Thinking About Quality Road

What would do if I had to buy one horse at this sale for say $350,000? One strategy would be do buy a boring Quality Road. The good ones will sell for more, but maybe I could get the bottom one. I am not sure this is the best strategy, but it would be a reasonable one.

Let’s guess at the price for each Quality Road:

1. #15 – c – G1 winning mare by Uncle Mo, A+ nick, $1,000,000, $500,000 RNA
2. #200 – c – mare of Catholic Boy, A+ nick, $900,000. $685,000 RNA
3. #111 – c – G1 winning Scat Daddy mare, A++ nick $800,000, $700,000, West Point
4. #160 – f – mare of Always Dreaming, D nick, $775,000, $1,000,000
5. #155 – f – full sister to Hootenanny, A++ nick, $750,000, $600,000
6. #93 – f – marginal Deputy Minister mare, A++ nick (Abel Tasman), $600,000, withdrawn
7. #137 – f – G2 winning During mare, A++ nick, $550,000, $600,000
8. #202 – c – solid Curlin mare, A+ nick, $500,000, $475,000
9. #62 – c – unraced Tapit mare, first foal, A nick, $450,000, $250,000
10. #114 – c – ok Malibu Moon mare, $400,000, B+ nick, $800,000
11. #13 – c – very marginal Medaglia d’Oro mare, non-winner, $300,000, A+ nick, $500,000 Starlight

That is where all the great mares are. They are bred to the $150,000 stallions. But two horse do stand out they are #13 and #114. Maybe these will sell for a bargain price. Is that the best way to spend $300,000? It is a high risk strategy, but it is not impossible. I would rather pay $300,000 for a nice City of Light, than a marginal Quality Road. Reasonable people could disagree. Maybe a partnership will buy one of these.

When you actually make a list of horses like this you begin to see why some folk use the “empty mare” strategy. They do not want to pay up for those G1 winners. Let’s see how close I get to guessing the values of the QR’s.

I did a pretty god job of estimating the values. Still surprising to see what the “empty mares” sell for sometimes. #114 and #13 were no bargains. I like the horse West Point bought. The mare, Harmonize, won the Del Mar Oaks, and the nick is A++. Just for fun I will ask what 5% will cost.