Category Archives: Uncategorized

Here is my new crazy idea. The Keeneland sale is less than a month away. I am planning to attend. My goal is to leave the sale with 100 horses to follow, in these categories (20 in each): Over $200,000 – just for fun with no budget $120,000 to $200,000 – the horses I reallyContinue reading “100 Horses”

The Keeneland catalog is out without photos or videos. I am looking for horses in the $40,000 – $80,000 price range. I will start with session 8. Last year the median price was $60,000 for this session. #2370 to #2780 I am looking for: Mares with the breeding to be decent 2 turn horses, orContinue reading “Keeneland 2022 – First Steps”

The big yearling sale was a little too expensive for my taste. There were 14 horses that sold for more than $1million, the median price inched forward to $375,000. The RNA percentage was fairly low. even with the market down 20% horses are still expensive. There was one horse that I was interested in thatContinue reading “Saratoga Yearlings 2022”

Not sure what to make of this yearling sales. Last year the median was $80,000 and the average $100,000. What a mess. After looking at the horses, I understand this sale even less. One possibility is that this is the Wesly Ward sale. The idea might be for pinhookers to get the horse even earlierContinue reading “FT – July”

This is the first of many profile’s of good 2 year old’s that I “missed” at the Keeneland sale last year. Divemaster made a strong late run to win a $120,000 MSW at Churchill. He did not beat much, but the late run was visually impressive. Divemaster is a son of Mastery. Mastery was aContinue reading “Profile #1”

I guess I should look at Donegal’s 2021 yearling group, so I can see if I am missing another Belmont winner. Here is the Donegal group from Keeneland 2021: Donegal Danny – Maclean’s Music by a Gio Ponti mare. $290,000 – Just to taunt me Donegal went with a sprint oriented sire for their mostContinue reading “Donegal Revisited”

The obvious question is should I be willing to change my strategy to be be more accepting of sires like Uncle Mo, and horses like Mo Donegal? Uncle Mo himself is up to a stud free of $160,000, so the real question is sires “like” him. The answer is obvious. I will stubbornly refuse toContinue reading “Strategy Change?”

Every good fisherman has a story about the big fish that got away. Now I have exactly that same story. In 2021 I talked with a nice man named Jerry Crawford about investing in his partnership that focused on winning Triple Crown races. Donegal racing had a nice group of 8 horse, with the mostContinue reading “The Fish That Got Away”

I just cannot let those poor results from Myracehorse is the previous post go unanswered. If all you can do is earn 50% of your expenses by buying $250,000 yearlings in 2020 (at least $325,000 today), then horse racing might be best left for royalty. Let’s try to build two 14 horse portfolio’s with lastContinue reading “Quixote vs. Myracehorse”

Below are the 14 horses that Myracehorse.com put together two years ago and sold micro-shares. I “invested” $50. The results are a little scary. They bought over $3,000,000 of horses and have won about $500,000 in purse money. A very rough estimate of training expenses would be 13 horses x 18 months x $4,000/month =Continue reading “Reality”

I am going to change my sire ranking going forward. Horses are getting more expensive and it seems to be the right time to react to that reality. For the foreseeable future I am limiting my choices to sires of $20,000 and below. As I face the reality of paying real money for a realContinue reading “Sire Ranking – 2022”

There are plenty of interesting new sires for 2022. I think that at least 6 will move into my top 10 right away. Catholic Boy – $20,000 stud fee – median yearling $40,000 – he brings dirt and turf ability with a nice combination of More Than Ready from a Bernadini mare, and a familyContinue reading “New Sires – 2022”

I would be a great hypocrite if I did not pick Nest to win this Belmont. She is the ultimate plodder/plodder with great breeding that should love the 1 1/2 mile distance. She is also partially owned by the nice folks at Eclipse. I wish there was more pace in the race to set upContinue reading “Belmont – 2022”

I am very skeptical of this sale. While walking around the Ocala sale in April I heard one medium size consigner asked, “what kind of horses will you have in June?” the consigner responded all to honestly, ” I have two that are ok, and about a dozen bad ones” If the horse are anyContinue reading “Ocala June – 2022”

I did get a chance to attend this sale in person. I learned that maybe half of the horses have fairly significant vet issues. The reported median price of a horse from this sale is $50,000, but I would guess that the median price for a “clean” horse with an average work time is overContinue reading “Timonium – 2022”

Since I did have Rombauer last year, let’s take a shot at two in a row. My pick is Early Voting. Owner Seth Klarman was an investor that purchased our research for over 15 years. He is an interesting guy to watch buy horses. In the real world Seth is a value investor. He doesContinue reading “Preakness 2022”

Let’s try to pick the Derby with a focus on breeding: Messier – There is only one horse in the field that has been bred to win this race since birth. The 3rd dam here was a Canadian champion, and a son on Super Derby winner Seeking the Gold. That champion was bred to APContinue reading “Kentucky Derby – 2022”

There is a very important conclusion from this exercise. Half the field for this $1,250,000 race comes from a very humble, less than $75,000, background. The other half are fairly expensive, well bred, fillies. You can always dream. Half the field sold at the Keeneland sale Let’s look the Oaks from a breeding perspective, andContinue reading “Kentucky Oaks – 2022”

The next two year old in training sale comes up in 3 weeks. Let’s take a a more realistic approach to this sale and try to come up with just two horses. I want to find one Kentucky-bred and one NY-bred. Rather than building long lists, I want to deal with the reality of buyingContinue reading “Timonium – May 2022”

