I am very impressed by the group of horses put together by Centennial Farms at the Keeneland sale. Obviously, they spent a lot of money in a very expensive market. My approval is with the quality of the horses purchased, not the prices they paid.
It is important to note that I now fully understand and endorse the strategy of buying “empty mares”. That is buying horses where the mare was never much of a runner herself, and has not produced any significant offspring. Just six months ago this strategy would have seemed crazy, but now I understand it completely.
When my folks at Brilliant racing went out to find the best $50,000 horse, they immediately rejected any mare that had been a stakes competitor, or had produced a stakes runner. They knew the offspring of a successful mare would be too expensive. Even more importantly, Brilliant Racing believed that if the yearling they were evaluating had fallen into their price range it would most likely be TGTBT (to good to be true).
Please stop and read that paragraph a few times. It takes a while to make sense. I did not understand it for over a year. Let’s try to condense it to one sentence:
If you are trying to buy successful horses with any type of budget constraint:
The best strategy is to select great looking horses where the mare was neither a stakes quality runner, or has produced a stakes quality offspring.
Let’s watch and see exactly how Centennial uses this strategy to buy their horses.
The most expensive horse they bought was a $550,000 son of Violence. The mare, Tia Rafaela, never ran in a race and only sold as a $32,000 two year old in training. She ia a daughter of the great broodmare sire and stamina influence Bernardini. Tia Rafaela has had two babies. One was never even named, and the other was a modestly successful runner named Regal Quality. He was a $200,000 yearling purchase (Quality Road was the sire), but was quickly a $25,000 claimer. He has won $150,000 in 44 career starts. There is plenty of pedigree in the extended family. Tia Rafaela’s half-sister way G2 stakes winner, and the second dam came from an impressive family. The cross of Violence and a Bernardini mare is rated A+ by TrueNicks.
Stop right here and think about this horse because it is a model for this strategy.
Violence is a modestly priced $25,000 sire. The mare never ran and has produced only a $25,000 claimer. How can anyone pay $550,000 for this horse? He had to great looking, or maybe the guy who bid $540,000 is just as crazy.
The second Centennial horse is $370,000 son of stamina sire Blame. The mare, Salsa Diavola, ran two miserable races and never got in the money. Her two previous babies have not yet raced (one sold for $100,000 last year). The mare is almost completely “empty”. On the positive side, this is the cross of Nadal (Blame with a AP indy mare). Is that enough to pay $370,000 for. Blame is only a $20,000 sire. Six months ago I would have called this purchase crazy, now I call it “crafty”.
The third Centennial horse is a $200,000 son of Candy Ride. The dam, Well Lived, never won a race in five tries. She has had three babies, and only one won an allowance race. The mare is a full sister to, Well Armed, a winner of over $5 million. The Candy Ride/Tiznow cross is rated D, but the ability of the full sister is off the charts.
The fourth Centennial horse is a $190,000 son of Mastery. The dam, Spring Street tried four times and never won. She has produced 3 winners, but at minor tracks. The most successful did win the Manitoba Derby, but most of the folks at Keeneland could not find Assiniboia Downs if their life depended on it. Mastery is an out o favor sire that now stands for only $10,000. Although this cross is only rated B, it is the cross of Twirling Candy and Vekoma. Centennial bought a horse last year from the same mare.
Centennial Farms laid out a clear strategy and then executed it. That is not easy to do. This is an impressive group of horses. I really should be an investor. If I were not leaning toward trying to buy my own horse, I would be an investor in this four horse group. Centennial wants $56,000 for a 5% stake. That includes a reasonable estimate of expenses and some “markup”. I am extremely tempted to invest.
I wish I were a little more of a Violence fan, but if the horse were a son of Bernardini out of a Violence mare I would not complain. Candy Ride is not a sire I really love, but how can you argue with a full sister to a $5 million dollar winner as the female side. The Blame and Mastery are perfect choices. I may never see a four horse group I like this much.
Buying A Race Horse 