Author Archives: Gregg Jahnke

Let’s move Centennial Farms to the top of the partnership list. Since their minimum investment is about $50,000, that spot might be honorary, but it is well deserved. I had a great conversation with Centennial Farms founder Don Little. Centennial moves to the top of my list because of their long-term approach. They have almostContinue reading “To the Top of the List”

This is an update after looking at all 50+ websites. A few move up significantly. Centennial has put together a nice package of four horses. They are expensive, but well worth thinking about. Two little guys that move up are Blue Streak Racing with a recent Point of Entry purchase, and Basset Stables with aContinue reading “Partnerships Updated”

The stats remained about the same, average $24,000, median $13,000, and RNA + withdrawals about 40%. The only partnerships that bought horses were Pewter Stables and Wasabi Ventures. A group called Country Life Farm paid $92,000 for a Lemon Drop Kid I was interested in. It is possible this could become a partnership horse. IfContinue reading “FTOCT – Day 2”

I think that 90% of what I am writing about can be summarized into trying to answer these 5 big questions: Yearlings or 2 Year Olds? I can see the positives and negatives of both strategies. In theory, I like having the control of developing the horses at a slower pace. In practice the lowerContinue reading “5 Big Questions”

You do have to get used to all the abbreviations for the different sales. This was really like day 13 of the Keeneland sale. The average was $24,000 and the median was $15,000. The topper was a $160,000 son of Cupid. The buyback+withdrawal rate was still 40%. I have 10 horses I am interested inContinue reading “FTOCT Day 1”

The good news is that Swiss Skydiver was hip #2997 at Keeneland two years ago. She sold for only $35,000. For bargain hunters like me this is extremely encouraging. You can buy a great horse for less than $50,000 at a Keeneland yearling sale. “Cheap horses can win” is very important point that must beContinue reading “Good News, Bad News”

You might think that selling 5,000+ yearlings in Lexington was enough. Yet somehow today they will sell another 500+ at Timonium. Maybe 50-60% are NY, MD, VA, and PA breds, but there are plenty of Kentucky breds. Why a Kentucky bred would go to this sale is something I do not understand. Maybe some localContinue reading “No Rest For The Wicked”

Now that the yearlings sales are done let’s rank the partnerships one more time. This is my most comprehensive list yet Dare to Dream – got me to the winner’s circle with Quick Tempo, did not buy yearlings West Point – came very close with Connect colt Eclipse – came very close with Air ForceContinue reading “Ranking Partnerships”

Another small partnership to evaluate is Victory Racing Partners. They are located in the unlikely Marietta, Georgia, but seem to have East Coast roots. Victory also is offering part of a California Chrome 2-yr old, and even some older horses. They have existing horses with Pletcher and Asmussen. Victory bought two reasonable horses at theContinue reading “Victory”

Just as I was starting this blog, Barry Irwin of Team Valor was announcing that they were withdrawing from racing in the United States. Mr. Irwin made some comments about drug issues, but also discussed economics. In one interview he said he was changing his business model to buying already successful horses. The implication isContinue reading “Team Valor”

My first claim, Judicial Restraint, ran a poor 3rd even after being dropped to a $16,000 nw2 lifetime by Chad. That is not a good sign. However, on the drop we was claimed in the real world by Linda Rice. Let’s see if she can work her magic. My other two claimers Ames Mister andContinue reading “Claimer Update”

Wesley Ward stretched out a nice Air Force One filly, Guana Cay, in one of the first dirt 1 1/16 races for two year olds. That a good sigh that AFB can route and run on dirt. I guess I will try Max Player at the end of my pick 5. I am no fanContinue reading “Preakness Ideas”

When you find a stock you really like, you look to see which other portfolio managers own that stock. Then you look down the list of the other stocks they own. Professional money managers do this every day to find new ideas. Starting today one of my new racing hero’s is: Travis Swan Murphy HeContinue reading “Tracking Travis”

Very few people want to think about Orb. His yearlings plummeted to an average of $12,000 this year, down from $53,000 just two years ago. Of the 14 in the Keeneland sale, 12 got sold. Most other sires had many more withdrawals, and RNA’s. Nobody want’s to own these. Orb has produced only one gradedContinue reading “Thinking About – Orb”

My new racing hero is the unknown Mark Schwartz. Before this year, as an owner he was 0 for 24, mostly at Penn National. Then at Ocala this spring he bought a Wicked Strong colt for $5,000. He named the horse Brooklyn Strong, and BS won at first asking in Delaware. Yesterday Brooklyn Strong showedContinue reading “Stakes Action”

They had a maiden race at Belmont yesterday with unusual conditions. It was limited to horses that sold for less than $45,000 at there last sale. I saw this condition for the first time last year. This year Eclipse folks mentioned these races when they bought a Mshawish colt for less than $40,000 at aContinue reading “Strange Conditions”

Why even think about Australian sprinters? Because sons of Medaglia d’Oro have the possibility of of stretching out to two turns. I liked the Vancouver’s at the two year old sales, but there were only 5 yearlings sold at Keeneland. I wish I understood the Australian pedigree a little better, but let’s assume it’s ok.Continue reading “Thinking About – Astern (AUS)”

I never really thought about the question – Who is your favorite horse of all time? I am a long shot player that has never made a win bet at less than 5-1 in my entire life. I am cheering for any long shot that beat Baffert, Pletcher, and Brown, but such horses seldom becomeContinue reading “Thinking About – Lemon Drop Kid”

