100 Horses

Posted byGregg JahnkePosted inUncategorized

Here is my new crazy idea. The Keeneland sale is less than a month away. I am planning to attend. My goal is to leave the sale with 100 horses to follow, in these categories (20 in each):

  1. Over $200,000 – just for fun with no budget
  2. $120,000 to $200,000 – the horses I really like, but go over the budget
  3. $80,000 to $120,000 – the high end of what I would like to pay
  4. $40,000 to $80,000 – the “sweet spot”
  5. under $40,000 – the bargains

The goal is to earn the highest Return on Investment (ROI).

The overall strategy will be the same. The basic idea is to concentrate on horses the pinhookers have little interest in.

  1. Out of favor stamina oriented sires
  2. Stamina oriented dams and extended female families
  3. mares that did not win stakes races, or have stakes winning offspring
  4. mares with less than 7 offspring
  5. Above average nick ratings and April-June foal dates when possible

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How should I go about picking my 20 expensive horse? These horses will come fron the first 4 sessions (also called the the first 2 “books”. My first idea is to go with these sires:

  1. Quality Road – my favorite expensive sire
  2. Quality Road
  3. American Pharoah – really becoming a turf sire
  4. American Pharoah
  5. Street Sense – looking for the next Maxfield
  6. Street Sense –
  7. Medaglia d’Oro – 2nd favorite expensive sire
  8. Liam’s Map
  9. Union Rags
  10. Kitten’s Joy
  11. Mendelssohn – favorite 2nd year sire
  12. City of Light – a cheaper Quality Road
  13. Vino Rosso – my favorite 1st year sire
  14. Catholic Boy –
  15. Omaha Beach – maybe a good idea
  16. Gun Runner – maybe
  17. Audible – maybe
  18. Bolt d’ Oro – a little overvalued
  19. Mitole – maybe
  20. Catalina Cruiser – maybe

Expensive sires that will not be in my top 20:

  1. Into Mischief – still to sprinty
  2. Tapit – not bad, but I like QR better
  3. Curlin – I like QR a little better
  4. War Front – too expensive
  5. Justify – maybe too harsh
  6. Uncle Mo – Mo Donegal surprised me
  7. Candy Ride – fading
  8. Constitution – a cheaper Tapit
  9. Nyquist – on the fence
  10. Practical Joke – too sprinty
  11. Speightstown – too sprinty
  12. Distorted Humor – confusing
  13. Not This Time – too expensive
  14. Munnings – still little stamina
  15. Twirling Candy – borderline
  16. More Than Ready – maybe on turf
  17. Hard Spun -borderline
  18. Good Magic – did not like what I saw
  19. Arrogate – passes away
  20. MacLean’s Music- sprinty
  21. Frosted – just poor

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From sessions 1-4, book 1 and 2

