Ocala April – Rethought

After attending the Ocala sale, it is time to deconstruct what I just witnessed:

1. I am even more convinced that what I really want to buy is yearlings. What I saw here were plenty of larger, sprint oriented, horses. After the 2020 show, a prominent buyer called Ocala “a quarter horse show”. I certainly agree, but still there are some interesting horses.
2. However, even if only 50 of 1200 horses are interesting, it is still important to attend. It is particularly important to watch horses develop from September to April. So the complex conclusion is — After attending I am much less likely to buy a 2 year old in training, but it is much more likely that I will attend these sales in the future.
3. One well respected consigner gave a very important piece of advice : “know your consigner”. I think this is very important. I will have to spend more time getting to know more about all the “players” in this industry.
4. I know my bias is toward more “slightly built” horses. What I consider “sleek or racy” others consider as too small to withstand training. This will be a continuing battle. When well known consigner Nick de Meric called the $650,000 Bolt d’Oro filly that he sold “a plain Jane looking filly”, it made me realize most buyers must want “monsters” in the mold of Jackie’s Warrior. The push to find horses that will “win at Saratoga or Del Mar” is what the industry wants.
5. Horse’s are expensive. Overall the median price horse of $65,000 is only up from $60,000 in pre-pandemic 2019, but way up from the uncertainty of 2020 and 2021. When inexpensive sire McCracken sells a horse with an average 10.1 work for $170,000 you know prices are pretty hot. Median prices can be misleading because maybe 20% of horses have fairly significant vet issues. To me it felt like average “clean” horses were selling for about $100,000. You can see the quality differences between the $250,000 horse and the $100,000 horse. If you are shopping on a budget you have to be very careful not to be disappointed by accepting the “average” horse.
6. I did learn about the mysterious “outs” that bothered me in previous sales. These are horses that worked, but developed small vet issues after their work. The consigners still want buyers to come look at the horse, and maybe buy it later privately, but have already decided to scratch the horse earlier in the week. The outs can also be horse that gets no vet checks or scopes.
7. After building this list I like the Ocala sale a little better. You can get some interesting pedigrees at good prices if you are willing to accept some slower works.

Now let’s take a more rational approach to this sale and try to come up with a more realistic list. Let’s use $100,000 as the budget, and realize that we might stretch to $120,000 in a rare case, but try to keep the average to $75,000. My focus would have been on the 10.2 and higher works (or 21.2+). Here are my selections in rank order:

1. By a significant margin my favorite horse was hip #751 a son of Funtastic. This was one of my favorites from the Keeneland September sale. Only a semi-crazy person come away from sale of 1200+ horses with their favorite horse being a Funtastic. This is a conventionally bred horse because the mare was a Elusive Quality sprinter. The nick is only a B, but Funtastic is not a typical son of More Than Ready. Remember that Funtastic won a G1 at 1 1/2 miles. A group called Omni Racing paid $120,000. They are only 2 for 41 at Golden Gate, so this will be a good test of the little guy. I was very impressed by the work a consigner Scanlon Training and Sales, they move right to the top of my new list. This was a big strong horse that worked a slow 10.2 because of small foot problem. He is also an April 30 foal.
2. My second favorite comes from my leading sire Oscar Performance. Hip #1210 is an A rated nick of Kitten’s Joy with and Unbridled Song mare (in this case Will Take Charge). Many would consider this guy “too small” to be a good horse, but let’s watch. The buyer for $120,000 was Hooties Racing. The seller was the large operation Niall Brennan Stables, let’s put them on the list. Maybe I am trying to hard to make Oscar performance work, but I am not giving up yet. The work was 10.2, but the rumor was the “gallop out” was well above average.
3. My third favorite is hip #1152, a daughter of Mendelssohn out of a Street Hero mare. She was purchased for $105,000 by an agent Gayle Van Leer from the good folks at Scanlon. The works was a slow 10.2, so maybe this is a fair price for a Mendelssohn. It is interesting to note that Scanlon also sold the $1,300,000 Mendelssohn, and that they also sold 15 of 16 horses (only one RNA, for $200,000 on a Distorted Humor with a 10.0 work)
4. My fourth favorite is a daughter of Oscar Performance. The mare is a daughter of the great Lemon Drop Kid. This is the same nick as Divisidero. The buyer for $120,000 was Taproot Bloodstock from a small consigner Silvestre Chavez. I want to learn more about Taproot. This was hip #834. I thought the pasterns were a little straight for a turf horse, but I hate to rely on my judgement on this trait.
5. Maybe I am trying too hard to make Cairo Prince work, but hip #252 is a colt out a great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway. The nick is A++ and he is an April 28 foal. This was a $90,000 purchase by the same guy who bought the $650,000 Bolt d’Oro. The consigner was Six K’s (they sold 9 of 10). Let’s see if expert advise gives us any advantage. The work was an ok 10.1
6. I still have hope for Summer Front, who had hip #504. The dam is by Medaglia d’Oro and the second dam is the great $2,000,000+ winning Hystericalady. The nick is C+, but that is with War Front. The buyer is Martin Dowell (once got 2nd in the Preakness) for $105,000. The consigner was Davis Breaking and Training. I had a chance to meet them and they seems like trustworthy folks. They are also the parents of Quick Tempo trainer Chris Davis. the work was 10.2 for the 4/2 foal.
7. I did not expect to have a daughter of Fed Biz (hip# 100 in my top 10, but this one comes from a nice Street Cry mare and a top producing AP Indy 2nd dam. The work was a decent 21.2. Peter Miller bought her for $50,000 from the big Wavertree Stables consignment (they sold 40 and only RNAed 6).
8. Let’s try to find our Brooklyn Strong story (a $5,000 Ocala buy in 2020). Hip #131 is a son of Tapwrit, mom was a nice Arch mare, the 2nd dam a top producing Seeking the Gold mare, and the family comes from a top Irish background. This is the ultimate plodder/plodder, and therefore sold for only $20,000 to an owner with only 2 wins. This came from the Brennan consignment and we liked what we saw visually. His name is Heart Boy.
9. This is a classic May foal that still has growing to do. A son of Malibu Moon out of a Tiznow mare. The Brilliant folks loved his stride in the 10.2 work. Hip #1199 sold for $65,000 to Gulfstream trainer Dan Pita. The consigner was well respected Nick deMeric.
10. Hip #929 is a son of Tapwrit out of a Empire Maker mare. The nick is A++. This horse is a cribber. This was a favorite of our consultant. The buyer for $75,000 was Jim DiVito from the consignment of Off the Hook
11. Everything goes better with a Bernardini mare, Hip #18 is a daughter of Always Dreaming. The nick is an A. The work was a slow 21.3, but deLuca Racing paid $80,000 to a small consigner called Potrero. This was the only horse they sold at Ocala. Let’s watch the results from a small consigner
12. To find value at these sales you sometimes have to go to unpopular sires. There are not many more unpopular than Exaggerator. The mare is by Medaglia d’Oro. Team Westview Stables paid $30,00 to consigner Jesse Hoppel (the same guy that sold Brooklyn Strong). This is a stretch, but not completely crazy.
13. Let’s stick with the unpopular sire idea with a daughter of Mastery out of a Pulpit mare. Ruby Racing paid $80,000 to a very small consigner named Wildheart. This was hip #938. The work was 10.2
14. Obscure sires is another method of finding value. Here we turn to the daughter of Bee Jersey. This was a nice looking horse, with a fast work (21.0) by a sire nobody knows. Pat Biancone paid $120,000 to Wavertree. The dam has well above average turf pedigree. This was hip #954.
15. Hip #714 is a prime example of my new strategy. Why did Calumet pay $90,000 for a Dialed In with a slow 10.3 work? This horse has a great pedigree, and was nice looking. The consigner was Niall Brennan. The nick is B+. Maybe this is over doing the strategy, or maybe the work was better than it looked.
16. I did like the Dialed In’s that I saw. Hip #1005 adds a Street Cry mare, and a Euro family. Tampa/Jersey trainer Mike Dini paid $50,000 to consigner Niall Brennan. This an A nick and a 10.2 work. A 5/2 foal and a NY bred.
17. In all honesty I did not like most of the Good Magic’s I saw, but hip #240 was ok. I love the Euro pedigree on the bottom. The nick is a B, and the work was 10.2. Juan Arriagadda paid $42,000 to a small consigner Woodside Ranch.
18. A local handicapping expert picked a Tapiture filly from a Medaglia d Oro mare, hip #791. the 2nd dam was a good runner and great producer. Keith Dickey paid only $30,000 to Grassroots for a 10.1 work. The nick gods rate this only a C.
19. Another handicapper pick was a Frosted colt out a Malibu Moon mare. The 2nd dam was a nice runner and producer. Peter Miller paid $75,000 to Wavertree for a nice 21.0 work. Frosted is a well hated sire. The nick gods give it a D. Can 3×4 to AP indy be that bad? Hip #701.
20. Let’s try a controversial pick from Jorge Navarro’s Sharp Azteca. I love the Pocket Aces yearling by this sire. Let’s choose hip #136 with a high quality Tapit mare. Doug O’Neil paid $60,000 for a 10.2 work.
21. Let’s try one for educational purposes. This daughter of Bolt d’Oro, out of a Scat Daddy mare is a classic TGTBT horse. Bolt’s were selling for big prices. This was a great looking horse with a 10.1 work. The $100,000 that Hunsicker Racing paid seems to low. The small consigner might be a little offbeat to some observers. This is the type of horse I would have picked last year.