It always good to find an inspiring story. As I studied hip #834, I found this story about Gunpowder Farms and the discovery of Divisidero: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219049/success-coming-in-bunches-for-gunpowder-farms. There are several interesting elements to this story: Keithley first invested in a few partnerships before setting out to buy his first yearling. Keithley set out to buy anContinue reading “Inspiration”

After attending the Ocala sale, it is time to deconstruct what I just witnessed: I am even more convinced that what I really want to buy is yearlings. What I saw here were plenty of larger, sprint oriented, horses. After the 2020 show, a prominent buyer called Ocala “a quarter horse show”. I certainly agree,Continue reading “Ocala April – Rethought”

At the last minute I decided to attend in person. After seeing the horses in Ocala, I remain committed to the idea of buying yearlings. As I expected, there are not that many two turn horse on the grounds. However, maybe 20% of the horses are worth thinking about. Lets try to find 4-5 horsesContinue reading “Ocala April 2022”

It is time to get “back on the horse” again. I have not spent that much time on the early 2 year olds sales. The more I learn, the less I am interested in these sales. Now that I have watched some of my yearlings from 2021 develop, I just cannot imagine getting a horseContinue reading “Spring 2022”

One of the big reasons that you invest in yearlings is the potential for the big, “asymmectric”, return. It can be very frustrating to look at a list of 20 yearlings and find only 6 that have won a MSW race. What you have to remember is the chance for the big payoff. On theContinue reading “Asymmetric”

This list has changed quite often over the last two years. This list reflects what I saw at Keeneland with by own eyes Right now be top 10 sire list is: Oscar Performance – the best cheap turf sire? Cairo Prince – kind of second tier turf sire, with decent dirt ability Mendelssohn – IContinue reading “Current Top Sire List”

Now let’s try to look back at the Keeneland sale and find the best horses. Let’s use this outline: That is a total of 70 horses to focus on. I would call it a success if 25 won a MSW at a decent track. Only a modest success if 20 win a MSW, and mostlyContinue reading “Executing the Best Strategy”

Let me try to consolidate all I have learned into the best strategy to employ going forward. I am 90% sure I want to buy yearlings rather than 2 year olds in training. I would rather bring a horse along slowly, rather than rush their training. I am 75% sure I want to pursue aContinue reading “Building the Best Strategy”

The Kentucky Derby trail is still a very cloudy picture. Let’s look at the top horses at the Circa Sports book and see what breeding strategies we can learn from the top horses. Corniche – The BC Juvenile winner is a son of the great Quality Road. He is from a solid mare that wonContinue reading “Kentucky Derby Trail”

Now that I have finished my list of 200 yearlings, it is time to go back and do some polishing. The goal in these “focus on” posts is to try ranking the horse a little more closely. Obviously this is done with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, but it is still a useful exercise. WhatContinue reading “Focus On – Oscar Performance”

Am I crazy? What is the reason to pick so many horses? The answer is, I really want to understand the “empty mare” strategy. I realize the strategy I used last year was incorrect. When people like super bloodstock agent Liz Crow said: “I only look at the pedigree page to see what I amContinue reading “Why 100 Horses?”

my real horses from the FT Oct sale the best partnership horses f – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred f – Classic Empire – Strikealinethruit by Officer, foaled 1/20,Continue reading “Project #9 – Everything Else”

I want to concentrate of two second year sires. Unified is a son of Candy Ride, and therefore bring more precocious speed than most of my favorite sires. Yet he is a product of my favorites at Centennial Farms that focus on two turn horse. I saw several nice looking Unified’s at Keeneland this September.Continue reading “Project #8 – Unified and Connect”

This is the grab bag. These are sires that I want to keep track of, but not focus on. Interesting to note that Donato Lanni bought a POE, a Temple City, and a Mucho Macho Man. Maybe third tier sires is a good idea for a limited budget. It is good to have a wideContinue reading “Project #7 – Third Tier Sires”

Any one of these more experienced sires might be a top idea. They are all strong stamina stallions that not that popular with the “cool kids”. Maybe these are a better choice than the first and second years sires. Blame Liam’s Map Union Rags Honor Code Twirling Candy Street Sense Blame – c – LunarContinue reading “Project #6 – Stamina”

Mendelssohn is my choice to focus on because he might be a decent turf sire. He is a son of Scat Daddy, and is 4×5 to the great turf influence Nijinsky. There is also some chance he will not be precocious enough for the US market. At $35,000, Mendelssohn is a little pricey. His firstContinue reading “Project #5 – Mendelsshon”

Cairo Prince is decent turf sire, and there are not many alternatives. I am not thrilled with. this group of mares, but that is often the case with low priced sires. I generally liked the the look of the CP’s I saw in Lexington. Auntie Sparkles – c – by More Than Ready, $75,000 SoCalContinue reading “Project #4 – Cairo Prince/Bernardini”

The second year sires I am most excited about are Connect and Unifi. Right now Gun Runner and Practical Joke are too popular. These are the others that I still want to keep an eye on. Mastery and Classic Empire have been worse than expected given the premium prices last year. Gormley’s sold well atContinue reading “Project #3 – 2nd Year Sires”

Bolt d’Oro Funtastic Good Samaritan Girvin West Coast City of Light Good Magic Tapwrit Always Dreaming Collected Accelerate Ransom the Moon Army Mule Cloud Computing Sharp Azteca f – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb, 5/8 foal, $130,000 from Taylor Made, C+ nick, beautiful, sleek, athletic build, my favorite c – Bolt d’Oro –Continue reading “Project #2 – First Year Sires”

