Buying A Race Horse

It really begins. Yesterday, August 11th, the Keeneland yearling sale catalog was released for the sale that begins September 13th. The sale has 4,272 horses, and that will last a week.

Add those horses to the 662 that Fasig-Tipton will sell a few days earlier. For good measure, there will also be 151 yearlings sold August 24th right in my backyard at Lone Star.

Over 5,000 horse to choose from.

Which is the right one? What a daunting task, but it must be done.

What is the best strategy? What will the partnerships do? Giving the 2-year old sales were slow, or worse, how will prices change?

When I started this blog the morning of the first works at the June Ocala sale, I was really jumping into the middle of the action.

The yearling sales are really the beginning of the process. Next year’s 2-year old sales will be a little easier to understand once I see the yearling sales.

West Point e-mailed an interesting offer yesterday at noon. They were offering 25% of a Wicked Strong filly that trainer Dale Romans had bought as a yearling. Romans was keeping 50% and offering the other 50% to West Point.

Wicked Strong was a sire I was interested in during the training sales, but I never really saw one that I liked. This filly is out of an Awesome Again mare, so I would have been interested from a pedigree standpoint. The horse is already working, so the risks are lower.

The problem is I had very little time to evaluate this offer because by the next morning the offer was already sold out.

The offer had been 5% for $15,000, with all expenses paid through year end. $300,000 is a high price for a Wicked Strong. Romans had paid $80,000 last year, which was the highest yearling price for any Wicked Strong.

Why would Roman’s make this offer to West Point? I would guess he has other owners that he buys horses for. Maybe he is trying to get more training business from West Point. It really is a poker game. Does Roman’s have the cards, or is he bluffing?

This will be an interesting horse to watch.

I am not sure this is the best way to do business. I do not check my e-mails that frequently so it would have been difficult for me to respond quickly. It is also mildly concerning that half the deal was gone before the e-mail was sent (only 25% of the horse was offered in the e-mail, not the full 50%).

On the other hand any reasonable offer is better than no offer at all. Let’s call this another learning experience.

I seldom cheer for, or bet on Chad Brown horses. However in the Travers today I will be cheering for Country Grammer.

Paul Pompa paid $450,000 for this horse at Ocala last April. The work was a nice 21.0, but 25 horses worked faster. However the colt has a late birthday (May 11), and there is a bunch of long distance Euro-pedigree under the 2nd and 3rd dam.

This horse qualifies as a plodder. Maybe if Tiz the Law duels with Uncle Chuck, Country Grammer can “pull a Keen Ice”.

By coincidence the Bloodlines Racing Partnership has an interesting horse in the last race so maybe I will play a double.

Until this morning I had never really thought about how horses prepare to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies. To me those big races were less important than a $10,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park. As a gambler all I cared about was finding complicated races that the betting public might not understand.

Today is the running of the Saratoga Special, which seeming to be an important prep for a Breeder’s Cup race that is now less than 90 days away. I guess I had some idea of the the different approaches to winning the Kentucky Derby, but I never really considered how to win the Juvenile races.

Let’s look at the last ten winners of each:

2019 – Storm the Court – Eurton – Court Vision by Tejano Run

1. $60,000 Ocala
2. MSW winner Del Mar 8/10
3. 2. Del Mar Futurity – DNF 9/2
4. American Pharoah – 3rd – 9/27

2018 – Game Winner – Baffert – Candy Ride by AP Indy

1. $110,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW winner – 8/18
3. Del Mar Futurity 9/3 -3rd
4. American Pharoah winner

2017 – Good Magic – Brown – Curlin by Hard Spun

1. $1,000,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW 2nd 8/28
3. Champagne Stakes 2nd 10/7

2016 – Classic Empire – Casse – Pioneerof the Nile by Cat Thief

1. $475,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW winner 5/24 at Churchill
3. Bashford Manor winner 7/2
4. Hopeful – DNF 9/5
5. Breeder Futurity – Keeneland winner 10/8

2015 – Nyquist – O’Neil – Uncle Mo by Forestry

1. $400,000 FT two year select sale
2. MSW winner 6/26
3. Best Pal winner 8/8
4. Del Mar Futurity winner 9/7
5. Front Runner winner 9/26

2014 – Texas Red – Desormeaux – Afleet Alex by Jeune Home

1. $17,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW 2nd Arlington 7/3
3. MSW 4th Del Mar 7/25
4. MSW winner Del Mar 8/20
5. Frontrunner 3rd 9/27

2013 – New Year’s Day – Baffert – Street Cry by Dixie Union

1. $425,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW 3rd 8/17
3. MSW winner 8/31

2012 – Shanghi Bobby – Pletcher – Harlen’s Holiday by Orientate

1. $105,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW winner 4/19
3. Track Baron – Belmont winner 6/27
4. Hopeful – winner 9/3
5. Champagne – winner 10/6

2011 – Hansen – Maker – Tapit by Sir Cat

1. Kendall Hansen – homebred
2. MSW winner – Turfway 9/9
3. Kentucky Cup Juvenile – Turfway – 9/25

2010 – Uncle Mo – Pletcher – Indian Charlie by Arch

1. $200,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW winner Saratoga 8/28
3. Champagne winner 10/9

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2019 – British Idiom – Cox – Flashback by Mr. Sekiguchi

1. $40,000 FT yearling
2. MSW winner Saratoga 8/15
3. Alcibiades winner 10/4

2018 – Jaywalk – John Servis – Cross Traffic by Orientate

1. $190,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW 2nd Monmouth 6/23
3. MSW winner Parx 7/24
4. White Creek Stake – Delaware – winner 8/22
5. Frizette winner 10/7

2017 – Caledonia Road – Nicks – Quallty Road by Dixie Union

1. $140,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW winner Saratoga 9/3
3. Frizette 2nd 10/8

2016 – Champagne Room – Eurton – Broken Vow by Bernstein

1. $310.000 Ocala April
2. MSW 2nd 7/16
3. Sorrento 4th 8/6
4. Del Mar Debutante 3rd 9/3
5. Chandeleir 4th 10/12

2015 – Songbird – Hollendorfer – Medaglia de Oro by West Acre

1. $400,000 FT yearling
2. MSW winner Del Mar 7/26
3. Del Mar Debutante winner 9/5
4. Chandelier winner 9/26

2014 – Take Charge Brandi – Lukas -Giant’s Causeway

1. $400,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW Churchill Downs winner 6/22
3. Schuyerville Saratoga winner 7/18
4. Adirondack Saratoga 5th 10/8
5. Pocohantas Churchill 5th 9/6
6. Alcibiades Keeneland 8th 10/6

2013 – Ria Antonia – Jeremiah Engelhardt – Rockport Harbour by Mr. Greeley

1. $9,000 FT yearling
2. Stakes Woodbine 5th 7/6
3. MSW Woodbine winner 7/21
4. Stakes Woodbine 4th 8/22
5. Frizette Belmont 5th 10/6

2012 – Beholder – Mandella – Henny Hughes by Tricky Creek

1. $180,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW 4th Hollywood 6/28
3. MSW winner Del Mar 7/22
4. Del Mar Debutante 2nd 9/1
5. Allowance 10/4 winner 10/4

2011 – My Miss Aurelia – Assmusen – Smart Strike by Sea of Secrets

1. $550,000 Keeneland yearling
2. MSW Saratoga winner 7/22
3. Adirondack Saratoga winner 9/10
4. Frizette winner 10/8

2010 – Awesome Feather – Gold – Awesome of Course by Gone West

1. Homebred – Jacks of Better Farm
2. MSW – Calder 5/1 winner
3. Stake – Calder winner 7/10
4. Stake – Calder winner 8/10
5. Stake -Calder winner 8/28
6. Stake – Calder winner 10/16

Conclusion:

The best conclusion is there are no conclusions.

Half the winners come in with either 2 or 3 preps, the other half have 4 or more.

About half are regally bred and cost $200,000 or more, the other half are not that expensive.

Almost all the winners have a speed/precocity influence in their pedigree, there were really no plodders. I guess that is one solid conclusion.

Only two home breds have won the Juveniles in the last 10 years, and only two from the training sales. Everything else, 16 of 20, has come from yearling sales. This is another conclusion.

One significant reason to write this blog is that I always wanted to investigate all the small partnership operations. Starlight, West Point, and Eclipse are the Apple, Amazon, and Google of the partnership business. I have always been a “small cap” investor that wants to find the well run companies that few others know about.

Bloodlines Racing is just such a partnership. Dr. James McGlinn is the founder and has been breeding and racing for many years. The racing record of the partnerships is 22 wins from 114 starts, with over $1.3 million in purses. One horse, Invading Humor, has 8 of those wins and over $500,000 in purses. The focus seems to be breeding NY-bred turf horses.

Unlike the other partnerships, BR breeds its own mares. They do not buy horses at sales. They also have a unique structure they call “One Time Cost”, where a partner pays a one time fee, and never pays any additional costs.

First let’s focus on the horses being offered, and think about costs later.

The first is a Noble Mission colt, from a War Front mare named Conquest War Miss. The second dam is by Dynaformer and was a stakes placed winner of over $200,000. CWM ran three unsuccessful races under the ownership of McGlinn, and was then retired to the breeding shed. It appears that CWM was purchased at the Ocala sale in 2014 for $150,000. This is CWM’s second foal, the first is by Awesome Again and has not raced. The colt is a NY-Bred.

I like Noble Mission as a sire, and I generally like any pedigree where Dynaformer is involved. If West Point or Eclipse offered this horse I would certainly look very carefully.

The BR offer is $1,900 for 1%, but this is a “one time” fee.

Twenty Noble Missions sold at the Keeneland yearling sale last year, the top 5 sold for $200,000, $110,000, $105,000, $80,000, and $60,000. Noble Mission’s stud fee is $20,000.

Now lets think about the “one time” fee.

Let’s assume the horse earns $100,000 in 2021 and 2022

For my $1,900 investment I would get back $2,000, and excitement of watching the races.

Now let’s assume the horse only cost $100,000 but I had to pay my share of expenses (lets say $70,000 per year). My income would still be $2,000, my initial cost $1,000 but I would making two expense payments of $700 each. The result would be a net loss of $400. So the “one-time fee” would be better.

What if the horse only earned $50,000 in 2021 and $25,000 is 2022. With the one time fee my net loss would be $750 – $1,900 = -1,150. Under the expense paying model my loss would be $750 – $1,000 -700 -700 = -1,650

I guess the scenario that would make the one time fee worse is if BR assumes the horse has little talent and drops him into a $20,000 maiden claimer after 3 races and loses the horse. In that case my loss would be higher under the one time fee.

In all honesty I am going to have ponder the “one time” fee structure for awhile.

The other critical question is how to evaluate a horse that has never gone through the scrutiny of a public auction. There are clearly positives and negatives.

The second offer is a Kitten’s Joy filly that is the first foal of an unplaced Blame mare. In this case, McGlinn bought the mare in a Keeneland Breeding Stock sale for $45,000. I am a little hesitant to buy first foals, so I will pass.

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Let’s try to keep track of everything else in one place. These are offers still available from various operations.

Dream Maker Racing has an interesting NY Bred:

1. Brian’s Mission – Noble Mission – (Jesse’s Justice) $55,000

I know nothing about this group, but I really like the horse.

Pewter Stables is still offering:

1. Malibu Moon filly (Prairy Cat) 5% for $2,500

Little Red Feather still has a few horses left, my favorite:

1. Cargo – Point of Entry $65,000

Wasabi Ventures has 4 two year old available. The three I like best are

1. Kaffeinated – Jump Start $12,000, 1% for $519
2. Mission Trail – Bellamy Road $8,000, 1% for $634
3. Shecanflatoutplay – Flat Out, 1% for $564

In all honesty the Jump Start is kind of interesting, not familiar with the trainer they are using Jesse Cruz. I need to learn Maryland racing.

Magdalena has one horse left. I will need to follow this group more carefully next year. I have always been a Ken McPeek fan.

1. Cross Traffic (Cool All Over) 10% for $10,000.

They have no list of their other horses, the website is confusing.

Bloodlines Racing has an interesting Noble Mission colt that still might have availability.

1. Noble Mission (Conquest War Miss)

Horseplayers Racing Club has a confusing website, but they have an interesting horse:

1. Summer Front (Love Handles)

DreamTeam Racing has an interesting horse:

1. Dramatic Twist – Effinex 1% for $1089

Zilla has done great with claiming ideas. I am still mad I missed:

1. Big Blue Kitten colt (Nieve)

Kenwood Racing offered a privately purchased 3 yr old

1. Adhwaa – Daaher $20,000 bought from Shadwell

This in an interesting group to keep an eye on, based in NJ.

Crowns Way is an interesting group in Chicago, with older horses and two 2 yr olds

1. Judy’s Way, their top horse
2. Tetsu, an good claim?
3. Melissani, another claim
4. Smokin Jay – Cairo Prince, $27,000, from Ocala sale
5. Joan’s Way – Cairo Prince , $30,000 from Ocala sale

I have not seen their annoying commercial for awhile, so in an effort to be complete let’s keep track of their horses.

These we all yearling purchases:

1. Moonlight d’Oro – Medaglia de Oro $625,000
2. Shared Empire – Pioneerof the Nile $275,000
3. Joyful Addiction – Pioneerof the Nile $385,000
4. Lady Valentine – Into Mischief $385,000

This is the “Filly Four”. The best I can tell they are no longer offering shares in this group

It looks like they plan to offer shares in four additional two year olds, that were bought in training sales:

1. Quick Conversation – Frosted $135,000 and another NY bred
2. Naismith – Medaglia de Oro $150,000
3. Thirteen Stripes – Constitution $100,000

For example the will sell you .05% of Naismith for $152, or 1% for $3040. I guess that includes expenses, so it not completely outrageous

Let’s also keep track of Bourbon Lane.

Below is their yearling group:

1. Queen Bourbon – Empire Maker $265,000
2. Bourbon Royale – Tapit $240,000
3. Rye Sense of Humor – Distorted Humor $180,000
4. Frosted Bourbon – Frosted $120,000
5. Hard Rye Guy – Hard Spun $125,000

I think this portfolio has been sold out for quite some time.

One thing I have learned is you have to keep checking back on websites. Every group seems to have its own way of doing things. Checking back on Centennial I find they are offering two different partnerships.

Centennial has a long history in the partnership business. They have campaigned horses like Corinthian, Colonial Affair, Unified, Rubiano, and Wicked Strong. Jimmy Jerkens is usually the trainer.

The first is a one horse deal. 5% for $40,000 of a very nice Candy Ride colt they bought at the Saratoga yearling sale in 2019 for $500,000. This includes all expenses through 2020. i had not seen this offer before, maybe I just missed it.

So rather than make the offer when they first bought the horse, they make it available now. i will have to think about that approach.

The other offer is a 4 horse package

1. Frozen Assets – Frosted $275,000
2. Khafre – American Pharoah $500,000
3. Orr – Nyquist $375,000
4. Royal Realm – Empire Maker $250,000

The partnership is capitalized at $2,350,000. This is interesting because it includes all the costs since the horses were purchased. This includes a fairly large insurance cost that allows the partnership to not offer units until this summer. This is a different approach than the others.

These are 4 very nice horses with more traditional pedigrees than Starlight or Ten Strike. Centennial is asking $58,000 for a 2.5% share, it seems there is only one spot left. Obviously this is a big number, but it might be the best risk/return opportunity I have seen

If not for the fact that the upcoming yearling sales might yield better bargains, the Centennial deal would be a very serious offer to consider.

Let’s also keep track of the Eclipse yearling purchases:

1. Astrological – Malibu Moon $350,000
2. Avenue – Quality Road $450,000
3. Aviano – Medalia de Oro $775,000
4. Demon – Into MIschief $150,000
5. Eagle in the Sky – Sky Mesa $115,000, 2 races already
6. Excursion – Curlin $325,000
7. Gretzky the Great – Nyquist $295,000, already a winner at Woodbine
8. Hidden – Uncle Mo $225,000
9. Honorable – Constitution $60,000
10. Modest – Flatter $175,000
11. Spanish Loveaffair- Karokontie $35,000, winner at Gulfstream
12. Speight – Speightstown $185,000
13. Thrilling – Uncle Mo $200,000
14. Thrive – Competitive Edge $65,000
15. Tunic – Empire Maker $410,000

Eclipse wins the prize for getting their horses to the races the earliest of the partnerships

Let’s also keep track of the horses West Point bought as yearlings. Of course, unlike Donegal, Starlight, and Ten Strike, you did not have to buy the entire portfolio,

1. A Longlongtimeago – Maclean’s Music $120,000
2. Arabian Price – Mshawish $235,000
3. Charity for All – Union Rags $50,000
4. Classic Colors – Street Sense $170,000, has run once
5. Elector – Constitution $65,000
6. First Captain – Curlin $1,500,000, with other buyers
7. Flightline – Tapit $1,000,000
8. Flying With Angels – Ghostzapper $500,000
9. Lady Traveler – Quality Road $350,000
10. Magnificent – Frosted $250,000
11. Martinez – Twirling Candy $100,000
12. Proud Union – Union Rags $55,000
13. Shadow Matter – Macho Uno $55,000
14. Steel City Beast – Big Beast -$75,000
15. Warn – Declaration of War $140,000

These are only the yearling purchases. The million dollar Tapit and the expensive Curlin both have mares that were multiple graded stakes placed.

Let’s layout the Ten Strike yearling portfolio now that we have names. I have a nice prospectus that describes the rational for selecting each horse and the podcast that discusses each horse.

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker $370,000
2. Amazing Rocket – Into Mischief $500,000
3. Rocket Equation – Frosted $250,000
4. Eight and Sand – Munnings – homebred
5. Swill – Munnings $265,000
6. Montgomery Park – Munnings $170,000
7. Lovin Lucky – Lookin at Lucky $140,000
8. Arrio – Paynter $50,000
9. Racy Jaycee – Race Day $24,000

The most expensive horse, Amazing Rocket, has little pedigree on the dam side. The Unbridled Song mare never ran better than 79 in her winless career. The second dam was solid, but was a pure sprinter. This is their prime example of a “modern” horse. You have to stare long and hard to imagine this horse ever being successful at two turns.

The second most expensive, Sharp Rocket, is my kind horse. Empire Maker, out of a Kingmambo mare that has at least producer some runners. The second dam is by AP Indy.

The contrast in these two horse could not be more pronounced. Let’s see which one works best.

The Frosted colt also has a great pedigree. Out of G3 winning Curlin mare, the second dam is is a 10 time winner by With Approval. I like this one so much I will add it to my Arrogant Bastard portfolio.

The three Munnings horses are exactly what I do not like.

I guess in order to be complete we need to look at Starlight.

What horses would you buy if you had an almost unlimited budget?

Here they are:

1. Spielberg – Union Rags – $1,000,000
2. Hopkins – Quality Road – $900,000
3. Classier – Empire Maker – $775,000
4. Tenor – Curlin – $800,000
5. Fenway – Into Mischief – $650,000
6. Hozier – Pioneerof the Nile – $625,000
7. Tarantino – Pioneerof the Nile – $610,000
8. Money Mike – Into Mischief – $600,000
9. Showpower – More Than Ready – $500,000
10. Carrobio – Pioneerof the Nile – $410,000
11. Bezos – Empire Maker – $400,000
12. Savile Road – Quality Road – $385,000
13. Jouster – Noble Mission – $360,000
14. Miacomet – Flatter – $350,000
15. Recidivist – Into Mischief – $350,000
16. Splashtown – Speightstown – $300,000
17. Honest Money – Honor Code – $265,000
18. Knopfler – Looking at Lucky -$240,000
19. Freedom Fighter – Violence – $120,000
20. Mr. Briggs – Super Saver – $85,000

I am not sure how to evaluate this portfolio. I guess you could call it the opposite of “value”. Only one of these horses had run as of August 5th, Freedom Fighter won a MSW for Baffert last weekend.

Let’s look at the most expensive purchases.

The million dollar horse is by a nice $65,000 sire Union Rags, but the mare was very average with just $100,000 in earning and the biggest win was an allowance at Indiana Grand. The Smart Strike dam has one to race from two foals. He earned $28,000. The 2nd dam was very average. The mare never ran an Equibase number over 88.

This had to be one very nice looking yearling. You could look at this purchase and conclude pedigree means nothing, and looks means everything. So much for Donegal’s algorithms.

Let’s try one more

Same thing!!!!!!

Hopkins is a $900,000 son of Quality Road. The dam is by Salt Lake and won two sprints at Golden Gate with nice speed figs of 105. The 3rd dam won a stake in France, that is the only interesting relative on the page. Pedigree means very little to Starlight.

Let’s be sure.

Tenor is a $800,000 purchase by Curlin. The dam (by Unbridled Song) won one race with a speed fig of 85. The 2nd dam won two races. No stakes races in sight.

Classier is a $775,000 Empire Maker. The dam took 12 tries to break her maiden and never ran better than 79.

I think I have enough evidence to make a conclusion. Starlight tries to buy expensive horses that have almost no pedigree. What could be a better test of how good a horse looks if someone else bids $750,000 for a horse with no pedigree, and you get to bid $775,000.

I am completely and totally confused.

They only bought one horse by a sire I am interested in. Starlight paid $360,000 for a Noble Mission. The dam could not win a maiden race at Penn National.

Let’s take the time to look at Donegal’s portfolio for 2020. To date none have started.

1. Abarta – Into Mischief by Distorted Humor $200,000 mare a turf router, Keeneland #1132, part-owner
2. Cashlings – Ghostzapper by Smart Strike – $250,000 mare was a turf/dirt miler. Keeneland #643, part owner
3. Code Duello – Honor Code by Rubiano – $95,000. mare never even ran 40 at Finger Lakes, but has 9 winners from 11 foals, Keeneland #296
4. Donegal Bay – Uncle Mo by Empire Maker, $90,000 2nd dam won the Kentucky Oaks, on paper great value, Keeneland #2658
5. Fahan – Honor Code by Horse Chestnut – $235,000 mare graded stakes placed at 1 1/2 miles on the turf, Keeneland #2132
6. Hendrick – Street Sense by Seeking the Gold – $75,000 mare was Godolpin horse that ran in GB, Keeneland #1846
7. Lode of Blarney – Exxagerator by Silver Deputy – $85,000 mare unraced, but 7 of 11 foals were winners, Keeneland #1272
8. Millean – Blame by Tale of the Cat, $65,000 -mare never ran better than 68, two foals neither a winner, Keeneland #1716
9. Potato Candy – Candy Ride by Dynaformer – $210,000, mare was a decent allowance turf sprinter Keeneland, #1793
10. Tommy Knocker – Mineshaft by Touch Gold – $65,000, mare unraced, but 6 of 7 foals were winners, Keeneland #2409
11. The Big Irishman – Hat Trick by Mizzen Mast – homebred, mare won claiming Crown Tiara at 1 1/16 on the turf
12. Turlough – English Channel by AP Indy – homebred, mare won only a maiden race in NY

This is an interesting group to look at. Many come from solid distance oriented mare, but a few are from unraced mares with solid offspring. The Uncle Mo and Into Mischief are not my kind of horse, but the price was right. In general I think Donegal practices what they preach, the 10 purchases are all at fairly low multiples. I really like the 2 Honor Codes, the Street Sense, Exaggerator, Mineshaft, Blame, and Candy Ride/Dynaformer

About half of these horse have 3-5 works, but many have not started working yet. This shows Donegal is being patient.

At first glance I would prefer this group to Ten Strike and Starlight, but is it good enough to invest in?

The Donegal approach is to to not “mark-up” horses, but instead they take a 20% equity interest in exchange for setting up the partnership.

I must admit I am a little concerned that only two 3 year olds are left on the roster for the previous partnership. Maybe Donegal is just aggressive in dropping poor horses, but I would have expected more to still be on hand. Maybe last year was just a bad year. I wonder if their is any chance Donegal would talk about prior partnership returns. I would guess the year with Arklow would have decent results.

Jerry Crawford is the founder and principal of Donegal Racing. For the last 12 years they have picked 12 horses and put them into a partnership that has a stated goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has campaigned Arklow, Keen Ice, and Dullahan, but have yet to find that elusive Derby winner.

I read with great interest an interview that Crawford did early this year.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2020-donegals-crawford-explains-origin-arklows-name-talks-pegasus-turf-chances

Crawford starts by saying the key to buying horses is “value”. This is a simple, but controversial statement.

He then makes the semi-amazing statement that he uses algorithms to select yearlings. It would be fascinating to understand the variables that are the inputs to these algorithms. I might expect a quant approach from a 35 year old guy that grew up on Billy Beane, but Mr. Crawford is over 70.

Even more importantly Crawford states he is looking for slow maturing horses that will “exceed expectations”. That is exactly the same strategy that I have been talking about since this blog began. He does state that this strategy is not ideal for finding Derby horses, but is does increase durability. He then tells the story of how long it took Arklow to develop.

There remains a small chance my ideas are not completely crazy.

As I type this Saratoga is running a $16,000 non-winners of two claiming race which includes horses that cost $300,00, $250,000, $105,000, and $90,000. Maybe I should take up bowling.

The basic strategy will be to find a yearling for $50,000-$100,000 that has stamina influences on both sides of the pedigree. The hope is that pinhookers will be less interested in this type of horse. I will start with the sires that I think are the most “undervalued”.

After one run through the catalog my favorites are:

1. #218 – Blame by Flower Alley (4/13) A++ nick
2. #185 – Midnight Storm by Ghostzapper (5/31) A++
3. #373 – Point of Entry by Rahy (4/20) A+
4. #374 – Gormley by Perfect Soul (3/7) A+
5. #510 – Keen Ice by Dynaformer (4/21) D
6. #208 – Anchor Down by Curlin (5/6) D
7. #147 – Connect by Awesome Again (3/12) A++ (similar to Keen Ice)
8. #202 – Tonalist by Thunder Gulch (5/3) D
9. #74 – Honor Code by Tiznow (5/14) D
10. #344 – Tourist by Fusaichi Pegasus (4/12) C
11. #398 – Klimt by Rock Hard Ten (4/22) C
12. #426 – Lemon Drop Kid by Stormy Atlantic (4/26) B

I am sure most folks will consider this list crazy. These are exactly the plodding horses that Graham/Cox/Crow warn people about in their Ten Strike presentation.

I remain convinced this is where the value is found. The questions remains if anyone can have the patience this strategy requires.

It will be interesting to see what multiples these horse sell for.

Let the madness begin. The catalog for the first yearling sale came out yesterday, August 3rd, for the sale that will be held September 9-10 in Lexington. Fasig-Tipton will sell 600+ yearlings in a sale that I guess replaces their usual August yearling sale in Saratoga.

That sale was usually 200 or so horses, but the median was around $300,000. FT also had a July yearling sale where the median was only $75,000. Maybe this sale will be a combination of those two sales.

There are about 20 new “freshman” sires. The big names are Gun Runner ($70,000, Candy Ride) and Arrogate ($50,000, Unbridled Song). Lesser names are Classic Empire ($20,000, Pioneerof the Nile), Mastery ($25,000, Candy Ride) and Practical Joke ($25,000, Into Mischief).

To me the interesting new names are Keen Ice ($20,000, Curlin), Midnight Storm ($10,000, Pioneerof the Nile), American Freedom ($10,000, Pulpit), Connect ($20,000, Curlin), Klimt ($10,000, Quality Road) and Gormley ($7,500, Malibu Moon).

There was a significant difference in the important 2 year old race Saturday. Equibase gave the winner Reinvestment Risk a 86, which translates to a Beyer of 70-75.

The Beyer figure was reported at 90. Time will tell which is right, but I hate having to use Eqibase numbers.

This difference should scare the crap out of handicappers that use Eqibase numbers.

It is difficult to tell how the Covid pandemic has effected the two year old schedule. it seems like there already should have been more races, but I have nothing to measure that feeling by.

It is difficult to believe the Breeders Cup is only 3 months away. The Hopeful and the Spinaway are only a month away. It might be the case that maidens are nominated to these races. The Champagne at Belmont is only 2 months away. How these horses will be ready to go two turns at Keeneland? It will be interesting to watch. It will be even more interesting to watch the turf horses prep for the juvenile turf races.

I have never paid any attention to the prep for the Breeder’s Cup until the night before when I picked up the Daily Racing Form. Now I hear “the giant clock ticking”. Who will be ready? What will it mean?

As I am typing I am watching a 1 1/16 mile 2 year old turf race at Saratoga with only 6 entries. What is everyone waiting for?