There is one freshman sire that I want think about some more. American Freedom is a son of Pulpit and a grandson of AP Indy. His pedigree is interesting because his dam is by my favorite stamina influence Pleasant Tap. Mom was a solid two turn small stakes runner. The second dam was by PreaknessContinue reading “Thinking About – American Freedom”

Until I wrote that last post I never really thought about the group of sires this way. The Living Superstars There are 9 active sires with stud fees of $100,000 or above There are 34 active sires that are an attempt to “knock-off” the superstars The Deceased Superstars There are 3 recently deceased superstars (APContinue reading “The Structure of Sires”

Pioneerof the Nile- Midnight Storm, Cairo Prince, Classic Empire, American Pharoah Medaglia d’Oro – Mshawish, Violence, Vancouver, Astern Tapit – Tonalist, Frosted, Tapiture, Mohayman, Cupid, Anchor Down, Tapizar ,Constitution Curlin – Connect, Palace Malice, Keen Ice, Exaggerator AP Indy – Honor Code, Bernardini, Flatter, Mineshaft, Congrats, Take Charge Indy Candy Ride – Twirling Candy, GunContinue reading “Thinking About – Fancy Sires”

Let’s do another sire ranking after the sales. Some sires will fall out of my ranking because they just did not have many horses available in the sale (i.e. Shamen Ghost, Vancouver). Other drop out because their collection of mares was not interesting. Some advance in my rankings because they are getting cheaper Midnight StormContinue reading “Sire Rankings – Top 20”

“Value” investors are always attracted to a good car crash, and there none more spectacular than Runhappy. His average yearling price fell from $223,000 to $47,000 and the median from $200,000 to just $41,000. The early racing results have been poor. Of course, the unending hype has not helped matters. Let’s remember that Runhappy didContinue reading “Thinking About – Runhappy”

One real reason to write this blog is to stay organized. I just realized their might be other public partnerships not on the Ownerview.com list. Here are some more that I found: This is just from goggling “horse racing partnerships” Slam Dunk Racing (California) UTCB Stud (a confusing website) Final Furlong Hidden Brook Ed MogerContinue reading “Staying Organized – Part 2”

Now that the sales are over, I need to keep learning. So I will begin to review the results of various sires and eventually come up with even a better sire ranking list. Could Frosted be 2020’s most undervalued sire? Maybe. Last year 74 Frosted yearlings sold for an average of $219,000 and a medianContinue reading “Thinking About – Frosted”

Ironhosre Racing Stable has 10% left in the Connect filly the bought at Keeneland. They are offering 5% for $4,000. Those with sharp pencils can see this is a “no markup” offer. They estimate for a 5% share monthly cost will be $225-$250, that comes to $2,700 – $3,000 annually. I assume they take x%Continue reading “Ironhorse”

Sorry, I just have to do one more list. Maybe I have gotten too carried away with my group of second tier sires, maybe what I really should be doing is going down to third tier sires. In trying to compete with the Donegal and Ten Strike yearling portfolios, I may have gotten away fromContinue reading “The Dirty Dozen”

Let’s try to make some sense of the results now that the yearling sales are complete. General Conclusions: Its all about recent performance Constitution, Into Mischief were the big winners Speed sells – compare Unified and Cupid to Keen Ice There is a lack of turf sires – Kitten’s Joy was a big winner FreshmenContinue reading “Sire Results”

What have I accomplished in the first four months of this blog: I have learned that writing almost every day really helps you think through the critical issues. Even if nobody ever read this blog, I have increased my level of learning dramatically. I have watched both 2 yr-old in training sales and yearling sales,Continue reading “Four Months”

By now I am sure the readers are tired of my endless lists. I want to bring the yearling sales to a conclusion right here. If I eventually decide that yearlings are the best place to invest I face a distinct choice – Invest is a group of yearlings through a partnership like Donegal, TenContinue reading “Focus”

There are two other viable strategies that I considered. The first is my “unicorn” strategy where I try to recreate Union Rags. This strategy requires a very strong 2nd dam to add stamina to an otherwise sprinter/miler pedigree. Go back and look at the pedigree of Union Rags, one of very few horses to winContinue reading “Which Horse Would I Select? – V”

Another viable strategy would be to pick the best available 2nd tier freshmen sires. We were not going to be able to afford Arrogate, Classic Empire, or Gun Runner, so what was left? My favorite was Midnight Storm. He was durable, turf or dirt, and could run 1 1/4 miles. He is a son ofContinue reading “Which Horse Would I Select – IV”

The first four horses I selected were all bred to run 1 1/2 miles, and would probably be 10 lengths back in any race at 1 1/16th miles. I can hear the cry now – “please give me some speed”, please find me a “modern” horse I will not give in and recommend an IntoContinue reading “Please Give Some Speed – III”

I think the previous post was a very useful exercise. Let’s do the same thing, but for dirt horses of either gender. Let’s consider a Maclean’s Music a special situation since he only had one start. If we throw out the $40,000+ sires, and all the freshmen sires, we get the following list: Tonalist PalaceContinue reading “Which Horse Would I Select – II”

Now that I have determined my best strategy, let’s try to apply it to the sales that just occurred. This is realistically the one horse I would have selected if I had decided to take this strategy to the sales. Let’s look at under $50,000 and under $25,000. My initial sire list would be: PointContinue reading “Which Horse Would I Select? – I”

Now that we have actually experienced a yearling sale, let’s try pick the best strategy. If I had this to do all over again and pick just one strategy: I think I would lean toward taking a filly. They might have a little less downside risk because they might have value as a mare. YouContinue reading “Which Strategy Would I Select?”

