Buying A Race Horse

Let’s move Centennial Farms to the top of the partnership list. Since their minimum investment is about $50,000, that spot might be honorary, but it is well deserved.

I had a great conversation with Centennial Farms founder Don Little. Centennial moves to the top of my list because of their long-term approach. They have almost no interest in two year old racing, and are focused on developing their horses more slowly. I believe this is the best approach. If I were doing things myself, this would be my strategy. The other partnerships have slightly too much of a “let’s be ready for Saratoga or Del Mar” attitude is most of their selections. Centennial is now my model of how things should be done.

Centennial’s strategy shows up in their selections:

1. Gun Runner by a Bodemeister mare (with a stamina oriented extended family)
2. Nyquist by a Ghostzapper mare (with an AP Indy 2nd dam)
3. Honor Code by a Smart Strike mare (2nd dam is multiple G1 winner My Flag)
4. Street Sense by a The Factor mare (with a blue blood extended family)

There is no hint of Cox/Crow “let’s stretch out a miler with speed and hope they can maybe get a classic distance”, to be found in this group of horses.

I am not ready to make a $50,000 investment right now, but if Centennial were offering a $10,000 minimum I would be signing up today.

This is an update after looking at all 50+ websites.

A few move up significantly. Centennial has put together a nice package of four horses. They are expensive, but well worth thinking about. Two little guys that move up are Blue Streak Racing with a recent Point of Entry purchase, and Basset Stables with a reasonable Maclean’s Music offering.

1. Dare to Dream – got me to the winner’s circle with Quick Tempo, did not buy yearlings
2. West Point – came very close with Connect colt, still available
3. Eclipse – came very close with Air Force Blue filly, bought a racing 2 yr old
4. Blue Streak – I want to learn more about Point of Entry filly
5. Horseplayers Racing Club – still thinking about Summer Front yearling
6. Ironhorse – very nice Connect filly, lower fees?, maybe
7. Little Red Feather – did buy a Midnight Storm to think about, not up yet
8. Centennial – very nice four horse package, and a Unified offering
9. Donegal – love their approach, execution was only ok
10. Pewter – bought some bargains to think about, low fees
11. Basset Stables – offering a Maclean’s Music, but with sprinter dam
12. Pocket Aces – will think about their Mastery purchase
13. Zilla – love their claiming work, their Nyquist yearling was ok
14. Kenwood Racing – great success at Monmouth
15. Country Life – watching for LDK purchase at FTOCT
16. Victory Racing – solid Connect yearling offerz
17. Funky Munky – will think about their new Mineshaft buy
18. Don’t Tell My Wife – interesting buys, need to lean more
19. MyRacehorse.com – positives and negatives – will think about their Frosted buy, new horses not up yet
20. Hibiscus – did not buy yearlings, my Tonalist still recovering
21. Final Furlong – missed their Summer Front
22. Ten Strike – not sure if they bought more than two yearlings, monitor
23. Bourbon Lane – not thrilled by what they bought
24. Starlight – underwhelmed, by there expensive “pedigree light” approach
25. Bloodlines Racing – sold out, will watch next year
26. Crown’s Way – nothing new
27. Dream Maker Racing – 2yr old Noble Mission still not named???
28. Wasabi Ventures – 2 yr olds not working yet? bought 2 at FTOCT, watch
29. DreamTeam Racing – Effenix filly starting to work
30. Brilliant – on mailing list, only training sales?
31. Top Hat – remain confused
32. Team Valor – non-US only
33. Live Your Dream – still selling a book
34. Taste of Victory – Bowlmaggedon still not working
35. UTCB – no current offerings, but interesting concept
36. Bona Venture – seems inactive
37. Let’s Go Stable – remain confused by this website
38. American Classic – offering 2 yr old with no works
39. Beach Haven – just one horse
40. Slam Dunk Racing – no current offers
41. Hidden Brook Farm – not sure what they are offering
42. Magdelena – what is McPeek doing?
43. Country Life Farm – mid-Atlantic sires
44. Churchill Downs Racing Club – bought nice AFB
45. Paradise Racing Stables – $200 Old Topper Cal-bred
46. Snowy Sunset -need to evaluate
47. Trainers – Moger, Bond, Cibelli, Greenhill and how many more
48. Drawing Away Stable – claiming only
49. Blinker’s On – claiming only
50. Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons – claiming only
51. Bradley Thoroughbreds – no offers
52. Bush Racing – $250 claiming partnerships in MD
53. Winners Circle – trotters

The stats remained about the same, average $24,000, median $13,000, and RNA + withdrawals about 40%. The only partnerships that bought horses were Pewter Stables and Wasabi Ventures. A group called Country Life Farm paid $92,000 for a Lemon Drop Kid I was interested in. It is possible this could become a partnership horse.

If I had been a real buyer, this would have been a disappointing day. This time all 10 of the horses I liked made it to the ring, but 5 were RNA’s, including my 3 favorites. It is a little difficult to execute a “value” strategy if no one will sell you a horse. Of the 5 that sold, 2 were well above my price range.

My key horse in this sale was hip #571:

Midnight Storm – Suzee Sunrise by Chester House

I really liked the stamina influence in the dam’s pedigree, but even though the bidding got to $55,000, the horse was still and RNA. Maybe if I had bid $60,000 in the real world I would be the real owner, but maybe I waited through the whole sale for a horse the consigner had no interest in selling.

If I gone in with budget of $25,000 I would have bought hip #509:

Midnight Storm – Deborah’s Moment by Lemon Drop Kid for $14,000

I would be thrilled to walk out with this horse. It is exactly what I am looking for. Both the dam and 2nd dam were runners and producers. So for a low budget, i would have been very excited with the results.

If my budget had been higher would have waited for #571 and been disappointed. It is tough when your top choice is so late in the sale. If I had taken a 2nd choice early, it would have been:

Noble Mission – Style Show by Red Ransom for $30,000.

This turf oriented filly is bred to run 1 1/2 miles. Maybe this should have been my focus, but that is 20/20 hindsight.

I still do not fully understand the role of the these later sales. It would have been hard to wait through Keeneland to find value here. Then I just learned that another 500 yearlings will be sold at Ocala next week. Can any one person really look at all these horses?

I think that 90% of what I am writing about can be summarized into trying to answer these 5 big questions:

Yearlings or 2 Year Olds?

I can see the positives and negatives of both strategies. In theory, I like having the control of developing the horses at a slower pace. In practice the lower risk approach of seeing a horse run before you buy it, might be more realistic.

I understand the issues better, but I am no closer to answering this question.

Partnerships or Do It Yourself?

Obviously, partnerships are much easier, and allow you to spread your money over more horses. Partnerships allow you to participate in more expensive horses that have more realistic chances of winning big races. Can the “little guy” even hope to compete without a team of experts? However, the partnerships “markup” each horse by 50-100% to cover their costs of doing business. You need an extensive lists of industry contacts, bloodstock agents, vets, trainers, and farms, to do it yourself.

I lean toward doing it myself, but remember I am a semi-crazy, arrogant bastard, control freak, who hates doing anything in a conventional manner.

What Is Your Expected Loss?

If you pick the right horse you could make 5x your investment, but you could also buy a yearling that never races. The potential returns and risks are significant. The unanswered question is what is your “expected loss percentage” over a longer time period. It might be as low as -20%, it could be as high as -60%. Nobody is going to tell you the answer to this question. In a perfect world there would be clear disclosure, but we live in a very imperfect world where this number is closely guarded. I will attempted to make the best estimate I can.

While I fear the average loss is at least -50%, but maybe it can be mitigated by making good choices. That is why I am writing this blog.

Speed – Balanced – Stamina?

What kind of horse should you buy? If you buy a speed oriented horse you potentially get the excitement of 2 year old stakes racing before your horse gets hurt. A balanced horse seems like it makes the most sense, but you pay a premium price for these horses. Stamina oriented horses come at a discount, but you must have extreme patience. You also have to be comfortable not buying what the “cool kids” are buying.

I lean strongly toward the stamina approach, because I think it might yield a better return, but I realize many folks will disagree.

What Is The Right Price Point?

Starlight bought 30 horses at Keeneland with a median price of $400,000. Mark Schwartz bought a $5,000 Wicked Strong colt at Ocala and almost won a stakes race in October. You can buy 5% of a nice portfolio of horses from Ten Strike or Donegal for $50,0000, or you can buy 2% of a $25,000 horse from Pewter. Or you can watch the sales and play “fantasy horse racing”, just like I have been doing for the last four months.

This is still a great mystery. Cheap horses eat the same amount each day as their expensive brothers. I hope that the low end of the market is viable, but I fear the $75,000 to $100,000 price point is more realistic.

Conclusion

I understand this blog can be quite confusing most of the time. Buying race horses is a complex business with dozens of different issues.

To simplify matters, focus on the point that 90% of what I am trying to do is answer these 5 questions.

You do have to get used to all the abbreviations for the different sales. This was really like day 13 of the Keeneland sale. The average was $24,000 and the median was $15,000. The topper was a $160,000 son of Cupid. The buyback+withdrawal rate was still 40%.

I have 10 horses I am interested in on the second day, let’s see how many get to the ring.

Only 1 of the 50 top partnerships participated. You have to love the folks at Pewter Stables, they just keep plugging away with cheaper horses. They bought 3 for a total of $55,000. One was a Violence I will think about.

The Sackatoga guys bought two nice NY-breds. They bought a Fast Anna for $92,000, and a Central Banker for $70,000. Both had solid stamina oriented female families. I really like Jack Knowlton’s taste in horses.

The good news is that Swiss Skydiver was hip #2997 at Keeneland two years ago. She sold for only $35,000. For bargain hunters like me this is extremely encouraging. You can buy a great horse for less than $50,000 at a Keeneland yearling sale.

“Cheap horses can win” is very important point that must be emphasized. Bob Baffert and his parade of $1,000,000 horses got beat by a commoner.

I guess you have to cheer for Kenny McPeek. He is very active at the sales. He bought 25 horses at the recent Keeneland sales. Most must be for his private clients. McPeek does operate somiethng called Magdelena Partners, which is a group that has won many races over the years. There is a slight hint that the partnerships might get the “second choices”, but it will be fascinating to see what Magdelena offers over the next few months. I will be watching with great interest.

The Really Bad News

The last two “classic” races have been won by an Into Mischief and a Daredevil of all things. If you wanted to create a horse to win a 3f stakes race in March you might try breeding Daredevil to a Johannesburg mare (Swiss Skydiver’s cross).

Into Mischief’s finished 1-2 in the Bourbon, prepping for the BC Juvenile and Laoban’s (by Uncle Mo) ran very well in other juvenile stakes.

It is raining Cox/Crow, sprinter/milers, precocious beasts. The plodders are nowhere to be found, even with the calendar being turned back so the classic races were later in the year.

To be fair, let’s remember that Tiz the Law is a great grandson of AP Indy, and the son of a Tiznow mare, and a Go for Gin second dam. That is still plodder/plodder.

Who will win the Derby in two years? Maybe it will be a son of Lord Nelson (the ultimate sprinter sire), like the one Ten Strike paid $400,000+ for. At least the Runhappy train seems to have crashed.

The battle of speed/precocious/sprinter/milers vs plodders/stamina will continue to be fought in future auctions. I guess I should be thrilled that plodders will be even cheaper next spring in Ocala.

What would you rather have?

A single trailer with your bright and shiny $500,000 Into Mischief colt.

or

a fleet of trailers loaded with 2 Honor Code’s, 2 Orbs, 2 Dialed In’s, 2 Tonalists, 2 Midnight Storm’s, and 2 Summer Front’s.

Think very carefully before you answer that question.

The Into Mischief colt might give you a .5% chance of winning the Derby, but the average return on that colt might be about 40%, compared to say 75% from the cheaper group of horses.

If I had to guess why Barry Irwin of Team Valor chose to leave US racing, it just might be that the speed horses are just too damn expensive at the US auctions. They give you a better chance to win, but the overall returns are just too low.

You might think that selling 5,000+ yearlings in Lexington was enough. Yet somehow today they will sell another 500+ at Timonium. Maybe 50-60% are NY, MD, VA, and PA breds, but there are plenty of Kentucky breds. Why a Kentucky bred would go to this sale is something I do not understand. Maybe some local breeders are just to lazy to drive the extra miles?

There are some decent horses. It will be interesting to see if any of the partnerships participate.

I am interested in the following:

1. there are 2 nice Midnight Storm’s late in the sale #509 and #571. Will these sell for less $50,000? I would hope so.
2. there are 2 nice turf fillies, #263 a Big Blue Kitten, and #375 a Noble Mission
3. there is a great “what if I am wrong” horse, # 432 a Unified out of a solid running and producing Lemon Drop Kid mare
4. maybe I will try to learn some of the mid-Atlantic sires if I see some smart buyers participate

It feels like there might be some bargains here. Maybe this sales is better than being in day 12 at Keeneland. Let’s watch and find out.

Now that the yearlings sales are done let’s rank the partnerships one more time.

This is my most comprehensive list yet

1. Dare to Dream – got me to the winner’s circle with Quick Tempo, did not buy yearlings
2. West Point – came very close with Connect colt
3. Eclipse – came very close with Air Force Blue filly
4. Ironhorse – very nice Connect filly, lower fees?, maybe
5. Little Red Feather – did buy a Midnight Storm to think about
6. Donegal – love their approach, execution was only ok
7. Pewter – bought some bargains to think about, low fees
8. Pocket Aces – will think about their Mastery purchase
9. Zilla – love their claiming work, their Nyquist yearling was ok
10. Kenwood Racing – great success at Monmouth
11. Victory Racing – solid Connect yearling offer
12. Horseplayers Racing Club – still thinking about Summer Front yearling
13. Funky Munky – will think about their new Mineshaft buy
14. Don’t Tell My Wife – interesting buys, need to lean more
15. MyRacehorse.com – positives and negatives – will think about their Frosted buy
16. Hibiscus – did not buy yearlings, my Tonalist still recovering
17. Final Furlong – missed their Summer Front
18. Ten Strike – not sure if they bought more than two yearlings
19. Centennial – not thrilled by what they bought
20. Bourbon Lane – not thrilled by what they bought
21. Starlight – underwhelmed, by there expensive “pedigree light” approach
22. Bloodlines Racing – sold out, will watch next year
23. Crown’s Way need to revisit
24. Dream Maker Racing – 2yr old Noble Mission still not named???
25. Wasabi Ventures – 2 yr olds not working yet?
26. Basset Stables – offering a Maclean’s Music, but with sprinter dam
27. DreamTeam Racing – Effenix filly not named yet?
28. Brilliant – on mailing list, only training sales?
29. Top Hat – remain confused
30. Blue Streak – need to review
31. Team Valor – non-US only
32. Live Your Dream – still selling a book
33. Taste of Victory – Bowlmaggedon still not working
34. UTCB – no current offerings, but interesting concept
35. Bona Venture – seems inactive
36. Let’s Go Stable – remain confused by this website
37. American Classic – offering 2 yr old with no works
38. Beach Haven – just one horse
39. Slam Dunk Racing – no current offers
40. Hidden Brook Farm – not sure what they are offering
41. Magdelena – what is McPeek doing?
42. Country Life Farm – mid-Atlantic sires
43. Churchill Downs Racing Club – bought nice AFB
44. Paradise Racing Stables – $200 Old Topper Cal-bred
45. Snowy Sunset -need to evaluate
46. Trainers – Moger, Bond, Cibelli, Greenhill and how many more
47. Drawing Away Stable – claiming only
48. Blinker’s On – claiming only
49. Sunny Jim Fitsimmons – claiming only
50. Bradley Thoroughbreds – no offers
51. Bush Racing – $250 claiming partnerships in MD
52. Winners Circle – trotters

Another small partnership to evaluate is Victory Racing Partners. They are located in the unlikely Marietta, Georgia, but seem to have East Coast roots. Victory also is offering part of a California Chrome 2-yr old, and even some older horses. They have existing horses with Pletcher and Asmussen.

Victory bought two reasonable horses at the recent Keeneland sale. Of most interest to me is a Connect colt they bought for $60,000. They have a nice website that clearly offers 1% for $1,750. This includes all expenses through June of 2021 plus insurance.

The mare was a hard knocking Parx $15,000 claimer, that was 1st or 2nd in 16 of 30 starts mostly routing. This is her first foal. The 2nd dam was a decent Broken Vow winner. The nick is rated A. The horse looks good just standing there, very similar to the West Point Connect.

This is a deal worth considering. If I were not waiting until next year, it might even be a top 5 offer.

Victory also paid a cool $215,000 for Street Sense filly. That a big buy for a small operation. They are offering 1% for for $3,570. The mare is a one win daughter of Ghostzapper, who produced a $130,000 winner from her first foal. It is a A++ nick.

These are two very serious race horses that I will be watching with interest.

Just as I was starting this blog, Barry Irwin of Team Valor was announcing that they were withdrawing from racing in the United States. Mr. Irwin made some comments about drug issues, but also discussed economics.

In one interview he said he was changing his business model to buying already successful horses. The implication is he was not thrilled by the yearlings sales anymore. Team Valor was very successful with Animal Kingdom, but it would be interesting to review their recent results. That is a project for another day. I have asked to be added to their mailing list, let’s see what happens.

Team Valor presents a table on their website:

Click to access Syndicate-master-web2018.pdf

It purports to show the stakes wins by various partnership between 2009 and the end of 2018. The most interesting thing is the number of operations no longer offering partnerships.

1. Team Valor – not buy US horses
2. IEAH – defunct after a spectacular crash
3. Peachtree – cannot find a website
4. Woodford – still buying horses, but not offering partnerships
5. Sovereign – website not working
6. Class Racing – website not found
7. Karakorum – was a complete fraud
8. Blinkers On – claiming only
9. Dogwood – acquired by Eclipse
10. Elite Racing – even has long Wikipedia page, but no longer exists
11. Bongo – cannot find
12. Horizon – cannot find
13. Legends – cannot find
14. Parting Glass – now called Dream Maker
15. Starview – website very old
16. Sackatoga – not taking new partners

When 16 of the 22 names on the Team Valor list are no longer functioning, it makes you worry about the viability of the business.

I will need to learn more about some of this history.

My first claim, Judicial Restraint, ran a poor 3rd even after being dropped to a $16,000 nw2 lifetime by Chad. That is not a good sign. However, on the drop we was claimed in the real world by Linda Rice. Let’s see if she can work her magic.

My other two claimers Ames Mister and Royal Suspect are working out, but not running.

It has been surprising I cannot find more claiming ideas. Even the Zilla guys have been inactive since Saratoga ended.

I am tempted to claim a turf horse, Noble Mischief off poor Keith O’Brien today at Belmont. He is by Noble Mission, and has run two 60 Beyers, but with winter coming fast it might not be the best time to be claiming turf horses.

Wesley Ward stretched out a nice Air Force One filly, Guana Cay, in one of the first dirt 1 1/16 races for two year olds. That a good sigh that AFB can route and run on dirt.

I guess I will try Max Player at the end of my pick 5. I am no fan of Asmussen, or Paco, but I have to stick with my Honor Code call. He should still be getting better.

I will be cheering for Tom Drury and Art Collector, but not betting on him at 3-1.

I will be happy if anyone beats Baffert.

When you find a stock you really like, you look to see which other portfolio managers own that stock. Then you look down the list of the other stocks they own. Professional money managers do this every day to find new ideas.

Starting today one of my new racing hero’s is:

Travis Swan Murphy

He trains at Prairie Meadows. He was a solid 6 for 31, with horses he owns this year and 26 for 165 over the last four years.

He came to the Keeneland sale and bought 10 horses. The most expensive was the $17,000 Orb mentioned in the previous post. He even had the courage to buy 3 Runhappy’s. I will keep an eye on this motley crew.

Actually his other horses look like sprinters, but I will watch anyway.

There are a few other trainers that I will keep an eye on:

Dan Pita (Gulfstream), bought 7 at medium size prices

Austin Gustafson (Canterbury, Lone Star), bought 6

Antonio Sano (Gulfstream) bought 10

Tim McCanna (Golden Gate) bought 5

Very few people want to think about Orb. His yearlings plummeted to an average of $12,000 this year, down from $53,000 just two years ago. Of the 14 in the Keeneland sale, 12 got sold. Most other sires had many more withdrawals, and RNA’s. Nobody want’s to own these.

Orb has produced only one graded winner (Sippican Harbour), and this is now his fourth crop.

He remains a son of Malibu Moon, with the dam side contributing Unbridled and Cox’s Ridge.

Maybe we should abandon all hope.

But value guys cannot do that, we have to dig in and look a little harder. Orb is at the top of my “dirty dozen” list of hated sires.

I guess my favorite is:

Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- $29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag. B+ nick

But I also like:

Orb – Brusquer by Elusive Quality – $17,000, lots of stamina pedigree on the dam side, an A++ nick, purchased by Prairie Meadows trainer Travis Murphy.

Maybe this is trying too hard to find value, the sample size is already pretty large.

My new racing hero is the unknown Mark Schwartz. Before this year, as an owner he was 0 for 24, mostly at Penn National. Then at Ocala this spring he bought a Wicked Strong colt for $5,000. He named the horse Brooklyn Strong, and BS won at first asking in Delaware.

Yesterday Brooklyn Strong showed up in the major leagues. He ran in a $100,000 NY-bred stakes race at Belmont. He broke slow, but ran a decent race, running 3rd a few lengths behind the winner. Maggie had nice thinks to say about his appearance in the paddock. He looks like a two turn horse. He is out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare that ran some decent allowance races, and ran in the Santa Anita Oaks. He worked an unremarkable 10.2 at Ocala. The dam has produced two $100,000 winners. The 2nd dam is by Thunder Gulch.

In many ways this is my model for next year’s Ocala sale:

1. third tier sire, maybe under $10,000
2. average work
3. sneaky good dam racing record
4. strong dam sire
5. strong stamina oriented 2nd dam
6. longer looking body
7. all for under $10,000

Maybe you can find gold “in them thar hills”.

They had a maiden race at Belmont yesterday with unusual conditions. It was limited to horses that sold for less than $45,000 at there last sale. I saw this condition for the first time last year. This year Eclipse folks mentioned these races when they bought a Mshawish colt for less than $40,000 at a two year old sale.

What was stunning is that the race conditions also allowed horses that had been RNAed for $45,000 or less. I guess racing secretaries want full fields, but this seems to promote bad behavior. Maybe I am just a cynical bastard, but why encourage breeders/consigners to set artificial reserves.

The fact that you can only buy a horse if you “overpay” is by far the most discouraging part of the entire sale process. I have already seen too many examples of decent horses not meeting reserves or being withdrawn, and then being raced by their breeders.

Why even think about Australian sprinters? Because sons of Medaglia d’Oro have the possibility of of stretching out to two turns. I liked the Vancouver’s at the two year old sales, but there were only 5 yearlings sold at Keeneland.

I wish I understood the Australian pedigree a little better, but let’s assume it’s ok. The funny thing is most of the Astern were bred to sprinter/miler female families. One that was not is:

Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch

This filly is by the same cross as Mshawish. Most pinhookers are scared to death of the word Thunder in any pedigree. The Web Carroll Training Center grabbed her for just $21,000. I think that is a very reasonable speculation.

The other interesting Astern is a purchase of Bond Racing from Fasig-Tipton. The paid $50,000. The dam is a daughter of Mineshaft, and the 2nd dam is the nice filly Meagan’s Bluff. This cross is rated A++ because it produced the the nice horse Enticed.

Astern – Canaryinacage by Mineshaft

If you are a Medagalia d’Oro believer, and I am, these are interesting horses.

I never really thought about the question – Who is your favorite horse of all time?

I am a long shot player that has never made a win bet at less than 5-1 in my entire life. I am cheering for any long shot that beat Baffert, Pletcher, and Brown, but such horses seldom become the type of horse you “follow” and cheer for.

I guess the one famous horse that I really cheered for was Lemon Drop Kid. He was trained by Scotty Schulhofer, not the killers. I know I had him to win the Belmont at 29-1. He had that long distance euro-pedigree of Kingmambo and Nureyev. It was even more exciting when Mr Farish agreed to a “foal-sharing” deal and agreed to breed LDK with my friends champion mare Biogio’s Rose. Waiting for that horse was 3 years of excitement, but she got hurt and only ran two races.

I guess you could call LDK’s stud career as solid, but not outstanding. He has produced many decent runners, but not a “signature” horse. Maybe Beach Patrol who won $2 million, and now stands in Japan was close.

Maybe we should try to find the final son of LDK before it is too late.

1. Lemon Drop Kid – Grant Park by Action This Day (son of Kris S that adds Roberto and Ribot to the pedigree), B+ nick
2. Lemon Drop Kid – Giant Review by Giant’s Causeway (second dam sire is Pleasant Tap), B nick
3. Lemon Drop Kid – Gottcha Last by Pleasant Tap (dam produced American Freedom)

Let’s stop right there. Black Stone Farm paid $40,000 for #3.

How can I not love a son of LDK from a Pleasant Tap mare that has produced an interesting new stallion american Freedom (and a $900,000 winner Gottcha Gold).

If I had just said “pick your favorite sire” and “mix it with your favorite female family” this would have been my horse.

This is the ultimate “breed a plodder to plodder” and be patient and see what happens. Maybe this is the final great son of LDK, or maybe it is a claimer at Penn National.

There is one freshman sire that I want think about some more.

American Freedom is a son of Pulpit and a grandson of AP Indy. His pedigree is interesting because his dam is by my favorite stamina influence Pleasant Tap. Mom was a solid two turn small stakes runner. The second dam was by Preakness winner Elocutionist.

American Freedom did not run until April of his 3-yr old season. He won the Iowa Derby (G3) wire to wire, and was second in the Travers to Arrogate, second to Exaggerator in the Haskell. He was trained by Bob Baffert.

American Freedom stands at Airdrie Stud, which has had recent success with “offbeat” sires like Cairo Prince and Upstart.

American Freedom foals sold pretty well. Overall 46 sold for an average of $35,000, and a median of $23,000. That is better than Tonalist or Carpe Diem, or many other second tier sires.

A group called Redwings attempted to “corner the market” at the FT sales by paying $160,000 for an American Freedom and then buying another for $87,000. Wesley Ward bought one at FT for $50,000. Marquee paid $110,000 for one. Michael Pender bought one for $40,000.

At Keeneland an American Freedom sold for $100,000,, and then two more for $85,000 and $60,000. All of these had very sprint oriented female sides, so there must be some folks who think these horse will be precocious at the 2-yr old training sales next year. Remember that sons of Pulpit can be precocious sprinters.

Because I am an arrogant bastard I am going to try to find some American Freedom’s with some stamina on the dam side.

1. American Freedom – Runaway in Love by Runaway Groom (Travers winner), A nick
2. American Freedom – Same Cross by Proud Citizen (sire of 2 Oaks winners), A nick
3. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado (sire of Medaglia d’Oro and Kitten’s Joy) A nick

I will stop right here and immediately promote #3 to one of my favorite bargain horses from the whole sale. Cool Hill Farm paid $24,000 for this daughter of American Freedom. Cool Hill has won 13 of 64 races mostly in West Virginia. Right now she is long shot choice for the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, or at least a nice allowance race at Charlestown.

Until I wrote that last post I never really thought about the group of sires this way.

The Living Superstars

There are 9 active sires with stud fees of $100,000 or above

There are 34 active sires that are an attempt to “knock-off” the superstars

The Deceased Superstars

There are 3 recently deceased superstars (AP Indy, Giant’s Causeway, Unbridled Song)

There are 17 active sires that are an attempt to knock-off these 3

The Stars

There are 9 active sires with stud fees of $50,000 or more, but less than $100,000

There are are 14 active sires that are an attempt to knock-off the stars

The Independents

These guy are not Superstars or Stars, or their Knock-offs

1. Blame
2. Broken Vow
3. Hard Spun
4. Tiznow
5. Kantharos
6. Run Happy
7. English Channel
8. Lemon Drop Kid
9. Upstart
10. Noble Mission
11. Looking at Lucky
12. Tale of the Cat
13. Street Boss
14. Dialed In
15. Bayern
16. Sky Mesa
17. Midnight Lute
18. Karokontie
19. Flintshire
20. Competitive Edge
21. Macho Uno
22. Mr Speaker
23. Lord Nelson
24. American Freedom
25. Bal a Bali

I do not have have any dramatic conclusions to draw from this exercise. It is just a way to think about current group of active sires.

1. Pioneerof the Nile- Midnight Storm, Cairo Prince, Classic Empire, American Pharoah
2. Medaglia d’Oro – Mshawish, Violence, Vancouver, Astern
3. Tapit – Tonalist, Frosted, Tapiture, Mohayman, Cupid, Anchor Down, Tapizar ,Constitution
4. Curlin – Connect, Palace Malice, Keen Ice, Exaggerator
5. AP Indy – Honor Code, Bernardini, Flatter, Mineshaft, Congrats, Take Charge Indy
6. Candy Ride – Twirling Candy, Gun Runner, Mastery, Unified
7. War Front – Summer Front, Air Force Blue, Declaration of War, The Factor
8. Unbridled’s Song – Liam’s Map, Arrogate, Midshipman, Will Take Charge, Cross Traffic
9. Giant’s Causeway – Carpe Diem, Not This Time, Brody’s Cause, Creative Cause, Fed Biz, First Samurai
10. Quality Road – Klimt
11. Uncle Mo – Nyquist, Outwork, Laoban
12. Into Mischief – Practical Joke, Goldencents

These are all the $100,000+ sires, and their cheaper alternatives, ranked according to their relative value.

The main 9 (two are deceased) are too expensive. Every year there are yearlings sold at well under 1x the stud fee by these sires. So far, I have been ignoring these horses. Maybe I should try to learn to evaluate these “problem” horses, but not right now I will continue to ignore them.

The next group is the over $50,000 crowd, again in my order of perceived value

1. Union Rags –
2. Street Sense –
3. Malibu Moon – Gormley, Orb
4. Kitten’s Joy – Big Blue Kitten
5. Ghostzapper – Shamen Ghost
6. Empire Maker – Bodemeister, Sky Kingdom
7. Distorted Humor – Maclean’s Music, Ironicus, Khozan, Jimmy Creed
8. Speightstown – Munnings, Speightster, Central Banker, Daredevil
9. More Than Ready –

Let’s do another sire ranking after the sales. Some sires will fall out of my ranking because they just did not have many horses available in the sale (i.e. Shamen Ghost, Vancouver). Other drop out because their collection of mares was not interesting. Some advance in my rankings because they are getting cheaper

1. Midnight Storm – Pioneerof the Nile for $10,000, turf, stamina, and durability
2. Gormley – got some action at the sale, my speed horse
3. Point of Entry – my favorite turf horse, son of Dynaformer
4. Summer Front – sneaky good turf and dirt
5. Maclean’ Music – will Jackie’s Warrior go two turn, I think so
6. Tonalist – still my favoritre pedigree, average yearling price -50%
7. Connect – son of Curlin, love the West Point and Ironhorse selections
8. Twirling Candy – not thrilled by the mares bred to him
9. Honor Code – average yearling falls from $76,000 to $48,000
10. Air Force Blue – I still think he can go two turns, Eclipse dove in
11. Dialed In – getting better mares. has a BC contender
12. Noble Mission – still holding out hope for son of Galileo
13. Frosted – average price -50%, the value is now
14. Cairo Prince – stretching for turf ability, maybe getting better mares
15. Union Rags – my Unicorn, now my favorite expensive sire, avg. -45%
16. Tapiture – getting better mares?
17. Lemon Drop Kid – old reliable
18. Palace Malice – still holding out hope
19. Blame – boring but solid
20. Orb – the favorite of my “dirty dozen”

“Value” investors are always attracted to a good car crash, and there none more spectacular than Runhappy.

His average yearling price fell from $223,000 to $47,000 and the median from $200,000 to just $41,000. The early racing results have been poor. Of course, the unending hype has not helped matters.

Let’s remember that Runhappy did not make to the races until late December of his 2-yr old season. His father, Super Saver, is now working in Turkey because his foals did not perform at the 2-yr old sales. Runhappy’s mom did not make to the races until March of her 3-yr old season (and never ran better than a 76 fig anyway).

Is every sprinter precocious? Most are, but not all.

It is easy to give up on Mad Mac the mattress salesmen, and everyone did. Scan the list Runhappy buyers at Keeneland this year and you will not recognize many names (look at the 2019 list you find China Horse, Robert Low, Maverick, Courtlandt, and Spendthrift all paid mroe than $400,000). The only name I know for this year is Pewter Stable that bought one for just $20,000. I nominate them for “value pick of the year”.

If you pointed a large gun at my head I would choose #2118 a Runhappy filly out a Stephen Got Even mare (Cowgirl Lucky) that produced 6 winners. The second dam is by Woodman. This is an A rated nick. I give Gayla Rankin a special award for courage for spending $50,000.

I do not like to invest in sprinters, but I must admit I am kind of cheering for poor Runhappy now. Would I actually buy one? I will at least think about the one Pewter bought.