The winner was a $50,000 Laoban NY-bred that beat open company with absolutely no turf pedigree. They went 25 and 50 and came home in 30.5. What a terrible race, It will be fun to watch this horse going forward. There was a decent $300,000 Frankel in the race that chugged along for second. Kimmel had a decent looking Temple City that did nothing. Wesely Ward had an Uncle Mo that ran out.

Patience is an easy strategy to talk about. It is easy to write about.

Patience is much more difficult to actually practice.

About half of my horses I imaginarily purchased have been named and show a few works. Maybe a few are close to getting a start.

There are several that have not even been named. That might be a bad sign, or it just might be a strategy to disguise their works. It is difficult to report works when the horse is not named.

My strategy is to not select horse that ate likely to be great 2 year olds, so I have to be patient.

It is interesting to note that West Point, Eclipse, Starlight, and all the other partnership have not had a decent 2 year old so far. The one exception is Ironhorse that had a Distorted Humor colt that ran a great race at Saratoga. His name is Momos.

I want to give a special award to the folks at Wasabi Ventures for exceptional honesty. Wasabi is a Japanese horseradish. Wasabi Ventures Stables in medium size Maryland partnership operation that has several interesting 2 year olds being offered, including a Jump Start and a Flat Out.

One thing that differentiates WV from every other partnership is their honesty. They present a stats page that admits that only 17% of their previous horses have been profitable. No other partnership reports this number. Their honesty makes it much more likely that I will eventually invest with them.

https://www.wasabistables.com/hall-winners

Investing in horses is a difficult game.

One website equated investing in horses to buying season tickets to watch your favorite team play. I do not think the situation is that bad, but it is certainly not like buying an S&P Index Fund either.

To use a fancy word, investing in horses has asymmetrical returns. There is small chance of a big upside, and many chances to slowly get ground down.

If you need money to pay the rent, do not invest in horses.

If you do not have enough money to comfortably retire, do not invest in horses.

If you have a small pool of speculative capital that you can afford to lose, and have no effect on your lifestyle, keep reading.

If you want a small challenge try walking up a big hill near your home. If you want a big challenge try climbing Mt. Everest. The difference is you can die climbing Mt. Everest, I do not think anyone has ever died buying a yearling at the Keeneland sale.

Buying horses is great mental exercise.

Let’s try to be a little more organized and pull all the partnership information into one place. Here is my top 20 partnership ranked after just 2 months of watching:

??? means there is an current 2 year old being offered

$ – under $3,000, $$ – under $10,000, $$$ – under $25,000, $$$$ – over $25,000

Rank	Name		Approach
1	Dare to Dream	solid Tapizar and Tapiture, great communication	single horse $
2	Pewter	solid Super Saver, Malibu Moon ???	single horse $
3	Hibiscus	great Tonalist	single horse $
4	West Point	Vancouver ???, great recent results	single horse $$$
5	Eclipse	interesting Mshawish and Flintshire	single horse $$
6	Ironhorse	Exaggerator from Ocala ???	single horse $
7	Zilla	missed the Big Blue Kitten	single horse $$
8	Ten Strike	great presentation, yearlings only	portfolio $$$
9	Donegal	solid approach, yearlings only	portfolio $$$
10	Starlight	expensive horses, yearlings only	portfolio $$$$
11	Wasabi Ventures	very honest, Jump Start ??? Flat Out??	single horse $
12	Pocket Aces	Mshawish ???	single horse $
13	Bona Venture	Vancouver offer that disappeared?	single horse $$
14	Crown’s Way	5 horses of various ages, solid value	group $
15	Centennial	Candy Ride ???	combo $$$$
16	Bourbon Lane	waiting for yearlings	portfolio $$
17	Top Hat	bgt. some interesting horses in Ocala	$
18	Dream Maker	Noble Mission ???	single horse $$
19	Taste of Victory	interesting “private management” idea	not sure
20	myracehorse.com	not sure about micro shares	not sure

I really should have done this a long time ago. There are some interesting small groups that I have never heard of before. I will eventually investigate them all.

Here are the rest:

21	Team Valor	international only now
22	Little Red Feather	slow to communicate
23	Brilliant	slow to communicate
24	Sakatoga	no opportunities available
25	Bloodlines Racing	Noble Mission ???, investigate	single horse $
26	Twin Creeks	no offers
27	Country Life	Diving Rod ???
28	Bush Racing	claiming only
29	Blue Streak	just getting started, watch
30	Drawing Away	claiming only
31	Bradley	not really in partnerships
32	Blinkers On	no current offers, watch
33	Don’t Tell My Wife	small, in Texas
34	Uptowncharletbrown	several offered ???, investigate	single horse $
35	Beach Haven	one horse, watch
36	American Classic	Red Vines ??? Penn bred	single horse $$
37	DreamTeam Racing	Effenix ??? NY bred	single horse $
38	Funky Munky	will do a yearling purchase
39	Goodwood Racing	Jane Cibelli operation	group
40	Horseplayers Racing	many 2nd 3rd tier sires, investigate	$ – under $500
42	Churchill Downs	bought interesting horse, investigate	$500/club
43	Kenwood Racing	nice Candy Ride at Timonium, watch
44	Let’s Go Stable	confusing website, premium yearlings?
45	Magdalena	Ken McPeek, 4 nice horses???	single horse $$$
46	Live Your Dream	guy selling a book, investigate
47	Renpher	website confusing, investigate	single horse $
48	Shooting Star	pinhooking? , investigate
49

	Castle Village	not clear still active
	Its All about the Girls	women only
	Lady Shelia	women only
	Little Dreams	website gone
	Mosaic	not active
	Ownthetail	not active
	Phantom Racing	not active
	River Card	not active
	RJG	not active
	Soveriegn	website not working
	Summit Racing	sent an e-mail
	Team Stallion	website gone
	Team Power Play	not active
	Turf Stable	sent e-mail
	Windhorse	not active
	Winners Circle	claiming
	Woodford	website not working
	Wynwood	not active
	Z Thoroughbred	not active

That is everyone listed on the OwnerView syndicate page. I tried to investigate each for about 5 minutes for current offers, but several seem to be no longer in business.

nw = not working

Real Name	Sire	Dam Sire	$$$	Nic	Real Own	Status
Mr Cline	Maclean’s Music	Pulpit	47	B+	Mancari	nw
Avisse	Point of Entry	Mt. Livermore	65			4f
Shea D Summer	Summer Front	Empire Maker	35			nw
Jeebar	Frosted	Maria’s Mon	65		Al Rashid
Nuturing	Violence	Pioneering	125		Eclipse	4f
Midnight Choir	Maclean’s Music	Arch	110		Evans	3f
Cane Creek Road	Bayern	Jeblar	100			4f
Quick Gold	Ironicus	Hennessy	47			4f
Starship Skywalker	Carpe Diem	Arch	40		Starship	nw
Bode’s Tipsy	Bodemeister	Kitten’s Joy	20		dePaula	5f
Blame It On Brutus	Blame		100			nw
whos cozy	Twirling Candy	Cozenne	175		Cash is King
Rev Rita	Orb		50		Joe Caso	3f
Dennard	Bodemeister	Orientate	20		Besecker	nw
Color of Dawn	Exaggerator					winner
Jokers Run	Noble Mission					2nd
Dream Shake	Twirling Candy	Street Cry	75		Exline	3f
Just About Enough	Twirling Candy	With Approval	85			nw
Lambeau Lady	Twirling Candy	Johanesburg	100		Crow	3f
cozy gain	Summer Front	Cozzene	8		Larkin
check the spelling	Summer Front		15		Expoline
cozze up lady	Exaggerator	Cozzene	12		Ironhorse
branding	Air Force Blue		50		TB Blood
Sidetown	Twirling Candy		65		Langford	nw
Della Frost	Frosted	Kitten’s Joy	47		Scherer
trophy wife	Orb		35		O’Dwyer
the rahy angel	Air Force Blue		25		Churchhill
woollahra	Vancouver		21		James
oxbow lake	Lemon Drop Kid		62		Mack
mountain buddies	Summer Front		30		Expoline
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxx
whatmakessammyrun	We Miss Artie		30		Sterling	4f
Risky Reward	Mshawish	Street Cry	30		Thorostock	4f
Tap Dance Fever	Tapiture	Green Dancer	17		Vitello	2f
Brooklyn Strong	Wicked Strong	Medaglia d or	6		Schwartz	3f
Rittenhouse	Street Sense	War Chant	20		Bradley	4f
(real tizzy	Liam’s Map	Tiznow	20		Zacney	nw
Chaos Reigns	Malibu Moon	Fu Peg	200		Ellis	4f
Get Her Number	Dialed In	Bernstein	47		P Miller	4f
jor jah	Tourist	Street Sense	6		Pender
Mike’s Lady	Tourist	Pulpit	15		Mancari	nw
Gabby Squared	Jack Milton		45		Young	2f
Hangout	Upstart		57		siegal	2f
Starship Chica	Fed Biz		16		Starship	nw
Inside Scheme	Dialed In		40		Dialed	nw
rajpur	Soldat		18		Gaffeo
diamond	Sky Mesa		22		Vina Del Mar
Lila at the Beach	Carpe Diem		25		Hall
Celestial Cheetah	Social Inclusion		28		O’dwyer	3f
Silver Commission	Tourist		12		Pulgar	nw

I just learned how to make a WordPress table.

Reasonable people can disagree about the first two columns. My assessment of popularity is partially judged by how well these different sires sold at the three sales I observed.

I am not in favor of buying horses from the first column, and I am 50/50 on those in the second.

Poplar	Semi-Popular	My Favorites
Medaglia d Oro	Honor Code	Twirling Candy
Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Summer Front
Tapit	Cairo Prince	Tonalist
Uncle Mo	Blame	Point of Entry
Into Mischief	Frosted	Big Blue Kitten
Speightstown	Upstart	Maclean’s Music
Constitution	Nyquist	Carpe Diem
Candy Ride	Liam’s Map	Air Force Blue
Union Rags	Empire Maker	Tourist
Curlin	Malibu Moon	Super Saver
Munnings	Palice Malice	Bayern
American Pharoah	Empire Maker	Orb
Kitten’s Joy	Flatter	Flintshire
Not This Time	Violence	Temple City
Runhappy	Vancouver	Exaggerator

This is a rough outline of how I will shop for yearlings, mostly from the right, but some from the center.

I was watching the Saratoga broadcast of the first two year old race of the meet, Maggie Wolfendale mentioned that at the Ocala sales the consigners can choose which horses to run early in the morning. She said they choose to run their best horses early, because they think the track is better.

That could be important. Does the track seem faster because they send out the best horses first? It is a synthetic surface, so how much can it change. The placement might mean more than the time.

In that first race, Ironhorse Racing had a $180,000 Distorted Humor that defeated a $500,000 Into Mischief from Racehorse.com. That is a nice win for the Ironhorse guys. He might be on his way to the Hopeful.

Maggie was not that impressed with Momo’s (the race winner) appearance. She said he kind of small.

That ties into a comment from after the second day at Ocala by Dennis O’Neil. O’Neil is Doug brother, and is the bloodstock agent for Paul Reddam. O’Neil said all the horses with fast times “looked like quarter horses”. I know I had exactly the same impression when I went to a Select 2-yr old sale at Palm Meadows about 10 years ago.

O’Neil (really Reddam) then paid $175,000 for a Half Ours, because he said he was “longer” and had a nicer stride. Half Ours is a little known son of Unbridled Song standing in Louisiana. The physical picture can be much more important than the pedigree. This will be an interesting horse to watch.

Terry Finley (founder of West Point) had a nice interview before the third race. He actually said “its all about the owners and the bettors, the rest of us are just at the trough”. That might just an off the cuff remark, but if you stop and think about it a little it is really quite profound.

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Just a random thought, but you really to watch these stakes races with small fields and a big favorite. Often being stakes placed in a graded race might not be as good as a solid allowance race.

xxxxxxxxxx

Decorated Invader was a solid winner of the Hall of Fame for West Point. The horse was a $200,000 yearling purchase. Declaration of War has already been shipped off to Japan. What does that mean? Were his horses really not that commercial? I guess Ashford Stud has Air Force Blue, and Mendelssohn next year, to replace Declaration of War.

Of course you can buy next years winner at the West Point website. 5% of the Vancouver colt is still available for about $22,000. That is a healthy price for an untested stallion, but you cannot argue with West Point’s success.

The dam of Decorated Invader was a Stronarch horse that won one race, and never had an Equibase speed figure over 87, but she was never in a claimer. Someone wanted to sell her babies. The dam was by Arch, and did not win until June of her 3 year old season, The second dam won the G1 Santa Anita Oaks.

In many ways this could be a model yearling to buy:

1. A second tier stallion with a non-precocious pedigree
2. A stamina dam that did not have an impressive career, but was never a claimer
3. There is plenty of pedigree and performance in the extended family
4. An above average price that should indicate a good looking physical individual.

In fact that has just become my yearling model for the September sales..

My goal is to eventually look at all the partnerships. OwnerView has a list of 66 of them:

https://www.ownerview.com/syndicate

This will take some time, but let’s review a few

1. Starlight is probably the most expensive. They have an imposing list of 2-yr olds mainly with Baffert and Pletcher. I guess I will ask how much it costs to play, but it is not cheap. https://starlightracing.com/starlight-current-roster/
2. Myracehorse.com is maybe the least expensive way to get involved. They bought a few more nice horses at Ocala July. They are offering “micro-shares”, for as little as .001% of a horse for around $200. They have the favorite in the first 2-yr old race at Saratoga today. Their last internet ad was much better and did “over-promote”.
3. Crown’s Way Racing is another option for under $1,000. They have a group of five horses, 2 unraced 2-yr olds, 2 recent $15,000 claims, and a very solid allowance horse. Tony Rallo is an experienced owner, and they use trainer Carlos Silva. It is an interesting collection of horses that hope to run at Arlington this summer. I will keeping an eye on their progress.
4. Centennial Farms has a long history. They seem to be only high end yearling buyers. They are offering 5% of a $500,000 yearling purchase for $40,000. He is colt with no works named Necco. They also have another 4 horse yearling partnership that appears to be closed. I will be watching.
5. Pocket Aces Racing is a medium size operation based at Belterra/Churchill. They have an impressive 20% win percentage. Right now they are offering shares in a 2-yr old Mshawish colt with some interesting pedigree. I need to learn more.
6. Twin Creeks is listed under partnerships, but their website does not provide any information. Pass
7. Taste of Victory Stables is an interesting group. They offer small partnerships that combine two year olds and an existing horse. More interestingly they specifically offer “private management” services that sound like they might help you set up your own partnership. This could be an interesting option.
8. Top Hat Thoroughbreds is a medium size group that bought two horses at Ocala for $4,000 and $7,000. That is what I call value shopping. I will send them an e-mail.
9. Bush Racing Stable is mainly claimer in Penn and Maryland
10. Blue Streak is only two years old, and does not have a current offer
11. Country Life is offering a son of Diving Rod, I guess a Maryland sire. pass
12. Don’t Tell My Wife Stables is right down the road in Ft. Worth, but has no offers
13. Beach Haven is Monmouth guys with only one horse
14. Bloodlines racing has a Noble Mission offering that is mildly interesting, small operation

In order to not miss any more Big Blue Kittens I need to go through each stud farm one by one. In a previous post I had ranked them by their percentage of top stallions. I will use that order here:

1. Winstar (18) – Stars-( Distorted Humor, Constitution, Speightstown, Tiznow, More Than Ready) My interests – (Carpe Diem, Tourist, Exaggerator) – Next year – (Audible, Always Dreaming) Should Know More – (Take Charge Indy)
2. Lane’s End (20) – Stars (Quality Road, Union Rags, Candy Ride, Liam’s Map, Lemon Drop Kid) My interest (Twirling Candy, Tonalist, Noble Mission, Honor Code), Next year – (West Coast, Honor AP), Should Know More – (Mr. Speaker)
3. Darly America (10) – Stars – (Medaglia d Oro, Bernardini, Street Sense) My Interests – (Frosted, Midshipman) Should Know More – (Nyquist)
4. Hill ‘N’ Dale (13) – Stars – (Curlin, Kittens Joy, Violence, Kantharos) My interest (Maclean’s Music, Flintshire, Bayern), Next Year (Good Magic), Should Know More – (Midnight Lute)
5. Spendthrift (24) – Stars – (Into Mischief, Malibu Moon, Goldencents) My interests (Temple City, Wicked Strong, Brody’s Cause) Next year (Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso), Should Know More (Cross Traffic)
6. Ashford/Coolmore (14) – Stars – (American Pharoah, Uncle Mo, Munnings), My interests (Air Force Blue) Next Year (Justify, Classic Empire, Mendelssohn) Should Know More (Looking at Lucky)
7. Claiborne (12) – Stars – (War Front, Runhappy, Blame, Flatter) My interests (Ironicus, Orb, Lea) Next Year (Catholic Boy), Should Know More (Algorithms)
8. Gainsway (8) – Stars (Tapit, Afleet Alex) My interest (Anchor Down, Tapizar)
9. Three Chimneys (8) – Stars (Palice Malice) my interest (Sky Meas) Next Year (Gun Runner) Should Know More (Will Take Charge)
10. Adena Springs (5) – Star (Ghostzapper) My Interest (Point of Entry)
11. Airdrie (8) – Stars (Cairo Prince, Upstart) My Interest (Summer Front) Next Year (McCraken)
12. Calumet (12) – Star (English Channel), my interest (Big Blue Kitten), should know more (Oxbow)
13. Pin Oak (2) – Star (Broken Vow), should know more (Alternation)
14. Darby Dan (9) – Star (Dialed In, Tapiture) my interest (Sky Kingdom) Next Year (Klimt)
15. Crestwood (5) – my interest (Texas Red, Jack Milton)
16. Juddmonte (1) – my interest (Mizzen Mast) more in Europe

169 stallions in Kentucky, still need to add Florida, NY, California, Maryland, etc

My lack of organizational skills cost me a chance to invest is a partnership I should have joined.

I thought I was on all the mailing lists, but I somehow missed Zilla Racing. The were offering a great looking Big Blue Kitten filly they had just bought at Ocala for $67,000. She is the ultimate slow developing horse, yet she worked 10.1, and was a bargain at only 6.7x.

The offer sold out in less than a day so I would have had to move fast. It was interesting that this horse did not originally show on the OBS site as a Zilla purchase (but it does now).

She has already been named Ninja Kitten. For the next year she will be “the big fish that got away.”

I was also not prepared on Big Blue Kitten. He is a freshman sire that I should have been watching more carefully. He is the ultimate slow developer. He only got good when he was 5, but got even better when he was 7. He stands at Calumet, which has a great history but has been a little “off the radar” recently.

One of the main goals of this blog is to learn about the different partnership groups.

I have been very impressed by what I have learned about Ironhorse Racing Stable. Everyone should go to their website and learn about their success with Buccherro. From a $43,000 OBS purchase of an Indiana bred, they won two G2’s at Keeneland, went to two Breeder’s Cup races, and also raced at Ascot. Buccehero has also become a successful sire.

https://www.ihracing.com/

https://www.buccherostallion.com/pedigree

The managing partner is Harlan Malter, who has a day job in the investment business. I consider that a positive. The basic approach is to offer horses without a markup, and only earn fees when the horse wins money.

On their website they were offering few remaining 5% shares of a very nice looking Tapiture they bought for $80,000 at a previous sale. The pedigree is maybe a little too sprint oriented for my weird taste, but others might see it as a very balanced horse.

Ironhorse then sent me a e-mail saying they had a small budget to buy a horse at the Ocala sale. I thought that was interesting. West Point, Eclipse, and all the other partnership folks took a pass on this sale.

The horse Ironhorse bought was extremely interesting. They passed on over 1000 horses and then bought a son of Exaggerator, out of a great Cozzene mare for only $12,000. This is exactly the type of pedigree I appreciate. The problem is the horse worked a very green 11.0. He is a April 22 foal. I look forward to hearing the “story” of this horse. I give Ironhorse an A++ for creativity.

I am not sure what I just watched. At the Ocala sale, only 650 of the 1100 listed horses actually went through the ring. The OBS spokesperson did not provide a clear answer. The buyback rate was a normal 20%, but why were so many horses withdrawn?

If the pinhookers are going to attempt to race these horse themselves, that is certainly their right. If the withdrawn horses are all going to be sold in a “shadowy” secondary private market, that presents more of a problem. If there is a large secondary market, who has access? If I was sitting there ready to spend real money after doing a lot of expensive research, and then “poof” the horse disappears, I would not be a happy camper.

I want to keep the tone of this blog positive, because I still have a lot to learn.

Only 5 of 15 listed Frosted’s went through the ring, 10 were withdrawn.

Only 3 of the 14 listed Outwork’s went through the ring.

Neither of the 2 Blame’s went to the ring. I know that hip #133 worked 10.1 and did not show up on the list of outs on Tuesday morning, yet he did not come to the ring. Now on the OBS website he shows up as withdrawn, but his workout time has been removed. This is borderline deceptive.

My guess is that the consigner/owner still owes a fee to OBS Sales if the horse is RNAed, but maybe does not have to pay for a late withdrawal. It has become my new mission to determine what happens to these withdrawn horses.

Here are some links to my horses:

Quick Tempo – Tapizar colt

QUICK TEMPO – two year-old colt partnership

Blonde on Tap – Tapiture filly

BLONDE ON TAP – two year-old filly partnership

Song Saver (scroll down)

https://www.pewterstable.com/partnership-offerings.shtml

Tonalist colt

http://www.hibiscusstables.com/offering.asp?h=138

Someday I would like to own a successful race horse. Here is what I have accomplished in the last 2 months in my first steps toward that goal:

1. I have purchased 2-3% interests in 4 real horses from three different partnership operations. My total investment is about $8,000. Two are working nicely, one is sick, and the other is sore.
2. I have contacted most of the big partnerships operations, and I am reviewing each of their new offerings.
3. I have watched the three largest 2-year old in training sales and built a list of about 50 horses as “imaginary” purchases.
4. I also went back to last years yearling sales and developed two lists of horses to “compete” with the yearling portfolio of Ten Strike Racing. I also learned a lot from a Ten Strike presentation about their yearling purchases.
5. I have developed a “value-oriented” strategy to select 2-year olds that is “outside the mainstream”, and maybe downright crazy. the strategy focuses on horses that might be a little slower to develop.
6. I have estimated some very rough “valuation metrics”
7. I have begun to understand the “data analytics” that are available at these sales.
8. I have begun to understand the concept of “nicks”.
9. I am preparing for the yearling sales season which will start in early September.
10. I have started to read the Thoroughbred Daily New each day (especially the ads).
11. I have a long list of horses in my Equibase Virtual Stable and get daily updates on works and races
12. I have written about 120 blog posts to document my journey down this long and winding road.

It is difficult to tell if the final Ocala sale has great value, or is mainly a collection of leftovers. There have been a lot of withdrawals and buy backs. I really want to learn what happens to the horses that do not get sold. I think it is a very important part of the two year old in training story. If the pinhookers are only selling the problem horses and keeping the better ones, I need to know that right now. It is interesting that in a European sale over 90% of the horses sold, here it seems closer to 50%.

I want to keep track of 3 different groups:

1. The horse I would have bought
2. The horse that sold for seemingly above average prices
3. The horse that did not sell

The horses I would have bought:

1. #560 Summer Front – Cozy Gain – 21.2, $8,000, Larkin Brothers
2. #1058 Exaggerator – Cozze Up Lady, 11,0 $12,000, Ironhorse Racing Stable
3. #515 Summer Front – Check the Spelling, 10.2 $15,000, Expoline
4. #1049 Air Force Blue – Branding – 21.2, $50,000, TB Bloodstock
5. #281 Orb – Trophy Wife – 10.1, $35,000, Jeremiah O’Dwyer
6. #572 Social Inclusion – Dandy Dulce – 33.1 $28,000 Jeremiah O’Dwyer (late PS)
7. #602 Twirling Candy – Diva’s Seastar, 10.1, $65,000, Michael Langford (a late PS)
8. #597 Frosted – Celestial Kitten, 10.2 $47,000, Merril Scherer
9. #1098 Summer Front – Mountain Buddies, 21.2, $30,000, Expoline
10. #990 Lemon Drop Kid – Oxbow Lake, 10.3, $62,000, Earle Mack
11. #340 Vancouver – Woollahra – 10.2, $21,000, Greg James
12. #162 Tourist – (Silver Commission), 10.1, $12,000 Edward Pulgar
13. #594 Sky Mesa – Diamondinthestream, 10.2, $22,000, Vina del Mar Thoro.
14. #51 Jack Milton – Purely Promising, 21.1 $45,000, Steve Young
15. #542 Dialed In – Collusion, 21.2, $40,000, Starship Stables
16. #106 Carpe Diem – Sabi Sands, 10.2, $25,000, Jason Hall (late PS)
17. #252 Air Force Blue – The Rahy Angel, 10.2, $25,000, Churchill Downs Racing Club
18. #197 Upstart – Stay Composed, 21.3, $57,000, Siegel Sez Stables
19. #63 Soldat – Rajpur Road, 10.1, $18,000, Joe Graffeo
20. #520 Fed Biz – Chic Gloria – 10.1, $16,000, Starship Stables

The horses that did not sell:

1. #133 Blame – Seeking Sheba
2. #146 Tapizar
3. #558 Paynter – Courageous Julie
4. #278 Bernardini
5. #598 Bodemeister
6. #264 Curlin
7. #621 Flat Out
8. #746 Frosted (and9 more)

Horses to watch:

1. #189 Super Saver – Strikinglybeautiful- $77,000, Marc Tacher (tons of pedigree)
2. #473 Palice Malice – Breech Inlet – $175,000, Al Ulwelling
3. #525 Macleans Music – Chokonni – 10.0 , $65,000, Mens Grill Racing
4. #414 Flat Out – Arbeka- 10.1, $52,000
5. #120 Air Force Blues – Savviest, 10.1, $100,000, Randy Bradshaw
6. #201 Bayern – Storming Gypsy – 10.0, $50,000. Expoline
7. #342 Cairo Prince
8. #383 Half Ours – All About Ju Ju- 20.1, $175,000, Dennis O’Neil – this is our Modus Operendi , bad pedigree, but does not look like sprinter
9. #435 Tapiture – – 10.2, $45,000, Dennis O’Neil
10. #429 Vancouver – -$90,000
11. #1070 Bayern – Gossip Mil , 22.0, $8,000, Glorious Uncertainty Stable

I know this seems like a lot of horses to keep track of. I really want to understand this sale. Bargains or leftovers???

My approach to the second Ocala sale will be a little different. My goal is to build a portfolio of $20,000 -$60,000 horses and track their progress. I will not be able to watch much of the sale live, so I will not be considering different bidding strategies. I look at the results each evening and pick out what I thought were good buys.

It will be interesting to see how the different partnership operations approach this sale. One interesting group is Ironhorse which sent out an e-mail announcing a specific budget to buy a horse. As I write this morning West Point still is showing availability in their Vancouver colt. Pewter bought a 3 year old in the recently completed Horse of Racing Age sale in Lexington. I will pass on the the former Assmusen trainee.

My focus will be on the 10.2 works, but their some interesting pedigrees in some of the slower works.

If I were going to the sale with $100,000 would like #602 a Twirling Candy which might be out of my price range with a 10.1 work, or a Blame #133 also with a 10.1, or maybe #560 if necessary (this is really my favorite in the whole sale)

With $50,000 I would like#560 or #505 a Summer Front’s with a long distance pedigree, or maybe an Air Force Blue #1049.

For under $25,000 I would like one of the Flat Out’s

I will concentrate more on the $20,000 to $50,000 horse at this sale. Most of the good horse should have sold at the first 3 sales. I want to watch how many of what is left even win a decent maiden claiming race. The workout times look about like the previous sale. I will focus on the 10.2’s. This could be a top 25% work, or it could be a median work. Here I will rank them according to what I think they will sell for.

