Category Archives: Uncategorized

It really begins. Yesterday, August 11th, the Keeneland yearling sale catalog was released for the sale that begins September 13th. The sale has 4,272 horses, and that will last a week. Add those horses to the 662 that Fasig-Tipton will sell a few days earlier. For good measure, there will also be 151 yearlings soldContinue reading “4272+662 +151”

West Point e-mailed an interesting offer yesterday at noon. They were offering 25% of a Wicked Strong filly that trainer Dale Romans had bought as a yearling. Romans was keeping 50% and offering the other 50% to West Point. Wicked Strong was a sire I was interested in during the training sales, but I neverContinue reading “Playing Poker With Dale Romans”

I seldom cheer for, or bet on Chad Brown horses. However in the Travers today I will be cheering for Country Grammer. Paul Pompa paid $450,000 for this horse at Ocala last April. The work was a nice 21.0, but 25 horses worked faster. However the colt has a late birthday (May 11), and thereContinue reading “Cheering for Chad”

Until this morning I had never really thought about how horses prepare to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies. To me those big races were less important than a $10,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park. As a gambler all I cared about was finding complicated races that the betting public might not understand.Continue reading “Prep”

One significant reason to write this blog is that I always wanted to investigate all the small partnership operations. Starlight, West Point, and Eclipse are the Apple, Amazon, and Google of the partnership business. I have always been a “small cap” investor that wants to find the well run companies that few others know about.Continue reading “Bloodlines Racing”

Let’s try to keep track of everything else in one place. These are offers still available from various operations. Dream Maker Racing has an interesting NY Bred: Brian’s Mission – Noble Mission – (Jesse’s Justice) $55,000 I know nothing about this group, but I really like the horse. Pewter Stables is still offering: Malibu MoonContinue reading “Everything Else”

I have not seen their annoying commercial for awhile, so in an effort to be complete let’s keep track of their horses. These we all yearling purchases: Moonlight d’Oro – Medaglia de Oro $625,000 Shared Empire – Pioneerof the Nile $275,000 Joyful Addiction – Pioneerof the Nile $385,000 Lady Valentine – Into Mischief $385,000 ThisContinue reading “Myracehorse.com”

Let’s also keep track of Bourbon Lane. Below is their yearling group: Queen Bourbon – Empire Maker $265,000 Bourbon Royale – Tapit $240,000 Rye Sense of Humor – Distorted Humor $180,000 Frosted Bourbon – Frosted $120,000 Hard Rye Guy – Hard Spun $125,000 I think this portfolio has been sold out for quite some time.

One thing I have learned is you have to keep checking back on websites. Every group seems to have its own way of doing things. Checking back on Centennial I find they are offering two different partnerships. Centennial has a long history in the partnership business. They have campaigned horses like Corinthian, Colonial Affair, Unified,Continue reading “Centennial Farms”

Let’s also keep track of the Eclipse yearling purchases: Astrological – Malibu Moon $350,000 Avenue – Quality Road $450,000 Aviano – Medalia de Oro $775,000 Demon – Into MIschief $150,000 Eagle in the Sky – Sky Mesa $115,000, 2 races already Excursion – Curlin $325,000 Gretzky the Great – Nyquist $295,000, already a winner atContinue reading “Eclipse”

Let’s also keep track of the horses West Point bought as yearlings. Of course, unlike Donegal, Starlight, and Ten Strike, you did not have to buy the entire portfolio, A Longlongtimeago – Maclean’s Music $120,000 Arabian Price – Mshawish $235,000 Charity for All – Union Rags $50,000 Classic Colors – Street Sense $170,000, has runContinue reading “West Point”

Let’s layout the Ten Strike yearling portfolio now that we have names. I have a nice prospectus that describes the rational for selecting each horse and the podcast that discusses each horse. Sharp Rocket – Empire Maker $370,000 Amazing Rocket – Into Mischief $500,000 Rocket Equation – Frosted $250,000 Eight and Sand – Munnings –Continue reading “Ten Strike”

I guess in order to be complete we need to look at Starlight. What horses would you buy if you had an almost unlimited budget? Here they are: Spielberg – Union Rags – $1,000,000 Hopkins – Quality Road – $900,000 Classier – Empire Maker – $775,000 Tenor – Curlin – $800,000 Fenway – Into MischiefContinue reading “Starlight”

Let’s take the time to look at Donegal’s portfolio for 2020. To date none have started. Abarta – Into Mischief by Distorted Humor $200,000 mare a turf router, Keeneland #1132, part-owner Cashlings – Ghostzapper by Smart Strike – $250,000 mare was a turf/dirt miler. Keeneland #643, part owner Code Duello – Honor Code by RubianoContinue reading “Donegal”

Jerry Crawford is the founder and principal of Donegal Racing. For the last 12 years they have picked 12 horses and put them into a partnership that has a stated goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has campaigned Arklow, Keen Ice, and Dullahan, but have yet to find that elusive Derby winner. I readContinue reading “Crazy ???? Maybe Not”

The basic strategy will be to find a yearling for $50,000-$100,000 that has stamina influences on both sides of the pedigree. The hope is that pinhookers will be less interested in this type of horse. I will start with the sires that I think are the most “undervalued”. After one run through the catalog myContinue reading “Fasig-Tipton September 9-10”

