This sire wasContinue reading “Another Mulligan”

My friendly West Point representative called yesterday. I told him I was 80% sure I was waiting for yearlings, but I would be watching for any unique 2-yr olds that might catch my eye. What am I looking for? I am still mesmerized by hip # 479 at Ocala. I love the Honor Code thatContinue reading “What Do I Want?”

Connect is a sire I want to really focus on this year. Let’s hope he is a slightly quicker version of his father Curlin. When I look at the Curlin’s in the FT sale, I see some horses I would really like to own. However, the $175,000 stud is not going to permit me toContinue reading “Mission – Connect”

I think the FT March sale (also called the Gulfstream Sale) will be too rich for me. It will be interesting to watch this sale to see what kind of prices are paid. I attended this sale in 2009 and remember the striking physical appearance of the horses. They all seemed big. The all lookedContinue reading “Fasig-Tipton March”

Just as the Ocala march sales was coming into focus, the catalog for the Fasig-Tipton select sale was released. This sale is two weeks later starting March 31. It is confusing because at least 2 of my better ideas for the Ocala sales are now in the FT sale. I assume they will go inContinue reading “Confusion”

It is hard to have a game plan until you see the works, but I have plenty of time so lets write one anyway. You need plenty of ideas, because 50% will be out or withdrawn, another20% will work too slow to consider In the real world I would most likely wait to see ifContinue reading “March Ocala Comes Into Focus”

There are so many interesting first year sires, it is possible that some will get overlooked. Let’s run with that them and see what we find. #6 – c – Klimt – Infinite Hope by Dynaformer. Let’s pretend Klimt is more than a sprinter, but anything combined with a daughter of the great Dynaformer mightContinue reading “A Possible Theme”

Just for the sake of discussion let’s reduce my focus on stamina and value, and then try to find 5 interesting horses from the Ocala catalog that might win the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks. #502 – c- Mastery – Exit Three by Medaglia de Oro. Mastery is my favorite of thee new speed sires.Continue reading “Conventional Thinking”

The pedigree goddess has spoken: http://www.pedigreegoddess.com/Articles/Freshman%20Sires%20of%202021.htm This is a very informative site. It has good descriptive thumbnails on each new sire, and important information about basic statistics. Her list for top freshman sire is: Practical Joke Gun Runner Classic Empite Mastery Klimt Mohaymen My list is: Mastery (let’s go with the Candy Ride angle) GunContinue reading “Freshman Sires”

I guess I feel the need to insert these occasional summaries so new readers do not have to go all the way to the beginning of the blog. My horse racing experience begins in 1997 with the building of Lone Star Park in suburban Dallas, Texas. My hobbies had been golf and blackjack. I knewContinue reading “Summary”

On February 7th Mike Piazza of Zilla Racing sent out an email with data for 25 partnerships for the years 2012 to 2017. I will not show the results because I am not sure if it was intended to be public information. If you are interested in this kind of information you should already beContinue reading “The Zilla Data”

Dare to Dream is offering a blind purchase of a 2-yr old at the March Ocala sale. Given their success with Quick Tempo I should be a a buyer, but I have my reservations. I have been concerned about their management of my other horse with them Blonde on Tap. I really would have likedContinue reading “Partnership Updates”

My favorite yearling, Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, is in this sale. Why is he here? Maybe the El Prado influence makes him precocious? He comes late in the sale at hip #479. A pinhooker paid $40,000. How much should I pay? Honor Code is my favorite son of AP Indy. ElContinue reading “8 Main Projects for Ocala”

I am not sure what to make of the March sale at Ocala. Last year West Point did not buy a single horse, and Eclipse bought only 2 (neither has started). Myracehorse.com paid $500,000 for an Into Mischief that has been a disaster. Very few other partnerships bought horses at this early sale. I getContinue reading “Ocala March”

It is time to make the real world decision to either buy yearlings, or buy 2-yr olds in training. Philosophically I am 90% sure I want to buy yearlings, but practically I am only 70% sure I want to buy yearlings. I do not like horses that are “rushed” to the track, so that pushesContinue reading “Yearlings or 2-yr Olds in Training?”