Will the top 10 of these sell for $100,000 given the slower work, will all the rest sell for below $50,000

1. #789 Medaglia d Oro – Dixie Union, 2/12, winner and big producer, D nick
2. #643 Curlin – Pulpit, winner and producer, 4/17
3. #92 Pioneerof the Nile – Friends Lake, G3 winner and producer, 5/19, premium sire
4. #44 Ghostzapper – Elusive Quality, premium sire, tons of pedigree 3/30
5. #507 Frosted – Kittens joy, G2 winner, producer, 4/14, A nick
6. #746 Frosted – Lion Heart, G1 placed, 3/16, ???
7. #861 Nyquist – El Corredor, 2/20, big winner
8. #323 Tonalist – Gone West – G2 placed, big producer, 4/22, C+ nick
9. #537 Liams Map – Mineshaft – winner and producer, 3/31, A+
10. #560 Summer Front – Cozenne, 5/1 , ******my favorite, 21.2
11. #608 Violence – Unbridled Song, producer, big family 4/21, A++
12. #235 Dialed In – Pleasantly Perfect, producer, great 2nd dam, 5/1
13. #542 Dialed In – Broad Brush, 4/21, big 2nd dam
14. #252 Air Force Blue – Rahy, turf pedigree, 4/17, top family
15. #81 Cairo Prince – Posse, winner and producer 3/14 solid horse
16. #106 Carpe Diem – Lemon Drop Kid, 2/3, weak mare
17. #18 Carpe Diem – More Than Ready winner and producer, 5/15, very solid
18. #189 Super Saver – Smart Strike, winner and producer
19. #325 Upstart – Yankee Victor, big producer, 4/23, A+ nick
20. #340 Vancouver – Proud Citizen, 3/8, winner and producer, solid, A++ nick
21. #562 Vancouver – Anabaa, 3/14, winner and producer,
22. #1043 Air Force Blue – StreetSense, 4/19, winner producer, A++
23. #197 Upstart – Bernstein – 5/1, 21.3, winner producer
24. #905 Bodemeister -Medaglia d Oro, 3/27, winner, good family, D
25. #879 Congrats – Seeking the Gold, 2/23, winner producer, solid
26. #530 Tourist – Full Mandate, winner and producer, 4/1, B
27. #515 Summer Front – Arch, 2/28, weak mare, great family, risky???
28. #594 Sky Mesa – Smart Strike, producer, big 2nd dam 4/27
29. #621 Flat Out – Royal Applause, 4/4, winner and producer, decent family
30. #799 Noble Mission – Pleasantly Perfect, 21.3, 3/30, winner
31. #823 Violence – Curlin, 5/14, bad mare, great pedigree, B
32. #1081 Exaggerator – Fu Peg, 5/9, winner, just a fu peg
33. #1008 Hit It a Bomb – Pleasantly Perfect, winner producer

It has been a week since the last post, so let’s update each area of interest.

1. My four real horses are in various stages of development. The two Dare to Dream horses went straight to the track and have 3 published works each. The Pewter Stable horse has been galloping with Pewter’s other 2-yr olds, and has even been in the gate, but has no published works. The Hibiscus colt is still breezing, and still does not have a name. Right now Dare to Dream is doing the best job of keeping me informed.
2. West Point still has units available in their Vancouver and Elusive Quality partnerships. I will continue to pass, but monitor the progress. I guess that Eclipse’s lower entry prices has allowed them to sell out, since I have no e-mails from them on their Mshawish offer. The Malibu Moon deal at Pewter is still a possibility, and has been posted on their website. Not much information from the other partnerships, it looks like Timonium was a pass for many of them.
3. About 2/3 of my imaginary horses from Ocala have names, and I am tracking them using Equibase’s free Virtual Stable feature. Some are starting to show works, but many are not. It looks like at least 50% are giving the horses a break after the training show.
4. Some of my imaginary yearling purchases are starting to show works, but several do not even have a name yet. That could be a bad sign.
5. The second Ocala sale will occur next week, the breeze show is already underway. I find I get very little from watching the works, so I have just been monitoring the results. I think I want to take more of a bargain oriented approach to this sale.
6. I was dead wrong on my Met Mile picks, but did not bother to post them. I am certain that three years from now I will be shunning the new Vekoma offspring, but will be looking hard at the Tacitus babies. Del Mar racing starts tonight, and Saratoga is only a week away.

Let’s torture the numbers one more time. What was the range of multiples for horses with a fast work at the Timonium sale? All the horse that worked 10.1 and sold:

1. 18 horses sold for more than 10x their 2020 stud fee
2. 5 sold for 8x to 9.9x
3. 5 sold for 6x to 7.9x
4. 8 sold for 4x to 5.9x
5. 6 sold for 2x to 3.9x
6. 5 sold for 1x to 1.9x
7. 3 sold for less than 1x (including Pewter Malibu Moon)

You could describe this distribution as have a median of about 8x, but while statistically accurate you can do better.

Really about 35% of the horses sold for a price that had little to do with their stud fee. These were the great looking horses that inspired bidding wars where “value” was not the primary consideration.

If you exclude these horses, it is more descriptive to say that for the fast works:

The median is about 5x, but again the distribution has very big tails (kurtosis, for those who took too many statistics course, as I did)

Now let’s look at the distribution for the 10.2’s

1. 12 greater than 10x
2. 4 sold for 8x to 9.9x
3. 5 sold for 6x to 7.9x
4. 11 sold for 4x to 5.9x
5. 35 sold for 2x to 3.9x
6. 6 sold for 1x to 1.9x
7. 5 sold for less than 1x

You could say the median was 4x

or better is 15% sold for premium prices, and the median for the vast majority was 3x

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very roughly:

5x – 6x. for a fast work, with significant outliers

3 – 3.5x for an above average to average work, with some outliers

1.5x – 2x. for below average to average work

Let’s spend a little time looking at the Pewter Stable offer. Only 65 of about 303 horses sold, worked 10.1 or faster (10 went 10.0). At first glance it seems that buying a Malibu Moon at less that 1x the stud fee could only be accomplished only at gunpoint. But before jumping to that conclusion, let’s look at the distribution of all the horse that worked 10.1 at Timonium.

1. 7 were not sold
2. 18 sold for $65,000 or less
3. 11 sold $66,000 to $119,000
4. 10 sold for $120,000 to $249,000
5. 9 sold for $250,000 or more

That is not a “normal” distribution, it is in fact quite flat, with a fatter tail at the bottom.

You can torture these number many different ways. Of course the Pewter deal is much better when you look at multiples of stud fees. But is that really the best way to look at things? There is no easy answer.

The list of folks that paid less than $65,000 or less for a 10.1 work is quite distinguished, it includes:

1. West Point
2. Eclipse (twice)
3. Bradley Thoroughbreds
4. Repole Stables
5. Bob Hess
6. Mike Maker
7. several well known bloodstock agents

The horse that Pewter bought is list as consigned by King’s Equine as agent for Spendthrift Farm (which is where Malibu Moon stands). Is this mare owned by Spendthrift Farms? If it is the cost to them is not really $60,000, it is in fact $0. The horse was not sold as a yearling. Maybe someone did not pay there stud fee and Spendthrift “repoed” the mare.

There are still many parts of this game I do not understand.

The cross of sons of AP Indy with mares sired by the sons of Danehill is reported by TrueNicks as a D.

The horse is unusually bred. The dam sire is Flying Spur, who won $2,000,000 racing in Australia, and is a son of Danehill. What is more unusual is that the mare (Prairy Kat) is the product of second cousins having children. The same mare (Grand Luxe) is the second dam of Flying Spur, and is also the second dam of Categorical ( the mom of Prairy Kat). It is easier to go to PedigreeQuery.com and type in Prairy Kat.

This would be illegal in 25 states for humans, but legal in the rest. The science says this is not a problem in humans, but some traditions die hard. I have no idea what the implication is in horses.

Mix all that together and you get a pretty big mess, but I think the Pewter offer still deserves consideration.

All good golfers know that when you playing a practice round, it is a good idea to take mulligans. There is little sense in playing out of the deep rough when you are just practicing. In that spirt, i am going to add 3 more horses to my imaginary stable.

I learned this morning that I need to study each sire a little more carefully, and not reley on quick judgements. I have been handicapping fro 23 years, but I almost always ignore Graded Stakes races with small fields. I am searching through the field of 12 $6,000 non-winners of 2 claiming races at Calder while most others are a watching a 5 horse Grade 1 at Churchill. Until I started to try to understand the sales, i could care less about who won XYZ Stakes race. That means I am woefully ignorant of the racing history of many very good horses.

I always assumed that Twirling Candy was just a cheap ripoff of his dad Candy Ride. Candy Ride was a great miler, but I did not consider his offspring as stamina horses. I figured Twirling Candy was the same story, but I was clearly wrong. Twirling Candy only won a maiden race at 2, but then improved steadily and won the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles when he was 4.

Twirling Candy has just become my favorite stamina sire. I should have known that before the Ocala and Timonium sales, but I did not. I am going to take my time machine back a few weeks and add 3 Twirling Candy’s to my stable.

1. #1008 from Ocala – Twirling Candy – Even Song by Street Cry – $75,000 – bought by the smart guys at Exline Racing
2. #105 from Timonium – Twirling Candy – Margarita Friday by Johannesburg – $100,000 – bought by Liz Crow the agent for Ten Strike among others
3. #64 from Timonium – Twirling Candy – Kiamika by With Approval – $85,000 – bought by Mark Glatt as agent for ????, this is my favorite

There were more expensive to choose from, but these are the type of horse i might have bought.

Twirling Candy moves right to the top of my favorite sires list. I really like the female side with Arlington Million winner Chester House, and the dam of Empire Maker the mare Toussaud. I am still learning some of these sires.

The first offer to consider is the one from West Point. Hip #160 is a Vancouver colt that worked 10.2. He was my 5th favorite horse when I went through the Timonium catalog the first time, and before his work. I like the “concept” or this horse, but would I actually invest in it. WP paid a full price of 7x the stud fee. That is in my judgement a full price for a 10.2 work. This horse raises may issues that are interesting to consider.

1. How do you evaluate a Australian sire? We are all trying to find a cheaper Medaglia de Oro, but is this the guy? He only ran 4 sprint races in his brief career. His pedigree suggest he could have gone longer, but is he just a sprinter? WP says this is a “two-turn” horse by his looks. Has Vancouver been successful with his Australian offspring? It is hard for me to judge, I do not know enough about Australian racing. I have a feeling that Vancouver could be a success, but can I really invest on that basis. In reality I need to know each new sire cold, not just have general feeling about them.
2. I would like to have a dam that was a better race horse. I love the Pulpit/AP Indy pedigree, but Past Twilight ran one good race at 7f breaking her maiden at Gulfstream, but never ran a good race again and retired after 14 tries. I would prefer a decent allowance horse, but she was not that.
3. The dam has produced one well above average horse in 5 tries. Again I would call that OK, but not great.
4. The second dam is not much to talk about, but the family under the 3rd dam is well above average. Is this important at all, or it just fluff?. Someday I hope to know that answer to that question.

Mixing this all together I guess I could forgive the mare’s faults if I really believed Vancouver is the next great thing. I know you pay a high price for certainty, which makes a Vancouver colt a very interesting idea.

This is not a beginners horse. This is a tough call even for an experienced investor. The horse looks beautiful, but most Medaglia de Oro’s do, that is why they cost so much. This colt could well haunt me for the rest of my career. Over 30 years ago I walked into a video store that was the first to use a computerized checkout system. The funny thing is that one store was part of a small public company that had been in the oil service business, but was switching it business to video stores. You guessed it, that one store became the Blockbuster chain and the stock went up 400x what it was the first night I walked in that store.

I have missed the big one before, and could very well miss it again.

The 2nd WP horse is an Elusive Quality that is a little too much a run early sprinter for me, but they got a great price because nobody is that excited about the sire. He could well haunt me at Saratoga this summer.

The 3rd horse a Square Eddie which is well out of my area of expertise, but I will have to learn more about Cal-bred sires.

West Point deserves credit for making 3 interesting choices. None of these are easy stories, and that is good not bad. I will be better prepared next year.

West Point also deserves extra credit for a very clear and detailed presentation of each horse, including nick ratings, heart scores, and stride evaluations.

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The Eclipse offers present a whole different set of issues. The first horse is by Dominus a sire that I am not prepared to evaluate. A quick look shows he might be an interesting value, but I need to learn much more. I was not prepared for his one.

I was prepared for the 2nd horse, a filly by Mshawish. This was one of the first year sires I wanted to invest in. Another son of Medaglia de Oro, that could run on turf or dirt. The problem here is the mare is horrible. She ran 2 miserable races and was retired, and this is her first foal. The breeding is above average, and the second dam was a great runner. I have tried to avoid first foals, but I am not sure that is a sound idea.

I like uncertainty, but this is taking it too far. Why is Eclipse even messing around with these cheaper horses? It is interesting to note they found no value in the more expensive horses. This could be another horse that will haunts me. It is certainly in an easy price range, and I like the sire. The work was a quick 10.1. You cannot argue they paid too much.

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The Pewter Stable horse is fascinating. They bought a Malibu Moon filly with a great work and a good family for less 1x the stud fee. This purchase would make much more sense if it were $250,000 or even $150,000, but why $50,000. It is also interesting to note the horse still shows as not sold of the Fasig-Tipton websire

This horse is a perfect example of TGTBT. (To Good To Be True), or maybe it is just a great value. It will be interesting to see how fast this horse sells out. I will call and talk to the Pewter folks about her next week, but for now it is a riddle wrapped inside a puzzle.

The “shooting” started less than 24 hours after the Timonium sale ended. At 11:30 am I got an e-mail from Eclipse offering the 2 fillies they bought yesterday. Then only 4 minutes later came Pewter Stable with the offer of a nice Malibu Moon filly they bought privately at the sale. Then 4 minutes later West Point fired off the 3 horses they bought at Timonium.

Just 30 days ago I would have no intelligent way to evaluate these offers. I could just trust them, but too many years in the financial markets have taught me to not to trust anyone. Today I realize that I now know 2000% more than I knew 30 days ago, but probably only 40% of what I need to know to make an intelligent decision.

Anyone reading the first 100 or so posts to this blog might think these writings to be the ranting of a madman who has spent too much time in Covid lockdown. I would argue that all this work is exactly what was required to evaluate the offers I just received from 3 very reputable partnership operations. The West Point and Eclipse offers will be gone by Thursday. You do not get a week to evaluate these offers, at most you get two days.

I am not ready to “hit the bid” on any of these offers today, but by next year at this time I expect to be 100% prepared. Being 100% prepared to respond to these offers is now the clear goal. The yearling sales in a few months will be another learning experience, but by next year I will be ready to respond to these types of offers.

West Point added a $100,000 Square Eddie for their California clients. Eclipse made just two small purchases, a $40,000 Mshawish and a $57,000 Dominus. Zilla bought a Commissioner and a Laoban. I think the list of folks that passed completely is interesting.

Maybe I could have looked harder at some of the cheaper NY breds. I know I need to watch Maryland and Pennsylvania racing much closer. I know one reason I was less excited is because only about 10% of horses chose to work 2f, in Ocala it was closer to 30%. It was also difficult because so many horses worked 10.3 it was hard to differentiate them. That 10. 3 work could have been the median, but it also could have been bottom quartile.

Fasig-Tipton did a better job of reporting results promptly, but there were still a number of mysterious last minute outs. Where do these horses go now?

I sorry to be a sourpuss (is that a word?), but I will call the sale loser Michael Lund Petersen paying $1,100,000 for an Uncle Mo, but the Sackatoga guys paying $290,000 for a Tonalist that worked 22.1 was a close second.

The winner is Xtreme Racing who bought the Bayern out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare (with a nice 21.3 work) for only $80,000. I do not know who these guys are, but I will watching with great interest. This is exactly my kind of horse, and was clearly “the one that got away” . He was eventually named Xtreme Mayhem.

The Timonium sale ended today, and the TDN reported that things were “better than expected”. I am not sure that is 100% accurate when you consider that many horses came from the canceled Fasig-Tipton Select sale originaly scheduled for late March. Those horses helped the high end of the sale, and the some decent NY and Maryland breds helped the bottom of the sale, but the middle seemed weak. That is just the conclusion of a rank amateur, but I think TDN is a little bit of a cheerleader.

I was very happy with the value on the first day.

1. Blame – c – Little Sandy by Speightstown – 3/29 – sf 97 – 2w – 10.2 – $100,000
2. Orb – f – -Grassy Nellie by Belong to Me – 2/28 – sf 96 – 3w – 10.1 – $50,000
3. Bodemeister – Seemingly by Orientate – 5/31 -sf 95 – 2w – 10.2 – $20,000

I will add 3 horses from the final day of the sale to help monitor 3 sires I want to learn more about. The first horse is my favorite from either of the two sales at any price. Over 20 years ago Chuck Zacney picked Afleet Alex out of this sale for $75,000. Today he picked this Twirling Candy for $175,000. I love the pedigree on the female side, and I am warming up to Twirling Candy. Sold for less than 5x despite a fast work and a late birthday

1. Twirling Candy – f – Who’s Cozy by Cozzene – 5/17 – sf 99 – 2w – 10.1 – $175,000
2. Exaggerator – f – Flash of Wonder by Tiz Wonderful – 4/28 – sf 80 – 10.2 – $80,000
3. Noble Mission – f – Colour Party (IRE) by Invincible Spirit – 2/18 – 10.2 – $40,000

With the 20 from Ocala, that brings the imaginary stable to 26 horses, plus the one claimer. The Ocala sale is in 3 weeks. There is no rest for the wicked.

Rather than just sit and watch, I guess I can put together a wish list of horses I hope a partnership group might buy at a premium price:

1. #359 My favorite Twirling Candy left, dam by Cozzene
2. #386 a well bred Frosted with a slow work
3. #284 my second favorite Twirling Candy
4. #367 Exaggerator ?????
5. #415 Bayern out of a Lemon Drop kid mare
6. #444 second favorite Frosted
7. #400 a very quick Maclean’s music
8. #365 and #401 Nyquist ?????
9. #563 slow working Honor Code

Some more bargain oriented horses:

1. #522 Air Force Blue ??
2. #351 Brody’s Cause with interesting pedigree
3. #425 Texas Red ????????
4. #279 Golden Lad. an interesting son of Medaglia de Oro
5. #465 Noble Mission
6. #440 Vancouver. who only galloped, no work ???????

I guess I should step away from my fantasy portfolio of horses and get back to the damn real world for a moment. West Point bought two interesting horse yesterday, not exactly what I was looking for but still interesting. I should be expecting some form of offer soon on these horses in the real world.

They paid $100,000 for an Elusive Quality colt. EQ died in 2018, so I wonder if they are think this horse has some chance to be a sire if he were modestly successful. That is a subject I know very little about. As just a horse he is kind of interesting. He worked 10.1 despite a 5/13 birthday. Mom was kind of a boring Songandprayer claimer, but there is pedigree in the 2nd dam and below. The story really is that EQ is not an exciting new sire, maybe this is a “value” pick. Would I buy 5% of this horse for $10,000? Not likely, but not impossible.

West Point also bought #160, a Vancouver colt, for $210,000. The horse work 10.2. Mom was by Pulpit, and seemed to be more of a sprinter. She produced Bad Read Sanchez (great name) who ran 3rd in the G3 Best Pal, and tried the Santa Anita Derby, and was retired shortly thereafter. As they say “could have been any kind of horse”. Vancouver has been successful it seems in the Southern hemisphere, but that is hare for me to judge. Vancouver first and only US winner came at Thistledown. Vancouver only ran 4 races, all sprints. Can he produce more than sprinters?

So my choice is either a dead sire with 19 crops, or an unknown Australian who is just getting started. That is why this is such an interesting hobby.

I know that I saw Eclipse listed as a buyer, but now their name is no longer listed.

Zilla bought an expensive Laoban, and I did not see Bourbon Lane take a swing.

QRS fired all their bullets on the first day of the Timonium sale. I could not be happier with the haul. Faced with the possibility of making an Exaggerator my top pick tomorrow, I was prepared to swing at a few other horses if the price was right.

That is exactly what happened at hip #87, a Blame colt out of a Speightstown mare with loads of long distance turf pedigree under the second dam (by Cozzene). I thought Blame’s were out of my price range if they had a decent work. This colt went 10.2, but the bidding slowed at $90,000, and ended at $100,000. I thought this was at least a $200,000 horse. I then worried it would be RNAed, but the new real owner is David Merjan. Merjan is 6 for 30 in New York using Mark Henning. Blame is a perfect late bloomer, the Speightstown mare is a little bit of a “sell out”. However the second dam produced Paved, who competed in G1’s at 1 1/4 on turf.

This is a much better result than waiting for a cheap Exaggerator on Tuesday.

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I was thrilled when the bidding stopped at $48,000 on hip #11 an Orb filly that had worked a quick 10.1, but it was quickly reported as RNA. However, late this afternoon my new “partner”, Joe Caso worked out a private sale for $50,000. Mr. Caso is 3 for 9 with one horse at Golden Gate. It will be fun to follow a new owner in Northern California. Orb is an undervalued sire, and paying only 5x for a top 10% work is a bargain.

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Both of these horses are almost TGTBT. To Good To Be True. Such low multiples on good works might be a danger sign. I can only hope these guys did their due diligence, I know that I would have.

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My last horse was #228 a Bodemeister colt with a 10.2 work. Originally reported as RNA, the great Joe Besecker is my new hero. Mr. Besecker dispersed 50 horses last fall, but then could not stay away from the game and bought 10 at Ocala. He worked out a private sale to buy my favorite cheap horse for only $20,000.

Poor Bodemeister might be in a Turkish prison, but his babies are still running over here. A Bodemeister won the stake race in NY yesterday, but nobody cares. My Bodemeister in Canada just put in a fast work at Woodbine.

As the Timonium sale is only 2 hours from liftoff, deep second guesses have started. If this were real money, it would be quite a problem. That is why I am practicing with “funny money”. Right now the I have talked myself out of several horses, and the plan is to wait for #367 the Exaggerator filly with a solid 10.2, despite a distance pedigree, and a 5/9 birthday. Can I get her for under $100,000? I think so.

But maybe:

1. #5 is a Frosted colt with a average/slow 10.3. His mom is a Pleasant Tap slow developer that did not win until she was 4, but then won the G2 Vagrancy Handicap. Isn’t tis exactly the horse I should be looking for? A Frosted out a graded stales winner for 3x, what could be better? The pinhooker paid $160,000 as a yearling, but now maybe he has to sell for less. Could I pay $120,000 and get exactly what I want?
2. Rather than take a chance with slow works, why not see if #11, #26, or #32 are available at under $120,000. They all worked 10.1 and are from unpopular sires Orb, Palace Malice, and Carpe Diem.
3. The horse I really like is #63, but again the slow work of 10.3. This is the same breeding as Mshawish, from a mare that has produced 3 winners of over $200,000. Maybe this one could sell for less than $50,000.
4. The Nyquist colt at #68 might also slip through the cracks. The breeding might suggest the 10.2 work is forgivable.

Let’s try to value all horses that worked 10.2 from sires under $40,000.

1. #13 Justin Phillip -average pedigree – 5x = $25,000
2. #49 Laoban – runner + producer – 7x = $35,000
3. #62 Ironicus – first foal +unplaced – 3x = $15,000 (but maybe new sire??)
4. #79 Bourbon Courage – winner + producer – 5x = $25,000
5. #82 Speightster – first foal + unplaced, but hot sire 8x = $40,000
6. #103 Flashback – producer 4x = $20,000
7. #105 Twirling Candy – small winner + small producer – 3x + $105,000
8. #109 Carpe Diem – first foal – no pedigree – 2x = $30,000
9. #135 Congrats – small producer – 3x – $30,000
10. #144 The Factor – small producer 3x – $50,000
11. #153 Super Saver – small winner, small producer 2x – $25,000
12. #160 Vancouver – winner + producer 7x = $70,000
13. #187 Temple City – winner + producer – 8x = $65,000
14. #189 Exaggerator – 2nd foal – 2x $40,000
15. #217 Mshawish – big winner – 10x = $125,000
16. #252 Tapiture – winner + small producer – 5x = $40,000

The median of this group is about $40,000, or about the sale median

I know from fantasy baseball that when your top picks get away from you, there can be a tendency to overpay for your second choices.

I am backing off my second choice, the Nyquist colt #68, and will only pay up to $75,000. Nyquist is not really my kind of sire, too precocious. The dam here is also difficult to evaluate because King of Kings was such a controversial horse. Since this mare produced a Bashford Manor winner, I just cannot see paying up for a 10.2 work that was probably expected. I was trying to hard to be creative, and getting too far away from my strategy. I guess if they give this horse away I will still take it.

I am also backing off because I pushed myself to look at other sires, and I found something I guess I like. I was never a fan of Exaggerator as a race horse, but I am just going to call him Son of Curlin, and close my eyes.

That leads me to #367, an Exaggerator out of a Silver Deputy mare. The work was a solid 10.2, the nick is B+, for a 5/9 filly. I will call that work faster than expected, and call this pick more in line with my strategy. She sold for $75,000 as a yearling, but the Exaggerators’s have not been selling that well. Maybe I can get her for under $120,000.

The Timonium Sale starts in about 24 hours. Let’s focus on some of the early horses and try to estimate their auction price. I will make my best guess for a price before I look to see if the horse sold as a yearling.

#2 – f – Bernardini by Storm Cat mare – 10.3 work – NY bred – 5/16 foal – nick D

A nice sire, dam and 2nd dam were runners and producers, you really could not expect more pedigree at a training sale, but son’s of AP Indy with Storm Cat has not worked if you believe the “nick” stuff. A NY-bred was a very late foal. Maybe a nice Broodmare?

I would lean to the high side of the range and say 3x or $120,000, and that could be a bargain. The yearling price was $150,000, but how much does the below average work “cost”.

#5 – c – Frosted by Pleasant Tap mare – 10.3 – 3/28 – nick C+

This was a guy I considered, but thought he would too expensive with a decent work. Mom was bred to go long, but was actually a sprinter (winner of the G2 Vagrancy).

Frosted out a stakes winner, even with the slow work I think this has to be 4x or $160,000, which is exactly what the yearling price was.

#11 – f – Orb by Belong to Me mare – 10.1 – 2/18 – nick A

I was looking for Orb’s as an undervalued sire, but I fear the fast work will push this girl out of my price range. Mom was a decent $100,000 winning horse, and produced a G3 winner.

What else could you want at a training sales, but does everyone hate Orb. I still think this will go for 10x or $100,000. Sold as a yearling for $125,000 so she could go for $150,000.

If the bidding slows at $80,000 I would be suspicious, but maybe Orb’s are just undervalued.

#19 – c – Liams Map by Lion Heart mare – 10.1 – 4/11 – nick A++

This is a hot young sire, they are searching for the next Arrogate. Mom was decent (3rd in the G3 Gulfstream Oaks), but so far a poor producer. Look at that nick. This is the ultimate ‘balanced” horse that everyone wants, but is too “sprinty” for me.

I would guess 10x, or $350,000, or maybe more. Only an $80,000 yearling, how much does the fast work get the pinhooker?

#29 – c – Medaglia de Oro by a Empire Maker mare – 10.2 – 4/26 – nick A

This will be fascinating. Mom only made $65,000, but was regally bred. the second dam is Meagan Joy’s, the producer of Ironicus. If pedigree means anything then this should be a $400,000 horse, which is only 2x, but the multiples are lower at the top end. RNAed for $200,000 as a yearling, will the pinhooker win his bet?

#31 – f -Into Mischief by a Honour and Glory mare- 10.1 – 5/12 – nick A

This is the toy that all the cool kids want, and Into Mischief with a fast work. Mom made $80,000, but has produced 2 solid offspring. There is not much pedigree, but speed an fashion will win the day. I will guess $600,000, but maybe that is too high for a filly. Not sold as a yearling or weanling.

#51 – c – Speightster by a Mizzen Mast mare – 10.0 – 3/27 – nick A++

Of the ten ultra quick 10.0’s, this is my favorite. Mom is by a son of Cozzene, out of a Secretariat mare. Mom was unplaced, but produced a black type son. The 2nd dam won the Canadian Oaks. Since a Speightster sold for $1,100,000 in Ocala, why not here.

I will guess $500,000. Sold for $50,000 as a yearling, will a pinhooker hit it big.

#62 American Pharaoh by a First Defense mare – 10.2 – 2/16 – NR

This is funny horse, the dam was not much, but their are a ton of racehorses under the 2nd and 3rd dams. I have not been watching the Pharoah market, but I would guess this should bring $200,000 for the solid work. Sold for $110,000 as a yearling.

#70 – c – Frosted by a Coronado’s Quest mare – 10.1 – nick A++

Want some pedigree? This is a quick Frosted out of the dam of Kodiak Kowboy (winner of $1,600,000 including the Carter and Vosburgh)

I would expect this horse to be quick, so the 10.1 is not that great, but the speed freaks will eat this one up. Let’s guess $500,000, but not be surprised by more. Sold for “only” $155,000 as a yearling.