Let the madness begin. The catalog for the first yearling sale came out yesterday, August 3rd, for the sale that will be held September 9-10 in Lexington. Fasig-Tipton will sell 600+ yearlings in a sale that I guess replaces their usual August yearling sale in Saratoga. That sale was usually 200 or so horses, butContinue reading “It Begins”

There was a significant difference in the important 2 year old race Saturday. Equibase gave the winner Reinvestment Risk a 86, which translates to a Beyer of 70-75. The Beyer figure was reported at 90. Time will tell which is right, but I hate having to use Eqibase numbers. This difference should scare the crapContinue reading “Equibase vs. Beyer”

It is difficult to tell how the Covid pandemic has effected the two year old schedule. it seems like there already should have been more races, but I have nothing to measure that feeling by. It is difficult to believe the Breeders Cup is only 3 months away. The Hopeful and the Spinaway are onlyContinue reading “Schedule”

Patience is an easy strategy to talk about. It is easy to write about. Patience is much more difficult to actually practice. About half of my horses I imaginarily purchased have been named and show a few works. Maybe a few are close to getting a start. There are several that have not even beenContinue reading “Patience”

I want to give a special award to the folks at Wasabi Ventures for exceptional honesty. Wasabi is a Japanese horseradish. Wasabi Ventures Stables in medium size Maryland partnership operation that has several interesting 2 year olds being offered, including a Jump Start and a Flat Out. One thing that differentiates WV from every otherContinue reading “Special Award”

Let’s try to be a little more organized and pull all the partnership information into one place. Here is my top 20 partnership ranked after just 2 months of watching: ??? means there is an current 2 year old being offered $ – under $3,000, $$ – under $10,000, $$$ – under $25,000, $$$$ –Continue reading “Top 20 Partnerships and More”

nw = not working Real Name Sire Dam Sire $$$ Nic Real Own Status Mr Cline Maclean’s Music Pulpit 47 B+ Mancari nw Avisse Point of Entry Mt. Livermore 65 4f Shea D Summer Summer Front Empire Maker 35 nw Jeebar Frosted Maria’s Mon 65 Al Rashid Nuturing Violence Pioneering 125 Eclipse 4f Midnight ChoirContinue reading “Roster”

I just learned how to make a WordPress table. Reasonable people can disagree about the first two columns. My assessment of popularity is partially judged by how well these different sires sold at the three sales I observed. I am not in favor of buying horses from the first column, and I am 50/50 onContinue reading “Sires Again”

I was watching the Saratoga broadcast of the first two year old race of the meet, Maggie Wolfendale mentioned that at the Ocala sales the consigners can choose which horses to run early in the morning. She said they choose to run their best horses early, because they think the track is better. That couldContinue reading “One More Puzzle Piece, Random Thoughts, and a Yearling Model”

My goal is to eventually look at all the partnerships. OwnerView has a list of 66 of them: https://www.ownerview.com/syndicate This will take some time, but let’s review a few Starlight is probably the most expensive. They have an imposing list of 2-yr olds mainly with Baffert and Pletcher. I guess I will ask how muchContinue reading “Other Partnerships”

In order to not miss any more Big Blue Kittens I need to go through each stud farm one by one. In a previous post I had ranked them by their percentage of top stallions. I will use that order here: Winstar (18) – Stars-( Distorted Humor, Constitution, Speightstown, Tiznow, More Than Ready) My interestsContinue reading “Farms Again”

My lack of organizational skills cost me a chance to invest is a partnership I should have joined. I thought I was on all the mailing lists, but I somehow missed Zilla Racing. The were offering a great looking Big Blue Kitten filly they had just bought at Ocala for $67,000. She is the ultimateContinue reading “Screwed Up”

One of the main goals of this blog is to learn about the different partnership groups. I have been very impressed by what I have learned about Ironhorse Racing Stable. Everyone should go to their website and learn about their success with Buccherro. From a $43,000 OBS purchase of an Indiana bred, they won twoContinue reading “Ironhorse”

I am not sure what I just watched. At the Ocala sale, only 650 of the 1100 listed horses actually went through the ring. The OBS spokesperson did not provide a clear answer. The buyback rate was a normal 20%, but why were so many horses withdrawn? If the pinhookers are going to attempt toContinue reading “Still Confused”

Here are some links to my horses: Quick Tempo – Tapizar colt Blonde on Tap – Tapiture filly Song Saver (scroll down) https://www.pewterstable.com/partnership-offerings.shtml Tonalist colt http://www.hibiscusstables.com/offering.asp?h=138

Someday I would like to own a successful race horse. Here is what I have accomplished in the last 2 months in my first steps toward that goal: I have purchased 2-3% interests in 4 real horses from three different partnership operations. My total investment is about $8,000. Two are working nicely, one is sick,Continue reading “Summary”

It is difficult to tell if the final Ocala sale has great value, or is mainly a collection of leftovers. There have been a lot of withdrawals and buy backs. I really want to learn what happens to the horses that do not get sold. I think it is a very important part of theContinue reading “Value at Ocala??”