It is time to get organized. The goal of buying a real yearling in 2022, or more likely 2023, is a daunting task. I must begin somewhere. My focus will begin with sires, not because I think that is the most important variable, but only because it is a way to get organized. In fact,Continue reading “Project #1 – Oscar Performance”

On the eve of the Breeder’s Cup let’s think about Malathaat. She is a beautifully bred daughter of Curlin. The dam is Dreaming of Julia who won the Frizette and Gulfstream Oaks. She was 3rd in the BC Juvenile Fillies and 4th in the Kentucky Oaks. In total she earned almost $900,000 in a 8Continue reading “Thinking About Malathaat”

Panic. Panic is what happens when you top ideas do not work out and the sale is nearing its end. Day 1 – #216 – Bolt d’Oro must have had vet problems and sold for only $4,500, then #245 (a Mendelssohn filly) sold for $140,000 Day 2 – #606 – a Mastery filly, was aContinue reading “FT-Oct. – Day 4”

Prices were up strong on the 2nd day of the sale. The average grew to almost $50,000 and the median rose to $25,000. That is not good news for bargain hunters. West Point, Eclipse, and Dare tp Dream each bought a mid-priced horse and an Empire Maker went for $750,000. My top horse #606 wasContinue reading “FT-Oct. – Day 3”

Day one went about as expected. The average came in about $40,000, just about the same as 2019. The median was also similar at $17,000. There were plenty of “problem” horses on sale. Many horses sold for less than 1x the stud fee (an indication of vet problems). None of the partnerships bought a horse.Continue reading “FT-Oct. – Day 2”

It is two hours before the October Fasig-Tipton yearling sale. I am excited and confused. That is bad situation, but not unexpected. Based just on pedigree I should wait for #606, but the video is just ok, and not great. She would be a good mom for Honor AP. Then #927 also is a solidContinue reading “What Would I Do?”

Let’s get in the spirit and spend some imaginary money. The idea is to spend $1,300,000 on 4 horses just like Centennial did. I will use the same strategy of buying “empty mares”. I was very impressed by the Bolt d’Oro’s that I saw at the sale. So in the spirit of reckless spending let’sContinue reading “Quixote vs Centennial”

I am very impressed by the group of horses put together by Centennial Farms at the Keeneland sale. Obviously, they spent a lot of money in a very expensive market. My approval is with the quality of the horses purchased, not the prices they paid. It is important to note that I now fully understandContinue reading “Centennial Farms 2021”

Would I really buy one of these horses? They have pedigree characteristics I would love to have in a broodmare. What if they were also really good looking? What if I could get them for $50,000 of less with a clean vet sheet? In general the average price in this sale was a $40,000 averageContinue reading “Fasig-Tipton October”

Cairo Prince Honor Code Point of Entry Mastery Oscar Performance Connect – too popular right now Bolt d’Oro – maybe too popular right now Unified Bernardini City of Light – too popular right now Funtastic Mendelssohn Tonalist Dialed In West Coast Midnight Storm Good Magic Astern Ransom the Moon Collected Blame American Freedom Shamen GhostContinue reading “New Favorite Sires List”

Here is what I am looking for in the yearling I would like to buy: My price range is $30,000 to $100,000, but with a partner that might include prices up to roughly $150,000. My preference would strongly lean toward buying a filly that might have residual value as a mare. My preference would beContinue reading “Let The Search Begin”

Eventually this post will list all the horses that I liked from the Keeneland sale. It will take awhile to build out to at least 20 horses. These are horses that looked good. In general they had athletic walks. f – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb, 5/8 foal, $130,000 from Taylor Made, C+Continue reading “My Favorites From Keeneland 2021”

I have 5% of 2 yearlings purchased by Blue Streak Racing with the help of Oracle Bloodstock and Ray Handel: f – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred f –Continue reading “My Current Yearlings”

I had the unique experience of walking around with Brandon and Natalie from Brilliant Racing for 7 days at the Keeneland yearling sale. I learned so much it will be difficult to write it all down. Right now I am going to focus on the upcoming yearling sale on October 25-28, called Fasig-Tipton October. OverContinue reading “A New Direction”

I will use this one post to keep track of my favorite ideas as the sale goes along. These are ranked from top to bottom. #550 – c – Mastery – Spring Street by Street Cry – B nick, 3/17 foal, $190,000 – The good folks at Centennial Farms bought one of my “challenge idea”.Continue reading “Keeneland Scoreboard”

The cool kids opened their wallets and started spending. The median price jumped to $400,000 on the second day. The two day median settled at $350,000 about as expected, but the bargains were on day 1. I thought the horse of the day was: #317 – c – Collected – Coronation Street by Street Cry,Continue reading “Keeneland – Day 2”

Horse sales are opaque. That is a fancy word for cloudy or not transparent. There were several strange RNA’s yesterday. What is even more strange is that these horses are not being re-offered at the end of day 2 under a new rule at this year’s sale. I understand that the consigner pays 2.5% toContinue reading “I Don’t Understand”

It was fun to walk around the barns in the morning and watch the cool kids look at their $500,000 potential purchases. It is something every racing fan should do once. Bidding was actually a little below my expectations. Mean and average were pretty close to last year. The results could be skewed because thereContinue reading “Keeneland – Day 1”

How do you buy a $100,000 yearling at the Keeneland sale? Let’s try to figure out where to start. My best guess is session 5. Maybe you could find a value in session 4, but the odds are against it. There will actually be a dark day between session 4 and 5 this year. Let’sContinue reading “How?”