#83 – f – Pioneerof the Nile by a Medaglia de Oro mare – 10.2 – 2/27 – nick B

A ton or pedigree, and the dam has already produced a foal that ran 4th in the BC juvenile turf race. Guess is $250,000

#87 – c – Blame by a Speightown mare – 10.2 – 3/29 – nick B+

The mental picture of Nadal will be the minds of the bidders. I would be surprised by less than $200,000, Sold as a yearling for $72,000

Rather than buy 20 horses like we did at Ocala, let’s just focus on 3.

First let’s say we had $100,000, with the leeway to go to $120,000 if necessary

1. #68 a Nyquist colt with strange Euro pedigree that just might not sell to the speed crazed crowd. Maybe this is too creative, buy I like creative.
2. #415 a Bayern colt with a fast 2f work they might pass by because they just hate Bayern that much
3. #522 a AIr Force Blue filly that just might be too creative. You have to believe these will not just be turf sprinters.
4. #563 a Honor Code as a last resort

Second let’s try to find a nice horse for under $50,000:

1. #228 back to Bodemeister
2. #277 an interesting Fed Biz
3. #257 Brody’s Cause

Third lets try the bargain in the under $25,000 market:

1. #279 Golden Lad
2. #425 Texas Red
3. #508 Tourist

After two days of works the times a distributed in an almost perfect “Bell Curve”

1. 7 works of 10.0
2. 39 works of 10.1
3. 57 works of 10.2
4. 57 works of 10.3
5. 37 works of 10.4
6. 14 works of 11.0
7. 8 works of over 11.0

The Ocala sale had a bigger ‘bulge” toward slower horses. So in general, it seems Timonium has fewer bad horses. If you look at the distribution above only one strategy suggests itself. The 10.0 and 10.1 will be too expensive, the 10.2 are the place to shop, and the 10.3 are too risky.

Remember a 10.3 can be anything from 10.60 to 10.79, the convention is not to “round” off the numbers. So a reported 10.3 could mean almost anything, it be an ok top 42% or it could be a pretty poor top 74%. That is too wide a range to accept 10.3. if you only accept 10.2 your range is top 22% to top 47%, which is acceptable.

What is more confusing is that the number of two furlongs works is down considerably to only 13% of all works, down from nearly 30% at Ocala. That makes the 2f works harder to judge because the sample size is almost getting too small.

In the first two days the 6 horses I focused on all worked 10.3 or worse, and none even tried 2f. My “expected slow horses” all worked slow, not one was even average becasue you really cannot call 10.3 average, it might be bottom 25%.

I hope all the money chases the 10.0 and 10.1’s, and leaves some bargains in the 10.2’s,

Right now my top ideas are:

1. #228 a Bodemeister colt with 5/31 birthday whose 10.2 was better than expected
2. #277 a Fed Biz colt, I am warming to the story of this son of Giant’s Causeway
3. #279 a Golden Lad filly with plenty of slow Euro-pedigree that went 10.2
4. I am hoping #415 and #482 go 10.2, because 10.1 will raise too much attention, and 10.3 is too slow even for me.

This seems like a strange way to look at things, but if you stare at that distribution for awhile it is the only possible conclusion. Would you pay $100,000 for any 10.3 even a Frosted or a Honor Code (stud fee $40,000)? I would not.

Yesterday was an important learning day. I opened an ad in Thorooughbred Daily News and entered the world of horse sale “data analytics”. I knew this information was available, I just had not focussed on it. I knew the guys at Dare to Dream sometimes discussed things like stride length when talking about horse they looked at. The ad I saw was from a firm called DataTrack International. It appears there are at least six different competitors.

DataTrack has at least 6 different products. They go from something simple like a BreezeFig which is one number that evaluates workouts by something other than raw time, to more complex biomechanical analysis. They also do heart evaluation. All the information is a little intimidating. How can you compete without this information?

That is an important question. I am sure this information is not $20/horse. The ad does not discuss pricing, that is a bad sign. Does everyone use this information? How do the competitors differ? Can the performance of these tools be measured?

So many questions and so few answers. One thing that was interesting was a fantasy horse selection competition held by TDN among the different data providers, it was last held in 2005, but DataTrack is still quoting the results.

My first reaction is that I certainly need this data if I am going to spend $500,000 on a horse, but what about $50,000. I need to learn more before spending real money, but for now I will wait until after the July Ocala sale to bother these guys.

In one of the videos that supports their ad they the tell the story of The Green Monkey. This was a horse that sold for $16 million from a training sale in 2006. The horse ran three races and was retired. Slow motion stride analysis showed his feet actually hit the ground in the incorrect order. I am not sure what lesson to learn from the story.

Which stud farm is the most importat?. I took the list of the top 100 sire based North American earning for 2019, and gave 99 points for 1st (Into Mischief) and 1 point for 100 (Include). A farm only got credit for a sire still active

The results:

1. Winstar 670
2. Lane’s End 581
3. Darly 434
4. Hill ‘N’ Dale 381
5. Spendthrift 349
6. Ashford 276
7. Claiborne 254
8. Gainsway 173
9. Three Chimneys 106
10. Adena Springs 99
11. Ardrie 89
12. Calumet 81
13. Pin Oak 69
14. Darby Dan 37
15. Crestwood 34
16. Juddmonte 14

California, Louisiana, Florida, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, West Virginia all had one between 50 and 30

I got the TrueNicks report for all the horses I bought imaginarily for over $30,000 at the Ocala sale..

The rough method is comparing the percentage of stakes winners from all matings of your sire with all the daughters of that broodmare sire, compared to the general population for your sire and that broodmare sire.

For example Frosted (the one I bought is by a Maria’s Mon mare) is a new sire so they go back to all the sons of Tapit, and find the ones bred to daughters of Maria’s Mon, and calculate percentage of stakes winners. They then compare that to the percentage of stakes winners of Tapit sons with all other daughters, and they also compare the percentage of stakes winners by all Maria’s Mon mares when bred to sons of Tapit with the percentage of stakes winners when Maria’s Mon mare are bred with all other sires.

You half to think about all that for a while, but it eventually makes sense. Is stakes winners the best measure? Are the sample sizes large enough?

Here are results:

1. Violence – $125 – B
2. Maclean’s Music – $110 – B
3. Bayern – $100 – A++
4. Frosted – $65 – A
5. Point of Entry $65 – A+
6. Dialed In – $47 – A
7. Macleans Music – $47 – B
8. Ironicus – $47 – C
9. Carpe Diem – $40 – C
10. Summer Front – $35 – A

In dollar terms this is 90% of what I bought.

TrueNicks reports that only 13% of horses are rated A or better, and just 30% are B, but that is of the total population. I wonder what the distribution is for the Ocala sale? It seems the people “building” these horses must pay some attention to “nicks”

Or perhaps it is all statistical mumbo jumbo that means almost nothing.

95% of the times I mention speed figures in this blog they will the numbers reported in Equibase, because that is a free database. Beyer figures are more accurate, but costly to obtain.

Beyer figures are better because they are adjusted by real breathing people, Equibase is only done by computer. Go to any big dollar handicapping tournament and you will find 75% using the Daily Racing Form (Beyer), 20% Ragozin, Thorograph, or other, and maybe 5% what we call the program number. That was true 20 years ago and today.

I think in Beyer terms, but what is the proper adjustment for Equibase numbers?

I calculated the differences for about 30 horses from a recent DRF. For our purposes I will mentally use the following, but continue to use the Equibase numbers as reported:

In the East and Midwest Equibase is 10-12 points too high, turf or dirt

In Southern California Equibase is 15-17 points too high, turf or dirt

This is only for Beyers above 80, the difference would be greater for cheaper horses because Beyer number decline faster toward 0.

Equibase number also have a greater degree of variability, Beyers are “smoother”. Be very careful no to grab just one “top” Equibase number that in higher than the rest. Equibase will have more variability on off tracks, and soft turf.

This is a complex subject. I would pay DRF $10 (for a report on the dam) if I were buying 10% of a $200,000 horse, but not for for 2% of a $50,000 horse.

For Equibase I generally use:

1. 110+ is graded stakes winning time
2. 100-105+ is a solid allowance horse
3. 90-95+ is a solid MSW horse
4. 80-85+ is a higher $ Maiden Claimer ($40,000)
5. 70-75+ is a lower level MC ($20,000)

Fillies are 5- 8 points lower, as are state breds

These are for better tracks, it might be 10 points lower an Indiana Downs, Lone Star, etc.

Reasonable people can disagree about these differences, but I think my estimates are close.

In most cases the mental adjustment is good enough.

What have I accomplished in the 3+ weeks of writing this blog?

Most importantly, the blog has kept me from watching more than 30 minutes of MSNBC or Fox News. I have not heard more than 10 minutes of sports radio updating me on the latest Dak Prescott news. Who cares? I have 2000 horses to value, and yearling sales to prepare for. I love to analyze things. Stocks, politics, chess, golf swings, fantasy baseball, sports betting, and pick-6’s, had been my main concerns. Now I have a new one, horse sales.

Some people like travel, some like to do family stuff, and others like to watch beautiful sunsets, I like to analyze things.

On a more practical level:

1. I selected a 20 horse portfolio from the June Ocala sale to track for the next 2 years
2. I got on the mailing list of 15 different partnership groups
3. I bought 4 different 2-3% interests in real horses from 3 different partnership groups, and will continue to evaluate new offers
4. I laid out a horse selection strategy, and compared it to other more common strategies
5. I selected a portfolio of yearlings to compare with the Ten Strike real portfolio
6. I selected a portfolio of 10 bargain yearlings

It will not be easy to keep track of all there horses once the running begins, but it will “keep me off the streets”.

I guess chapter 1 of this “story” will conclude with the Ocala July sale, then chapter 2 will be the yearling sales, and chapter 3 will be the results of the 2-yr old racing culminating in the Breeders Cup,

Since I am not that excited about the Timonium sale let’s push to find some new sires to at least think about.

When I heard a Randy Bradshaw interview, he said he liked the looks of the Air Force Blue horses he saw at Ocala. Two sold for $400,000 and two sold for about $200,000. Air Force Blue was a European turf sprinter, but his female family suggest he could be more (out of a Maria’s Mon mare, think Monarchos and Super Saver). Maybe they will not like to work on the dirt at Timonium. There are 4 to look at.

#377 jumps right to the top of the list out of stakes winning Rock Hard Ten mare. A decent 2nd is #14 with a 2nd dam by El Prado. These are reasonable horses to think about, if you want to go with more balanced horses.

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Let’s continue to think “outside the box” just a little. Effinex died tragically after siring only one crop. He was a son of Mineshaft, and a grandson of AP Indy. Let’s see if we can balance him with a sprinter.

#33 jumps of the page with a cool dam by sprinter Housebuster, but great distance pedigree is the 2nd dam. Also a NY-bred

#397 almost looks like a joke, but in kind of interesting. The dam is daughter of Disco Rico, bred to a mare named Disco Millie. The 2nd dam is well bred.

If you believe in balanced horse these are two interesting candidates

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One group of horses that caught my eye at Ocala were the Speightster’s. I was surprised that many chose to work two furlongs. Speightster’s only claim to fame is winning the Dwyer and his pedigree does not suggest distance. Let’s just imagine he is as Brad Cox “a miler you just might be able to stretch out.” Another thing of note was the smart guys at OXO paid $1,100,000 for one in Ocala. Kimmel bought one for $185,000.

I will insist on some distance pedigree on the dam side and consider:

#562 by Maria Mon, #51 by Mizzen Mast, #210 by Bellamy Road, #358 by Silver Deputy, #562 by AP Indy.

These horses are not completely crazy, and a much better idea than paying up for a full Speightstown or Munnings.

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I dismissed the 4 Bodemeister’s, but under the idea of building a balanced horse they are all back in #414, #381, #228, and #21

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I will even make myself think about sons of Uncle Mo. Outwork horses worked poorly and sold poorly at Ocala so let’s call them value and give them a second look #106 and #283

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Continuing with the undervalued theme let’s at least consider three by Will Take Charge who did not have a good Ocala, #477, #298, and # 143.

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That’s enough mental “stretching” for the morning, but it does make me slightly more interested in the sale, especially the 2 Air Force Blue’s.

The Timonium Sale works starts tomorrow, so let’s lay outa general strategy. This could all change depending on the works and the outs. I will be looking for just 3 horses at under $100,000, under $50,000 and under $25,000.

There are two horses I love, #140, and #63, and two that I really like #415 and #482. If any of my partnership folks buy these horses I would have to seriously consider investing. These the prime candidates for the under $100,000 spot.

#140 is a Carpe Diem filly out of a old AP Indy mare that has produced 7 winners. TrueNicks rates the combination a A. She was born 5/13. Let’s pray for an average work. She sold as yearling for $50,000.

#63 is a Violence colt out of a Thunder Gulch mare that has produced 5 winners. The 2nd dam is by Strawberry Road, another of my favorite distance influences.

#415 is a Bayern colt out of a Lemon Drop kid mare. He was born May 15th. The 2nd dam was a G2 winner. Sold for $75,000 as a yearling.

#482 is a Liam’s map filly out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. The second dam was a fancy horse. Sold for $92,000 as a yearling.

I have several candidates for the under $50,000 and $25,000 slots

Roughly is order 161,257, 41, 255, 409, 84, 53, 375, and 351

I expect each of these horses to work in the bottom quintile, and will be thrilled if they have an average work, or if they even work at all. Fasig-Tipton seems to be doing a better job of reporting who is out.

What if I am wrong? Let’s try the bargain yearling strategy, but trying to build a balanced horse. I used to same sires, but tried to pick a dam with sprinter/miler pedigree. If they won at 2 even better. I fear this is what the pinhookers are looking for, but it worth a try. Again these are all horses bought at the September Keeneland yearling sale in 2019.

1. Freedom Rider – Carpe Diem – $45,000 – David Raim
2. One Most Wanted – Point of Entry – $35,000 – Robert Hess
3. Own the Outcome – Tonalist – $20,000 – Lori Collinsworth
4. unknown – Noble Mission – $12,000 – Best Friend Partners (Cruz to the Top)
5. unknown – Summer Front – $15,000 – Lorraine Kingston (Blushing Touch)
6. Jaxons Tour Guide – Tourist – $45,000 – Dave Kenny
7. Raising Sand – Brody’s Casuse – $9,000 – Value Play Stable
8. unknown – Maclean’s Music – $47,000 – Deryck Lynch (More Angels)
9. Notreallynotreally – Bayern – $32,000 – David Goldman
10. Flowers for K K – Flintshire – $40,000 – Joey Peacock

It will be interesting to see how many of these discount yearlings even make it to the races, or how many win the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

Inspired by a $40,000 Flashback yearling that became a BC champion, lets build a portfolio of cheaper yearlings. These are not the cheapest, I want to pay 2x to 5 x for these horses. I will look for horses bought by people who want to race them, not pinhook them. These are all from the September Keeneland sale.

1. Aikman – Carpe Diem – $25,000 – Danial Pita
2. Big Big Plans – Point of Entry – $17,000 – Nick Gonzales
3. Whistlers Style – Tonalist – $55,000 – Frank Lewkowitz
4. Star Mission – Noble Mission – $27,000 – Ken McPeek
5. God’s Pick – Summer Front – $13,000 – Weldon Johnson
6. LaTourista – Tourist – $30,000 – Travis Murphy
7. Spanish Rider – Ironicus – $14,000 – Red Stable
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music – $30,000 – Jeff Greenhill
9. not known – Bayern – $35,000 – Emblem Stables (dam=Dynagreen)
10. Elle Est Forte – Flintshire $50,000 – GBW Racing

This is a high risk strategy. Let’s see how it works. All of these are “slow” horses with lots of distance pedigree on the dam side.

Ten Strike made an interesting admission during their podcast. They admitted that the rate of return was probably measurably higher on mid-price ($40,000 to $60,000), than it was on more expensive horses. The big upside comes at $100,000 plus. Maybe this is obvious, maybe it is not. Of course the upside they are primarily looking for is the next son of Into Mischief or Munnings that could be a sire. That is where the money is.

The guys said all you could hope for is a decent horse that could win an allowance race from a $50,000 sale horse. Of course sitting right next to them was a young lady that selected a $40,000 daughter of the obscure sire Flashback at a yearling sale. That horse was British Idiom, the BC Juvenile filly winner last year.

Let me tell you an old investment story that explains why I am so completely opposed to some popular sires like Into Mischief.

The Goldman Sach’s pharmaceutical analyst came into our office. He gave a brilliant one hour presentation on everything happening in the industry. He knew his stuff cold.

We began discussing individual stocks and one my fellow analysts asked the following stunning but perceptive question:

How much higher would Merck’s stock have to go before you would have to recommend it?

Everyone stopped, some laughed, but the analyst paused, reflected a moment and said:

That is the best question anyone has ever asked me in 20 years. What ensued was a 30 minute discussion of the pressure he felt to recommend anything that was popular, without any regard to the price.

In fact he admitted that the higher the stock went the more pressure there was to put it on his recommended list. Portfolio managers wanted to buy it, why not recommend it. This is the plight of experts in any marketing oriented business.

Every time I hear an analyst, and now bloodstock agent speak, I am haunted by this old conversation.

For 25 years I was the director of research for a publication called Behind the Numbers. We told professional investors what stocks to sell, not buy

It seems the horse industry could use the same thing.

How about:

Behind the Bridal??

Sires of $15,000 or more and their sons:

1. War Front 250 — Air Force Blue 15, The Factor 18, Summer Front 15, Jack Milton 8
2. Medaglia de Oro – 200 —Violence 25, Fast Anna 10, Mshawish 13, Vancouver 20, Golden Lad 5
3. Quality Road – 200 – City of Light 40, Klimt 10
4. Tapit – 200 —Anchor Down 8, Constitution 40, Frosted 40, Tapiture 10, Tapizar 10, Tonalist 15, Race Day 8
5. Curlin – 175 — Exaggerator 20, Jess’s Dream 5, Palace Malice 25, Vino Rosso 30
6. Uncle Mo – 125 — Nyquist 25, Outwork 15, Laoban 5
7. Candy Ride – 100 — Twirling Candy 40, Gun Runner 70
8. Pioneerof the Nile – 100 —American Pharoah 70, Cairo Price 25, Classic Empire 25, Social Inclusion 5
9. Smart Strike xxx – Curlin 175, English Channel 35, Lookin at Lucky 20, Dominus 5
10. Into Mischief – 175 – Goldencents 25, Audible 25, Practical Joke 25
11. Ghostzapper – 85 – McCraken 10
12. Giants Causeway xxx — Not This Tine 13, Carpe Diem 15, Creative Cause 15, First Samurai 15, Brodys Cause 8, Fed Biz 8
13. More Than Ready – 80 — Catholic Boy 25
14. Empire Maker – 75 —Bodemeister 10, Sky Kingdom 5
15. Kittens Joy – 75 —Big Blue Kitten 10, Oscar Performance 20
16. Street Sense – 75
17. Speightstown – 70 – Munnings 30, Central Banker 8, Speightster 10, Tamacruz 10
18. American Pharoah – 70 est.
19. Malibu Moon – 60 — Orb 10, Flashback 4
20. Awesome Again xxx – Qxbow 10, Paynter 10, Ghostzapper 85
21. Unbridled Song xxx— Arrogate 50, Liams Map 35, Broken Vow 25, Cross Traffic 25, Midshipman 8, Will Take Charge 15, Graydar 5
22. Union Rags – 60. – Free Drop Billy 10
23. Distorted Humor – 50 — Maclean’s Music 20, Jimmy Creed 15, Alternation 10, Khozan 10, Ironicus 5
24. Arrogate – 50
25. Constitution – 40
26. Bernardini – 40 — Algorithms 5
27. Flatter – 40 — West Coast 35, Upstart 10, Flat Out 3
28. Frosted – 40
29. Nyquist – 40
30. Hard Spun – 40 — Wicked Strong 6
31. Tiznow – 40 – Gemologist 5, Strong Mandate 5, Tourist 5
32. Twirling Candy – 40
33. Blame – 35
34. English Channel – 35
35. Liam’s Map – 35
36. Munnings – 30
37. Honor Code – 30
38. Kantharos – 30
39. Broken Vow – 25
40. Cairo Prince – 25
41. Palace Malice – 25
42. Runhappy – 25
43. Goldencents – 25
44. Violence – 25
45. Lemon Drop Kid 20
46. Maclean’s Music – 20 — Cloud Computing 10
47. Noble Mission – 20
48. Dialed in – 20
49. Mineshaft – 20 — Dialed In 20
50. Street Boss – 20
51. Looking at Lucky – 20
52. Take Charge Indy – 18
53. The Factor -18
54. Air Force Blue – 15
55. Bayern – 15
56. Carpe Diem – 15
57. Creative Cause – 15
58. Cross Traffic – 15
59. Flintshire – 15
60. Outwork – 15
61. Jimmy Creed – 15
62. Point of Entry – 15
63. Sky Mesa – 15
64. Will Take Charge – 15

In my first post 3 weeks ago I gave a list of what I thought were “undervalued sires”

This is the updated list:

1. Maclean’s Music – Cloud Computing is the model
2. Point of Entry – anything Dynaformer
3. Carpe Diem – still a believer, but fading slightly
4. Ironicus – West Point bought one
5. Tonalist – Tapit + Pleasant Colony
6. Frosted – hoping they will be slow to develop
7. Bayern – not well liked
8. Summer Front – still a believer in Ete Indien
9. Tourist – no hype here
10. Mshawish – 2nd favorite turf sire
11. Flintshire – Eclipse bought one
12. Noble Mission – not very popular
13. Dialed In – too much hype
14. Wicked Strong – almost forgotten
15. Temple city – still an idea, but fading
16. Anything shipper overseas – Super Saver, Bodemeister

After listening to the Ten Strike podcast I just had to go back and build my competing portfolio of “slow” horses. I went back to the Keeneland September yearling sale and picked out 9 horses that I liked and will now be entered into a fierce competition with the Ten Strike horses. Not all the horses on the podcast are on the TS website so I will not list them all.

They have one horse I love in their portfolio which is an Empire Maker colt, out of a Kingmambo mare that I think is fantastic (Sharp Rocket). It will be in my portfolio as well. They have bought many horses in partnership with other owners this allows them to invest in much higher quality horses. I will also buy part of horses, and invest about the same amount in total.

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker by Kingmambo 25% of $375
2. The Honorable One – Honor Code by Tiznow 20% of $600
3. Prize Fighter – Frosted by Medaglia de Oro 50% of $260
4. Victory March – Maclean’s Music by Pleasant Tap 50% of $210
5. xxxxxxxxx – Carpe Diem by Lemon Drop Kid 50% of $200 (hip #495)
6. Warn – Declaration of War by Arch 25% of $140
7. Shirelle – Point of Entry by Consolidator 25% of $150 (a Parcells buy)
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music by Jump Start 100% of $30
9. LaTourista – Tourist by Broken Vow 100% of $30

I will invest a little less so I have money to cover expenses on my slow developers.

I really like my new yearling portfolio. It concentrates on what I think are undervalued sires, and adds distance pedigree on the dam side. My group has two clear turf horses, Ten Strike has basically none. My portfolio certainly has no Munnings or Into Mischiefs

30 months from now we will see who does better. That is why they have horse races.

Please remember their is good reason my first boss called me “an arrogant bastard”. I refused to listen to the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. I almost never agreed with the most highly respected Wall Street analysts and strategists.

That is why I am going to completely disagree with both Brad Cox and the bloodstock agent the picked BC winners Monomoy Girl and British Idiom. On the Ten Strike podcast they clearly disagree with my strategy. In fact, they very precisely say looking for distance pedigree on both sides of a horse is the biggest mistake they ever made. Cox very clearly states he loves miler pedigrees that he hopes he can stretch out. Both say you have to have speed and precocity in the modern horse. They put together a 9 horse portfolio where the key horses are 2 Munnings and 2 Into Mischiefs and think these horses can go two turns.

The Wall Street people I met were some of the smartest people in the world. But they worked in an industry where they were very highly paid to advocate the consensus. The consensus is very comfortable. It makes you a lot of friends. I have deep respect for Mr. Cox and Ms. Crow and what they have accomplished, but I do disagree with them. I think you pay to much when you go to the sales and look for precocious horses.

The strategy I advocate will make you feel highly uncomfortable, and that should make you happy.

I just listened to a very educational podcast done by the guys at Ten Strike. It was a discussion of the 9 horses in their partnership for this year (already closed). It includes interviews with the founders of Ten Strike, their trainer Brad Cox, and their bloodstock agent. It answered so many questions. I have five pages of notes, and I never take notes

It is not available on their website, you have to ask to get a copy. It was a very detailed discussion of their history and process. It was done by Peter Fornatale, who has a podcast called In the Money Players Podcast.

I will be forever grateful to the guys at Ten Strike for the amazing insight into their process. I guess I am all to familiar with arrogant hedge fund bastards who hide behind a mystical cloak of generalities.

I am not sure this is a perfect metaphor, but it might help everyone understand.

There is kind of a race among the partnerships groups to get a significant investment from me. This will be a very long race (maybe two years) and the gate has just opened. I am pretty sure I will wait to see how the yearling market looks before I make any bigger decision

1. Dare to Dream has the early lead with two horses, I like what they did at Ocala
2. Hibiscus broke well with a Tonalist colt I love
3. Pewter Stable also broke well, any NY handicapper knows to always respect the Philly shippers
4. Eclipse started well with very solid offer on a Mshawish turf horse
5. West Point I will talk with tomorrow
6. Bona Ventures has an interesting Vancouver to think about
7. Bourbon Lane, I will be watching what they do at Timonium
8. Donegal will have to wait for the yearling sales this fall
9. Ten Strike will have to wait until the fall, only yearlings
10. myracehorse.com broke slowly from the gate
11. Zilla, Starlight, Ironhorse, Brilliant, Bradley, and Little Red Feather, are still at the starting gate.
12. Team Valor scratched since they will no longer do US racing.

The good news is that anyone can enter the race at any time.

I am not sure how to evaluate the thoroughbred breeding concept of “nicks”. At first it seems to be a logical idea, certain sires seem to do better with mares whose father has a certain breeding. Then you get into the decision of how to quantify these relationships and everything gets a little murky. There seems to a great number of pedigree “experts” that are selling various quantitative approaches.

This is where my “BS” radar starts to go off. 30 years in the financial markets have taught me there are always people selling a quantitative answer to a difficult question. The answer seems appealing because it gives you a number, but how sound are the statistics behind that number? I have much more to learn here. It will be interesting to see how i feel about this issue in one year.

Someone must believe it because the TrueNicks website shows that 1,400,000 TrueNick reports have been generated in 2020.

I noted that the Thoroughbred Daily News reports a nicks rating for each stakes winner. I noticed that the West Point stakes winner yesterday was an A+++, but another stakes winner was a D

Reading the Bloodhorse Magazine online I was offered a free TrueNicks report.

I input my imaginary purchase of Quixote’s Blueprint, the Maclean’s Music colt out of a Pulpit mare. It came back with a nick rating of B+, not bad for a beginner.

Of course I cheated, because I knew that Maclean’s Music’s big horse Cloud Computing was out an AP Indy mare. This was the reason that Quixote’s Blueprint was my top choice from the Ocala sale.

The report had some useful statistics. It informed my about some existing horse with similar breeding, including a new 2-yr old that Assmusen won with 2 days ago at Churchill

Which reminds me I need to get better organized so I do not miss there 2-yr old races.

Congratulations to myracehorse.com for winning the last race at Belmont at 15-1. If I had been alive in my pick 3, they would be my new heroes. It looks like they own the horse with Winning Move Stable. The horses myracehorse.com bought at Ocala were very reasonable.

I am going to try to stay positive in this blog, but something should be said. Twenty minutes before the Belmont I was watching a random You Tube chess video. Up popped a myracehorse.com commercial. Let’s give someone credit, they certainly directed the ad to the right guy. I have bought parts of 4 horses in the last two weeks.

The ad was very well done with nice visuals and a good story. 90% of the add was great, but in the last few seconds they threw in “and eligible for $2,000,000 in bonuses” and while I am sure this is technically true it is hype of the very worst kind. It is not good for the industry, and it destroys their credibility.

I am sorry, I am an old crusty financial guy who has no patience with financial hucksterism.

Please guys, buy some good horses, help people have fun with racing, run a cool website, but stop the silly stuff. I will not judge myracehorse.com forever for one bad ad, but I will now be watching with a little less respect.

Congratulations to West Point for winning the G2 Penne Ridge with a $200,000 Declaration of War from the September Keeneland yearling sale and then nearly winning the G1 Jaipur.