My approach to the second Ocala sale will be a little different. My goal is to build a portfolio of $20,000 -$60,000 horses and track their progress. I will not be able to watch much of the sale live, so I will not be considering different bidding strategies. I look at the results each eveningContinue reading “Ocala Begins”

I will concentrate more on the $20,000 to $50,000 horse at this sale. Most of the good horse should have sold at the first 3 sales. I want to watch how many of what is left even win a decent maiden claiming race. The workout times look about like the previous sale. I will focusContinue reading “Ocala July”

It has been a week since the last post, so let’s update each area of interest. My four real horses are in various stages of development. The two Dare to Dream horses went straight to the track and have 3 published works each. The Pewter Stable horse has been galloping with Pewter’s other 2-yr olds,Continue reading “Update”

Let’s torture the numbers one more time. What was the range of multiples for horses with a fast work at the Timonium sale? All the horse that worked 10.1 and sold: 18 horses sold for more than 10x their 2020 stud fee 5 sold for 8x to 9.9x 5 sold for 6x to 7.9x 8Continue reading “Torture”

Let’s spend a little time looking at the Pewter Stable offer. Only 65 of about 303 horses sold, worked 10.1 or faster (10 went 10.0). At first glance it seems that buying a Malibu Moon at less that 1x the stud fee could only be accomplished only at gunpoint. But before jumping to that conclusion,Continue reading “Fat Tails”

All good golfers know that when you playing a practice round, it is a good idea to take mulligans. There is little sense in playing out of the deep rough when you are just practicing. In that spirt, i am going to add 3 more horses to my imaginary stable. I learned this morning thatContinue reading “Taking a Mulligan”

The first offer to consider is the one from West Point. Hip #160 is a Vancouver colt that worked 10.2. He was my 5th favorite horse when I went through the Timonium catalog the first time, and before his work. I like the “concept” or this horse, but would I actually invest in it. WPContinue reading “Offers”

The “shooting” started less than 24 hours after the Timonium sale ended. At 11:30 am I got an e-mail from Eclipse offering the 2 fillies they bought yesterday. Then only 4 minutes later came Pewter Stable with the offer of a nice Malibu Moon filly they bought privately at the sale. Then 4 minutes laterContinue reading “Boom – Boom – Boom”

West Point added a $100,000 Square Eddie for their California clients. Eclipse made just two small purchases, a $40,000 Mshawish and a $57,000 Dominus. Zilla bought a Commissioner and a Laoban. I think the list of folks that passed completely is interesting. Maybe I could have looked harder at some of the cheaper NY breds.Continue reading “Timonium – Final Thoughts”

The Timonium sale ended today, and the TDN reported that things were “better than expected”. I am not sure that is 100% accurate when you consider that many horses came from the canceled Fasig-Tipton Select sale originaly scheduled for late March. Those horses helped the high end of the sale, and the some decent NYContinue reading “Timonium Conclusion”

Rather than just sit and watch, I guess I can put together a wish list of horses I hope a partnership group might buy at a premium price: #359 My favorite Twirling Candy left, dam by Cozzene #386 a well bred Frosted with a slow work #284 my second favorite Twirling Candy #367 Exaggerator ?????Continue reading “Wish List”

I guess I should step away from my fantasy portfolio of horses and get back to the damn real world for a moment. West Point bought two interesting horse yesterday, not exactly what I was looking for but still interesting. I should be expecting some form of offer soon on these horses in the realContinue reading “Real World Work”

QRS fired all their bullets on the first day of the Timonium sale. I could not be happier with the haul. Faced with the possibility of making an Exaggerator my top pick tomorrow, I was prepared to swing at a few other horses if the price was right. That is exactly what happened at hipContinue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Adds 3 New Horses”

As the Timonium sale is only 2 hours from liftoff, deep second guesses have started. If this were real money, it would be quite a problem. That is why I am practicing with “funny money”. Right now the I have talked myself out of several horses, and the plan is to wait for #367 theContinue reading “Maybe ?”

Let’s try to value all horses that worked 10.2 from sires under $40,000. #13 Justin Phillip -average pedigree – 5x = $25,000 #49 Laoban – runner + producer – 7x = $35,000 #62 Ironicus – first foal +unplaced – 3x = $15,000 (but maybe new sire??) #79 Bourbon Courage – winner + producer – 5xContinue reading “More Estimates”

I know from fantasy baseball that when your top picks get away from you, there can be a tendency to overpay for your second choices. I am backing off my second choice, the Nyquist colt #68, and will only pay up to $75,000. Nyquist is not really my kind of sire, too precocious. The damContinue reading “What Was I Thinking”

The Timonium Sale starts in about 24 hours. Let’s focus on some of the early horses and try to estimate their auction price. I will make my best guess for a price before I look to see if the horse sold as a yearling. #2 – f – Bernardini by Storm Cat mare – 10.3Continue reading “Estimates”

Rather than buy 20 horses like we did at Ocala, let’s just focus on 3. First let’s say we had $100,000, with the leeway to go to $120,000 if necessary #68 a Nyquist colt with strange Euro pedigree that just might not sell to the speed crazed crowd. Maybe this is too creative, buy IContinue reading “Timonium Plan”

After two days of works the times a distributed in an almost perfect “Bell Curve” 7 works of 10.0 39 works of 10.1 57 works of 10.2 57 works of 10.3 37 works of 10.4 14 works of 11.0 8 works of over 11.0 The Ocala sale had a bigger ‘bulge” toward slower horses. SoContinue reading “Timonium Is Different”

Yesterday was an important learning day. I opened an ad in Thorooughbred Daily News and entered the world of horse sale “data analytics”. I knew this information was available, I just had not focussed on it. I knew the guys at Dare to Dream sometimes discussed things like stride length when talking about horse theyContinue reading “It Gets More Complicated”

Which stud farm is the most importat?. I took the list of the top 100 sire based North American earning for 2019, and gave 99 points for 1st (Into Mischief) and 1 point for 100 (Include). A farm only got credit for a sire still active The results: Winstar 670 Lane’s End 581 Darly 434Continue reading “The Farms”

I got the TrueNicks report for all the horses I bought imaginarily for over $30,000 at the Ocala sale.. The rough method is comparing the percentage of stakes winners from all matings of your sire with all the daughters of that broodmare sire, compared to the general population for your sire and that broodmare sire.Continue reading “Beginner’s Luck?”

