Kentucky Oaks – 2022

There is a very important conclusion from this exercise. Half the field for this $1,250,000 race comes from a very humble, less than $75,000, background. The other half are fairly expensive, well bred, fillies. You can always dream. Half the field sold at the Keeneland sale

Let’s look the Oaks from a breeding perspective, and make some handicapping calls:

Here is my predicted order of finish:

1. Kathleen O – Let’s cheer for the under-appreciated $10,000 Airdrie sire Upstart to maybe win the Oaks and Derby (Zandon). I love the mare by Blame that was bought by stamina oriented buyer Marc Keller for $200,000, and trained by the low profile Bobby Ribaudo. It is very unusual for Shug to buy a horse an Ocala sale, so let’s call this horse a unicorn, and hope she is a freak. Sold for only $8,000 as a weanling, and then went for $245,000 after working 21.1 at Ocala. I like the fact she did not debut until November. The mare’s first two foals were not runners. Consigned by Niall Brennan, one of my favorites.
2. Nest – She was a $350,000 Eclipse purchase out of book 3 at Keeneland. Curlin out of a low profile AP Indy mare, what could be better? I guess I could have bought part of this one if I had been willing to pay Eclipse’s markup. Consignered by low profile Ashview Farm
3. Hidden Connection – Let’s cheer for a $40,000 Keeneland yearling hip #2104. I am a Connect fan, and what could be more plodding than an unplaced Awesome Again mare. Consigner was volume oriented Machmer Hall. This could be my dream horse.
4. Nostalgic – Never leave out the Godolphin homebreds. Medaglia d’Oro out of a routing Tapit mare should be a solid horse
5. Shahama – She sold 15 minutes before Kathleen O ant the Ocala sale for $425,000. I am no Munnings fan, but the mare is the mom of Looking at Lucky. Should respect.
6. Venti Valentine – Bred by a small partnership, Final Furlong, to a very low profile stallion who stands for $5,000 at Crestwood Farm. Firing Line was the strange horse that Simon Callahan won the Sunland Derby with and then was a close second to American Pharoah at the Derby. The mare was a claimer, but she was by Medaglia d’Oro.
7. Turnerloose – Hip #1787 at Keeneland. The daughter of Nyquist only cost $50,000 from stamina oriented consigner Woodford. Unraced mare by the great AP Indy. Almost a model horse.
8. Candy Raid – Hip #2224 sold for only $35,000 at Keeneland to a small Texas partnership called Don’t Tell My Wife. Never count out the semi-crazy Keith Desormeaux. Consigned by giant sized Denali.
9. Desert Dawn – Always fear the Arizona bred. I have been a small fan of sire Cupid. Solid mare ran slowly at Finger Lakes. Was a $32,000 RNA as a yearling.
10. Secret Oath – Not a fan of sire Arrogate, but the mare was a stakes winning router by Baffert’s favorite broodmare sire Quiet American
11. Echo Zulu – Kind of a cheap $300,000 Gun Runner from book one at Keeneland. Mare produced 7 winners. Almost TGTBT. Pass
12. Cocktail Moments – Sold for $190,000 as a Keeneland yearling and $240,000 at the March Ocala sale. A little TGTBT for a daughter of Uncle Mo. Always fear Kenny McPeek. Consigned by Eddie Woods
13. Goddess of Fire – Homebred from a decent stakes mare using the undervalued sire Mineshaft.
14. Yuugirl – Homebred daughter of a Shackleford, but there is another Medaglia d’Oro mare that ran slowly at Delaware