Of the 20 horses I “selected” at the Ocala June sale, I have 6 winners including 2 graded stakes winners. Of the twenty selected, 14 have run, and 2 more seem to be training toward a race. I think my performance has been better than West Point and Eclipse with these 2-yr olds in training.Continue reading “My Pretend Horses”

Quick Tempo (Tapizar) – recovering from knee surgery after winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fairgrounds in December Blonde on Top (Tapiture) – last ran 2nd to a nice Brad Cox horse is a $30,000 maiden claimer at Farigrounds. She had some “filling’”in her ankle after her last race. Tonalistic (Tonalist)- recovering from a stallContinue reading “My Real Horses”

When I last wrote, my 2% owned Quick Tempo had just won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at the Fairgrounds. QT was so fast out of the gate, when the cameraman picked up the horses coming out of the trees, he missed that QT already had a 3 length lead. The cameraman showed the pack, andContinue reading “On the Derby Trail, For 12 Hours”

I have always thought that horse racing should take a mid-winter break. It is really the only year round sport, and for a gambler that can cause problems. It is best to take time off and come back fresh. I think the same goes for writing, after writing a new post nearly every day forContinue reading “Taking a Break”

Yesterday I received a very well prepared prospectus and podcast covering Ten Strike’s 2020 yearling purchases. It seems they were a little late because they bought some horse it the October FT sale. There are lots of positives and negatives in this group of 10 horses: You have to respect the ability of Ten Strike’sContinue reading “Positives and Negatives”

I have been surprised by how fast many of the partnerships have dropped horses into maiden claimers. I know the old expression “you have to run them where they can win”, but I had expected more patience. I guess that is the problem with horses you expect to be precocious, is that if they cant’tContinue reading “Surprised”

I have always played with the idea of writing a handicapping blog. Since I have some time before the 2 year old sales start in March, I might experiment with some different formats here. My focus will be on the races selected for tournaments at Horseplayer.com. Below is an 8 race qualifying tournament (like aContinue reading “Handicapping ???”

I have become a big fan of the Daily Racing Form product called Formulator. It has a number of great features including showing the racing results for a sire’s top 20 progeny. With a few clicks I found out that none of Jess’s Dream’s 2 year old’s have run better than a 70 Beyer soContinue reading “A Great Product”

In just six months my stable has grown to small parts of 6 horses: Quick Tempo (2%) – Tapizar colt from a Dixie Union mare – running in the Sugar Bowl stake at Fairgrounds in mid-December – Dare to Dream Blonde on Tap (2%) – Tapiture filly from a Service Stripe mare – trying toContinue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Roster”

I bought a 5% interest in Frosted Angel from Pewter Stable. She had been claimed the previous night for $25,000 at Penn National. Pewter does these deals with no markup, so 5% is $1300 (remember you do pay sales tax) Frosted Angel is a daughter of Frosted by a stakes winning Bellamy Road mare. TheContinue reading “Entering The Claiming Game”

I finally broke down an bought a yearling. After watching dozens of offers go by from the big guys, I bought 5% of a Point of Entry filly from a small operation called Blue Streak Racing. From the very beginning Point of Entry has been my favorite turf sire. I have always been a DynaformerContinue reading “I Bought a Yearling”

Brooklyn Strong made a nice rally to get past the pace setter at a price of 7-1. The time was fast, but the very sloppy conditions make it difficult to evaluate. Note: The Beyer cam back as an impressive 94, but the mud still warrants caution. Owner Mark Schwartz went from 0 for 24 lastContinue reading “Miracles Happen”

Brooklyn Strong heads to the post today as the 7/2 third choice in today’s Remsen at Aqueduct. The 1 1/8 mile contest is a real step on the Kentucky Derby “trail”. 6 months ago Brooklyn Strong was a $5,000 purchase at the Ocala sales by an owner who 0 for 24 lifetime at Penn National.Continue reading “Do You Believe in Miracles?”