I need to apologize to all those I have accused of buying “empty mares”. I have been critical of Starlight and others as they pay relatively high prices for horses where the mare never ran an good race or never produced a decent foal. I was wrong to be critical of this strategy. It isContinue reading “An Apology”

As I make my drive to the Keeneland yearling sale, I am stopping at the glamorous Southland dog track in West Memphis, to watch Quick Tempo run at Monmouth. They have free Wifi so let’s write down a few thoughts. In all honesty I am not that excited about buying yearlings this year. I haveContinue reading “The Challenge”

Quick Tempo – will run in a 5 furlong dirt sprint at Mommouth on Saturday. let’s see how he recovers from the flop at Del Mar. He has been working well. Sophie Doyle will ride. Blonde on Tap – still recovering from her leg issues, and looking for a race in the Midwest. Song SaverContinue reading “Real Horse Update”

A friend from Lone Star Park sent me his 10 choices from the NY-bred sale. Let’s watch these horses over the next few years. This is a group with high quality mares that leads to an above median price point. An investment guy might call this a “growth stock strategy” as opposed to a “valueContinue reading “Another Point of View”

It was disappointing to have #301 go for such a high price. The median for the first night was $80,000, up from $60,000 in 2019. The big partnerships were quiet. Small partnership Dream Maker Racing bought the topper paying $495,000 for an Uncle Mo. Wow, that is a lot for a small group. My mainContinue reading “Saratoga – NY Breds -Day 2”

My favorite horse by a large margin is the first horse in the sale. I would love to get her for $50,000, but I would be willing to pay more. I might go up to $125,000 because i like her that much. It would be tough in the real world to not wait for Keeneland.Continue reading “Saratoga – NY Breds”

A strong second day brought the Saratoga sale to an about as expected conclusion. The median increased to $350,000 (from $300,000 in 2019) and a few big horses pushed the average to $408,000. There were the expected amount of RNA’s and withdrawals. I thought the Into Mischief’s sold poorly. (only 3 of 19 IM’s soldContinue reading “Saratoga Sale – Conclusion”

Prior to writing about buying race horses, I was writing about an intelligent approach to sports gambling. If you have no interest in sports gambling, please ignore this post. If you want to understand why my favorite sires are Honor Code and Point of Entry, and not the popular Into Mischief and Uncle Mo, thenContinue reading “Sports Gambling”

As I sort through my favorites at the Fasig-Tipton NY-bred sale, a clear favorite emerges. It is the first horse in the sale, hip #301, a filly by Dialed In. Here is what I like: The 2nd dam, Party Cited, ran a 115 Equibase fig at 1 3/8 miles to win a Grade 3 turfContinue reading “My Favorite”

Quick Tempo will run Saturday in the G2 Bing Crosby at Del Mar. He is listed at 12-1 against a field that includes last year’s BC Sprint runner-up CZ Rocket. The choice was to run in this race against older horses, but only go 6 furlongs vs. going 6 1/2 vs straight 3 year oldsContinue reading “Stakes Action”

The next catalog to appear is for a sale of 308 New York breds that will occur a few days after the main Saratoga sale. This is a much more realistic sale for my price range. In 2018 the median at this sale was $76,000, and in 1019 it was only $60,000. These are reasonablyContinue reading “NY Breds”

What would do if I had to buy one horse at this sale for say $350,000? One strategy would be do buy a boring Quality Road. The good ones will sell for more, but maybe I could get the bottom one. I am not sure this is the best strategy, but it would be aContinue reading “Thinking About Quality Road”

One more popular sire that is new is the $35,000 Mendelssohn. Maybe he could be a decent turf sire, but I have my doubts. He is a half brother to Into Mischief and Beholder, so there just might be too much popularity. Menelssohn’s father, Scat Daddy, was a precocious winner of the Sanford Stakes atContinue reading “Thinking About Mendelssohn”

There is a lot of thinking to do on a boring Sunday morning. Street Sense is a sire that is out of my price range at $60,000, but maybe I can find a sneaky one at this sale. Maxfield is exactly the kind of horse I am looking for, Street Sense out of a BernardiniContinue reading “Think About Street Sense”

Another first year sire with lots of excitement is the $30,000 Good Magic. Anyone that loves stamina, should love a son of Curlin. I have my reservations. Good Magic is 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector, and his photo is exactly that. He seems to be big strong horse without lots of length. I preferContinue reading “Thinking About Good Magic”

The strong performance of Wit reminds us of the greatness of Medaglia d’Oro (Wit’s broodmare sire). Yet we have not found that great son of M d’O. Mshawish seems to be a washout, and Violence has really only produced sprinters. Warriors Reward stands in Pennsylvania. Enticed is a year away. Astern could be interesting, butContinue reading “Thinking About Bolt d’Oro”

The battle for the 2022 Kentucky Derby began yesterday with the running of the Sanford Stakes (G3) at Saratoga. Only one winner in the last 25 years of this race was ever competitive in the Derby (Afleet Alex finished 3rd in the Derby, but won the Preakness and Belmont). The other winners either stayed sprintersContinue reading “The Battle Begins”

Congratulation to the folks at Zilla Racing for winning a nice allowance race on the opening day of Saratoga. That is not an easy thing to do for a smaller stable. That race made me think one more time about a horse they bought at the OBS sale and are still offering 1% of forContinue reading “Drakon”

Maybe I am too negative of this group of new sires. I pushed myself to become moderately convinced that Collected could be a good sire, even though he is a son of sprint oriented City Zip. But Collected is so boring that he could not even get one horse in the fancy Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale.Continue reading “Thinking Harder, City of Light”

The Saratoga yearling sale will occur in 3 weeks. The catalog is 210 horses. In 2019 the median price was $300,000+, so it is really out of my price range. In 2019 there were 10 horses that sold for $150,000 or less (the cheapest was $100,000) Liz Crow thinks that you can sometimes find valueContinue reading “Saratoga Yearling Sale”

As I wrote the sire ranking, I realized that it is just a method to organize my thought process. I would prefer to find an Honor Code, but actually any top 30 sire might be acceptable if I find the right mare. So exactly what am I looking for in a mare? Ranked from mostContinue reading “What Do I Really Want?”

