Sports Gambling

Prior to writing about buying race horses, I was writing about an intelligent approach to sports gambling. If you have no interest in sports gambling, please ignore this post.

If you want to understand why my favorite sires are Honor Code and Point of Entry, and not the popular Into Mischief and Uncle Mo, then please keep reading.

Here are my favorite teams to have above average “Against the Spread” (ATS) records in 2021. My emphasis is on teams with hidden talent that has yet to be reflected by actual performance. Lots of 3rd year coaches finally getting to play their own recruits.

1. Texas Tech – Coach Matt Wells was the top assistant to ultra-outlaw Gary Anderson at Utah State. This is his 3rd season at TT, he is on the hot seat. Lots of transfers. 7 – 6 ATS
2. UCLA – This is the 4th season for former pro coach Chip Kelly. It is now or never, the alumni are getting restless. 8 – 4 ATS
3. Central Michigan – The 3rd season for former Colorado State and Florida coach Jim McElwain. Big fish is a small pond. Second best recruiting class in the MAC. 7 – 5 ATS
4. Maryland – Coach Locksley was a top recruiter at Alabama, and this is his 3rd year at Maryland. Lots of talent, no results as of yet. 4 – 8 ATS
5. Texas State – Coach Jake Spavital was a top recruiter at Texas A&M. This is his third year in beautiful San Marcos. 7 – 4 ATS
6. North Texas – Coach Littrel has had two bad years after two great years. I am still a believer. Can he find any defensive players? 8 – 3 ATS
7. East Carolina – Coach Mike Houston won two national championships at Division II James Madison. This is his third year with the Pirates. 7 – 3 ATS
8. West Virginia – Coach Neal Brown was the former OC at outlaw programs Texas Tech and Kentucky. At Troy coach Brown beat LSU. Now in his 3rd year at WV. 6 – 7 ATS
9. Florida State – Coach Norvell was a great recruiter at outlaw Memphis. Only in 2nd year at Florida State, but the transfer portal is speeding up the process. 6 – 6 ATS
10. UNLV – Only the 2nd year for coach Marcus Arroyo (assistant at outlaw Oregon), but already had a great recruiting year. 7 – 4 ATS

67 – 50 ATS assuming 10 common games 62 – 45 about 59%

Watching new coaches at: Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, Mich St, Rutgers, Illinois, Arizona, and Colorado.

NFL teams to watch:

1. Denver – 10th best roster, but nobody believes in Drew Lock except me
2. Carolina – Nobody believes in Sam Darnold except me.
3. Arizona – Nobody believes in Kliff Kingsbury, now in his 3rd season. Buy low.

Just for fun, let’s try some British soccer:

1. Wolverhampton Wanderers – second tier team with a new coach that disappointed the last two seasons
2. Brentford Bees – Newly promoted to Premier. Run by a sports gambler Matthew Benham.
3. Blackpool Tangerines – great story about a team with new ownership, newly promoted to The Championship, lots of history
4. Barnsley Tykes – nearly made it to Premier last year. Billy Beane is a shareholder. Moneyball approach.
5. Cheltenham Town Robins – Low budget small town team is its first year in League One
6. Lincoln City Imps – Almost got promoted last year. How can you not cheer for the Imps