“A filly with a future” is what the Tampa Bay race caller said when Tap Dance Fever stormed home to a 7 length wire to wire win at Tampa Bay yesterday. That is the 6th winner from the 20 horses I picked at Ocala. She only cost $17,000. TDF is from a mare that ranContinue reading “A Filly With a Future?”

Flatter is a son of AP Indy that I have not considered in much detail. At $35,000 he is certainly not a bargain. He should be a great stamina influence, but I do not not really see his offspring winning longer races . Just looking at his photo he seems much more “stocky” than hisContinue reading “Thinking About: Flatter”

Just for a moment let’s throw value out the window. Let’s assume that I have an unlimited supply of money. Which 10 yearlings from the Keeneland 2020 sale would I select to win the Kentucky Derby in 2022. Quality Road – Chapel by AP Indy – $600,000 – nick A+ – Of all the fancyContinue reading “Let’s Win the Kentucky Derby”

The list below is my attempt at a masterpiece. It is the culmination of what I have learned in the last 6 months. There is an 85% chance it is no more than the crayon scribblings of a three year old with his first coloring book. There is a 15% chance the list is aContinue reading “Masterpiece ???”

After the Ocala sale I went back and retroactively picked a group of yearlings from the 2019 Keeneland sales results. My results have been horrible. This was different strategy where I tried and failed to pick expensive horses like the big guys. That was a big mistake. 50% are not working. Ouch. Sharp Rocket –Continue reading “My Yearling Performance”

I guess we should try to keep track of this mess in some organized way. Here are the Eclipse yearlings from their website: More Than Ready – Almada – $130,000 Arrogate – Astray – $250,000 Empire Maker – Black Chocolate – $15,000 War Correspondent – Capriana Curlin – Fifty Foot Woman – $310,000 Classic EmpireContinue reading “Yearling Rosters”

I want to keep track of some 2 year olds that I considered in the last 6 months: Ninja Kitten – a $67,000 Zilla purchase that I missed by a few days, working steadily at Belmont Strong Silent – Wicked Strong horse that Dale Romans pushed on West Point, $300,000??? Cargo – a Cal bredContinue reading “Keeping Track”

The previous post lists 70 horses that were bought at yearling sales in 2019 by Ten Strike, Donegal, Starlight, Eclipse, West Point, and Centennial. The average price is roughly $230,000. In bold are their racing achievements so far. 1 (1%) has won a G1 Stakes race, and a listed stake (Gretzky the Great) at WoodbineContinue reading “What Would You Expect?”

While we are looking at performance let’s go back and look at some of the partnerships who chose yearlings over training sales. The first that strongly pushed yearlings only was Ten Strike: Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker $370,000 – working at FG Amazing Rocket – Into Mischief $500,000 – not working Rocket Equation – FrostedContinue reading “Partnership Yearling Performance”

I will do a more detailed analysis of performance at year end, but let’s take a glance right now. From my 20 horses picked at June Ocala: winner of G1 American Pharoah, Get Her Number winner of Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont, Brooklyn Strong winner of Juvenile Filly Sprint Stakes, GPW, Shea D Summer winnerContinue reading “Performance”

Four different groups move into the Top 10: Dare to Dream – got me to the winner’s circle with Quick Tempo, did not buy many yearlings Centennial Farm – really like their 4 horse portfolio of yearlings Blue Streak – cheering for the little guy, bought a nice Point of Entry yearling, I own 5%Continue reading “Ranking Partnerships Again”

I have been asleep at the switch. Bernardini yearlings fell from an a median of $100,000 in 2019, to a median of $35,000 this year. This is his 11th crop, and folks are getting bored. Only $100,000+ sires have produced more G1 dirt winners than Bernie. Bernie stands for just $35,000. I have been focusedContinue reading “Thinking About: Bernardini”