95% of the times I mention speed figures in this blog they will the numbers reported in Equibase, because that is a free database. Beyer figures are more accurate, but costly to obtain. Beyer figures are better because they are adjusted by real breathing people, Equibase is only done by computer. Go to any bigContinue reading “Equibase vs Beyer”

What have I accomplished in the 3+ weeks of writing this blog? Most importantly, the blog has kept me from watching more than 30 minutes of MSNBC or Fox News. I have not heard more than 10 minutes of sports radio updating me on the latest Dak Prescott news. Who cares? I have 2000 horsesContinue reading “Summary”

Since I am not that excited about the Timonium sale let’s push to find some new sires to at least think about. When I heard a Randy Bradshaw interview, he said he liked the looks of the Air Force Blue horses he saw at Ocala. Two sold for $400,000 and two sold for about $200,000.Continue reading “Expanding Horizons”

The Timonium Sale works starts tomorrow, so let’s lay outa general strategy. This could all change depending on the works and the outs. I will be looking for just 3 horses at under $100,000, under $50,000 and under $25,000. There are two horses I love, #140, and #63, and two that I really like #415Continue reading “Timonium Strategy”

What if I am wrong? Let’s try the bargain yearling strategy, but trying to build a balanced horse. I used to same sires, but tried to pick a dam with sprinter/miler pedigree. If they won at 2 even better. I fear this is what the pinhookers are looking for, but it worth a try. AgainContinue reading “What If I Am Wrong?”

Inspired by a $40,000 Flashback yearling that became a BC champion, lets build a portfolio of cheaper yearlings. These are not the cheapest, I want to pay 2x to 5 x for these horses. I will look for horses bought by people who want to race them, not pinhook them. These are all from theContinue reading “Bargain Yearlings”

Ten Strike made an interesting admission during their podcast. They admitted that the rate of return was probably measurably higher on mid-price ($40,000 to $60,000), than it was on more expensive horses. The big upside comes at $100,000 plus. Maybe this is obvious, maybe it is not. Of course the upside they are primarily lookingContinue reading “ROI vs Upside”

Let me tell you an old investment story that explains why I am so completely opposed to some popular sires like Into Mischief. The Goldman Sach’s pharmaceutical analyst came into our office. He gave a brilliant one hour presentation on everything happening in the industry. He knew his stuff cold. We began discussing individual stocksContinue reading “How High”

Sires of $15,000 or more and their sons: War Front 250 — Air Force Blue 15, The Factor 18, Summer Front 15, Jack Milton 8 Medaglia de Oro – 200 —Violence 25, Fast Anna 10, Mshawish 13, Vancouver 20, Golden Lad 5 Quality Road – 200 – City of Light 40, Klimt 10 Tapit –Continue reading “Expensive Sires”

In my first post 3 weeks ago I gave a list of what I thought were “undervalued sires” This is the updated list: Maclean’s Music – Cloud Computing is the model Point of Entry – anything Dynaformer Carpe Diem – still a believer, but fading slightly Ironicus – West Point bought one Tonalist – TapitContinue reading “Favorite Sire’s”

After listening to the Ten Strike podcast I just had to go back and build my competing portfolio of “slow” horses. I went back to the Keeneland September yearling sale and picked out 9 horses that I liked and will now be entered into a fierce competition with the Ten Strike horses. Not all theContinue reading “The AB Portfolio”

Please remember their is good reason my first boss called me “an arrogant bastard”. I refused to listen to the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. I almost never agreed with the most highly respected Wall Street analysts and strategists. That is why I am going to completely disagree with both Brad Cox and the bloodstockContinue reading “Arrogant Bastard”

I just listened to a very educational podcast done by the guys at Ten Strike. It was a discussion of the 9 horses in their partnership for this year (already closed). It includes interviews with the founders of Ten Strike, their trainer Brad Cox, and their bloodstock agent. It answered so many questions. I haveContinue reading “Wow”

I am not sure this is a perfect metaphor, but it might help everyone understand. There is kind of a race among the partnerships groups to get a significant investment from me. This will be a very long race (maybe two years) and the gate has just opened. I am pretty sure I will waitContinue reading “The Race”

I am not sure how to evaluate the thoroughbred breeding concept of “nicks”. At first it seems to be a logical idea, certain sires seem to do better with mares whose father has a certain breeding. Then you get into the decision of how to quantify these relationships and everything gets a little murky. ThereContinue reading “Nicks”

Congratulations to myracehorse.com for winning the last race at Belmont at 15-1. If I had been alive in my pick 3, they would be my new heroes. It looks like they own the horse with Winning Move Stable. The horses myracehorse.com bought at Ocala were very reasonable. I am going to try to stay positiveContinue reading “Congratulations ????”

