As I make my drive to the Keeneland yearling sale, I am stopping at the glamorous Southland dog track in West Memphis, to watch Quick Tempo run at Monmouth. They have free Wifi so let’s write down a few thoughts.
In all honesty I am not that excited about buying yearlings this year. I have a strong feeling that economic problems are around the next corner. Economic forecasters never do a good job of measuring small business. They completely missed the success of Reganomics in the 1980’s, because they missed the strength of small business. Now they are making the same mistake in reverse. The climate for small business has never been worse. I see a serious recession that starts in the 2nd quarter of next year. September 2022 will be a better time to buy horses. I will go to the sale to learn as much as I can, but I do not plan to make a large partnership purchase this year, but I will be watching with interest.
Unless, one of this big partnerships buys one of the following horses I like at a reasonable price:
1. #1408 – City of Light filly from a Street Sense mare. Mare ran her best race at 1 1/2 miles on the turf. 2nd dam was a solid producer. i like the Runnymeme Farm folks. B rating from True Nicks. This is the ultimate anti-pinhooker horse. I might be willing to pay $120,000. There are plenty of City of Light’s to choose from, maybe this girl could be a value.
This was a great looking horse, by far my favorite at the sale. She RNAed for $160,000. Let’s see if she shows up in the training sales. Maybe they figured the City of Lights were so popular they would just wait.
2. #2067 – Street Sense filly from a The Factor mare. 2nd dam produced some nice horses. A++ cross by True Nicks. I am developing a Street Sense fetish. The more I look at Maxfield, the more I want a horse that looks like that. Willing to go $120,000.
This horse was great looking, but was very small. I was surprise she sold for $70,000. She will be interesting to watch.
3. #1925 – Connect filly from a Street Sense mare. Mare ran well on turf and dirt and has produced a decent runner. You can see the pattern here, trying to get Street Sense at a discount. Willing to go $120,000.
Sold for a very full price of $200,000, the top Connect at the sale.
4. #2511 – Collected colt from a Lemon Drop Kid mare. 2nd dam was a solid producer. Cross rated A++ by True Nicks. Collected might be an underrated first year sire. LDK is another plodder favorite. Only willing to pay $80,000 here.
RNAed for $49,000. This would have been a great buy for $50,000
5. #2517 – Bernardini filly from an Unbridled Song mare . 2nd dam was a solid runner and producer. A++ nick. From the good folks at Sam-Son. The world is a good place with more Bernardini mares. Willing to go $80,000
Sold for a very big $300,000, which is a top price for a book 4 horse.
To me these are the horses pinhookers shy away from, and give “value investors” a shot at finding something nice.
Will any of the partnerships call my bluff? I doubt it, but it is not impossible.
To make this challenge fair I really should include a few more expensive horses.
- #1163 – Street Sense filly out of Australian super sire Exceed and Excel. Nick is A+. Again from the good folks at Runnymede. Willing to go $200,000 here. A new partnership group called Adelphi paid a very fair $90,000
- #920 – Street Sense filly out of Bernardini mare. Nick is only B, but still willing to go $200,000. . Tracy Farmer paid $360,000
- #1768 – Cairo Prince colt out of a More Than Ready mare. This is my favorite CP in the sale. Strong 2nd dam. Willing to go $150,000. sold for $70,000
- #461 – Mendelssohn filly out of a Chester House mare. This is one of my favorite broodmare sires. The nick is A++. The Mendelssohn’s did not sell well in Saratoga, maybe we can get a bargain here. Willing to go $150,000. Sold for $320,000
- #550 – Mastery colt by a Street Cry mare. I want to try and steal a Mastery. They have not really run so far, and they did not train or sell at the 2 year old sales. This is a value play for under $150,000. The good folks at Centennial called my bluff and bought this one for $190,000
- #55 – Violence colt out of an AP Indy mare. Just for fun let’s watch one on the first night. This mare produced slow developing Idol. Maybe the cool kids will be bored. willing to go $300,000 or more than 10x the stud fee. Sold for $275,000
There are more like the horses the “big guys” buy, so let’s make the challenge a real challenge
Buying A Race Horse 