Let’s dig a little further into Decorated Invader. The sire Declaration of War is son of War Front, out a Rahy mare (a distance influence). The dam of Decorated Invader was a one hit wonder, she won her only race with an 86. She had 6 foals in the catalog, 3 winners, none for more than $100,000.

More importantly she was by Arch out an old Nureyev mare with a ton of pedigree. West Point did their homework because this horse does not “jump off the page”

Someday I would like to buy part of a similar horse. That is what all this work is for.

Who is the next Declaration of War? I think this was from his 3rd crop. How about Point of Entry or Mshawish, or Flintshire

Two months ago I would have left the Lone Star simulcast pavilion moaning about short price favorites in short field stakes races. Today I stayed home to look through the Ocala catalog, and only lost $60 on my pick 3 stab. I would have lost much more trying to beat the other short price horses. Let’s call it a good day.

Congratulations to the Sackatoga guys. It is important to understand what they did right when they bought Tiz the Law at the August 2018 NY bred yearling sales.

1. they went to the NY bred sale, not the fancy show a few days earlier
2. they bought a first crop sire, who did not win as a 2-yr old, and ran his best race at 4 years old (the Donn Handicap) at 1 1/8 miles
3. the Tiznow mare did not win until July of her 3-yr old season, the mare was solid (running a 105), but was claimed for $50,000 and really improved when she was 4 years old. The 2nd dam was more stamina by Go for Gin.
4. They paid 4.4 x the stud fee at the time ($25,000), the median price at the sale was $76,000. I would guess the multiple they paid was average at best. 60 horses sold for more, only 30 sold for less that night.
5. Only two other Constitutions sold (one for $210,000 and another for $20,000), it was not a popular sire at the time
6. The mare had produced 2 winners from 3 foals, one was solid ($170,000 in Indiana) the other inconsequential ($14,000)

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Gambling was a loss of $62.50. I could have paid an extra $12.50 to add Tiz the Law to my pick 3. But the payoff was a dramatically underlayed $67. A better bet would have been a $3 late double 5×5 or $75 which would have paid $315. If Tiz the Law had lost the pick 3 would have been fantastic.

I promise not to report the workout of every Quixote Stable horse, only the important ones. Blonde on Tap wasted no time getting to work. She went 36.60 at Keeneland, 9/43

I know some trainers will give a horse a break after the sale, but this one got off to a nice start.

I am using the Equibase Stable Mail service to keep track of my horses, real and imaginary.

I though I was going a little crazy. I just did not find may interesting ideas in the Timonium catalog. I have maybe 5 stong ideas from the 560+ plus horses. Some of those might be too expensive looking at the yearling prices.

I looked through the Ocala catalog (about 1000 horses) this morning and found about 20 strong ideas. That is very similar to what I had for the June Ocala sale. Why the difference?

I heard a leading pinhooker, Randy Bradshaw, do an interview with Steve Byk. He hinted that consigners were nervous about how Fasig-Tipton was handling the pandemic planning, so he was keeping his better horses in Florida.

I also talked with two other partnership people who presented the idea that the Poly/Tapeta surface at Ocala was not the preferred surface of true dirt horses. Maybe my leaning toward turf and dirt pedigrees means more of those horse will be found in Ocala. Maybe it was all the Maryland and Penn bred in the Timonium sale. Most likely I an just crazy.

My ideas for Ocala:

1. Macleans Music 773, 825
2. Tonalist 972, 275
3. Ironicus 129, 521
4. Air Force Blue 252
5. Carpe Diem 106
6. Flintshire 168, 397
7. Jack Milton 474
8. Noble Mission 587
9. Orb 257, 281, 539
10. Palice Malice 77
11. Sky Mesa 674
12. Sumer Front 25, 90, 130
13. Super Saver 756
14. Tourist 162
15. Upstart 860
16. Vancouver 562, 939
17. Violence 645, 686
18. Wicked Strong 402, 544

After selecting 20 horses from the Ocala June sale to watch, the obvious but puzzling question was how find the new name for each Hip#. Best I can tell OBS does not report the new name for each hip# sold.

I thought I would just have to watch the PP’s for all two year old races and hope I caught each one as they entered. That seemed wildly inefficient.

Luckily, there is a better way. The trick is equineline.com. They have a free Auction Search function. Your can enter the name of any sire and will show you all the horses by that sire sold in 2020. Quickly scan down the list of dams and find your horse.

For example, I know that Dare to Dream bought a Tapiture filly (hip#162) at the Ocala sale out of a mare named Okie Blond. To find out if that horse has a name go here:

http://www.equineline.com/Free-Auction-Results.cfm?upsellReferenceNumber=&upsellHorseName=&upsellBreedType=&upsellHorseType=&upsellYOB=&lookupAuctionResults=true&tempHorseType=&tempSale=ALL&tempYear=%23form.year%23&search_type=SIRE&reference_number=9064185&horse_name=Tonalist&horse_type=2&year=2020&sale=ALL&consignor_id=&consignor_name=&buyer_id=&buyer_name=&price_range_low=&price_range_high=&submitImage=&availableConsignors=&availableBuyers=

Type in Tapiture, search for 2yr olds in 2020

The report shows a list of the 19 Tapiture offspring sold in 2020. The second name on the list reports on the mare Okie Blonde, the new name is shown as Blonde on Tap.

Of the 19 Tapiture 2 yr-olds sold, 9 have new names, and 10 remain unnamed as of June 20th.

You learn a little more each day.

Eventually I will have to become an Equineline customer. The one service they have that seems available nowhere else is a report of the results of every time a mare is bred and what the sales result was.

For example, before I buy a new horse produced by the mare Okie Blonde, I would like to know what each here children had sold for in the past.

For that privilege it seems you need to pay Equineline $347/year. Nobody said the horse business is cheap.

I will need to learn to say no, or my real world stable will grow to the size of my imaginary stable. In the last week I have tried to get on all the mailing lists.

The most intriguing offer came from Eclipse which was offering a Mshawish filly that they will share with Peter Miller. The filly worked a very fast 20.4 at the sale, and is already in California with Miller. You could buy as little as 3%. This is a sire I am interested, but in principle I have to decide not to chase the fast work.

This will be a fascinating one to watch. This could be a very good horse.

Another interesting offer came from Bona Ventures with shares available in their nice Vancouver from the Ocala sale. This NY bred could be a solid money maker. This was also a difficult pass.

The McPeek/Magdelena partnership all have high minimums.

Bourbon Lane has a $10,000 minimum investment. It will be interesting to see if they buy something at Timonium.

What will tomorrows email bring?

The real world list of horses I own part of is now as follows:

1. Quick Tempo – c – Tapizar – Dare to Dream – 2% – Chris Davis – $75,000
2. Blond on Tap – f – Tapiture – Dare to Dream – 2% – Chris Davis – $45,000
3. Song Saver – f – Super Saver – Pewter Stable – 2.5% – Kate DeMasi – $25,000
4. Tonalistic – c – Tonalist. – Hibiscus Stable – 3% – Steve Klesaris – $35,000

Since I will need to pay my pro-rata share of expenses of these horses, if they are not earning purse money. I need to slow down my acquisition rate or the next thing I will be learning is how the bankruptcy system works.

I knew I should have taken up bowling instead of horses.

I was glancing through the website of some partnerships I had not looked at before.

There he was starring back at me. Just what I was looking for.

A Belmont Stakes winning sire, bred to a mare sired by a Belmont Stakes winner, with an average work, 10.1. Tonalist by a Lemon Drop Kid mare. He is also a NY bred.

Hibiscus Stable bought him out of the March Ocala sale, and still had a few shares left. They only paid $35,000 for him. Anyone who has had misfortune off reading my 60 prior posts , understands this is my dream horse. He is already taking slow breezes at Delaware Park, but will race in NY under Steve Klesaris.

I really was not intending to buy another horse, three was enough. I could not let this one pass by, so I signed up for 3%..

Now I have to handicap the Belmont from the perspective of a horse buyer. It is ok to cheer for Tiz the Law. The Sackatoga guys only paid $110,000 as a yearling in the Saratoga sale. This was really before Constitution got hot as a sire, so would call this a mid-range buy. The dam was quite a race horse so, you could even call this a good value purchase. I will bet against him tomorrow because the one-turn 1 1/8 is difficult for any horse to navigate. Strange things happen when any horse goes from two turns, to a long straightaway. If this were two turns ad Aqueduct, he would be solid choice. Now anything can happen, but who can beat him?

As a value buyer I have to cheer for Sole Volante. He was bought for just $20,000 in the April 2019 Ocala training sale. He worked a slow 10.2 and 3 other Karakontie’s sold for more. Who says there is no value at the Ocala sale? The dam was out of Kingmambo, a slow developer, and British bred 2nd dam. Sole Volante is exactly the type of horse I have talking about. You could easily use this horse as a blueprint. Somewhat obscure sire, a below average work, and a female family that is not precocious, mix it all together and you get the second choice in the Belmont Stakes for $20,000.

Maybe I am not as crazy as I think I am.

That said, I will not be betting of him. I do not believe in a horse runnings back in 10 days. I would not run a $8,000 claimer back i 10 days. I know the old school guys think this is alright, I disagree. I will be cheering, not betting.

I guess I will have to bet on the Florida bred, Tap it To Win. Tapit, out of a Meaglia do Oro mare is the best pedigree to get 1 1/8 by far. Can he he survive if the cheap speed pushes him, I hope so. But just in case I will hedge with a few of the closers, Pneumatic, Modernist, and even Max Player.

4 of the 10 entrants sent through the sales ring, 3 sold as yearlings. Todd’s Dr. Post sold for $400,000.

I think Tiz the Law is the wrong horse. I still have Ete Indien to win the Haskell and the Derby, or maybe a complete outsider. I do not love the pick-5 ending in the Belmont, maybe the pick 3 starting with the Belmont is best. I love the longshots 4, 5, and 6 in the last race, and maybe someone can beat Todd/Chad in the second leg make it.

1, 2, 3, 4, 10 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 2, 4. 5, 6, 10 = $63 for $.50

I made a small investment with a medium size partnership operation called Pewter Stable. All the horses are trained by Kate DeMasi. I have bet on her horses successfully many times when she ships to New York. She has won over 1000 races, mainly in Pennsylvania.

I noticed on their website they had a small percentage available in a horse they bought at the early Ocala sale. They also bought 2 at the June Ocala sale that are still available for partnerships, a Munnings and a Cinco Charlie.

I now own 2.5% of a Super Saver filly out of a young Tapit mare. There is plenty of pedigree under the second dam. The dam only raced 8 times for Fox Hill, and eventually broke her maiden with an 80 Equibase number. Solid by not spectacular. The dam (Ballad) sold for $260,000 as a yearling. The 2-yr old filly worked an average 10.1 at Ocala, and sold for only $25,000. Super Saver has been shipped to Turkey, so his offspring are not in high demand.

It will be interesting to watch Song Saver develop. Lot’s or horses change hands in the $25,000 price range at the sales. This will be good experience. Pewter does not “mark up’ their horses. So this could be a very efficient to invest in horses. Two simple phone calls and all the paperwork got done.

If you love horse racing, you have to cheer for the Kate DeMasi’s of the sport. They seldom get the best horses, but they still win plenty of races. I bet I will learn a lot by owning 2.5% of Song Saver. I look forward to working with these folks.

One of my favorite partnership groups to watch is Donegal Racing. They approach things a little differently they buy a group of horses and you must invest in the whole group, not an individual horse. Interesting to note is that they seem to invest only in yearlings, and avoid the 2-yr old sales. It is always interesting to look at there portfolio. This is something investment manager do every day, look at the portfolio of competitors for ideas.

My favorite idea in this years group is Potato Candy – Candy Ride out of a Dynaformer mare. They have 2 Honor Code’s, a Mineshaft, and an Exaggerator. They paid between $250,000 and $65,000 at the yearling sales. Let’s watch how there young horse do.

Ironhorse Racing is a group that do not know much about, but they bought an interesting Tapiture at the Ocala sale. Hip #176 has a little to much sprinter on the dam side for my taste (Coranado’s Quest), but they tell an interesting story about the horse’s runout in the work. They were offering 5% for $4,000, but are already sold out. I will try towatch them more carefully.

Zilla Racing Stables bought an interesting Frosted at the sales, but do not seem to be offering anything at their website.

Ten Strike is not offering anything on the interesting Brody’s Cause they bought.

Bona Venture Stable has not put anything of their website about their Vancouver purchase.

Pocket Aces is another group I do not know much about. They have inexpensive share available by Mshawish and Will Take Charge.

Wasabi Ventures Stable is another group I know nothing about. They seem to be offering a “club approach” as is the Churchill Downs Racing Club.

Myracehorse.com bought two nice horses at the Ocala sale. They now seem to be offering “micro-shares” or .01% for as little as $180. The approach seems more for fun than a serious investment. On a slow day I will try to learn more. They do own decent horses.

Ownerview.com lists 64 different horse racing syndicates. Eventually I will try to look at them all. The big guys do their job very well. They are professional and easy to work with. But the little guys deserve a chance. For 20 years I sold independent investment research and competed against Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch every day.

Blinkers On Racing Stable, Bourbon Lane Stable, Brilliant Racing, Centennial Farms, Country Life, and Crown’s Way are first on my list to investigate.

The under tack show is only 8 days away. I want to build a list of about 20 horses that I am interested in. Maybe I will focus on just 3 price ranges, under $100,000, under $50,000 and under $25,000.

The approach will be the same. I am looking for horses I would expect to work in the bottom quintile, but then if they have an average work, I will use that as my weird definition of talent. Again I will also lean toward sires I think are “undervalued”

The seems to be a much wider dispersion of quality on the female side, many more top producing dams, but many more first foals.

Not that many great ideas. Not as many creative idea, and not as much turf. I like the idea a focus on 3 ideas even better.

Top Ideas

1. #5 Frosted – very good Pleasant tap mare, might be too expensive
2. #63 Violence – Thunder Gulch/ Strawberry Road dam
3. #41 Tourist – solid producing dam
4. #84 Creative Cause – distance running Kitten’s Joy family
5. #140 Carpe Diem – top producing distance dam, 5/13 foal
6. #160 Vancouver – Pulpit dam, runner, producer
7. #161 Ironicus – decent producing Tiznow mare 4/26 foal
8. #255 Fed Biz – Dynaformer, stakes winner
9. #257 Brody’s Cause – long distance
10. #351 Brody’s Cause – Pleasant Tap dam, 4/20
11. #356 Competitive Edge – long distance dam
12. #374 Anchor Down – route pedigree
13. #375 Wicked Strong – consider
14. #388 Noble Mission – nice pedigree, 5/26 foal
15. #409 Super Saver – solid mare
16. #415 Bayern – Lemon Drop
17. #482 Liam’s Map – Lemon Drop
18. #537 Exaggerator – distance
19. #552 Dialed In – ok

Weaker Ideas

1. #11 Orb – ok Orb
2. #33 Effinex – Green Dancer 2nd dam
3. #53 Normandy Invasion – interesting dam
4. #65 Anchor Down – well bred
5. #76 Golden Lad – little known M de O sire
6. #73 Maclean’s Music – strange dam
7. #128 Jump Start – sire ??? not sure
8. #103 Hard Spun – marathon dam ??
9. #174 Mshawish – solid dam
10. #178 Street Sense – ok at a price
11. #202 Imaging – MD bred
12. #208 Tiznow – distance pedigree
13. #228 Bodemsister – low profile 5/31
14. #262 Mineshaft – Curlin dam
15. #282 Liam’s Map – solid dam
16. #298 Seville – unusual sire
17. #335 Fast Anna – consider
18. #359 Twirling Candy – solid dam
19. #370 Perfect Soul – turf ?
20. #377 Air Force One – ok pedigree
21. #381 Bodemeister – low profile
22. #393 Morning Line – investigate sire
23. #399 Dialed in – great dam
24. #400 Macleans Music – ok
25. #428 Speightster -ok
26. #425 Texas Red – onteresting
27. #440 Vancouver – solid
28. #466 Declaration of War – maybe
29. #538 Nyquist – distance
30. #561 Speightster – distance

I contacted both of the big partnership groups this week, and both got back to me very promptly. I have always wanted to keep track of both groups over a couple years. Rather than measure the overall results (ownerview.com does that), I wanted to keep track how I would do if I could actually buy into one of their horses.

In practice I think both sell out their new 2-yr old partnerships very quickly to existing partners. So if you want to invest with them you have to act quickly.

To me it is all about judging the people and the process, not trying to judge results over any short time period. 30 years in the investment business taught me that even results over a 5 year time period can be very misleading. So I start this informal competition not to compare their results down to the last dollar, but rather as a fun way of keeping track of their results. I will probably invest with both of them over the next few years, and the results of this informal race will have no bearing on that decision.

Both have excellent websites, and I highly recommend race fan go there an chose their favorites.

I think I will pick 6 horses from each in the order I would select them if they were available. I will picks the ones I like the best.

West Point

1. Magnificent – I am a big fan of Frosted and the dam’s breeding ($250,000 yearling)
2. Printers Row – a Street Sense filly from the early Ocala sale ($170,000)
3. Warn – Declaration of War, exactly the type of turf horse I would like to own ($140,000 yearling)
4. A Longlongtimeago – Maclean’s Music is my favorite sire ($125,000 yearling)
5. Arabian Prince – Mshawish colt could be turf or dirt ($235,000 yearling)
6. Silver Streak – Ironicus is an interesting new sire ($45,000 at the OBS sale)

Eclipse

1. Aviano – Medaglia de Oro – a very pricey yearling ($775,000), maybe not a realistic price, but lets watch him
2. Distancing – Anchor Down filly by an interesting new sire ($60,000 at the early OBS)
3. Nurturing – Violence filly was on my top 12 list for Ocala ($225,000)
4. Duchess of Shire – Flintshire filly, I love the Euro pedigree ($47,000 in OBS)
5. Exact – Competitive Edge sprinter that Eclipse had a few shares left in ($82,000 at OBS)
6. Honorable – an inexpensive Constitution yearling ($60,000)

There seem to be many similarities between picking stocks and picking horses, so I will from time to time tell some investing stories.

I met a finance professor, Bob, that grew up in the house next to Warren Buffett in Omaha. The told the following story:

When Bob was 12 he played softball with Buffett’s son. They would go do down in Mr. Buffett’s basement early in the morning to get the equipment. Mr. Buffett would be sitting in a recliner in his non-air conditioned basement with a four foot stack of annual reports. When they dropped off the equipment that night, the stack was gone.

Buffett addressed Bob’s investing class at Creighton 20 years later. The first question was:

I want to be an analyst like you Mr. Buffett , how should I get started?

Mr. Buffett said:

There are about 5000 public companies in the U.S, start with the A’s

The clear implication from his extended answer was you have to look at them all.

This is good advice in picking stocks, I think it applies to horses as well.

Heeding Mr. Buffett’s advice I started the Fasig-Tipton’s Timonium sales catalog by looking at Hip #1 and going from there. For Ocala, I had started with short list of sires I liked, but now I will tackle the “whole enchilada”.

Just when you think you are beginning to understand the horse sale business, you find another level of complexity.

By diving into analyzing the horses available in Ocala, I really missed the big question.

Should you be looking at any of the 2-yr old in training sales at all, or should you only be focused on the yearling sales?

My starting point was looking at the West Point website. They added the 3 that they just bought, but there staring back at me were 20 other magnificent 2-yr olds. Best I could tell, 18 of them had been purchased at yearling sales (I guess either Saratoga or Keeneland), 2 more came from the March Ocala training sale.

At first the scoreboard looks like 18 to 5 yearling vs 2-yr old, lets assume West Point adds two more at the Timonium sale, that would make the simple score 18 to 7.

75% yearling. — 25% 2-yr old

But then you at the big dollars paid in the yearling sale and you see the answer is really

95% yearling. — 5% 2 yr-ols. in dollar terms

West Point’s answer to the big question is clear – Focus on the yearlings

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Let’s look at it another way.

There were 23 Frosted’s in the Ocala catalog, 8 were withdrawn before working, 3 were sold but RNAed (avg $120,000), and 12 sold for about $100,000 each (with a range of $185,000 to $9,000). Remember the the Ruler of Dubai and I liked the same one for $65,000.

Of the 15 that worked, 3 were fast, 6 were average, and 6 were slow. About the same distribution as all the other horses.

It would be easy to conclude that Frosted had a poor Ocala sale. Of the 9 that appeared to have been pinhooked 2 made a $100,000 profit, 3 made a small profit, 2 broke even, and 2 had substantial losses, and in total the 9 essentially broke even. The pinhookers could not have been happy.

Does that mean Frosted is in trouble? No it does not.

There were 35 Frosted’s that sold at yearling sales for over $200,000, only 2 of those were brought to the Ocala sale. The rest remain in the barns of some very good owners. What you saw at Ocala was only a glimpse of the bottom end of the Frosted market. It very well might mean absolutely nothing.

West Point bought a Frosted for $250,000. He was appropriately named Magnificent. He is now my favorite for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He is out of and unraced Pleasant Tap mare that has already produced a $700,000 winner. As well bred as Magnificent is, West Point have several other that are even better. Just go and look at the website. It looks like the New York Yankees “Murder’s Row”, and the horses from the Ocala sale look like at best the Toledo Mudhens.

OK, that looks easy, focus on the yearlings. Except for one thing, when you look at the prices paid for the well bred yearlings the picture becomes very cloudy again.

What is left is a very difficult puzzle. The seemingly bargain prices 2-yr olds in training, or the pricey yearlings.

Every MSW and allowance/stakes race I watch for the rest of my life will be a competition between the two ideas. I knew that this competition existed, I just never really focused on it. I was trying to pick winners, but if you are in the horse buying business every non-claiming race has a meaning other than picking the winner. Of course, every claiming race is a stark reminder of what NOT to do.

The world just got even more complicated, that’s good

Let’s pick one winner and one loser from the sale.

Loser first. It would be easy to pick of Mr Durant for his $450,000 Runhappy buy (few others sold well), but that would be too easy

Instead I will go with #648. Cromwell Bloodstock bought an Algorithms for $120,000 or almost 25x the stud fee for a horse that worked a below average 21.3. The dam is a Sunland/Albuquerque sprinter of modest distinction. Maybe this is the best looking horse on the planet, but 25x for a slow work?

And the winner is?

#1147 a Noble Mission purchased by Ronald Spatz for $25,000 or 1.25x the stud fee. This guy worked as sold 21.1 despite being a April 29th foal. The dam by Lemon Drop Kid has produced three very solid horses in 3 tries. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel, and his son won the Travers last year.

I was out bid for #529 and forgot to look at my second choice for Noble Mission. If I had one “do over”, it would be this horse. I have cashed some nice bets on Mr. Spatz in the last few years. I will be watching for this colt.

Honorable mention to:

#493 a Street Sense that worked 20.3 and went for $80,000 to Richard Vega

#475 a Not This Time that worked a nice 21.0, yet only sold for $75,000 to Jason Cline

Although none of these is as good as the Di Paola’s $20,000 Bodemeister out of very solid Kitten’s Joy mare and also worked 21.0. This was really the buy of the sale, but I cannot nominate my own purchases.

I have looked at a lot of dams in the past few weeks. I have an intuition for what I like to see, but I thought I would try to measure it. This is just a rough draft, but you to start somewhere. The system has 100 available points.

1. 30 points for dam’s racing ability – 30 G2 winner, 25 small Stakes, 20 for 2 allowance wins, 15 an allowance win, 12 a MSW win, 7 a good MC win, 5 any win, 1 for running. Very roughly 30 for. a 110, 20 for 100, 15 for 90, 10 for 80, 5 for 75, obviously Beyers would be better, but Equibase is all we have.
2. 20 points for best 4 children, 5 points for each – 5 for stakes winner, 4 for $200,000+, 3 for $100,000+, 2 for $50,000+, I for a winner
3. 20 points for the quality of the 2nd dam – 10 stakes winner, 5 for $100,000+, 2 for a winner, then 3 points for each of her best 3 children , 3 points for stakes, 2 for $100,000 plus, 1 for any winner, and 1 point for any 4th winner
4. 5 points for quality of the 3rd dam – 5 for stakes, 3 for $100,000+. 1 for a winner
5. 5 points for stamina influence of the dam (qualitative)
6. 5 points for either a decent auction price for the dam as a yearling or 2 yr old, or being from a good trainer or owner (kind of a class measure)
7. 5 points for being bred to quality sires, 1 point for each instance
8. 10 points for the quality the dam sire – 10 point for i.e. Empire Maker , 5 points for i.e. More Than Ready, 2 points for Service Stripe (obviously a judgement call)

1. 55+ is great or A
2. 45+ is above average or B
3. 40 is average or C
4. 35 is barely passing or D
5. 25 is failing

This system emphasizes running ability, and favors older mares who have produced. Some might not like 20 points for the 2nd dam, but the unraced mares have to get points somewhere or they will automatic toss outs.

This is my personal approach. Most would toss out #5 above and replace it with some measure of precocity like 2 yr old wins.

How would you divide up 100 points? Maybe 50 for running ability? or 50 for production? or 50 points for some measure of precocity? and not so much focus on pedigree and the extended family.

What else would you give points for? Obviously looks and appearance is important, but we cannot measure that.

Perhaps all of this means absolutely nothing and 10.0 is great, 10.1 is ok, and 10.2 means stay away. That would make things easier.

I also want to keep track of several horses that did not make my final list:

1. #34 Jess’s Dream – might not be completely crazy
2. #460 Midshipman – Matt Scherra bought an interesting one
3. #1109 Super Saver – I have been watching Jeremiah O’Dwyer
4. #1111 Exaggerator – the best one at the sale
5. #928 Shackleford – I like sires that have been shipped overseas
6. #462 Vancouver – the best one at the sale, Bona Ventures bought it
7. #1062 Commissioner – this was a cheap one
8. #507 Lea – not a popular sire
9. #884 Effinex – deceased sires are not popular either
10. #2 – Not This Time – If I want to be part of the Not This Time craze, I could call West Point
11. #291 Brody’s Cause – Ten Strike bought this for $35,000
12. #225 Upstart – this one worked slow 33.4
13. #821 Orb – another unpopular sire
14. #653 Declaration of War – 2nd tier turf sire?
15. #684 Air Force Blue – a cheap one to watch, good pedigree

It is quite possible that my strategy of breading a stamina sire to a stamina mare, and then hoping for a slow workout is completely unworkable at these sales. So I spent the morning looking at some sires I considered “toss outs” when I looked through the catalog. I want to see what other folks are trying at the opposite end of the spectrum.

My interest started when I watched the bidding for a Speightster colt with a fast 20.4 work go over $1,000,000. That’s 100x the stud fee for those keeping score. This was hip #1312. Let’s watch that one, but then asked what would the value guy have bought. I want to follow #658 a Speightster colt that worked 20.0 but sold for only $55,000 to a guy named Chris Howard. It was consigned by Coastal Equine, which had a few horses I liked.

That led me to think about the Kantharos #1175 that sold for $500,000. That led me to hip #1139 which was a Kantharos with a 10.1 that sold for $30,000 to a group called Brilliant Racing. They are a small partnership operation I was was not aware of. They have a slightly different approach to partnerships. I sent them an e-mail to learn more. I still have a lot to learn about all the players in this game.

I will also keep an eye on a Distorted Humor #347 that Brilliant bought. This is another sire I want to learn more about.

Another sire I want to watch is Khozan. He had a brief career, like Maclean’s Music, so he might be overlooked. The premium price Khozan was #1045 for $150,000. The value Khozan was #951. JD Farms bought this one for $33,00, and they also bought one of my top 20 horses.

Outwork is a son of Uncle Mo that did not sell well. Interestingly enough the only horse Drawing Away Stable bought at this sale #824. Let’s watch.

Nyquist was another poor seller. My old friend Ernie Kuehne (of the golfing Kuehne’s) bought one for $60,000. Let’s watch.

Munnings is a sire I do not really care for, but let’s learn. West Point #63 and Little Red Feather #495 each bought one for big prices. Then I noticed that Pewter Stable also bought one for only $50,000 or only 1.6x the stud fee. That led me to the Pewter Stables website where they have some interesting information. More on that later.

Pewter lead me to Cinco Charlie. I need to learn more.

Just as I was done summarizing this sale, I got the email telling me the catalog is now available for the July sale.