Congratulations to West Point for winning the G2 Penne Ridge with a $200,000 Declaration of War from the September Keeneland yearling sale and then nearly winning the G1 Jaipur. Let’s dig a little further into Decorated Invader. The sire Declaration of War is son of War Front, out a Rahy mare (a distance influence). TheContinue reading “Congratulations”

Two months ago I would have left the Lone Star simulcast pavilion moaning about short price favorites in short field stakes races. Today I stayed home to look through the Ocala catalog, and only lost $60 on my pick 3 stab. I would have lost much more trying to beat the other short price horses.Continue reading “Belmont Recap”

I promise not to report the workout of every Quixote Stable horse, only the important ones. Blonde on Tap wasted no time getting to work. She went 36.60 at Keeneland, 9/43 I know some trainers will give a horse a break after the sale, but this one got off to a nice start. I amContinue reading “First Workout”

I though I was going a little crazy. I just did not find may interesting ideas in the Timonium catalog. I have maybe 5 stong ideas from the 560+ plus horses. Some of those might be too expensive looking at the yearling prices. I looked through the Ocala catalog (about 1000 horses) this morning andContinue reading “Ocala in July”

After selecting 20 horses from the Ocala June sale to watch, the obvious but puzzling question was how find the new name for each Hip#. Best I can tell OBS does not report the new name for each hip# sold. I thought I would just have to watch the PP’s for all two year oldContinue reading “Finding Horse’s Names”

I will need to learn to say no, or my real world stable will grow to the size of my imaginary stable. In the last week I have tried to get on all the mailing lists. The most intriguing offer came from Eclipse which was offering a Mshawish filly that they will share with PeterContinue reading “Learning to Say No”

The real world list of horses I own part of is now as follows: Quick Tempo – c – Tapizar – Dare to Dream – 2% – Chris Davis – $75,000 Blond on Tap – f – Tapiture – Dare to Dream – 2% – Chris Davis – $45,000 Song Saver – f – SuperContinue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Roster”

I was glancing through the website of some partnerships I had not looked at before. There he was starring back at me. Just what I was looking for. A Belmont Stakes winning sire, bred to a mare sired by a Belmont Stakes winner, with an average work, 10.1. Tonalist by a Lemon Drop Kid mare.Continue reading “Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is”

Now I have to handicap the Belmont from the perspective of a horse buyer. It is ok to cheer for Tiz the Law. The Sackatoga guys only paid $110,000 as a yearling in the Saratoga sale. This was really before Constitution got hot as a sire, so would call this a mid-range buy. The damContinue reading “Handicapping the Belmont”

I made a small investment with a medium size partnership operation called Pewter Stable. All the horses are trained by Kate DeMasi. I have bet on her horses successfully many times when she ships to New York. She has won over 1000 races, mainly in Pennsylvania. I noticed on their website they had a smallContinue reading “Pewter Stable”

One of my favorite partnership groups to watch is Donegal Racing. They approach things a little differently they buy a group of horses and you must invest in the whole group, not an individual horse. Interesting to note is that they seem to invest only in yearlings, and avoid the 2-yr old sales. It isContinue reading “Other Patnerships”

The under tack show is only 8 days away. I want to build a list of about 20 horses that I am interested in. Maybe I will focus on just 3 price ranges, under $100,000, under $50,000 and under $25,000. The approach will be the same. I am looking for horses I would expect toContinue reading “Timonium”

I contacted both of the big partnership groups this week, and both got back to me very promptly. I have always wanted to keep track of both groups over a couple years. Rather than measure the overall results (ownerview.com does that), I wanted to keep track how I would do if I could actually buyContinue reading “West Point vs Eclipse”

There seem to be many similarities between picking stocks and picking horses, so I will from time to time tell some investing stories. I met a finance professor, Bob, that grew up in the house next to Warren Buffett in Omaha. The told the following story: When Bob was 12 he played softball with Buffett’sContinue reading “Look at Lots of Stocks/Horses”

Just when you think you are beginning to understand the horse sale business, you find another level of complexity. By diving into analyzing the horses available in Ocala, I really missed the big question. Should you be looking at any of the 2-yr old in training sales at all, or should you only be focusedContinue reading “The Big Question”

Let’s pick one winner and one loser from the sale. Loser first. It would be easy to pick of Mr Durant for his $450,000 Runhappy buy (few others sold well), but that would be too easy Instead I will go with #648. Cromwell Bloodstock bought an Algorithms for $120,000 or almost 25x the stud feeContinue reading “A Winner and a Loser”

I have looked at a lot of dams in the past few weeks. I have an intuition for what I like to see, but I thought I would try to measure it. This is just a rough draft, but you to start somewhere. The system has 100 available points. 30 points for dam’s racing abilityContinue reading “Rating Dams”

I also want to keep track of several horses that did not make my final list: #34 Jess’s Dream – might not be completely crazy #460 Midshipman – Matt Scherra bought an interesting one #1109 Super Saver – I have been watching Jeremiah O’Dwyer #1111 Exaggerator – the best one at the sale #928 ShacklefordContinue reading “Keeping Track”

It is quite possible that my strategy of breading a stamina sire to a stamina mare, and then hoping for a slow workout is completely unworkable at these sales. So I spent the morning looking at some sires I considered “toss outs” when I looked through the catalog. I want to see what other folksContinue reading “Broadening My Horizons”

Just as I was done summarizing this sale, I got the email telling me the catalog is now available for the July sale. This is a whole new group of 1000 two year olds. i thought it might contain horses withdrawn from this first sale, but seems to be a whole new group. It looksContinue reading “Madness”

