Focus On – Oscar Performance

Now that I have finished my list of 200 yearlings, it is time to go back and do some polishing. The goal in these “focus on” posts is to try ranking the horse a little more closely. Obviously this is done with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, but it is still a useful exercise.

What if I had went into 2021 looking exclusively for an offspring of Oscar Performance?

I might very well ended up with hip #2111 from the Keeneland September sale. In the real world this horse was purchased by Agent Jason Hall for $45,000. It is possible this horse will be sold again as a two year old. It appears that Hall is a pinhooker that send his horses to Luis Mendez. This will be an interesting horse to watch. Hall only buys horses where the mare was an actual successful runner.

What did I like about #2111? The clear answer is the mares ability to run successfully at 1 1/4 miles on the turf at Belmont. She ran a 99 Equibase fig, and set a NCR at Belmont for this seldom fun distance. The good news she ran this fast time in a allowance race, yet she never placed in a stakes race. What I learn from this exercise is that “sneaky good” running ability at a distance is a very desirable item. It is also a major positive that the mare sold for $280,000 as a yearling at Keeneland. It is also a major positive that the first foal of the mare has been a solid, but not outstanding performer. Win Worthy sold for $20,000 as a yearling, but $90,000 as a two year old. The second baby by Honor Code sold for $75,000 and is just getting started in Indiana. The 2nd dam was also a runner, finishing second in the G1 Hollywood Starlet in a short career, and is by Rahy. Hip #2111 is also a may 5th foal, which might scare off many pinhookers. The consigner is Lane’s End, which I view as a small positive.

The major negative of hip #2111 is the nick is only a C+. The Kitten’s Joy/Smart Strike cross has been tried many times with only modest success. Smart Strike is the father of Curlin, and the damsire of Mine That Bird and Dullahan. I wish the nick were better, but it is hard to find the perfect horse. You could argue that the the price of $45,000 is a little to low, maybe almost TGTBT. It is still over 3x the current stud fee (OP’s fee was decreased to $12,500 from an initial $20,000). I still think this might be my favorite OP, let’s put her at the top of the list.

If #2111 was my target, but I thought the price was “too low” even TGTBT, what was my second choice? If I had wanted a better nick I would have waited on #2369. This is a daughter of a Pulpit mare, which make this an A++ nick because it is the nick of Kitten’s Joy’s best son Real Solution. In the real world Wayne Sanders paid $60,000 for this horse. He bought a dozen other modest priced horses. The seller was an interesting group called Candy Meadows, which might be a small positive. The 2nd dam was a decent runner and produced a $500,000 winner. I think this is a clear second choice.

The next logical OP was #2870. This horse had one major positive, the third dam, Hollywood Story, was a multiple G1 winner and produced the super horse Honor AP. Most likely this is not a good enough reason to buy a horse, but maybe it should be. #2870 was also a first foal of a slow Proud Citizen mare. This was a high risk choice, but an interesting one. the price was right $45,000.

Another decent idea is #2136. Here the mare is by stamina influence Broken Vow. Even more important is the mare was bred by the great George Stawbridge. Even though the nick is rated D, I would take a chance. The extended family has plenty of Euro members.Neither of the first two babies have raced, so the price is right at $50,000.

Now let’s think about what we could have done with a bigger budget. I think the clear answer here in #1594. This is a colt that the controversial Louie Roussel paid $125,000 for. The damsire is the solid More Than Ready. He can help with some long distance stamina. The nick here is a ok B. The mare ran a solid 2nd in a small turf stake route. The first foal sold for $90,000 as a yearling and $200,000 as a 2 year old. The 2nd dam produced two great turf routers. This is a very sold horse.

Another $100,000 colt worth considering is #2463. The key here an interesting Quality Road mare. The nick with Gone West is rated A. The 2nd dam was a nice French stakes horse. The problem here is the mare finally won a $16,000 maiden claimer. It would be better if she were unraced. Her first bay also quickly became a claimer. This horse points out how running can actually be a negative. The price tag seems a little steep.

The next interesting horse was to wait until #2691. Here the mare was G3 placed and has produced a decent foal. The problem here is the that the Kitten’s Joy/Danehill nick is a poor D. This is a horse worth thinking about. Maybe the nick should be ignored, but when the bidding went to $130,000 here I think I would have passed.

Let’s try one bargain basement horse. Generally I would consider a $10,000 horse as TGTGT, but let’s make one exception. I make this exception because I love Fusaichi Pegasus as a broodmare sire.

The first 8 come from the Keeneland September sale, abd the last two come the Fasig-Tipton October sale. My general conclusion is that it would have been better to strike early rather than wait.

My favorite from the later sale was a $35,000 colt from a Dynaformer mare. I also liked a $30,000 colt from a Street Sense mare purchased by OP former trainer Brian Lynch. Overall these two ideas ranked 5th and 6th in my OP selections.

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I really would have been happy to buy any of these 10 horses. Some OP’s that were excluded did not fit the “empty mare” strategy

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The list in order:

1. Striking Style – f – by Smart Strike – $45,000 Jason Hall, C+ nick, mare set NCR at 1 1/4 turf mile at Belmont, 2 decent babies
2. Best Performer – f – Kinsley – by Pulpit – $60,000 Wayne Sanders, A+ nick, nick of Real Solution, from Candy Meadows
3. Proud Performer – Proud Heroine – f – by Proud Citizen – $45,000 Kirk Robison. A++ nick, 1/15, first foal, 3rd dam is dam of Honor AP, very realistic idea
4. Tide is High – f – by Broken Vow, $50,000 Sterbenz Racing, D nick, stamina oriented mare
5. Gigahertz – c – by Dynaformer – $35,000 KatieRich Farm, 5/3, A nick, nick of Saldler’s Joy, maybe too much pedigree, my favorite from FTOCT, nice photo
6. Naive Enough – c – by Street Sense – $30,000 Brian Lynch trainer of OP, A nick, 2/28, from FTOCT
7. Noble Ready – c – by More Than Ready – $125,000 Louie Roussel, B nick, 4/14, mare 2nd in a small stake
8. Post Script – c – by Quality Road – $100,000 Foglia, A nick, 3/16
9. Royal Salute – Eloquently – c – by Dansili (a euro turf miler), $130,000, D nick, 3/11,
10. Bonita Donita – f – by Fusaichi Pegasus – $10,000 Stud Dozal, B+ nick, 2/24, bargain basement idea