Kentucky Derby Trail

The Kentucky Derby trail is still a very cloudy picture. Let’s look at the top horses at the Circa Sports book and see what breeding strategies we can learn from the top horses.

1. Corniche – The BC Juvenile winner is a son of the great Quality Road. He is from a solid mare that won almost $1,000,000, but started by running at Retama Park. The horse was hip #10 at the Keeneland yearling sale, but was a $385,000 RNA from boutique firm Stonehaven. A Texas oilman paid a cool $1,500,000 at the Ocala sale after a 10.0 work (there were 20 works of 9.4). The female family was route oriented including Blushing Groom, Seattle Slew, and Nijinsky. The mare had 4 winners from 5 foals, but none had won more than $100,000. The nick is now rated A++. Will the Derby winner really come from a 2 year old in training sale? Could any smart buyer got him for $400,000 (2.7x the stud fee) as a yearling?
2. Smile Happy – The Kentucky Jockey Club winner is by controversial sire Runhappy. The mare won a $7,500 maiden claimer at Turfway. She was a daughter of the great Pleasant Tap, and was 5×5 to Ribot. She produced 3 winners from 5 foals, none won $100,000 The nick is A++. Kenny McPeek paid $185,000 at the FT Select sale as a yearling for this guy. Can a Runhappy go 1 1/4 miles?
3. Messier – This guy was a $470,000 FT Select yearling purchase by Donato Lanni, Starlight and others. The mare was a small Ontario bred stakes winner by the great Smart Strike for the San-Son Farms folks. The second dam is by AP Indy. The mare’s first two foals did not run. The sire Empire Maker win the Belmont, but had not had that many great horses
4. Rattle N Roll – Ken McPeek paid $210,000 for this son of Connect as hip #1822 at Keeneland September. The mare by Johannsberg won one race going a mile at Parx. The nick is A++
5. Jack Christopher – The son of Munnings was an RNA at a summer sales and then sold for $135,000 at the FT October sale. Liz Crow was the advisor to the group that bought him. The mare was a winless sprinting daughter of sprinter Half Ours. The chance of this horse getting 1 1/4 miles seems remote.
6. Zandon – This guy is an unusual son of Upstart. Owner Jeff Drown paid $170,000 for hip #2686 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. The mare was an unraced daughter of the little known Creative Cause, and the second dam was unplaced. The other foals of the dam never raced. This was a big price for a poorly bred horse. Maybe Chad Brown can work his magic on the horse that nearly won the Remsen.
7. Classic Causeway – One of the last sons of the great Giant’s Causeway, this homebred is from a family owned mare that won a small stake at 7 furlongs. The mare was by the super stamina influence Thunder Gulch.
8. Commandperformance – This son on Union Rags is from a Tapit mare the won once going a mile at Fairgrounds. Only one of her first 3 foals was a winner, and a slow one. Repole and St. Elias paid $220,000 for hip #1569 from the Keeneland yearling sale.
9. Pappacap – This son of Gun Runner is a Rustlewood homebred out of a nice Scat Daddy mare that ran well at 1 1/8 miles.
10. Mo Donegal – This son of Uncle Mo was a $250,000 purchase as hip #903 at the Keeneland September sale. The mare, by Pulpit, won a 7 furlong allowance race at Laurel. The nice folks at Donegal Partners own this horse. I considered investing in this partnership, but I am not an Uncle Mo fan.
11. Wit – He is a son of Practical Joke, from a Medaglia d’Oro mare. Repole paid $575,000 for hip #725 at Keeneland. This mare has produced another G3 winner (Barkley). has not worked since October.
12. Rockefeller – Regally bred son of Medaglia d’Oro and a multiple G1 winner by Speightstown. He was hip #125 at Keeneland. Partially owned by Starlight which paid $750,000.
13. Major General – He is a son of Constitution. He is the first foal of an unraced Uncle Mo mare. The second dam is the great lemon Drop Kid. He was hip #303 at Keeneland and sold for $420,000.
14. Howling Time – A son of hot sire Not This Time from a stamina mare by Arch. The Albaugh’s paid only $200,000 for hip #1635 at Keeneland.
15. HP Moon – A son of Malibu Moon, from a slow running Distorted Humor mare. Sold for $100,000 as a FT yearling, and then RNAed at a training sale for $385,000.
16. Rocket Dawg – Ten Strike and Liz Crowe paid $375,000 at FT Select for this son of Classic Empire. The mare won a Golden Gate allowance race at 1 1/16 miles.
17. Epicenter – The son of Not This Time is from a Candy Ride mare that was an allowance router at Arlington. Only 2 of the mares first 5 foals were winners, and none made more than $40,000. Winchell paid $260,000 for hip #1956 at Keeneland.
18. Cyberknife – Another son of Gun Runner and an stakes winning Flower Alley mare. Cox’s owners paid $400,000 at the FT Select yearling sale.

Is the winner in this group? The other horses are 100-1 at Circa. It is hard to see a superstar in this group. Maybe it is too early to look at this list.

What conclusions can you draw from this analysis?

1. No Into Mischief’s on the list
2. It is a 50-50 mix of expensive horses, and $200,000 horses, no real cheap horses.
3. Only 2 home breds, and everything else through a yearling sale
4. A mix of expensive sires with a few Connect’s and Upstart’s
5. Lot’s of mares with no previous star runners, a strong endorsement of the “empty mare” strategy
6. Lots of mares with routing experience
7. Lots of A nicks