Session 1 – #1 -#181 median 2021 – $310,000

Session 2 – #191 – #375. median 2021 – $375,000

Session 3 – #389 – #758 median 2021 – $210,000

Session 4 – #750 – #1097 median 2021 – $200,000

  1. #86 – c – Quality Road – Tin Type Gal by Tapit – A++, 2/13, Denali
  2. #191 – f – Quality Road – Cover Song by Fastnet Rock – A+ nick, 4/22, Stone Farm
  3. #111 – c – American Pharoah – Visage by Galileo – A++ nick, 2/4, Eaton
  4. #142 – f – American Pharoah – A Star is Born by Galileo – A++ nick, 4/17 Lane’s End
  5. #56 – c – Street Sense – Spellbound by Bernardini – A nick, Maxfield, 3/11, Claiborne
  6. #657 – c – Street Sense – Gold Serenade by Medaglia d’Oro – A+ nick, 3/5, Denali
  7. #398 – c – Medaglia d’Oro – Rapid Repair by Arch – A+ nick, 4/4, Claiborne
  8. #126 – f – Liam’s Map – Adream by Bernardini – A++ nick, 4/1, Four Star
  9. x
  10. x
  11. #975 – f – Mendelssohn – Destiny Unbound by Galileo – C nick, 4/10, Indian Creek
  12. #301 – f – City of Light – Keri Belle by Empire Maker – A++., 4/10, Valkyre
  13. #879 – c – Vino Rosso – Wilson’s Creek by Bernardini – A++ nick, 3/7, Warrendale
  14. #153 – c – Catholic Boy – Berncredit by Bernstein – C+ nick, 4/5, Beau Lane
  15. #81 – c – Omaha Beach – Theysken’s Theory by Bernardini – C+ nick, 1/28, Claiborne
  16. #151 – f – Gun Runner – Bella Rafaela by Smart Strike – D nick, 2/16, Four Star
  17. #26 – f – Audible – Safwah by Medaglia d’Oro – B nick 4/21, Eaton
  18. #113 – c – Bolt d’Oro – Wealth Effect by Curlin – B+, 3/6, Taylor Made
  19. #1069 – f – Mitole – Lilacs and Lilies by Bodemeister – F nick, 2/3, Four Star
  20. #480 – c – Catalina Cruiser – Thatcher by Giant’s Causeway – B nick, 2/13, Lane’s End

A few to think about:

  1. #29 – c – Justify by a Galileo mare
  2. #53 – c – Blame by QR mare
  3. #63 – f – Kitten’s Joy by Galileo mare, D nick
  4. #82 – c – Gun Runner by a Vindication mare
  5. #115 – c – Uncle Mo by a Galileo mare
  6. #117 – f – Into Mischief by a Galileo mare

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Session 5 – #1131 – 1546. median 2021 – $125,000

  1. #1327 – c – Omaha Beach – Betsy Draper by Street Sense – B nick, 5/5, Runnymeade
  2. #1160 – f – Omaha Beach – Reach the Stars by Galileo- A nick, 4/25, Hill n Dale
  3. #1384 – f – Liam’s Map – Delightful by Bernardini – A++ nick, 5/12, Gainsway
  4. #1363 – f – Mendelssohn – Cleo by Pioneerof the Nile – A++ nick, 4/22, Pope
  5. #1243 – f – Bolt d’Oro – Thr Rahy Angel by Rahy – A+ nick, 5/14, Lane’s End
  6. #1545 – f – City of Light – On the Trail by Bernardini – A+ nick, 4/15 Denali
  7. #1225 – c – Cairo Prince – Sweet Lady by Scat Daddy – A++ nick, 5/7 Hill n Dale
  8. #1454 – f – Mitole – Ice Women by Street Sense – B nick, 3/28, Taylor
  9. #1388 – c – Vino Rosso – Devious d’Oro by Medaglia d’Oro – C + nick, 2/21, Taylor Made
  10. #1364 – f – Catholic Boy – Closing Statement by Blame – D nick, 2/13, Columbiana
  11. #1421 – c – Catholic Boy – Flagstaff by Dansili – C nick, 3/5, St. George
  12. #1470 – c – Enticed – Kitty Quality by Quality Road – D nick, 3/27, St, Simon

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session 6 – #1547 – #1958 2021 median – $85,000

  1. #1646 – c – Omaha Beach – Taralena by Arch – A, 5/2, Candy
  2. #1558 – f – Oscar Performance – Posy Script by quality Road, B+, 3/17, Mill
  3. #1554 – f – Union Rags – Place des Voges, D, 4/21 Warrendale
  4. #1591 – f – Catholic Boy – Season Ticket by LDK, A++/ 2/27
  5. #1580 – c – Mitole – Sahara Wind by AP Indy – A, 5/23 Warrendale
  6. #1877 – f – Vino Rossa – Kuna by Scat Daddy – A++. 3/10, Vinery
  7. #1593 – f – Vino Rossa – Seeking the Blue by Arch – C, 4/20, Stone
  8. #1806 – c – Blame – Estill by Bernardini – B, 4/28, Stone Farm
  9. #1576 – f – Blame – Romantic Frolic by Vindication – A, 5/3
  10. #1640 – f – Cairo Prince – Sweet Pistol by Smart Strike, C, 5/2, Airdrie