Before we choose the best strategy to select a yearling, let’s try to list all the different possibilites: Sex: colt filly either is fine By sire: looking for a specific sire looking for a range of sire (maybe 5 or 10) looking at many sires with some exclusions looking at all sires By class number:Continue reading “What Are All The Different Strategies?”

After the Ocala sale I also went back to last year’s Keeneland sale and pick a group of yearling to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike. Let’s see how these more expensive horses are doing: Despite the expensive horses, the results are horrible. This shows the risk in yearling sales. maybe these horses have beenContinue reading “Review Yearlings from 2019”

Let’s review what we bought at Timonium: The results here are not as good. 2 second in MSW, 2 working, 4 named not working, and 1 unnamed. The Twirling Candy’s are taking time to get to the races. Blame – c – Little Sandy by Speightstown – 3/29 – sf 97 – 2w – 10.2Continue reading “Review Timonium”

I “bought”, or really selected, the following 20 horses at the Ocala sale in June I know one is headed to the Breeder’s Cup, let’s check in on the group: 1 grade 1 winner, 1 winner at Delaware, 3 with decent maiden tries, 11 working before first maiden race, 1 named not working, 3 unnamedContinue reading “Review Ocala Spring”

Before the Ocala sale started, but after the workouts, I did the post below. Of the 12 horses selected, 7 sold, 3 were withdrawn, and 2 were RNAed. Of the 7 sold, 1 is a winner, 2 have run solid maiden races, and 2 are working steadily without a race, 1 is named but notContinue reading “Review and Anger”

Get Her Number won the GI American Pharoah at Santa Anita, and is headed to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He put in a commanding performance leaving the $1,000,000 Starlight colt Spielberg in the dust. The pace was solid and Get Her Number just kept going. Best I can tell Eclipse, West Point, Donegal, Starlight, TenContinue reading “Going to the Breeder’s Cup”

The Keeneland sale concluded with the median price down about 21%, from $47,000 to $37,000, and the average fell the same 20% from $125,000 to $100,000. Horses sold fell from 2,974 to 2,481. Without late withdrawals the median and average would have been lower. After one day of the Fasig-Tipton sale a West Point guyContinue reading “For the Record”

As I did the life of Cairo Prince, I realized I had never really thought the life and times of a sire. Consider the table below: imp = inpregnated crop 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 early late early late early late early late early late early late 1st imp born sold race 2nd impContinue reading “Think About It”

There was no good reason to get away from Dialed In as a sire. I admit I got carried away with all the new shiny freshman sires that have never lost a race. I have had good results with Dialed In and should have continued to push this idea. Let’s go back and find theContinue reading “Mulligans”

One reason to write this blog is that many folks might not believe my stories if they were not written down. When I sat down to write my first post on May 31st, I wrote down a list of 7 sires I was interested in. At the top of that list was Dialed In. IContinue reading “Stakes Action”

Let’s rank the smaller partnerships performance at the yearling sales: Ironhorse Racing – These guys bought 3 above average horses, all with good emphasis on stamina. They move right to the top of my list. Half is Enough, won at Monmouth, no races since September, Clararific working at Belmont, working in Tampa Little Red FeatherContinue reading “Smaller Partnerships”

I wrote a post 22 days ago stating that the big yearling sales were really a new beginning. When I started this blog before the June Ocala sale, I was really starting in the middle of the season. With the two big yearling sales nearly concluded, what have I learned? First, I am very happyContinue reading “The End of the New Beginning”

I know the Keeneland sale is exciting, but let’s not forget my mythical band of lowly claimers. Royal Suspect – an Animal Kingdom turf horse that won the maiden claimer I took him out of for $40,000. Where will Bruce Levine spot him next. No works in the 22 days since the race. Became bottomContinue reading “My Claimers”

I really should be an investor in West Point’s son of Connect. A 5% share would cost $17,600. West Point bought this horse at Fasig-Tipton for $120,000, the most expensive Connect at that sale. Connect was not really a sire I was focused on, but I should have been. Connect was not a precocious horse.Continue reading “Almost Again”

No not 1960’s pop group, but Funky Munky Stable, fired a bullet at hip #3182 on day 10 of the sale. They bought a nice NY-bred filly by Mineshaft for $30,000. Mineshaft is solid stamina sire that is almost completely forgotten in the swirl of new fancy sires. The dam was an unraced daughter ofContinue reading “The Monkies”

What were the average winnings of a horse bought on day 10 of the say 2017 Keeneland September sale. Somewhere someone has that number, it is not difficult to compute, but it is time consuming. I am sure if it were a positive number it would be reported, but I fear it is not aContinue reading “What Are the Numbers?”

The Keeneland sale is grinding to a conclusion. The median sales price is down to $12,000. There are still a few $100,000+ horses being sold, but not may. A few Cupid’s sold for nice prices, and even a few Midnight Storm’s. The median for day 10 of the sale last year was about $20,000, soContinue reading “Day 9 &10”

Eclipse almost got my money this afternoon. They put out an e-mail with a nice presentation on each of the 7 horses they are offering. The highlight is Aron Wellman (the Eclipse CEO) doing a 3-4 minute “elevator pitch” on each horse. He is a very effective speaker. Mr. Wellman has just the right mixContinue reading “Almost”

MyRacehorse.com sent out an e-mail stating they will soon be sending out offers on the horse they bought at Fasig-Tipton. They said: “These horses will be will be available to invest in as soon as we’ve received approval fron the SEC” I assume they mean the Securities Exchange Commission not the football conference. This isContinue reading “A Small Step Backwards”