This is a whole new group of 1000 two year olds. i thought it might contain horses withdrawn from this first sale, but seems to be a whole new group. It looks like this group might be a little cheaper. Maybe I should have waited, or maybe I am going crazy. The work of a bloodstock agent is never done,

1. Q’s Blueprint – Maclean’s Music colt is a perfect example of my strategy
2. Q’s Model – Point of Entry filly bred to go 1 1/2 miles
3. Q’s Contender – Bayern colt bought by Wells Bayou’s owner
4. Q’s Canadian – Bodemeister colt that will run at Woodbine
5. Q’s Mistake – Street Sense colt bought for .3x the stud fee
6. Q’s Bargain – Wicked Strong colt for a bargain price
7. Q’s Eclipse – Violence filly that will be in an Eclipse partnership
8. Q’s Kellar – Ironicus filly from one of Marc Keller’s mares
9. Q’s Chance – Mshawish filly from an high risk unraced mare
10. Q’s El Prado – Summer Front filly with interesting bloodlines
11. Q’s Music – Maclean’s Music filly could be my first broodmare
12. Q’s Fancy – Malibu Moon colt owned by racing royalty
13. Q’s Starship – Carpe Diem colt bred to go long
14. Q’s Frosty – A Frosted colt only me and the Ruler of Dubai could love
15. Q’s Improver – Dialed In colt from an improving sire
16. Q’s Contest – Tapiture filly vs. my real life Dare to Dream Tapiture filly
17. Q’s Genius – Tourist colt owned by my favorite owner Mr. Mancari
18. Q’s Rose – Tourist filly out of a “one hit wonder” mare
19. Q’s Pedigree – Liam’s Map colt with a ton of pedigree
20. Q’s Alone – We Miss Artie colt on the Derby trail all alone

A lot of horse buying seems to be about “fashion”. You want to buy what the other “cool kids” are buying. A counter strategy to this might be to look for obscure stallions. Few could be more obscure than We Miss Artie. He only had 6 yearlings sell last year. We Miss Artie is the son of Artie Schiller and a nice Fusaichi Pegasus mare.

Hip #351 was the only We Miss Artie in the sale. He came alone, without any brothers or sisters. The dam was was a very solid allowance horse at Woodbine running a 104. The 2nd dam was by Dynaformer. The dam has also produced a graded stakes winner.

The work was a very solid 21.1 for an April 19th foal. Maybe paying $30,000 or 6x for him was a bit much, but he all alone and someone had to be his friend.

The real world buyer was Sterling Racing (no not Donald Sterling, I did check). They have 23 wins in 163 tries. I am glad they gave this colt a good home.

His real is already given as Artie on My Mind, but we will call him:

Quixote’s Alone

at least until he hits the track.

Another sire I liked, but was sure would be too expensive was Liam’s Map. Maybe Arrogate would have been the best son of Unbridled Song, but that job wil have to stay with Liam’s Map. His $35,000 fee meant I had to think creatively.

Hip #339 was a Liam’s Map out of an unraced mare that has only one other foal. The second dam was Fair Grounds Oak’s winner Real Cozzy. Real Cozzy then finished second in the Mother Goose and Kentucky Oaks. Real Cozzy’s second dam produced Real Quiet. So what you have here is a ton of pedigree, and no proven racing ability.

This horse was RNAed for $72,000 as a yearling. The pinhooker gambled poorly because the work was a poor 21.4, and the bidding stopped at $25,000.

Buying a horse with this much pedigree at a yearling sale is nearly impossible, but one bad work and all is lost. I am not sure I would want to buy a portfolio of horses like this, but it was the only way I could afford a Liam’s Map.

Let’s call her:

Quixote’s Pedigree

Or maybe Tourist will do better on the dirt, lets give it a try.

#1216 was a Tourist by a Street Sense mare named Jor Jah. She only ran once, but she ran a 93 winning a MSW at Aqueduct.

Many years ago my friends father, Biogio, gave a good deal on a used car to the old NY trainer Kay Jensen. Jensen was so happy with the car he gave Biogio a mare who only ran one race, but won at Aqueduct. My friends bred that mare a few times and produced a filly named Biogio’s Rose (Rose was their mother). Biogio Rose’s went on two win two graded stakes and nearly $1,000,000. All out a mare that raced once and won. Crazy things happen in racing and breeding

When I studied Jor Jah I immediately thought of Fois Gras. Maybe lighting can strike twice.

The work was slow 10.3, but the horse only cost $6,000

In honor of my friends nice racehorse let’s call her:

Quixote’s Rose

Tourist was another “must” have sire for this year. Kentucky breeders never cared for Tiznow, and I am sure they like his son even less. Bill Mott has confused about this horse. First he nearly win a G1 turf race at 1 1/4, but then he ends up running a dirt mile under 1:31.2. I love confusion, this guy is confusing. I think he will be better as a turf sire.

Hip #1217 was a Tourist, out of a Pulpit mare named Joyance. Joyance never won, but ran a speed fig of 93 at Santa Anita. Better yet she produced a very solid turf horse name Adonis Creed. I notice I have more confidence in my choices when I have actually see the horse run. That is exactly what I wanted, to add some more turf pedigree to Tourist.

Tourist did not win until he was 3. Why should you expect a fast work from Tourist bred to a Pulpit mare. The foal was born 4/11. Not surprisingly the work was a slow 10.3, which allowed me to steal this horse for $17,000, or just over 2x the stud fee.

The real world buyer was none other than Frank Mancari, the car dealer turned horse owner that also bought my Mclean’s Music filly. Maybe Mr. Mancari is crazy, or perhaps he has a spy in Dallas that is reading my thoughts. Right now, before any of these horse run I promote Mr. Mancari to the rank of genius, and my long shot prediction to win next year’s Eclipse Award for top owner.

Let’s call the horse:

Quixote’s Genius

Tapiture was a sire I was in liked after studying Dialed In. The guys at Darby Dan seem to be doing some creative thinking about who should be a sire. Tapiture’s career was solid, but unexciting. His early results have been interesting. For $10,000 he is worth a try. Now all we have to do is choose the right mommy.

Hip #1195 was by Tapiture out of a unusual mare Its’s Heidi’s Dance. IHD looks like a disaster with only the line “placed at 3 and 4”. But oh what places they were. She ran a 103 and then a 95 Equibase speed figure in MSW mile turf races at San Anita. Of course she did not get to races until November of her 3 year old year.

Her pedigree is very distance oriented, the dam is by Green Dancer, and the second dam has British distance pedigree. You might call this experimental pedigree at best, but IHD was already produced a graded stakes winner by the undistinguished Hansen. In all IHD has a fantastic 7 winners from 9 of racing age.

As a great grand daughter of AP Indy, and out of a Green Dancer mare it is amazing that this filly is even attending a 2 yr old in training sale, but her work was a solidly average 21.2.

The Tapiture filly I own 2% of is out of a nice race horse, but she never ran a number better than 85. Does that matter, who knows? The sire of my horses dam, was Service Stripe who won some small stakes in Detroit (yes the old track in Detroit). Green Dancer won a Classic race in France, and was the son of British Triple Crown winner Nijinsky.

My filly worked slightly faster at 21.1.

Better yet my imaginary purchase cost only $17,000, less than 2x, while Dare to Dream spent $50,000

Of course the Dare to Dream could look at each filly in person, and see the vet records, and measure the stride length. All I can do is read a sheet of paper.

In the real world the buyer was Mike Vitello, who has won 3 races in his lifetime as an owner at Tampa Bay. The Dare to Dream guys have won 297 more races at meaningful race tracks.

I really hope the D to D guys picked the right Tapiture. That is why I invested with them. Over thirty years ago my first boss called me “an arrogant son of a bitch” because I would not listen to Wall Street analysts. I officially declare a contest to find the better Tapiture filly. My odds are best 10-1 to win. That is why they hold horse races and trade stocks every day. People work hard, do the research. and have different opinions.

Let’s call #1195:

Quixote’s Contest

Let’s hope they duel down the stretch at next May’s Oaks.

Dialed In is kind of a unique sire to me. Usually I am looking at sires were recent results are bad, so they are undervalued, i.e. Bayern or Carpe Diem. Dialed In is the reverse, his results have been good and getting better. His stud fee was increased to $20,000 and the story is he has been attracting better mares. Dialed In is a son of Mineshaft, and a grandson of AP Indy. He was Nick Zito’s last good horse. I wanted to try one improving stallion.

#1019 was a Dialed In out of frightfully slow mare. Fancier never ran better than 75 at Delta Downs. I would actually prefer an unraced mare to one that was this slow. However the is bunch of pedigree. Bernstein (son of Storm Cat) is a decent broodmare sire, I love the Fu Peg as the 2nd dam’s sire. I especially love all the European distance pedigree under the 3rd dam. So a bad runner, but a solid pedigree, lets call this dam marginally average.

Mix in a fast work 21.0 for an April 18th foal, and I am willing to go to 4x for sure. The hammer actually fell at $47,000, or only 2.3x. Call me a happy camper with that price.

Peter Miller agreed, and was the buyer in the real world for one of his owners. This horse might not be that exciting, but he is a very solid value.

Let’s call him:

Quixote’s Improver

I am sorry, but I am a financial guy so I will keep coming back to this question.

How much should I pay for a horse?

I took a sample of 20 sires and tried to get a balance of expensive and cheap. The sample might be little bit on the high side. That gave me 125 of the 530 or so sold.

From this I found:

1. about 20% have fast works, either 9.4 or 10, or 21.0 or less
2. about 30 have average works of 10.1 or, or 21.1 and 21.2
3. about 50% have slow works either 10.2 and higher, or 21.3 or higher

Then I calculated the price/current stud fee for each. Here is what I found

1. for fast works the median multiple was 6x and the average a little higher
2. for average works the median multiple was 4x, but there many at 2x and 6x
3. for slow works the median was 2x or less, but still 10% were at 4x or more

For each category I dismissed about 10% of the sample as clear “problem” horses. I did not count a horse that worked 9.4 but sold for 1x, or one that worked 21.2 but sold for .3x.

Next I want to see if I can explain the different in price dam’s pedigree or running ability.

These numbers are rough, but they are a starting point for any discussion. The multiples are lower for $50,000 sires and higher for $5,000 sires.

The partnerships were active buyers at the Ocala sale.

In addition to Dare to Dream’s two purchases, there were:

1. Eclipse bought 6 horses including a $200,000 California Chrome, and a $47,000 Flintshsire , and a $125,000 Violence.
2. West Point bought 3, including a $45,000 Ironicus, and a $200,000 Not This Time
3. Ten Strike bought a $35,000 Brody’s Cause
4. Drawing Away bought an Outwork for $29,000
5. Ironhorse bought a Tapiture for $80,000
6. Ken McPeek bought 6, some of which might go to Magdelena Partners
7. Myracehorse.com bought 2, including a $180,000 Twirling Candy
8. Zilla Racing stables bought 2 including a $85,000 Frosted
9. Pewter Stable bought 3 for under $50,000
10. Pocket Aces bought 1
11. Bradley Thoroughbred bought 3 which might be partnerships
12. Little Red Feather bought a Munnings for $175,000
13. Brilliant Racing bought 2 for $130,000 in total.
14. Bona Ventures bought 1 for $50,000 a Vancouver

Let’s go back to the real world for a moment. I thought this sale was a good place to find value given the general economic uncertainty. So I bought 2% of two horse purchased by Dare to Dream Stables.

Dare to Dream is run by two brothers, Michael and Allen Faber. They have been doing this for over 20 years and have won 300 races and 30 stakes. Their win rate is 19% and 48% ITM. More importantly, they slow talking nice guys that really love the sport of horse racing. Some of the other partnerships are a little “sales oriented” for my taste, Allen and Mke are not. The billing is simple, and the communication is outstanding.

Go here for more info:

Daretodreamstable.com

Most importantly they seem to have good taste in lower the medium priced horses. They bought Embolden last year for $95,000 at this sale and he has already earned $181,000.

I now own 2% of hip #218 and #456

#456 is already named Quick Tempo. He will go to the barn of Chris Davis at Churchill

Tapizar – out of Sing Dixie Sing – by Dixie Union

Tapizar won the Breeders Cup mile at 4, and is the sire of Monomoy Girl. He stands for $10,000 at Gainsway.

Quick Tempo worked a fast 9.4 at Ocala. They paid $75,000 or 7.5 x the stud fee, which is very reasonable given the fast work and reasonable pedigree.

At first glance the mare was a little too sprint oriented for my liking, but Dixie Union won at 1 1/16 and his offspring, like that of his father Dixieland Band, “can be any kind of horse”. The second dam is Mineshaft (a son of AP Indy). The third dam is the multiple graded stakes winner routing Megans Bluff and the 4th dam is by Cozzene. So there is plenty of route pedigree in the extended female family.

The breeding is also similar to Monomoy Girl, who is out of a sprint oriented Henny Hughes mare.

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#218 is a filly already named Blond on Tap. She will go to Chris Davis.

Tapiture – out of Okie Blonde by Service Stripe (a son of Deputy Minister)

Okie Blonde worked a nice 21.1 and was purchased $50,000 or 5x the fee. Several other Tapiture’s sold in that price range.

Tapiture is the son of Tapit and the grandson of AP Indy. He won the West Virgina Derby G2 at 9 furlongs and was second in the Breeders Cup Mile to Goldencents.

The mare was a useful Oklahoma bred that won 6 of 30 races mostly is routes. She finished second in the Oklahoma Distaff, and ran a top Equibase figure of 88.

Service Stripe was an important Oklahoma sire for many years, and produced lots of routers. The third dam produced multiple graded stakes winning Bien Nicole.

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Both of these horses will be fun to watch.

There were six horses that sold at the Ocala sale that went beyond my price point. It will be interesting to watch them going forward.

1. #529 – Noble Mission -Striking Style – $90 – Larry Hirsch
2. #274 – Temple City – Polish Flower – $40 – Three Diamonds
3. #1276 – Tonalist – Ash Zee – $130 – Sean Flanagan (cribber)
4. #259 – Not This Time – Pick and Pray – $75 – de burgh Equine
5. #1313 – Carpe Diem – Seeking Abel – $100 – EQB Miller agent
6. #225 – Upstart – Open Agenda – $75. – Lauren Carlisle

Then there were three that did attain the reserve:

1. #762 – Sky Mesa – Ballynoe – $47 – Coastal Equine
2. $222 – Flintshire – One on Tap – $42 – Fast Horses
3. $348 – Creative Cause – Reflect and Dream – $47 – Julie Davis

And those that were withdrawn:

1. #1085 – Orb – Gold Bud – All in Line Stable (worked in 10.2)
2. #340 – Social Inclusion – Rebirther – Fast Horses
3. #389 – Dialed In – Sallys Song – Arindel
4. #262 – Palice Malice – Pilmaya – Nial Brennan

I thought Frosted would be the star of the show. His yearlings sold for a median of $180,000 last year. But in this sale only two sold for $180,000, and many sold for much less. It might be called a disaster. Perhaps all the great Frosted’s were sold at the yearling sale, and the good ones will be raced by their buyers, and not pinhooked. We will see.

The one that attacted my attention was hip #944. The dam was a solid G3 placed runner that produced two $200,000 winners. The dam was by Maria’s Mon, and the 2nd dam had distance running Irish pedigree. A slow work was expected, but actual result was an ok 10.1. I thought this colt would certainly sell for $200,000, but the bidding stopped at $65,000 or just 1.5x the stud fee.

The real world winning bidder was none other than Alrashid Stables. I think that is the guys from Godolphin, perhaps the best bloodstock operation in the world. I am still a rank amateur, I picked horses that sold to car dealers and obscured Canadian trainers, but I also picked a horse bought by the Supreme Leader of Dubai.

I guess my approach to picking horses is most similar to the Godolphin approach. You do. not see them buying too many sprinters either. I hope this horse runs in the US, if not hip #1040 is my backup.

Let’s call this one:

Quixote’s Frosty

Carpe Diem was the first sire that I decided was a “must have”. He had a decent but brief racing career, but more importantly he was so good looking as a 2-year old that Stonestreet paid $1,600,000 for him. His offspring’s racing results have not been great, so he “out of favor”. There were 20 in the sale

There was one hip that jumped off the page. #716. The dam was a G2 winner out of an Arch mare. The mare also producer 3 $100,000 winners from her first 4 foals. The mare ran 10 Equibase speed figures over 100, including a 115.

What more could you ask for? Oops I forgot to tell you one thing. The mare did not break her maiden until she was 4, but then became a great race horse. I might have expected this colt to work in 12.2, but he went a slow 10.2. Just stare at this pedigree and race record and you will realize that all folks care about is precocity.

I would pay 10x for this horse if he had worked 10.1, for a 10.2 I thought I would pay at least 5x, yet hammer fell at $40,000, or just 2.66x

The real world buyer was a guy even more crazy than me. Laurence Leavy is a lawyer known as Marlins Man for his crazy antics at baseball game, but he also the owner of Starship Stables (yes he is a Star Trek fan). Starship has won over 250 races and $5,000,000 in purses. Mr. Leavy might be crazy like a fox.

In Mr Leavy’s honor lets call him:

Quixote’s Starship

I wanted to buy one fancy horse. Not because I plan to do so next year, but just to compare with my collection of value horses. The prices at the high end of the market seemed quite fair, and many older stallions were not attracting much attention.

Malibu Moon is the outstanding son of AP Indy that stands for $60,000. He had 20 horses in the sale. One sold for $500,000, we paid $200,000, not one more sold for over $100,000. Did Malibu Moon sudden stop producing good horses, or were the buyers just bored.

Fusaichi Pegasus was the best looking race horse I ever saw, he did not become a great sire, but he has been a solid broodmare sire.

Hip #9721 was a Malibu Moon out of an unraced Fu Peg mare, but there was ton of Black Type under the second dam. The work was an average 21.2, so the price was only 3.5x the stud fee.

This might be dangerous if this horse was bought by a stock swindler from Hoboken, New Jersey, but instead the a member of racing royalty Martin Wygod appears to be the buyer. Mr. Wygod has one over $20,000,000 in purses.

Just for fun let’s see how the beautiful people live. What would it be like to own a fancy horse? How difficult will it be to drop him into $20,000 claimer at Los Alamitos. Let’s hope that does not happen, but if it does it will be educational.

Lets all him:

Quixote’s Fancy

I had to have one more Mclean’s Music. I wanted a filly so I can run the babies for the next 20 years. Can you say delusions of grandeur?

#334 was a MM filly. The dam was by Arch out and AP Indy mare, once again pure stamina. The dam had a brief 3 race career, but did win a MSW. The second dam was a G3 winner and produced a stakes winner. Even with all that distance pedigree, the work was an outstanding 21.0.

That kind of work comes at a cost. The filly went for $110,000 or 5.5x the stud fee.

In the real world the buyer was Ralph Evans, who ran campaigned Upstart to a great career.

I am running out of cute names, let’s call her:

Quixote’s Music

El Prado was the father of both Medaglia de Oro and Kitten’s Joy. Summer Front is an interesting new sire that combines War Front with an El Prado mare. I needed to try one. The success of Ete Indien made him a kind of a hot sire, but luckily Ete Indien ran bad the week before the sale. The luster was gone.

#997 was a Summer Front filly by and Empire Maker mare. Empress of Gold ran some fast figs, including a 104, for the old Brushwood Stables. She also produced a nice $200,000 winner. The 2nd dam is by stamina influence Seeking the Gold, and has many graded stakes relatives. Mix all that together with a horse that worked an average 21.2 and you get a solid value

The filly sold for only $35,000 or 3.5x the stud fee. Three other Summer Fronts sold for over $130,000.

The real world buyer was Shea D Boys Stable, that has won 10 of 29 races. They have some idea what they are doing.

We will call he:

Quixote’s El Prado

I wanted to buy at least one offspring of the new sire Mshawish. The son of Medaglia de Oro ran well on turf and dirt. With Thunder Gulch of the dam side of the pedigree it just screams distance and stamina. There were 5 that sold at the sale. Football’s Bill Parcells bought the most expensive one for $120,000

I chose to take a chance here with an unraced dam, that only has one other foal of racing age. This is a high risk play that I think is best avoided. In this case there was so much fancy long distance pedigree under the second dam I just could not pass it up. Only 3 of the 20 dams of my purchases were unraced. When you look through the pedigrees of many great horses it is interesting to note all the unraced mares that contribute. Maybe they took one bad step training for their first race and never made it too the track. I would think the stud farms would try to weed out the worst of the unraced mares.

In an effort to learn I decided to take a chance on some unraced dams, and this was one. The horse worked a respectable 21.2 for such a distance oriented pedigree. The horse sold for $30,000 or 3x the stud fee. A very reasonable price.

The real world buyer was the mysterious Thorostock LLC which according to Equibase has never started a horse, and has no web presence.

We will call her:

Quixote’s Chance

Ironicus is a first year sire that was a champion miler, but his pedigree suggests he could have been more. His stud fee is only $5,000, so he is a value. West Point bought an Ironicus colt for $50,000 the first day. That gave me a little more confidence.

As I looked through the Ironicus offspring I saw an old friend. The mare of hip #485 was Sotique, a filly trainer by Bobby Ribaudo for Marc Keller. Bob trained my friend’s champion filly. He is one of the nicest and most honest people in racing. He also trained Keller’s multiple G1 winner Grand Courtier. Years ago Keller paid over $200,000 for Sotique at a yearling sale. The horse had a modest career, but was meant for better. #485 worked an ok 10.1, but there is no reason to think this filly will be precocious.

I was hoping to pay only 5x for her, but the West Point purchase kind of set the price, and I chased all the way to $47,000. At nearly 10x the stud fee this was not cheap, If West point had not paid up the day before, I might have stopped earlier, but in the end I am happy. Marc Keller is a smart guy who won over 100 races, I will trust his judgement on the mare of #485.

In the real world the buyer was J D Farms a Florida breeding operation that dispersed many of its horses last year. They might feel if she cannot run she could be a good broodmare.

We will see who got the better Ironicus, either me or West Point.

In honor of Mr. Keller’s racing accomplishments we will call her:

Quixote’s Keller

Quixote Stables made its first mythical claim today. We spent an imaginary $30,000 to claim a horse named Judicial Restraint out of the first race at Belmont. Claiming horses off of Chad Brown is most likely not a great idea. In fact it might be a horrible idea.

This horse is a Tonalist purchased by Seth Klarman out a Keenland yearling sale for $130,000 in September 2018. I knew the dam because her son was hip #66, a Liam’s Map colt I looked at, but then it worked 22.0. The dam of Judicial Restraint is a Mineshaft mare out of a Dynaformer mare. There is a lot of European long distance pedigree is this horse.

In his first and only start Chad put up a strange jockey and the horse trailed the field, went off at 20 to 1, but still ran a Beyer of 60. Today he drew outside and made a much better run. Linda Rice won the race with a nicely bred Bernardini colt that crushed the field. JR tried had in the stretch to get second. He looks like a big lumbering horse that could develop later as many Dynaformer’s do.

Chad put Javier on the horse today, so best guess is that he modestly sound, maybe just not very fast.

In the real world no one actually claimed any horse from this race. Let’s watch to see what Chad does with this guy and also watch what Linda does with the winner, Fried Rice King.

Normally I would prefer to claim from low profile trainers, but this the right horse. I could not find a Tonalist at the sale, so I claimed one. Seth Klarman (the Klar in Klarevich ) is a great investor who bought our investment research for many years. I often like his stock picks (Chenerie and Viasat, for example) but today I had to take his Tonalist away. Claiming is a tough game, it was hard to make the first one from a former customer.

Maybe the better claim was Spirt Animal who stormed home to win a $50,000 claimer on the turf an hour later. This was a nice Lemon Drop Kid colt who had off a 6 months layoff.

Violence was one the sires I was interested in before the sale. I cannot afford Pioneer of the Nile, so why not his son for $25,000. He stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale next to my hero Maclean’s Music. He has been producing top selling yearlings. Maybe this is too expensive for a value guy, but why not try have a look I thought.

My favorite Violence offspring at Ocala was hip #258. This filly is not a complete match with the strategy. This is rather an attempt to buy into a stallion I really like. The dam is Pi Bella. Pi’s dad was Pioneering a full brother to Storm Cat. Pi Bella set new course record for 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Parx. The work for #258 was a solid 21.2 for this girl born April 18th. The main reason for choosing this horse was I did not like the other Violence horses being offered, maybe not the best reason to buy.

I knew this would be an expensive horse, certainly not a value. In the investment business we call this “growth at a reasonable price”, which often means paying too much for something you really like. I added this one to my personal portfolio as a good comparison. I did not burden my partners with this dalliance.

The final price was $125,000 or 5x the stud fee. You pay up when you buy a fast horse.

In the real world this horse was bought by Eclipse Thorooughbred Partners. This group seems to be the successor to Dogwood (the founder of the partnership industry). In 1998 I was lucky to meet Cot Campbell and have a brief conversation with him. If you do not know he was read this:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2019/08/08/cot-campbell-a-true-pioneer.aspx

I guess I will have a chance to buy part of this horse in the real world. I just sent Eclipse an email requesting information.

This filly gets the name:

Quixote’s Eclipse

Wicked Strong was a $6,000 value sire that I had some interest in before the sale. He was not a great at 2, but but then won the Wood Memorial and the Jim Dandy. Then at 4 he got 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a length behind Tonalist. A stamina sire too be sure.

Hip #359 was one my top 12 coming into the sale. The Wicked Strong colt is by a Meadaglia de Oro mare named Riviera Chic who ran solid 96 in a small stake at Kentucky Downs. The second dams sire is stamina source Thunder Gulch. He was consigned by a small pinhooker, Coastal Equine, that also consigned my favorite colt #762.

No one expected this colt to work fast, and he did not at 10.2. That was disappointing, but not below expectations. It met expectations. I thought 2x the stud fee was a fair value. But when his # was called, the bidding stopped at $6,000. I was sure he would be RNAed, but I got him for 1x the stud fee. It was not the sale “bottomer”, but it was close (a few horses sold for $4,000).

In the real world this horse was bought by Mark Schwartz. Mr. Schwartz’s horses have yet to win a race in 24 tries mainly at Penn National. I wish him luck with this one.

Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus. You could come to this sale, sit next to Bob Baffert and the Prince of Wherever, watch guys bid over $1,000,000 for a horse, but then walk away with a decent horse for $6,000. This is what make horse racing great, it requires the big shots, but it always requires thousands of Marl Schwartz’s to make the sport function.

When this horse walks to the gate for his first race, Mark will have all the excitement of any Triple Crown race.

I will call this horse

Quixote’s Bargain

until he gets a real name.

I did not come to the sale expecting to buy a Street Sense. His stud fee is $75,000. He is the sire of Maxfield and McKinzie. But his offspring did not sell well at this sale. This is his 10th crop of racing age. Buyers seem a little bored.

Along came hip #327 a son of Street Sense by a solid War Chant mare named Raising Dakota. She was a decent allowance horse at Canterbury running a 93. #327’s second dam produced the multiple graded stakes winner Pants on Fire. It is not perfect pedigree, but it is above average.

On the first day I had tried to buy several value horses at about 1x the stud fee, but each was RNAed. I was frustrated and planned to abandon the Value Partnership idea. But I did my homework late into the night for the second day of the sale. I thought this horse would sell for at least 1x the stud fee. He worked a decent 21.2, 38% were faster, but 50% were slower.

Then the bidding slowed down to $1,000 dollar increments at only $10,000. What was going on? Was everyone asleep? I mythically raised my hand and then the bidding stopped at $20,000. I did not really come to the sale planning to buy this horse, but I got him anyway. In the real world this way of buying a horse is almost certainly a mistake, but it could happen. I was sure this horse would not attain its reserve, but it did. I got him for 26% of the stud fee or .26 x. That’s a value, or maybe he is missing a leg.

The real buyer was Bradley Thoroughbreds, winner of 34 Grade 1 races. What plans do they for this guy? It will be fun to watch.

I have mythically named him:

Quixote’s Mistake

Few sires could be more unpopular than Bodemeister. All his bad work over the past few years got him put on the boat to Turkey by Winstar Farms. Do they race horses in Turkey? Yet a very in depth article in the Thoroughbred Daily News (a must read in the breeding world) considered him a leading “value” sire in 2019. They gave some very solid reasons why mare owners should consider using Bodemeister. Bode’s top son Always Dreaming will have his children hit the sales next year. Again Bodemeister did not race at 2, and his children have not been that precocious.

Hip #589 was a Bodemsister by a Kittens Joy mare named Tipsy. Kitten’s Joy is certainly a source of stamina. Tipsy was a solid allowance runner earning a top Equibase speed figure of 95. Her first foal ran a decent 78 in her first maiden race. This is only her second foal to race. The second dam has produced three different graded stakes winners when bred to Kitten’s Joy. The 2nd dam’s sire was the great stamina influence Woodman.

