Kentucky Derby – 2022

Let’s try to pick the Derby with a focus on breeding:

1. Messier – There is only one horse in the field that has been bred to win this race since birth. The 3rd dam here was a Canadian champion, and a son on Super Derby winner Seeking the Gold. That champion was bred to AP Indy without racing success, but her daughter, was bred to Canadian Triple Crown winner Smart Strike to create Checkered Past. Checkered Past was a decent stakes winner for her breeder Sam-Son Farm. she was bred to Belmont winner Empire Maker to create Messier. Starlight and others paid $470,000 for him at the FT sale (the median Empire Maker was only $70,000). Messier is the ultimate “plodder/plodder”, but he might have enough natural speed to control the race.
2. Mo Donegal – I consider very carefully investing in the Donegal partnership that owns this horse. I am no fan of Uncle Mo’s trying to win at 1 1/4 miles. There is enough stamina in the 2nd dam (she won the Delaware Handicap at 1 1/4 miles) that MD should be OK at the distance. Not sure if I am cheering for or against. Donegal paid only $250,000 on day 3 at Keeneland
3. Zandon – I have been an Upstart fan from the start. This horse is a great example of the “empty mare” theory. Jeff Drown paid $170,000 on DAY 8 of the Keeneland sale (#hip 2686). His mom was unraced, this is her second foal, and the first foal never raced. Grandma was unplaced and produced only one small winner. This had to be a “great physical” to pay $170,000 for such a poorly bred horse. I am not a fan of Creative Causee as a broodmare sire, this could be horse with distance limitations.
4. Tiz the Bomb – This is a horse bred to run a long distance. The dam placed in the American Oaks at 1 1/4 miles on the turf. She is by Tiznow out of a AP Indy mare. The sire is a grandson of Sadler’s Wells. Kenny McPeek paid $330,000 for a horse by a $5,000 sire. Not sure how he will handle the dirt. Maybe??
5. Charge It – 2nd dam was $2,500,000 winner Take Charge Lady, who was then bred with Indian Charlie to crate the mare. Mandy Pope homebred you kind of have to cheer for even though Pletcher trains.
6. Taiba – Only $140,000 as a yearling, but then $1,700,000 at March Ocala. Mare won $700,000 routing at Thistledown. Very confusing. Originally named Needmore Guns. Only the second foal of the mare
7. Summer is Tomorrow – I have always been a Summer Front fan, and the 3rd dam was stakes winner router for Dinny Phipps. ST was a $14,000 RNA as a yearling at Keeneland, but then sold for for $170,000 as a 2 yr old in France.
8. Classic Causeway – Homebred and one one the last sons of the great Giant’s Causeway. Mom was by Thunder Gulch, and grandma won 20 races at Mountaineer.
9. Pioneer of Medina – Was a $485,000 RNA as a yearling. Always fear the Arabs at this distance. Mare was 2nd in the Black Eyed Susan. Very sneaky.
10. Rich Strike – Do you believe in miracles? A $30,000 claim by Eric Reed by the ultra plodder Keen Ice. The mare is one of the best Manitoba breds of all time. Can you say Mine That Bird?
11. White Abbario – Race Day is a son of Tapit, and the mare is by Into Mischief. Sold for $8,000 as a yearling, and $40,000 as a two year old.
12. Barber Road – Ran for a $30,000 tag as a maiden, two others claimed out of that race. Female family very sprinty.
13. Epicenter – Not really a fan of Not This Time at the distance. Homebred out of a nice stakes winning Candy Ride mare
14. Simplification – Also a son of Not This Time. Mare bought in foal for only $50,000. Mare ran a 90 equibase in allowance races, and was by Candy Ride
15. Cyberknife – A $400,000 Gun Runner from a Canterbury Park stakes mare by Flower Alley.
16. Tawney Port – a $430,000 yearling, mom was a stakes horse from Prairie Meadows
17. Smile Happy – Not a fan of Runhappy at the distance, but the mare is by the great Pleasant Tap. Sold for $185,000 at FT Select.
18. Zozos – Homebred, – not a fan of Munnings or broodmare sire Forestry.
19. Crown Pride – Not sure what to make of the Japanese pedigree. Sire from a Seattle Slew mare. 3rd dam from an Irish sire. Mystery
20. Happy Jack – Calumet could not even sell this son of unpopular Oxbow. Out of a decent Tapit mare. 2nd dam by Alysheba.

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Wow.

Rich Strike was my 10th choice. I doubt very many had him picked higher. I was looking for a Keen Ice for the last two year. The KI’s at the sales were all bred to precocious speed type mares. I never really found one I liked.

I should have been looking at the $30,000 maiden claimers at Churchill. Calumet was not sure what they had, and neither did Joe Sharp. The Smart Strike mare can often at stamina.

I wish I had the patience to look at the claiming races, but I have failed at that effort.