Q’s Blueprint – Maclean’s Music colt is a perfect example of my strategy Q’s Model – Point of Entry filly bred to go 1 1/2 miles Q’s Contender – Bayern colt bought by Wells Bayou’s owner Q’s Canadian – Bodemeister colt that will run at Woodbine Q’s Mistake – Street Sense colt bought for .3xContinue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Roster”

A lot of horse buying seems to be about “fashion”. You want to buy what the other “cool kids” are buying. A counter strategy to this might be to look for obscure stallions. Few could be more obscure than We Miss Artie. He only had 6 yearlings sell last year. We Miss Artie is theContinue reading “Alone”

Another sire I liked, but was sure would be too expensive was Liam’s Map. Maybe Arrogate would have been the best son of Unbridled Song, but that job wil have to stay with Liam’s Map. His $35,000 fee meant I had to think creatively. Hip #339 was a Liam’s Map out of an unraced mareContinue reading “Pedigree”

Or maybe Tourist will do better on the dirt, lets give it a try. #1216 was a Tourist by a Street Sense mare named Jor Jah. She only ran once, but she ran a 93 winning a MSW at Aqueduct. Many years ago my friends father, Biogio, gave a good deal on a used carContinue reading “Rose”

Tourist was another “must” have sire for this year. Kentucky breeders never cared for Tiznow, and I am sure they like his son even less. Bill Mott has confused about this horse. First he nearly win a G1 turf race at 1 1/4, but then he ends up running a dirt mile under 1:31.2. IContinue reading “Genius”

Tapiture was a sire I was in liked after studying Dialed In. The guys at Darby Dan seem to be doing some creative thinking about who should be a sire. Tapiture’s career was solid, but unexciting. His early results have been interesting. For $10,000 he is worth a try. Now all we have to doContinue reading “Contest”

Dialed In is kind of a unique sire to me. Usually I am looking at sires were recent results are bad, so they are undervalued, i.e. Bayern or Carpe Diem. Dialed In is the reverse, his results have been good and getting better. His stud fee was increased to $20,000 and the story is heContinue reading “Improver”

I am sorry, but I am a financial guy so I will keep coming back to this question. How much should I pay for a horse? I took a sample of 20 sires and tried to get a balance of expensive and cheap. The sample might be little bit on the high side. That gaveContinue reading “Valuing Horses”

The partnerships were active buyers at the Ocala sale. In addition to Dare to Dream’s two purchases, there were: Eclipse bought 6 horses including a $200,000 California Chrome, and a $47,000 Flintshsire , and a $125,000 Violence. West Point bought 3, including a $45,000 Ironicus, and a $200,000 Not This Time Ten Strike bought aContinue reading “Partnerships”

Let’s go back to the real world for a moment. I thought this sale was a good place to find value given the general economic uncertainty. So I bought 2% of two horse purchased by Dare to Dream Stables. Dare to Dream is run by two brothers, Michael and Allen Faber. They have been doingContinue reading “My Real Horses”

There were six horses that sold at the Ocala sale that went beyond my price point. It will be interesting to watch them going forward. #529 – Noble Mission -Striking Style – $90 – Larry Hirsch #274 – Temple City – Polish Flower – $40 – Three Diamonds #1276 – Tonalist – Ash Zee –Continue reading “The Fish That Got Away”

I thought Frosted would be the star of the show. His yearlings sold for a median of $180,000 last year. But in this sale only two sold for $180,000, and many sold for much less. It might be called a disaster. Perhaps all the great Frosted’s were sold at the yearling sale, and the goodContinue reading “Frosty”

Carpe Diem was the first sire that I decided was a “must have”. He had a decent but brief racing career, but more importantly he was so good looking as a 2-year old that Stonestreet paid $1,600,000 for him. His offspring’s racing results have not been great, so he “out of favor”. There were 20Continue reading “Starship”

I wanted to buy one fancy horse. Not because I plan to do so next year, but just to compare with my collection of value horses. The prices at the high end of the market seemed quite fair, and many older stallions were not attracting much attention. Malibu Moon is the outstanding son of APContinue reading “Fancy”

I had to have one more Mclean’s Music. I wanted a filly so I can run the babies for the next 20 years. Can you say delusions of grandeur? #334 was a MM filly. The dam was by Arch out and AP Indy mare, once again pure stamina. The dam had a brief 3 raceContinue reading “Music”

El Prado was the father of both Medaglia de Oro and Kitten’s Joy. Summer Front is an interesting new sire that combines War Front with an El Prado mare. I needed to try one. The success of Ete Indien made him a kind of a hot sire, but luckily Ete Indien ran bad the weekContinue reading “El Prado”

I wanted to buy at least one offspring of the new sire Mshawish. The son of Medaglia de Oro ran well on turf and dirt. With Thunder Gulch of the dam side of the pedigree it just screams distance and stamina. There were 5 that sold at the sale. Football’s Bill Parcells bought the mostContinue reading “Chance”

Ironicus is a first year sire that was a champion miler, but his pedigree suggests he could have been more. His stud fee is only $5,000, so he is a value. West Point bought an Ironicus colt for $50,000 the first day. That gave me a little more confidence. As I looked through the IronicusContinue reading “Keller”

Quixote Stables made its first mythical claim today. We spent an imaginary $30,000 to claim a horse named Judicial Restraint out of the first race at Belmont. Claiming horses off of Chad Brown is most likely not a great idea. In fact it might be a horrible idea. This horse is a Tonalist purchased byContinue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Makes a Claim”