The first Kentucky Derby Futures pool is out. I feel the need to take some action just for the fun of it. The best bet is probably to take the 3000+ other horses being offered at 3/2, but that’s no fun. Given all the COVID problems it is probably a good bet that the bestContinue reading “Kentucky Derby Futures”

There is nothing wrong with a good scoop of vanilla ice cream. There are certainly more exciting flavors to choose, but sometimes basic is good. A good scoop of vanilla is what popped into my mind when I looked at the 2 horse partnership offered by Bourbon Lane Stable. Both horses are very solid, andContinue reading “Vanilla”

It has been my goal to stay positive on this blog, but that can become difficult. A friend mentioned he had seen an ad for a James Bond horse partnership. After looking at Bond’s website I remain confused. There are plenty of horses to choose from, but no mention of where they were purchased, andContinue reading “Bond …. James Bond”

Value investors have a difficult life. They have to look at the things that nobody else wants. Rather than looking at Into Mischief or Nyquist, we get look at Brody’s Cause. Not This Time has earned the status of the next Giant’s Causeway, everybody else is a distant second. Maybe that creates some value. Brody’sContinue reading “Thinking About: Brody’s Cause”

One sire that I have been indifferent about is Liam’s Map. He always seemed a little overpriced to me ($30,000). His median yearling was $85,000 last year, but that fell to only $55,000 this year. Both Rushie and Basin and have been more miler/sprinters than stamina horses. No other offspring have really stepped forward. ByContinue reading “Thinking About: Liam’s Map”

I am going to add Unified to my top 10 favorite sire list. He is a son of Candy Ride that was campaigned by Centennial Farms. He did not start until late February, but won the 9 furlong Peter Pan just 3 months later. Injuries kept him out of the Triple Crown races, but heContinue reading “Thinking About: Unified”

These are my top 10 turf sires. I am not an Wae Front, English Channel or Kitten’s Joy fan so there is not much left. Point of Entry Summer Front Air Force Blue Cairo Prince Big Blue Kitten Mshawish Flintshire Temple City Mizzen Mast American Pharoah There is not much to choose from. The yearlingContinue reading “Top 10 Turf Sires”

The dust has settled. It is time to prepare for the training sales. What will I be looking for in Florida? My list has evolved over time. The emphasis is still on stamina, but some speed/precocity is starting to creep in, Gormley, Connect, and Unified all have a chance too be fast. This is myContinue reading “Top 10 Dirt Sires”

There are certainly many other strategies you could have chosen to build your $1,250,000 portfolio: you could have chosen 4 horses by Into Mischief, there are plenty to choose from you could have chosen either more proven sires, or all freshmen sires you could have tried more “speed oriented” sires you could have tried cheaperContinue reading “Other Strategies”

Here is the fantasy horse racing game I am proposing: pick 4 horses from the Keeneland 2020 yearling sale the total paid cannot exceed $1,250,000 the least expensive horse can be $100,000 you cannot choose a horse selected by a major partnership operations the winner is the most purse money in Grade 1 races forContinue reading “Fantasy Horse Racing”

When you get old you will find that you start dozing off at 9:30pm, and then waking up at 4:00am. To pass the time you start handicapping the Monday races at Parx. This is my entry into a contest at HorsePlayers.com. The event is a qualifier (or satellite in poker terms) for a NHC qualifierContinue reading “A Day at the Parx”

I have learned that writing this blog has improved my educational process. There are dozens of things I would have already forgotten if I did not have written record. I have invested in 4 partnership horses. Quick Tempo has bee quite successful, and the other 3 are works in progress. I liked the process thatContinue reading “What Have I Accomplished – 6 months”