One real reason to write this blog is to stay organized. I just realized their might be other public partnerships not on the Ownerview.com list. Here are some more that I found:

This is just from goggling “horse racing partnerships”

1. Slam Dunk Racing (California)
2. UTCB Stud (a confusing website)
3. Final Furlong
4. Hidden Brook
5. Ed Moger (how many other trainers have there own partnerships?)
6. James Bond
7. Jeff Greenhill
8. Bloom Racing Stable (very confusing website)

This is the first 10 pages of Google. At this point you start to get little partnerships like Alberta Stables. I am not sure I have found all the partnerships, but I think I have most of the larger ones.

Remember that not all partnerships are open to the public. Often a group of friends pool money and call it XYZ Partners. That does not mean they are looking for outside investors. The most famous of these is Sackatoga Partners. They are not looking for new money. I am also not looking at claiming partnerships at the moment.

It is my goal to give the little guys a chance. However, if I cannot find you, I cannot evaluate what you are doing.

Now that the sales are over, I need to keep learning. So I will begin to review the results of various sires and eventually come up with even a better sire ranking list.

Could Frosted be 2020’s most undervalued sire? Maybe.

Last year 74 Frosted yearlings sold for an average of $219,000 and a median of $165,000, this year those stats plummeted to 46 yearlings selling for an average of $82,000 and a median of $65,000.

That is a significant decline. There were indications of that decline at the Ocala sale, when the top Frosted brought only $185,000, and the median was only $100,000. There were 2 $240,000 RNA’s.

How much of the decline is caused by 2020 racing results? The Darley website will tell you that Frosted is the first sire to have 3 two year old horses run 80 Beyers. Two Frosted’s have been named TDN rising stars based off maiden performances, but did not run well in their next race. Can you really judge performance based on a few moths of results?

Maybe it is not results but fashion that is more important. Constitution is this year favorite son of Pulpit for obvious reasons,

Should “value” investors have been stepping in?

West Point bought the third most expensive Frosted this year for only $225,000, and MyRacehorse.com bought the second most expensive. Ironhorse also stepped up and bought one for $150,000. Will these turn out to be bargains?

Frosted was bred to a strange collection of mares. Almost all seemed to add precocity. My favorite was hip #376, where the 2nd dam was the producer of Tonalist. The buyer of this horse was Slam Dunk racing. Which creates a whole new problem, because it turns out that Slam Dunk is a partnership operation not on the Ownerview.com list of over 70 partnership.

How many other public partnerships are not on the Ownerview list?

Stay tuned.

Back to Frosted. Maybe he was just over-hyped last year. Everyone remembers his 14 length win in the Met Mile. He has plenty of pedigree. He is out of a solid G2 winner Deputy Minister mare, and the 2nd and 3rd dams bring in Seattle Slew and Roberto. I have a nagging feeling that this might have been a good year to be buying Frosted’s.

Ironhosre Racing Stable has 10% left in the Connect filly the bought at Keeneland. They are offering 5% for $4,000. Those with sharp pencils can see this is a “no markup” offer. They estimate for a 5% share monthly cost will be $225-$250, that comes to $2,700 – $3,000 annually. I assume they take x% of the winnings and maybe any final sale, but right now I do not know that percentage.

Is this a less expensive approach than West Point or Eclipse? The answer is it most likely is less expensive, but I don’t not have all the details right now.

Ironhorse will have Bill Mott as the trainer. Ironhorse has been racing since 2007 and has roughly a 15% win percentage. Their big horse was Bucchero, a $900,000+ winner of two G2 turf sprints. He ran in the Breeders Cup and at Ascot. Ironhorse is managed by a guy that runs a successful financial planning business full time.

Let’s think about the filly.

Connect was my third favorite freshman sire. He got a late start, but then won the Pennsylvania Derby and Cigar Mile. As a son of Curlin by a Holy Bull mare, Connect has enough stamina influence for my taste.

The filly is out of a Jump Start mare. Jump Start was a precocious son of AP Indy, he won the Saratoga Special, was 5th in the Hopeful, and 2nd in the Champagne, and then was vanned of in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He never ran again. Jump Start has been solid as a Mid-Atlantic sire that produced many good two turn horses.

The dam, Aye d’Eclaire was a claiming sprinter at Laurel that never ran a fig faster than 75. This is her second foal, her first foal has not yet been named. The second dam was by Awesome Again, she was a $35,000 claiming sprinter. She did produce a $500,000 winning router.

TrueNicks give this mating a B. I think this is an ok, but not great, pedigree.

If I were spending money on yearlings this year, this would be an offer to consider very seriously, but for right now I am waiting until next year. I also want to learn more about Ironhorse’s financial model. I give them credit for choosing a second tier sire, and respect what they did buying Bucchero for less than $50,000.

Sorry, I just have to do one more list.

Maybe I have gotten too carried away with my group of second tier sires, maybe what I really should be doing is going down to third tier sires. In trying to compete with the Donegal and Ten Strike yearling portfolios, I may have gotten away from a real value approach.

Here I want to consider a group of sires that almost nobody really likes, that sold at least 10 horses at Keeneland.

For the most part this list will elicit only a yawn from most observers. They all have solid stamina credentials.

1. Midshipman
2. Will Take Charge
3. Orb
4. Super Saver (to Turkey)
5. Bodemeister (to TurkeyI
6. Mucho Macho Man
7. Mineshaft
8. Looking at Lucky
9. Lea
10. Creative Cause
11. Bayern

Let’s try to find their best offspring in the $20-$40, price range:

1. Midshipman – Wow Me Free by Menifee – $17,000 – dam and 2nd dam were solid runners and producers. A+ nick
2. Will Take Charge – Berncredit – $37,000 – dam and 2nd dam were winners and G3 producers. A nick
3. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai – $29,000 – 2nd dam ware $1 million earner, G1 winner, My Flag, B+ nick
4. Super Saver – Steidle by Petionville – $15,000 – 2nd dam producer of G1 winner Princess of Sylmar, A nick
5. Bodemeister – Jax El by Unusual Heat – $20,000 dam and 2nd dam both G2 producers, B+ nick
6. Mucho Macho Man – Marseillaise by Speightown – $20,000 – 2nd dam a G2 winner, B+ nick
7. Mineshaft – Taste’s Classylady by Afleet Alex – $30,0000 – Funky Munky Stable purchase
8. Tiznow – Wynning is Sweet by Candy Ride – $40,000 Don’t Tell My Wife Stable purchase
9. Looking At Lucky – Miss Sammy by Tale of Ekati – $25,000 Pewter Stable purchase
10. Lea – Fiercely by Hard Spun $40,000 – Al Rashid purchase, 2nd dam Dynaformer
11. Creative Cause – Robi Jo by Lemon Drop Kid – $21,000 – first and second dam’s are winners and producers, B+ nick
12. Bayern – Bridey’ Frolic by Unbridled Song – $21,000 – 2nd dam $300,000 winner and producer

This is a very solid group of horses. Maybe this is a more realistic strategy. All of these sires have some small positives, and are very much “under the radar”.

On the other had if these horse cost $30,000 to break and train, they might not really be a bargain.

Let’s try to make some sense of the results now that the yearling sales are complete.

General Conclusions:

1. Its all about recent performance Constitution, Into Mischief were the big winners
2. Speed sells – compare Unified and Cupid to Keen Ice
3. There is a lack of turf sires – Kitten’s Joy was a big winner
4. Freshmen sell – I think most would say the new class did well
5. Runhappy and Frosted were the big losers
6. The average decline was -20% to -30%

Sire	# sold	20 avg	20 med	19 avg	19 med	comment
TOP
Into Mischief	77	422	375	326	285	the winner
Uncle Mo	47	284	220	308	245	steady
Tapit	27	401	300	472	350	slight decline
Curlin	36	342	323	583	470	the loser
Medaglia d’Oro	22	560	437	491	400	good
Quality Road	38	355	285	322	325	steady
American Pharoah	42	253	200	385	210	decline
Candy Ride	41	196	165	205	150	steady
War Front	15	338	325	541	500	big decline
Speightstown	29	202	150	215	158	steady
FRESHMAN
Arrogate	39	239	200
Gun Runner	44	256	200
Practical Joke	72	127	100
Mastery	60	145	103
Classic Empire	58	98	70
Klimt	70	31	20
Midnight Storm	24	52	31
Gormley	47	44	30
Connect	49	57	35
Unified	45	54	30
Keen Ice	41	15	5
Cupid	54	46	30
2nd SEASON
Frosted	46	82	65	219	160	big loser
Nyquist	54	181	140	225	220	some decline
Not This Time	34	129	46	63	38	big winner
Runhappy	26	47	41	222	200	giant loser
Exaggerator	56	26	13	85	55	big loser
Tonalist	34	18	11	49	30	big loser
VETERAN
Street Sense	47	114	100	169	125	decline
Distorted Humor	36	116	80	140	100	decline
Munnings	31	89	80	70	50	small winner
Kantharos	47	54	40	79	70	decline
Union Rags	41	112	75	204	140	big decline
Blame	37	65	32	60	35	steady
OF INTEREST
Honor Code	46	47	26	75	41	big decline
Twirling Candy	29	84	45	94	70	avg ok
Air Force Blue	26	54	43	90	55	decline
Summer Front	21	42	8	33	13	avg up
Point of Entry	22	29	20	38	23	some decline
Kitten’s Joy	26	151	83	86	43	winner
Dialed In	44	46	26	57	35	decline
Maclean’s Music	38	58	33	55	35	steady
Cairo Prince	46	52	25	48	32	steady
Constitution	39	152	115	88	50	big winner

What have I accomplished in the first four months of this blog:

1. I have learned that writing almost every day really helps you think through the critical issues. Even if nobody ever read this blog, I have increased my level of learning dramatically.
2. I have watched both 2 yr-old in training sales and yearling sales, and have a better idea of the advantages and disadvantages of each.
3. I have started to develop a “feel” for the pricing at each type of sale
4. I have started to develop a list of undervalued and overvalued sires
5. I have begun to learn about different pedigree strategies
6. I have begun to watch about 30 different partnership groups, and learn about their different approaches.
7. I am much better prepared to evaluate the offers made by different partnerships
8. I continue to compare my “stamina first” approach to a more speed oriented strategy
9. I have a cute name for this adventure – Quixote Racing Stable
10. I have 2-3% of 4 real horses, one which has already won a race
11. I selected, Get Her Number, a grade 1 winner, and BC runner from, my first sale in Ocala

What else do I have to learn:

1. I have had many great telephone conversations, but COVID has prevented me from meeting more of the people involved
2. I need to be better at judging horses physical appearance
3. I want to learn more about some of the analytics used, i.e. stride length and heart scores
4. I need to learn more about different breeders/consigners

By now I am sure the readers are tired of my endless lists. I want to bring the yearling sales to a conclusion right here. If I eventually decide that yearlings are the best place to invest I face a distinct choice –

1. Invest is a group of yearlings through a partnership like Donegal, Ten Strike, Starlight, Centennial, or Bourbon Lane.
2. Invest in a few individual horses through West Point, Eclipse, or any of the smaller partnerships.
3. Try to find the correct strategy to find an individual horse to buy at FT or Keeneland.

Right now for 2020 that choice would be:

1. by into 5% of the Donegal Partnership for about $50,000
2. buy 5% of West Point’s Connect colt, by 3% of Starlight’s Air Force Blue filly, and maybe 3% of Ironhorse’s Connect colt, all total this would be about $50,000
3. pick the best strategy, and buy one real horse

Those five strategies to choose from are:

1. find the best turf oriented filly
2. find the best young, undervalued sire
3. find a speed oriented more “modern” sire
4. find the best freshman sire
5. choose an alternative strategy, either unicorn or Cox/Crow

At either at $50,000 or $25,000 price point those 5 strategies lead to 10 horses:

1. f – Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini – $50,000 – turf filly
2. f – Cairo Price – Sing Lady Sing by Scat Daddy – $25,000 – turf filly
3. c – Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado – $40,000 – undervalued sire
4. c – Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – $27,000 – undervalued sire
5. c – Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – $60,000 – speed sire
6. f – Gormley – Lady Siphonica by Siphon – $20,000 – speed sire
7. f – Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – $35,000 – freshman sire
8. c – Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – $15,000 – freshman sire
9. f – Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – $50,000 – unicorn strategy
10. c – Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – $50,000 – “what if I am wrong”/Cox-Crow strategy

In the real world these horse would need another $20,000 to $40,000 to break and prepare for the races.

After watching all the expensive horses getting sold it is easy to conclude that the second tier is nothing but junk. That would be a poor conclusion. Last years Juvenile Filly winner British Idiom was a $40,000 yearling purchase,

These are the 10 key horses from the yearling sales.

In my initial lists I included some more expensive horses to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike, but in the real world I am not going to build a $1,000,000 partnership next year.

In the real world I could come to the yearling sales and buy a horse like the ten listed above next year, or more likely in 2022.

There are two other viable strategies that I considered. The first is my “unicorn” strategy where I try to recreate Union Rags. This strategy requires a very strong 2nd dam to add stamina to an otherwise sprinter/miler pedigree. Go back and look at the pedigree of Union Rags, one of very few horses to win a sprint stakes at 2, and the Belmont the next year.

#602 at Keeneland was my best example of this strategy. Mastery is a speed oriented freshman sire. The mare is by Exchange Rate, who brings that Danzig speed, just like in Union Rags. She was a solid allowance turf miler. Most importantly the 2nd dam is by my favorite stamina sire Dynaformer. She won $200,000 and was graded stakes placed.

This is my favorite unicorn. Bantry Farms bought her for $60,000.

The other viable strategy to consider is what I call “what if I am wrong”. In this strategy we use the Cox/Crow strategy of starting with a miler sire, and trying to stretch him out to a classic distance.

The sires I chose were Practical Joke, Mastery, Unified, Violence, and Munnings,

#133 at FT would have been a great pick. This is a son of Unified. Unified is a son of Candy Ride, out of a Dixie Union mare. He got 9f winning the Peter Pan, but came back the next year to almost win the Carter at 7f. By both pedigree and performance he is clearly a speed horse. The dam of Hip #133 is by AP Indy. The second dam was $1 million winner Balletto who was 2nd in the Personal Ensign, Shuvee, and Breeders Cup Juvenile. The 3rd dam was by the great Nijinsky. I cannot imagine a more stamina orient female pedigree. He was born May 12th.

Ken McPeek bought this horse for $50,000 and I think this horse is an excellent example of the “what if I am wrong” or Cox/Crow strategy.

Another viable strategy would be to pick the best available 2nd tier freshmen sires. We were not going to be able to afford Arrogate, Classic Empire, or Gun Runner, so what was left? My favorite was Midnight Storm. He was durable, turf or dirt, and could run 1 1/4 miles. He is a son of Pioneerof the Nile, adding interesting pedigree with Bertrando on the dam side.

What would have happened if Midnight Storm were our starting point? Let’s get back in the time machine and see:

#185 at FT – I would have been thrilled to buy this filly by Midnight Storm out of a Ghostzapper mare. Mom was not much of a runner, never getting a fig above 75. She has already produced a multiple graded stakes winner, and another $100,000 winner. The 2nd dam was by Hansel, one of my favorite stamina influences. The second dam was a $300,000 winner and a multiple graded stakes producer. Hip #185 was born May 31st, scaring away all known pinhookers.

The horse sold for only $35,000. This was my favorite buy in either sale. I could not find another Midnight Storm for under $25,000 in either sale. Six sold for that price, but none met my standards. Gormley was my second favorite freshman sire, but we handled that in the previous post.

My third favorite freshmen is Connect. Connect is a late developing son of Curlin that won the Cigar Mile and Pennsylvania Derby. West Point bought a very interesting Connect early in the sale, and I knew there was a similar horse on the last day

#4247 – This son of Connect is out of a Vindication mare, the same cross as Exaggerator. Mom was not much of a runner, but has produced two winners. The second dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on the turf.

For only $15,000 this horse was a great bargain. Could I really have waited through 5000 horses and grabbed this one? If my budget was $25,000 this horse would have been a standout worth waiting for.

The first four horses I selected were all bred to run 1 1/2 miles, and would probably be 10 lengths back in any race at 1 1/16th miles.

I can hear the cry now – “please give me some speed”, please find me a “modern” horse

I will not give in and recommend an Into Mischief, Speightstown, or even Candy Ride, but I will try to find some speed. The only way I can feel comfortable doing it is with freshman sire Gormley. He stands at Spendthrift for only $7,500.

Gormley is a son of Malibu Moon, but the mare was Bernstein/Storm Cat so he gets some precocity there. Gormley broke his maiden September 2 at Del Mar at 6 1/2 furlongs, running right near the lead. He then won the Frontrunner wire to wire at a mile. He bobbled at the start, but was only 3 lengths back in the Breeders Cup Juvenile to Classic Empire, and was 5 lengths back of a quick pace (46.2) in a field of 20 in the Kentucky Derby. He was not a pure speed horse, but he certainly had tactical speed. He was precocious.

This is as close to a speed horse that I can get. Gormley’s second dam’s sire was Kingmambo, so he has an interesting pedigree. Let’s find some bargains:

#192 at Fasig-Tipton – This daughter of Gormley is from a Siphon mare that was bred to run all day and produced a $500,000 winner. For a price of only $20,000 Parrish Farms got a great value. I would love to own this horse.

#2824 at Keeneland – This son of Gormley is by a modest runner that was sired by my favorite broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. The mare produced 6 winners from 7 foals. This is a B+ nick. A group called 5 O’clock Somewhere paid only $60,000. If I had to buy a speed horse,d this would be my choice.

Six other Gormley’s sold for and average of $125,000, so I am not the only one looking at this sire.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

If you pointed a gun at my head and force me to choose a existing miler/precocious sire i guess in would be Violence. For $25,000 you get a son of Medaglia d’Oro that might go two turns with the proper mare. Let’s see what we can do for $50,000 and $25,000.

Still working on this

I think the previous post was a very useful exercise. Let’s do the same thing, but for dirt horses of either gender.

Let’s consider a Maclean’s Music a special situation since he only had one start. If we throw out the $40,000+ sires, and all the freshmen sires, we get the following list:

1. Tonalist
2. Palace Malice
3. Dialed In
4. Honor Code
5. Tapiture

Let’s get back in the time machine and try again with the same process:

#202 – I would have loved this Tonalist colt out and Thunder Gulch mare, but he was RNAed for $35,000. I will watch for him at future sales.

The horses by these sires were too expensive at the FT sales. Let’s move on to Keeneland.

#968 – I would certainly selected this son of Honor Code for only $40,000. With Honor AP not running that well in the Derby, there was value here. The mare ran a 99 Equibase fig at 1 1/16 miles in her short career. She was by El Prado out a Strike the Gold mare. The second dam produced long running Borrego. This is an A nick.

This is almost a TGTBT horse, but for $40,000 I would take the chance. If you believe in long distance pedigree you have to love this horse.

#1673 – This son of Dialed In is from a Awesome Again mare that was only an ok runner, but she produced 3 very nice horses. The 2nd dam was by 1 1/2 running Sky Classic. This is a B nick. The buyer was Antonio Sano, who trained another son of Dialed In named Guenavera. He paid only $27,000.

Both of these horses were great bargains at the Keeneland sale. If I were to choose a dirt strategy, these would be my to favorites.

There were a couple of Tonalist’s that I liked, but they had more turf pedigree.

Now that I have determined my best strategy, let’s try to apply it to the sales that just occurred.

This is realistically the one horse I would have selected if I had decided to take this strategy to the sales.

Let’s look at under $50,000 and under $25,000.

My initial sire list would be:

1. Point of Entry
2. Summer Front
3. Noble Mission
4. maybe Air Force Blue
5. maybe Tourist
6. maybe Cairo Prince, with lots of turf in he dam

Let’s take the time machine back to the Fasig-Tipton sale and sit down with a bag of $50,000 under our seat. This is supposed to be a “select” sale so maybe we should not expect to buy a horse here. Let’s see what happens.

hip #24 – I might have been done right here with a nice Noble Mission that meets all the other criteria, but it’s a colt. Has the advantage of being a NY bred

#185 – I might have take this Midnight Storm, but the dam is more dirt than turf

#294 – I might have tempted by this Air force Blue at $50,000 but the dam’s pedigree is unusual

#373 – This Point of Entry filly would have been very tempting, but the mare was unraced and her production has been marginal. This would be a B prospect.

I would have left the FT sale feeling I got kind of close to buying a horse, but I knew there were 4500 a week later. I am not expecting anything in my price range early at Keeneland, but I take my brown paper bag of cash and wait a week at the Holiday Inn.

I would have been bored for the first three days of Keeneland, but then:

#1187 – This was the horse of my dreams. It was RNAed for $45,000, but I would have held the consigner hostage until he sold it to me privately for $50,000. It was a Summer Front out of a Street Cry mare. The mare won $45,000, but produced million dollar winner Street Band. The 2nd dam, by The Minstrel, was a stakes runner and producer in Europe. This is my dream horse.

#1588 – This would be my $50,000 horse. Maybe I would have had to outbid the real buyer WSS Racing. This is a Summer Front filly out a three race Bernardini mare. She did run a 90 Equibase fig in her second race for Bill Mott. Bernardini is a top 10 broodmare sire. The second dam, by Affirmed, is the producer of $2 million dollar winner Honey Ryder, and several other nice horses. The pedigree could not be better. The nick is rated B and in similar to current runner Halladay. She is a March 10th foal.

I would be thrilled to leave Lexington with this horse. I would be happy to have her babies even if she could not run.

#2768 – If my budget had only been $25,000, I would have been thrilled to leave with this horse. She is a daughter of Cairo Prince out of a Scat Daddy mare. The mare only won $38,000, but the second dam was 3rd in the G2 Hollywood Oaks, and produced a very nice horse, Social Inclusion, who set a NCR at Gulfstream for 1 1/16. She is a May 7th foal. The nick is not rated because this outcross has not been tried very often.

I will admit the picking were a little thin. I did not have a lot of fourth and fifth choices. I might have forced to go with a colt later in the sale.

I think this was a very realistic exercise of what might have happened at an actual sale of I had a $50,000 budget. Maybe I could have gotten #1187 with an extra $5,000, or maybe the real bidders would have forced me much higher on the other 2.

If I had lost all my fillies, I would have outbid Tim McCanna for #3488 he piad $18,000 for this Point of Entry colt, or maybe even #3500

Now that we have actually experienced a yearling sale, let’s try pick the best strategy. If I had this to do all over again and pick just one strategy:

1. I think I would lean toward taking a filly. They might have a little less downside risk because they might have value as a mare. You also do not have to pay the “he could be a sire” premium that colts attract.
2. I think I would lean toward a turf horse. They might be a little more durable, and pedigree might be a little more important.
3. I think I would narrow to 3-4 sires, but not to just one. Focus might be the best strategy, but having a wider range of choices seems even more important.
4. I think the 2nd through 4th year sires might be the sweet spot, I want to use short-term negative sentiment to find bargains.
5. I think I would focus on the under $50,000 market, but I cannot rule out the under $25,000 market. This is a really tough call.
6. I think I would focus on the $10,000 – $20,000 sire range
7. I certainly want stamina influences in both the sire and dam, and I care nothing about precocity.
8. I guess I would prefer a late foaling date to scare away pinhookers
9. I think I would still prefer some ability and pedigree in the dam. Maybe the big guys can just look at a horse and decide it is a runner. I think I want something a little more tangible. However, maybe I should be willing to accept a poor running dam, if the rest of the pedigree is what I want. In fact, maybe that is exactly what I should be looking for. Maybe the sweet spot is a solid runner without “stakes credentials”
10. I would prefer a horse with an above average “nick”.

Before we choose the best strategy to select a yearling, let’s try to list all the different possibilites:

Sex:

1. colt
2. filly
3. either is fine

By sire:

1. looking for a specific sire
2. looking for a range of sire (maybe 5 or 10)
3. looking at many sires with some exclusions
4. looking at all sires

By class number:

1. a freshman sire
2. a 2nd year sire, remember no one can see any physical results yet, but we have one year of sales results
3. a 3rd year sire,
4. a 4th year sire
5. an experienced sire
6. a very old sire

By popularity:

1. did the sire sell well at the last sale
2. did the sire sell about average at the last sale
3. did the sire sell below average at the last sale

By racing results:

We could try to further divide this by 2-yr old, 3-yr old, and older

1. has the sire had racing results that were above average
2. has the sire had racing results that were average
3. Has the sire had racing results that were below average

What is the best way to measure racing results?

By percocity:

1. does the sire produce above average 2-yr olds
2. does the sire produce average 2-yr olds
3. does the sire produce more late developing horses

By stamina:

1. does the sire produce sprinters
2. does the sire produce milers
3. does the sire produce classic distance horses
4. is the sire hard to categorize

Maybe this is the same as percocity, but it might not always be the same

By date of birth:

1. January and February foals
2. March foals
3. April and May foals

Should this even be a concern?

By price range:

1. over $200,000
2. over $100,000
3. over $50,000
4. over $25,000
5. under $25,000

By sire stud fee:

1. Over $50,000
2. the $40,000 – 50,000 range
3. the $20,000 – $25,00 range
4. the $10,000 – $15,000 range

By multiple of stud fee paid:

1. paying more than 5x
2. paying 3-5x
3. paying less than 3x

By racing ability of the dam:

1. an above average runner
2. an average runner
3. a below average runner
4. only a few races
5. unraced

How to best measure ability – stakes level, money earned, speed figure

By the production quality of the dam:

1. has produced good runners
2. has produced average runners
3. has produced bad runners
4. has only a few foals
5. first foal

Again how should we measure quality?

By the quality of the dam’s sire:

1. above average
2. average
3. below average

By the expected surface of the foal:

1. dirt
2. turf
3. a horse that might due either

By the identity of the breeder/consigner:

1. big operation
2. medium size operation
3. small operation

By the physical appearance of the horse:

1. above average looks
2. average looks
3. I guess someone could go looking for “problem” horses

Sex:

1. colt
2. filly
3. either one

After the Ocala sale I also went back to last year’s Keeneland sale and pick a group of yearling to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike.

Let’s see how these more expensive horses are doing:

Despite the expensive horses, the results are horrible. This shows the risk in yearling sales. maybe these horses have been slowed by COVID, or maybe they are just bad.

1. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker by Kingmambo 25% of $375 – not working
2. The Honorable One – Honor Code by Tiznow 20% of $600 – working at Golden Gate
3. Prize Fighter – Frosted by Medaglia de Oro 50% of $260 – not working
4. Victory March – Maclean’s Music by Pleasant Tap 50% of $210, not working
5. Lemonata – Carpe Diem by Lemon Drop Kid 50% of $200 – not working
6. Warn – Declaration of War by Arch 25% of $140, not working
7. Shirelle – Point of Entry by Consolidator 25% of $150 (a Parcells buy), 3rd in MSW at Saratoga, Brown
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music by Jump Start 100% of $30 – working in Indiana
9. LaTourista – Tourist by Broken Vow 100% of $30 – 2nd in 3 starts at Prairie Meadows, Murphy

Inspired by a $40,000 Flashback yearling that became a BC champion, lets build a portfolio of cheaper yearlings. These are not the cheapest, I want to pay 2x to 5 x for these horses. I will look for horses bought by people who want to race them, not pinhook them. These are all from the September Keeneland sale.

At least most of these horses are working, but the results are still poor so far

1. Aikman – Carpe Diem – $25,000 – Danial Pita – not working
2. Big Big Plans – Point of Entry – $17,000 – Nick Gonzales – MC. winner, had the lead in G1 Natalama faded to 7th
3. Whistlers Style – Tonalist – $55,000 – Frank Lewkowitz – working at Los Alamitos
4. Star Mission – Noble Mission – $27,000 – Ken McPeek – 2 bad MSWs at Gulfstream
5. God’s Pick – Summer Front – $13,000 – Weldon Johnson, working at Remington
6. LaTourista – Tourist – $30,000 – Travis Murphy – 2nd in 3 starts at Prairie Meadows, Murphy
7. Spanish Rider – Ironicus – $14,000 – Red Stable, not working
8. Thunderstruck – Maclean’s Music – $30,000 – Jeff Greenhill – working in Indiana
9. not known – Bayern – $35,000 – Emblem Stables (dam=Dynagreen) – Unnamed
10. Elle Est Forte – Flintshire $50,000 – GBW Racing – working at Chrurchill

This is a high risk strategy. Let’s see how it works. All of these are “slow” horses with lots of distance pedigree on the dam side.

Let’s review what we bought at Timonium:

The results here are not as good.

2 second in MSW, 2 working, 4 named not working, and 1 unnamed. The Twirling Candy’s are taking time to get to the races.

1. Blame – c – Little Sandy by Speightstown – 3/29 – sf 97 – 2w – 10.2 – $100,000 – named Blame it on Brutas, not working
2. Orb – f – -Grassy Nellie by Belong to Me – 2/28 – sf 96 – 3w – 10.1 – $50,000, – named Rev Rita, working at Del Mar
3. Bodemeister – Seemingly by Orientate – 5/31 -sf 95 – 2w – 10.2 – $20,000 – Named Dennard, not working

I will add 3 horses from the final day of the sale to help monitor 3 sires I want to learn more about. The first horse is my favorite from either of the two sales at any price. Over 20 years ago Chuck Zacney picked Afleet Alex out of this sale for $75,000. Today he picked this Twirling Candy for $175,000. I love the pedigree on the female side, and I am warming up to Twirling Candy. Sold for less than 5x despite a fast work and a late birthday

1. Twirling Candy – f – Who’s Cozy by Cozzene – 5/17 – sf 99 – 2w – 10.1 – $175,000 –unnamed
2. Exaggerator – f – Flash of Wonder by Tiz Wonderful – 4/28 – sf 80 – 10.2 – $80,000 – named Color of Dawn, 2nd in MSW at Churchill, winner MSW Keeneland, Cox
3. Noble Mission – f – Colour Party (IRE) by Invincible Spirit – 2/18 – 10.2 – $40,000 – Named Jokers Run, 2nd MSW Woodbine, de Paulo

With the 20 from Ocala, that brings the imaginary stable to 26 horses, plus the one claimer. The Ocala sale is in 3 weeks. There is no rest for the wicked.

1. #1008 from Ocala – Twirling Candy – Even Song by Street Cry – $75,000 – bought by the smart guys at Exline Racing – named Dream Shake, working at SA
2. #105 from Timonium – Twirling Candy – Margarita Friday by Johannesburg – $100,000 – bought by Liz Crow the agent for Ten Strike among others – named Lambeau Lady, working at Laurel, winner MSW at Laurel
3. #64 from Timonium – Twirling Candy – Kiamika by With Approval – $85,000 – bought by Mark Glatt as agent for ????, this is my favorite – named Just About Enough, not working

I “bought”, or really selected, the following 20 horses at the Ocala sale in June

I know one is headed to the Breeder’s Cup, let’s check in on the group:

1 grade 1 winner, 1 winner at Delaware, 3 with decent maiden tries, 11 working before first maiden race, 1 named not working, 3 unnamed

Given these horses were selected because they were slower developing stamina oriented horses I am not discouraged by the results so far.

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 – named Mr. Cline, working at Arlington
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100 – named Cane Creek Road, 4th Churchill MC
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40 – named Starship Skywalker, not working
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65 – named Avisse, 3rd in MSW at Del Mar, O’Neil
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30 – Named Risky Reward, winner MSW at Churchill, Walsh
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35 – named Shea D Summer, small stake winner at Gulfstream
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17 – named Tap Dance Fever, 3rd at Delaware MC, Bennett, working at Tampa
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47 – named Quick Gold, working at Tampa Bay
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30 – named Whatmakessammyrun, winner at Belmont, Weaver
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20 – named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd in MSW at Woodbine
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6 – named Brooklyn Strong, winner of small stake at Belmont
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110 – named Midnight Choir, 4th at Belmont, Thomas
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20 – named Rittenhouse, working at Monmouth
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25 – unamed, Zacney Racing
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200 – named Chaos Reigns, Ellis, working at SA
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6 – unnamed
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15 -, Mike’s Lady, 4th at Hawthorne, Reavis
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65 – named Jeebar, bullet at Gulfstream
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47 – named Get Her Number, winner G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125 – named Nurturing, 6th at Del Mar

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Before the Ocala sale started, but after the workouts, I did the post below.

Of the 12 horses selected, 7 sold, 3 were withdrawn, and 2 were RNAed.

Of the 7 sold, 1 is a winner, 2 have run solid maiden races, and 2 are working steadily without a race, 1 is named but not working, and 1 is unnamed.

Of the 3 withdrawn horses, 2 are already winners, and 1 is unnamed.

The 2 RNA horses have not yet worked.

The fact that 2 of the 3 withdrawn after working horses have already won a race makes me pretty damn angry. This is a subject we will continue to revisit.

12 Colts to Win the 2021 Derby, or at Least an Allowance Race at Turfway

would love to buy each of these colts at 5x their stud fee, but I would certainly pay 10x. For the top 5 I might even go 20x.

There were 14 works of 9.4 and 100 10.0, there were also 34 works of 20.4 or faster. That is 148 horses that had fast works (1315 total, but only 800 worked). Last year 128 horses sold for $200,000 or more at this sale.

The basic theme is second tier sires, with solid route running mares, and an above average workout.