Violence was one the sires I was interested in before the sale. I cannot afford Pioneer of the Nile, so why not his son for $25,000. He stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale next to my hero Maclean’s Music. He has been producing top selling yearlings. Maybe this is too expensive for a value guy, butContinue reading “Eclipse”

Wicked Strong was a $6,000 value sire that I had some interest in before the sale. He was not a great at 2, but but then won the Wood Memorial and the Jim Dandy. Then at 4 he got 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a length behind Tonalist. A stamina sire too beContinue reading “Bargain”

I did not come to the sale expecting to buy a Street Sense. His stud fee is $75,000. He is the sire of Maxfield and McKinzie. But his offspring did not sell well at this sale. This is his 10th crop of racing age. Buyers seem a little bored. Along came hip #327 a sonContinue reading “Mistake”

Few sires could be more unpopular than Bodemeister. All his bad work over the past few years got him put on the boat to Turkey by Winstar Farms. Do they race horses in Turkey? Yet a very in depth article in the Thoroughbred Daily News (a must read in the breeding world) considered him aContinue reading “Canadian”

I was never I big fan of the horse Bayern, but then I seldom cheer for Baffert. However, as a sire I had to give him a second look. He did not start as a 2-yr old, and only got good late in the year when he won the Breeder’s Cup Classic at 3. HisContinue reading “Contender”

My top filly purchase is also a perfect example of my strategy. Not many folks arriving in Ocala were saying, “I got to get me one of those Point of Entry’s”. This sire is a solid son of Dynaformer produced some solid winners on all surfaces. Hip #162 was born on April 18th The damContinue reading “Model”

Let’s start with an example of my horse selection strategy is action. Macleans Music is not the world’s most popular sire. In fact since his career consisted of one race, I would guess than 60% of buyers would consider him a “toss out”. His only real claim to fame is producing Preakness winner Cloud Computing.Continue reading “Blueprint”

Let me explain the slightly (or maybe very) controversial method I used to select my portfolio of horses. Step 1 was to avoid all the “over-hyped” sires based on recent results. That means staying away from Constitution, Honor Code, American Pharoah, Nyquist, California Chrome, and others. I also avoid what I consider sprint oriented, orContinue reading “The Road Less Traveled By”

How much should a horse sell for? One way to express the price is as a multiple of a horse’s sire’s current stud fee. For example Macleans Music currently stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale for $20,000. So when the buyer of hip #303 paid $47,000, he 2.35 x the stud fee. What if a fairContinue reading “Multiples”

On a scale of 1 to 10 my knowledge of horse sales just doubled from 1 to 2, but it has a long way to go. What else do I need to learn? I certainly know I need to get much better at judging horses physically and watching workouts. I know my bias is toContinue reading “Things I Need to Learn”

I now understand the horse sale business a little better. The feeling of hope from even buying mythical horses is significant. I can feel the endorphins being released, even though I am 1000 miles away, and not using real money. It as close as an adult can get to the feeling of a 7 yearContinue reading “The Feeling of Hope”

Overall results were down about 20%, but including the supplemental horses it might be a little worse. Median price fell from $60,000 to $50,000. Given the pandemic and social unrest, the results might be called “better than expected”. West Point Partners bought 3 horses, for $385,000, including an Ironicus Eclipse Partners bought 6 horses, forContinue reading “Ocala Sale Summary”

Of course it would be crazy to go to this sale and buy 20 horses. Although a guy named Joseph Besecker did buy 10, none for more than $60,000. The idea was to build a portfolio of horses to watch over the next few years at all different price points from $200,000 to $5,000. ThisContinue reading “Crazy ??”

I guess we need name for this operation. What better for the name, but an imaginary character known for “tilting at windmills’”. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 –Continue reading “Quixote Racing Stable Roster”

I found the perfect horse for my new Fancy Horse Partnership in hip #971. The Malibu Moon colt was sold for $200,000 to Ron Ellis. I assume that Ellis is agent for either the Wygood’s or another fashionable California owner. The work was a solid 21.2. The dam was an unraced Fusaichi Pegasus mare. IContinue reading “Ocala – The Final Day”

I called an emergency meeting of my imaginary partners and raised $200,000 to buy a fancy horse. With average and median price down over 25% on the third day, it is time to be a buyer. If the Dow drops in the morning, it might be an interesting day. I have my eyes on aContinue reading “Day 4 – Plan”

Hip #716 sold to the owner of Starship Stables. The retired Miami lawyer is a big fan of Star Trek (so am i) so he puts Starship in every horse’s name. I think his horses are often trained by Steve Dwoskin, and I have hit several at nice prices over the years. One benefit ofContinue reading “Beam Me Up Scotty”

There is an interesting horse early on the third day. Upstart is an interesting first crop. He was Richie Violette’s last good horse. As a grandson of AP Indy he should be stamina oriented. He had some big sellers in the March sales (one for $600,000), but so far here he has had just oneContinue reading “Hip #638”

The stats for Day 2 of the sale are out, and the picture is worse. Both average and median are down 20% from last year. It is even worse given that this year’s sale includes maybe 50 horses that had intended to sell at the higher class Fasig-Tipton sale that was canceled in March. ManyContinue reading “Day 3 Outlook”

