Executing the Best Strategy

Now let’s try to look back at the Keeneland sale and find the best horses.

Let’s use this outline:

1. top 10 horses from my top 10 sires
2. backup selection for each of my top 10 sires
3. 18 horses by 2nd tier sires
4. 12 horse from the “dirty dozen sires
5. 10 wildcards from various sires
6. 10 under $50,000 horses

That is a total of 70 horses to focus on.

I would call it a success if 25 won a MSW at a decent track. Only a modest success if 20 win a MSW, and mostly a failure if only 15 win, in the two years after selection.

Let’s use the sire list shown in the next post.

1. f – Best Performer – Oscar Performance – Kinsley by Pulpit – A+ nick, nick of Real Solution, $60,000 by Wayne Sanders, mare won $65,000, 93 routing, 1 winner of 3 foals $65,000, decent 2nd dam by Unbridled Song, hip #2369 – , one start at KEE
2. c – Acquired Class – Cairo Prince – Auntie Sparkles by More Than Ready, A++ nick, $70,000 by SoCal Seven, mare unplaced, 2 foals, 1 foal won $30,000, great family of Idol, 3rd dam by Nureyev, 4/9 foal, hip #1768 – 1 start at SA
3. c – Supernova – Mendelssohn – Our Maria Celeste by Galileo – C+ nick, $150,000 Gargan Racing, mare unraced, 1 foal unraced, great family 2nd dam produced General Quarters, hip #100 – 1 work at SAR
4. f – Princess Buttercups?? – Kitten’s Joy – Bengala by Pivotal – $120,000 by DB Stable, A++ nick, nick of Oscar Performance, 2nd dam a nice Irish bred, hip #1404

These are my top 4 turf horses. They are all great examples of “empty mares”. It is hard to find horses that fit all 10 of my criteria. Each one usually has one part that does not quite “fit”.

If I owned any of these four horses, I would be very satisfied I had executed my strategy.

Now let’s look at dirt horses:

1. f – Queen of Chill – Bolt d’Oro – Confirmation Bias by Orb – D nick, $130,000 by Blake James, mare unplaced, this is her 2nd foal, first in unraced, 2nd dam won $900,000 and producer 2 winners of $500,000, best looking horse I saw at the sale, hip #2250, 2 bad starts in KY.
2. c – Fridaynightsoldier– Connect – Mining for Mercury by The Factor, B+ nick, $150,000 Flurry Racing, dam unplaced, one foal that has not started, 2nd dam produced G2 routing stakes winner, 5/8 foal, hip #1171, working in Ken.
3. f – Bella Michelle – Unified – Irish Princess by Bernardini, A nick, $105,000 by Mayberry Farm, mare placed, sold for $180,000, 2nd dam ran 91 routing at Calder, everything is better with a Bernardini mare, hip #2351, hip 578 at Ocala April, RNA $145,000, 4 starts at AQU
4. c – St Andres – Blame – Empresse by Empire Maker, A++ nick, $60,000 by Bob Stipa, mare placed, 2 foals, 1 won $140,000, 2nd dam produced Air Force Blue, hip #2692, hip #406 at Ocala April, out, running in PR
5. f – Star of Tomorrow – Union Rags – Chi Omega by Distorted Humor, A nick, $120,000 by Mike Waters, mare unplaced, 2 foals, 1 won $30,000, 2nd dam won $1,000,000 routing, 4/29 foal, hip #2232, one work at OK
6. f – xxxxxxxx – Liam’s Map – Island School by AP Indy, A+ nick, nick of Colonel Liam, $55,000 by Royal Flush Racing, mare 2nd in Gulfstream Oaks, ran a 108, 4 foals, 1 winner of $150,000, 2nd dam by Kingmambo, 5/4 foal, hip #2763, hip #581 at Ocala April, out

These are 10 horses that really fit my strategy. The mares have not thrown any great horses and were all at least bred to be routers. Only one of the nicks was poor, and that was a great looking horse by a new sire. Maybe this group was a little expensive, but I wanted to error on the high side, rather than the cheap side. Most were selling after book 3. A lot of the “cool kids” go home after the first three books.