1. #762 – Sky Mesa by Distorted Humor (2nd dam by Dynaformer). I did not start out looking for Sky Mesa’s, but found an excellent TDN article about “value sires”. Sky Mesa is the grandson of AP Indy through Pulpit. I found an solid 21.1 work, for a May foal. Mom ran a 102 speed figures at 1 1/2 mile for Tom Proctor in a small stakes race at Keenland. Sky Mesa is a $15,000 fee. I also love the other 5 horses consigned by Coastal Equine, a pinhooker. Sold for $19,000 as a yearling. Named Too Legit, winner at Woodbine
2. # 589 – Bodemiester by Kitten’s Joy (2nd dam by Woodman). Bodemeister is another “value sire”, who has been shipped to Turkey. That should not excite many buyers. Bodemiester is the son of Empire Maker, and grandson of Unbridled. He had a very solid 21 flat work. Mom ran a 95 speed fig for Wayne Catalano at 1 and 1/16 at Arlington. The second dam produced 3 graded stakes winners. Dam was bred to Uncle Mo her first year. Bodemiester fee was $15,000 – Named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd at Woodbine
3. #348 – Creative Cause by Grand Lodge. Creative Cause (a son of Giant’s Causeway, Grand Lodge won several 1 1/2 Irish G1’s) sired Pavel out an unraced Maria’s Mon mare. The work was a solid 21.1. Mom of 348 was a small time winner is Australia, but was bred for much better. She produced a solid winner with Exchange Rate. The second dam was a G2 winner at a distance, and produced a G2 winner. Creative Cause stands for $15,000. Sold for $35,000 as a yearling. Named Creative Boys, not working
4. #1205 – Bayern by Jeblar. Everyone is down on Bayern’s, but I will give him another chance. The work was a very quick 20.4 . Mom was a solid long distance Tampa and Delaware allowance horse (ran 85’s). She producer a Multiple graded winner Jeranimo by Congaree. Bayern stands for $15,000. Sold for $75,000 as a yearling. Named Cane Creek Road, working at Ellis
5. #1155 – Carpe Diem by Street Cry. I am a believer in the Carpe Diem story . He was a great looking $1,000,000 yearling whose career was cut short by injury. Mom ran solid 85″s at Laural. She produced a solid winner by Bernardini.. The second dam is by His Majesty. The work was a solid 21. April foal. Sold as a weanling for $220,000. This one might be too expensive. The backup might be 937 the mare ran a 101 speed figure in her short career. From a Seeking the Gold son. Sold for $30,000 as a yearling. Or maybe 1313 at the end – $72,000 RNA, unnamed
6. #340 – Social Inclusion by Lemon Drop Kid. Social Inclusion is a little known son of Pioneerof the Nile. He set a track record at Gulfstream, and was 3rd in the Preakness. He stand for$5,000 in Pennslyvania. The dam was unraced, but her full sister was a stakes winner in Canada. The alternative is paying $500,000 for an American Pharoah colt. The work was a reasonable 21.2 April foal. – withdrawn, not named
7. #359 – Wicked Strong by Medaglia de Oro. Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy, and almost won the Travers. The mare won in England and was stakes placed in the U.S. She ran 96 speed figures 6 times. She produced 2 solid winners. Wicked Strong stands for $6,000. The work was an average 10.2. Consigned by the same woman as my #1 horse. Foaled in late April. Sold for $30,000 as a weanling – named Brooklyn Strong, winner in Delaware
8. #389 – Dialed In by Unbridled Song. Dialed In was Zito’s last good horse, winner of the Florida Derby. Dialed In is another “value sire” that is getting better mares. His stud fee was recently doubled to $20,000 because his yearling were selling so well. The mare ran a solid 85 speed figure and has produced a G2 placed runner at 1 1/8. – named Tiger, winner MSW at Gulfstream
9. #529 – Noble Mission by Smart Strike. The sire of Code of Honor is by Galileo and Sadler’s Wells. The dam set a NCR at Belmont for 1 1/4 on the turf. The second dam is G2 placed. The work was an ok 10.2. Stud fee is $20,000. Sold for $20,000 as a yearling. – unnamed
10. #1276 – Tonalist by Exchange Rate. Mare ran a 107 finishing second in the G2 Indiana Derby. Produced two solid winners. Work was a solid 21.1. Foaled May 19th. Sold for $115,000 as a yearling – named The Reds, nice 4th in MSW, needs longer, looks good
11. #351 – We Miss Artie- Stop laughing, We Miss Artie was a solid horse (Artie Schiller by a Fu Peg Mare) that Pletcher pushed too fast for Mr. Ramsey. This large and beautiful colt worked a solid 21.1. An April foal, We Miss Artie stands for $5,000. – named Whatmakessammyrun , 5th at Saratoga
12. #259 – Not This Time by Songandaprayer. There were 6 Not This Time’s with fast works, but I took and average work of 21.3. The mare ran 104 speed figures at Hollywood and produced a $150,000 winner. The second dam was a G2 winner. at 1 1/16. Sold for $100,000 as a yearling. – named Fire Group, not working

The basic strategy will be the same, but with fillies I might focus a little more on pedigreee and a little less on work out times.

I still want some long distance ability, and fillies from second tier sires. Maybe the price ranges should be a little less, but I still would prefer 5x, but be willing to pay 10x.

1. #162 – Point of Entry by Mt. Livermore (sire of the second dam is Kingmambo.) Point of Entry is the best available son of Dynaformer. This is clearly a 1 1/2 pedigree. The dam won a small stakes race with a speed figure of 100. She has produced a few winners. The work was a spectacular 21.1 for such a distance oriented pedigree. This is exactly the type of horse I would like to find. The stud fee is $15,000. I would have to be very disciplined not be the high bidder, even at 20x. April foal. As a yealing the filly RNAed at $44,000. – named Avisse 3rd at Del Mar
2. #326 Mshawish by Street Cry (the second dam sire is Sadler’s Wells). I hope Mshawish in the next great son of Medaglia de Oro. The dam is unraced, but the second dam was second in a long distance grade 1 turf race. The work was a solid 21.2. The stud fee is only $10,000. This would be a great buy for 5x. Sold for $32,000 as weanling. named Risky Reward, 2nd at Kentucky Downs MSW, Walsh
3. #13 – Carpe Diem by Sadler’s Wells. I am not sure sure if Carpe Diem is a turf horse, but if he is it will with this type of mare. Mom was unraced, but has produced a G2 placed turf filly by Tapit. The second dam is a multiple graded stakes winner. The filly was one of horses to work 3/8’s of a mile. The time was 33.2, the 5th fastest of the 13. The stud fee is $15,000. She sold for $25,000 as a yearling. named Killer Dress, working at Fair Hill
4. #274 – Temple City by Danzig. I am a big fan of Temple City. The mare was unplaced, but did produced the winner of the G3 Illinois Derby. The work was a solid 10.1, I would have preferred 2 furlongs. April foal. Temple City stands for $7,500. Sold as a yearling for $20,000 – named Amalfi Princess, 3rd at Kentucky Downs MSW
5. #485 -Ironicus by Hennessy. Ironicus is an interesting first crop sire. He was more of miler, but his pedigree suggests he could have gone longer. The mare was a $200,000 yearling purchase trained by Bobby Ribuado. Bobby was the trainer of my friend’s multiple graded stakes winning filly Biogio’s Rose, so I have followed all Ribuado’s horses carefully. She was a solid allowance horse for awhile and ran several 90 speed figures. The work was a quick 21.0. The stud fee is $5,000. I would love this for anything less than 10x April foal. named Quick Gold, working at Churchill
6. #997 – Summer Front by Empire Maker. This sire could get more attention if Ete Indien continues to run well. The mare was a solid allowance horse for Bill Mott, and was a $330,000 yearling purchase. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $10,000. This might really be my second favorite filly. – working at Gulfstream
7. #51 – Anchor Down by Majestic Warrior. Anchor was a fast miler, and a son of Tapit. The dam ran 80 speed figure in her first try, but then got hurt. The work was a solid 21.2, and the stud fee is 7,500. This is the first crop. Sold for $11,000 as a yearling. named Captured Prize, winner MSW in Puerto Rico
8. #262 Palace Malice by Grand Slam This son of Curlin has been getting some runners. The dam was unraced, but has produced 4 solid winners. Maybe this is trying to hard to get a classic sire. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $25,000 April foal. dam pilamaya – withdrawn
9. #1217 – Tourist by Pulpit Tourist is an interesting first year sire that could be either turf or dirt. The dam was not much, but has produced a solid stakes quality runner named Adonis Creed, who I have bet on several times. The work was a slow 10.3, but the familiarity with the female family is a plus. Tourist stands for $7,500. April foal. named Mike’s Lady, working at Arlington
10. #258 – Violence by Pioneering. Maybe I am trying to hard to find the best son of Medaglia de Oro, but he produces so many great looking horses. This mare set a NCR at Parx at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. She produced a solid winner. Fee is $25,000. April foal, The work was 21.2. RNAed for $45,000 as a yearling. named nurturing, work at Santa Anita
11. #1085 – Orb by Buddha. (Buddha was a son of Unbridled Song) Most have given up on Orb as a sire, but TDN calls him a “value sire”. The dam was a slow horse but has producer 5 winners from 5 foals, including a grade 1 winning turf miler, Valid Point. The work was a fast 21.1. Orb stands for $10,000. Sold as a yearling for $85,000. named Gathered Flowers, working at Fair Hill
12. #225 – Upstart by More than Ready. Upstart was Richie Violettes last good horse. His yearlings have been selling like hotcakes. The mare was slow, but produced a G3 placed colt in her first foal. The work was a slow 33.4, but maybe indicates she has stamina.Upstart stands for $10,000, but his yearlings sold for a median of $40,000 last year. This one sold for $25,000 as a yearling. I would be a buyer up to $50,000. named zoom up, working in Indiana

Get Her Number won the GI American Pharoah at Santa Anita, and is headed to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He put in a commanding performance leaving the $1,000,000 Starlight colt Spielberg in the dust. The pace was solid and Get Her Number just kept going.

Best I can tell Eclipse, West Point, Donegal, Starlight, Ten Strike, and a host of others do not have any $45,000 purchases headed to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. As we speak, Quixote Bloodstock is looking for new office space. Is there a futures book for the Kentucky Derby?

The answer is yes, some Caribbean book had Jackie’s Warrior at 33-1 and Spielberg at 66-1, but no action yet of Get Her Number.

What can we learn from Get Her Number:

1. He was sold at the Ocala 2-yr old in training sale, consigned by Wavertree
2. The breeder, Phil Robertson, is a small operation that produced at least one nice horse a few years ago, Argonne
3. He was one of the 20% of horses that worked 2f instead of just 1f
4. His work of 21.0 was above average, but 30 horses were faster
5. of the 9 Dialed In’s that sold in Ocala, 4 sold for more than $45,000, 3 for less
6. Dialed in was an “under the radar” leading fourth crop sire in 2019
7. Bernstein is an above average broodmare sire, combining stamina and precocity
8. the dam can be a scary slow horse, Fancier never got above a Equibase 75 fig – again this in the “negative result in first dam” approach to buying horses
9. the dam ran for a $5,000 tag at Delta Downs
10. The dam sold for $11,000 as a yearling
11. The dam had only produced one very slow offspring, this was her 2nd foal
12. The second dam by Fusaichi Pegasus and the third dam with Euro-pedigree added stamina
13. The nick of Dialed In and Storm Cat is rated A++
14. Peter Miller is an under-rated trainer of young horses

Or maybe this means that horse selection/breeding is a random number generator and any monkey throwing darts might pick a Breeder’s Cup horse just by accident.

The Keeneland sale concluded with the median price down about 21%, from $47,000 to $37,000, and the average fell the same 20% from $125,000 to $100,000.

Horses sold fell from 2,974 to 2,481. Without late withdrawals the median and average would have been lower.

After one day of the Fasig-Tipton sale a West Point guy told me it looked like horses were “25% cheaper” this year, and that estimate turned out to be very accurate.

How much of the drop can be attributed to COVID is impossible to estimate. The horse racing industry faces challenging economics even when everything is going smoothly. Handle has been ok even without live fans. Perhaps Congressional action on the Horse Racing Integrity Act will help, but the Libertarian in me worries about unintended consequences of federal rules. We have yet hear the outcome of federal charges against Servis and Navarro, that could be a short-term negative and a long-term positive. Recent announcements that lower level people involved in the scandal have pled guilty, could have ominous repercussions. At best the near term forecast is cloudy, maybe even with storms on the horizon.

Was this a good time to buy yearlings?

My prediction is next year average/median prices will be even lower. If prices bounce back 20% next year, my prediction will look silly. Forecasting economic conditions is a tricky business, forecasting the stock market is even more difficult, but it is all a part of the business of buying horses.

I try to play the horses to get away from the investment business, but I can’t escape.

“Just when I thought I was out — they pull me back in”

As I did the life of Cairo Prince, I realized I had never really thought the life and times of a sire. Consider the table below:

imp = inpregnated

crop

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

early

late

early

late

early

late

early

late

early

late

early

late

1st

imp

born

sold

race

2nd

imp

born

sold

race

3rd

imp

born

sold

race

4th

imp

born

sold

5th

imp

born

6th

imp

Stop and look again.

A new sire will impregnate his 5th crop BEFORE his first crop finishes their 3-yr old season.

It will be eight years until a crop is sold that reflects the group of mares bred to a sire after a full year of racing results.

That really is amazing.

There was no good reason to get away from Dialed In as a sire. I admit I got carried away with all the new shiny freshman sires that have never lost a race. I have had good results with Dialed In and should have continued to push this idea.

Let’s go back and find the two best Dialed In’s from the Keeneland sale:

1. #1398 – f – Dialed In – Home of the Blues by Street Cry – $130,000 DJ Stables
2. #1921 – c – Dialed In – Raspberry Jazz by Arch – $55,000 – Cres Ran

Who is this years Dialed In? I think it could be Cairo Prince. This is his first crop after his stud fee was raised to $25,000. Let’s see if the better mares help.

1. #585 – c – Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Casueway – $60,000 Al Fried
2. #1672 – c – Cairo Prince – Aspen Hilltop by Bernardini – $45,000 Shortleaf
3. #204 FT – c -Cairo Prince – Light of a Star by Muqtarib – $120,000 August Dawn

This could be coach Parcell’s Derby horse.

Just for practice lets review Cairo Prince’s life:

1. Holy Bubbette was the daughter Holy Bull and one losing race mare. She was bred by Richard Elam. She was 6 for 13 winning two small stakes and a top equibase fig of 107. She stopped racing in 2004. She had a Forestry filly in 2006 that won $86,000, and an Empire Maker filly in 2007 that won $127,000. Her next three foals never raced.
2. In 2010 she went to visit Pioneerof the Nile. On February 11, 2011 Cairo Prince was born. Mr. Elam took him to the Keeneland yearling sale and sold him for $250,00 in September 2012 to Namcook Stables.
3. CP breaks his maiden at first asking in October at Belmont. The owner of record is Paul Braveman, and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. He then wins the Nashua in November, and the Holy Bull in January 2104. He is forth in the Florida Derby, and never races again.
4. CP meets his first new girlfriends in early 2015 at Airdrie Stud. He charges $10,000 for his services. His first foals are born in early 2016, and are sold a yearlings in the fall of 2017.
5. Here is the tricky part. CP meets his second group of girlfriends while his first group is producing 120-150 babies. His second crop is being impregnated while his first crop is being delivered in early 2016.
6. CP meets his third group of girlfriends BEFORE his first crop is sold as yearlings
7. CP’s first crop of babies sell very well at the 2017 yearling sales averaging about $150,000. That is very impressive for a $10,000 sire.
8. CP meets his fourth group of girlfriends in early 2018. Some “prettier” girls arrive for this fourth group based on the sales results, but remember nobody has seen a race run by a CP offspring.
9. By the end of 2018 Cairo Prince is the third best freshman sire. His high priced babies run well enough including Royal Charlotte and Cairo Cat. Royal Charlottes’s mare had two unimpressive starts at Lone Star, and Cairo Cat’s mom was a $5,000 claimer at Penn National. CP had great racing results even though his first crop mares were horrible.
10. Even as CP meets his fifth group of girlfriends in early 2018, all the mare owners have seen is a few months of racing. CP’s fee is raised to $25,000. Maybe that scares some mare owners away. It is that fourth group that was at the sale last week. Impregnated in 2018, born in 2019, sold in 2020.
11. It could be the fifth crop which attracts the better mares, but it might even be the sixth crop.

You have to really sit down and think about the “flow” of mares to new sires. There is a lag that you have to think about very carefully.

One reason to write this blog is that many folks might not believe my stories if they were not written down.

When I sat down to write my first post on May 31st, I wrote down a list of 7 sires I was interested in. At the top of that list was Dialed In. I thought he was an under-appreciated stamina influence as a grandson son of AP Indy, and he might have been even a better horse if he had not been trained by Nick Zito (sorry Nick).

One week later I selected a son of Dialed In as one of the 20 horses I “bought” at the Ocala sale. I gave each of the horses an imaginary name and explained why I selected them. I called this colt Improver and wrote this post on June 15th:

IMPROVER

Dialed In is kind of a unique sire to me. Usually I am looking at sires were recent results are bad, so they are undervalued, i.e. Bayern or Carpe Diem. Dialed In is the reverse, his results have been good and getting better. His stud fee was increased to $20,000 and the story is he has been attracting better mares. Dialed In is a son of Mineshaft, and a grandson of AP Indy. He was Nick Zito’s last good horse. I wanted to try one improving stallion.

#1019 was a Dialed In out of frightfully slow mare. Fancier never ran better than 75 at Delta Downs. I would actually prefer an unraced mare to one that was this slow. However the is bunch of pedigree. Bernstein (son of Storm Cat) is a decent broodmare sire, I love the Fu Peg as the 2nd dam’s sire. I especially love all the European distance pedigree under the 3rd dam. So a bad runner, but a solid pedigree, lets call this dam marginally average.

Mix in a fast work 21.0 for an April 18th foal, and I am willing to go to 4x for sure. The hammer actually fell at $47,000, or only 2.3x. Call me a happy camper with that price.

Peter Miller agreed, and was the buyer in the real world for one of his owners. This horse might not be that exciting, but he is a very solid value.

Let’s call him:

Quixote’s Improver

When the real buyer, Gary Barber, gave the horse a real name it was Get Her Number. He broke his maiden on the turf at Del Mar in August going 5f and then got 4th in a small turf stakes race going 1 mile at Del mar.

Today he is the co-second choice in the Grade 1, American Pharoah Stakes. The favorite is a $1,000,000 Starlight yearling purchase named Spielberg. Mr. Barber and I “paid” just $47,000 in Ocala.

Get Her Number has every chance to be a better dirt horse than a turf horse, since Dialed In is not really a turf sire. With a win today and this horse will one of the favorites in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

If I told you I was going to pick the BC Juvenile winner out of the 1315 horses on sale at Ocala for under $50,000 you would have called me crazy. That’s why I am writing this all down.

Let’s rank the smaller partnerships performance at the yearling sales:

1. Ironhorse Racing – These guys bought 3 above average horses, all with good emphasis on stamina. They move right to the top of my list. Half is Enough, won at Monmouth, no races since September, Clararific working at Belmont, working in Tampa
2. Little Red Feather – They did buy a Midnight Storm late in the sale. That is not surprising since they owned Midnight Storm during his racing career. It was not the MS I would have picked, but it was an A++ nick. I will give it some thought. Became Sayers, not working
3. Don’t Tell My Wife Stable – These guys bought 3 interesting horses by Mastery, Candy Ride, and Tiznow. I will have to learn more. Epoch, decent race at SA, Miss Everything, 3 decent tries at SA, Candy Raid, Won MC at Ellis, at FG
4. Funky Munky – I really like the NY-bred Mineshaft that Richie bought. They only paid $30,000, and Mineshaft is a very unfashionable sire. Will consider. One Track Mine, one start in NY
5. Pocket Aces bought a $20,000 Mastery I will consider. Sophisticated, not working
6. Pewter bought 4, I will think about the Animal Kingdom. Mia Tosca, 2nd at Parx
7. MyRacehorse.com bought 14 horses, 10 with Spendthrift. None jumped off the page, but I will take a look at each.
8. Zilla – They took a big swing spending $200,000 for a Nyquist. I wish them well, but I just am not a Nyquist fan yet. Whisky Lullaby working in NY
9. Victory Racing bought a $215,000 Street Sense and a $60,000 Connect. I like the sire choices, but not the female families. Street Slayer not working, Fully Connected, three bad tries at FG
10. Starlight, Donegal, Bourbon Lane, Centennial, and Ten Strike will only offer horses as a group
11. Dare to Dream, Hibiscus, and many others chose not to play in the yearling game.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The best partnership horses:

1. Street Sense – Mia and Molly – $150 West Point
2. Connect – Vindy City – $120 West Point
3. Curlin – Isabella Signs – $350 Donegal
4. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda – $250 Eclipse
5. Curlin – Fifty Foot Woman – $310 Eclipse
6. Connect – Aye D’Claire by Jump Start – $80 Ironhorse
7. Union Rags – Mr Short Fuze by Zensational – $650,000 Lanni and Starlight, dam of Cloud Computing
8. Twirling Candy – Giant Win by Giant’s Causeway – $385,000 Lanni and Starlight
9. Mastery – Extravaganza by Elusive Quality – $60 – Don’t Tell My Wife
10. Nyquist – Soarwiththebirds by Giant’s Causeway – $200 Zilla Racing – KE8
11. Street Sense – Ghostslayer – $215 Victory Racing Partners
12. Connect – Love That by Forestry – $60 Victory Racing Partners
13. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance – $35 Ironhorse
14. Frosted – More Oats Please – $250,000 MyRacehorse.com
15. Klimt – Illusional Sky – $22 Pewter
16. Klimt – Buono Sera by Not For Love – $25 Pocket Aces Racing – KE8

I wrote a post 22 days ago stating that the big yearling sales were really a new beginning. When I started this blog before the June Ocala sale, I was really starting in the middle of the season.

With the two big yearling sales nearly concluded, what have I learned?

First, I am very happy I am writing this blog. Buying horses is a very complex subject, and if I were not writing this all I would have is a stack of scattered notes. Being forced to write modestly intelligible sentences has forced me to really think through various issues.

Second, and really most importantly, I can now respond to the offers of various partnerships with a much higher degree on confidence. Four months ago I did not really know what I was looking for, today I know exactly what I am looking for. That is a significant improvement. Does that mean I can magically pick the right horse? Of course not, but it does mean I can be happy with my choice when I finally make one.

I have learned about the frustration of late withdrawals and RNAs at these sales. To an investment guy it seems unfair that a horse can be offered, but then not sold if you do not pay “too much”. If you did all your due diligence on a stock, and decided to buy it, you would not be happy if it were suddenly not for sale. This frustration is real, and it means that one thing I have to learn more about is the reliability of various sellers.

From a practical point of view I was satisfied with the offerings of West Point and Eclipse. It would have exciting if they bought a Midnight Storm or a Gormley, or one of my top ten favorite sires (well Eclipse did buy an Air Force Blue, but paid too much). I was very close to buying the Connect that West Point was offering. The more I learned about Connect the more I liked, and Vindication/Seattle Slew on the dam side was also interesting. I also liked the Street Sense that WP had, and a few of the Eclipse horses as well.

I may live to regret not getting involved this year, but I have that nagging feeling that next year will be a better time to buy into a significant partnership. It was good to know I was very close this year.

It was also interesting to see the decent quality of horse you could find for $50,000 or less. If I had walked out of those two auctions with any of the 10 horses on my bargain list, I would have been very excited. I certainly do not yet have the relationships needed to break and prepare a yearling for racing, but someday I might.

Let’s just look at one:

Hip #185 at Fasig-Tipton was a son of Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper.

A week before the sale Elliot Walden of Winstar said Midnight Storm was one of his “under the radar” new sires. Winstar bought one for $180,000, but I found a filly I liked better for just $35,000

She is out of a Ghostzapper (damsire of Justify) mare that has already produced a G3 winner. The second dam is by Hansel (a great stamina influence) was a $300,000 winner. The nick is rated A++ at True Nicks

She was a May 31 foal, so not many pinhookers even thought twice about her.

If this horse were on her way to Ocala right now to broken by someone I trusted, I would be a very happy camper.

I would equally thrilled by an horse on my under $50,000 list. It is easy to be frustrated by the withdrawals and RNAs, but there were still plenty of bargains. I cannot say the same for my under $25,000 list. Those horses are decent speculations, but I would feel uncomfortable spending another $30,000 to train them.

In reality the choice is either owning 5% of top quality horse that could win graded stakes races for about $20,000, or owning 100% of a horse that might someday winl an allowance race for about $60,000/$80,000 (acquisition cost + training cost).

I know the Keeneland sale is exciting, but let’s not forget my mythical band of lowly claimers.

1. Royal Suspect – an Animal Kingdom turf horse that won the maiden claimer I took him out of for $40,000. Where will Bruce Levine spot him next. No works in the 22 days since the race. Became bottom level claimer at Penn National
2. Judicial Restraint – a Tonalist turf horse that I claimed off Chad Brown for $30,000. He came back to break his maiden in an off the turf race at Saratoga. Chad has him breezing at Monmouth. Became bottom level claimer Parx
3. Ames Mister – a Summer Front that I claimed of Tom Proctor at Ellis for $30,000. He has not raced since 8/22, but has been working at Churchill., 16 tries and still cannot break maiden
4. Hurricane Breeze – Another Summer Front I will claim off Maker tomorrow at Belmont. This is another Zilla claiming idea, that Orlando Noda wants to make. But then Zilla backed out at the last minute based on physical appearance, so we will back out too. MC winner at GP, no races since May 2021

I really should be an investor in West Point’s son of Connect. A 5% share would cost $17,600. West Point bought this horse at Fasig-Tipton for $120,000, the most expensive Connect at that sale.

Connect was not really a sire I was focused on, but I should have been. Connect was not a precocious horse. In fact he did not break his maiden until May of 3-year old season for Chad Brown. Only four month later he won the Penn Derby at 1 1/8 miles, and then the Cigar Mile with a Beyer of 106. His career was brief, but spectacular. HIs dam sire Holy Bull won the Florida Derby, Haskell, and Travers. Their is plenty of stamina influence here.

What makes this son of Connect so interesting is the dam side. Vindication had only a brief career as a horse and stallion, but he was the last great son of Seattle Slew. Vindication never raced after his BC Juvenile win, but I think he would have been a decent 1 1/4 horse. He was by a Strawberry Road mare, and owned by Padua Stables. His career as a sire was tragically cut short to two years by a fatal stomach rupture.

Vindy City (the colt’s dam) was never more than a allowance class sprinter, and her mom’s mom was also a sprinter (by Carson City). So the picture is mixed, but I believe the Vindication story. Exaggerator was the son of Vindication mare.

I also love the photo on the West Point site. He has the look of a two-turn horse.

Became Derecho Dandy who won a maiden race in SA, and has run poorly in two small stakes.

No not 1960’s pop group, but Funky Munky Stable, fired a bullet at hip #3182 on day 10 of the sale.

They bought a nice NY-bred filly by Mineshaft for $30,000. Mineshaft is solid stamina sire that is almost completely forgotten in the swirl of new fancy sires. The dam was an unraced daughter of Belmont winner Afleet Alex. The second dam produced million dollar sprint winner Taste of Paradise in 1999. He lost the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint by a head. I would call this a “sneaky good” pedigree.

I had great conversation with Richie Munk about 3 months ago. He was very honest and told some great stories about the problem horses he had bought at training sales. He said he was looking for one yearling this fall, and now he has his horse. Richie also had some great stories about his experiences in harness racing.

I will definitely give this horse some thought.

Became One Track Mine, 2nd in August, back to working in January

What were the average winnings of a horse bought on day 10 of the say 2017 Keeneland September sale. Somewhere someone has that number, it is not difficult to compute, but it is time consuming. I am sure if it were a positive number it would be reported, but I fear it is not a happy number.

I guess I will have to do my own calculation some day.

The Keeneland sale is grinding to a conclusion. The median sales price is down to $12,000. There are still a few $100,000+ horses being sold, but not may. A few Cupid’s sold for nice prices, and even a few Midnight Storm’s. The median for day 10 of the sale last year was about $20,000, so you could conclude that prices are down 50%.

That would be a little misleading. Any horse you buy this year will cost at least $30,000 to break and train into a race horse by next September. So a $20,000 purchase will cost $50,000 all in, and a $10,000 purchase is still $40,000 all in. There are still some economics here that I do not fully understand.

The buyback/withdrawal rate remains about 40%, down from over 50% earlier in the sale. It is an interesting mix of buyers. There are mainly pinhookers, but there are some interesting 3rd tier trainers. For example Travis Murphy (who runs at Iowa’s Prairie Meadow’s) has bought 5 horses for between $17,000 and $5,000. He is my new hero. Two other trainers that bought 5+ horses were Dan Pita and Austin Gustafson.

Pewter Stable was the only partnership was the only partnership that even took a swing on day 10 buying a Animal Kingdom for $5,000.

Eclipse almost got my money this afternoon. They put out an e-mail with a nice presentation on each of the 7 horses they are offering. The highlight is Aron Wellman (the Eclipse CEO) doing a 3-4 minute “elevator pitch” on each horse. He is a very effective speaker. Mr. Wellman has just the right mix of enthusiasm and wisdom.

He almost convinced me that $250,000 was not to much to pay for the well bred Air force Blue filly. His best line was something like:

“her ovaries alone are worth what we paid”

He was implying she is well bred enough that she has residual value as a broodmare. That is an interesting comment about a part of this game I do not fully understand.

Wellman made one other interesting comment in that AFB filly video. He said:

“she is the first foal out of an unraced Malibu Moon mare, and we like that”

That is really the first time I have heard anyone say out loud that they are using what I call an “anti-pedigree” strategy. The implication is, Eclipse would rather buy a horse by a mare that has done nothing because they do not have to pay as much. As long as the “physical” appearance is good they don’t want the performance at least in the first dam. This also seems to be a major strategy at Starlight.

A third comment that caught my attention was the common refrain:

“We think she could be ready for Saratoga”

In my strange way of thinking I consider that a negative.

I give Eclipse credit for buying a off brand sire that I like. If I was not so uncertain about whether civilization will continue in 2021, Eclipse might have got my money.

The good news is that I was 100% ready to pull the trigger on this horse. I would never have said that 4 months ago.

Skylerville has a slow win at Woodbine, no works since December 6th

MyRacehorse.com sent out an e-mail stating they will soon be sending out offers on the horse they bought at Fasig-Tipton.

They said:

“These horses will be will be available to invest in as soon as we’ve received approval fron the SEC”

I assume they mean the Securities Exchange Commission not the football conference. This is a very tricky and potentially misleading statement.

I spent 30 years in the investment business and survived 4 full scale SEC audits. I am quite sure the SEC does not approve race horses, and to imply they do is a fairly serious problem.

Much better would have been:

“We need to finish some paperwork with the SEC, before we can offer these horses.”

That difference might seem subtle to some, but I know the SEC is quite worried about how you use their name in print. This is not deal breaking issue, but it is a small step backward.

I will evaluate each horse as they put out offers, but I remain a little concerned this group is a little over-promotional.

Before the Keeneland sale is even over two smaller partnership operations put out some very reasonable offers.

I have been very impressed with the claiming offers that Zilla Racing has extended. Now they bought two yearlings and made a nice offer. If you like sprinters (I do not, that is my bias), then the NY-bred Kantharos filly is a very interesting idea. The pedigree is solid, and the price was right. Their fees are lower than the big guys, but they still have access to Chad Brown and Brad Cox.

Zilla also paid $200,000 for a Nyquist filly. This is a big swing for them. Nyquist is a hot sire, but I am yet to be convinced. I admire their courage and will be watching with great interest.

Pocket Aces is a group I am not that familiar with yet. They have a solid record of winning races, and they have had interesting offers at their website. They e-mailed an excellent offer last night if you like the freshman sire Klimt. He is son of Quality Road. Pocket Aces only paid $25,000 for hip #2493. The photo and the description are worth looking at.

If you are not on these mailing lists now is a good time to join.

Zilla horse became Whisky Lullaby was working in June, took a break, and is now back working in NY.

Zilla’s Kannon fire is working in NY

shakedown Street is not working for Pocket Aces

What would I do today if were going to invest $50,000, $25,000, $10,000, or $5,000 right now to invest in horses?

That is a difficult question that I really do have enough information to answer just yet, but I will try anyway.

At this moment I would prefer to wait until next year. I think the high buyback/withdrawal rate at the top end of this sale will mean more bargains next year at Ocala/Timonium. I also believe the death of Justice Ginsburg makes that election of Joe Biden a much higher probability than a week ago. I think the stock market will be 20-40% lower after the election, which makes waiting until 2021 a better idea.

In all honesty I still do not know what your “expected loss” will be when you invest in horses. Is that number -15% or -50%? I still do not know the answer to that question, but I am working every day to find the answer.

Just for fun let’s ignore the “wait until next year” idea, and try to answer the question today.