Before the Keeneland sale is even over two smaller partnership operations put out some very reasonable offers. I have been very impressed with the claiming offers that Zilla Racing has extended. Now they bought two yearlings and made a nice offer. If you like sprinters (I do not, that is my bias), then the NY-bredContinue reading “Two Reasonable Offers”

What would I do today if were going to invest $50,000, $25,000, $10,000, or $5,000 right now to invest in horses? That is a difficult question that I really do have enough information to answer just yet, but I will try anyway. At this moment I would prefer to wait until next year. I thinkContinue reading “The Practical Question”

Would you rather pay $1,500 or $110,000 for a yearling? The question seems simple, but is actually quite difficult. In fact right now I am certain the answer is I would rather pay $110,000. Why? Let’s remember that it will cost $40,000 to develop either horse so the real price comparison is $41,500 vs $151,000.Continue reading “What’s a Better Price”

The median sales price fell to $25,000 for day 8 and the average was only $40,000. The buyback rate dropped significantly. Many horses were selling for under $5,000. I guess these horses will cost the buyer $20,000 to $40,000 to break and train, so any price is a significant investment. Several of the smaller partnershipsContinue reading “Recap Day 7 & 8”

Both of my Dare to Dream horses ran poorly this week. The both had the lead at 3 furlongs, and faded to last at the end of 5 furlongs. Blonde on Tap failed in her second start of the poly at Arlington. Blinkers did not help, so its back to the drawing board. She worksContinue reading “Real Racing”

The buyback rate started to fall, and the median price was around $50,000. It is hard to believe the sale is only 50% complete. West Point and Eclipse were silent, but some of the smaller guys started to fire bullets at lower priced horses. I had to pay up for my top pick, a sonContinue reading “Day 6 Recap”

The first four portfolio are designed to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike, and somewhat compete with West Point, Eclipse, and Starlight. The idea is to average about $100,000/horse, even though it looks like the big guys are spending more this year. I would rather choose a horse that was bought by a real owner,Continue reading “Final Yearling List”

At the right are my letter grades for each purchase. This is obviously subjective. It is a measure of how likely the purchase is to interest my narrow view. I guess we need to keep track of each partnerships purchases: Donegal : #220 Curlin – Isabella Sings – $350, A+ #364* Uncle M- Runway ReadyContinue reading “Keeping Track and Grading”

Day 5 continued to go slow. Buyback were high and there were once again 25 “no shows”. The median fell to $85,000. I got the two horses i wanted, but I did have to pay $140,000 for the Gormley. At least they showed up and were not RNAed. It was interesting that both Eclipse andContinue reading “Day 5 – Review”

My first unicorn is hip #878 that was purchased by Craig Wheeler for $80,000, a fair multiple of 3.2 times the stud fee of $25,000. The special second dam was Go Donna Go, the mother of superstar Macho Again (winner of the Stephen Foster and Jim Dandy). Go Donna go was by Wild Again whichContinue reading “My First Unicorn”

This is the beginning of strategy #2. The basic concept is to recreate what Phyllis Mills Wyeth did when she bred Union Rags. Union Rags was a unicorn because he had the precocity to win the Saratoga Special and Champagne, but also the stamina to win the Belmont Stakes. Strategy #1 was to breed classicContinue reading “Building Unicorns”

Day 4 was more of the same. Only about half of the 385 cataloged horses got sold. I no longer care if they call them outs or RNA, either way they are frustrating. The median price was down to $135,000, down from $185,000 the previous day. That cannot be good. Of my 4 key horses,Continue reading “Day 4 Recap”

Unicorn is a word that has been heavily overused in the investment world, but it really fits with the sire Union Rags. UR was precocious enough to win the Saratoga Special and the Champagne at 2 years old, but had enough stamina to win the Belmont the next year. He is in some ways aContinue reading “Unicorn Rags”

Blonde on Tap (Tapiture) tries her second race today at Arlington. She drew outside is a big field going 5 furlongs. They add blinkers today. She loses Jose Lopez to a Chris Block firster, so Constantino Roman rides. She should go off at a nice price, she is 12-1 morning line. Quick Tempo (Tapizar) isContinue reading “Back In the Real World”

Four of my top ten horses go tomorrow. With such a high buyback rate it is difficult to predict what I will get. The real question is should I be trying to find horses from more expensive sires that might be overlooked. That strategy failed yesterday, but I feel like I should keep trying. MyContinue reading “Day 4 Strategy”

Day 3 was slow again. 385 horses were cataloged. At 9am, 46 were reported out, but 37 more disappeared during the day. Reported RNA’s were 117. Less than half of the cataloged horse were sold, that cannot be good. Can consignors hope to sell these horses at later yearling sales? Or will there be anContinue reading “Day 3 Summary”

Just for fun let’s throw price out the window and find the 10 horses most likely to win the Derby next year. I will just start with the high priced horses and list the one I like the best, #220 Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya – $350,000 Donegal Partners – Maybe the next KeenContinue reading “10 Horses to Win the Derby”

There are 10 horses in books 4, 5, and 6 that I really want. I would love to pay $100,000, but I will go to $200,000. Maybe I should wait until the bargain rounds, but I want to test these early/middle rounds. Does it make sense to “pay up” for quality? Here is my list:Continue reading “10 Horses I Really Want”

After a dark day, Keeneland starts again with Book 2. With more than 400 horses this is a complete book in one day. It is similar to book 1. There are still mainly expensive stallions. There is only one Maclean’ Music, only one Tonalist, only one Midnight Storm, and no Summer Fronts. The median priceContinue reading “Keeneland – Day 3, Book 2”