The first list is the issues I have written about in the first 6 months, the second list is things I have actually done, or have happened: Intro: What is a successful horse? May 31, 2020 Learned about mysterious “withdrawals” from sales Began to understand “multiples” paid at training sales Explained “road less traveled” horseContinue reading “Review”

Let’s try to build a $3 million dollar portfolio of conventionally bred expensive horses with these general rules: avoid the most popular sires (Into Mischief, Constitution, Uncle Mo) avoid sires with little speed, or are late developers dam is a runner and/or producer dam contributes to precocity Conventional Portfolio Candy Ride – Dixie City byContinue reading “Conventional and Starlight”

I was surprised that Myracehorse.com sold old all its horses very quickly. All that is left is a offer to buy .001% of 14 yearlings for $50. I really did want to buy a share in their Honor Code filly, but I missed my chance. Let’s look at their group: Some of these were boughtContinue reading “Quixote vs Myracehorse.com”

I put together a fairly cheap collection of weanlings, but now I want just one fancy horse to cheer for. I started at the top of the weanling list. I went past several Justify’s and American Pharoah’s and stopped at this horse: Arrogate – Goose Lemon Drop by Elusive Quality, $150,000 Arrogate might be theContinue reading “Give Me a Fancy Horse”

I admit it, I am a cheap bastard. It is fun to dream about nice mares bred to sires I like, but those come at a price. Here I am looking for sires I can tolerate, bred to mares that have at least a small amount of talent or pedigree. Let’s see what I canContinue reading “Cheap Bastard”

My initial impression is that buying weanlings seems to be a very high risk undertaking. It seems to increase the chance you will end up with nothing. On the other hand this might be the perfect time to buy horses that the pinhookers already know will not be ready for the training sales. Let’s tryContinue reading “Buying Weanlings”

The focus of this blog is learning, so in that spirit let’s rethink the sire Hard Spun. To me Hard Spun’s tend to precocious sprinters. His offspring’s Average Winning Distance is a below average 7.3 furlongs. Hard Spun’s big win was the 7f King’s Bishop (now Allen Jerkins). Hard Spun is a son of theContinue reading “Rethinking Hard Spun”

Just for fun let’s buy 10 mares at the Keeneland Breeding Stock Sale. It will take a while for these babies to get to the racetrack, but we have to start somewhere. I will look for fairly young mares with pedigrees I think bring stamina to the table. I will look for them to beContinue reading “Buying Mares”

The Centennial portfolio is great, but I am not 100% convinced by the “empty mare” theory. What would I have done with $1,000,000 to buy four horses? I would have tried to find sires I like, and mare with “sneaky good” results and pedigree. Pioneerof the Nile – Uptown Twirl by Twirling Candy. $625,000 AmericanContinue reading “How Would I Spend $1,000,000”

Let’s compare the Donegal portfolio with the Centennial portfolio that I looked at earlier. Centennial has: Gun Runner – Truthful by Bodemeister $420,000, Forthright, not working, no races Nyquist – Chatillion by Ghostzapper $300,000, Greg’s Honor, working in Florida, 4 MSW trys in NY Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000, Videri,Continue reading “Centennial vs. Donegal”

I received an e-mail today with what Donegal Partners calls Derby Dreams 14. They have 8 colts in a partnership with the goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has raced Arklow, Keen Ice, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado. I had a very nice conversation with their founder, Jerry Crawford, this summer. He believes in buyingContinue reading “Quixote vs. Donegal”

The next group is the sires whose first offspring will be born in the Spring of 2021. Flameway – interesting son of Scat Daddy, great female pedigree, maybe my favorite of this class, $7,500 rating A- Demarchelier – maybe over-rating because turf sires are rare, pedigree is only ok, $5,000 rating B+ Catholic Boy –Continue reading “More New Sires”

The breeding stock sale brings in two new classes of sires that we need to rank. The first group in the new weanlings. Let’s rank them according to our level of interest. This ranking includes the stud fee and my guess about the popularity of the sire. Cloud Computing – This will most likely beContinue reading “New Sires”