The pressure of the first yearling sales is already here. It is time to do a new ranking that adds the new sires, and rethinks the current market. Honor Code is still my favorite, and my main goal is to recreate Honor AP in some fashion. Twirling Candy is just too popular and therefore takesContinue reading “Sire Ranking – Again”

Let’s try to do the partnership rankings again, but let’s define the terms a little more carefully. Which partnership am I most likely to invest with over the next over the next 15 months (that considers yearling sales next year)? These ranking reflect my bias toward selecting stamina oriented horses. Blue Streak – Tim hasContinue reading “Partnership Rankings July 2021”

One partnership group I had been watching, but never communicated with, is Brilliant Racing. They have been moderately successful with some 2 year old in training selections, but I was not sure what they would do next. I had added my name to their mailing list over a year ago. Yesterday I received a veryContinue reading “A Brilliant Idea”

The first yearling sale has ended with mixed results. The median sale price increased to $80,000 from a median of $75,000 in 2019 (this sale was not held last year). Let’s call that OK, but not great. The RNA rate was reported at 33%, but was actually closer to 40% when considering withdrawals. Eclipse firedContinue reading “F/T July Yearlings Conclusion”

Quick Tempo (Tapizar) ran a nice comeback race at Prairie Meadows Blonde on Tap (Tapiture) is recovering from leg surgery and is galloping at Arlington Song Saver (Super Saver) is waiting for his second race at Parx Tonalistic (Tonalist) is waiting for his second race at Saratoga Ribot’s Valentine (Point of Entry) might get herContinue reading “Real Horse Update”

I have been writing for more than a year about the need to find stamina in young horses, yet the one successful young horse I own part of (2%) might be the quickest horse in recent memory. Quick Tempo made his comeback race from a knee chip in the $100,000 Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows.Continue reading “Irony”

Let’s focus on hip #103 in the upcoming Fasig-Tipton July sale: #103 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch – April 1, B nick What do I like so much: I would rather buy a filly, and not have to pay for the potential stud value of a colt I want a sire thatContinue reading “A Yearling I Like”

Some other ideas from freshman sires: #43 – Bolt D’ Oro (Medaglia d’ Oro) – very nice Lemon Drop Kid mare (OUT BEFORE SALE) #98 – Accelerate (Looking for Lucky, Lane’s End) – Giant’s Causeway, decent 2nd dam, $25,000 #325 – Always Dreaming (Bodemeister) – some Euro pedigree on female side, RNA $34,000 #39 –Continue reading “More Fasig/Tipton July”

The world be a better place if the sale’s companies went back and published the results of the horses they sold. It takes a little work, but you can do the calculations yourself. so I did. Since the early Fasig/Tipton July sale was not held last year, let’s review the 2019 version. About 200 horsesContinue reading “Expectations ?”

Let’s look at one fancy horse by $40,000 new sire City of Light: #255 – c – City of Light by Pleasant Mine, April 30 foal, B+ nick, 4/30 foal The first dam in by AP Indy’s son Mineshaft, the 2nd dam in by Pleasant Tap, and the 3rd dam in by stamina influence TheContinue reading “One Fancy Horse”

Here are my ideas from my top 10 sires: #244 – Honor Code – Hard Spun mare, iffy, B nick, RNA $34,000 #277 – Tonalist – 2nd dam by Dynaformer, A++ nick, nick of Country Grammer, $35,000 #127 – Connect – 2nd dam produced Peace Rules, B+ nick, $135,000 #346 – Twirling Candy – 2ndContinue reading “Oldies, But Goodies”

There are some turf ideas in the July Fasig/Tipton sale worth thinking about: #64 Funtastic – mare by Point of Entry, 2nd dam by Street Cry, C nick, withdrawn #33 Mendelssohn – 2nd dam by Pleasant Colony, D nick, withdrawn #42 Mendelssohn – Lemon Drop Kid mare, $185,000 #176 Mendelssohn – 2nd dam by Kingmambo,Continue reading “Turf Ideas”

Rather than pick a new sire, I decided to pick a farm that I like. That led my to Airdrie Stud and their new sire, Collected. I was never a City Zip fan, but Collected did win at 1 and 1/4 miles, and has some decent Euro pedigree in his female family. Since both CairoContinue reading “Trying To Get Excited”

The yearling season is about to begin with select group of 346 horses going on sale in Lexington on July 14th. These horses included 139 by new freshman sires. This is a strange group of horses. It seems the better pedigrees are found in the Keeneland sale in September. This seems like a sale designedContinue reading “The Beginning of a New Beginning”

It is difficult to keep track of all of the horses from last year’s sales. but I did have another big winner this weekend. The crazy son of Bodemeister won a 7 furlong MSW turf race at Woodbine by 3 lengths and earned an Equibase fig of 99. He now has carrer earnings of $52,000Continue reading “Not Well Organized”

I may well regret not buying a part of West Point’s yearling offering last year. I gave serious consideration to a son of Street Sense that has been named Brigadier General. I could have had 5% for about $20,000. WP paid $160,000, less than 3x the stud fee. He was a yearling purchase at theContinue reading “Regret?”