Here is an updated list of the offers i an considering and watching: Air Force Blue is most critical (Eclipse) Declaration of War from FT has a little interest (Eclipse) Street Sense from FT has a tiny interest (West Point) Connect from FT has a tiny interest (West Point) Watching carefully what Donegal and TenContinue reading “Staying Organized”

Cumulatively Keeneland sold 209 of 448 cataloged horses. The buyback rate was reported at 39.6%, but with last minute outs it was closer to 45%. The average price got close to last year with some big horses at the end of the day. The Arab investors made a small comeback. Starlight bought 5 more forContinue reading “Scoreboard Day 2”

Buying a group of imaginary horses is a lot fun. Trying figure out how to invest actual money in the real world is complicated. Here is the list of decisions: Should I invest this year, or wait for a stock market correction? Should I wait until I understand the process a little better? Should IContinue reading “Decisions”

Eclipse complicated my life by buying hip #371 for $250,000. I really like this daughter of Air Force Blue out of a Malibu Moon mare. I will have to give this horse serious consideration. Here is what I like: AFB is an “under the radar” sire that I feel in underrated, he is my 7thContinue reading “Complications”

Goldilocks liked her porridge “just right” not too hot and not too cold. I like my yearlings at “just the right price” priced not too high or too low. If a yearling sells for too much, you just have to let it pass and wait for something else. If a yearling sells for too little,Continue reading “Goldilocks”

My attempt to find “the deal of the century” on day 2 ended in frustration. Of the 11 horse I was interested in, 4 sold for more than $350,000, 4 were RNAed, and 2 mysteriously disappeared on the way to the ring. The one horse that fit the profile was hip #342: f – PioneerofContinue reading “Frustration”

I declare the winner of Day 1 of the Keeneland sale to be Jerry Crawford of Donegal. Late in the day he struck paying $350,000 (or 2x the stud fee) for a very nice son Curlin. The dam was a multiple graded winner routing, and the second dam bring long-distance Euro-pedigree. Crawford bought another sonContinue reading “Keen Ice #2 and #3”

Michael Behrens started MyRacehorse.com because he thought the business of owning race horses was unnecessarily opaque. I started writing this blog because I thought the business of owning race horses was unnecessarily opaque. Opaque is a fancy word for “not transparent’. Mr. Behren’s solution was to build a business that could promote horse ownership throughContinue reading “MyRacehorse.com Revisted”

I am not sure how productive this will be, but lets give it a try. This is really a guessing game. There might be exhaustion with so many Curlin’s and War Front’s early. The Into Mischief’s are not that well bred, but will sell big anyway. It is surprising that many of the female familiesContinue reading “Keeneland Day 1 Estimates”

I made 20 imaginary selections out of the Ocala sale in early June. Here are the results so far Get Her Number – won maiden, 4th Del Mar Juvenile Turf Brooklyn Strong – won maiden at Delaware Avisse – 3rd at Del Mar Whatmakesammyrun – 8th at. Saratoga Bode’s Tipsy – 7th at Woodbine 10Continue reading “Ocala Revisted”

One of the reason’s to write this blog is that some folks might not believe the stories if I did not write them down. On June 14th I wrote a post about a horse I called Quixote’s Bargain, when he was given a real name by his real owner it was Brooklyn Strong. The horseContinue reading “Another Winner”

Who are the favorites in the Breeder’ Cup Juvenile races? Is it one of the stakes winners, or will a horse that has only won a maiden race the favorite. Could it still be a horse that has not started yet? This is a crazy year and many trainers are saying their best 2-year oldsContinue reading “Breeder’s Cup Juvenile”

In reality I am more likely to make a significant investment in horses next year. In many ways 2020 is more of a practice round. If I decide to buy a whole horse rather than a partnership, it might even be two years before I jump in. I am happy with the 4 small partnershipsContinue reading “This Year or Next?”

The Dare to Dream guys decided not to enter Quick Tempo in the stakes race at Kentucky Downs that will be held today. Looking at the PP’s I think we would have been 4th choice behind two Wesley Ward killers, and a solid Assmusen horse. If one of the others sneaks in and wins, IContinue reading “Back In the Real World”

West Point sent out an e-mail offer on 7 horses about 24 hours after the sale ended. I am not sure if all 7 are still available, only 3 were shown as “x % remaining”. West Point does send out a text minutes after a purchase. This gives existing partners an advantage because they haveContinue reading “West Point Offer”

Eclipse only bought one horse at the sale, but it was an interesting one. The horse has many of the characteristics I am looking for. The only problem is timing. I would hate to jump at this offer before the Keeneland sale even occurs. What if some group buys a Midnight Storm or Gormley thatContinue reading “Eclipse Offer”

It is often more important to know what you don’t know. In a summary post last week I estimated that I had already learned 20% of what I needed to know to buy a successful horse. The first 20% I have learned comes from watching the 2-year old in trainings sales and thinking about valuation,Continue reading “What Don’t I Know”

I like to keep lists. This list keeps track of when real serious racing people agree with some of my more outrageous opinions. Elliot Walden (the top operating guy at Winsar) did an interview with TDN discussing the success of the their horses in the recent Kentucky Oaks. When asked later how the Fasig-Tipton saleContinue reading “Crazy ?? Maybe Not – Part 2”

Anyone who has ever played fantasy baseball or football knows the value of sleepers. A sleeper is a selection that the rest of your competitors might not fully appreciate. The yearling sales are very much like a fantasy baseball draft, except for the fact that you actually have to feed the “players” you select. SteveContinue reading “Sleepers”