Back in the damn real world I now own 2% of Tapizar colt, hip #456. This is not the horse I would have chosen, but let’s give the Dare to Dream guys a chance to prove me wrong. The dam side is a sprint oriented Dixie Union mare that ran 90-96 Equibase speed figs consistently.Continue reading “Back In the Real World”

I closed 3 of my 6 partnerships today and 3 more reamin open for the last two days of the sale. As I wrote last night the Bargain strategy was too difficult to execute so I used this partnership to buy a Macleans Music filly that I just loved. She is out of a usefulContinue reading “I Bought Some More on Day 2”

I now have a clear plan for day 2. #326 I will go up to $85,000 for this filly, my second favorite for the Oaks Partners #334 I will use the Bargain Partners up to $100,000, for this spectacular filly #351 I will go up to $50,000 for Colt Prospect #359 backup for 351 #367Continue reading “The Haze Has Cleared”

I think the sale went better than expected. Despite all the economic uncertainty the average and median price were down only a few percent. The buyback rate was higher 30% compared to last years 20%. The sale topper was $750,000. My strategy will change a little for day 2. It looks like the Bargain strategyContinue reading “Day 2”

I am sure that every horse buyer has plenty “fish that got away” stories. Here are mine. I was happy to get my top filly, but the interesting one I did not get was the Violence filly #258. Eclipse Partners bought it for $125,000. Maybe I can buy a share in the real world. TheContinue reading “The Fish That Got Away”

I was “successful” in several of my imaginary bids on the first day. Most importantly the price for #303 was only $47,000. I expected to pay more. The price might very well indicate the horse has some problems. The real buyer was a Chicago car dealer named Frank Mancari that has been a successful ownerContinue reading “I Bought Some Mythical Horses”

It has been a fun week watching the works and reading the catalog, but now the shooting begins. I was a getting second thoughts about #13, but I now will go to $50,000. I am not sure how to judge the 3/8ths work, but you have to love the pedigree on the dam side. InContinue reading “It Begins”

In the real world I just got an e-mail from Dare to Dream saying they had received my payment of $2,300 to buy 2% of a purchase at this Ocala sale. Any horse being bid on just might be mine, or more accurately a small part mine. I had invested with Dare to Dream severalContinue reading “Back In the Real World”

Day 1 will be very busy. In my Derby Partnership I will be looking to get hip #303 for $150,000 or less. In my Oaks Partnership I will focus on trying to get #162 for less than $100,000. Otherwise I will wait for #997 In my Prospect Colt Partnership I will pray to get #259Continue reading “Partnerships – Day 1”

I had TVG on for a brief moment yesterday, and I saw a 30 second commercial for Maclean’s Music. I vaguely knew the story of the big 114 Beyer as a maiden, and the success with Cloud Computing. I generally wrote off his offspring as pure sprinters, but the commercial made me think again. ThenContinue reading “Advertising Works”

I am not certain that the under $50,000 price point is the best place to find value at this sale. Here are a few ideas. I would prefer to buy 2 for $25,000, but that might not be practical. #34 – Jess’s Dream is the son of Rachel Alexandra, but only managed one race beforeContinue reading “Bargain Basement”

The bargain strategy is buying expensive sire’s, that had below average works. I think this is a more dangerous strategy, but it might have more upside. #73 – Frosted by European bloodlines, worked a slow 21.4, but I love the pedigree. Frosted stands. Might be a bargain at 2x or $40,000. I think Frosted willContinue reading “The Bargain Strategy”

First lets imagine I had an unlimited budget, what would I buy? The notes after the ——– were done after the sale I did a poor job of picking the expensive horses, some must have some really bad x-rays, becasuse they have fast works and tons of pedigree xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx #1254 this Not This Time fillyContinue reading “Just for Fun”

It is a few hours before the sale, and I can feel the anticipation. Will I get #162 at my price (under $150,000). The early action is #13. Can I snag a Carpe Diem for less than $50,000? Maybe #51 for $35,000 or less? I will be fascinated to see how the slow working sell,Continue reading “Day One of the Sale”

I will operate 6 mythical partnerships going into this auction. The purpose is to imagine the bidding strategy required over a 4 day auction. I admire the work done at West Point, Team Valor, Starlight, Ten Strike, and all the smaller partnerships. I have invested with Dare to Dream in the past, and just purchasedContinue reading “Partnerships”

The basic strategy will be the same, but with fillies I might focus a little more on pedigreee and a little less on work out times. I still want some long distance ability, and fillies from second tier sires. Maybe the price ranges should be a little less, but I still would prefer 5x, butContinue reading “12 Fillies to Win the 2021 Oaks, or at Least Be Good Broodmares for the Next 20 Years.”

I would love to buy each of these colts at 5x their stud fee, but I would certainly pay 10x. For the top 5 I might even go 20x. There were 14 works of 9.4 and 100 10.0, there were also 34 works of 20.4 or faster. That is 148 horses that had fast worksContinue reading “12 Colts to Win the 2021 Derby, or at Least an Allowance Race at Turfway”

The first thing I learned is that the horses run in a random order. They do not start with hip #1. They also included some horses from the supplement on this first day. The pace is about 30 horse per hour. After about 50 horses they pause 15 minutes to rework the track. About 2/3Continue reading “The Under Tack Show Begins”

The purpose of this blog is to document my journey toward the purchase of a successful race horse. The journey begins a hour before the first under tack show of the Spring OBS 2-year old in training sale in Ocala. The process of buying a race horse is complicated, but you have to start somewhere.Continue reading “INTRODUCTION”