It has been my goal to stay positive in writing this blog, but I have to call things as I see them. It has been disappointing to watch the lack of patience shown by the major partnership groups. All of them have been quite willing to drop their expensive yearling purchases into claiming races veryContinue reading “Disappointing”

Let’s think about that group of sires with fees from $50,000 to $90,000. This is not usually a group I shop in, but maybe I am missing a value idea. My rank would be: Street Sense $60,000 – avg 2020 yearling = $100,000 Candy Ride $75,000 – avg yearling = $150,000 Gun Runner $50,000 –Continue reading “Ranking the High-End Sires”

The clear second choice in my ranking of stud farms is the very interesting Airdrie Stud. This smaller operation has two of my top five sires, Cairo Prince and American Freedom. Airdrie is the work of former Kentucky Governor Brereton Jones. They are located in Midway, Kentucky. There motto is “Think About It”. This groupContinue reading “Cheering For Airdrie Stud”

I found that a good way to learn about soccer (a sport I knew nothing about), was to pick a team (I chose Liverpool) and cheer for them. I am now officially a Lane’s End Farm supporter, and therefore against those evil guys from Winstar, Claiborne, and all the other stud farms. Let’s build aContinue reading “Cheering For Lane’s End Farm”

If you pointed a gun at me and forced me to buy a horse by a “super sire” (stud fee $100,000 or more) who would it be? Medaglia d’ Oro – Darley Curlin – Hill ‘N’ Dale Quality Road – Lane’s End Tapit – Gainsway American Pharoah – Ashford Uncle Mo – Ashford War FrontContinue reading “Ranking the Super Sires”

There is a clear winner when I rank the stud farms. Lane’s End – 9 of my top 20 sires Airdrie – Cairo Prince and American Freedom – 2 of my top 10 Adena Springs – Point of Entry and Shaman Ghost – 2 of my top 10 Taylor Made – my #3 Midnight StormContinue reading “Ranking the Stud Farms”

I just can’t stop. 100 is not enough, I need 5 more. No idea is too crazy. After all the sales what did I forget? Fly Me Home – Temple City – Fusaichi Pegasus – $120,000 – I have always been a Temple City fan, and Fu Peg is a great broodmare sire, 4 worksContinue reading “Give Me 5 More”

After the yearling sales in 2020 I did build a 12 horse group of these unloved sires. Let’s see how many have names. Ok, 9 of 12 have names. Midshipman – Wow Me Free by Menifee – $17,000 – dam and 2nd dam were solid runners and producers. A+ nick, Harlan Free, ran two 40’sContinue reading “The Dirty Dozen Revisited”

This is what you find at the bottom (Kentucky only): Air Force Blue – $10,000 – willing to consider Flintshire – $10,000 – hanging on by a thread Jimmy Creed – $10,000 – sprinter Karakontie – $10,000 – maybe I should know more Klimt – $10,000 – willing to consider Lord Nelson – $10,000 –Continue reading “Bargain Sires”

I think this a reasonable way to review sires, so let’s look at the next group of sires. $20,000, but more than $10,000 Honor Code – $20,000 – my top sire Looking at Lucky – $20,000 – only one over $25,000 at KEE Maclean’s Music – $20,000 – beginning to loose interest Palace Malice –Continue reading “Low to Mid Range Sires”

In the previous post I looked at the top 20 most expensive sires. In my effort to find great “values” these are sires I usually ignore. I am going to let the “cool kids” buy these horses. But what about the next 20? Am I overlooking values in those “mid-range” sires? These are all theContinue reading “The Next 20”

I have presented my plodder/plodder top 100, but there are some more speed oriented names on that list. I also just presented a group of 20 more conventional choices that feature more precocious sires. What is missing? How about some horses from the expensive sires? I think this creates some problems. Trying to stay withinContinue reading “What Is Missing?”

What if I tried to build a portfolio that was not based on my plodder/plodder strategy? Let’s try for a more speed oriented group of horses. The sires will be more speed leaning and the mares will not need to add stamina. The first 13 are Keeneland yearlings, the last 7 are Ocala two yearContinue reading “Conventional Portfolio”

Here are 100 two year old’s of 2021 that I will be watching for the next several years: 40 horses that I selected as yearlings in 2020 40 horses that I selected from two year olds in training sales this Spring 10 more expensive horses that I selected as yearlings to compete with the partnershipContinue reading “100 Horses”

This is my stallion ranking before two year old racing starts in a big way. These are my best “value” sires and is my first thought of what yearlings I will be looking for. The number at the end each line is how many are in my top 100. Stud fees of $40,000 or less.Continue reading “Stallion Ranking”

This would have been a difficult sale in the real world. About 10 of the horses I was interested in sold for well above their expected prices. In the real world I am not sure I would have paid up for the Connect filly. At $85,000, it would have been on the top end ofContinue reading “Ocala June – Final Results”

Here are my results from last July’s sale at Ocala. They are not impressive. Of the 20 selected, none have been good, 5 have been ok, 9 have been bad, and 6 are either unnamed or not working. Those results are why are why I view this as a “problem horse sale”. That might beContinue reading “Results July – Ocala Last Year”

I should be more excited about this sale, but I have just not found that many horses I like. Maybe I am just becoming a grumpy old man. My goal is to pick 5 horses I like for about the average price. In 2019 the median for this sale was $17,000 and the average $35,000,Continue reading “Ocala – June Begins”