With all that stamina his pedigree I would expect #589 to work 21.3 or 21.4, yet he stopped the clocks at 21.0. Only 10% of the 2 furlong workers went faster. I was ready to pay 5x for this guy, but the hammer dropped at $20,000. About 1.25x his 2019 stud fee, I do not know how to translate Turkish Lira into dollars, so I will use last year. I consider this the best “value” buy of my 20 horses at this sale.

The real world buyer is not West Point or Eclipse, it is Raffuela di Paola. Her son Santino has 10 career wins at Woodbine. He is a young guy of about 27, and has some interesting stuff on social media. This might be the the best horse the di Poala’s have ever bought. I have to give them credit for buying a very solid horse at a fantastic price.

If you came to a sale with $20,000 and walked away with this horse, you should be very proud of your accomplishment. Who needs Mark Casse, my favorite Canadian trainer has just became Santino di Poala. Oh Canada we stand on guard for thee. Sing it.

In the di Paola’s honor I officially name this horse:

Quixote’s Canadian

but before the sale he was given a real name of Bode’s Tipsy. Is Bode Baffert old enough to drink?

I was never I big fan of the horse Bayern, but then I seldom cheer for Baffert. However, as a sire I had to give him a second look. He did not start as a 2-yr old, and only got good late in the year when he won the Breeder’s Cup Classic at 3. His first crop has not been successful so far, but that might be too small a sample size. I would consider him “out of favor”

Hip #1205 is by Bayern (stud fee $15,000) out of a very interesting Jeblar mare named Jera. Jeblar in now well thought of in Kentucky, but his children have won tons or turf races in Florida. Jera was a solid race hose running an Equibase 93, but she produced a multiple G1 winner Jeranimo by Congaree, and 5 other winners.

The pedigree is a little unusual, but you start shopping for discount horses, you seldom if ever find mares that produce a horse the quality of Jeranimo (who did not win until he was 3).

There was no reason to expect this horse to work quickly. Yet he went 20.4, only 4% went faster. I was not going to get way paying 4x or less for this guy. The work screamed out –racehorse! The hammer fell at $100,000 or 6.66x (yes the mark of the devil).

In the real world the buyer was a gentleman named Lance Gasaway. Mr. Gasaway came to this sale last year and paid $105,000 for a colt by the disappointing sire Looking at Lucky that worked a pedestrian 10.1. That colt was Louisiana Derby winner, and until yesterdays injury, a Derby contender, Wells Bayou.

If I could name Lance’s new Bayern it would be:

Quixote’s Contender

maybe I paid a little to much, but if that is what it takes to win a graded stakes race then so be it.

My top filly purchase is also a perfect example of my strategy.

Not many folks arriving in Ocala were saying, “I got to get me one of those Point of Entry’s”. This sire is a solid son of Dynaformer produced some solid winners on all surfaces.

Hip #162 was born on April 18th

The dam Mountain Mambo was a solid allowance mare that ran an Equibase speed fig of 95, and produced 6 winners. The second dam was by Kingmambo, and the third dam was by Nijinsky. Again I would consider this almost perfect pedigree.

Again I consider it a minor miracle that this filly went 2 furlongs in 21.1, faster than 78% of the horses that chose to work 2 furlongs.

Again I would have paid 10x the stud fee of $15,000, but the hammer fell at $65,000 or 4.3x.

The great news is the buyer was Dennis O’Neil who I believe might be acting on behalf of the Wygood family, or another Doug O’Neil owner.

Just to make this a perfect picture, I just looked up the winner of today’s 1 1/2 mile turf stake, the Louisville G3 at Churchill. The winner was a Point of Entry 5-yr old named Admission Office. Ridden by my favorite jockey Julien Leparoux.

The winner of the 2022 Louisville Stake (beating the boys) at 1 /1/2 miles will be:

Quixote’s Model

or whatever boring name they chose to give her.

Let’s start with an example of my horse selection strategy is action.

Macleans Music is not the world’s most popular sire. In fact since his career consisted of one race, I would guess than 60% of buyers would consider him a “toss out”. His only real claim to fame is producing Preakness winner Cloud Computing. Macleans Music did not start until March of his 3 year old season. Almost unheard of in the Baffert barn.

His stud fee is a reasonable $20,000. Hip #303 was a colt by Macleans Music, by a Pulpit mare named Provincial. #303 was born on April 21 (about a month later than the median).

Pulpit is of course a classic winning son of AP Indy. The old story was no son of AP Indy ever won a maiden 2- year old race at Saratoga. This is roughly the same breeding as Cloud Computing. Provincial was a solid allowance type horse that did not win until she was 4 years old. She has also produced 4 solid winners. Not stakes winners, but solid horses.

The Second dam is by my Favorite sire of all time Pleasant Colony. I have cashed many bets on Pleasant Colony descendants that improved later in there careers. The third dam is a solid producer by superstar Northern Dancer.

I would consider this the perfect pedigree for my methodology. Not many would consider it even average. There is not a winning 2 year old in sight on the page.

I consider it a minor miracle that this colt worked in 10.1, I would have expected 10.3 or even worse. I consider this a very talented horse. I wish I could do more to evaluate his appearance or running style, but all I have to go on is what I read.

This is a horse I would have paid 10x for, maybe more. When the bidding stopped on Wednesday, he sold for only 2.35x or $47,000. I consider this to be the bargain of the sale. He might have a crooked leg, or a small heart, but right now I consider him the best horse on the planet. He might not win a race until 2022, but when he does it will be at a price.

I wish he been bought by West Point or Eclipse, but instead he was bought by a car dealer from Chicago. Frank Mancari has won 35 of 225 starts, so he no amateur. Right now I think Mr. Mancari is the smartest guy in the world.

If I could name the horse I would call him:

Quixote’s Blueprint

Let me explain the slightly (or maybe very) controversial method I used to select my portfolio of horses.

Step 1 was to avoid all the “over-hyped” sires based on recent results. That means staying away from Constitution, Honor Code, American Pharoah, Nyquist, California Chrome, and others.

I also avoid what I consider sprint oriented, or precocious sires – Uncle Mo, Speightstown, Kantharos and many more.

These are often subjective decisions based on handicapping almost every weekend for over 20 years.

Step 2 is to avoid the expensive sires with stud fees of $40,000 or more.

Step 3 is to come up with a list of sires I think I have a more favorable opinion of compared to the general consensus. Measuring that consensus is subjective.

Step 4 is the most controversial. I look for horses with AVERAGE workouts, that I would EXPECT to have BELOW AVERAGE workouts based on their pedigree.

For over twenty years I have consistently made good bets on young horses that have pedigrees that indicate they will not run fast until the middle of their 3-year old season, or even later. Mike Helm had an excellent list of “win later” sires in his outstanding book on pedigree handicapping, and I have used this method ever since.

I do not yet understand “nicks” and “out-crosses”, but I can look at a pedigree and predict which horse is less likely to work 10.1 in June of their two year old career.

In this Ocala sale 20% of horses worked 9.4 or 10.0, 30% worked 10.1, and 50% worked 10.2 or slower.

Give me a Lemon Drop Kid colt out of a Pleasant Tap mare, that was born on May 1st, and worked 10.1, and I want to think about buying that horse. I would have EXPECTED a work of 10.2 or even 10.3.

I believe most owners want a horse with a fast work that has a precocious pedigree. I want an average work with a “win later” pedigree.

Most importantly I do not want to pay more that 3x to 4x the stud fee for my average work and questionable pedigree. I want to be a “value buyer”, but in some cases i will extend this limit.

For over 30 years I have been a professional investor buying stocks that sell at a low multiples of book value. Most of my fellow investment professionals consider this method “crazy”. I am sure many horse buyers will consider my methodology “crazy”. Welcome to my world.

As the poet Robert Frost said, “I took the road traveled by, and that has made all the difference”

How much should a horse sell for?

One way to express the price is as a multiple of a horse’s sire’s current stud fee. For example Macleans Music currently stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale for $20,000. So when the buyer of hip #303 paid $47,000, he 2.35 x the stud fee. What if a fair multiple? It depends on many factors.

This multiple is similar the Price/Earnings ratio of a stock. The higher the multiple, the more expensive a horse or a stocks is. In the stock market many argue that earnings is not the best denominator. Some would argue some measure of cash flow is a better denominator. I am sure horse investors have the same issue with a simple multiple of the current stud fee. Maybe it should be the stud fee when the horse was bred. Maybe it should be the average yearling price in the prior year.

For simplicity I will start by using a simple ratio of price paid divided by current stud fee to express the value of a horse. More complex ideas might come later.

After watching the sale I am going to express some very general opinion as a starting point of discussion. I stand ready to adjust this later. Here is my first impression:

For maybe the top 10 to 20 horses in the sale, the multiple matters very little and it is just what a really rich guy wants to pay for what he perceives as the best horse.

For everything else the multiple has some value.

10 x – is what might be paid for a horse with above average pedigree and an above average workout

5 x – is what might be paid for for a horse with either great pedigree, or a above average workout

3 to 4 x. – is what might be paid for an average pedigree and an average workout.

2 x – is what might be paid for for either avrerage pedigree and a below average work, or the reverse.

< 1 x. – is what might be paid for both below average pedigree and a below average work

In general a real slow workout time might not overcome even the best pedigree.

That is a very rough estimate of what I think multiple were is the sale I just watched. Maybe someday I will try to do some more precise calculations.

These are very general guidelines, and of course the quality of any pedigree is a very subjective and even experts will disagree

On a scale of 1 to 10 my knowledge of horse sales just doubled from 1 to 2, but it has a long way to go. What else do I need to learn?

1. I certainly know I need to get much better at judging horses physically and watching workouts. I know my bias is to favor long and tall horses, and dismiss anything that looks like a sprinter.
2. I must get better at reading pedigrees. Right now my simple approach is to dismiss anything that looks to sprinter oriented.
3. I need a better understanding of how the RNA process actually works.
4. I need to be better organized about how to develop a real world bidding strategy..
5. I need a better understanding if all the ways pinhookers acquire horses other than at yearling sales.
6. I need a better knowledge of the online resources available to evaluate horses
7. I need to understand the importance of consigners. Can you trust all of them or only some?

Now I need to go look at the Fasig-Tipton catalog. I am sure I have just taken the first step down a potentially very deep rabbit hole. Just trying to keep track of all these horse will be quite a challenge.

I now understand the horse sale business a little better. The feeling of hope from even buying mythical horses is significant. I can feel the endorphins being released, even though I am 1000 miles away, and not using real money. It as close as an adult can get to the feeling of a 7 year old in the week before Christmas. The excitement of what you might get is unique.

The feeling of thinking you bought a horse, and then being disappointed when the reserve is not attained still stings. I really wanted hip #762. i am thinking of calling Coastal Equine an making a deal myself

635 horses were sold to I would guess about 200 different owners. We each have an equal chance of winning next years Kentucky Derby, or even this years Breeders Cup Juvenile. Of course we are are competing against the 19,500 other 2-year olds, including the 400 or so on sale in a few weeks at the Fasig-Tipton sale.

It was a great experience to watch this sale from beginning to end. I wish I had done this earlier. It has also improved my handicapping. Three weeks ago, Vancouver was a city in Western Canada, but now I know it might be a sire that can get good 2 year old turf runner. So last week I used a Vancouver baby at 27-1 on the bottom of a $185 exacta.

Today I missed an easy Tonalist going 1 1/4 miles on the turf for Donegal, a good partnership operation.

Every maiden race looks different than it did three weeks ago. Today I watched Linda Rice run a $450,000 three year old from last year’s sale in his first race. The horse finished last, I could feel the pain and disappointment.. Every maiden claimer race I look at now is a tale of sales disasters. How can I avoid these horses, I am sure they looked so good a year ago? Every allowance race now requires that I scan the sale info in the Racing Form. How did this horse get here?

Every good race is now a competition between training sale horses vs. yearling sale horses, vs those evil home bred from owners of their own mares. Handicapping will never be exactly the same. It will be more interesting.

I would highly recommend that any serious handicapper look through the next catalog, or even sales results, and pick a few horses to follow. You do not have to go crazy and pick 20 like I did, I think 2 would be enough.

The sale was well run and fun to watch. Next year I will try to attend, but I am afraid I just might buy something.

Overall results were down about 20%, but including the supplemental horses it might be a little worse. Median price fell from $60,000 to $50,000. Given the pandemic and social unrest, the results might be called “better than expected”.

1. West Point Partners bought 3 horses, for $385,000, including an Ironicus
2. Eclipse Partners bought 6 horses, for $650,000, including a Violence of mine
3. Bill Parcells bought a $125, 000 Mshawish
4. Joe Besecker bought 11 horses for $400,000 total, top $60,000
5. Bradley thoroughbreds bought 3 horses for $200,000
6. Dare to Dream bought 2 horses for $125,000
7. Mike Dini ( a trainer I like) bought 2 for $25,000
8. Jerry Durant bought 3 for $1,000,000
9. Ironhorse bought 1 for $80,000
10. Ernie Kuehne bought 1 for $60,000
11. Donato Lani as agent bought 4 for $2,100,000
12. Frank Mancari bought 5 (including 2 of mine)
13. Victor Martinez (former Tiger) bought 2 for $225,000
14. Ken McPeek as agent bought 5 for $740,000
15. myracehorse.com bought 2 for $280,000
16. Jeremiah O’Dwyer bought 1 for $120,000 (interesting trainer)
17. Dennis O’Neil as agent for ? bought 7 for $400,000, one of mine
18. Pewter Stable bought 3 for $110,000
19. Reeves Thoroughbred bought 1 for $80,000
20. Antonio Sano bought 4 for $100,000
21. Matt Schera bought 1 for 65,000
22. Gary Sciacca as agent bought 2 for $175,000
23. Starship Stables bought 3 for $$122,000, one of mine
24. Ten Strike bought one for $35,000, a Brody’s Cause
25. Mike Vitello bought 3 for $38,000, one of mine
26. Cash is King bought 5 for $400,000
27. Repole bought 3 for $1,100,000
28. Drawing Away bought 1 for $$29,000
29. Quixote Stables mythically bought 20 for $1,041,000

Of course it would be crazy to go to this sale and buy 20 horses. Although a guy named Joseph Besecker did buy 10, none for more than $60,000. The idea was to build a portfolio of horses to watch over the next few years at all different price points from $200,000 to $5,000.

This is essentially a fantasy horse racing team, with “players” at many different positions. In the future I will try to pick one strategy, but for now let’s try many different things.

Going into the sale I thought that paying $75,000 to $100,000 was the best strategy, but I was surprised for what you could buy for under $50,000.

Of course it entirely possible that all these “value” horses have crooked legs and would never pass a visual inspection, or a look at their x-rays. On the other hand each of these horses were bought by real world people who I am sure are being advised by “experts’.

I guess we need name for this operation. What better for the name, but an imaginary character known for “tilting at windmills'”.

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125

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Derby Partners $150

1. Macleans Music #303 – $47 – Frank Mancari (IL)
2. Bayern #1205 – $100 – Lance Gasaway (Wells Bayou)

Oaks Partners $150

1. Point of Entry # 162 – $65 – Dennis O’Neil for ? (CAL)
2. Mshawish #326 – $30 – Thorostock LLC
3. Summer Front #997 – $35 – Shea D Stables (NY)
4. Tapiture #1195 – $17 – Mike Vitello (Tampa)
5. Tourist #1217 – $17 – Frank Mancari (Chicago)

Colt Prospects Partners $50

1. Carpe Diem #716 – $40 – Starship Stables (FLA
2. Tourist # 1216 – $6 – Mike Pender

Filly Prospect Partners $50

1. Ironicus #485 – $49 – JD Farms

Value $150

1. Frosted #944 – $65 – Al-Rashid Stables – (Dubai ?)
2. Dialed in #1019 – $47 – Peter Miller for ?
3. Street Sense -327 – $20 – Bradley Thoroughbreds
4. Liam Map #339 – $25 – Cash is King (NJ)

Special Value $50

1. We Miss Artie #351- $30 – Sterling Racing (NY)
2. Bodemeister #589 – $20 di Poala family (Woodbine)
3. Wicked Strong #359 – $5 – Mark Schwartz (Penn National)

Fancy Value $200

1. Malibu Moon #971 – $200 – Ron Ellis for ?

Personal Portfolio

1. Macleans Music #334 – $110 – Ralph Evans (NY)
2. Violence #258 – $125 – Eclipse Partners

Overall I spent $1,041,000 on 20 horses, or about $50,000 per horse

I put the over/under on purse money won at $500,000. Place your bets.

I found the perfect horse for my new Fancy Horse Partnership in hip #971. The Malibu Moon colt was sold for $200,000 to Ron Ellis. I assume that Ellis is agent for either the Wygood’s or another fashionable California owner. The work was a solid 21.2. The dam was an unraced Fusaichi Pegasus mare. I think Fu Peg was the best looking horse I have ever seen, so I have a bias. When the second dam was bred to Malibu Moon years ago the result was a $900.000 earner By The Light. By The Light then produced a $1.5 million earner By The Moon. It is certainly risky to spend so much for a horse out of an unraced mare, but that is why we are doing this with imaginary money.

This will be a fun horse to watch and compare to the cheaper horses. I am not suggesting this is a good strategy, but it is worth trying. The general idea is that the real bargains at this sale were at the higher end of the market.

I was excited to add #997 to my Oaks Partnership. This was really my second favorite filly prospect. The mare was a solid Empire Maker filly trained by Bill Mott. She ran a 104 speed fig during her brief career. She has produced 3 winners, including one of $200,000. Summer Front is the sire of Ete Indien who lost a few days ago, but still seems headed to the Haskell.

In the real world this horse was purchased by the interestingly named Shea D Boys Stable. The owner is Dennis Shea, so I will forgive him his choice of a stable name. He has won a Stallion Series Stake in New York, and 10 races from 29 starts. The trainer was Jason Servis. In the US you are still innocent until proven guilty.

I had to pay up for Bayern going for $100,000. The real buyer, Lance Gasaway, bought one horse at the sale last year for $100,000 named Wells Bayou. I knew #1205 had sold as a yearling for $80,000 so I was expecting to pay up.

In the end I returned the Value Partnership to its original intention by adding what I thought was the best Frosted #944. The ruling family of Dubai apparently agrees. I put the two horses that did not fit in any partnerships into my personal portfolio.

I got two cheap Tourist’s at the end, #1216 and #1217. Maybe they will be late developers like dad.

I could have waited for the Carpe Diem #1313, but all my money was gone.

I called an emergency meeting of my imaginary partners and raised $200,000 to buy a fancy horse. With average and median price down over 25% on the third day, it is time to be a buyer. If the Dow drops in the morning, it might be an interesting day.

I have my eyes on a few fast Frosted’s, Kitten’s Joy, Quality Road, or maybe even an Exxaggerator. The real reason to do this is to remind myself latter what a bad idea it is. I have already accomplished 80% of what I wanted to with the value approach. Let’s try for a growth stock. It might be hard to find something that is not RNAed, but maybe there are some over-leveraged pinhookers.

The Prospect Colt Partnership was filled nicely with the $40,000 Carpe Diem.

I a still looking for another horse in the Derby Partners, and another for the Oaks, but the other 4 are done.

I was disappointed that the Sky Mesa colt was RNAed for $47,000

The Tonalist #1276 was announced as a cribber, so I was out, but then he sold for $130,000 which really put me out.

My key colt on the last day is #1205, or maybe #1313, the key fillies are #997 and #1085.

Hip #716 sold to the owner of Starship Stables. The retired Miami lawyer is a big fan of Star Trek (so am i) so he puts Starship in every horse’s name. I think his horses are often trained by Steve Dwoskin, and I have hit several at nice prices over the years. One benefit of watching the sales is it can help your handicapping.

I was worried that this horse would be RNAed, now I am worried it can’t run. Time will tell

#762 Sky Mesa colt that was my top choice going into the sale was sold for $47,000, but was RNAed. Let’s hope their is a private sale, but that still leave my looking for a colt

There is an interesting horse early on the third day. Upstart is an interesting first crop. He was Richie Violette’s last good horse. As a grandson of AP Indy he should be stamina oriented. He had some big sellers in the March sales (one for $600,000), but so far here he has had just one for $75,000.

This horse was one of 13 that chose to work 3/8 of a mile. Did he want to show off his stamina, or was he afraid he would work 10.4 if he only went 1/8 ? This horse had the middle time or 6th of 13, at 33.4. The two horses with slow times were RNAed for $40,000. The horse with the fasted 3/8 was withdrawn.

Another Upstart with a exactly a 33.4 sold for $75,000 as hip #225. I like this dam a little better. The other long workers have sold for $90k. $75k, $75k, $25k, and $25k, the fastest work selling for the most.

The dam of #638 was a solid horse that ran 2nd in a G3 stake at a distance. She has already produced a solid runner by Creative Cause.

There are 6 Upstarts left to be sold, #735 has a 21.0 work and should go for $150,000+. The other 5 have solid 1/8 works between 10.0 and 10.2. How should one evaluate the 3/8 work? My bias is too like it, I think most others might dislike it. That is why they have horse races.

I have 3 interesting fillies left #997, #1217, and #1085, and I have $55,000 left in my Oaks Partnership. I fear that 2 will go for above my price range, and the third is very shaky with great pedigree and slow work. I guess I will bid up to $60,000 here.

Sometimes the middle of a fantasy baseball auction is the sweet spot. Many shooters have fired all their bullets, and others are saving them all for the end. Yesterday had to be a little disappointing to the sellers. Let’s see what happens. 30 minutes to post.

After this the focus is on #716, #752, and #1276 a Tonalist colt I would pay $120,000 for.

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So with all that build up, the horse did not show up. It was not listed on the website list of “outs”, it was not shown as withdrawn on the list of horses. The prior 8 horses sold very poorly. A Speighstown with a slow work went for less than half his stud fee.

Did the consigner just get cold feet? Where will this filly show up next, or will they just choose to race her? This is part of the sale game I need to learn more about.

But then 5 minutes later an Algorithms filly, with a slow work of 21.3, sold for 25x her stud fee. Go figure

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So hip #638 was withdrawn from the sale and some how showed up with Let’s Go Stable. He ran 5 times for Todd Pletcher without winning, and the first time in a maiden claimer he was claimed. He is named Deemed Essential. So he turned out a good horse but not a great horse. It was Nial Brennan who withdrew him from the sale.

The Algorthms horse also became a decent horse and eventually became a decent horse that won a $30,000 claimer at Oaklawn.

The stats for Day 2 of the sale are out, and the picture is worse. Both average and median are down 20% from last year. It is even worse given that this year’s sale includes maybe 50 horses that had intended to sell at the higher class Fasig-Tipton sale that was canceled in March. Many of those horses are going to Timonium, but some are in Ocala. That includes the sale topper of $1,350,000 for a Not This Time filly, that was in the supplemental catalog.

I have a new favorite for tomorrow, hip #716. I love the Carpe Diem story, and the mare ran graded stakes races at 1 1/4 on the turf (she is by Arch). I am not sure how I missed this horse the first time through the catalog. The horse is consigned by a group called Hartley/DeRenzo that has already turned down $390,000 and $250,000 for two fast working fillies. This colt was already RNAed for $60,000 as a yearling, so he might to actually get spld at a decent price.

I am willing to spend the $103,000 left in the Derby Partnership, but with a 10.2 work maybe I will not have to.

Back in the damn real world I now own 2% of Tapizar colt, hip #456. This is not the horse I would have chosen, but let’s give the Dare to Dream guys a chance to prove me wrong. The dam side is a sprint oriented Dixie Union mare that ran 90-96 Equibase speed figs consistently. The breeding is very similar to Tapizar’s star offspring Monomoy Girl. Mike Dubb and Sol Kumin paid only $100,000 for her, so it is ok to dream. MG is out of a Henny Hughs mare I would never give a second look.

My new guy worked a quick 9.4, better than 95% of the other horses in the sale. I would prefer more stamina in the breeding, but what the $%#%%$#$ do I know. He is a great looking horse, and for $75,000 it is difficult to argue they paid too much, even if he never goes past 7 furlongs. The other Tapizar that sold had a 10.0 work, and went for $205,000 with a less impressive dam Carson City dam.

I closed 3 of my 6 partnerships today and 3 more reamin open for the last two days of the sale.

As I wrote last night the Bargain strategy was too difficult to execute so I used this partnership to buy a Macleans Music filly that I just loved. She is out of a useful Arch mare, and the second dam is a stakes winning AP Indy mare. I could not find a better combination to mix with the speed of MM. The price was steep, $110,000, but for a 21 flat work, I still think it is a bargain. In the real world the buyer was Ralph Evans, a very serious owner. She should be well cared for.

To fill out the Bargain Partnership I added 2 cheap horses that were not RNAed. The first was #327, a Street Sense colt. out of a solid Canterbury turf mare. The price was $20,000, or well less than half the stud fee. In the real world the buyer was Bradley Thoroughbreds, who has better things to do buy $20,000 horse. This one will be fun to watch.

To fill out the partnership I added hip #337, I was looking for a Liam’s Map. This one had a ton of pedigree (the second dam is Oaks winning Real Cozy), but a slow 21.4 work. In the real world Charles Zacney of Cash is King agreed and payed $25,000.

That put the partnership $5,000 over, but I am a generous guy. Maybe it was unfair to buy the MM filly in here, but with all the buybacks I decided to go this way.

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The Prospect Filly partnership filled right to the top. The Ironicus filly #485 went for $49,000 to the unknown JD Farm. It was interesting that West Point Partners bought another Ironicus horse yesterday (#260) for the same price. I think I got the right one. I am more confidant here because I knew the mare well (Sotique, formerly trained by Bobby Ribaudo).

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I also filled the Bargain Basement with a strange group.

It started with my value favorite by We Miss Artie for $30,000 (#351). In the real world Sterling Racing (winner of $1,000,000 in purses) wrote the check. Maybe Mr. Ramsey is just selling his castoffs, or maybe he is trying to make We Miss Artie a commercial success.

Then I added one of my favorite colts by Bodemeister than went for only $20,000 (#589). This is the bargain of the sale so far. The buyer was a small time Canadian owner/trainer group the di Paulo family . It’s not Chad Brown, but you have to start somewhere.

I also bought #359 for $5,000. I assumed the Wicked Strong colt would be RNAed, but Mark Schwartz is the new owner. He has yet to win a race in 24 lifetime tries at Penn National. This is why I called it the bargain basement. I noticed this horse because it was consigned by the same woman as my favorite horse. The mare by Medaglia de Oro was stakes placed and produced a $100,000 winner. You could do worse for $5,000.

Maybe this is actually the perfect starter horse, or it might be a money pit that is best as a riding horse. Let’s watch.

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I also add #326 a Mshawish filly to Oaks Partnership (which will now be renamed my Turf Mares Partnership). The colt was reported as RNAed for $27,000, but later the website changed to report a private sale for $30,000 to Thorostock LLC (whose name is not found in Equibase). If this is a first time owner, it will be fun to watch what happens.

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There is still room in my other partnerships. The key horse is #762 the Sky Mesa colt. I can pay up to $103,000 in my Derby Partnership, so I am confidant.

I let two nice Maclean Music colt #453 (sold for $75,000) and #578 (sold for $47,000, but RNAed) go by today, because I wanted to leave room for #762.

I was also outbid for #529 a nice Noble Mission colt who went for $90,000, to a small Remington Park owner it appears. I would only go $50,000 for the Noble Mission colt.

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I now have a clear plan for day 2.

#326 I will go up to $85,000 for this filly, my second favorite for the Oaks Partners

#334 I will use the Bargain Partners up to $100,000, for this spectacular filly

#351 I will go up to $50,000 for Colt Prospect

#359 backup for 351

#367 This Frosted colt could fit in the Bargain strategy

#453 will go up to $103,000 in Derby Partners

#485 will go to $50,000 in Prospect Filly

#529, #578, or #589 could fit in Prospect colts or Bargain Basement

I am out on #348 which was originally my 3rd best colt

I have 4 solid, but not spectacular ideas for days 3 and 4, but not so good that I feel compelled to wait.

What I am beginning to understand is how difficult this process is if your best prospects come up late in the auction.

I think the sale went better than expected. Despite all the economic uncertainty the average and median price were down only a few percent. The buyback rate was higher 30% compared to last years 20%. The sale topper was $750,000.

My strategy will change a little for day 2. It looks like the Bargain strategy might be hard to execute with so may buybacks, so I might try to use my Bargain Partnership to buy another Maclean’s Music. My partners did not read the fine print in their contracts.