In theory, I like the idea of buying yearlings better. The horses do not have to be rushed to work a furlong in 10.1 too soon in their lives. That logic seems almost unassailable, but there is a problem.

Right now I think you can find “bargain” stamina/late developing horses for bargain prices at Ocala/Timonium. I have no hard data to support this opinion, right now it is just my intuition. There is also more downside risk in buying a yearling, 20-25% will never make it to the races.

In all honesty I was also not that impressed with the horses and prices that the partnerships selected at the yearling sales. That might seem a harsh judgement for a guy who has only been doing this four months, but I must “call them as I see them”.

Right now I lean ever so slightly toward buying from the training sales, but I also am leaning toward buying a whole horse rather than a partnership.

Again just for fun, let’s eliminate the whole horse option and waiting for Ocala/Timonium, and focus on the best yearling partnership investments right now.

Should you invest in a group of horses, or pick individual horses?

In theory I like like the group idea better, but in practice I am not leaning toward individual horses. I am just not that thrilled with what the groups are doing.

Starlight bought plenty of expensive horses, but I still worry about there “anti-pedigree” approach. I guess Ten Strike will announce their group later, right now they only show as buying two horses (neither of which I liked). There is also incomplete information on Centennial, Little Red Feather, and Bourbon Lane right now. That leaves Donegal.

I really wanted Donegal to be the answer, but overall I was not thrilled by their selections. I loved the Curlin, but not Uncle Mo’s, the Distorted Humor, or the Hard Spun. They were not terrible selections, just not what I was looking for. I will watch with interest, but not invest this year.

That leaves the other partnerships selling individuals horses. In theory I would like to invest with the smaller players. In practice that is not possible because I just have not done enough due diligence on these smaller guys to actually recommend them. It is my sincere desire to change that by next year. I would love to recommend Ironhorse, Pocket Aces, Zilla, or even Don’t Tell My Wife Stable today, but I just do not have enough information. I am still evaluating MyRacehorse.com, but they have not put their new yearlings on their website so far. These smaller guys also charge less in terms of fees, but I have more work to do.

That leaves West Point and Eclipse at the moment. I have done enough due diligence on these guys over the years to be comfortable investing with either of them. I realize their higher fees might reduce my returns, but their results indicate I might have some fun in return for those fees. I wish I had a better answer right now. I am writing this blog to get a better answer to the fee question.

In practice my choices are the 7 horses available right now at the West Point website, and the 8 horses that Eclipse will offer today at noon.

Let’s rank those 15 horses:

1. Connect – West Point, 5%/$17,600 – I think Connect is an undervalued sire, and I just like the photo. I like the Seattle Slew pedigree through Vindication
2. Air Force Blue – Eclipse, 3%/$9,750 – Love the sire and the dam’s pedigree, do not like the price paid, if they had paid $150,000 I would be a real world buyer
3. Declaration of War – West Point, 5%/$21,400 – I like the concept of a turf horse, but really do not like the price paid
4. English Channel – Eclipse – 6%/$6,000 – Goldilocks problem, is the price too low?
5. Speightstown – Eclipse – 3%/ $4,800 – not a Speightstown fan, but upgraded when he is turf meant
6. Frosted – West Point 5%/26,400 – I like the idea of Frosted, I thought there were cheaper alternatives
7. Curlin colt – Eclipse – 3%/$15,000 – ok sire, ok pedigree, solid not exciting
8. Curlin filly – Eclipse – 3%/$13,500 –
9. Gun Runner – Eclipse – 3%/.$4,800 – intrigued by the price, but do not like the dam’s pedigree
10. Dialed In – West Point 5%/$14,900 – I like Dialed In, but not the dam side of the pedigree
11. More Than Ready – West Point 5%/$17,600 – I think you overpay for the precocity of MTR
12. More Than Ready – Eclipse – 3%/$5,550 – not excited by dam’s pedigree
13. Arrogate – Eclipse – 3%/ sold out – Maybe better value in Arrogate next year
14. Mastery – West Point – 5%/$32,000 – Mastery is interesting, but the price is too high
15. Street Boss – West Point – 5%/$19,000 – Not a Street Boss fan at all

If I were spending $50,000 I would buy the Connect and the Air force Blue, and fill in with some of the smaller partnerships over the next few months

If I were spending $25,000 I would buy either the Connect of the AFB, and add some smaller partnerships later.

If I were spending $10,000 I would think about the English Channel, but also think about the smaller partnerships.

If I had to rank the smaller partnerships based solely on what they have bought at Keeneland so far it would be:

1. Don’t Tell My Wife
2. Ironhorse Racing
3. MyRacehorse.com
4. Victory Racing
5. Zilla (higher if you are a Nyquist fan)
6. Pewter
7. Pocket Aces

Would you rather pay $1,500 or $110,000 for a yearling? The question seems simple, but is actually quite difficult.

In fact right now I am certain the answer is I would rather pay $110,000. Why? Let’s remember that it will cost $40,000 to develop either horse so the real price comparison is $41,500 vs $151,000.

This was day 8 of the Keeneland sale.

Hip #2741 is a Summer Front colt out of a Dynaformer mare. It sold for $1,500

Then 21 hips later #2762 another Summer Front colt out of a Tiznow mare sold for $110,000.

Let’s compare pedigrees.

Dynaformer is a much better turf sire than Tiznow. The Dynaformer mare produced 7 winners from 11 foals, which is above average. Two foals won over $150,000. The second dam was a graded stakes winner, and the 3rd dam ran third in the Alcibiades. The True Nicks rating is A+.

The Tiznow mare was a better runner, winning over $100,000, but her one foal has made only $30,000. The second dam was unplaced, and the third dam was not much. The True Nicks rating is A++.

You can look at the walking videos at the Keeneland website. The Tiznow foal might look a little bigger, but he is nearly 3 months older. They are both consigned by the same seller.

I would prefer the Dynaformer pedigree, but most folks might call them about even. Very few would consider the Tiznow pedigee three times better.

Would you rather own the Summer Front colt that everyone on the planet passed on for $2,000, or the Summer Front colt that at least two people thought was worth $100,000?

I can guess that the Dynaformer foal had some vet issues, but who knows. We will be watching.

The median sales price fell to $25,000 for day 8 and the average was only $40,000. The buyback rate dropped significantly. Many horses were selling for under $5,000.

I guess these horses will cost the buyer $20,000 to $40,000 to break and train, so any price is a significant investment.

Several of the smaller partnerships got into the game. Zilla spent $200,000 on a Nyquist, while Pocket Aces bought a mastery for $25,000.

That is a lot of money for Zilla to spend on day 8 of the sale. I am not a big Nyquist fan, but this one will be fun to watch. The Pocket Aces buy gets a F from True Nicks, but Mastery could be a interesting new sire. It is also a first foal, something I am trying to avoid.

Both of my Dare to Dream horses ran poorly this week. The both had the lead at 3 furlongs, and faded to last at the end of 5 furlongs.

Blonde on Tap failed in her second start of the poly at Arlington. Blinkers did not help, so its back to the drawing board. She works 5f very nicely, but in a real race she expends too much energy too soon. How do you make fillies relax? That is one of the world’s great puzzles.

Quick Tempo tried the turf in the Ontario Stakes at Woodbine. He had a wicked fast duel with a Wesley Ward killer and they both went too fast. QT handled the turf and the ship very well. Even with a lot of bumping he seems to have comeback in fine shape. He will run on 10/8 at Churchill in a n1x allowance race at 6.5 furlongs.

Maybe the sales horses learn to run too fast early, or maybe these are just young horses that are learning the game.

The buyback rate started to fall, and the median price was around $50,000. It is hard to believe the sale is only 50% complete.

West Point and Eclipse were silent, but some of the smaller guys started to fire bullets at lower priced horses.

I had to pay up for my top pick, a son of Midnight Storm. I did not expect to pay $180,000.

Three other key horses were RNAed, and the Twirling Candy sold for $385,000. Overall I only got 5 of my 10 key horses. That is reality of this sale, you have to prepare for it. There were enough under $60,000 bargains that a little guy could find a horse in the first half of this sale, or he could wait for the second half.

The first four portfolio are designed to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike, and somewhat compete with West Point, Eclipse, and Starlight. The idea is to average about $100,000/horse, even though it looks like the big guys are spending more this year. I would rather choose a horse that was bought by a real owner, but some will be bought by pinhookers and resold in spring.

Ten colts to win the Kentucky Derby:

1. Gormley – Soul of Fashion by Perfect Soul – $115 – SGV – FT
2. Maclean’s Music – Dubai Moon – Malibu Moon – $70 – Chalk – FT
3. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100 Woods – KE5
4. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140 Heiligbrodt – KE5
5. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180 Woodford – KE6
6. Street Sense – Wedding Jitters by Broken Vow – $125 Donegal – KE4
7. Midnight Storm – Earlybird Road by Cherokee Run $70 Little Red Feather – KE9
8. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat – $150 Lanni and Starlight – FT
9. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100 John Oxley – KE8
10. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120 West Point – FT

Ten fillies to win the Kentucky Oaks:

1. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – $35- Davison – FT
2. Twirling Candy – Shaaraat by Distorted Humor – $190 -Courtland – FT
3. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – $75 – Parsley – KE4
4. Honor Code – Often by Galileo – $120 Hatman Thoroghbred – FT
5. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – $100 Slam Dunk Racing – KE2
6. Union Rags – Glory by Tapit – $170 Walnut Stream – KE7
7. Summer Front – Silver Reunion by Harlan’s Holiday – $250 Steve Young – KE3
8. Tonalist – Ruthian by Rahy – $25 Stone Farm – KE5
9. Connect – Aye d’Eclaire – $80 Ironhorse – KE8
10. Gun Runner – Wild About Tiffany – $100 Eclipse – KE4

Ten turf horses to win the Sword Dancer:

1. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145 – Rockingham – FT
2. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40 – Hayden -PS – FT
3. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda by Malibu Moon – $250 – Eclipse – KE1
4. Temple City – Eagle Island by Fusaichi Pegasus – $120 Debbie Easter – KE5
5. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini – $50 WSS Racing – KE5
6. Point of Entry – Dark Channel by English Channel – $80 X-Men Racing – KE7
7. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Acadamy – $65 TB Bloodstock – KE7
8. American Pharoah – Quarter Moon by Sadler’s Wells = $100 DJ Racing – KE2
9. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200 Winchell – KE3
10. Summer Front – She’s Not Lazy by Tiznow $110 Greg Foley – KE8

Ten “What if I am Wrong horses”, miler sires with stamina added on the dam side.

1. Practical Joke – Sky Saver by Super Saver – $75 – Whitehead PS – FT
2. Munnings – Simply Magic by Lemon Drop Kid – $75 -Bianculli – FT
3. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – $50 – McPeek – FT
4. Unified – Winter Solstice – Unbridled – $90 Paul Farr -KE7
5. Violence – Lemon Belle by Lemon Drop Kid – $125 Schwartz – KE4
6. Practical Joke – Devious d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro $45 Billy Williams – KE5
7. Practical Joke – Rock and Glory by Rock Hard Ten – $60 Victor Martinez
8. Mastery – Forensic by Medaglia d’Oro – $62 Lynnwood Stable KE5
9. Munnings – Quiero Ganar by Lasting Approval – $180 Mattmiller – KE5
10. Bal a Bali – English Kiss by English Channel – $13 Drakos KE11

Ten unicorns, very strong 2nd dams, bred to sprinter/milers:

1. Mastery – Helensvale by Elusive Quality – $240 Breeze Easy – KE3
2. Midnight Storm – Extra Sharp by Cherokee Run – $185 Nicoma – FT
3. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – $60 Bantry Farm – KE6
4. Mastery – Extravaganza by Elusive Quality – $60 – Don’t Tell My Wife – KE6
5. Practical Joke – Gofotitmrmiller – Spieghtstown – $150 North London – KE
6. Violence – Mystery Trip by Belong to Me – $100 Evergreen – KE
7. Violence – Conquest Rebel by Dixie Union – $55 Slam Dunk Racing – KE7
8. Connect – Its About Midnight by Distorted – $52 Kern Thoroughbreds – KE7
9. Maclean’s Music – Trusty Temper by Successful Appeal – $87 Rockingham – KE7
10. Connect – She Be Keene by Posse – $130 Oracle – KE4

Ten bargain horses, under $60,000. There were solid bargains in the first half of the sale, but you had to very patient. My favorites:

1. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – $35- Davison – FT
2. Point of Entry – Meadow Rose by Ghostzapper -$35 -BBN Racing – KE8
3. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini – $50 WSS Racing – KE5
4. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – $60 Bantry Farm – KE6
5. Noble Mission – Volver by Danehill Dancer – $30 Schwartz – KE4
6. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – $40 Black Stone Farm KE7
7. Connect – Happy Clapper – $50 Flying P – FT
8. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40 – Hayden– FT
9. Mastery – Extravaganza by Elusive Quality – $60 Don’t Tell My Wife – KE6
10. Classic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40 Global Equine – KE6

Ten best second half of Keeneland sale horses, let’s average $50,000:

1. Maclean’s Music – Beautified – $40 Walnut Stream – FT7
2. Violence – Try to Catch Me by Broken Vow – $70 ANW Racing – FT8
3. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge – $60 5 O’Clock Somewhere – KE9
4. Anchor Down – Bedroom Eyes – $50 Brocklebank – KE9
5. Gormley – Inner Groove – $45 Knights
6. Gormley – Beautifulballerina – $33 Bam vs nick – KE10
7. Keen Ice – Peace Price – $37 Romans – KE7
8. Midnight Storm – Soft Wind – $35 – 5 O’Clock Somewhere – KE10
9. Honor Code – Sarah Her Highness $60 – Austin Gustafson – KE7
10. Blame – Bag of Jewelz – $50 Sitwell Racing – KE7

Ten best bargain yearlings under $25,000:

1. Maclean’s Music – Jinny Jump Up – $25 James DiVito -KE9
2. Maclean’s Music – Reggae Rose – $20 Downstream – KE9
3. Tonalist – Banner Waving – $18 Brehm – KE9
4. Union Rags – Closing Range – $21 Double O – KE7
5. Honor Code – Big Move – $27 Stone Farm – KE9
6. Point of Entry – Flourish – $18 McCanna – KE10
7. Shamen Ghost – Guanahani – $25 – Roden – KE11
8. Shamen Ghost – She’s Stella Marie – Zill Racing – KE12
9. Connect – Star Venue – $15 Black Stone Farm – KE12
10. Midnight Storm – $20 Gary Broad – KE11

Ten best bargain yearlings $10,000 and under

1. Air Force Blue – Geographic – $10 Double O Racing
2. Tonalist – LaGrange – $10 – Cruzin’ Thoroughbreds
3. Anchor Down – Lemon Secretary – $10 QRF
4. Big Blue Kitten – Dram Girl – $10 Grade 1 Investments
5. Bal A Bali – Triple Cream – $9 Fontenot
6. Point of Entry – Divine Presence – $9 Dan Silva
7. Tourist – Table Jumper – $8 Tim McCanna
8. Maclean’s Music – Newsreel – $8 Robert Roth
9. Tourist – Smart Cash – $8 Sylvain Pion
10. Classic Empire – Peeress – $6 GDS Racing

Ten horses to win the Kentucky Derby without worrying about price:

1. #220 Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya – $350,000 Donegal Partners – Maybe the next Keen Ice, good looking video. Sweeping Giant, 2nd at Saratoga, not working
2. #156 Gun Runner – Espirit de Vie by Street Cry – $510,000 Baker and Mack – I love combining Gun Runner with lots of fancy Euro-pedigree from a Danehill second dam. – Giant’s Fire, 3rd in MSW in TB
3. #124 Medaglia de Oro – Dame Dorothy by Bernardini – $650,000 Juddmonte – Combine M de O with the best broodmare sire in the business and you should get a nice horse. Principe d’Oro, one try at GP
4. #80 Candy Ride – Brilliant Jewel by AP Indy – $450,000 Mayberry Farm – Combine Candy Ride with AP Indy and a Pleasant Tap second dam., Smooth Ride, not working
5. #440 Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000 Robert Low – This is my favorite P o N, with Street Cry, Pulpit, and Pleasant Colony on the dam side. Mayfair Man, not working
6. #395 American Pharoah – Slow Sand by Dixieland Band – $400,000 My Meadowview – My favorite American Pharoah from the same dam as King Guillermo, and a Seattle Slew second dam., Atlantic Dancer, 2 tries, working at OP
7. #597 Twirling Candy – Giant Win by Giant’s Causeway – $385,000 Lanni and Starlight, Not my favorite Twirling Candy, but maybe Donato knows what he is doing., Pinehurst, 5th in the BC Juvenile, back at SA, 2 wins
8. #1878 Twirling Candy – My Own Story by Lasting Approval – $375,000 Lanni and Starlight bid up another Twirling Candy, Anaheim, working in Cali
9. Classic Empire – Victory Party by Yankee Victor – $350,000 Winchell, dam of Beholder, Classic Moment, MSW winner at CD, working at OP
10. Union Rags – Ms Short Fuze – Zensational – $650,000 Lanni and Starlight, dam of Cloud Computing, Carbonite, 4 tries, last seen in October

At the right are my letter grades for each purchase. This is obviously subjective. It is a measure of how likely the purchase is to interest my narrow view.

I guess we need to keep track of each partnerships purchases:

Donegal :

1. #220 Curlin – Isabella Sings – $350, A+
2. #364* Uncle M- Runway Ready – $400, C-
3. #903 Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown – $250, B-
4. #1088 Distorted Humor – Namaskara – $130, B+
5. #1231 Street Sense – Wedding Jitters – $125, B-
6. #1604 Hard Spun – Wave the Flag – $140, B+
7. #1845 Exaggerator – Lookingforchange – $70, B

West Point:

1. #361* Frankel – Rubina – $400, C+
2. #671* Brody’s Cause – Light Shine – $105, B
3. #681* Frosted – Magical Belle – $225, B+
4. #704* Medaglia d’Oro – Miss Empire – $300, B+
5. #772* Nyquist – Secret Garden – $100, C+
6. #957* Candy Ride – Dixie Ride – $575, B
7. #972* Mastery – Exogenetic – $300, B
8. #1204 Declaration of War – Teed Off – $170, B+

Eclipse:

1. #435* Tapit, C
2. #209* Curlin, B-
3. #51* Arrogate, B
4. #162 Curlin, A-
5. #371 Air Force Blue, A+
6. #465 Gun Runner – B-
7. #581* Classic Empire – B
8. #738 Speightstown – B
9. #1065* Curlin – B+
10. #1145 English Channel – B
11. # 1657 More Than Ready – B

MyRacehorse.com

1. #234* War Front – B+
2. #293* Frosted – A-
3. #433 * Empire Maker, B
4. #540* Gun Runner, B-
5. #912* Into Mischief, C
6. #1064* Uncle Mo, C
7. #1355* Honor Code, B+
8. #1262 Not This Time, B
9. #1578 Kantharos, D

Ten Strike:

1. #941 Munnings – Cup of Java – $200, C+
2. #1136* Lord Nelson – Renia Maria – $460, F

Starlight:

1. #78 Into Mischief – Bouquet Booth $775, C
2. #1197 Quality Road – Sustainable $775, B
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Ironhorse Racing

1. #619 Air Force Blue -High Maintenance – $35, A+
2. #1478 Frosted – Morea – $150, B
3. #2466 Connect – Aye d’Eclaire – $80, A-

Victory Racing Partners

1. #1382 Street Sense – $215 B
2. #2244 Connect – Love That – $60, B-

Don’t Tell My Wife Stables

1. #1239 Tiznow – Wynning is Sweet – $40, B+
2. #1765 Mastery – Extravaganza – $60, A+
3. #2224 Candy Ride – Lady Samuri – $35. A-

Cenntenial Farms

1. #99 Nyquist – Chantillion – $300, B-
2. #505 Honor Code – Beat the Drums – $260, A-

Pewter Stables

1. #1815 Klimt – Illusional Sky, – $22, B
2. #2009 Runhappy – Too Much Malibu – $20, B
3. #2279 Lookin at Lucky – Miss Sammy – $25, B

Pocket Aces

1. #2098 Mastery – Creeme Run Wild – $20 , B+
2. #2493 Klimt – Buona Sera – $25, C+

Bourbon Lane

1. #1501 Bernardini – Pacific Whisper – $165, C+

Day 5 continued to go slow. Buyback were high and there were once again 25 “no shows”. The median fell to $85,000. I got the two horses i wanted, but I did have to pay $140,000 for the Gormley. At least they showed up and were not RNAed.

It was interesting that both Eclipse and West Point were silent. Donegal bought a solid Street Sense. Starlight bought four more MyRacehorse.com grabbed three.

Two new players entered. Victory Racing Stable bought a very reasonable Street Sense for $220,000, I need to learn more. At a small operation located in Ft. Worth with the cute name of, Don’t Tell My Wife Stables, bought a decent Tiznow for $40,000. I will have to get to know these guys that are only 30 miles away from me.

My first unicorn is hip #878 that was purchased by Craig Wheeler for $80,000, a fair multiple of 3.2 times the stud fee of $25,000.

The special second dam was Go Donna Go, the mother of superstar Macho Again (winner of the Stephen Foster and Jim Dandy). Go Donna go was by Wild Again which brings the stamina oriented pedigree of Wild Again to the table.

The dam was a solid daughter of Exchange Rate. She was 3rd in the Apple Blossom for Wayne Lukas. Exchange Rate is a son of Danzig.

The sire hip #878 is none other than Practical Joke. Yes he is a son of the hated Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare. He is a “modern” speed horse that is selling well.

This horse is 3/4 Danzig, Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, and 1/4 distance oriented Wild Again pedigree/proven distance horse. Let’s hope he is the next Union Rags.

No works showing in January

This is the beginning of strategy #2. The basic concept is to recreate what Phyllis Mills Wyeth did when she bred Union Rags. Union Rags was a unicorn because he had the precocity to win the Saratoga Special and Champagne, but also the stamina to win the Belmont Stakes.

Strategy #1 was to breed classic stamina oriented sires with classically bred stamina oriented mares (or plodders to plodders in the eyes of many), and hope that you can get them cheap because they are not the popular horses at the sales. I still believe in this strategy, but it is difficult to execute because those horses are RNAed or mysteriously withdrawn at the sales. I am not giving up, I am just investigating an alternative.

Strategy #2 still involves stamina, it just tries to acquire it a little differently. I want to find a second dam that is a special distance oriented race horse that can pass along just enough of her characteristics to build a unicorn. In this strategy, the dam is often an underachiever or lightly raced horse.

Lets review what Mrs. Mills Wyeth did to create Union Rags. She had a mare named Tempo that had been bred by her mother (part of the duPont family). Tempo ran three times for Bill Mott. Her last race was a solid 94 Equibase fig finish second in an allowance race at Aqueduct going a mile. Tempo was special because her mother was Terpsichorist, an 11 for 28 long distance stakes horse for Woody Stephens. Terpsichorist was also regally bred, sired by Nijinsky out of a British Champion mare named Glad Rags.

Union Rag’s second dam was a very special horse, and is the key to strategy #2, now called the unicorn strategy. Tempo was the result of breeding Terpsichorist with Gone West, not a classic horse, but more of a miler. In my unicorn strategy the dam sire is often a miler. Mrs. Mills Wyeth tried Tempo with many different sires, but succeeded with Dixie Union. Dixie Union was a precocious speed horse that could stretch out.

Union Rags was 3/4 precocious “miler maybe more” big solid Mr. Prospector, Danzig, Storm Cat type of horse, mixed with 1/4 of special Euro-oriented long distance pedigree.

This is the magic used to build unicorns in strategy #2. The hope is these horses will actually sell at a sale, not dangled out there only to lost to RNAs and withdrawals.

Day 4 was more of the same. Only about half of the 385 cataloged horses got sold. I no longer care if they call them outs or RNA, either way they are frustrating. The median price was down to $135,000, down from $185,000 the previous day. That cannot be good.

Of my 4 key horses, one was a no show, one was RNAed, and two sold for too little.

That sounds crazy, let me explain. The Noble Mission sold for $30,000 and the Tonalist for $25,000, both less than half the median. I consider that TGTBT (To Good To Be True). I will still keep track of these horses in a special group, but I will exclude them from my main portfolios. I fear these horses have some obvious defect, or bad x-rays or heart scores. I do not think trying to steal $25,000 yearling on the fourth day of the Keeneland sale is a realistic strategy. Maybe for $60,000, I would have said that was a great deal.

I will add one Union Rags to my filly portfolio. The mare was a decent Pletcher trainee that got 4th in a Oaklawn graded stake, and the second dam was a solid horse, and is a full sister to the great mare Spain. It is an interesting pedigree play with an A++ nick. The other Union Rags were outs or RNAs. Maybe this should be a TGTBT, but for now let how the rest of the dale goes. I am a little concerned that I will be left with a collection of $25,000 horses. I was very disappointed the Summer Front RNAed for $45,000, and the Blame was a no show.

I have had little trouble filling my “What if I am Wrong” portfolio. The Practical Joke’s, Violence’s, and Unified’s just fly off the shelf, but there are few bids for my plodders. I am beginning to get a bad attitude about this sale, but I will keep pushing. I have about 30 ideas for tomorrow, and 2 key horses.

West Point bought a very expensive Candy Ride, and an interesting Declaration of War. Eclipse bought an expensive Curlin and a very cheap ($27,000) English Channel.

Donegal bought a marginal Uncle Mo and a confusing Distorted Humor. Starlight paid up for 5 more horses.

MyRacehorse.com added in uncreative fashion an Uncle Mo and an Into Mischief.

I was very disappointed in Ten Strike’s two buys, an expensive Munnings, and a $460,000 Lord Nelson. That is almost enough to disqualify them for this year. That is taking the stretching out a miler too far in my humble opinion. That is why they have horse races.

Unicorn is a word that has been heavily overused in the investment world, but it really fits with the sire Union Rags.

UR was precocious enough to win the Saratoga Special and the Champagne at 2 years old, but had enough stamina to win the Belmont the next year. He is in some ways a model horse. It is a great story about Patti Mills Wyeth believing is her mare Tempo (the granddaughter of an English champion), and eventually finding the right sire is Dixie Union.

In fact the whole story makes me wonder if the best plan might be to buy a stamina oriented mare and have her babies. This might be more effective than the sales route.

Union Rags had a bad day yesterday in the sales ring with 7 RNAs and 6 outs, and 4 selling for $75,000 of less. I want to take advantage of that unpopularity and find a UR today.

Blonde on Tap (Tapiture) tries her second race today at Arlington. She drew outside is a big field going 5 furlongs. They add blinkers today. She loses Jose Lopez to a Chris Block firster, so Constantino Roman rides. She should go off at a nice price, she is 12-1 morning line.

Quick Tempo (Tapizar) is entered if 5 furlong turf stakes race on Saturday at Woodbine. This field almost looks tougher than the Kentucky Downs race. Trombetta has a quick horse, and there are two Canadian horses with fast times. I am not sure that the long van ride to Canada is the best idea, but Churchill seemed unwilling to write an allowance race. The purse is $150,000, so it is worth a try. After watching 6 days of racing at KD I am glad we did run there, it was tough for speed to hold in sprints with the big uphill finish.

Song Saver (Super Saver) has been shipped to Monmouth to start working again after 6 weeks of rest.

Tonalistic (Tonalist) is still recovering from his stall accident where he chipped his ankle.

Four of my top ten horses go tomorrow. With such a high buyback rate it is difficult to predict what I will get.

The real question is should I be trying to find horses from more expensive sires that might be overlooked. That strategy failed yesterday, but I feel like I should keep trying.

My fantasy baseball instincts are telling me there are too many Candy Ride’s, Honor Code’s, and Union Rags being offered. Supply is exceeding demand, that can lead to bargains. If everyone is waiting for the big Candy Ride in 20 more hips, maybe the current one will go cheap. I am not sure this is a real strategy, but that is what we are trying to learn.

One thing you learn in fantasy baseball is you have to ready for every player, because you never know who will drop unexpectedly.

So here are my interests for tomorrow in the $120,000 range.

1. #843 Candy Ride – Viva Malala by Malibu Moon A+, out
2. #846 Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway A++, $75
3. #915 Candy Ride – Charm the maker by Empire Maker A++, out
4. #939 Honor Code – Crimson Maple by Rahy B, out
5. #950 Union Rags – Derby Eve by Tiznow A++, $45 RNA
6. #958 Union Rags – Dr Diamonds Prize by Pure Prize A++, $75 RNA
7. #968 Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado A+, $40
8. #990 Union Rags – Giant Mover by Giants Causeway A++, $350,000
9. #1025 Frosted – Kalahari Cat by Storm Cat A , $270,000
10. #1106 Union Rags – Partisan Politics by More Than Ready A++,out

Day 3 was slow again. 385 horses were cataloged. At 9am, 46 were reported out, but 37 more disappeared during the day. Reported RNA’s were 117. Less than half of the cataloged horse were sold, that cannot be good. Can consignors hope to sell these horses at later yearling sales? Or will there be an overflow at Ocala and Timonium next year?

I do not understand the flow of these horses. That makes it difficult to adjust my strategy going forward.

West Point bought 3 horses each interesting in its own way . They bought a Frosted for $225,000 that is moderately interesting, if you still believe in Frosted. I am happy to buy imaginary Frosted’s and hope the early results can be overlooked, but in the real world it is a tougher call. WP also bought a Brody’s Cause and a Nyquist for $100,000 each. Dallas Stewart also bought part of the Nyquist. I would call these ok, but not exciting. The Frosted needs more thought.

Eclipse bought a $100,000 Gun Runner, and a $100,000 Spieghtstown. I will think about the Gun Runner.

Starlight bought 5, and Centennial and MyRacehorse.com each bought 1

Just for fun let’s throw price out the window and find the 10 horses most likely to win the Derby next year. I will just start with the high priced horses and list the one I like the best,

1. #220 Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya – $350,000 Donegal Partners – Maybe the next Keen Ice, good looking video.
2. #156 Gun Runner – Espirit de Vie by Street Cry – $510,000 Baker and Mack – I love combining Gun Runner with lots of fancy Euro-pedigree from a Danehill second dam.
3. #124 Medaglia de Oro – Dame Dorothy by Bernardini – $650,000 Juddmonte – Combine M de O with the best broodmare sire in the business and you should get a nice horse.
4. #80 Candy Ride – Brilliant Jewel by AP Indy – $450,000 Mayberry Farm – Combine Candy Ride with AP Indy and a Pleasant Tap second dam.
5. #440 Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000 Robert Low – This is my favorite P o N, with Street Cry, Pulpit, and Pleasant Colony on the dam side.
6. #395 American Pharoah – Slow Sand by Dixieland Band – $400,000 My Meadowview – My favorite American Pharoah from the same dam as King Guillermo, and a Seattle Slew second dam.
7. #597 Twirling Candy – Giant Win by Giant’s Causeway – $385,000 Lanni and Starlight, Not my favorite Twirling Candy, but maybe Donato knows what he is doing.
8. #1878 Twirling Candy – My Own Story by Lasting Approval – $375,000 Lanni and Starlight bid up another Twirling Candy
9. Classic Empire – Victory Party by Yankee Victor – $350,000 Winchell, dam of Beholder
10. Union Rags – Mr Short Fuze – Zensational – $650,000 Lanni and Starlight, dam of Cloud Computing

Let’s also do the same thing for the Fasig-Tipton sale.

1. #447 Maclean’s Music – War Relic by Pulpit – $400,000 Donato Lanni and Starlight. same cross as Cloud Computing, first Donato Lanni horse I like
2. #239 Street Sense – Mia and Molly by Giant’s Causeway – $150,000 West Point, great. looking, good female family
3. #323 Classic Empire – Rever de Vous – Distorted Humor – $375,000 Liz Crow, second dam by El Prado
4. #457 Pioneerof the Nile – Wynning Ride by Candy Ride – $470,000 Brad Anderson. let’s try Candy Ride as a broodmare sire
5. #324 Pioneerof the Nile – R Gypsy Gold by Bernardini – $400,000 Ken McPeek. The best broodmare sire
6. #444 Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000 West Point, I just love the “long” look of the horse in the West Point photo and the comment a lot of Seattle Slew

There are 10 horses in books 4, 5, and 6 that I really want. I would love to pay $100,000, but I will go to $200,000. Maybe I should wait until the bargain rounds, but I want to test these early/middle rounds. Does it make sense to “pay up” for quality? Here is my list:

1. #844 Noble Mission – Volver by Danehill Dancer, A+
2. #885 Blame – Bikini Beauty by Bernardini, B
3. #1146 Tonalist – Ruthina by Rahy, A
4. #1187 Summer Front – Street Minstrel by Street Cry, A
5. #1326 Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo, B
6. #1605 Gormley – The Best Option by Pleasant Tap, B+
7. #1757 Air Force Blue – Dynarama by Dynaformer, A+
8. #1878 Twirling Candy – My Own Story by Lasting Approval, A++
9. #1958 Point of Entry – Silimiss by Danehill, A+
10. #2001 Midnight Storm – Tasunke by Indian Charlie, A++

I guess with the large number of withdrawals and RNA’s I should be happy if I get 5 of 10.

i have plenty of options in the later rounds, let’s see what happens.

