Expectations ?

The world be a better place if the sale’s companies went back and published the results of the horses they sold. It takes a little work, but you can do the calculations yourself. so I did.

Since the early Fasig/Tipton July sale was not held last year, let’s review the 2019 version. About 200 horses were sold for a median of $75,000, and an average of $92,000. The results were similar to 2018. In general this seems to be a sale for pinhookers to get an early shot at some of the new sires. There are not the fancy pedigrees you see at the Keeneland September sale.

I started by asking what happens if you buy the median horse?

I took the first 20 horses that sold for $75,000 or $70,000 in 2019 . Here is what I found looking at the results halfway through their 3 year old seasons:

1. of the 20, there were 19 that got names and 3 that got names but never ran. So in my sample you had an 80% chance of getting a runner.
2. the total purse money won so far is about $639,000, or about $40,000/runner (for $75,000 or $70,000 purchase price horses)
3. of the runners, 13 have a race or work in the last 60 days, and two are entered as longshots in this week’s Indiana Derby/Oaks.
4. of the 20, only 3 have earned more than their purchase price
5. only 5 of the 20 ran an Eqibase speed figure of 87 or better (roughly an 80 Beyer)

These are not very exciting results. Let’s remember that in addition to their purchase price the owners would have incurred $30,000 to $60,000 of training expenses, and paid out part of the purses to jockeys/trainers.

I also took a 20 horse sample starting at a $50,000 auction price. The resulst;

1. all 20 got a name, but only 14 (70%) ran a race
2. total purses were about $540,000
3. only 10 of the 20 show a race or work in the last 60 days
4. only 5 of the 20 earned their purchase price (before expenses)
5. only 3 of the 20 ran an Equibase figure of 87 or better

Given the lower purchase prices you can argue the returns were a little better for this group, but certainly not exciting.

In fact you might actually characterize the results as miserable or disastrous. You might argue my sample was to small. I only covered 20% of the horses sold in my 2 samples. Any of these horses could still be stars in their remaining races. Some of the fillies might have some residual value, or maybe some were claimed.

In a perfect world we would know the exact results for the entire sale, and the results for all previous sales. Instead these results are shrouded in mystery. I am sure dozens of bloodstock agents have these numbers, but the general public is left to guess or make their own calculations.

Maybe there were some pinhookers that made money, but not many owners made money from this sale.