The first few days of the Keeneland sale will be fun to watch. Last year the median price was about $350,000 for the first 3 days. Medium priced sires like Twirling Candy do not even have a single hip until day 4. Just for fun let’s think about what horses we might “steal” for “only’Continue reading “Keeneland Day 1 & 2”

Day 2 was very much like day 1 of the Fasig-Tipton sale. Of the 7 horses I was interested in 3 were RNAed, and two were no shows. Once again if had walked in with $50,000 I would have been very happy to buy Hip #373 a Point of Entry filly out of a solidContinue reading “Slightly Out of Control”

If I had walked into Day 1 of the Fasig-Tipton sale with a real $50,000 budget, I would have been thrilled to walk out with Hip #185. I love the Midnight Storm story. I love the pedigree I get from Ghostzapper and Hansel on the dam side. I know the May 31 birthday will makeContinue reading “Day 1 Rethought”

A little honesty made me feel much better about day one of the sale. In a TDN article an agent admitted that the buyback rate in the NY-bred part of the sale (which was over 50%), can be attributed to the breeders having more opportunities to race these horses and reap all the generous benefitsContinue reading “A Little Honesty”

West Point was nice enough to invite prospective clients to a conference call where they discussed their plans and process. The highlights were: We buy athletes, pedigree just tells us what we have to pay. At least they are honest about it, but this suggests the best buys are horses with little pedigree. Access toContinue reading “West Point”

I was disappointed in the first day of yearling sales. Once again two of my top five horse just never showed up. They were not listed as outs, but they never appeared in the ring. This is a very frustrating issue that I need to understand. I fear that the consigners are not playing fair.Continue reading “Not Thrilled”

I will add to these lists as the sales progress, both Fasig-Tipton (FT) and Keeneland (KE) Ten colts to win the Kentucky Derby: Gormley by Soul of Fashion – Perfect Soul – 115 – SGV – FT Maclean’s Music by Dubai Moon – Malibu Moon – $70 – Chalk – FT Practical Joke – BeContinue reading “The Yearling List”

I am writing a chronicle of my quest to buy a successful race horse. This quest needed a name so I christened it “Quixote Racing Stable”. Don Quixote was a fictional character whose idealism was “defeated and rendered useless by common reality”. There is a significant chance that any horse racing story will end inContinue reading “The Story”

Now I understand how some of these yearlings sell for $1,000,000 or more. Two prospective buyers “fall in love” with a particular horse and just keep bidding. I have fallen in love with hip #10 at the Fasig-Tipton sale. The filly is by Gormley out of a stakes winning Lord at War mare. I willContinue reading “I’ll Pay Any Price”

All you can do is try to find another piece to the puzzle every day. Today I got an excellent e-mail from the guys at Kenwood Racing. I would highly suggest getting on their mailing list. They have also had had great racing success at Monmouth. The e-mail highlighted a website called pastthewire.com There areContinue reading “Another Puzzle Piece”

Some of the best handicapping books written years ago were by Mark Cramer. He stressed the need for creativity. One of his best books was Kinkier Handicapping. One chapter discussed building a portfolio of “kinky trainers” that can win with unusual horses the public might not understand. I look for young trainers that the publicContinue reading “Kinky Trainers”

My next 5 top rated sires are: Tonalist Air Force Blue Blame Gormley Noble Mission Why do I like Tonalist so much Tonalist is my favorite of the Belmont winning “plodders”. The stud fee is only $15,000 The female family is by Pleasant Colony, my favorite distance influence Tonalist ran a 100+ Beyer in theContinue reading “The Next Five”

How can any semi-sane person study the horse breeding/racing business for 100 days and conclude that their 5 favorites sires are: Midnight Storm Point of Entry Twirling Candy Maclean’s Music Summer Front Shouldn’t any reasonable list look something like: Tapit American Pharoah Into Mischief (the sire of Audible) Not This Time (the top juvenile sireContinue reading “Crazy, Arrogant Bastard”

This is my ranking of the sires that will generate the best “rates of return” over the next few years. It is a ranking of the best sires to invest in. It combines what I expect to pay for a yearling, and how I expect the offspring to perform. Obviously this list is extremely subjective,Continue reading “My Sire Rankings”

I was already planning on building a “What if I am Wrong” portfolio of yearlings. The main speed/precocity sires were going to be Unified and Practical Joke. Given the results of the Derby and Oaks lets even add three more. Munnings is the other speed/precocity sire mentioned in the Cox/Crow interview. He is a sonContinue reading “Reaction/Over Reaction?”

The results are in, and I lost badly. In the battle between the “modern” speed/precocity horse and the stamina oriented “plodder” the results of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks speak loudly The Derby was won by an Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greely mare. I could not imagine a horse with a more “7Continue reading “The Results Are In…”

Just for the record I will try to get Honor AP home in the Kentucky Derby. I have no great insight other than he should like the distance. I will shoot for exacta with the closers. I will be cheering for Tiz the Law, but not betting on him.