The leftover sale is nearly here. Another 900+ two year olds in training will go on sale next week. To it seems this is the “problem horse” sale. The only reason that a seller would have waited two months for this sale is if his horse had significant problems. The big buyers hardly even participateContinue reading “Getting Ready for Ocala – June”

I guess I will be cheering for Rombauer, but betting on Known Agenda in today’s Belmont. I have to believe that a Twirling Candy out of stamina oriented mare has the best chance of going 1 1/2 miles. But the win in the Preakness will make Rombauer overbet, so my money will go to KnownContinue reading “Belmont Stakes Day”

The 2 year old in training sales are finally done. I “selected ” 30 horses out of the 5 sales, to go with the 40 I “selected” out of the yearling sales. That is a lot of horses to keep track of, so let’s pause and focus on five horses. These 5 are the bestContinue reading “Focus on Five”

Sometimes you see a price from these sales that is “to good to be true” or TGTBT. These are horses that have decent pedigrees and above average works that sell for less than say 3x their stud fee. I have tried to avoid these horse when making my selections. For example, last year Eclipse boughtContinue reading “The TGTBT Puzzle”

I need a horse to be excited about. The more I looked at my list, the more I realized I wasn’t just looking at second choices, but more like third or fourth choices. I thought there were some decent bargains among the 10.2 yesterday. The range was fairly consistent from $50,000 to $150,000. I haveContinue reading “Timonium Day 2”

After a bad start with hip #1, the day progressed about as expected with some high prices and RNA’s. The average was $93,000 and the median was $45,000, slightly higher than 2019. I was able to add 2 horses to my group. I paid up for a son of Unified with a fast work, andContinue reading “Timonium Day 1”

I am not that excited by this group of horses. Last year I did poorly trying to find bargains, so this year I will try to find some fair prices. I am worried about buying TGTBT horses. One interesting horse is hip #1. This filly is by Mineshaft out of a producing Kingmambo mare. TheContinue reading “Timonium Begins”

A. a Napa Valley vineyard B. an author of a famous cookbook C. the horse I had at 90-1 in the Kentucky Derby futures pool D. the new Preakness champion A, B, C, and D are correct What did I see in Rombauer after his closing 5th in the BC Juvenile? Twirling Candy (Rombauer’s dad)Continue reading “What Is a Rombauer?”

I will be cheering for Rombauer in the Preakness. I became a big fan of Twirling Candy last year, and I am sticking with the TC theme. If Medina Spirit, Concert Tour, and Midnight Bourbon duel then maybe the late runners can pick up the pieces. Mike McCarthy is the type of low profile trainerContinue reading “Woman With a Plan”

Let’s start to build a list for Timonium after the works are done. I have four slots to fill to finish my 2 year old in training list. Two years ago in rough terms the average for this sale was $90,000 and the median was $45,000. That should be a reasonable estimate for this year.Continue reading “Timonium 2021”

If I had do choose one word to describe the performance of the major yearling partnerships it would be — paralyzing. I could have chosen from — terrifying, miserable, horrifying, ugly, and many other adjectives, but the best was paralyzing. Why? The results are so bad that I doubt I can possibly invest in anyContinue reading “Paralyzing”

Last year I mythically “bought” 20 horses from the Ocala sale for about $1,041,000. My guess was those horses would earn $500,000 in purses over the next year. Let’s see how that worked out. I was a little low. Through May 10th the group has earned $898,000 in purses. West Point and Eclipse also paidContinue reading “Purse Money Analysis”

This is my list of yearling selections that will compete with the two year olds in training of the previous post. 11 of the 40 have not been named so far Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. IContinue reading “Yearlings – Now 2 Year Olds”

The two year old in training sale season can be a little confusing. March Ocala sale – for the most precocious Gulfstream sale – a true select sale for 100 expensive horses Texas sales – a strange collection of cheaper horses Ocala April – the big sale with a wide selection Timonium – kind of.Continue reading “Final List of 2 Year Olds In Training”

In fact I was so impressed with Myracehorse.com’s (MRC) yearling deal, I decided to make a small investment in a single horse. I really liked a Dialed In colt they bought at the March Ocala sale. The dam, Wonder Upon a Star, is by stamina influence Street Cry, and the second dam has produced twoContinue reading “Small Investment”

You have to impressed with what Myracehorse.com has accomplished with their package of 14 yearlings. For just $50 I have received a nice bunch of e-mails and videos about these horses. Better yet almost all of them have made progress toward racing at 2 (one horse was killed in a freak training accident). A MoContinue reading “Impressive”

This is a list of 2 year old in training horses that I could have purchased: Mr Speaker – f – (Little Red Feather, $195,000, named Oakhurst already) – This one almost got me to invest, but I choked. I wish the price had been $100,000. There were shares available for a few days, butContinue reading “Partnerships I Could Have Purchased”

I have always wanted to focus on one maiden race and see what happens to the runners. The race is a 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Belmont two races before the Peter Pan. The race features many beautifully bred fillies. Here is the lineup: Tetella, is a Brad Cox firster by More ThanContinue reading “An Interesting Race”

You have to appreciate the irony. The Kentucky Derby winner could not be any less “well bred”. Medina Spirit sold for $1,000 at a yearling sale. His sire (Protonico) is almost completely unknown, and MS is the first foal out of an unraced mare. The Kentucky Oaks winner could not be any more well bred.Continue reading “Derby and Oaks”

