Asymmetric

One of the big reasons that you invest in yearlings is the potential for the big, “asymmectric”, return. It can be very frustrating to look at a list of 20 yearlings and find only 6 that have won a MSW race. What you have to remember is the chance for the big payoff.

On the eve of the Pegasus races, it is a good chance to review what can happen.

Knicks Go was hip #2106 (book 4 today) at the Keeneland sale in 2107. He sold for $87,000 (well above the median for that day). Only 4 offspring of Paynter sold for more, and 39 sold for less. This is a perfect example of “paying up” for a second tier sire. The mare, Kosmo’s Buddy, won $300,000 in 37 starts, mainly in Maryland bred turf sprints. Her best Equibase fig was 102. Of her first 3 foals only 1 had been a winner of $30,000. The mare’s father was the forgettable Outflanker.

Knicks Go has won $8.7 million dollars and will earn $30,000 a pop at stud. How many investment opportunities provide 100-1 payoffs? Not many.

Colonel Liam was hip #1272 in Keeneland 2018. He sold for just $50,000. Liam’s Map was a very popular sire that year. There were 35 Liam’s Map’s that sold for over $50,000 and only 5 that sold for less. The mare, Amazement, never made it to the race track. Of her first two sons, one had made $70,000. and the other had not raced. Her father was the magical Bernardini, and her grandmother was $1,500,000 earner, Wonder Again.

In many ways this was a perfect “empty mare” selection. The female family (Bernardini and Silver Hawk) is a perfect plodder pedigree. CL was also a late 4/17 foal. No pinhooker in their right mind wanted this horse. This is exactly the type of horse I am looking for at a yearling sale.

You have to “keep your eye on the prize”. In fact, I just might name my first horse Asymmetric.

Damn, my former research client, Seth Klarman, has already used that name. Mr. Klarman is one of the greatest institutional investors in recent memory.