They sold 150 yearlings at Woodbine yesterday. Most were Ontario breds. I would have expected the $120,000 MSW purses at Woodbine to have attracted more attention. The median price was only $15,000. Maybe a tiny sign of a weak market? This sale would have completely escaped my attention if I had not been making aContinue reading “Canada, We Stand on Guard For Thee”

I will take some shots to beat Gamine and Swiss Skydiver in today’s Oaks. I think you will be getting the right price. If those to hook up and go a little too fast, maybe the stamina fillies can sneak past them. Gamine is by the hated Into Mischief, out of a sprint oriented KawfainContinue reading “The Oaks”

There are lots of different ways to get the Kentucky Derby. TDN had an excellent article summarizing all you need to know from an ownership perspective: Tiz the Law – FT yearling $110,000 – freshman sire/stamina stakes dam Honor AP – FT yearling $850,000 – freshman sire/stamina stakes dam King Guillermo – OBS 2-yr oldContinue reading “The Derby”

The good folks at West Point won the 6th race at Churchill today with a horse that really made me stop and think. The race was a scheduled as a turf race for 2-year olds, but it was taken off the turf and run at 1 mile on the dirt. The pace was much tooContinue reading “A Horse To Think About”

Every few weeks I ask myself why i am writing this blog. Right now there are very few readers. One conclusion that I came to is that I really enjoy learning new things. Most people enjoy doing things. They enjoying doing things with family and other people. I enjoy learning new things. When I wasContinue reading “Learning”

Today I mythically claimed Royal Suspect out of the 4th race at Saratoga. This NY-bred gelded son of Animal Kingdom should be able to sprint or route, on dirt or turf. His best Beyer was 62 going a mile at Santa Anita. The horse was a $40,000 purchase at last year’s Timonium sale. This claimContinue reading “Mythical Claim”

The story really should begin here, with the big yearling sales in Kentucky. This is where the “season” really begins. The Ocala and Timonium training sales are important, but every horse is those sales might deserve the label of “rushed too soon”. If you buy a yearling, you can develop it at your own pace.Continue reading “A New Beginning”

There is a certain amount of irony that a small part owner of a 2-year old preparing to run in a $500,000 stakes race, is still complaining about too much emphasis on precocity in selecting young horses. There is plenty that can be learned about breeding by reading the sire profiles on the Lane’s EndContinue reading “Competence vs. Creativity”

It his hard for me to judge the quality comparison between Fasig-Tipton and the Keeneland sale. It is an important issue, but I will just have to learn. Right now I am going to try for conservative value estimates, and hope that many will wait for the greater selection at Keeneland. The median last yearContinue reading “Fasig-Tipton Ideas”

For the Fasig-Tipton sale September 9-10th: #157 – Air Force Blue by a Sadler’s Wells mare. May 8th foal. A nick. $30,000? #127 – Midnight Storm by Harlen’s Holiday mare (Starlight purchase) $30,000 ? #10 – Gormley by graded stakes Lord at War mare. March 16th foal, $50,000 ? #131 – Maclean’s Music by MalibuContinue reading “NY-bred Ideas”

It is time to go back to the subject of valuation. What is a yearling worth? Compared to the 2-year old sales, we have one less piece of information since there are obviously no workout times. We start with the subject of New York breds because the first half of the first day at theContinue reading “Back To Valuation”

What have I accomplished in the first 90 days of this blog? I have made over 150 blog posts to chronicle my journey toward buying a successful race horse. I have learned about the operation of the training sales in Ocala and Timonium, and selected a group of horses to follow from each sale. IContinue reading “First 90 Days”

My 2% owned horse, Quick Tempo, will be entered in a $500,000 race at Kentucky Downs on September 12th. The problem winning early with a 2-year old is there no logical next race. You could wait two months for a N1x allowance race to fill. If your horse is doing well, some type of smallContinue reading “A Little Excitement”

When I was 10 years old I was planning to escape to Canada to avoid the Vietnam draft. I watched the evening news more than most 10 year olds. Maybe Canada would have been a good plan after all, it sure is a great place to run 2-year olds. The purses are incredible. Maiden racesContinue reading “Oh Canada”

I am sure that studying all this breeding information has improved my handicapping. Yesterday in the Empire 6, I took a stand against the Runhappy first time starter and played instead an Upstart first time starter. I knew from watching the trainings sales that the Upstart’s had been running, and so far the Runhappy’s haveContinue reading “Handicapping”

This group has put out a very nice yearling offering. Their plan is to buy 4 horses at the yearling sale, pinhook one, and race the other three. They did this successfully last year and bought a Hit It a Bomb colt for $100,000 and flipped it for $200,000 at an Ocala sale. LRF’s minimumContinue reading “Little Red Feather”

Trying to buy a successful horse requires some effort every racing day. It is difficult to keep up once every track is running two 2-year old races every day. i know I quickly lose focus on what is happening in California. Here is what I know I must do every day. Read the Thoroughbred DailyContinue reading “Every Day”

It is still my belief that breeding stamina oriented sires to stamina oriented mares is the best way to buy a successful race horse. I think this strategy works because it is the opposite of what pinhookers and “win early” owners are looking for. Stamina/stamina horses are consistently sold at bargain prices because 90% ofContinue reading “If I Am Wrong”

Two weeks ago I was offered a loose 2.5% interest in Donegal’s partnership. Their first starter ran ok last week, but today Abarta won a maiden turf race at Ellis. He was taken well back and charged home. He is a good looking, long, son of Into Mischief. He might be be a real niceContinue reading “Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda”

These are the new sires at the yearling sale in my order of interest: Midnight Storm – the other new son of Pioneerof the Nile, turf or dirt, ran 28 times for Little Red Feather, speed, soundness, and stamina, all for only $10,000, my favorite by a wide margin Keen Ice – a true plodder,Continue reading “Freshman Sires”

The big yearling sales are less than two weeks aways. I have been looking through the catalogs, but the sheer number of horses is overwhelming. For example there are 49 Macleans’s Music at the Keeneland sale, plus 3 more at Fasig-Tipton. The Keeneland sale is further complicated because there are 6 “books” of declining quality.Continue reading “Yearling Sales Are Coming Fast”

My first imaginary claim won an $30,000 maiden claiming race taken off the turf race at Saratoga yesterday. The Tonalist colt named Judicial Restraint looks like he might like the mud. He earned an Equibase fig of 91. The race was 1 1/8 mails, and Chad commented after the race “the colt can run allContinue reading “Claiming Game”

Should anyone in the right mind own race horses? I guess you should try to answer that question, before you set out on a quest to buy one. There are two issues worth considering. At a recent Jockey Club conference it was strongly implied that there were more indictments coming in the Navarro/Servis mess, butContinue reading “Should Anyone Own Race Horses?”