I guess I need 5 horses to go with Brooklyn Strong: Known Agenda is my favorite of the real contenders. Son’s of Curlin get better with age, and the dam was a plodding British bred horse. Highly Motivated has been on my radar since he set a track record beating my Quick Tempo on Breeder’sContinue reading “Betting the Derby”

Quixote Racing Stable’s imaginary horse stable is going to the Kentucky Derby with Brooklyn Strong. One reason to write this blog almost daily is that very few would believe this story if it were not written down in real time. Last year I wrote down 20 horses from the June Ocala sale, and gave eachContinue reading “Going To the Kentucky Derby”

I need to do a better job of keeping track of the big filly prep races. Most of my good imaginary horses have been colts, so I slipped in my coverage of the filly preps. The Kentucky Oaks this year is a race for royalty. All the good horses are either expensive yearlings, or home-bredsContinue reading “Kentucky Oaks”

Just a quick update on my real horses: Quick Tempo is back galloping at the track after December knee surgery. We could start actual works in few weeks Blonde on Tap is recovering from surgery in March and is still a month away from going back to the track. Tonalistic needs a couple more gateContinue reading “Real World Horses”

Little Red Feather did buy my favorite horse in this sale for $195,000. That is a big price tag for a $5,000 sire. Mr Speaker has producer one decent runner in Speech, but not much else. The mare is a nice small stakes winner by Dynaformer, and the 2nd dam was a solid $500,000 winner.Continue reading “Maybe ???”

The Ocala sale came to an end with prices back to just about 2019 levels. The median price was about $50,000. The sale is a nice mix of premium price horses and bargains. There is something for everyone. The buyback rate was low and there were fewer “mysterious withdrawals.” (horses that work, but do notContinue reading “Ocala Conclusion”

West Point has called my bluff. On day 2 they selected my 14th favorite horse in the Ocala sale. I was not very excited by the first few horses WP chose, but that ended when they chose: #346 – f – Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok – 10.1 work, A++ nick, 4/16 foal, $140,000Continue reading “West Point Picks a Winner”

On day 1, West Point, Eclipse, MyRacehorse.com, and Ironhorse bought sprint/precocious oriented horses that I have little interest in. It will be interesting to see if any of these horses ever wins a two turn race. Dare to Dream bought a reasonable Tapizar for $45,000, from a Tiznow mare with some stamina credentials. On dayContinue reading “Ocala April – Partnerships”

This post will accumulate a group of horses from this sale. Day 1 turned from disappointment to excitement when Double O Racing worked out a private sale to purchase #88 for $85,000. At first it was announced as RNA for for $98,000, but about 2 hours later the private sale was recorded for $85,000. IContinue reading “Ocala April – Final List”

What if I really was going to buy hip #88 today? This is a nice son of Air Force Blue. AFB was a freshmen sire last year and his average colt sold for $90,000 (fillies were $50,000) at the 2 year old sales. But when no star offspring showed up last year the bloom cameContinue reading “What If?”

To further confuse the potential buyer, there are now another 500+ two year olds to evaluate in the catalog for the Fasig-Tipton sale in May. You cannot bid on a horse in Ocala without at least considering what you might be missing at Timonium. This sale might be considered more of a select sale. ItContinue reading “It Get’s More Complicated”

If I were looking to buy one horse for $75,000 or less what would ! actually do? I guess I would wait to try any buy #882 for less than $50,000 and maybe stretch to $75,000 if prices were similar to Ocala March. I would be very tempted to jump at #88 the Air ForceContinue reading “What Would I Actually Do?”

The pressure is on to replicate last years results. Of the 20 horses I “selected” from the big Ocala sale, several have been quite successful: Get Her Number – Dialed In – fast closing 4th in the Arkansas Derby -$47,000 Dream Shake – Twirling Candy – could still run in the Derby – $75,000 BrooklynContinue reading “Pressure”

There is a reason most of these horses are in a 2 year old in training sale. They do not have very good pedigrees. If they had good pedigrees, some real buyer would have outbid a pinhooker at the yearling sale. There are a lot of horses with unraced mares, sprinter mares, or ugly pedigrees.Continue reading “The Big Reminder”

Let’s go back to the April 2019 Ocala April sale and look at the prices paid: the top 3 horses sold for $1,000,000+ the top 15 horses sold for at least $500,000 the top 50 horses sold for at least $300,000 the top 100 horses sold for at least $200,000 the top 200 horses soldContinue reading “What Can I Expect to Pay at Ocala?”

If I were going to invest in 2 year olds, rather than yearlings, what would I like to see? SIRE This is the most important variable. I would like to a horse from my list of most undervalued sires. Right now that list is Honor Code Point of Entry Twirling Candy Midnight Storm Gormley CairoContinue reading “What Would Be the Perfect Horse?”

These are the partnerships I expect to be active: Dare to Dream West Point Eclipse myracehorse.com Little Red Feather Ironhorse Kenwood Zilla Bourbon Lane Pewter Hibiscus Remember that about half of the partnerships focus on yearling. I do not expect to hear from. Starlight Centennial Donegal Ten Strike Blue Streak Funky Munky It is notContinue reading “Partnerships at Ocala April”

Just for fun let’s do the top 15 horses in the sale with no regard for price. This is top horses to win the Kentucky Derby/Oaks next year. Another way to think about this list is horses that I would at least consider if they were bought by a partnership. I will most likely say,Continue reading “Top 15”

The times were even more difficult to measure at the wind picked up, some gusts were as high as 20 mph. There was only 1 work of 9.4 and 7 works 10.0. The prior day there were 24 works of 10.0. The number of 2f works also stayed low with 19, compared to 33 onContinue reading “Day 4 at Ocala”