Just when you think the sale season ends, it just keeps going. The work of a bloodstock agent is never done. It really is a yearlong business. The next sale is called the Breeding Stock Sale. It is confusing because it offers a combination of weanlings, broodmares in foal, and mares that could continue racing.Continue reading “It Never Ends”

Now that all the yearling sales are done, I really need to focus on one group of horses. I considered many different strategies and approaches. This list is summary of my ten best: Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse onContinue reading “Top 20 Yearlings”

I started writing this blog in early June, so the end of the Breeder’s Cup is roughly 6 months. Let’s review what I have accomplished: It has been fun to learn about the sales process. It has been educational to write about what I have learned. I think there is plenty I would have forgottenContinue reading “5 Month Review”

Quick Tempo ran a solid 2nd in the Nyquist Stakes on the undercard of the Friday Breeder’s Cup day that featured 2 year olds. He dueled a Wesley Ward horse through fast fractions, and lost to a Chad Brown horse named Highly Motivated. HM set the track record for 6 1/2 furlongs, not the recordContinue reading “BC Excitement”

The Breeder Cup is finished and it on the the Kentucky Derby preps. What are they? the Remsen , Jerome, and Withers at Aqueduct the Lecomte is the first at the Fairgrounds the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in late November the Smarty Jones and the Southwest at Oaklawn the Holy Bull is the firstContinue reading “What’s Next”

I guess that I understand the attraction of 2 year old racing much better after watching it so closely for the last 6 months. Juvenile racing adds plenty of excitement to the game after the Triple Crown season ends. Even though I now understand juvenile racing better, I am still pretty sure I do notContinue reading “BC Juvenile Racing”

I would say the day was 80% fancy horses (let’s say $200,000 buys, or $100,000+ sires), and about 20% bargain stories. There was just enough to hold out hope for the little guy Let’s make some observations on the races in reverse order: Classic – Speed kills, or certainly wins races. I guess I shouldContinue reading “Breeder’s Cup Review”

I am not sure that I can single Battleground, so let’s take a second try at the pick 5 Trying to have a $200 budget: Race 6 – maybe cannot go so deep against Golden Pal, let’s try just the O’Brien and the two Asmussens, add Saez for another speed 14, 3, 4, 5, 8Continue reading “Second Try”

I many ways the BC Juvenile seems like a final exam, but it is really more like the 6 week exam in a college course, the Triple Crown is the midterm, and next years Classic is the final. What can we learn from each horse? Jackie’s Warrior is a model horse. Owner Kirk Robison letContinue reading “What Can We Learn?”

Let’s take a shot at the pick 5 for BC 2 yr olds. Who is the best favorite? race #6. I cannot take a single in a 5 1/2 furlong turf race. No matter how good the horse is, I almost never single turf sprints. Here the favorite draws the #14 post off a bigContinue reading “Breeder’s Cup – Day 1”

The exciting news is that Quick Tempo will be a favorite in a $125,000 stake race on the undercard of Friday’s Breeders Cup races. The bad news is he is coming back on only 18 days rest. I would have preferred that the the Dare to Dream guys wait for a later race, but IContinue reading “Not Thrilled”

Would you believe that at the end of October that Quick Tempo is the 8th fastest 2-yr old in North America? Even more difficult to believe is that two other horses I “selected” from the the Ocala sale are also on this list. Whatmakessammyrun is the We Miss Artie colt that was sold for justContinue reading “Would You Believe”

Somehow they found another 1500+ yearlings to put on sale at Fasig-Tipton in Lexington. The role of these “second tier” sales is still one of the great mysteries of the sales process. As a determined value buyer I will keep track of these sales, but I feel like I am shopping at the Dollar Store.Continue reading “Another 1500+”

As we reach the end of October, has the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby already run a race? My first guess is that the answer is no, but let’s look a little deeper. Let’s first look at the 30 most expensive Keeneland colt yearlings last year: Aussie Pride – Curlin – not working BrotherContinue reading “Has the Derby Winner Already Run?”