After a dark day, Keeneland starts again with Book 2. With more than 400 horses this is a complete book in one day. It is similar to book 1. There are still mainly expensive stallions. There is only one Maclean’ Music, only one Tonalist, only one Midnight Storm, and no Summer Fronts. The median price will still be around $200,000.

Most of the horses I am interested in start to show up around hip #2000, and Book 2 ends at hip #834.

Patience grasshopper.

Just for fun let’s see if we can find some things we like for $120,000.

1. The best of the 4 AFB’s or #619
2. The best Blame #746
3. Either of the 2 Dialed In’s #573 or #683
4. The best Frosted #613
5. The best Honor Code #525 or #813
6. The best Pioneerof the Nile #737 or #807
7. The best Street Sense #814
8. I do not like any of the 4 Twirling Candy’s
9. The best Union Rags #477, 739, 773
10. I do not like the 4 Violence’s

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Frustrated again. Of the 13 I wanted, 10 were out or RNA, and 2 sold for over $300,000

The one that was modestly interesting was the Street Sense that sold for $180,000, but I think there will be cheaper Street Sense’s in the next few days.

One that I was really disappointed with was hip #447 that RNAed for $190,000.

#477 Union Rags – After Thought by Fusaichi Pegasus, I really liked this horse an will try to watch for it going forward. I think I will do a little more work on Union Rags.

Here is an updated list of the offers i an considering and watching:

1. Air Force Blue is most critical (Eclipse)
2. Declaration of War from FT has a little interest (Eclipse)
3. Street Sense from FT has a tiny interest (West Point)
4. Connect from FT has a tiny interest (West Point)
5. Watching carefully what Donegal and Ten Strike are doing with yearlings
6. Will MyRacehorse.com offer more yearlings?
7. Keeping tabs on Starlight
8. Need to check on Summer Front yearling at Horseplayer Racing Group, still available
9. Need to check if Bloodlines Noble Mission is still available, no closed
10. Need to check with Dream Maker on Noble Mission, still open
11. Pewter still has Malibu Moon two year old available
12. I guess the Little Red Feather yearling deal is closed
13. Wasabi Ventures still has some two olds on the website
14. Victory Partners bought a yearling at Keeneland
15. Don’t Tell My Wife Stables bought a yearling at Keeneland
16. Watching Richie at Funky Munky
17. Watching what Ironhorse and Bourbon Lane are doing with yearlings
18. Watching Kenwood and Zilla on claims
19. Watching Centennial, Hibiscus, Pocket Aces, Bona Venture
20. I guess Dare to Dream is stick to training sales
21. Check back with Crowns Way
22. Check Taste of Victory on private management idea
23. Check Churchhill Racing Club
24. Check Magdalena

There is plenty going on, it is tough to stay organized

Cumulatively Keeneland sold 209 of 448 cataloged horses. The buyback rate was reported at 39.6%, but with last minute outs it was closer to 45%. The average price got close to last year with some big horses at the end of the day. The Arab investors made a small comeback.

1. Starlight bought 5 more for a total of 12
2. West Point grabbed one, a Frankel, that is difficult to evaluate
3. Eclipse took the AFB, but then splurged for part of a $2,000,000 horse today, for a total of 5
4. MyRacehorse.com got 2, including an interesting Frosted
5. Donegal bought a great Curlin colt yesterday
6. Centennial got one yesterday

If you walked in with a $200,000 budget, you would have most likely been disappointed in Book 1. If you budget was $400,000 you could have found an interesting horse.

By a wide margin my favorite was Donegal’s $350,000 purchase of hip #220 a Curlin colt with a stamina oriented female family, but the Eclipse purchase of an Air Force Blue daughter (hip #371) might make me an actual investor.

Buying a group of imaginary horses is a lot fun.

Trying figure out how to invest actual money in the real world is complicated.

Here is the list of decisions:

1. Should I invest this year, or wait for a stock market correction?
2. Should I wait until I understand the process a little better?
3. Should I wait until I meet some of these people in person?
4. What is the future of horse racing?
5. Should I buy a whole horse, or invest in partnerships?
6. What if my expected percentage loss from either?
7. If I bought a whole horse, could I find the right bloodstock agent and trainer?
8. Would it not be smarter to buy several partnerships horses, rather than one whole horse?
9. If I use partnerships should I go with a portfolio approach like Donegal and Ten Strike, or individual horses like Eclipse and West Point.
10. What about the other 25 smaller partnerships?
11. Do any of the partnerships have excessive fees?
12. Should I do yearlings or 2 yr-olds in training?
13. Can I wait to the end of the sales, or do I have to act quicker?

Eclipse complicated my life by buying hip #371 for $250,000. I really like this daughter of Air Force Blue out of a Malibu Moon mare. I will have to give this horse serious consideration.

Here is what I like:

1. AFB is an “under the radar” sire that I feel in underrated, he is my 7th rated stallion out of 150
2. AFB is viewed as a sprinter, but his pedigree says he can be more
3. Randy Bradshaw was effusive in his praise of AFB’s offspring’s physical appearance at the sales
4. The second dam is G1 winner of the CC Oaks and Mother Goose, and produced a $370,000 winner
5. The third dam won the the BC Distaff
6. The first dam is by Malibu Moon/AP Indy
7. The nick is rated A+
8. The first thing Coolmore says on its website is breed AFB to Seattle Slew offspring
9. It would almost be impossible to find more stamina to “stretch out” AFB

Here is what I do not like:

1. The dam is unraced
2. This the dam’s first foal
3. The multiple was 17x the stud fee of $15,000. Another sold for $150,000 at FT.
4. Why was a $15,000 stallion’s daughter even in Book 1 of the Keeneland sale?
5. I am not sure how to evaluate AFB’s Australian offspring

If the sales were all done, and this was the best deal available, I think I would say yes, but right now I have to wait to see what else might be available

Goldilocks liked her porridge “just right” not too hot and not too cold.

I like my yearlings at “just the right price” priced not too high or too low.

If a yearling sells for too much, you just have to let it pass and wait for something else.

If a yearling sells for too little, there is an 80% chance it will not achieve the reserve price (RNA), if it does reach the reserve it might be a TGTBT.

TGTBT = To Good To Be True

There is a fine line between a bargain and a TGTBT.

We have all seen the allowance horse entered in a $20,000 claimer that runs last at 3/ 5 odds. There was something wrong.

Remember the Goldilocks principle, it will be with us for the remainder of this blog.

My attempt to find “the deal of the century” on day 2 ended in frustration. Of the 11 horse I was interested in, 4 sold for more than $350,000, 4 were RNAed, and 2 mysteriously disappeared on the way to the ring. The one horse that fit the profile was hip #342:

f – Pioneerof the Nile out of Purely Hot by Pure Prize for $300,000 – 4/19

The real world buyer was the smart folks at Tommy Town (a California stud farm). As I looked a little closer I found the mare was only a sprinter despite being by Pure Prize and out of a Kissing Kris mare (both stamina influences). I will put this horse to my “what if I am wrong” portfolio. This is a vary balanced horse that I would have little interest in, but the price was right. The one foal of the mare won a G1 two yr-old race at a mile, and ran in the BC Juvenile fillies race. This will be a fun horse to watch develop.

I declare the winner of Day 1 of the Keeneland sale to be Jerry Crawford of Donegal. Late in the day he struck paying $350,000 (or 2x the stud fee) for a very nice son Curlin. The dam was a multiple graded winner routing, and the second dam bring long-distance Euro-pedigree. Crawford bought another son of Curlin in 2013 at Keeneland for $120,000. That turned out to be Keen Ice, who earned over $3,600,000, even thought he only won 3 races, and now stands for $20,000.

The sale did not go that well yesterday. Average price fell from $430,000 last year to $373,000 this year. That drop is more pronounced because “book 1” was reduced to 450 horses from over 600 last year. There were also at least 20 of those last second outs that prevented the buyback rate from being reported as 45% rather than the 36% they actually reported.

I counted at least 20 horses yesterday that were withdrawn from the sale, even though they were not reported as out at the beginning of the day. Overall only 109 of 224 horses were sold. Their were 62 reported RNAs, but only about 35 outs at the beginning of the day. That leaves about 28 horses that mysteriously did not appear in the ring. Maybe a few developed a cough overnight, but most of the sellers knew they would not make their reserve.

Today I will search for my Keen Ice #3. I will use Donegal as a model and look for a top sire for less than $350,000. I thought these would all be too expensive, but with poor market conditions, maybe one will fall to me.

Here is my list;

1. #305 – Curlin by Street Cry
2. #273 – American Pharoah by Sadler’s Wells
3. #323 – Medaglia d’Oro by Pulpit 4/30
4. #440 – Pioneerof the Nile by Street Cry 3/17
5. #419 – Candy Ride by Arch 5/8
6. #413 – Candy Ride by AP Indy 3/20
7. #338 – War Front by Galileo 2/9
8. #245 – Pioneerof the Nile by Arch 3/8
9. #342 – Pioneerof the Nile by Pure Prize 4/19
10. #365 – Union Rags by Pulpit 4/21
11. #239 – War Front by Galileo 3/29

Maybe all these horses will too expensive, or maybe they will be “the deal of the century”

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Scoreboard

Starlight bought 8 top priced horse in partnership with Madaket. All of them had dams on the sprinter/precocious side. I did not like a single one.

Eclipse bought 3 horses. They were ok, but nothing that I would consider.

Centennial bought an unexciting Nyquist.

Repole bought 7 horses, and a few others bought 4. The Arab buyers were mostly not around.

Maybe this is a good time to be a buyer.

Michael Behrens started MyRacehorse.com because he thought the business of owning race horses was unnecessarily opaque.

I started writing this blog because I thought the business of owning race horses was unnecessarily opaque.

Opaque is a fancy word for “not transparent’.

Mr. Behren’s solution was to build a business that could promote horse ownership through the viral magic of social media. My solution was to figure out what someone should pay for an obscure daughter of Tonalist that worked 10.2 at the Ocala sale.

Early indications are that Mr. Behrens idea will make more money.

I learned the myracehorse.com by listening to this interview:

Michael Behrens of MyRacehorse

My first impression is that that Mr. Behren’s “heart is in the right place”. He says the right things about education and disclosure. He is a former advertising executive, so to analytical folks, like me, he is always going to seem a little promotional.

It is my intention to judge Myracehorse.com on the horses they select at the sales going forward. This is exactly how I will judge West Point, Eclipse, Donegal, Ten Strike, and 30 other partnerships going forward. Who will pick the best horses?

The only difference is that MyRacehorse will offer ownership percentages much lower than the more established partnerships. In general I think that is a good plan, but it also creates problems. If Mr. Behrens delivers on his promise of education and disclosure, I think he will be good for the industry.

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I think it is important to look at the Authentic situation as a “once in a lifetime” deal that deserves to be evaluated as a separate investment that will not have that much of an effect on the future of MyRacehorse.com.

Buying .0001% of Authentic for $200+ was a complex investment in the future stallion prospects of Authentic. MyRacehorse. com was only able to make that investment because Mr. Hughes of Spendthrift Farm wanted to help “disrupt” the industry. Such an opportunity may never occur again. Will the $200 investors make money on their investment? There are so many variables that effect the breeding business that it will take years to evaluate.

At worst the Authentic deal can be seen a “publicity stunt” that attracts attention. Now MyRacehose.com need to develop a solid product by buying good horses.

At best Mr. Behrens might generate 100,000 (his estimate) new “owners” over the next year.

My old boss in the investment business had the chance to have dinner with Warren Buffett. He asked Mr. Buffett what was the most important lesson he had learned in investing. Buffett said:

“Educate your clients”

Mr. Behrens please continue to educate your new clients.

I am not sure how productive this will be, but lets give it a try. This is really a guessing game. There might be exhaustion with so many Curlin’s and War Front’s early. The Into Mischief’s are not that well bred, but will sell big anyway.

It is surprising that many of the female families are not all that impressive.

For the first 100;

1. the first number is the current stud fee
2. the second number is my estimate of value before the sale
3. simple multiplication
4. the actual auction price, and my comment

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1. out
2. Arrogate – 50 – 3x – 150 – 170 rna
3. out
4. Medaglia – 200 – 4x – 800 – 575 rna filly discount
5. War Front – 250 – 3x – 750 – 335 a little small, filly
6. Pionner – 175 – 2x – 350 – 625 colt premium , Classic empire cross
7. Curlin – 175 – 2x -350 – 400
8. Classic Empire – 20 – 5x – 100 – 350, hot sire, too much
9. Gun Runner – 70 – 5x – 350 – 375
10. Quality – 200 – 5x – 800 – 375 rna bargain, unusual mare
11. War Front – 250 – 3x – 750 – 400 filly, bargain?
12. Constitution – 40 – 5 -200 – 370
13. Ghost – 75 – 3x – 225 – cribber 100
14. Curlin – 175 – 2x – 350 – ff 85 rna
15. Pioneer – 175 – 2x – 350 – 275
16. Pharoah – 100? – 500 – 325 rna ap a little weak
17. War Front – 250 – 3x – 750 – 295 rna war front weak
18. out
19. Quality – 200 – 2x – 400 – 250 bargain?, starlight
20. Gun Runner – 5x – 350 – rna? 90 rna
21. Pharoah – 100 – 2x – 200 – 285 rna
22. Nyquist – 40 – 4x – 160 – 190 rna
23. Curlin – 175 – 3x – 525 -735 rna
24. Malibu – 60 – 4x – 240 – 140 filly rna
25. out
26. Ghost – 75 – 2x – 150 – 200 rna
27. Speight – 70 – 7x – 490 – 400
28. out
29. Flatter – 40 – 4x – 160 – 330 why flatter
30. Kitten – 75 – 3x – 225 – 130
31. Curlin – 175 – 2x -350 – 130
32. Tapit – 200 – 3x – 600 – 260 rna
33. Uncle – 125 – 3x – 375 – 335
34. Runhappy – 25 – 6x – 150 – 190 rna they hate runhappy
35. Street Sense – 75 – 2x – 150 -100
36. Ghost – 75 – 2x – 150 -220
37. War Front -250 – 3x – 750 – 230 wf weak
38. out
39. War Front – 250 – 1x – 250 – 325
40. Medaglia – 200 – 5x – 1,000 – 600 bargain?
41. Uncle – 125 – 3x – 375 – 325 rna
42. Uncle – 125 – 2x – 250 – 300 starlight
43. Tapit – 200 – 4x – 800 – 185 rna ???? bargain?
44. Curlin – 175 – 2x – 350 – 625 bidding war
45. Medaglia – 200 – 3x – 600 – 330
46. Street Sense – 75 – 3x – 225 – 120 rna cheap
47. Uncle Mo – 125 – 7x – 225 wow what a disappointment
48. Street – 75 – 5x – 375 – 100 rna street sense on sale
49. Into – 175 – 4x – 700 – 350 even into mischief a bargain
50. Arrogate – 50 – 10x – 500 – 150
51. Arrogate – 50 – 6x – 300 – 250 eclipse
52. Kitten – 75 – 2x – 150 – 190 rna
53. Kitten – 75 – 4x – 300 – rna? 90
54. California – – – 200 – 120 rna they hate cc
55. Into – 175 – 4x – 700 – 385 im not selling
56. out
57. Pharoah – 100 – 10x – 1,000 – 340
58. Medaglia – 200 – 5x – 1,000 – 1,100 ok finally
59. Medaglia – 200 – 4x – 800 – 170 rna bargain?
60. out
61. Practical – 25 – 10x -250 out late
62. Empire – 75 – 4x – 300 – 40 yikes
63. Curlin – 175 – 4x – 700 – 400 starlight
64. Into – 175 – 4x – 700 – 350
65. Uncle – 125 – 8x – 1,000 – 800 ok
66. Not This – 40 – 10x – 400 – 450
67. Quality – 200 – 3x – 600 – 1,000 solid
68. Malibu – 60 – 5x – 300 – 65 wow
69. out
70. Speight – 70 – 4x – 280 – 235
71. out
72. Curlin – 175 – 5x – 875 – 285 rna bargain
73. Gun Runner – 70 – 5x – 350 – 435 rna
74. Medaglia – 200 – 4x – 800 out??? late
75. Distorted – 75 – 3x – 225 – 300
76. Into – 175 – 3x – 525 – 150 wow
77. Pharoah – 100 – 6x – 600 – 245
78. Into – 175 – 6x – 1050 – 775
79. Dark Angel – ? – 500 – 150
80. Candy – 100 – 5x – 500 – 450 bad looking,
81. Medaglia – 200 – 5x – 1,000 out late
82. Pharoah – 100 – 5x – 500 – 490
83. Arrogate – 50 – 15x – 750 – 185
84. Medaglia – 200 – 6x – 1,200 – 200 wow
85. out
86. out
87. out
88. Malibu – 60 – 5x – 300 – 180
89. Curlin – 175 – 5x – 925 – 290 rna
90. out
91. out
92. Kitten – 75 – 4x – 300
93. out
94. out
95. Candy – 100 – 7x – 700 – 345 rna
96. Union – 65 – 3x – 195 out late
97. Quality – 200 – 3x – 600 – 620 starlight
98. War Front – 250 – 3x – 750 – 1,050
99. Nyquist – 40 – 6x – 240 – 300
100. Street – 75 – 2x – 150 – 100
101. Into – 175 – 5x – 875 – 600
102. Quality – 400 – 875 rna
103. Honor – 200 out late
104. Pio – 300 – 350
105. out
106. war 250 out late
107. run 300 – 50 rna
108. war 250 – 190 rna
109. out
110. med 200 – 370
111. malibu 500 – 150
112. tap 400 – 112
113. curl 750 – 250
114. out
115. qual 600 – out late
116. arr 300 – 750
117. med 600 – 250
118. uncle 400 – 500
119. qual 400 – 300 rna
120. qual 600 – 170 rna
121. into 700 – 1,000
122. uncle 1,000 – 390
123. cairo 200 – 230 rna
124. med 1,000 – 650
125. med 1,200 – 750 starlight
126. med 800 – 260
127. unc 600 – 200 rna
128. med 1,000 – late out
129. med 600 – 385 rna
130. uncl 600 – 270 rna
131. med 600 – late out
132. pio 500 – 180
133. tapit 400 – 160
134. bern 300 – 50 rna
135. into 800 – late out
136. out
137. pio 1,000 – 150
138. curl 500 – 600
139. connect 800 – late out
140. qual 400 – 400
141. gun 300 – 100
142. can 500 – 150
143. not this 300 – 300
144. unc 300 – 600
145. phar 400 – 475
146. qual 1,000 – late out
147. curl 400 – 400 rna
148. arr 300 – 410
149. tap 800 – 1,250
150. out
151. out
152. med 1,000 – late out
153. street 400 – 200
154. med 700 – late out
155. no nay 400 – 300
156. gun 300 – 510
157. qual 700 – 150
158. qual 1,000 – 400
159. out
160. pio 500 – 260
161. malibu 300 – 185
162. curlin 400 – 310 – eclipse
163. tap 400 – 340 rna
164. arr 500 – 300

I made 20 imaginary selections out of the Ocala sale in early June. Here are the results so far

1. Get Her Number – won maiden, 4th Del Mar Juvenile Turf
2. Brooklyn Strong – won maiden at Delaware
3. Avisse – 3rd at Del Mar
4. Whatmakesammyrun – 8th at. Saratoga
5. Bode’s Tipsy – 7th at Woodbine
6. 10 horses have published works
7. 3 horses are named, but not working
8. 3 horses are not named

I am not sure what to compare those results to. All those horses worked at the sale, so maybe I should be disappointed that 6 are now working. I selected horses with slow developing profiles, so I am surprised I already have 2 winners.

One of the reason’s to write this blog is that some folks might not believe the stories if I did not write them down.

On June 14th I wrote a post about a horse I called Quixote’s Bargain, when he was given a real name by his real owner it was Brooklyn Strong. The horse had reasonable work at Ocala and very nice pedigree on the female side. Nobody had any use for a son of Wicked Strong, so he sold for $5,000. The new owner, Mark Schwartz, was 0 for 24 according to Equibase.

Today, Brooklyn Strong won his first race at Delaware Park. It was a 1 mile race for $40,000 maiden claimers, he ran for trainer Danny Velasquez. The jockey was Abner Adomo. He only paid $7.60. He earned a decent equibase fig of 73.

The dam was a decent turf sprinter out of Medaglia d’Oro, and also producer two decent horses. The second dam was by the ultimate plodder Thunder Gulch, and she had produced nine winners.

I really don’t care that Bob Baffert won the Derby again. I don’t care that Chad Brown wins three turf races every bleeping day.

All I really care about is that Mark Schwartz went swimming with all the “sharks” at Ocala and came way the winner. He bought a horse with and underrated sire and a nice pedigree and an average work, and three months later he won a a race.

I want to nominate Mr. Schwartz for an Eclipse award for the best purchase at or under $5,000.

There is every chance this pick was pure blind luck. I picked 20 horses out of the 1200 on offer at Ocala, this is the second one to win.

I consider this one very small indication that there might be value in the under $10,000 price range at Ocala. I consider this a medium size indication that stamina pedigrees are on sale at the training sales.

Congratulations to Mark Schwartz, you are my new racing hero.

Who are the favorites in the Breeder’ Cup Juvenile races? Is it one of the stakes winners, or will a horse that has only won a maiden race the favorite. Could it still be a horse that has not started yet? This is a crazy year and many trainers are saying their best 2-year olds have yet to start. Who are the favoritess?

For the boys:

1. Jackie’s Warrior -Maclean’s Music – impressive winner of the Hopeful
2. Reinvestment Risk – Upstart – the favorite in the Hopeful
3. Sitting on Go – Brody’s Cause – late running Roman’s colt, Iroquois winner
4. Dr Schivel – Violence – now with Glatt, Del Mar Futurity winner
5. Superman Shaq – Shackleford – TDN Rising Star
6. Essential Quality – Tapit – TDN Rising Star – Saratoga maiden winner
7. Speilberg – Union Rags – $1,000,000 Starlight/Baffert runner
8. x
9. x
10. x

For the girls:

1. Princess Noor – Not This Time – Del Mar Debutante winner
2. Vequist – Nyquist – Butch Reid , Spinaway winner
3. Girl Daddy – Uncle Mo – Pocahontas Winner
4. Travel Column – Frosted – TDN Rising Star
5. Canata – Medalia d”Oro – TDN Rising Star
6. Beautiful Girl – Liam’s Map – Roman’ runner
7. x
8. x
9. x
10. x
11. x

In reality I am more likely to make a significant investment in horses next year. In many ways 2020 is more of a practice round. If I decide to buy a whole horse rather than a partnership, it might even be two years before I jump in.

I am happy with the 4 small partnerships I bought this spring, but in the long run I am leaning toward the yearling market.

But in all honestly I would probably rather own a entire $35,000 Midnight Storm, that own 5% of a $150,000 Street Sense or Declaration of War. However, I can also see the wisdom of owning part of 4-5 horses.

I also must admit that part of my hesitation is the general state of the US economy, and the continued speculative fever in the US stock market. It would be interesting to see the price of horses if the markets were down 50%.

I continue to own gold and gold stocks, Newmont (NEM) and Novagold (NG,) are my two favorites. I believe that US monetary policy is being conducted by madmen with little link to reality. In effect, we have de facto endorsed the crazy ideas of Modern Monetary Theory. If you don’t know that means, look it up, it is too frighting to write about. It not really about politics, both parties are too stupid to play in sandbox, much less manage a complex economy.

I am sure many folks will get tired of hearing “maybe next year”, but I cannot ignore the economic outlook.

The Dare to Dream guys decided not to enter Quick Tempo in the stakes race at Kentucky Downs that will be held today. Looking at the PP’s I think we would have been 4th choice behind two Wesley Ward killers, and a solid Assmusen horse. If one of the others sneaks in and wins, I will be a little sad, but overall I think the Faber’s made the right choice.

Quick Tempo’s turf work was solid, but not great. Watching a few days of racing I am not sure speed is that valuable at Kentucky Downs going 6.5 furlongs because the stretch is significantly uphill. Given the power outages and gate mishaps, avoiding Kentucky Downs is most likely the right choice.

Right now there is no allowance race for 2-year olds in the Churchill condition book so all we can do is wait for an extra to be written. I know this can be a frustrating process.

Blonde on Tap is point for a race this week at Arlington.

The other two horses are in recovering from injuries.

One horse doing good, one doing ok, two with problems. This is a good practical example of why to not choose just one horse. Four might be a very good number.

West Point sent out an e-mail offer on 7 horses about 24 hours after the sale ended. I am not sure if all 7 are still available, only 3 were shown as “x % remaining”. West Point does send out a text minutes after a purchase. This gives existing partners an advantage because they have access to meetings where WP discusses which horse they are targeting. Some might consider that “unfair”, but to me it is a reasonable business practice.

The e-mail has lots of good information on each horse, and an excellent picture. It is interesting to look through the 7 horses and choose the picture you like best.

Judging just by the photos I like the Connect horse best of all. I like the longer body and longer neck. I am sure others might prefer the stronger looking shoulder and backside of the Street Boss colt. I think i will try to find a Connect at Keeneland for my imaginary portfolio.

Overall I like the Street Sense colt the best. I think Street Sense is a sire that is being a little overlooked. I also like the female family best, Giant’s Causeway, Seeking the Gold, and AP Indy.

5% would cost about $20,000, but that includes training expenses through 15 months (at $5,000/month) that puts the real price maybe closer to $16,000/$17,000. That is a lot of money, but this is a serious horse.

Right now I think the Eclipse horse has a better chance to earn a better percentage return (the benefits of a NY cannot be overlooked), but the West Point horse could make it to the Derby.

Four month ago I could not make that simple comparison, today I can reach that conclusion fairly quickly.

Eclipse only bought one horse at the sale, but it was an interesting one. The horse has many of the characteristics I am looking for. The only problem is timing. I would hate to jump at this offer before the Keeneland sale even occurs. What if some group buys a Midnight Storm or Gormley that I really like?

Eclipse bought hip #45 for $115,000, here is what I like:

1. Eclipse struck early before that sale “heated up”, as most commentators agreed. This was the only horse they bought
2. West Point went strictly dirt, while Eclipse went for a turf horse
3. the colt is a NY-bred
4. this was the only Declaration of War offspring at the sale, these “orphans” are often interesting
5. West Point’s Decorated Invader shows Declaration of War is not a complete failure
6. Declaration of War is “out of favor” because he has been shipped to Japan
7. Declaration of War adds Rahy to War Front, so this should be a stamina sire
8. the dam is by Unbridled Song and ran a 95 Equibase fig for chad Brown during her brief 8 race career
9. the horse has an impressive appearance
10. the price was “right”, not too much to suggest overpaying, but enough to suggest this horse was good looking
11. well known owner Robert LaPenta bought 50%, why is he even bothering with such an inexpensive horse
12. Eclipse is offering 3% for $5,550 (marking the horse up to $180,000)

If this offer came after Keeneland I would almost certainly accept, but right now i want to wait for something better.

It is often more important to know what you don’t know.

In a summary post last week I estimated that I had already learned 20% of what I needed to know to buy a successful horse.

The first 20% I have learned comes from watching the 2-year old in trainings sales and thinking about valuation, and also observing how the various partnerships operate.

What else I need to learn:

1. another 10% will come from watching the remaining sales (yearlings and then weanlings and breeding stock this fall/winter)
2. another 10% will come from learning about the analytics used by people at the sales (heart measurements and stride analysis)
3. another 10% will be learning more about the breeders and consigners of the sale horses
4. another 10% will be actually meeting folks in person and asking them “tough” questions
5. another 20% will be learning to judge a horse’s physical appearance/conformation (this may take some time, if it is possible at all)
6. the last 20% are what Donald Rumsfeld described as the “unknown unknowns”, things about this business that I have yet to understand their importance

I like to keep lists. This list keeps track of when real serious racing people agree with some of my more outrageous opinions.

Elliot Walden (the top operating guy at Winsar) did an interview with TDN discussing the success of the their horses in the recent Kentucky Oaks. When asked later how the Fasig-Tipton sale went, the first thing he mentioned was the purchase of a $200,000 colt by Midnight Storm. The buyer was listed as Maverick Racing, which I did not know was related to Winstar.

I know I looked a little crazy when I put Midnight Storm at the top of my list of 150 sires about 10 days ago. My list combined ability with value (MS fee is only $10,000). To have an industry leader like Walden say nice thing publicly about MS is reassuring. To have them spend 20x on a Midnight Storm colt is even better.

Not surprisingly the Winstar folks were willing to $200,000 because the Indian Charlie dam of Hip #534 gives the colt the precocity that a stallion prospect needs. They did not even want other MS that sold for $185,000 where the second dam was the amazing Sharp Cat. I was able to pay only $35,000 for my MS because the mare was by stamina influence Ghostzapper.

The first “Crazy?? – Maybe Not” post came when Jerry Crawford the top guy at Donegal stated that “value” was the key to selecting horses.

Anyone who has ever played fantasy baseball or football knows the value of sleepers. A sleeper is a selection that the rest of your competitors might not fully appreciate.

The yearling sales are very much like a fantasy baseball draft, except for the fact that you actually have to feed the “players” you select.

Steve Byk had an interesting interview with Christie Debarnardis (a writer for TDN) on his daily horse racing podcast. It was a good discussion about the first day of the Fasig-Tipton sale. Steve is knowledgable guy that besides being a broadcaster, also runs a small ownership group called Dee Tee Stables.

https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/part1christie-debarnardis-frank-lucarelli/

Near the end of the conversation Steve throws out the idea that he thinks Midnight Storm is a “sleeper” new stallion, and then Christie agrees and mentions that Gormley might also be a sleeper. I am always looking for conformation that I am not completely crazy.

Christie also mentioned that some of the new sires had sold well at the weanling sales. This is part of the sales game I know nothing about, and will have to learn. This really is a year round business.

The first few days of the Keeneland sale will be fun to watch. Last year the median price was about $350,000 for the first 3 days. Medium priced sires like Twirling Candy do not even have a single hip until day 4.

Just for fun let’s think about what horses we might “steal” for “only’ $200,000. Liz Crow tells and interesting story in the Ten Strike podcast about finding some bargains horses in the first few days that are “in over their heads”.

Here are a few ideas:

1. Candy Ride – 1, 80, 109
2. Gun Runner – 9, 141, 156, 175, 223, 224
3. Classic Empire – 8
4. Connect – 198
5. Frosted – 197
6. Practical Joke – 61
7. Street Sense – 35, 46, 153, 192
8. Union Rags – 96

Maybe one will “fall through the cracks” and I can steal it for $200,000

Day 2:

1. Air Force Blue – 371
2. Cairo Prince – 416
3. Caravaggio – 302, 340,
4. Frosted – 293, 376, 394
5. Gun Runner – 260, 271, 351, 352, 399
6. Honor Code – 354
7. Street Sense – 272
8. Union Rags – 301, 429, 436

Day 2 was very much like day 1 of the Fasig-Tipton sale. Of the 7 horses I was interested in 3 were RNAed, and two were no shows.

Once again if had walked in with $50,000 I would have been very happy to buy Hip #373 a Point of Entry filly out of a solid producing Rahy mare for only $40,000. This is one of my favorite sires, and this horse would make a good broodmare.

I went slightly out of control and paid too much for some of my second choices. I bought the most expensive Air Force Blue for $145,000, but I love the Dynaformer pedigree of the dam. I also paid up for an expensive Gormley, $115,000, but second dam is the producer of Peace Rules. In total I filled 6 of 30 slots, and will get the rest at Keeneland next week.

1. Twirling Candy filly $190,000, big 2nd dam
2. Air Force Blue turf filly $145,000, big 2nd dam
3. Gormley colt $115,000, big 2nd dam
4. Mclean’s Music colt $70,000, Malibu Moon dam
5. Point of Entry turf filly $40,000, nice Rahy producing dam
6. Midnight Storm filly $35,000, lots of distance pedigree

6 horses for an average of about $100,000

West Point bought 6 as well:

1. Street Boss $140,000
2. Connect $120,000
3. Street Sense $150,000
4. More Than Ready $125,000
5. Kantharos $30,000
6. Dialed In $82,000

Let’s see who does better.

I also filled 3 of 10 spots in the “what if I am wrong” portfolio with Practical Joke, Unified, and Munnings.

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1. Starlight bought 8
2. Donegal bought a $450,000 Kitten’s Joy
3. Myracehorse.com bought 2
4. Centennial bought 4
5. Eclipse bought only one
6. McPeek bought a bunch

The big disaster was Frosted, the top seller went for only $105,000 and many were RNAed and withdrawn.

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West Point did partner with the Abaugh family to buy Hip #618 for $500,000 at nice looking Giant’s Causeway colt.

TDN had a nice long story about the sale. Given the difficult world conditions, I guess everyone should be happy the sale even occurred. There were a few quotes about prices being down 25-35%, and a few whispers about it being worse for the lower price ranges. The buyback rate was still around 33%. Now. I am beginning to wonder if the late withdrawals are done to prevent a higher buyback rate.

