How?

How do you buy a $100,000 yearling at the Keeneland sale?

Let’s try to figure out where to start. My best guess is session 5. Maybe you could find a value in session 4, but the odds are against it. There will actually be a dark day between session 4 and 5 this year. Let’s hope the “cool kids” go home.

Last year session 5 had a median of $80,000 and an average of $100,000. About 50% of the horses got sold.

In session 4 last year the median was $130,000 and the average $172,000.

In session 6 last year the median was $50,000 and the average $75,000

It is a little hard to compare the 2019 results because session started at hip #935, this year the first hip is #1098. In 2019 the median was $160,000 and the average was $190,000.

Let’s make a prediction that for 2021 the session 5 median will be up 25% to $100,000 and the average will be $125,000

Session 5 is still a “mish mash”. The are $150,000 Quality Roads mixed in with $10,000 American Freedom’s, but in general there are plenty of $30,000 -$40,000 sires. Which means on average, the median horse will sell for 2-3x the stud fee.

Let’s take a journey through session 5

The first hip is #1098, but our first stop is #1117, a colt by Quality Road out of mare Kauai Katie. KK was a great runner, she won $700,000 including three Grade 3 races, including the Matron at 2 years old. The mare is daughter of Malibu Moon. The cross is rated B at True Nicks. The 2nd dam and extended family are average. The problem is her first four foals have been winless. What do you do? What will this guy sell for? Will it be $100,000 or $300,000? Not an easy call.

Now let’s stop a hip #1155. This son of $60,000 Street Sense is out of a Majestic Warrior mare that won first time out in a turf route at Saratoga. She was 5th in the Jessameine, but got hurt before she ever won an allowance race. She has produced one foal which has not yet run. This is the cross of Maxfield rated A. To me, this horse has to sell for $200,000+, if the bidding stops at $100,000, I would really be concerned that price is TGTBT.

Going to hip #1171 a colt by Culin’s son Connect ($15,000). The dam by The Factor was unplaced in one start, and her first foal has not yet raced. The nick is B+. The second dam produced Fair Ground Oaks winner Real Cozzy. Maybe this guy will get $75,000, but he is in the same sale as the two above.

What you rather have the Quality Road for $200,000 the Street Sense for $200,000, or the connect for $75,000. The answer is not obvious.