The tough call will come early on #326, my second favorite filly if she sells for less than $84,000. i might wait for one of the Macleans Music’s. The same problem will occur with my third favorite colt #348, I think the Bodemeister will sell for less than $50,000.

Back in the real world the Dare to Dream guys say they bid on few horses, but could not get what they wanted.

I am sure that every horse buyer has plenty “fish that got away” stories. Here are mine.

I was happy to get my top filly, but the interesting one I did not get was the Violence filly #258. Eclipse Partners bought it for $125,000. Maybe I can buy a share in the real world.

The toughest to pass on was #13. I really liked this filly, and she sold for a reasonable $95,000. This will be one to watch.

The Not This Time #259 went for $95,000 but was RNAed

The Temple City #274 was bought by Three Diamonds Farm for $40,000. I did not know I was RNAed of #222 or I could have bought this one.

It was interesting that Dennis O’Neil bought #81 the Alpha colt for $52,000.

The interesting one was #134 the Pioneerof the Nile who dam producer Dullihan and Mine that Bird. The work was a slow 10.4, so the top bid was $70,000, but it was a RNA

The Frosted I wanted was withdrawn.

The cheap one was a Brody’s Cause #43, that actually sold for $6,000. An Orb I wanted sold for $9,000, but was RNAed.

The Ghostzapper. #146 sold for $32,000. It was first reported as a RNA, but then later was called a private sale. It had sold as a yearling for only $13,000 and looked very small, so I passed.

The Jess’s Dream #34 sold $25,000, but I was waiting on the Flintshire #222

The Anchor Down I wanted at #51 was RNAed for $47,000

I was “successful” in several of my imaginary bids on the first day.

Most importantly the price for #303 was only $47,000. I expected to pay more. The price might very well indicate the horse has some problems. The real buyer was a Chicago car dealer named Frank Mancari that has been a successful owner in the past. He wins at 15%, and has won graded stakes races. That still leave $103, 000 is my Derby Partnership.

Even better was my “successful’ bid of $65,000 for the Point of Entry filly #162. The buyer was Doug O’Neil’s brother for I assume Paul Reddam. In was fun to see a serious owner buy my top filly pick. I did not always cheer for Doug O’Neil, but now I will.

My other semi-successful bid was for #222 the Flinshire colt. The winning bid was $42,000, but 30 minutes later i learned the reserve was not attained. It is difficult to decide how to play this. I will assume I did not get the horse, but in the real world i might have been able to buy it privately for $45,000 to $50,000. I will keep tracking this horse, but I will mythically assume my Bargain Basement partners were losers today.

My estimates for most horses were reasonable. Some of the good horses sold for less and several were RNAed. There were quite a few horses I thought were worth $50,000 that sold for $100,000 and not that many bargains.

It is time to come with a strategy for tomorrow. I bet lots of horse people to not sleep well during this week.

It has been a fun week watching the works and reading the catalog, but now the shooting begins.

I was a getting second thoughts about #13, but I now will go to $50,000. I am not sure how to judge the 3/8ths work, but you have to love the pedigree on the dam side. In the real world it would be very difficult to bid on the 8th horse in the sale. It would be much easier to wait any see how thing develop.

I have plenty of experience in high dollar fantasy baseball auctions. Often times the bargains come early. I have an estimate of what the first 7 will should sell for, that will be the only measure of the market. If #3, #6, #8, sell for less than $30,000 I might have a chance. #2, #7, #10 could go for big $’s an give me some idea of the top of the market.

I have made an estimate for each horse sold today, it will interesting to see how close i get. You have to start somewhere.

In the real world I just got an e-mail from Dare to Dream saying they had received my payment of $2,300 to buy 2% of a purchase at this Ocala sale. Any horse being bid on just might be mine, or more accurately a small part mine.

I had invested with Dare to Dream several year ago, but the horse had breathing problems and never even made it to the track. It was a Temple City colt they had purchased privately. It was a difficult first experience investing in a partnership, but they handled everything professionally. They had great success with a The Factor colt named Embolden last year.

I was really impressed with what Dare to Dream did in the March Ocala sale. They bought a nice Into Mischief filly named Arrest Warrant for $80,000 (less than 1/2 the stud fee), that had an excuse for a slow work of 22 at the sale. She is a big filly that should easily get two turns.

I hope they will find another bargain here in the real world.

Update: This became Quick Tempo, who broke his maiden at Arlington at first asking

Day 1 will be very busy.

In my Derby Partnership I will be looking to get hip #303 for $150,000 or less.

In my Oaks Partnership I will focus on trying to get #162 for less than $100,000. Otherwise I will wait for #997

In my Prospect Colt Partnership I will pray to get #259 for under $50,000, but the better prospects are on the second day, especially We Miss Artie.

In my Prospect Filly partnership I would take #13 the Carpe Diem filly for $30,000 of less, but would really like #234 for less than $50,000.

In the Bargain Partnership I would love #73 for less than $75,000. I will pass on #42 or #48. Another possibility would be #108 or #134.

In the Bargain Basement Partnership I will be looking at #222 for less than $50,000, which means I will have to pass on 34, 43, 46, 51, 81, 98, 89, 132, 166 which might all be great buys for $25,000 or less.

This is getting complicated. I need to hire an assistant, and I am not yet spending any real money.

I had TVG on for a brief moment yesterday, and I saw a 30 second commercial for Maclean’s Music. I vaguely knew the story of the big 114 Beyer as a maiden, and the success with Cloud Computing. I generally wrote off his offspring as pure sprinters, but the commercial made me think again. Then last night I was looking through the pedigree of a Flintshire foal, and I was reminded what a nice horse Flintshire was. Being confused by the swirl of looking at 1300 horses I asked the the question, “where was Flintshire standing?

The Stallion Register (a very useful website) showed me he was at Hill ‘n’ Dale. Over 15 years ago I got a tour of their beautiful farm when my friends were beginning to breed their champion mare. I remember it was an impressive presentation, and the people were very nice and talked a good game. So I looked again down their stallion roster, and there I saw Maclean’s Music. The commercial I saw, combined with my Flintshire research, and my distant memories of Hill ‘n’ Dale made me dig deeper. What I found was amazing. I loved almost every single mare that Maclean’s Music was bred to in this sale. They generally had great pedigree’s top and bottom.

I am now officially a Maclean’s Music fan, and a Hill ‘n’ Dale fan. That means I will give an extra look to horses by Bayern, Flintshire, Violence, Midnight Lute, and Kantharos. Curlin and Kitten’s Joy are out of my price range. But at $20,000 Maclean’s Music is in my price range.

Moving straight to the top of my list is hip #303, a son of Maclean’s with nearly perfect pedigree of the dam side. The third dam was a Northern Dancer mare and produced a G1 winner. The second dam was by my favorite broodmare sire Pleasant Colony. The first dam is by Pulpit and predictably did not start winning until she was 4 years old.

#303 moves right to the top of my list. He worked 10.1. He is a an April 21 foal. He was RNAed for $55,000 as a yearling. Will he be in my price range? We will know later this afternoon. I am also now interested in hip #234 at a lower price for my filly partnership, I will only take #13 this morning if the price is under $40,000.

In the real world this would be a crazy way to buy a horse, but on paper it is fun. I am also now eagerly awaiting the new foals Cloud Computing (the Preakness winning son of Macleans Music. I guess I have to become a bigger fan of Distorted Humor and his sons Ironicus, Khozan, Jimmy Creed, and Alternation

I am not certain that the under $50,000 price point is the best place to find value at this sale. Here are a few ideas. I would prefer to buy 2 for $25,000, but that might not be practical.

#34 – Jess’s Dream is the son of Rachel Alexandra, but only managed one race before getting hurt. The mare is not much, but the work was ok at 21.2. The stud fee is only $5,000 maybe I can steal it for $20,000.

#46 – Carpe Diem by Fusaichi Pegasus – the work was a slow 21.4, this horse might not be fast, but he must be good looking, a pure speculation

#81 – Alpha by Rahy – there is only one Alpha in the sale, the work was a solid 10.1, the mare was a decent allowance horse. A bargain under $25,000

#222 – Flintshire by Pleasant Tap. – no one is getting excited about this sire, the mare has produced a $1,000,0000 winner, worth a speculation, the work was an ok 21.3, might go to $40,000 here

#98 – Vancouver by MajesticWarrior. not sure what to make of Vancouver, the mare adds stamina, the work was a slow 10.2, worth a shot for $25,000

#89 – Orb by Gold Case. – Orb is a value sire, the mare is a producer of stakes winner Syndergaard, the work was a slow 21.3, not horrible at a price

#166 – Sky Mesa – Sky Mesa is a value sire, the mare was ok, the work was a quick 10.0, there is some stamina on the dam side, a bargain under $30,000

#132 – Summer Front by Mineshaft – the work was a slow 21.2, stamina on the dam side, a pure speculation on Ete Indien, not completely crazy

#264 – Lope de Vega – will American pay up for this European sire, if they do not i would pay up to $40,000. The work was an ok 21.2. Could go for much more.

#306 – Lea by Pulpit – the market has lost interest in this sire, the work was a slow 10.2, stamina on the dam side, worth a shot under $25,000

#43 – Brody’s Cause by Lemon Drop Kid – The dam produced two solid runners from 2 foals, OK for $20,000, but the pinhooker paid $75,000 work was a slow 22

#51 – Anchor Down – maybe fits better here than as a top 12 filly, $25,000 might be fair value, tough call

#54 – Mineshaft by Gone West son, worked a slow 21.4, mare was a solid turf sprinter and has produced good horses. Pinhooker paid #105,000 as a yearling, interesting at $30,000??

The bargain strategy is buying expensive sire’s, that had below average works. I think this is a more dangerous strategy, but it might have more upside.

#73 – Frosted by European bloodlines, worked a slow 21.4, but I love the pedigree. Frosted stands. Might be a bargain at 2x or $40,000. I think Frosted will be OK, he is just over priced. A pinhooker paid $70,000, will he sell at a loss?

#104 – I think Constitution has been over-hyped, but I am intrigued by Kingmambo on the dam side. Would be willing to pay 2x. Work was slow 21.3. The pinhooker paid $41,000 as a yearling, I can even give him a profit

#108 – How much will this Pioneer of the Nile be punished for a slow 21.4 work. By a nice AP Indy mare. Anything under $100,000 will be a bargain.

#115 – Quality Road by a Giants Causeway son, solid dam, worked 21.4

#134 – Pioneerof the Nile by the dam of Mind that Bird and Dullihan. the work was a slow 10.4. What will the discount be?

#271 – Constitution by a stakes placed Pleasant Tap mare. the work was an average 10.1. A at bargain 2x or less, The pinhooker paid $60,000

#42 – Street Sense by Lemon Drop Kid work was a slow 10.2, big female family under 2ns dam, but dam was nothing will this sell for half the stud fee? Pinhooker paid $125,000 as a yearling, what is it worth now??

#48 – Uncle Mo bred to European turf royalty, the family of High Chaparral, very strange horse, very slow work 10.4, worth thinking about, very high risk, April foal,

#146 – Ghostzapper by Pleasant Tap , ok work of 21.2, mare solid in Midwest, not exciting could you get it for $90.000, yearling sold for only $13,000, tricky

First lets imagine I had an unlimited budget, what would I buy?

The notes after the ——– were done after the sale

I did a poor job of picking the expensive horses, some must have some really bad x-rays, becasuse they have fast works and tons of pedigree

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#1254 this Not This Time filly had the fastest work by far at 20.1, out of a G3 winner

——was the sale topper for $ 1,350,000

#840 this filly is the fastest Frosted, out of graded winner, who produced a graded winner

——–sold for “only” $180,000

#493. a Street Sense filly that worked 20.3 and has a ton of pedigree under the second dam

———what a bargain, only $80,000

#1275 a Liam’s Map filly that worked 20.4, multiple G1 winner Jersey Girl is the second dam

———withdrawn

#1235. a colt Candy Ride, from a stakes winner, the horse is consigned by an interesting pinhooker

———–another bargain only $200,000

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Just for fun lets ignore my bias against certain sires and try to to find there best entry (not the best buy, just the best)

American Pharoah – there were none with decent 2f works – pass

Blame – #249 a nice 20.4—–went for $225,000

Cairo Price – #199 a 21 work and decent pedigree —withdrawn

California Chrome – #979 worked 21.2 from a stakes winner —-only $100,000

Constitution – #341 20.3 work, from a solid mare —-$450,000

Curlin – #727. from a high class European mare, worked 21.1. —-$210,000 RNA

Empire Maker #1060 worked 10.0, from a solid Tapit mare —— $475,000

Exaggerator -#789 worked 21, buy a stakes producing mare. —– $120,000 RNA

Into Mischief – #208 worked 20.3, by a stakes winner, maybe the sale topper? —- only $100,000 (must have problems)

Kitten’s Joy – #984. worked 10.1, might be the top turf horse—— $115,000

Lemon Drop Kid – #701, worked 9.4 by a Giant’s Causeway mare, very interesting. —to Tom Durant for $360,000

Medaglia de Oro – #466 worked 10.1, by stakes winner.—–$65,000. RNA

Nyquist – #877 – worked 21 by a stakes producer. —- $60,000. RNA

Quality Road #1018 worked 20.3 out an AP indy mare, another sale topper? —–$1,250,000

Runhappy – #1266, 20.3 and a pure sprint pedigree. —-$80,000. RNA

Speightster – #261, these were good looking horses, several went 2f nicely —-$72,000

Tapit – #1038 worked 21.2, by a Giant’s Causeway stake winner. ——- Only $50,000

Uncle Mo – no decent 2f works – pass

Union Rags – #579 worked 21.1, fron a G1 producer ———-withdrawn

My guess is that these will all be $200,000+ sellers, if they sell for less than $100,000 they must have very crooked legs. Might be too biased in favor of 2f works

It is a few hours before the sale, and I can feel the anticipation. Will I get #162 at my price (under $150,000). The early action is #13. Can I snag a Carpe Diem for less than $50,000? Maybe #51 for $35,000 or less?

I will be fascinated to see how the slow working sell, #73 is a Frosted that worked a slow 21.4, but has a ton of European pedigree. Will he sell for less than 1.5x? Or maybe #108 a slow working Pioneerof the Nile.

The real question is how will this sale go given the current economic situation.

The issue is what you might bid for your less than favorite idea, given your favorite might be 2 days away. You really need to judge the price of each horse, and especially similar horse, to judge how the sale is going.

Of course trying to pick these horses without seeing them in person, or being able to look at their x-rays is nearly impossible, but it is still fun

And then I realized the sale does not start until Tuesday, and I have more time for plotting.

I will operate 6 mythical partnerships going into this auction. The purpose is to imagine the bidding strategy required over a 4 day auction.

I admire the work done at West Point, Team Valor, Starlight, Ten Strike, and all the smaller partnerships. I have invested with Dare to Dream in the past, and just purchased a 2% share of a partnership that will buy a horse in the sale for about $80,000 to $100,000.

But why not start my own partnership? Just for practice lets try a variety of strategies.

1. $150,000 to buy one of my top colts #762, 589, 348, 1155
2. $50,000 to buy one of my more speculative colts. Maybe 259 on the first day
3. $150,000 to buy a top filly, starting with #162
4. $50,000 to a speculative filly, starting with #13 or 51, 262
5. $150,000 bargain strategy, may be #42, 47, 48, 71, 73, 74, 77, 96, 104, 108, 115, 134, 148, 149, 181, 244, 271
6. $50,000 bargain basement strategy #54, 66, 101, 107, 166, 248, 256, 34, 43, 46, 52, 54, 62, 81, 89, 98, 132, 222, 235, 264, 306

I will spend a little more in each partnership (up to 20%) if I have to not get outbid

The bargain strategies would involve paying 1x to 2x stud fees for sires I thought were out of our price range, ($30,000 or more) but had slow works, but plenty of pedigree. I will take these day to day

The bargain basement strategy is for ideas that are a little crazy, but at the right price might be interesting. I really like the one Alpha (#81) being offer for under $25,000, or a colt by Jess’s Dream #34.

The basic strategy will be the same, but with fillies I might focus a little more on pedigreee and a little less on work out times.

I still want some long distance ability, and fillies from second tier sires. Maybe the price ranges should be a little less, but I still would prefer 5x, but be willing to pay 10x.

1. #162 – Point of Entry by Mt. Livermore (sire of the second dam is Kingmambo.) Point of Entry is the best available son of Dynaformer. This is clearly a 1 1/2 pedigree. The dam won a small stakes race with a speed figure of 100. She has produced a few winners. The work was a spectacular 21.1 for such a distance oriented pedigree. This is exactly the type of horse I would like to find. The stud fee is $15,000. I would have to be very disciplined not be the high bidder, even at 20x. April foal. As a yealing the filly RNAed at $44,000. named Avisse
2. #326 Mshawish by Street Cry (the second dam sire is Sadler’s Wells). I hope Mshawish in the next great son of Medaglia de Oro. The dam is unraced, but the second dam was second in a long distance grade 1 turf race. The work was a solid 21.2. The stud fee is only $10,000. This would be a great buy for 5x. Sold for $32,000 as weanling. named Risky Reward
3. #13 – Carpe Diem by Sadler’s Wells. I am not sure sure if Carpe Diem is a turf horse, but if he is it will with this type of mare. Mom was unraced, but has produced a G2 placed turf filly by Tapit. The second dam is a multiple graded stakes winner. The filly was one of horses to work 3/8’s of a mile. The time was 33.2, the 5th fastest of the 13. The stud fee is $15,000. She sold for $25,000 as a yearling. named Killer Dress
4. #274 – Temple City by Danzig. I am a big fan of Temple City. The mare was unplaced, but did produced the winner of the G3 Illinois Derby. The work was a solid 10.1, I would have preferred 2 furlongs. April foal. Temple City stands for $7,500. Sold as a yearling for $20,000 dam polish flower
5. #485 -Ironicus by Hennessy. Ironicus is an interesting first crop sire. He was more of miler, but his pedigree suggests he could have gone longer. The mare was a $200,000 yearling purchase trained by Bobby Ribuado. Bobby was the trainer of my friend’s multiple graded stakes winning filly Biogio’s Rose, so I have followed all Ribuado’s horses carefully. She was a solid allowance horse for awhile and ran several 90 speed figures. The work was a quick 21.0. The stud fee is $5,000. I would love this for anything less than 10x April foal. named Shady Summer
6. #997 – Summer Front by Empire Maker. This sire could get more attention if Ete Indien continues to run well. The mare was a solid allowance horse for Bill Mott, and was a $330,000 yearling purchase. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $10,000. This might really be my second favorite filly.
7. #51 – Anchor Down by Majestic Warrior. Anchor was a fast miler, and a son of Tapit. The dam ran 80 speed figure in her first try, but then got hurt. The work was a solid 21.2, and the stud fee is 7,500. This is the first crop. Sold for $11,000as a yearling. named Captured Prize, running in Puerto Rico
8. #262 Palace Malice by Grand Slam This son of Curlin has been getting some runners. The dam was unraced, but has produced 4 solid winners. Maybe this is trying to hard to get a classic sire. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $25,000 April foal. dam pilamaya
9. #1217 – Tourist by Pulpit Tourist is an interesting first year sire that could be either turf or dirt. The dam was not much, but has produced a solid stakes quality runner named Adonis Creed, who I have bet on several times. The work was a slow 10.3, but the familiarity with the female family is a plus. Tourist stands for $7,500. April foal. named mike’s Lady
10. #258 – Violence by Pioneering. Maybe I am trying to hard to find the best son of Medaglia de Oro, but he produces so many great looking horses. This mare set a NCR at Parx at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. She produced a solid winner. Fee is $25,000. April foal, The work was 21.2. RNAed for $45,000 as a yearling. named nurturing
11. #1085 – Orb by Buddha. (Buddha was a son of Unbridled Song) Most have given up on Orb as a sire, but TDN calls him a “value sire”. The dam was a slow horse but has producer 5 winners from 5 foals, including a grade 1 winning turf miler, Valid Point. The work was a fast 21.1. Orb stands for $10,000. Sold as a yearling for $85,000. named gathered flowers
12. #225 – Upstart by More than Ready. Upstart was Richie Violettes last good horse. His yearlings have been selling like hotcakes. The mare was slow, but produced a G3 placed colt in her first foal. The work was a slow 33.4, but maybe indicates she has stamina.Upstart stands for $10,000, but his yearlings sold for a median of $40,000 last year. This one sold for $25,000 as a yearling. I would be a buyer up to $50,000. named zoom up

I would love to buy each of these colts at 5x their stud fee, but I would certainly pay 10x. For the top 5 I might even go 20x.

There were 14 works of 9.4 and 100 10.0, there were also 34 works of 20.4 or faster. That is 148 horses that had fast works (1315 total, but only 800 worked). Last year 128 horses sold for $200,000 or more at this sale.

The basic theme is second tier sires, with solid route running mares, and an above average workout.

1. #762 – Sky Mesa by Distorted Humor (2nd dam by Dynaformer). I did not start out looking for Sky Mesa’s, but found an excellent TDN article about “value sires”. Sky Mesa is the grandson of AP Indy through Pulpit. I found an solid 21.1 work, for a May foal. Mom ran a 102 speed figures at 1 1/2 mile for Tom Proctor in a small stakes race at Keenland. Sky Mesa is a $15,000 fee. I also love the other 5 horses consigned by Coastal Equine, a pinhooker. Sold for $19,000 as a yearling. Named Too Legit
2. # 589 – Bodemiester by Kitten’s Joy (2nd dam by Woodman). Bodemeister is another “value sire”, who has been shipped to Turkey. That should not excite many buyers. Bodemiester is the son of Empire Maker, and grandson of Unbridled. He had a very solid 21 flat work. Mom ran a 95 speed fig for Wayne Catalano at 1 and 1/16 at Arlington. The second dam produced 3 graded stakes winners. Dam was bred to Uncle Mo her first year. Bodemiester fee was $15,000
3. #348 – Creative Cause by Grand Lodge. Creative Cause (a son of Giant’s Causeway, Grand Lodge won several 1 1/2 Irish G1’s) sired Pavel out an unraced Maria’s Mon mare. The work was a solid 21.1. Mom of 348 was a small time winner is Australia, but was bred for much better. She produced a solid winner with Exchange Rate. The second dam was a G2 winner at a distance, and produced a G2 winner. Creative Cause stands for $15,000. Sold for $35,000 as a yearling. Named Creative Boys
4. #1205 – Bayern by Jeblar. Everyone is down on Bayern’s, but I will give him another chance. The work was a very quick 20.4 . Mom was a solid long distance Tampa and Delaware allowance horse (ran 85’s). She producer a Multiple graded winner Jeranimo by Congaree. Bayern stands for $15,000. Sold for $75,000 as a yearling.
5. #1155 – Carpe Diem by Street Cry. I am a believer in the Carpe Diem story . He was a great looking $1,000,000 yearling whose career was cut short by injury. Mom ran solid 85″s at Laural. She produced a solid winner by Bernardini.. The second dam is by His Majesty. The work was a solid 21. April foal. Sold as a weanling for $220,000. This one might be too expensive. The backup might be 937 the mare ran a 101 speed figure in her short career. From a Seeking the Gold son. Sold for $30,000 as a yearling. Or maybe 1313 at the end
6. #340 – Social Inclusion by Lemon Drop Kid. Social Inclusion is a little known son of Pioneerof the Nile. He set a track record at Gulfstream, and was 3rd in the Preakness. He stand for$5,000 in Pennslyvania. The dam was unraced, but her full sister was a stakes winner in Canada. The alternative is paying $500,000 for an American Pharoah colt. The work was a reasonable 21.2 April foal.
7. #359 – Wicked Strong by Medaglia de Oro. Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy, and almost won the Travers. The mare won in England and was stakes placed in the U.S. She ran 96 speed figures 6 times. She produced 2 solid winners. Wicked Strong stands for $6,000. The work was an average 10.2. Consigned by the same woman as my #1 horse. Foaled in late April. Sold for $30,000 as a weanling
8. #389 – Dialed In by Unbridled Song. Dialed In was Zito’s last good horse, winner of the Florida Derby. Dialed In is another “value sire” that is getting better mares. His stud fee was recently doubled to $20,000 because his yearling were selling so well. The mare ran a solid 85 speed figure and has produced a G2 placed runner at 1 1/8.
9. #529 – Noble Mission by Smart Strike. The sire of Code of Honor is by Galileo and Sadler’s Wells. The dam set a NCR at Belmont for 1 1/4 on the turf. The second dam is G2 placed. The work was an ok 10.2. Stud fee is $20,000. Sold for $20,000 as a yearling.
10. #1276 – Tonalist by Exchange Rate. Mare ran a 107 finishing second in the G2 Indiana Derby. Produced two solid winners. Work was a solid 21.1. Foaled May 19th. Sold for $115,000 as a yearling.
11. #351 – We Miss Artie- Stop laughing, We Miss Artie was a solid horse (Artie Schiller by a Fu Peg Mare) that Pletcher pushed too fast for Mr. Ramsey. This large and beautiful colt worked a solid 21.1. An April foal, We Miss Artie stands for $5,000.
12. #259 – Not This Time by Songandaprayer. There were 6 Not This Time’s with fast works, but I took and average work of 21.3. The mare ran 104 speed figures at Hollywood and produced a $150,000 winner. The second dam was a G2 winner. at 1 1/16. Sold for $100,000 as a yearling.

The first thing I learned is that the horses run in a random order. They do not start with hip #1. They also included some horses from the supplement on this first day. The pace is about 30 horse per hour. After about 50 horses they pause 15 minutes to rework the track.

About 2/3 of the horses work 1/8 of a mile, the other third go 1/4 of a mile. I guess because this sale was delayed about 2 months, more horses are choosing 1/4 mile. In the first 50 the fastest 1/8 was 9.4 by an Into Mischief filly. Two colts by Blame and Quality Road worked 20.4 for 1/4. The slowest times were 10.4 and 22

The times are only reported in 1/5 of a second. It would seem that they could report 1/100 of a second, but you are just left to guess. Some horses seemed to get a little bit of a running start, especially in the 1/4 mile works. The camera angles are not great, and the video was a little choppy. There was a wind report with each work. It warmed up about 10 degrees in the first two hours. The wind varied from 0 to 4 mph during the works. Some horses were a little green with some head tossing, and one Orb filly lost the rider in the runout. There was not much use of the whip, just one touch at the beginning

The surprising work of the first group was an Ironicus filly that worked 21, tying for the 3rd fastest with several others. One of my favorite Carpe Diem’s went a disappointing 21.4. My Kentucky Oaks hopes were crushed in the first few hours.

You could make a guess about the relative size or each horse, but it was hard to draw too many conclusions. Many times horses I thought had a nice long stride had slower works, and the busy looking horse had the better times. It will be interesting to see if I can eventually learn more from these videos.

Then just to make things more confusing one of my most favorites Carpe Diems was the first to work 3/8 ths of a mile. The problems is her time of 33 and 2/5 cannot be compared to anything. Just to stop my complaining about 5 horses later a Curlin filly also worked 3/8’s in 34 2/5. Given her stud fee was $175,000 that cannot be too exciting.

So after 3 hours I am not sure what I learned. Maybe I saw a future Derby champion, maybe I did not see a single stakes horse. Only time will tell.

The purpose of this blog is to document my journey toward the purchase of a successful race horse. The journey begins a hour before the first under tack show of the Spring OBS 2-year old in training sale in Ocala. The process of buying a race horse is complicated, but you have to start somewhere.

What is a successful race horse. I would define it as one who wins an allowance race at a mid-level track. Of course the dream is for a stakes horse, but you have to realistic.

My first step will be to carefully watch this Ocala sale. I am not sure that this type of sale is the best place to buy a champion thoroughbred. The yearling sales might be better, but that will come this fall.

My approach to buying horses is the same as buying stocks. I have no interest in Amazon or Facebook, they are too expensive. Likewise, I have no interest in Tapit, Quality Road, Into Mischief or any of the expensive sires.

I am always searching for value.

I have spent many hours of Covid lockdown looking through the catalog. To start, I will be focusing on the sires:

1. Dialed In
2. Carpe Diem
3. Temple City
4. Point of Entry
5. Summer Front
6. Ironicus
7. Bodemeister

I am sure most will consider this a strange list of sires, but I will try to explain it over time.

This introduction is posted 10 minutes before the first horse hits the track. I wish were in Florida, they just announced free coffee and doughnuts.

Please forgive all the typos, bad grammar and worse punctuation. I have little ability to proofread my own writing. Sorry.