Now let’s add a backup for each top 10 sire:

1. f – Proud Performer – Oscar Performance – Proud Heroine by Proud Citizen – $45,000 by Kirk Robison. A++ nick, first foal, 3rd dam is dam of Honor AP, very realistic idea, hip #2870, one start at CHU
2. c – Billy’s Got Issues – Cairo Prince – Make Haste by Tiznow – D nick, $110,000 by Oracle Bloodstock, mare unraced, four of five foals have been modest winners, decent 2nd dam and French family, let’s trust Oracle, hip #2398, working at AQU
3. f – Claudette’s Lady – Mendelssohn – Dolce Lemon by Lemon Drop Kid – B+ nick, $130,000 by Gentry Farm, mare won $60,000, she did have one small stakes winner from 2 foals, 2nd dam very good runner and producer, just can’t pass on the LDK mare, hip #2270, working in Florida
4. f – xxxxxxxxx – Kitten’ Joy – Cumbria by Distorted Humor – A nick, $52,000 by DKW Racing, mare ran 83 at 1 1/8 miles and won $54,000, this is her first foal, 2nd dam by Sadler’s Wells produced turf star Maximova, hip #2255, hip #321 Ocala April, worked 10.2, bought for $40,000 by Luis Duco
5. c – Bolt d’Plata – Bolt d’Oro – Hekaayaat by Mr. Greeley, B+ nick, $60,000 by Gatsas Stable, small winning mare, has had one $50,000 winner from 3 foals, lot’s of Euro pedigree under the 2nd dam, hip #2737, working in ny
6. f – The Alys Look – Connect – Foul Play by Harlan’s Holiday, B+ nick $60,000 by Thrash Racing, mare a small winner, this is her 2nd foal, 2nd dam by the great Thunder Gulch, hip #2306, winner at FG
7. f – xxxxxxxx – Unified – Rendition by AP Indy, C nick, Mike Donoto for $70,000, mare has had 4 small winners, hip #2046, bad nick but AP Indy can’t be that bad, 2nd dam Seeking the Gold from a G1 winner, hip #2046
8. f – I’mherefortheparty – Blame – Fashion Brand by Medaglia d’Oro – A nick, $100,000 by Homewrecker Racing, mare placed, this is her first foal, great family Roberto, Summer Squall, and Bernardini, hip #1880, one start in Indy
9. f – Clever Disguise – Union Rags – Multiplayer by Giant’s Causeway, A nick, $50,000 by Eddie Kennally, mare a $90,000 winner and this is her second foal, family includes Dynaformer and Theatrical, hip #2000
10. f – Grapes for Eloise – Liam’s Map – View from the Top by Sky Mesa, A+ nick, $110,000 by Joel Politi, second foal, first won $9,000, family includes Smart Strike and Sky Classic, hip #2160, one start at CD

I am thrilled by the second team. This group is a little cheaper, but still very representative of strong families but unproductive mares.

Sires 11-21

1. c – Solevo – City of Light – Pleasant Mine by Pleasant Tap – B+ nick, $170,000 by PSS Stable, mare won $100,000, this is her second foal, female family includes Pleasant Tap and The Minstrel, 4/30 foal
2. c – Hey Brother – City of Light – Sca Doodle by Scat Daddy – A++ nick, $160,000 by Rockingham Ranch, mare was a stakes winner in Manitoba, her first foals won $50,000
3. f – Bella Stradale – Street Sense – Saratoga Belle by The Factor , A nick, $70,000 by Daytona Stable, hip #2067
4. f – Charisse – Street Sense – Maximova by Danehill Dancer , C nick, $140,000 by William Parsons, dam was a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles, first foal not much, lot of Euro pedigree in the family, NY -bred
5. Candy Zone – Twirling Candy – f – Maui Town by Speightstown – $100,000, Sami Racing, D nick, nice looking horse from the Brilliant short list, hip #727 Ocala April, sold for only $30,000 to Expoline
6. c – Honor Lord – Honor Code – Delicatus by Distorted Humor – B nick, $55,000 by Oracle, dam unraced, first 2 foals small winners, 2nd dam second in the Shuvee, hip #3107
7. f – Cookie Bandit – Honor Code – Raise the Flag by Awesome Again, B+ nick, big 2nd dam, $57,000 Gary Broad, worked at CD
8. f – Wreaking Havoc – Mastery – Keening by Curlin, C nick, $55,000 by Wayne Sanders, dam won $200,000 but first two foals have been bad, nice looking, hip #1943
9. c – Dominari – Mastery colt by a Street Cry mare. I want to try and steal a Mastery. They have not really run so far, and they did not train or sell at the 2 year old sales. This is a value play for under $150,000. The good folks at Centennial called my bluff and bought this one for $190,000
10. c – Steady Scheming – Good Magic – Ancient Goddess by Iffaaj – C nick, $150,000 by Oracle, dam won $130,000, this is her 2nd foal, decent Euro family, hip #1757, working in ny
11. f – Magic Miss – Good Magic – Diplomatic Miss by Violence – C nick, $82,000 by Small Miracle, first foal, 2nd dam won $1,000,000, hip #3109, Brilliant folks liked the physical, #364 Ocala April, worked 10.2, sold for $47,000 to Fontana, MC winner in NY
12. c – Toast to Coast – West Coast – Majestica by Street Sense – $65,000 Willis Horton, A++ nick, mare unraced, first two foals are bad, 2 bad starts in Ken.
13. c – Big Sur – West Coast – Verna Lea by Super Saver, 4/17 foal, $95,000 from Four Star Sales, C nick, 2nd dam by Broad Brush won the Delaware Oaks, part of the Brilliant Racing Partnership, deceased
14. f – xxxxxxxx -Tonalist – Sucat by Medaglia d’Oro, 3/28 foal, $65,000 from Timber Town, B nick, full brother is Circle Back Jack, 3rd in a stake at Keeneland 10/10/2, part of the Brillant Racing Partnership, hip #2957, deceased
15. f – Girl Named Charlie – Maclean’s Music – Dynarama by Dynaformer – A++ nick, $160,000 by Jerry Caroom, mare won $40,000, has one $250,000 winner in 6 tries, hip #2684, 3 starts in CD
16. c – Donegal Factor – The Factor – No Fault by Tiznow – A nick, $105,000 by Donegal, hip #2007, 3 starts in CD
17. f – Influentialous – The Factor – Rightful Time by Bodemeister – A nick, $37,000 by Barberino, hip #2890, nice long looking horse, dam unraced, neither of first two foal has won, 4 starts in NY
18. c – Prix de West – Classic Empire – Morrow by Pivotal, $150,000 Randy Bradshaw, A++ nick, dam unlace, one $40,000 offspring, hip #460