In the real world everyone should realize that TDN needs to sell advertising to stay in business. In a perfect world I would like to find a story with a more critical assessment of what I just witnessed.

If I had walked into Day 1 of the Fasig-Tipton sale with a real $50,000 budget, I would have been thrilled to walk out with Hip #185.

I love the Midnight Storm story. I love the pedigree I get from Ghostzapper and Hansel on the dam side. I know the May 31 birthday will make this filly slow to mature, but that is ok by me. Maybe there will be something better at Keeneland next week, but why wait. I got the sire I wanted, and the stamina pedigree to back it up for 3.5x a low stud fee. This would be a mare that I be happy to breed for many years.

If I had a reliable bloodstock agent tell me this horse had a decent appearance and a clean set of x-rays, this would have been a very affordable horse. She is on the small side, but let’s see what she looks like in 4 months.

Even if I had walked in with $100,000 I would have been excited with this horse and room to buy another.

You just have to face the reality that half the horses you want are not really available. This is frustrating, but not insurmountable.

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Back in the real world I gave the West Point purchase of the Street Sense colt some more thought. I think I will call and get more details.

I view Street Sense as one of those sires that is just too expensive at $75,000, but maybe he should at least be at the top of my too expensive list. His pedigree has an interesting tie to His Majesty. Street Cry, his father, certainly has a euro-pedigree to admire. Maybe Street Sense gets a little overlooked. His median yearling sold for only $125,000 last year. I always viewed him as a precocity sire because of his BC Juvenile win, but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree as well.

The female side of the West Point purchase is not all that exciting. Giant’s Causeway, Seeking the Gold, and AP Indy are all great broodmare sires, but there is no racing ability to speak of. The dam won only a $16,000 maiden claimer, and the 2nd dam won only a MSW at Finger Lakes.

In fact you could view this pedigree as almost a classic ANTI-RESULTS pedigree. Why pay up for tangible results like Grade 1 wins, when you can get great pedigree for a cheaper price. I will have to give this some thought, but it similar to what Starlight and Donegal were doing.

You can tell this is also a very strong looking individual just glancing at the walking video.

A little honesty made me feel much better about day one of the sale.

In a TDN article an agent admitted that the buyback rate in the NY-bred part of the sale (which was over 50%), can be attributed to the breeders having more opportunities to race these horses and reap all the generous benefits of the NY-bred program. This is the first admission I have read that racing rather than selling is real option for many sellers

It still makes me worry that the only way I can buy a horse is to “overpay”. I will keep a close eye on what happens to these horses over the next few years.

Fasig-Tipton also made a real effort to post the name of the buyer about 30 minutes after the fall of the hammer. At Ocala this often took over 2 hours

West Point was nice enough to invite prospective clients to a conference call where they discussed their plans and process. The highlights were:

1. We buy athletes, pedigree just tells us what we have to pay. At least they are honest about it, but this suggests the best buys are horses with little pedigree.
2. Access to the horses and trainers are what the experience is all about, which in a COVID world is limited. They were nice enough to invite prospective clients to attend the sales next year.
3. They complained that some horses were over-prepped for the sales and that they preferred ones with “hay bellies”.
4. They seemed to put great reliance on who the consigners were. This I need to learn much more about.
5. They thought prices were down significantly from last year

I was not thrilled by the horses they bought. They were all toward the sprint/precocity side of the spectrum. The Kantharos is clearly a sprinter. The Dialed In is from a Grand Slam mare, and the More Than Ready is well, a More Than Ready. I guess the Street Sense horse is interesting, and deserves a little more thought.

Eclipse bought one uninteresting horse, myracehorse.com bought two I was not thrilled with (chasing Into Mischief) , and Starlight bought two expensive horses. Coach Parcells bought two horses.

I was disappointed in the first day of yearling sales. Once again two of my top five horse just never showed up. They were not listed as outs, but they never appeared in the ring.

This is a very frustrating issue that I need to understand. I fear that the consigners are not playing fair.

Three other were RNAed and no private deals have been shown. When is horse sale not really a horse sale? When only 172 of 330 horses are sold, that is what happened today.

Here is what I have for tomorrow:

1. Midnight Storm #591
2. Keen Ice #510
3. AFB #526
4. Frosted #410
5. Violence #606
6. Point of Entry #373
7. Practical Joke #425

If a partnership were to buy I would have to consider.

I just hope they all show up.

I will add to these lists as the sales progress, both Fasig-Tipton (FT) and Keeneland (KE)

Ten colts to win the Kentucky Derby:

1. Gormley by Soul of Fashion – Perfect Soul – 115 – SGV – FT
2. Maclean’s Music by Dubai Moon – Malibu Moon – $70 – Chalk – FT
3. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – $80 Craig Wheeler – KE3
4. Maclean’s Music by Dazzling by Galileo – $100 Woods – KE5
5. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140 Heiligbrodt – KE5
6. x
7. x
8. x
9. x
10. x

Ten fillies to win the Kentucky Oaks:

1. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – $35- Davison – FT
2. Twirling Candy – Shaaraat by Distorted Humor – $190 -Courtland – FT
3. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – $75 – Parsley – KE4
4. Mastery – Helensvale by Elusive Quality – $240 Breeze Easy – KE3
5. x
6. x
7. x
8. x
9. x
10. x

Ten turf horses to win the Sword Dancer:

1. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – 145 – Rockingham – FT
2. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – 40 – Hayden -PS – FT
3. Air Force Blue – Secret Agenda by Malibu Moon – 250 – Eclipse – KE1
4. Temple City – Eagle Island by Fusaichi Pegasus – $120 Debbie Easter – KE5
5. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini – $50 WSS Racing – KE5
6. x
7. x
8. x
9. x
10. x

Ten “What if I am Wrong horses”

1. Practical Joke – Sky Saver by Super Saver – 75 – Whitehead PS – FT
2. Munnings – Simply Magic by Lemon Drop Kid – 75 -Bianculli – FT
3. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – $50 – McPeek – FT
4. Pioneerof the Nile – Purely Hot by Pure Prize – $300 – Tommy Town -KE2
5. Unified – Goomada Byda Sea by Sea Hero – $70 Matt Dohman – KE4
6. Violence – Lemon Belle by Lemon Drop Kid – $125 Schwartz – KE4
7. Practical Joke – Devious d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro $45 Billy Williams – KE5
8. Unified – Mesana by Mizzen Mast – $50 Parker Place Racing – KE5
9. Practical Joke – Rock and Glory by Rock Hard Ten – $60 Victor Martinez
10. Mastery – Forensic by Medaglia d’Oro – $62 Lynnwood Stable KE5

Ten miscellaneous ideas that do not fit anywhere else:

1. Tourist by Sea Pegasus -Fusaichi Pegasus – 20 – Sanchez – FT
2. Midnight Storm by Lady Siphonica – Siphon – $20 – Parrish – FT
3. Tapit by Odeliz – Falco – $200 – Susan Bunning -KE2
4. Noble Mission – Volver by Danehill Dancer – $30 Schwartz – KE4
5. Tonalist – Ruthian by Rahy – $25 Stone Farm – KE4
6. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado – $40 Schwartz – KE4
7. Honor Code – Sarah Her Highness by Milwaukee Brew – $60 Austin Gustaafson – KE5
8. x
9. x
10. x

Interesting horses to watch:

1. Street Sense by Mia and Molly – Giant’s Causeway – 150 – West Point – FT
2. Dialed In by Silken Lily – Grand Slam – 82 – West Point – FT
3. Tiznow by Eternal Grace – Gilded Time – 300 – Sackatoga – FT
4. Declaration of War by Riolama – Unbridled Song – Eclipse – FT
5. Classic Empire by Rever de Vous – Distorted Humor – Liz Crow -FT
6. Cairo Prince by Light of a Star – Muqtarib – Coach Parcells – FT
7. Air Force Blue by Pearl in the Sand – Footinthesand – McKeever – FT
8. Midnight Storm by Chickasaw Gal – Storm Cat – 200 – Maverick – FT
9. Midnight Storm by Extra Sharo – Cherokee Run 185 – Nicoma – FT
10. Gormley by Lady Dora – Lord at War – 14 RNA – FT
11. Twirling Candy by Oenophile – Pulpit 55 RNA – FT
12. Unified by Black Escort – Southern Halo 35 RNA – FT
13. Tonalist by License to Speed – Thunder Gulch 35 RNA – FT
14. Twirling Candy by Unique Ride – Tale of the Cat 150 – Starlight – FT
15. Connect by Vindy City – Vindication – 120 – West Point – FT
16. Maclean’s Music by War Relic – Pulpit – 400 – Starlight – FT
17. Keen Ice by Bourbonesque – Dynaformer – 85 RNA – FT
18. Gormley by Green Eyed Cat – Tale of the Cat – 160 Quarter Pole – FT

RNA and no show horses to keep track of:

NS= no show

1. Gormley by Lady Dora – 14
2. Air Force Blue by Honoria – NS
3. Practical Joke by Lemon Gala – NS
4. Unified by Black Escort – 35
5. Tonalist by License to Speed – 35

I am writing a chronicle of my quest to buy a successful race horse. This quest needed a name so I christened it “Quixote Racing Stable”.

Don Quixote was a fictional character whose idealism was “defeated and rendered useless by common reality”. There is a significant chance that any horse racing story will end in tragedy, it is a very difficult and opaque business. The dream is buy a horse that wins a few nice races and can at least breakeven on a financial basis.

The story really begins when Lone Star Park was built in suburban Dallas, Texas in 1997. I was in the middle of career in investments, and spent most of my spare time practicing and playing golf. I had also learned to be a semi-pro card counting blackjack player, but I quickly discovered that handicapping horse races was much more interesting. My horse racing knowledge grew quickly because my friends owned a $900,000+ winning filly named Biogio’s Rose.

My handicapping gave a me good understanding of breeding and different owners, but I had never really understood how the sales worked. I had met Cot Campbell (the founding father of partnerships) at a seminar year ago, so I always watched from a distance the horses owned by West Point, Eclipse, Dogwood, and Donegal. I always knew that someday I would try to evaluate each different partnership group. But most of my time was spent trying to hit pick 5’s and pick 6’s, and I never had time to investigate the partnerships.

Then along came the COVID pandemic. As we were being asked to stay indoors, they were just starting the breeze show for the second 2-year old in training sale at Ocala. I had about 10 days to develop a reasonable strategy to pick horses from that sale which occurred on June 9-12.

I used my 40+ years of investment experience to build a selection process for horses. I did not consult any horse “experts”. I knew I could not afford the horses with fast works, so I decided to choose horses that worked above average, but whose pedigree would suggest they would work in a below average time. In simple terms I tried to pick “plodders” that worked 10.1, not sprinters that worked 9.4 or 10.0. I also tried to select sires that were “out of favor”. This is not particularly sophisticated, but it was better than nothing. I left the sale with a list of 20 horses that I “bought” with imaginary money. I repeated this idea at the Timonium sale and the July Ocala sale. I am now tracking about 50 two year olds.

At the same time I was also watching which horses West Point, Eclipse, and all the other partnership were choosing at these sales. I now had a much better perspective to evaluate their offers than I had when I started this quest. I chose to make two small investments with a group out of Chicago called Dare to Dream Stables. I bought 2% of a son of Tapizar, and a daughter of Tapiture. I also made small investments with Hibiscus and Pewter Stables. One of those horses, Quick Tempo, won his first race and might being entered in a $500,000 stakes race at Kentucky Downs.

The whole experience with the two year old in training sales has begun to push me toward the idea that yearling sales are a better way to buy horses. Conversations with a number of partnership guys also contributed to this opinion. Groups like Donegal and Ten Strike focus almost exclusively on the yearling sales. Yearling vs. training sales will be a key decision going forward. Just to be complete I have also made 3 imaginary claims, and have watched the guys at Zilla Racing makes some claims at Saratoga.

Obviously I could just hire a bloodstock agent to buy me a horse, or I could pick the partnership with the slickest website. That would destroy all the enjoyment. I really like the effort of trying to figure out how to buy a good horse. So far I have learned about 30% of what I need to buy a good horse. When COVID ends I want travel and meet some folks in person.

Just like in the investment world, picking the right strategy is important. In the investment world it is the perpetual conflict between growth and value investing. In horse racing the battle is between speed/precocity and stamina. I took up horse racing to avoid the investing world, yet I am dragged back into almost exactly the same fight. In the investing world I carry the flag for value investing. I have yet to decide on the best horse racing strategy, but my initial lean is toward the stamina side.

The quest is really about learning a completely new discipline at the advanced age of 60+. Perhaps I am just “charging at windmills”, in the spirit of don Quixote. Hopefully, I can learn enough to make a successful investment in a race horse.

Now I understand how some of these yearlings sell for $1,000,000 or more. Two prospective buyers “fall in love” with a particular horse and just keep bidding.

I have fallen in love with hip #10 at the Fasig-Tipton sale. The filly is by Gormley out of a stakes winning Lord at War mare. I will not be outbid in my mythical world. It seems silly to jump at the 10th horse with another 4990 yet to be sold, but if I were “playing with live ammo” that might be exactly what I would do.

Let’s review:

Gormley was a nice horse for John Sheriffs. He was bred by Castletaon Lyons and then RNAed out of the September Keeneland sale for $150,000 (hip#500). He ended up with Jerry Moss in what was called a private sale. Mr. Moss bred and won the Derby with Giacomo. He was a record executive that was responsible for discovering trumpet player Herb Alpert. I grew listening to my parent’s Herb Alpert records on the phonograph.

Gormley broke his maiden in September, and then won the G1 Frontrunner Stakes at 1 1/16 miles a month later. He was 3rd choice in the BC Juvenile, but blew the break rushed up and faded to 7th. He won the Santa Anita Derby the next spring. He got to 4th at the top of stretch in the Derby, but had some traffic issues and finished 9th. Gormley was bumped at the break in the Belmont and finished a well beaten 4th.

Gormley is an interesting mix of precocity and stamina, and the stud fee is only $7,500 at Spendthrift Farms. He is out of a Bernstien mare and the second dam was by Kingmambo, so there are some real hints of turf ability here. I still like the Midnight Storm story a little better, buy Gormley is a close second.

The dam of hip #10 is Lady Dora. She was a nice yearling in 1998, selling for $150,000. She was trained by Mike Matz and won the G3 Peebles and ran a 106 Equibase fig in the Long Island Handicap at 1 1/2 miles on turf. Her sire was turf champion Lord at War. The sire of the 2nd dam was Runaway Groom (a Travers winner).

When I came up with a dam rating system for the two year old sales, the best dams got 55-60 points out of 100. Lady Dora checks in at 83 on my system. My model does favor stamina over precocity.

Pedigree guru Alan Porter’s first two suggestions for Gormley are Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat mares, but is third choice is mares by Blushing Groom. Lady Dora mother’s grandfather was Blushing Groom. The nick is rated as B by TrueNicks.

She is a also a New York bred. She does not look very mature in her walking video, but it is difficult for me to make that judgement.

I would love to get her for $20,000, but I will pay $200,000, I say bravely playing right now with imaginary dollars. We will find out soon the sale is only 30 minutes away.

No Santa, I don’t want a nice Into Mischief or American Pharoah colt for Christmas, all I really want is a daughter of Gormley.

My second choice among the NY-breds is hip #157. This is a May 8th foal. This Air Force Blue colt is out of a small stakes winning Sadler’s Wells mare. There is plenty of distance pedigree here. I worry the AFB are too sprint oriented so this is an ideal pedigree. The nick is rated A, and Coolmore’s website mentions Sadler’s Wells mares as a good match. This could be an expensive horse, but it is my favorite AFB. I would pay up here

Later in the day my favorite Midnight Storm comes up at hip #185, but I do not like that dam as much. I hope this one will be cheap becasue it is a May 31th foal, but I will still pay up if needed

Hip #192 is another nice Gormley, and #202 a nice Tonalist, I would maybe pay to $60,000 here

Hip #200 is my favorite Practical Joke for “what is I am wrong” portfolio because it is a Lemon Drop Kid mare, but also like #106 a Unified with some Euro pedigree.

If West Point, Eclipse, or any other partnership buys any of these 7 horses, I would have to buy a piece. That is 7 out of 330, but you never know.

All you can do is try to find another piece to the puzzle every day.

Today I got an excellent e-mail from the guys at Kenwood Racing. I would highly suggest getting on their mailing list. They have also had had great racing success at Monmouth.

The e-mail highlighted a website called pastthewire.com

There are many interesting articles at this sight, one that caught my attentions immediately was:

https://pastthewire.com/can-a-good-bloodstock-agent-help-an-owner-make-a-profit/

The subject of bloodstock agents is something I will eventually get around to, but this article is quite eye opening.

Another article makes some claims about partnership performance that I want to investigate further before I comment on them.

Some of the best handicapping books written years ago were by Mark Cramer. He stressed the need for creativity. One of his best books was Kinkier Handicapping. One chapter discussed building a portfolio of “kinky trainers” that can win with unusual horses the public might not understand.

I look for young trainers that the public does not fully appreciate. Often these younger guys and gals are slowly getting better horses from their new owners. I especially watch trainers that are active at the sales. I also include a few experienced trainers that have some of my partnership horses. Here is my list of trainers:

1. Kate DeMasi – Penn and Maryland for Pewter Stables
2. Steve Klesaris – East coast for Hibiscus Stables
3. Chris Davis – Arlington/Churchill for Dare to Dream
4. Amira Chichakly – New York took over for Contessa
5. Jeremiah O’Dwyer – Maryland, active at sales
6. Matt Shirer – Churchill/Ellis
7. Brittany Russell – Maryland
8. Kelsey Danner – Tampa/NY/Kentucky
9. Jordan Blair – Kentucky/Indiana
10. Brian Williamson – Arlington/Oaklawn, for the Vainer family

Brittany Russell got up at 35-1 on the last weekend at Saratoga, but it was race 6, and not in the pick 5’s.

My next 5 top rated sires are:

1. Tonalist
2. Air Force Blue
3. Blame
4. Gormley
5. Noble Mission

Why do I like Tonalist so much

1. Tonalist is my favorite of the Belmont winning “plodders”. The stud fee is only $15,000
2. The female family is by Pleasant Colony, my favorite distance influence
3. Tonalist ran a 100+ Beyer in the Met Mile, so he has some speed

Why do I like Air Force Blue so much:

1. Here I am listening to a story told by bloodstock agent Randy Bradshaw on the the Steve Byk radio podcast. Bradshaw was the guy who picked out Nadal. He really liked what he saw in the physical appearance of the AFB’s last year. That was reflected in the prices, but with a stud fee of only $15,000 you can afford to pay up.
2. I like what Maria’s Mon contributes on the dam side of the pedigree
3. I liked what I saw from some of the horses I saw at the training sales, but AFB does not have a star 2-year old yet
4. Maybe this is too much of a “feel” pick, but I will allow myself one

Why do I like Blame so much:

1. I found Blame while trying to find something at Timonium. His horses develop late, so the pinhookers stay away
2. Nadal is the model, he was only a $65,000 yearling
3. Obviously as a BC Classic winner he will get distance runners
4. This is Blame’s eighth crop. Sometimes folks just get bored with certain sires. The fee is a pricey $35,000.
5. There are no sons of Blame at stud, maybe I can find one

Why do I like Gormley so much:

1. Gormley is a very inexpensive son of Malibu Moon, grandson of AP Indy, with a stud fee of only $7,500
2. The second dam is by Kingmambo, and the third dam is by Strawberry Road, so there is a stamina element to the pedigree.
3. Gormley only ran in California, so the Kentucky folks are biased against him.
4. I want to try one bargain basement sire. If I owned a cheaper mare, this might be my choice for daddy.
5. This is a slight attempt to get some speed/precocity into my selections

Why do I like Noble Mission so much:

1. How can you go wrong with full brother to Frankel
2. Code of Honor is the only standout so far, but is a great model as he was only a $70,000 yearling.
3. I hope that this crop of mares will produce some better results
4. I have to try one Euro-pedigree, and this is the best available

How can any semi-sane person study the horse breeding/racing business for 100 days and conclude that their 5 favorites sires are:

1. Midnight Storm
2. Point of Entry
3. Twirling Candy
4. Maclean’s Music
5. Summer Front

Shouldn’t any reasonable list look something like:

1. Tapit
2. American Pharoah
3. Into Mischief (the sire of Audible)
4. Not This Time (the top juvenile sire so far)
5. Arrogate (the “best” new sire for 2020)

Only a crazy and arrogant bastard would insist that the top list is best.

Let me explain:

40+ years of investing experience has taught me you cannot just buy what the other guys are buying. I have studied the investment business almost every day for the past forty years. Some of the best professional investors purchased the research service, Behind the Numbers, that I helped design and write. With all that experience, if you asked me what 5 stocks to buy right now it would be:

1. Ardmore Shipping – ASC
2. Cameco – CCJ
3. Mosaic – MOS
4. Wabash National – WNC
5. Walgreen’s – WBA

It most certainly would not be:

1. Amazon
2. Apple
3. Netflix
4. Tesla
5. Microsoft

I would tell anyone who asked, professional investor or grandmother, to buy the top list and avoid the bottom list.

I am proudly a crazy, arrogant bastard.

Back to horse racing. Why do I like Midnight Storm so much:

1. Pioneerof the Nile has been a great sire, but his yearlings will cost on average $300,000 or more
2. American Pharoah would be a great substitute, but his yearlings will also be too expensive
3. Cairo Prince has been successful, but is still too popular
4. I fear that even Pionnerof the Nile’s other new son, Classic Empire will be too popular because he was so precocious (winning the BC juvenile)
5. Yes I am settling for the fifth choice, but for only a $10,000 stud fee I am getting great value.
6. I like what Midnight Storm’s female family brings, namely stamina through Bertrando.
7. Midnight Storm was accomplished on turf and dirt
8. Midnight Storm was a very fast miler that could also get 1 1/4 miles if needed
9. Midnight Storm was very sound, he made 27 starts
10. Midnight Storm was raced by relatively low profile connections, Richie Baltas and Little Red Feather.
11. Taylor Made Stallions did a great job with Not This Time last year, I will trust their judgement this year

Why do I like Point of Entry so much:

1. The established turf sires like War Front and Kitten’s Joy are too expensive
2. My handicapping experience has taught me that there is nothing better in long distance racing that offspring of Dynaformer
3. The female family brings in my favorite late developing stamina influence Pleasant Colony
4. I think there is a chance Point of Entry offspring could also run on dirt
5. I am not sure that Shug ever developed Point of Entry to the top of his potential
6. The price is right for only $15,000

Why do I like Twirling Candy so much:

1. I love the Candy Ride story, but i cannot afford the $100,000 stud fee
2. Twirling Candy is the most successful stamina horse by his sire, almost winning the Pacific Classic
3. The female family bring long distance running Chester House to the party
4. The fee is a little high at $40,000, but hopefully everyone will be chasing the yearlings of Candy Ride’s other son Gun Runner.
5. Twirling Candy’s should run on turf and dirt
6. Still don’t believe me try: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/no-illusion-about-breakout-summer-for-twirling-candy/

Why do I like Maclean’s Music so much:

1. Mclean’s Music is difficult to understand because he only made one start, but what a start it was with a Beyer of 114.
2. Distorted Humor is a difficult sire to gage, he can produce sprinters or distance horses like Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer
3. Seth Klarman is one of the great value investors of our time. Mr. Klarman was a buyer of our research. In horse racing, he took a chance with MM going a distance and got Preakness winning Cloud Computing.
4. I fear that Jackie’s Warrior could ruin our chances of getting MM’s cheap if he wins the Hopeful at Saratoga today

Why do I like Summer Front so much;

1. Obviously War Front’s are too expensive, but for SF the price is only $10,000
2. The female family brings El Prado and Sadler’s Wells to the party
3. Ete Indien certainly shows the SF’s can run on dirt
4. There are other son’s of War Front to choose from, but none has as much stamina influence as SF

This is my ranking of the sires that will generate the best “rates of return” over the next few years. It is a ranking of the best sires to invest in. It combines what I expect to pay for a yearling, and how I expect the offspring to perform.

Obviously this list is extremely subjective, but you have to start somewhere. You have to develop some process to winnow down the list of 5000 available yearlings into a manageable group that you will choose from. You have to decide what you like, and what you don’t like, and what is in your price range.

In my first post I started with a short list 10 sires I was interested in based on my handicapping experience. The list below is based on what have learned in my first 100 days.

Every sire with with more than 5 Keeneland yearlings:

rank, my rating, sire, 2019 stud fee, 2019 median yearling, 2019 average yearling, sire’s sire, best horse

TE = too expensive, WI = What if I am Wrong, fr = freshman sire

1. A+ ….Midnight Storm – 15, fr, fr – Pioneerof the Nile
2. A+ ….Point of Entry – 15, 23, 39 – Dynaformer – Analyze It
3. A+ ….Twirling Candy – 40, 70, 94 – Candy Ride – Collusion Illusion
4. A+ ….Maclean’s Music – 20, 35, 55 – Distorted Humor – Jackie’s Warrior
5. A+ ….Summer Front -10, 13, 34 – War Front- Speaktomeofsummer, Ete Indian
6. A+ ….Tonalist – 15, 29, 49 – Tapit – Tonalist Shape
7. A+ ….Air Force Blue – 15, 55, 90 – War Front – Mashnee Girl
8. A+ ….Blame – 35, 35, 60 – Arch – Acre, Abscond, Shotski
9. A+ ….Gormley – 8, fr, fr – Malibu Moon
10. A …..Shamen Ghost – 8 – Ghostzapper
11. A …..Noble Mission – 20, 20, 43 – Galileo
12. A …..Palace Malice – 25, 45 – Curlin
13. A …..Keen Ice – 20 – Curlin
14. A …..Lemon Drop Kid – 20, 35, 64 – Kingmambo
15. A …..Tourist – 8, 15, 27 – Tiznow
16. A- ……Mshawish – 10, 25, 40 – Medaglia d’Oro
17. A- ……Vancouver – 30, – Medaglia d’Oro
18. A- ……Tapiture – 10, 23 – Tapit
19. A- ……Tapizar – 10, 25 – Tapit
20. A- …..Frosted – 40, 160, 220 – Tapit
21. WI …..Practical Joke – 25 – Into Mischief
22. WI …..Unified – 10 – Candy Ride
23. WI …..Munnings – 30, 50 – Speightstown
24. WI …..Violence – 25, 35 – Medaglia d’Oro
25. WI ….Bal a Bali – 15 – Put It Back
26. B+ …..Anchor Down – 8, 38, 44 – Tapit
27. B+ …..Ironicus – 5, 15, 17 – Distorted Humor
28. B+ …..We Miss Artie – 5, 3, 9 – Artie Schiller
29. B+ …..Dialed In – 20, 35 – Mineshaft
30. B+ …..Super Saver – 25, 29 – Maria’s Mon
31. B+ …..Carpe Diem – 15, 50 – Giant’s Causeway
32. B+ …..Mizzen Mast – 8, 10 – Cozzene
33. B+ …..Flintshire – 15, 22 – Dansili
34. B+ …..Temple City – 8, 11 – Dynaformer
35. B+ …..Karakontie – – Bernstein
36. B+ …..Big Blue Kitten – 10, 3 – Kitten’s Joy
37. B+….. Jack Milton – 7, 4, 8 – War Front
38. B+ …..Bayern – 15, 14 – Oflee Wild
39. B+ …..Orb – 10, 24 – Malibu Moon
40. B+ ……Danzing Candy – – Twirling Candy
41. B+ ……American Freedom – 8 – Pulpit
42. B Bodemiester – – Empire Maker
43. B. Sky Mesa – 15 – Pulpit
44. B Midshipman – 8, 20, 31 – Unbridled Song
45. B Will Take Charge – 15, 25, 30 – Unbridled Song
46. B Exaggerator. – 20, 55, 85 – Curlin
47. B Mucho Macho Man – – Macho Uno
48. B Cupid – 10 – Tapit
49. B Upstart – 10, 40, 60 – Flatter
50. B Brody’s Cause – 8 – Giant’s Causeway
51. B Creative Cause – 15 – Giant’s Causeway
52. B. Cross Traffic – 15 – Unbridled Song
53. B Wicked Strong – – Hard Spun
54. B Mr Speaker – – Pulpit
55. B Connect – 20 – Curlin
56. B Klimt – 10 – Quality Road
57. B- English Channel – 35 – Smart Strike
58. B- Carvaggio – – Scat Daddy
59. B- No Nay Never – – Scat Daddy
60. B- Hit it a Bomb – – War Front
61. B- Declaration of War – – War Front
62. B- Animal Kingdom – – Lep
63. B- Cairo Prince – 25 – Pioneerof the Nile
64. B- Broken Vow – 25 – Unbridled
65. C+ Not This Time – 13, 38, 63 – Giant’s Causeway
66. C+ Moheymen – – Tapit
67. C+ Mineshaft – 20 – AP Indy
68. C Fast Anna – – Medaglia d’Oro
69. C Commissioner – – AP Indy
70. C. Congrats – – AP Indy
71. C Lookin at Lucky – 20 – Smart Strike
72. C Fed Biz – Giant’s Causeway
73. C First Samurai – Giant’s Causeway
74. C Lea – – First Samurai
75. C Oxbow – – Awesome Again
76. C Paynter – – Awesome Again
77. C Flashback – – Tapit
78. C Race Day – – Tapit
79. C Algorithms – – Bernardini
80. C Strong Mandate – – Tiznow
81. C Overanalyze – – Dixie Union
82. C Mastery – 25 – Candy Ride
83. D. Speightster – – Speightstown
84. D. Tale of Ekati – – Tale of the Cat
85. D Silent Name – -Sunday Silence
86. D Outwork – 15 – Uncle Mo
87. D Nyquist – 40 – Uncle Mo
88. D More Than Ready – 80 – Southern Halo
89. D Verrazano – More Than Ready
90. D Goldencents – 25 – Into Mischief
91. D. Shackleford – – Forestry
92. D Street Boss – 20 – Street Sense
93. D Jersey Town – – Speights
94. D Firing Line – – Lion Hearted
95. D Daredevil – – More Than Ready
96. D. California Chrome – – Lucky Pulpit
97. TE Flatter – 40, 125 – AP Indy
98. TE Honor Code – 30, 41 – AP Indy
99. TE Gun Runner – 70 – Candy Ride
100. TE Candy Ride – 100, 150 – Ride the Rails
101. TE Liams Map – 35, 85 – Unbridled Song
102. TE Pioneerof the Nile – 175 – Empire Maker
103. TE Medaglia d’Oro – 200, 260 – El Prado
104. TE Curlin – 175. – Smart Strike
105. TE Malibu Moon – 60, 122 – AP Indy
106. TE Kitten’s Joy – 75 – El Prado
107. TE Quality Road – 200, 325 – Elusive Quality
108. TE Union Rags – 60, 140 – Dixie Union
109. TE Constitution – 40, 50 – Tapit.
110. TE Bernardini – 40 – AP Indy
111. TE Tiznow – 40 – Unusual Heat
112. TE Awesome Again – 40 – Deputy Minister
113. TE Tapit – 200 AP Indy
114. TE Empire Maker – 75 – Unbridled
115. TE Ghostzapper – 85 – Awesome Again
116. TE Arrogate – 50 – Unbridled Song
117. TE Street Sense – 75 – Street Cry
118. TE War Front – 250, – Danzig
119. TE American Pharoah – 80 – Pioneerof the Nile
120. TE Uncle Mo -125 – Indian Charlie
121. TE Speightstown – 70 – Gone West
122. TE Hard Spun – 40 Danzig
123. TE Distorted Humor – 50 – Forty Niner
124. TE Into Mischief – 175. – Harlan’s Holiday
125. TE RunHappy – 40 – – Super Saver
126. S Astern – – Medaglia d’Oro
127. S Kantharos – 30 Distorted Humor
128. S Jimmy Creed – 15 – Distorted Humor
129. S Shanghi Bobby – 15 – Harlan’s Hoiiday
130. S Lord Nelson – – Pulpit
131. S Can the Man – – Into Mischief
132. S Majestic City – City Zip
133. S. Run Away and Hide- – City Zip

I was already planning on building a “What if I am Wrong” portfolio of yearlings. The main speed/precocity sires were going to be Unified and Practical Joke. Given the results of the Derby and Oaks lets even add three more.

Munnings is the other speed/precocity sire mentioned in the Cox/Crow interview. He is a son of Speightstown. Maybe we can get a decent horse if we add some stamina.

Violence is another speed/precocity sire that I might give a try. He is the son of stamina influence Medaglia d’Oro, but most of his better runners have been sprinter/milers. Maybe with the right mare we can stretch that out.

Bal a Bali was the Brazilian triple crown winner. He came to the US and was a successful miler. The stallion registrar advertises him as SPEED SPEED SPEED. He comes from the family of In Reality so he should be either turf or dirt. His stud fee is only $15,000 at Calumet. Let’s hope others take a wait and see attitude.

Munnings ideas are:

1. #637 out of a AP indy mare
2. #675 Mizzen Mast
3. #1139 With Approval
4. #1164 Lemon Drop Kid
5. #1359 Point Given
6. #2100 Tapit

Maybe these will all be too expensive, but this is the type of horse I will be looking to add to the “What if I am Wrong” portfolio.