Quick Tempo survived the 700 mile ship to Parx from Lexington, and won by 6 lengths in nw2 lifetime allowance for 2 yr olds. He earned an 11 fig from Ragozin, which makes him the 18th fastest 2yr old to run so far this year. Since he was given no more than a tap onContinue reading “A Tough Choice”

It is time to make another claim. I will take Scott Pond out of today’s fifth race at Keeneland. I am sure G Watts Humphrey will not even miss him. Lemon Drop Kid – Honey Lake by Dynaformer for $30,000 The mare ran 101 Equibase fig going 1 1/2 miles at Churchill, winning 5 ofContinue reading “Making A Claim”

This is a review of the status of horses selected at the July Ocala 2, 2020 two year old in training sale. With more than half the horse not working or unnamed, this sale really seems to have a lot of “problem horses”. This will be a good test of patience. #560 Summer Front –Continue reading “Ocala July Review”

I will be cheering for Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Early in this project I identified MacLean’s Music as a sire I was interested in. It has been fun to watch the development of this colt. Now that Jackie’s Warrior has already secured a stud career at Spendthrift, I guess he will beContinue reading “A Horse To Cheer For”

I stumbled across a very important website: http://www.pedigreegoddess.com/ The site, run by Anne Peters, has a great deal of educational material. There are excellent articles on breeding theories, and well as information such as the height of each sire. Some of the most important things I learned: The importance of using more than just NickContinue reading “Pedigree Goddess”

Let’s try to pick my favorite horse from both the training sales and the yearling sales. If I had to pick just one it would be: Hip #968 from the Keeneland yearling sale Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, 2/17 – $40,000 Out of the several thousand horses I looked at, why isContinue reading “Pick Just One – Quixote’s Pick”

One part of the puzzle that I do not completely understand is the business models of the stud farms. Obviously they buy stallions, and try to make money attracting mares to breed with these stallions. However, the farms are also buyers and sellers of horses at the sales, and often race horses under their ownContinue reading “Puzzled”

So who exactly is Woodford Racing? It turns out they are a partnerships group managed by the principals at Lane’s End Farm. Lane’s End’s is owned by the Farish family. The Woodford Racing website has a roster of horses, and a brief outline of their philosophy. The website does not appear to be soliciting newContinue reading “Woodford Racing”

You can choose to believe this story, or ignore it, but I do have witnesses. I do contend that learning all about the sales can give you valuable handicapping insights. Saturday at Belmont I was waiting to play the mandatory pick-6 payout, and had decided to skip the early pick 5 which had two horsesContinue reading “97 to 1”

The sale is divided into a “select sale” and an “open” sale for yearlings. I am not sure of the difference, but I will focus on the select portion. Ideas: #104 – f – Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief – $20,000 #105 – c – Keen Ice – Faerie Queene by Pure PrizeContinue reading “Ideas in Ocala”

I just talked with a very smart horse racing guy with 30 years of experience, and his strategy was to buy yearlings out of mares with almost no racing or breeding success. Maybe that is the right strategy if you are buying a $400,000 horse, but is it the right strategy if you are buyingContinue reading “Confused”

Blonde on Tap finished a nice 2nd at Keeneland in a 6f, $20,000 maiden claimer. The jockey switch to Mitch Murrill seemed to help relax her a little bit. After two starts where she flew to the lead and faded badly, here she rated and made a reasonable move in the stretch. The race doesContinue reading “Real World Racing”

My conversation with Mr. Little of Centennial also helped me understand an important issue. When buying expensive colts, there is more emphasis on the “can he be a stallion” question than I realized. The real upside in colts is not racing, but breeding. This explains why so many expensive colts are bought with dams thatContinue reading “A Very Important Piece of the Puzzle”