Dirty Dozen Sires:

1. f – Proud Mary – Point of Entry – Absolute Crackers by Giant’s Causeway – D nick, $32,000 by Donato Lanni, mare decent $200,000 winners, but first 4 foals have been bad, hip #3715
2. c – Crypto Man – Funtastic – Mikey Likes It by Elusive Quality – B nick, $62,000 by Scanlon Sales, mare won $100,000, first foals have been bad, great looking horse by an experimental sire, hip #2409, #751 Ocala April, sold for $120,000 to Omni racing, one start in Calf
3. f – xxxxxxx- Midnight Storm – Better Not Blink by Hard Spun, A+ nick, $50,000 by Lindsay Schultz Racing, mare unplaced, first two foals not much, family includes Scat Daddy and Seattle Slew, hip #3043
4. f – Miss Kristy – Good Samaritan – Polly Alexander by Harlan’s Holiday – A nick, $55,000 by George Viries, mare son $60,000, she has produced 10 average winners, good Euro family, lets try one with lots of brothers and sisters, hip #1613, 4 starts in fla
5. f – Ghostly Girl – Shaman Ghost – Lady Dyna by Tapit – D nick, $100,000 by McPeek, mare won $50,000 and first 3 foals are bad, 2nd dam a Dynaformer with big Euro family, hip #2784. 3 starts in CD
6. f – Convidada – Ransom the Moon – Catlanta by Medaglia d’Oro – 4/8, A nick, $35,000 by emerald Pond , mare unraced, three foals have been small winners, I was impressed by this sire even though he was only a sprinter. This was a nice looking 2 turn horse, hip #3071, hip #249 Ocala April, worked 10.3, sold for $23,000 to Puerto Rico
7. c – xxxxxxxx – Girvin -Daring Prospect by Mineshaft, hip #3495, hip #337 Ocala April, out
8. c – Magistrate – Tapwrit – Eccentric Spinster by Distorted Humor, hip #2279, working in NY
9. c – Red Five – Astren – Sibilant by Street Sense , Adelphi, hip #2926, working in KY
10. f – Grand Arrow – Accelerate – Street Surprise by Street Sense, $50,000 Geofrey, no nick rating, mare won $60,000 with two small winning foals, AP Indy 2nd dam, big Euro family, hip #3358, 3 bad starts at gp
11. c – Zibuhar – Midshipmen – Dark Channel by English Channel, hip #3103
12. c – xxxxxxxx – Mineshaft – Wine Glow by Tiznow, hip #3010

Wildcards:

1. c – Philharmonic – Mendelssohn – Practice – by Smart Strike, $140,000 Mossarosa, A+ nick, my favorite from the FTOCT sale, great photo, 2nd dam by Galileo, 5/2, my “perfect” colt, no front on video???, 2 starts
2. f – Le Beau – Mendelssohn – Mortgage the House by Chester House, 5/2 foal. A+ nick, $320,000 – Legion Bloodstock – This was a great looking, sleek horse, so I will forgive then for overpaying a little. hip #461 Saratoga sale, work in fla
3. c – Professor Higgins – Oscar Performance – Noble Ready – c – by More Than Ready – $125,000 Louie Roussel, B nick, 4/14, mare 2nd in a small stake, one start in fla
4. c – xxxxxxxx – Collected by Coronation Street by Street Cry – $200,000, A+ nick, hip #317 Saratoga sale
5. f – Slow Dial – Dialed In – Uchitel by Mineshaft – $200,000 by Repole, dam unraced, dam produced a $700,000 winner, big 2nd dam by Alleged, 5/5 foal, hip 301 Saratoga sale, one bad start in ny
6. c – Baseline Beater – Flatter – Seize the Ring by Tiznow – A++ nick, nick of West Coast, $130,000 by Lothenbach, dam won $11,000, first foal, 2nd dam won $1,000,000, hip #2508, 2 starts
7. c – xxxxxxxx Lookin at Lucky – More Hoping by North Light, C+ nick, $100,000 by Calumet, nice looking but boring, hip #2421, Jerry Romans loved this horse
8. f – xxxxxxxx – Bernardini – Morilles by Montjeu – 5th foal, 3/23, B+ nick, 2019 baby sold for only $3,000, no photo, $99,000
9. c – xxxxxxxx – Ransom the Moon – Kitty Quality by Quality Road, A++ nick, $80,000 Albert Davis, LDK 2nd dam, first foal, Sold for $200,000, Bregman Racing Ocala April
10. f – xxxxxxxx – Creative Cause – Wild Poppy by El Prado, $70,000 by Patterson, hip #3008

Low Price Strategy:

These are less than $55,000:

1. c – Fastbyte – Gigahertz – by Dynaformer – $35,000 KatieRich Farm, 5/3, A nick, nick of Saldler’s Joy, maybe too much pedigree, my favorite from FTOCT, nice photo, 6 works at Kenneland, winner at Indy
2. f – Minari – Oscar Performance – Striking Style – by Smart Strike – $45,000 Jason Hall, C+ nick, mare set NCR at 1 1/4 turf mile at Belmont, 2 decent babies, working at gp
3. c – Graceful Fighter – Mendelssohn – Madame Clouseau by Galileo, $34,000, 3/23, long and racy, one start at WO
4. f – Bad Samaritan – Good Samaritan – Done and Dusted by Bodemeister – $15,000 by Blue Streak – foaled 4/6, bought from Turning Point Bloodstock at Saratoga August, $30,000, C+ nick, nick of Mandaloun, solid Kingmambo 2nd dam, NY- bred
5. c – Remastered -Mastery – Sunrise Glow by Distorted Humor, 2/6 foal, $30,000 from Indian Creek, A nick, 2nd dam solid Empire Maker mare, in Brilliant Racing partnership
6. f – Irish Empress – Classic Empire – Strikealinethruit by Officer, foaled 1/20, bought by private sale from Vinery Sales after FT -Timonium, $15,000, no nick rating, 2nd dam multiple stakes winner long on the grass, NY-bred
7. f – Fly Condor – Army Mule – Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore, C nick, $52,000, by Meah/Lloyd hip #3242, 4 bad starts
8. f – Delphia – Mucho Macho Man – Quality Diamond by Quality Road – B nick, $45,000 by Donato Lanni, mare unraced, three foals with 1 $60,000 winner, hip #2474, 2nd dam by Pleasantly Perfect
9. c – xxxxxxxx – Super Saver – Ponder Lea by More Than Ready – $37,000, 5/19, not a pedigree I love, but a very solid looking horse, maybe a great value
10. f – Arc Light – Sharp Azteca – Sarah Elizibeth by Sky Mesa – D nick, $20,000 by Pocket Aces, first foal of an unraced mare, i just love the picture and the writeup by Pocket Aces, she is tall and long despite the sprinty sire

Horses to watch:

1. f – xxxxxxxxx -Mastery – Taralena by Arch, 2nd foal, 5/3, Candy Meadows, B nick, solid photo and walk, This was an RNA but let’s watch, not really included in the list, best looking horse I saw at Keeneland.
2. f – xxxxxxxx – City of Light – Betty Draper by Street Cry, 3/7, RNA $165,000 from Runnymeade, mom won going 1 1/2 miles, great looking horse, where will this horse show up???, Ocala March, out
3. f – xxxxxxxx – Bolt d’Oro – strong, big shoulder, A++ nick, ok Ghostzapper mare, RNA $115,000 by Denali Stud, bah humbug
4. #277 – Tonalist – 2nd dam by Dynaformer, A++ nick, nick of Country Grammer, $35,000
5. #103 – f – Collected – Aurore by Arch – April 1, B nick $32,000 RNA
6. #180 -f – West Coast – Rock and Glory by Rock Hard Ten, A nick, 4/17 foal, private sale of $125,000
7. f – Lady Quinn – Central Banker – Wrigley Ivy by Pleasant Tap – Alfred choice #320, with deep female family that sold for only $23,000, maybe that’s a bargain., 3 starts in NY
8. 4. #2511 – Collected colt from a Lemon Drop Kid mare