We are about two weeks until the first big yearling sale. Let’s review where all the different partnerships stand. Right now it seems that only three groups are offering yearling partnerships “in the blind”. That means you invest before the horses are chosen. Little Red Feather has an innovative approach which seems to combine pinhookingContinue reading “Yearling Partnerships”

I attended my first yearling sale yesterday. It was not at Keeneland or Saratoga, but at the mighty Lone Star. It was difficult to tell exactly what I was watching. I guess you need to fill the $10,000 maiden claimers at Remington, Evangline, and Sam Houston with animals that come from somewhere. Maybe an ownerContinue reading “My First Yearling Sale”

Before the yearling sales start, I want to do some profiles of successful horses and examine what they looked like when they were sold as a yearling. i guess there is no better place to start than with Tiz The Law. Jack Knowlton purchased him for $110,000 out of a Fasig-Tipton sale in Saratoga inContinue reading “Yearling Profile: Tiz The Law”

Real Horses: Quick Tempo – winner at Arlington, looking for a spot Blonde on Tap – 8th at Arlington, next MSW at Arlington Tonalistic – recovering from ankle chip, out 90 days Song Saver – resting sore knees, grazing only Imaginary Purchases from Two Year Olds in training sales: Get Her Number by Dialed InContinue reading “Summary”

It is time take another shot shot at the claiming game. My first imaginary claim was a Chad Brown trained son of Tonalist. This horse has not run since 6/12, so maybe there was a reason he was in for $40,000 or maybe Chad will not drop him again. We will see. I have beenContinue reading “Back To the Claiming Game”

The real question is where do you run QT next? It seems unlikely that Arlington will have enough horses to card a non-winner of 1x before the end of its meet on September 30th. The only real option is to find a small stakes race somewhere. The most obvious answer is a $100,000 race atContinue reading “Where Next?”

Blonde on Tap ran a badly beaten 8th the next day at Arlington. She dueled for the lead to the top of the stretch with the eventual winner , but then collapsed and had many closers scurry by her. It is good to know she has that kind of gate speed, and it possible thatContinue reading “A Loss”

Quick Tempo won his first race going 4 1/2 furlongs at Arlington on 8/20. He was quick to the lead, dueled with the $400,000 Daredevil colt, and cruised home with only a tap on the shoulder. The field had been scratched down to only 5 horses. The immediate reaction way joy and excitement over suchContinue reading “A Win and a Controversy”

In four days there will be a small yearling sale right in my backyard at Lone Star Park. There will be 151 yearlings sold, about 110 are Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana breds, but another 40 are Kentucky breds. I am not sure what to make of the quality of this group. For at least theContinue reading “Lone Star Sale”

About two months ago I built a portfolio of ten bargain yearlings from the 2019 Keeneland sale. Each was under $50,000, and the average was about $30,000. The median price at the sale was about $45,000. The idea was two compete with Ten Strike and Donegal by choosing “cheaper” horses, but trying to earn aContinue reading “Bargain Yearlings Again”

Unfortunately my colt named Tonalistic was injured in a stall accident. The accident occurred on a stormy night when he got spooked by the thunder and lightning. He chipped his right rear fetlock (roughly his ankle) and required surgery to remove the chip. The prognosis is good, but he will be out about 90 days.Continue reading “My First X-Ray”

What is a successful race horse? Let’s try to define that a little better. One owner wrote an interesting letter to the TDN. He stated that in the US, total overall purses are about $1 billion dollars a year, and he estimated that the total costs of training all thoroughbred horses was about $2 billionContinue reading “Buying a Successful Race Horse”

Both of my My Dare to Dream horses have their first race in the next few days. In all honesty the general feeling of happy anticipation is being replaced by a feeling of worry and concern. Both horses have progressed very smoothly since the Ocala sale in June. Let’s review how I got here: IContinue reading “Real World Racing”

It can be difficult to keep track of all the open offers when you are watching about 30 active partnership groups. I had a very nice conversation with Jerry Crawford the founder of Donegal Racing. They have put together a very nice group of 12 horses, and still have available units. The units are availableContinue reading “Open Offers”

There is also good news from the real world. Both Dare to Dream horses seem to have races at Arlington, but now we will see if the crazy racing situation in Illinois allows the races to fill. Quick Tempo is the Tapizar colt with the quick work at June Ocala. We will see today ifContinue reading “The Real World”

Get Her Number won his race at Del Mar. It was not a real fast time, but it was still a win. That makes my record for horses “mythically” selected from the training sales a perfect 1 for 1. I am seriously considering retiring while still undefeated. Let’s see if I receive my share ofContinue reading “Undefeated”

It has been about 75 days since my first post. The first horse I “mythically” selected from the Ocala sale is entered today at Del Mar. He is one of 8 two year olds entered in the third race at Del Mar today. They will go 5f on the turf. He is owned by GaryContinue reading “The First Race”