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session 7 – #1959 – #2369. 2021 median – $60,000

  1. #2164 – f – Bee Jersey – Christmas Cove by More Than Ready – ??nick , strong family, 2/14
  2. #2015 – c – Vino Rosso – Snow Dancer by Bernardini – A++ nick, nick of Clairere, 5/3
  3. #2185 – f – Catholic Boy – Cumbria by Distorted Humor – B, 3/18, Runnymeade
  4. #1977 – f – Preservationist – Purr by Bluegrass Cat – C+ nick, sneaky family, 5/2
  5. #1970 – f – Mitole – Pointe Class by Arch – C nick, dam a $250,000 yearling, 2/14
  6. #2296 – f – Vino Rosso – Last Standing by Hard Spun – B+ nick, 5/1
  7. #2301 – f -Catholic Boy – Lemarchos by Lemon Drop Kid, A++ nick, big producing 2nd dam, 1/30
  8. 2311 – f – Dialed In – Lotta Lolly by Smart Strike, A nick, 4/25
  9. #2039 – f – Maximus Mischief. – Taker Home by Vindication, 2/23
  10. #2364 – f – Mendelssohn – Off the Boat by More than Ready – A nick, strong family, 5/5

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session 8 – median 2021 – $45,000

  1. #2429 – f – Blame – Silk Assassin by Bernardini – B nick, great 2nd dam, Ballysax,
  2. #2392 – f – Cairo Prince – Rachel Well by Blame – NR nick, mare won at 1 1/2, Stoneriggs ??, 3/23 foal
  3. #2495 – c – Oscar Performance – Unicity by Dynaformer – B+ nick, nick of Sadler’s Joy, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 4/28 foal
  4. #2513 – f – Oscar Performance – Willathewest by Gone West – A nick, interesting 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 3/14
  5. #2591 – f – Oscar Performance – Dabinett by Blame, B nick, mare won for Chad at 4, strong 2nd dam, Mill Ridge, 2/28, first foal
  6. #2683 – c – Oscar Performance – Journey On by Nureyev, A+ nick, 3×4 to Nureyev, dam of Carmel Crush, KatieRich, 1/29
  7. #2590 – f – Catholic Boy – Cry Hallelujah b Street Cry, B nick, Katierich, 4/4
  8. #2734 – f – Catholic Boy – Marypop by Layman, A++ nick, Mulholland Springs, 4/23, mare ran in Beverly D
  9. #2694 – f – Vino Rosso – Kitten’s Catch by Kitten’s Joy, A+ nick, Warrendale, 2/12
  10. #2579 – f – Summer Front – Complicated by Blame – A nick, strong family, Indian Creek, 2/29
  11. #2538 – c – Unified – Bemus Point by Bernardini – A nick, 2/13
  12. #2607 – c – Accelerate – Dreamy Lady by Giant’s Causeway, A+, 4/28, Burleson
  13. #2466 – f – Karokontie – Summer Sweet by More than Ready, A, 3/12. Stone
  14. #2539 – f – Catalina Cruiser – Bert’s Altarcation – A++, 3/23, Vinery
  15. #2726 – c – Catalina Cruiser – Malibu Mudslide – D, 5/15, Four Star

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Session 9. #2781 – #3185

  1. x
  2. 2
  3. #2784 – f – Collected – Patricia’s Kitten by Kitten’s Joy – B+, 5/10, Garrencasey
  4. x
  5. x
  6. x
  7. x
  8. x
  9. #2965 – Accelerate – Blue Dahlia by Giant’s Causeway, A+, 4/15, Sally Thomas

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Other:

Session 10 – #3184 – #3587

  1. #3402 – c – Lookin at Lucky
  2. #3333 – f – Astern – Ad In by Street Sense – A+, 2/23, St George

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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