Violence ideas are:

1. #1735 out of a Malibu moon mare
2. #2090 AP Indy
3. #2331 Street Sense
4. #2350 Saint Ballado
5. #2453 Afleet Alex
6. #2473 Silver Charm

Bal a Bali ideas are:

Let’s see if any smart buyers (non-pinhookers) take a chance and then just copy them.

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What if I am Wrong sires:

1. Practical Joke (son of Into Mischief)
2. Unified (son of Candy Ride)
3. Munnings (son of Speightstown)
4. Violence (son of Medaglia d’Oro)
5. Bal a Bali (son of Put it Back)

I will certainly not abandon my focus on stamina/late developing influences based on one weekend of racing. If anything, the “price of speed/precocity” has just gone up.

I will attempt to present an alternative group of horses that are more “balanced”

I still live by the words of my hero Barry Goldwater:

“Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice”

The results are in, and I lost badly.

In the battle between the “modern” speed/precocity horse and the stamina oriented “plodder” the results of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks speak loudly

The Derby was won by an Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greely mare. I could not imagine a horse with a more “7 furlong” pedigree. Not only did he win, but he won by running a testing pace and hanging on. The speed horse did not sneak way in 48 and cruise home. There is a hint of stamina in Authentic’s second dam, but the pedigree is 80% pure speed. At least the next 4 finishers in the Derby were plodders with stamina pedigrees, but the damage is done.

The Oaks was even worse with daughters of Daredevil finishing first and second. Daredevil is a son of More Than Ready out of a Forty Niner mare. This is more sprinter than even miler pedigree. Brad Cox “called his shot”. In his interview with the Ten Strike folks he stated that he want to take a sprinter/miler pedigree and try to stretch it out to get a “classic” distance. That is exactly what he did with Shedaresthedevil. At least the female side was Congrats (a grandson of AP Indy), although the mare never even tried beyond 6 furlongs.

Both of these results were achieved despite the races being delayed 4 months. Obviously you can win the big races without a stamina pedigree.

The good news is children on Into Mischief will be even more expensive next week at the sales, and the children of Tonalist might not even get a bid.

Congratulations should also go to the folks at Myracehorse.com because they own a piece of Authentic and have been promoting (maybe over promoting) him at their website. The old saying is that “all publicity is good publicity” so let’s leave it at that. West Point finished 11th with Winning Impressions.

Just for the record I will try to get Honor AP home in the Kentucky Derby. I have no great insight other than he should like the distance. I will shoot for exacta with the closers.

I will be cheering for Tiz the Law, but not betting on him.

They sold 150 yearlings at Woodbine yesterday. Most were Ontario breds. I would have expected the $120,000 MSW purses at Woodbine to have attracted more attention. The median price was only $15,000. Maybe a tiny sign of a weak market?

This sale would have completely escaped my attention if I had not been making a real effort to read the Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) every single day.

I want to watch:

1. Point of Entry by Jesters Jazz – $60,000, a favorite sire
2. Vancouver by Miss Blakely – $40,000, nice mare
3. Summer Front by Spider Dust – $18,000, big second dam
4. Mizzen Mast by Aquinnah – $20,000
5. Ironicus by Cost and Effect -$9,000

There were several RNA’s, the buyback rate was about 25%. I still might flee to Canada if they start drafting 60 year olds.

I will take some shots to beat Gamine and Swiss Skydiver in today’s Oaks. I think you will be getting the right price. If those to hook up and go a little too fast, maybe the stamina fillies can sneak past them. Gamine is by the hated Into Mischief, out of a sprint oriented Kawfain mare.

Donna Veloce is a well bred horse with plenty of distance pedigree on the dam side (by Montjeu). I am also a Simon Callahan fan.

Hopeful Growth is also an interesting speculation. She is by Tapiture out of a mare that is a half-sister to Wonder Again the distance loving turf filly. The owners, St. Elias Stable, have owned part of Vinno Rosso and Always Dreaming. Trainer Tony Margotta is a nice comeback story himself.

Speech is also interesting. Her sire Mr Speaker won at 1 1/4 miles at three years old and the second dam of the sire is the great Personal Ensign. Speech is owned by Eclipse Partners. She was a $190,000 purchase out of last years’s March Ocala sale.

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Swiss Skydiver deserves our attention because owner Peter Callahan spent only $35,000 to buy her as hip #2997 at the Keeneland yearling sale.

Daredevil was not a high profile sire, and he has now been shipped to Turkey. The dam was a $15,000 claimer, but her sire Johannesburg gave her some distance credentials, and she had produced two winners. The key here was the second dam. She won $350,000 in 22 Canadian starts going routes of ground. She was by distance loving Strike the Gold.

That is the yearling profile you see so often. Horses in the $20,000 to $50,000 price range where the pedigree comes from the second dam. It is just to obvious when the results come from the first dam.

There are lots of different ways to get the Kentucky Derby. TDN had an excellent article summarizing all you need to know from an ownership perspective:

1. Tiz the Law – FT yearling $110,000 – freshman sire/stamina stakes dam
2. Honor AP – FT yearling $850,000 – freshman sire/stamina stakes dam
3. King Guillermo – OBS 2-yr old $150,000 – Uncle Mo/miler (2 start,75) dam
4. Thousand Words – KE yearling $1,000,000 – Pio Nile/sprinter stakes dam
5. Enforceable – KE yearling $775,000 RNA – Tapit/sprinter stakes, dam
6. Authentic – KE yearling $350,000 – Into Mis/sprinter (2 start, 100) dam
7. Sole Volante – KE yr $6,000, OBS $20,000 – miler/stamina (5 start) dam
8. Necker Island – KE yr $250,000 – Hard Spun/sprinter (4 start, 75) dam
9. NY Traffic – FT 2 yr old $27,000 RNA – 2nd year sire/stamina (2 st, 75) dam
10. Max Player – KE yearling $150,000 RNA – freshman sire/stamina stakes dam
11. South Bend – FT yr $47,000 RNA, OBS $70,000 – Algo/sprinter stakes dam
12. Mr Big News – FT yr $95,000 – Giants Causeway/stamina (6 start) dam
13. Money Moves – OBS $975,000 – Candy Ride/sprinter stakes dam
14. Attachment Rate – KE yr $200,000 – Hard Spun/stamina (6 st, 50) dam
15. Finnick the Fierce – Homebred – Dialed In/sprinter (8 start,80) dam
16. Storm the Court – FT yr $5,000, OBS $60,000 – LA-bred sire/sprinter (100)
17. Major Fed – homebred – Ghostzapper/stamina (10 starts,90)
18. Winning Impression – KE yr $17,000, OBS $77,000 – Paynter/stamina (90)

Conclusions:

1. 16 of the 18 went through the sales ring – that is stunning
2. all of the dams were runners, but 5 never ran better than an 80 equibase fig
3. 7 of the dams were stakes winners
4. 9 dams were stamina oriented and 9 were sprinters, its a tie
5. 7 horses went 2-yr old in training sales, 9 only sold as yearlings
6. 4 of the horses were RNAed
7. 6 sold for less than $100,000, 4 sold for $100,000 to $200,000, 6 sold for $200+
8. 6 sold at FT, 6 at OBS, 8 at KE (some sold twice)

The good folks at West Point won the 6th race at Churchill today with a horse that really made me stop and think. The race was a scheduled as a turf race for 2-year olds, but it was taken off the turf and run at 1 mile on the dirt. The pace was much too fast and Arabian Prince came from well back to win at 12-1.

The horse is a son of Mshawish so it not that surprising he ran well on the dirt. What is surprising is the price paid by West Point for a horse with little pedigree.

West Point paid $235,000 for hip #34 at last years Fasig-Tipton yearling sale in August at Saratoga. With over 5,000 yearlings yet to be sold West Point paid about 20x the Mshawish stud fee of $12,500. The dam was by Malibu Moon, but had won less than $100,000. She did run a 99 Equibase speed fig, but only won a Delaware allowance race. The second dam was also an unremarkable daughter of Subordination. The rest of the pedigree was not exciting.

This was the first foal of the dam. The nick with sons of El Prado and Malibu Moon is only C+.

At best the pedigree might be considered slightly below average, but many might call it well below average compared to the other horses at these sales.

Yet some of smartest guys in the business paid 20x, and the horse paid off by winning a $97,000 maiden race at first asking. Maybe this race was just a fluke, or maybe this will be a good horse.

What might that really mean?

It might mean that judging yearlings is 80% evaluating their physical characteristics, and pedigree is only a small factor. Why else would West Point pay so much for this horse? This horse is similar to several purchased by Starlight that almost had “negative” pedigree.

If judging yearlings can only be done by physical appearance, you might as well just throw out the sales catalogs.

The implications of this horse cannot be underestimated.

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Then I sat in a nice quiet room and thought about this horse some more. Here is the theory I want to propose:

I will call it the Unicorn Theory

There will be X % of yearlings that will be purchased with almost no regard to their pedigree.or stud fee

X will be some number between 1 and 5, so somewhere between 1% to 5% of horses will sell as “Unicorns”

That means that pedigree is still important for 95% to 99% of the other horses at the yearling sales. I hope I can believe this theory.

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Maybe there is even another theory:

Let’s call this one the Insider Information Theory:

There are a certain number of mares whose physical characteristics are much better than their actual performance. There are certain people that are aware of these facts, and they will bid for the mare’s children accordingly, The mare of Arabian Prince was trained by John Sherriffs, not Joe Nobody and this was her first foal.

One way to look for this is to find mares for high percentage/high quality trainers with lots of chances that are never dropped into claiming races. This mare was 2 for 12, but was never dropped.

Every few weeks I ask myself why i am writing this blog. Right now there are very few readers. One conclusion that I came to is that I really enjoy learning new things.

Most people enjoy doing things. They enjoying doing things with family and other people. I enjoy learning new things.

When I was about 35 I had learned everything about the investment business that I possibly could. I also got my golf handicap down to about 3 playing on a amateur circuit cleverly called deTour (yes I could tell folks I played on deTour). On a really good day, I could get 2 shots a side from the bottom level Hogan Tour players and take a little of their money.

I remember thinking “is all I will ever do is pick stocks and hit practice balls”? Then in 1992 I heard that riverboat casinos would be coming to Louisiana and Mississippi. I needed a new hobby.

What followed was 25 years of learning:

1. I learned to become a semi-pro blackjack player. I learned several different card counting systems, and more importantly learned how deploy them without getting caught. I read every significant blackjack book ever published. The bankroll required was $25,000 which was a substantial part of my net worth. I could make maybe $40/hour, but after 5 years it became to much like work.
2. Luckily they opened Lone Star Park in 1997. I knew nothing about horse racing, but I started to read every book. I also had the benefit of my marketing guys owning a nice NY-bred filly, so I could learn the ownership side of the business. I distinctly remember the thrill of reading Davidowitz, Beyer, Quinn, and Ragozin for the first time.
3. While I continued to learn horse racing, but I also started to play competitive chess in 2002. I had played for 6 months during the Fischer boom while in junior high. In 2001 we hired a new analyst that was good player, so once again I started to read all the books. I got to about 1650/1700 in USCF/FIDE. On a good day I could draw with 2000 players, on a bad day I could still lose to 1200 players.
4. During my chess days, the poker boom started and I had to jump in. I read all the Sklansky and Miller books, but never got too good. When the internet action stopped, I decided to bail before I lost too much. I loved the strategy, but did not have short-term memory skills you need to play poker.
5. I had played a local fantasy baseball league since 1992, but in 2014 I came across NFBC. In these leagues the entry fee is $1500 per team, and the players are the best in the country. You need to know the backup catcher for every team if you want to compete in these leagues. I had a lot of fun watching baseball games to evaluate players.
6. The Supreme Court ruled that states could allow sports gambling on my 60th birthday May 14, 2018. I took that as an omen that I should learn sports gambling. I started to write a blog about learning sports gambling, but stopped when COVID came around. There were many different sports gambling ideas i wanted to try, but I am glad I quit early.
7. Now I am trying to learn the business of buying and owning horses. I try to learn a little every day. It is complex business. I could just call a bloodstock agent and have them buy a horse for me. That would not be any fun. I enjoy getting up every day and learning something new.

Today I mythically claimed Royal Suspect out of the 4th race at Saratoga. This NY-bred gelded son of Animal Kingdom should be able to sprint or route, on dirt or turf. His best Beyer was 62 going a mile at Santa Anita. The horse was a $40,000 purchase at last year’s Timonium sale.

This claim idea was presented to me last night by the guys at Zilla Racing. In the real world, I could have bought 3% for $900. The claiming price is $25,000. So with taxes and expenses the markup is quite small.

I really liked this idea better than the other dozen or so ideas that Zilla has proposed. The main reason is that the claim is off 8% trainer Bruce Levine. I hate the idea of trying to claim a horse off Maker or Rudy. I want to claim from the guys who are struggling.

Ten minutes before the race Zilla sent an e-mail saying they were going to pass. I decided that on a mythical basis I would stay with the claim. I really liked this idea. The horse might also benefit from changing from Kendrick’s over aggressive rides.

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Kendrick’s “over aggressive” ride took Royal Suspect right into the winner’s circle. I am glad I stuck with the idea. It will be educational to see where this horse will have to run next given his win. Can he really compete in a n1x allowance, or will it be $40 claimer n2L? We will be watching.

It turns out that Zilla could not make the claim because their was a business relationship between Zilla and the actual owner. It was not a physical reason for not making the claim. In the real world the horse was not claimed, so Zilla could have gotten him.

The story really should begin here, with the big yearling sales in Kentucky. This is where the “season” really begins. The Ocala and Timonium training sales are important, but every horse is those sales might deserve the label of “rushed too soon”. If you buy a yearling, you can develop it at your own pace.

Without the overt pressure of workout times hanging over our head, let’s decide what kind of horse well want to buy.

1. Let’s start with the first crop sires. We cannot afford the Arrogate’s and Gun Runner’s, so what is left? My favorite is Midnight Storm, a son of Pioneerof the Nile. He ran well on dirt and turf. Midnight Storm was best as a miler, but was solid going longer. He came from low profile connections. The added benefit is he might be overlooked because another son of Pioneerof the Nile, Classic Empire, is also a first year sire. Midnight Storm’s stud fee is only $10,000. My top priority is to find the best Midnight Storm’s at the the sales.
2. Let’s see how the rich folks live. In general, sires in the $40,000 price range are too expensive for. the average guy. I do not want to waste too much energy looking in this price range, but one expensive sire that I think is overlooked is Twirling Candy. His broodmare sire is the long distance running Chester House. I think there is chance to find some value here. I want to find some reasonably priced Twirling Candy’s.
3. I want to find some good long running turf horses. Not that many turf horses are meant to work a furlong at the training sales. I want to find at least one each from: Point of Entry, Air Force Blue, Big Blue Kitten, Summer Front, Mshawish, Tourist, Flintshire, Noble Mission, Vancouver, Temple City, Mizzen Mast, Jack Milton, and We Miss Artie. Some of these sire’s might also have some dirt potential.
4. One special project is to find the best Maclean’s Music. I think MM is a misunderstood sire because he only had one start, but what a start it was. Cloud Computing is an interesting model for a successful yearling purchase. Finding a cheap MM might not be possible if Jackie’s Warrior wins the Hopeful the day before the sales begin.
5. I am still looking for my stamina oriented sires that the pinhookers “love to hate”. They include Tonalist, Lemon Drop Kid, Blame, Super Saver, Bayern, and Bodemeister
6. I am excited about my “What if I am wrong” portfolio. I will start with Unified and Practical Joke, but will consider others. These horses will mix a more speed oriented sire with my usual plodding mares.
7. One offbeat first year sire I want to focus on is the long running Shamen Ghost.
8. There are several other first year sires I will consider. They are Keen Ice, Gormley, American Freedom, Classic Empire, Connect, Cupid, Klimt, and Mohaymen.
9. I also want to focus on second year sire, that have not had much success so far. The one that jumps of the page is Frosted.
10. I will watch the sires that I have in the real world: Tapizar and Tapiture.
11. I will watch some of the low profile sires that West Point and Eclipse “nibbled” at last year. They are Anchor Down, Violence, and Ironicus,
12. I still will consider: Dialed In, Orb, Exaggerator, Lea, Honor Code, Midshipman, Liam’s Map, and Will Take Charge.
13. I am losing confidence in my Carpe Diem and Creative Cause ideas

I will still not jump into the Uncle Mo’s, Runhappy’s, and Into Mischief’s that all the “cool kids” are buying. I will still demand value.

This is where dreams begin.

There is a certain amount of irony that a small part owner of a 2-year old preparing to run in a $500,000 stakes race, is still complaining about too much emphasis on precocity in selecting young horses.

There is plenty that can be learned about breeding by reading the sire profiles on the Lane’s End website. Each sire has a nice multi-paragraph discussion of what type of mares should be bred to a particular stallion. The write-ups just ooze competence. They very clearly present what has already worked for a particular sire. This is all good information and anyone would be foolish to ignore it. It seems the answer is always to breed to a Storm Cat mare.

I want to look at the issue another way.

Rather than study who should be bred to Candy Ride, I want to understand how Candy Ride himself was created.

Some stallions are created as soon as their breeders plan the mating, but many other famous stallions are much more accidental. Let’s focus on these accidental stallions:

Candy Ride

Candy Ride was a very fast horse. He never ran at 2. Although he only ran 6 times, his 123 Beyer in the Pacific Classic, as a 4-year old, was a race to remember.

Candy Ride was bred in Argentina. He is the product of a failed US sire Ride the Rails (a son of stamina sire Cryptoclearence) bred to an unraced daughter of stamina oriented Blushing Groom. The dam’s pedigree is loaded with stamina influences.

If Candy Ride had come to the Keeneland yearling sale, he would have been in “book 6”.

Curlin

Curlin won the Breeder’s Cup Classic as a 3-year old. He did not run as a 2-yr old.

Curlin is the son of Canadian classic champion Smart Strike, and an unraced Deputy Minister mare. The second dam did not win until she has 4, but won three stakes over a mile once she got started.

Not surprisingly Curlin was hip #2261 as a yearling at Keeneland. Kenny McPeek picked him up for $57,000.

Medaglia d’Oro

Medagla d’Oro won the Traver’s at 3, and the Donn at 5. He did win as a 2-yr old.

Medaglia d’Oro is the son of Euro sprinter El Prado, but the grandson of long distance champion Sadler’s Wells. His mom had Damascus, Sword Dancer, and Prince John in her pedigree.

Medaglia d’Oro was bred by some nice folds in Montana, who had him broken in Arizona, and sent to low profile David Vance. Ed Gann bought him when he broke his maiden, and sent him to Bobby Frankel.

Quality Road

Quality Road won the Florida Derby and set a track record winning the Donn Handicap the next year. Quality Road first won in December of his 2-yr old season.

Quality Road was the son of Elusive Quality who was a sprinter/miler, but his dam was sired by Australian long distance horse Strawberry Road. This was not a conventional pedigree.

Quality Road was RNAed at he Keeneland sale when nobody wanted him for $100,000.

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Tapit was born to be a stallion. He was a $625,000 yearling purchase, and his future was seldom in doubt.

Other stallions are the product of creative breeders that are willing to try something new.

The answer is not always, “breed him to a Storm Cat mare”.

It his hard for me to judge the quality comparison between Fasig-Tipton and the Keeneland sale. It is an important issue, but I will just have to learn. Right now I am going to try for conservative value estimates, and hope that many will wait for the greater selection at Keeneland. The median last year at Saratoga was $100,000, so let’s try for some bargains.

For the remainder of the sale:

1. #185 – Midnight Storm, my favorite yearling idea, by Ghostzapper mare, May 31st foal, lots of Euro-pedigree, hoping for $30,000 but will pay more
2. #510 – Keen Ice by Dynaformer, April foal, $30,000 but will pay more
3. #591 – Midnight Storm – 2nd dam is Sharp Cat $75,000 ?
4. #200 – Practical Joke by Lemon Drop, $50,000 ?
5. #202 – Tonalist by Thunder Gulch, May 3rd foal, $60,000 ?
6. #208 – Anchor Down by Curlin, May 6th
7. #218 – Blame by Flower Alley, April 13th foal. $100,000
8. #280 – Honor Code by Galilio, March foal, $100,000 ?
9. #312 – Practical Joke by Purim, May foal, $50,000 ?
10. #344 – Tourist by Fu Peg, April 18th foal, $40,000
11. #348 – Twirling Candy by Distorted Humor, $100,000 ?
12. #373 – Point of Entry – by Rahy, April 20th foal $50,00 ?
13. #373 – Gormley by Perfect Soul, $30,000 ?
14. #401 – Frosted by El Prado, February foal, $100,000 ?
15. #425 – Practical Joke by Thunder Gulch, April foal, $50,000 ?
16. #525 – Orb $30,000 ?
17. #526 – Air Force Blue by Dynaformer (2nd dam), April, $40,000 ?
18. #577 – Dazing Candy by Swiss Skydiver mare, $50,000 ?
19. #397 – Connect by Malibu Moon, February, $60,000 ? B nick
20. #451 – Connect by Unbridled Song, March, A+ nick $100,000 ?
21. #631 – Connect by Giant’s Causeway, C+ but Northern Dancer $60,000 ?

For the Fasig-Tipton sale September 9-10th:

1. #157 – Air Force Blue by a Sadler’s Wells mare. May 8th foal. A nick. $30,000?
2. #127 – Midnight Storm by Harlen’s Holiday mare (Starlight purchase) $30,000 ?
3. #10 – Gormley by graded stakes Lord at War mare. March 16th foal, $50,000 ?
4. #131 – Maclean’s Music by Malibu Moon mare, April 30th foal, $60,000 ?
5. #29 – Twirling Candy by Pulpit mare, February 16th foal, $100,000 ?
6. #24 – Noble Mission by Mizzen Mast, Feb. foal $40,000 ?
7. #81 – Practical Joke by Lemon Drop, April 9 foal, $50,000 ?
8. #106 – Unified by Southern Halo, Mar. foal, $30,000 ?
9. #119 – Tapiture by Macho Uno< $30,000 ?
10. #133 – Unified by AP Indy, may 16th foal, $30,000 ?

Since these are not anyone’s hot sires, I am hoping to pay on the low side around 3x and would maybe go up to 5x

It is time to go back to the subject of valuation. What is a yearling worth? Compared to the 2-year old sales, we have one less piece of information since there are obviously no workout times.

We start with the subject of New York breds because the first half of the first day at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton September yearling sale is exclusively NY breds. This replaces the usual Saratoga sale which did not occur for COVID reasons. This is an unusual group of NY breds because 80% seem to be sired by non-NY stallions (it is a NY bred if the foal drops in NY). It is a select group.

I went back and looked at the first 100 yearlings sold last year at Saratoga, which was also a similar select group. Here is what I found:

30-35% sell for more than 5x the current stud fee

30-35% sell for between 3x and 5x the current stud fee

30-35% sell for less than 3x the current stud fee

In general, studs fees near $10,000 have more horses that sell for more that 5x the stud fee, while sires in the $40,000 range have more horses the sell for less than 3x the fee.

I am going to start with that as my beginning “model” and see if needs to tweaked as the sale goes on.

The Model:

1. the median horse will sell for 4x the current stud fee
2. outstanding horses will sell for more than 5x
3. ugly horses will sell for less than 3x
4. these multiples will be higher for $10,000 sires and lower for $50,000 sires
5. the multiples will be higher for precocious sire and lower for plodding sires
6. the multiples will be higher with black type in the dam, and lower for slower dams
7. the multiple will be higher for producing dams, and lower for newer dams

What have I accomplished in the first 90 days of this blog?

1. I have made over 150 blog posts to chronicle my journey toward buying a successful race horse.
2. I have learned about the operation of the training sales in Ocala and Timonium, and selected a group of horses to follow from each sale.
3. I have begun to develop a valuation methodology and selection strategy for training sales and yearling sales
4. I have purchased 2-3% interests in four different real horses from three partnership groups
5. I have contacted over 30 different partnership operations, and have begun to understand their wide variety of offerings
6. I have started to monitor the performance of the different partnership groups
7. I learned about the characteristics of all the major Kentucky sires and their stud farms
8. I have made two mythical claims
9. I have prepared to select mythical yearlings at the big Kentucky sales, and am prepared to evaluate real world offers from different groups
10. I have started to understand the data sources needed to select horses

My 2% owned horse, Quick Tempo, will be entered in a $500,000 race at Kentucky Downs on September 12th.

The problem winning early with a 2-year old is there no logical next race. You could wait two months for a N1x allowance race to fill. If your horse is doing well, some type of small stakes race is really the only option.

When Quick Tempo won last week I looked at the stakes schedule for 2 year olds. I had never really done that before. Those were races for overly precocious horses that I never really cared about.

The first race that jumped off the page was a 6.5 furlong $500,000 turf sprint race that was about 21 days away. I quickly dismissed this race as something only Wesley Ward could win. Add to that the fact that the finish is straight uphill, and that Tapizar by a Dixie Union mare is not really a turf pedigree. I thought it would be silly to even write this idea down, so I focused on some small stakes races at Indiana Downs and Canterbury as the logical place for Quick Tempo.

The Faber brothers that run Dare to Dream did not agree. They chose the big race. I give them credit for creativity and courage. It is an easy choice to criticize, but the more I think about it the less crazy it is.

The positives:

1. Dare to Dream ran two very successful turf sprinters, Jockamo’s Song, and Nicole’s Dream, that did not really have turf pedigrees.
2. Quick Tempo has liked the poly at Ocala and Arlington so turf is not that much of a stretch
3. This mis-timing of QT’s race makes it difficult to evaluate. If you believe the hand timing the Beyer should be at least 70, which could be mildly competitive in a stakes race with normal improvement.
4. QT might be quick enough to get the lead, and anything could happen.
5. COVID has messed up the progression of many 2-year olds, so results could be unpredictable.
6. I guess everyone is a shipper to Kentucky Downs. There is no local horse stabled at the track
7. Even if this nothing more than a public work, the date of the race is correct.

The only thing I do not like is the uphill stretch run which might confuse young horses, but good trainers have been running at KD for many years.

When I bought my 2% of Quick Tempo in late May, I did not expect to be in a $500,000 race in three months.

When I was 10 years old I was planning to escape to Canada to avoid the Vietnam draft. I watched the evening news more than most 10 year olds.

Maybe Canada would have been a good plan after all, it sure is a great place to run 2-year olds. The purses are incredible. Maiden races for $125,000?

One of my first posts was 12 horses to win the Derby from the June Ocala sale. The #1 horse was a Sky Mesa colt out of a Pulpit/Dynaformer mare.

This horse had a solid work, was never listed as an “out”, but did not appear in the auction ring when it was his turn. No private sale was recorded. He disappeared.

Now named Too Legit, he shows as being owned by Hooties Racing Stable. He broke his maiden in a claiming race at Woodbine at 6-1 with a Beyer of 59. Today he is the third choice in a $250,000 stakes race called the Simcoe. It is not the Kentucky Derby, but for a horse that should have sold for no more than $30,000 in Ocala it is quite a start.

Trying to understand these private purchase networks is a major issue.

I am sure that studying all this breeding information has improved my handicapping.

Yesterday in the Empire 6, I took a stand against the Runhappy first time starter and played instead an Upstart first time starter. I knew from watching the trainings sales that the Upstart’s had been running, and so far the Runhappy’s have been very disappointing.

All I missed in the Empire that paid $48,000 was the Bill Mott horse in the Sword Dancer. I was three deep, and an extra horse would have cost $18.

I had singled the great Amira Chichakly, who has done a reasonable job after taking over for Gary Contessa.

This group has put out a very nice yearling offering. Their plan is to buy 4 horses at the yearling sale, pinhook one, and race the other three. They did this successfully last year and bought a Hit It a Bomb colt for $100,000 and flipped it for $200,000 at an Ocala sale. LRF’s minimum is $25,000. They are pretty much a California operation, but plan to run one these horses somewhere in the East next year.

They at least deserve credit for creativity.

Let’s keep track of what they bought last year.

1. #2865 Miss Costa Rica by Hit It a Bomb, $95,000, flipped for $200,000, and already a winner at Del Mar with a nice 87 fig
2. #1428 Agreetodisagreee by Runhappy , $155,000, working at Del Mar
3. #2778 Labor Union by Union Rags, $80,000, working at Del Mar
4. #1285, $160,000, not yet named, Street Sense out of Montana Native.

I would not have been a fan of the Runhappy purchase, and might not be thrilled that the colt they sold is already a winner.

These guys bought and raced my favorite new stallion, Midnight Storm, so let’s keep a close eye on them.

Trying to buy a successful horse requires some effort every racing day. It is difficult to keep up once every track is running two 2-year old races every day. i know I quickly lose focus on what is happening in California.

Here is what I know I must do every day.

1. Read the Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) very carefully every day. Even their ads have a lot of information. They have a list of wins by sire for each day that is a great summary
2. Scan the Paulick Report every day for important news stories. Today he had a very important story about the issue of “paper trainers” and some of the bad stuff going on at Gulfstream. I have to stay informed.
3. I need to push myself to review the charts from each day to monitor claims.
4. I must carefully review my Equibase trainer summaries for each day keep up the performance of the folks training my horses

I know I am not good at building a routine for each day, that is hard work for me.

It is still my belief that breeding stamina oriented sires to stamina oriented mares is the best way to buy a successful race horse.

I think this strategy works because it is the opposite of what pinhookers and “win early” owners are looking for. Stamina/stamina horses are consistently sold at bargain prices because 90% of the buyers are looking for SPEED and PRECOCITY.

This leads me away from pedigrees that are “milers we hope we can stretch out” that are what Brad Cox and Liz Crow, and everybody else are looking for in yearlings.

But yesterday my favorite stamina guys at Donegal won with a nice looking son of Into Mischief and a turf miler dam. So maybe just for a moment I can open my narrow mind to some other possibilities.

Let’s look at the new sires and see if there is a more speed oriented sire that I can live with.

One that jumps off the page in the $10,000 Unified, a son of Candy Ride. Unified never won a two turn race, but he did carry his natural speed to 1 1/8 winning the Peter Pan. He did not start until he was 3 years old and injuries limited his number of races to 7. He was out of a Dixie Union mare that suggested speed. Jimmy Jerkens was Unified’s trainer and he was campaigned by Centennial Farms, both hint he might have been more than a sprinter. Commentators said Unified had the “build of two turn horse”. I hope Unified is overlooked because everyone will be chasing the other son Candy Ride, the $70,000 Gun Runner.

I am going to try to finds some mares that add some stamina to the speed of Unified:

One that looks interesting at Keeneland is hip #1462.

The fourth dam was a fancy French distance horse. The third dam ran a big speed fig at 1 3/16 miles at Arlington, the second dam was a nice turf miler. All that was bred to Mizzen Mast and produced the dam Mesana. Mesana won her maiden race at Santa Anita with a 95 fig for John Sheriffs, but only ran once more race. Mesana’s first foal has won $200,000 sprinting

I think this is kind of “sneaky” distance pedigree. The nick is rated A+ by TruNicks, having produced several stakes winners.

Another is hip #1918:

The dam by Blame, Rachel Wall ran a 108 fig going 1 3/8 miles at Saratoga. There is plenty of stamina in the extended family. The nick is A+

Another is hip #2034

The dam brings in some Pleasant Colony family, and is the same cross as Gift Box. The nick is A++

I will not give in and start buying Speightstowns and Into Mischiefs, but I will at least consider a few Unified’s.

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Just for fun, let’s go one step further an think about a son of Into Mischief. Practical Joke is a new $25,000 sire. He is out of a Distorted Humor mare, so he might be more than a sprinter. Practical Joke won the Hopeful and the Champagne, was 3rd in the BC Juvenile, 2nd In the Blue Grass, and failed in the Kentucky Derby. Chad even said he could not go that far.

Practical Joke is almost the prototype for “can get you a mile, but never a mile and a quarter”. Just looking at his picture in the Stallion Registrar you can see a horse built “downhill” like a sprinter. Just for fun lets try to add some stamina:

Hip #2630 by a Medaglia de Oro mare that won twice at 4, and produced a nice foal. The second dam was also a runner and producer. This is a May 1st foal, so maybe we can get him cheap. A++ nick.

Hip #2232 is a filly out of a nice Lemon Drop Kid mare that was a great runner and producer, the second dam was a runner and producer. The nick is A++, and the foal is April 1.

Hip #2705 is a colt with plenty Euro-distance pedigree on the dam side, and is an April 30th foal.

I am actually getting kind of excited about my new speed ideas. All I have to do is ignore common sense, and pay up for these types. At least Practical Joke is only $25,000, not $175,000 like his daddy.

Two weeks ago I was offered a loose 2.5% interest in Donegal’s partnership. Their first starter ran ok last week, but today Abarta won a maiden turf race at Ellis. He was taken well back and charged home. He is a good looking, long, son of Into Mischief. He might be be a real nice horse. I am not really sure he is even a turf horse, but perhaps was just looking for a longer race.

