Positives and Negatives

Yesterday I received a very well prepared prospectus and podcast covering Ten Strike’s 2020 yearling purchases. It seems they were a little late because they bought some horse it the October FT sale.

There are lots of positives and negatives in this group of 10 horses:

1. You have to respect the ability of Ten Strike’s bloodstock agent to pick horses. Liz Crow has another BC winner this year in Aunt Pearl. She has had Monomoy Girl, British Idiom before that. She works for many other owners, but Ten Strike was one of her first clients.
2. Ten Strike also deserves credit for finding Brad Cox early is his career. Many of the better horses will go to Cox.
3. Marshall Graham recently won the BCBC handicapping contest. I think having the perspective of a gambler is a significant positive that other partnerships do not have.
4. The other partner is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). This is a very rigorous credential that requires a strong analytical ability. Your author is also a CFA.
5. The co-founders have day jobs and the mark-ups here are well below average.
6. The Ten Strike guys were leading owners at Parx and Monmouth in the last 10 years, so they understand the 2nd tier of racing better than many other partnerships.
7. You have to admire the creativity of any partnership that makes a $460.000 son of freshmen sire Lord Nelson their top horse. That is so crazy it just might be brilliant.
8. The second most expensive horse is a Classic Empire, a sire that I like. They also bought a Tonalist, and a Palace Malice which is not fashionable.
9. I like their Violence filly, with a Malibu Moon dam, but wish she was not a first foal.
10. I like the idea of the Khozan filly, but the price ($100,000) was a little steep
11. Ten Strike has been working with co-owners that allow them to buy more expensive horses.
12. Ten Strike has had solid 50% ITM performances from their older horses.

Negatives:

1. Last year’s partnership has not performed well, with only one winner (Swill). This is very difficult to evaluate. Crow says the other horses are still “percolating” and they have “bullets to fire”. I wish Ten Strike was more transparent about last year’s horses. Maybe they are just being patient, which is a good thing. The expensive Into Mischief and Empire Maker from last year have yet to make it to the track. To be fair these horses are listed on the website as unstarted, but I would have preferred a little more discussion on their podcast.
2. I am not a fan of the “pedigree light” approach. It is hard to argue with Crow’s selections based on physical appearance alone, but I am an arrogant bastard. I will continue to look for mares that add stamina.
3. I am a little concerned that some of the horses are only 35% owned. I am a control freak, and an arrogant bastard.
4. I am not a fan of Munnings. I know Ten Strike has had good success with this sire, but they cannot convince me he is more than a sprinter. Crow has already said last year’s Munnings may not get two turns.
5. I am not a fan of breeding their homebred to Midnight Lute, another sprinter.
6. I wish some of their picks had better nick ratings.
7. I am not thrilled by the “this horse could be ready for Saratoga” hints.

There are lots of positives here. I cannot get past the “pedigree light” approach. If you believe in speed, this is your portfolio. If you believe in stamina, then Centennial or Donegal are a better fit.

When the Lord Nelson colt (who looks spectacular is his photo), cruises to victory in next year’s Hopeful, I will look silly. That is the fate of a “value investor”