Donegal buys distance oriented horses, and this looks like a good one. This one was hip #1132 at Keeneland last year. They paid $200,000 which means it must have been a good looking horse (the median at that point would have been under $70,000). The mare was a nice turf miler that ran a 105 Equibase fig.

And then two races later Ten Strike brought in a nice looking horse in a 3 year old maiden race. I am sure they would have expected this horse to run earlier, but sometimes stuff happens.

A Big Blue Kitten ran a decent third in a competitive MSW 2-year old turf race in Maryland. I need to learn more about Maryland racing so I am adding Jeremiah O’Dwyer and Brittany Russell to the trainers I follow in Equibase.

Just as I type this Kelsey Danner (another trainer I am watching) wins at 10-1 at Gulfstream. I need a better way to keep up to date with a variety of tracks.

These are the new sires at the yearling sale in my order of interest:

1. Midnight Storm – the other new son of Pioneerof the Nile, turf or dirt, ran 28 times for Little Red Feather, speed, soundness, and stamina, all for only $10,000, my favorite by a wide margin
2. Keen Ice – a true plodder, but a cheap son of Curlin for only $20,000, ran for Donegal Partners
3. Gormley – a $7,500 son of Malibu Moon with some Bernstein and Kingmambo in the female family
4. Shamen Ghost – a stamina oriented son of Ghostzapper, interesting
5. American Freedom – a very low profile son of Pupit, out of a Pleasant Tap mare, consider
6. Connect – a $20,000 son of Curlin, maybe
7. Classic Empire – popular son of Pioneerof the Nile, maybe too popular
8. Mohaymen – another son of Tapit by a Dixie Union mare, maybe
9. Cupid – a $10,000 son of Tapit, from a Beau Genius mare, maybe
10. Klimt – a precocious son of Quality Road, maybe
11. Mastery – a precocious son of Candy Ride
12. Unified – son of Candy Ride
13. Practical Joke – son of Into Mischief
14. Arrogate – too expensive
15. Gun Runner – too expensive
16. Caravaggio – Irish son of Scat Daddy, need to learn more
17. Battle of Midway – son of Distorted Humor
18. Bird Song – son of Unbridled Song
19. Astern – a turf sprinter son of Medaglia de Oro, pass
20. Lord Nelson – a sprinter son of Pulpit, pass
21. Union Jackson – sprinter son of Curlin, pass
22. Bal a Bali – miler son of Put It Back, pass
23. Biogenic – unraced son of Tapit

The big yearling sales are less than two weeks aways. I have been looking through the catalogs, but the sheer number of horses is overwhelming. For example there are 49 Macleans’s Music at the Keeneland sale, plus 3 more at Fasig-Tipton. The Keeneland sale is further complicated because there are 6 “books” of declining quality. Trying to figure out a real world strategy would be a tough task.

Here is what I want to accomplish:

1. Select one horse at each five price points, under $25,000, under $50,000, under $75,000, under $100,000, and under $200,000
2. Build a portfolio of 10 colts for under $1,000,0000 to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike.
3. Build a portfolio of 10 fillies, I guess to compete with Starlight Ladies
4. Build a portfolio on 10 grass horses combining colts and fillies. This is really an interesting business idea because the big partnership seems to focus on dirt horses.
5. Maybe I will do an under $20,000 bargain portfolio, just to track more horses.
6. Maybe I will do a portfolio of “balanced” horses using sires like Unified and Practical Joke.

The main strategy will still focus on stamina oriented horses. Maybe I will consider using a more conventional strategy to build an additional list.

I will take some chances with new sires. I really like Midnight Storm and Keen Ice, and maybe Gormley. I think Classic Empire and Arrogate will be too popular.

I will also focus on old favorites like Maclean’s Music, Twirling Candy, Tonalist, and Summer Front.

I am also thinking about last years popular freshman sires that have had little success so far with their 2-year olds. Frosted is one I will consider.

The real question is what type of multiple you will have to pay. Will the pinhookers be scared because of the general weakness of the training sales and the COVID situation?

Book 1 at Keeneland had a median price of $350,000 last year, so the first two day will just be for watching. Maybe there will some value at the bottom of this book, but there might also be many RNA’s. Book ends at hip #448

Book 2 had a median of $180,000, so it will still be difficult, but not impossible, to find something in our price range here. Book ends at hip #834.

Book 3 had a median of $80,000 last year, so this is where our shopping really begins.

Book 4 has a median of $40,000, book 5 is $15,000, and book 6 is $5,000.

My first imaginary claim won an $30,000 maiden claiming race taken off the turf race at Saratoga yesterday. The Tonalist colt named Judicial Restraint looks like he might like the mud. He earned an Equibase fig of 91. The race was 1 1/8 mails, and Chad commented after the race “the colt can run all day”. In the real world no one claimed him again.

The purse was $23,000, so at least this guy is paying his own way. I was hesitant to claim off Chad, but so far so good. It will be interesting to see where he is entered next.

There was quite a controversy about a Pletcher claimer last weekend. After running Beyer of 90 in his first four races, the colt was laid off 6 months and entered back for $25,000. The went off at 2-5, but ran badly, not even changing leads in the stretch. There was a claim, but it was voided. The owner was Cheyenne Stable.

The voided claim procedure is an improvement to the claiming game. There has been some interesting discussion about using a rating system system to replace the claiming system. I guess this works in Europe, but it would be a tough transition here.

I need to focus more on the claiming game. My intuition was that Saratoga was a bad place to start claiming horses.

Should anyone in the right mind own race horses?

I guess you should try to answer that question, before you set out on a quest to buy one.

There are two issues worth considering. At a recent Jockey Club conference it was strongly implied that there were more indictments coming in the Navarro/Servis mess, but COVID problems had delayed the grand jury process. It was news to me that the Jockey Club had sent a private security firm out to investigate the industry. Why have these results not been made public? You can wait years for Federal prosecutors to act, why not just toss the bad guys off the tracks?

The answer to that issue might lie in the second problem. There are too few horses, for too many races. In an effort to fill races the tracks are accepting entries from too many cheaters.

In a recent issue of a TDN writers podcast, Sal Sinatra (head of the Maryland Jockey Club) said:

“We are putting out a piss poor product for both our owners and our bettors”

Saratoga has had such small fields that its races are almost not worth watching. Sinatra made the point that small fields cause small fields as owners wait for the perfect spot to enter. Trainer Mark Casse made the same point in the Jockey Club roundtable.

Some are pushing a bill in Congress called the Horse Racing Integrity Act that would allow federal regulation. As a good Libertarian I know that new federal laws are seldom the right answer. On this point the CEO of Monmouth agrees, what he wants is Commissioner of Racing to be appointed that would serve all the interested parties.

The issues are complex. As we say in the academic world:

Further research is necessary.

We are about two weeks until the first big yearling sale. Let’s review where all the different partnerships stand.

Right now it seems that only three groups are offering yearling partnerships “in the blind”. That means you invest before the horses are chosen.

1. Little Red Feather has an innovative approach which seems to combine pinhooking and racing. They are raising $500,000 to buy 4 yearlings which could be sold or raced. They are taking reduced fees, but will take 10% of any sales.
2. Ironhorse Racing has 3 partnerships for $60,000, $40,000, and $20,000 to buy one yearlings each. These seem to close before the sale
3. Bourbon Lane also seems to be offering a partnership, but it may still be open after the sale
4. Wasabi Ventures has several cheaper yearlings available already

West Point, Eclipse, Starlight, Ten Strike, Donegal, Centennial, and all the rest seem to be waiting until after the sales to raise money.

I attended my first yearling sale yesterday. It was not at Keeneland or Saratoga, but at the mighty Lone Star.

It was difficult to tell exactly what I was watching. I guess you need to fill the $10,000 maiden claimers at Remington, Evangline, and Sam Houston with animals that come from somewhere. Maybe an owner could have just as much fun at these lower levels. There were several families that were bidding on horses, and a collection of second tier Texas and Oklahoma trainers. Assmusen was a no show.

The median price at the sale was $5,000, which is less than day 14 of the Keeneland sale. I guess I should try to learn something about the low end of the market. I have always thought about claiming horses at Lone Star, but I see no reasonable way to compete against Assmusen.

I guess let’s first see if the was some value at the top end of the market and then have some fun by watching a group of the cheaper horses.

The top end:

1. Shaman Ghost by Cubicle Queen – $32,000 – this was the one horse I saw Brett Calhoun bidding on, he was out at $25,000, this was a really nice looking colt
2. Creative Cause by Oelectra – $20,000 – I am interested in this sire, but could not find one at the training sales
3. Lemon Drop Kid by Sallies Memory – $70,000 – why was this horse here and not in Kentucky, let’s try to learn
4. Cross Traffic by Katy Smiles – $16,000 – another interesting sire
5. Dialed In by Noble Gray – $36,000 – why was this horse not in Kentucky?
6. Super Saver by Pomarine – $20,000
7. American Freedom by Mulligatawny – $18,000
8. Lea by Sankobasi – $20,000, nice looking
9. Texas Red by Bel Air Kid – $11,500 , Lemon Drop
10. Mshawish by Crayon – $16,000, kind of small

The Midnight Storm, Gormley, and Tonalist were RNA’s

Classic Empire went for $100,000, Klimt for $120,000 as sale toppers

At or below the median:

1. Danzing Candy by Temper – $5,000
2. Real Solution by Little Springer – $2,500, cribber, nice turf pedigree
3. Eagle by My Girl Bess $6,500 – interesting sire
4. Astrology by Mystic Smile $4,500 – Louisiana bred
5. Mr. Besilu by Onesongsallitakes – $2,000, grandson of AP Indy
6. Big Blue Kitten by Patriot Princess – $3,200, bad looking
7. Mr. Besilu by Slide on By $2,000 – nice dam, why so cheap?
8. American Lion by Stick Save – $2,500 – distance pedigree
9. Court Vision by Angel of Mine – $3,000 – good looking
10. Real Solution by Bayou Gal – $1,900 – turf?
11. Strong Mandate by Classy Touch – $3,000 – good pedigree
12. My Golden Song by Conquest Bebop 3,000 – a Scat Daddy for turf?

Maybe I got a little carried away by the cheap horses, but lets see how many end up running, or being sold at training sales.

Before the yearling sales start, I want to do some profiles of successful horses and examine what they looked like when they were sold as a yearling.

i guess there is no better place to start than with Tiz The Law.

Jack Knowlton purchased him for $110,000 out of a Fasig-Tipton sale in Saratoga in August of 2018. What characteristics did this purchase have.

1. Constitution was a first year sire with a stud fee of $25,000 at Lane’s End Farm
2. Constitution did not win 2, but won the Florida Derby at 3, and the Donn Handicap at 4
3. The buyer paid 4.5x the stud fee
4. The average Constitution yearling sold for $50,000 in 2018
5. The dam, Tizfiz, did not run until May of her 3 year old season
6. She ran an Equibase fig of 105, but only won a stake as a 5 year old at 1 1/8 miles on turf
7. The dam sire, Tiznow was a classic distance horse, and the second dam’s sire, Go for Gin, was also a classic winner
8. The second dam, Gin Running, was a runner, Eqibase fig 99, and an above average producer
9. The dam won $450,000 and produced 2 winners from 4 foals.
10. The dam had been bred to Tapit and Uncle Mo

Tiz the law was born an March 19th as a classic distance horse, or what many buyers would call a plodder.

Real Horses:

1. Quick Tempo – winner at Arlington, looking for a spot
2. Blonde on Tap – 8th at Arlington, next MSW at Arlington
3. Tonalistic – recovering from ankle chip, out 90 days
4. Song Saver – resting sore knees, grazing only

Imaginary Purchases from Two Year Olds in training sales:

1. Get Her Number by Dialed In – winner at Del Mar
2. Avisse – by Point of Entry – ran at Del Mar
3. Whatmakessammyrun – by We Miss Artie – ran at Saratoga
4. Bode’s Tipsy ran at Woodbine
5. Celestial Cheetah – by Social Inclusion – 2nd at Delaware
6. about 35 more waiting for their first race

Imaginary Yearling Purchases:

1. Big Big Plan – by Point of Entry – winner at Woodbine
2. La Tourista- by Tourist – ran 3 times at Prairie Meadows
3. Star Mission – by Noble Mission – ran at Gulfstream
4. about 15 more waiting for their first race

Imaginary Claims

1. Judicial Restraint by Tonalist- will run again for Chad Brown
2. Ames Mister by Summer Front – will run again for Tom Proctor

Top Partnerships:

1. Dare to Dream – got me my first winner
2. Hibiscus – Tonalist colt hurt in storm
3. Pewter – Super Saver filly needs rest
4. Ten Strike – impressive yearling presentation
5. Donegal – nice talk with Jerry Crawford, yearlings
6. West Point – interesting Vancouver offer, Wicked Strong offer
7. Eclipse – interesting Mshawish offer
8. Centennial – nice four horse package
9. Zilla – missed Big Blue Kitten offer, great claiming ideas
10. Bloodlines Racing – great Noble Mission offer
11. Horseplayers Racing – Summer Front yearling offer
12. Ironhorse – interesting yearling proposal
13. Funky Monkey – good talk with Richie, waiting on yearling idea
14. Wasabi Ventures – honest, smaller operation
15. myracehorse.com – getting better, Naismith offer
16. Starlight – high end horses
17. Kenwood Racing – great summer at Monmouth
18. Bourbon Lane – waiting for yearlings
19. Pocket Aces – missed Mshwish offer
20. Little Red Feather – California only, missed Cargo offer
21. Taste of Victory – private management ideas
22. Crown’s Way – small group
23. Pocket Aces – missed Mshawish offer
24. Dream Maker – Noble Mission offer
25. Brilliant – good buys at Ocala
26. Bona Venture – where did Vancouver colt go?
27. Magdelena – yearlings
28. Blinker On – claiming only

Upcoming events:

1. Lone Star yearling sale
2. Fasig-Tipton yearling sale
3. Keeneland yearling sale

Favorite Sires:

1. Twirling Candy
2. Maclean’s Music
3. Point of Entry
4. Tonalist
5. Summer Front
6. Big Blue Kitten
7. Air Force Blue
8. Blame
9. Frosted
10. Honor Code
11. Dialed In
12. Carpe Diem
13. Tourist
14. Mshawish
15. Vancouver
16. Flintshire
17. Palice Malice
18. Super Saver
19. Noble Mission
20. Tapiture
21. Orb
22. Bayern
23. Ironicus
24. Anchor Down
25. Bodemeister
26. Upstart
27. Liam’s Map
28. Exaggerator
29. Temple City
30. Violence
31. Tapizar
32. Jack Milton
33. Lemon Drop Kid
34. We Miss Artie
35. Social inclusion
36. Sky Mesa
37. (new) Midnight Storm, Keen Ice, Connect, Gormley, Classic Empire

Trainers I am following:

1. Chris Davis
2. Steve Klesaris
3. Kate DeMasi
4. Amira Chichakly
5. Kelsey Danner
6. Jeremiah O’Dwyer
7. Brittany Russell
8. Ray Handel

Top issues:

1. yearlings vs 2-year old in training sales
2. individual horse vs. portfolio
3. best strategy : Ten Strike/Crow speed vs plodders debate
4. return of investment vs best horse debate
5. where do withdrawn horse go?
6. best partnership structure
7. valuation metrics at sales
8. use of 3rd party data at sales
9. who can you trust: consigners
10. best new sires
11. rating dam pedigrees, nicks
12. auction strategy
13. definition of a successful horse
14. quality of late Ocala sale
15. Starlight vs Eclipse vs Donegal vs Ten Strike
16. staying organized
17. Ownersview list
18. rating stud farms
19. Starting your own partnership, turf idea

It is time take another shot shot at the claiming game.

My first imaginary claim was a Chad Brown trained son of Tonalist. This horse has not run since 6/12, so maybe there was a reason he was in for $40,000 or maybe Chad will not drop him again. We will see.

I have been watching the Zilla guys claiming attempts with great interest. I almost pulled the trigger on a nice Twirling Candy maiden name Its a Wrap. The horse lost a $40,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga by a head, but Zilla lost the shake to Assmusen.

The horse I am interested in is running today for $30,000 at Ellis Park. He is a 2 year old Summer Front trained by Tom Proctor and owned by Brenton Jones. I thought this was interesting $17,000 yearling purchase by Jones. Mr. Jones generally does not run cheap horses, he has multiple graded stakes wins including the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

Ames Mister ran poorly in his MSW debut, and is in today for $30,000. His works have been average, exactly what I would expect if I planned to drop a horse.

Let’s play poker with Mr. Jones, and claim his horse. I am a big fan of Summer Fronts and hope they will get better as they mature. Ames Mister was 6-1 is that first race against a decent field, so somebody thought he could run.

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Ames Mister ran a much better race and only lost by a head in the $30,000 maiden claimer. Nobody in the real world claimed this horse. Let’ see how the rest of his career progresses.

The real question is where do you run QT next?

It seems unlikely that Arlington will have enough horses to card a non-winner of 1x before the end of its meet on September 30th.

The only real option is to find a small stakes race somewhere. The most obvious answer is a $100,000 race at 6 furlongs at Indiana Grand of September 16th. There are also two small stakes at Canterbury. Maybe you could guess that Churchill will eventually fill a 2 year old allowance race.

I know I have laughed at owners running maiden winners in stakes races, but now I realize it might be the only race available.

This is a nice problem to have, but it does not have an easy answer.

Blonde on Tap ran a badly beaten 8th the next day at Arlington. She dueled for the lead to the top of the stretch with the eventual winner , but then collapsed and had many closers scurry by her. It is good to know she has that kind of gate speed, and it possible that jockey Jose Lopez went too fast from the rail post.

The winner, Seven Docs, went off at 59-1, so maybe it was just a crazy race. BOT went off as the second choice. The favorite was a Wesley Ward horse that was vanned off. Several of the nicer horses in the field were more than 6 lengths behind BOT after a 1/4, so maybe it was just to fast early.

Quick Tempo won his first race going 4 1/2 furlongs at Arlington on 8/20. He was quick to the lead, dueled with the $400,000 Daredevil colt, and cruised home with only a tap on the shoulder. The field had been scratched down to only 5 horses.

The immediate reaction way joy and excitement over such a nice win. Then reality set in when looking a the time of the race, it was reported as 23.46, 47.82, 54.56. That is dreadfully slow, and did not seem to match the race I just watched. However, I must admit I had never watched a 2 year old race at Arlington before, so I was not exactly how to judge the time.

The good news came the next when Dare to Dream guys reported QT came out the race in good shape.

The even better news was the Dare to Dream guys had called Equibase to challenge the timing of the race, and Equibase quickly admitted there had been an error. The new time was:

21.45. 45.29 51.89 Quick Tempo’s actual time

22.61 45.11. 51.16. Dawanie Macho’s track record for 4 1/2 furlongs on 6/12/2010

Students of pace handicapping might even judge QT’s race as faster because of the very fast early fraction. Dawanie Macho was sold who to Gary Barber who won the Landaluce Stakes in the next start at Del Mar.

How could Arlington Park miss the timing of a race by about 3 full seconds. I am sure we will never know.

In four days there will be a small yearling sale right in my backyard at Lone Star Park. There will be 151 yearlings sold, about 110 are Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana breds, but another 40 are Kentucky breds.

I am not sure what to make of the quality of this group. For at least the last ten years Fasig-Tipton has held a late 2-year old in training sale at Lone Star that seemed to have a better quality of horses. This sale is run by the state breeding association. Maybe some of the Texas breds will have some value, but I am skeptical of any Kentucky bred that could not “make” the Keeneland sale.

It will be a good learning experience to just watch the show. My favorites among the non-local breds are:

1. #226 Creative Cause
2. #243 Lemon Drop Kid
3. #231 Big Blue Kitten
4. #265 Danzing Candy – a Cal bred son of Twirling Candy
5. #235 and #213 by Super Saver
6. #270 Midnight Storm
7. #324 Gormley
8. #225 Dialed In

I guess I would be surprised if any of these sold more than $30,000.

I need to learn more about the Texas bred sires:

1. Bradester – a son of Lion Heart that did win the Stephen Foster
2. Moro Tap – a Texas raced son of Tapit
3. My Golden Song – a son of Unbridled Song that got 3rd in the Holy Bull
4. Too Much Bling – s sprint oriented son of Rubiano

It will be interesting to see who shows up for this undertaking.

About two months ago I built a portfolio of ten bargain yearlings from the 2019 Keeneland sale. Each was under $50,000, and the average was about $30,000. The median price at the sale was about $45,000. The idea was two compete with Ten Strike and Donegal by choosing “cheaper” horses, but trying to earn a better return on investment.

Three of the ten have already raced, and eight of the ten have worked. That leaves two of the ten that are still idle.

Yesterday one of my choices, Big Big Plans, won her first start at Woodbine by six lengths. The daughter of Point of Entry is owned and trained by Nick Gonzales. She ran an Equibase fig of 65, and should eventually try the turf.

Another choice, La Tourista, already has three starts at Prairie Meadows for an interesting owner/trainer Travis Murphy.

Star Mission has one poor start for Ken McPeek at Gulfstream.

It good to get at least one win for this strange collection of horses. The idea is to track their progress over the next few years

Unfortunately my colt named Tonalistic was injured in a stall accident. The accident occurred on a stormy night when he got spooked by the thunder and lightning. He chipped his right rear fetlock (roughly his ankle) and required surgery to remove the chip. The prognosis is good, but he will be out about 90 days.

Hibiscus did not inform me until well after the surgery was performed. They did send a nice copy of the medical report. I guess I would prefer an earlier notification, but what Hibiscus did was OK. I have not yet seen the bill.

Stall accidents are part of horse racing. When you read through any yearling catalog you see plenty of unraced mares. Often they were unraced because of stall accidents, and not a lack of racing ability.

One of my strongest handicapping angles has always been to play long shots the day after a stormy night. Horses do not like like thunder and lightning.

What is a successful race horse? Let’s try to define that a little better.

One owner wrote an interesting letter to the TDN. He stated that in the US, total overall purses are about $1 billion dollars a year, and he estimated that the total costs of training all thoroughbred horses was about $2 billion dollars per year. He stated that he bought 5 horses a year at sales, and bred another 5 mares to race each year for over 20 years. He reports he has lost money almost every year, or maybe broken even when he has sold his good mares after racing them.

There is plenty of room for error in the cost estimate, but at a minimum it is 98% likely that total costs are at least $1.5 billion. Given there are a few horses that earn $1 million+ in a year, the results for the median horse are not encouraging.

It would be nice if the partnership operators released an annual return percentage, but none that I have talked to is willing to disclose that number. They are all honest and tell you not to expect a positive return, but the extent of the expected loss is still a mystery.

All this tells me is:

Any race horse that breaks even is a successful horse.

How do you buy a break even horse?

Let’s consider all the possibilities:

1. You can buy a horse at a yearling sale, and incur the costs and risks of breaking the horse, and preparing it to race
2. You can buy a horse at a 2-year old in training sale and get it to the races in 2-6 months
3. You can claim a horse out of a claiming race
4. You can buy horses privately
5. You can buy a mare and breed her yourself
6. You can buy a partnership that owns one horse (either yearling, 2-year old, or claim)
7. You can buy a partnership that owns a group of horses (from as few as 2 to as many as 12)
8. you can start your own partnership and raise money from investors

Each strategy has its pros and cons. Let’s briefly summarize what I have learned so far.

1. the 2-year old in training sales are the most straight forward strategy because you can see the results fairly quickly, but maybe these horses are being asked to do “too much, too soon”
2. the yearling sales allow for more patience, but there is a higher risk of buying a horse that will never race
3. the claiming game is very competitive, watching Zilla has been interesting
4. private sales and breeding are complicated
5. each partnership deal is unique and there are a confusing number of structures and the price points vary from $150 to $150,000

Both of my My Dare to Dream horses have their first race in the next few days.

In all honesty the general feeling of happy anticipation is being replaced by a feeling of worry and concern. Both horses have progressed very smoothly since the Ocala sale in June.

Let’s review how I got here:

I decided to start writing this blog the morning of the first under tack show for the June Ocala 2-year old in training sale. As I started to watch the works, I also started to to review the various partnership websites. Dare to Dream is a medium size partnership operation based out of Chicago. I had made a small unsuccessful investment with them several years ago.

That horse, Dynamite Answers, had one published work and never ran again. He was a Temple City colt with a very late birthday (May 17th), so he was too immature for the sales. Dare to Dream had purchased him privately. I knew even then that Temple City progeny were late developers, so I took a chance. I will not bore you with the whole medical history, but the Dare to Dream guys handled it professionally and the partners were kept well informed. It is just one of the risks of horse racing.

Fast forward 3 years, and the night before the Ocala sale was to begin the Dare to Dream guys were offering an “in the blind” partnership for a horse they were going to buy at the Ocala sale. I saw that Dare to Dream had bought an interesting horse, Arrest Warrant, at the March Ocala sale, but that partnership was already closed. I decided to take a chance with Dare to Dream again. I called one of the Faber brothers, and told them I would invest $2,300 for 2% of prospective purchase. Rather than just watching the sale, I was now in very small way part of the sale.

I waited with eager anticipation to see which horse they would buy. Now that I know much more about sales, I am not 100% sure I would make that investment again. However, sometimes you just have to dive in pool and try to start swimming.

I did not have to wait that long. Early on the second day, Dare to Dream bought a colt by Tapizar for $75,000. He was hip #456. He had worked in 9.4. One horse had worked 9.3, and only 15 had worked 9.4. Of those 15, only one other sold for under $100,000.

I was thrilled about a son of Tapit (and a grandson of AP Indy) as the sire. Tapizar was a Breeders Cup mile winner, but has produced Monomoy Girl out of a sprinting mare, so he can be a sire of distance running horses. The dam of my new horse was a sprinter by Dixie Union that had a nice career winning over $230,000, and had produced a decent runner in her first 3 foals. The second dam was unraced, but by Mineshaft, so another stamina influence. The third dam was a very nice filly won the Arlington Oaks (G3) by 6 lengths. The fourth dam was by Cozzene, so their is plenty of distance ability in the extended female family.

The horse was named Quick Tempo, and started working a few weeks after the sale. He was sent to a young trainer named Chris Davis who is based at Arlington Park. He has had 9 works, starting with three 3f breezes, and concluding with six 4f works (the last being 47.2, 2/8). The race is only 4 1/2 furlongs. He will be ridden by Jose E Lopez. QT is 5th choice in a field of 9 with a morning line set at 8/1. The favorite is a nice son of Daredevil that Carolyn Wilson bought for$400,000 at the first Ocala sale in March. Calumet Farm has a nice Bernardini colt in the race. There is horse making his second start that ran an OK speed fig of 72 in his first try. Former Ralston Purina Chairman William Stiritz has a nice Kozan colt on the outside. Mr. Striitz was one the first CEO’s I met in my career as an investment analyst. The turn comes up very quickly, so a good break is essential.

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As the Ocala sale was ending the Dare to Dream guys went back privately purchased a Tapiture filly that had been RNAed on the first day of the sale. She had worked a solid 21.1 and they got her for $50,000. I also bought 2% of this horse.

Tapiture is also a son of Tapit and has been a very useful $10,000 sire. The mare was a consistent Oklahoma bred that won 6 races routing. The third dam has produced million dollar winner Bien Nicole.

She was named Blonde On Tap. Since her birthday is a late May 16th, I had expected her to develop a little slower, but she has kept up with Quick Tempo is several joint works.

She starts the following day in a full field at Arlington going 4 1/2. She drew the rail, and right outside her is a Wesley Ward speed horse. That is just bad luck. Chris Davis trains and Jose Lopez rides.

The weather is looking good, let’s hope for two safe races and some good learning experiences. In a perfect world I am not a fan of 4 1/2 furlong races, but you are at the mercy of the racing secretary.

I would like to be there to watch, but the miserable Governor of Illinois is not allowing owners at the track.

It can be difficult to keep track of all the open offers when you are watching about 30 active partnership groups.

1. I had a very nice conversation with Jerry Crawford the founder of Donegal Racing. They have put together a very nice group of 12 horses, and still have available units. The units are available because of changing family situations among the partners. This is a great reminder of how important it is to stay in contact will these groups because “loose shares” can become available. A 2.5% share would cost in the mid five figures. This is a very attractive offer because I really like the stamina focus of group. I think there will be even better bargains available at the September sales. It will be difficult to watch this group develop this year.
2. I really feel bad that I am passing on the Bloodlines Racing offer for their Noble Mission colt. At 1% for $1,900 (with no additional costs), this is exactly the type of deal I should be investing in. If not for the looming yearling sales I would be jumping in, but right now keeping my “powder dry” seems to be the best strategy.
3. There is also a very interesting offer from a small group called Horseplayer Racing Group. They have a Summer Front yearling they are offering at 2% for $700. This is a homebred colt with a very nice pedigree. The horse is available because of a long-term relationship between trainer Brian Williamson and the Vanier family in Illinois. This is really the first yearling offering I am evaluating.
4. Little Red Feather had put a nice offer on a Point of Entry colt named Cargo. Given this is one of my favorite sires, I should have been more excited. I guess I was not sure why some of the existing partners would not have bought up these shares. Then LRF also presented a new opportunity in a horse they purchased privately called Big Stretch. This horse already has 8 nice works for Phil d’Amato. The sire is Dynaformer’s son Mr. Big. I still need to watch more California racing.
5. West Point had made the 5% for $15,000 offer on the Wicked Strong filly trained by Dale Romans.
6. Pewter still has shares available in the Malibu Moon filly and also made a new claim.
7. Zilla Racing has been doing a great job of presenting claiming ideas throughout the Saratoga meet. I almost bit on one yesterday. Zilla was looking to claim a Twirling Candy gelding out of a $40,000 maiden claimer. It’s A Wrap finished a decent third, but Zilla lost the shake to some guy named Steve Assmusen. Not a bad guy to lose to. You have to act quick on these deals, but this one almost got me.
8. Myracehorse.com sent me an offer of .05% for $152 of a Medaglia de Oro colt they bought at Ocala July for $150,000. Doing the math this means 1% for $3040. Naismith is out of the same mare that produced new sire Klimt. This is a reasonable offer. The website even mentions stride length, cardio scores, and the Brezze Fig. Is this the future of partnerships? I originally dismissed these guys because of their “overly promotional” internet ad, but perhaps that was too harsh.
9. Centennial Farms was offering 2.5% of their four horse package for $58,000. These are 4 nice horses that I will just have to watch.
10. The guys at Kenwood Racing have been winning races at Monmouth. They sent out an interesting deal on a private purchase 3 year old who has run twice named Adhwaa. I will be watching with interest.

This has all happened it he last 10 days. I guess old saying is “may you live in interesting times”

There is also good news from the real world. Both Dare to Dream horses seem to have races at Arlington, but now we will see if the crazy racing situation in Illinois allows the races to fill.

Quick Tempo is the Tapizar colt with the quick work at June Ocala. We will see today if the 8/20 races fills. The race is for only 4.5 furlongs. It shows how you live at the mercy of the racing secretary.

Blond on Tap is the Tapiture filly also from June Ocala. She has a race 8/21, if it fills.

Both have been working well. Dare to Dream has done a nice job of updating each work (often with video).

My Tonalist Colt, now name Tonalistic, is back to galloping for Steve Klesaris, and should be backing working in a few weeks.

Song Saver has been sent back to a layup barn form at least a month. The e-mail from Pewter said that her knees were still “open”. This is a little surprising since she came out of the March Ocala sale, but I have no problem being patient.

So far so good in the real world.

Get Her Number won his race at Del Mar. It was not a real fast time, but it was still a win.

That makes my record for horses “mythically” selected from the training sales a perfect 1 for 1.

I am seriously considering retiring while still undefeated.

Let’s see if I receive my share of the $55,000 purse

I think I got a 2 year old winner before Eclipse, West Point, Ten Strike, or Donegal.

In my first post Dialed In was at the top of my list of interesting sires.

Most likely the victory should be chalked up to “beginners luck”. It is going to be a long year.

It has been about 75 days since my first post. The first horse I “mythically” selected from the Ocala sale is entered today at Del Mar. He is one of 8 two year olds entered in the third race at Del Mar today. They will go 5f on the turf. He is owned by Gary Barber and trained by Peter Miller. The morning line is 5 to 1.

Let’s see what we can learn from this first horse:

1. Miller gave the horse three weeks off after the sale, and then used 7 works spaced at 6 or 7 days. The fastest was 48.0 from the gate which was 5/36.
2. The horse had worked 21.0 at the sale, which was fast, but 40 horses worked faster at 2f. The horse had a 4/14 birthday, which is a little later than average.
3. The horse only cost $45,000 for a son of Dialed In, one of the lowest prices for a horse that worked 21.0.
4. I had called this horse “improver” because Dialed In was not really a “value” sire. He has seen his fee raised to $20,000 because of good results. The story was this year’s crop had even better mares.
5. This mare was a very slow horse and the second dam was not much either. There was a bunch of good horses under the third dam.
6. The mare was a daughter of Bernstein, who ran well in May as a 2 year old.

Dialed In is a son of Mineshaft, and a grandson of AP Indy, so it was not really expected that this would be my first runner. Turf is not really a Dialed In strength, so this might just be a prep