The 2 year old in training sales are finally done. I “selected ” 30 horses out of the 5 sales, to go with the 40 I “selected” out of the yearling sales. That is a lot of horses to keep track of, so let’s pause and focus on five horses.
These 5 are the best examples of my stamina oriented strategy that I have called “plodder/plodder”. My emphasis is on stamina, with little attention to speed/precocity. Why? Speed sells at a premium in these sales, and stamina is usually a bargain. I am a cheap, arrogant bastard who spent 30 years searching for “value” stocks, and I am now applying that strategy to horses.
5 Horses to Win the 2022 Kentucky Derby
- American Freedom – Divine Happiness by Divine Park, 5/12 foal – $260,000 – Larry Hirsch
I have become an American Freedom fan. He is a grandson of AP Indy out of a Pleasant Tap mare. He was 2nd to Arrogate in the Travers, and 2nd to Exaggerator in the Haskell. Despite being a $5,000 sire, he offspring have been selling well. The female family brings in Chester House, With Approval, and Hawaii. $260,000 is a crazy price to pay for a son a American Freedom, but Larry Hirsch is an experienced owner. He worked 20.4 in March at Ocala despite being a May 12th foal.
2. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000 – 5/4 foal – Centennial Farm
Honor Code is my favorite sire, and my goal is to recreate his best son Honor AP. I had a nice conversation with Don Little of Centennial Farms about Honor Code and this horse. This horse is a classic “empty mare”. Beat the Drums was a $400,000 yearling buy for Ogden Phipps. She ran two bad races and retired. Her father was the versatile Smart Strike, and her mom was the $2,000,000 Storm Flag Flying. The nick is rated A. $260,000 is a high price for a yearling with a winless mare, but this how the “cool kids” do it. Being a May 4th foal made this horse difficult to pinhook. His name is Videri.
3. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000 – West Point Thoroughbreds
Connect is a son of Curlin that I think can produce decent two turn horses. Maybe he was more of a miler, but he did win the Penn. Derby at 1 1/8 miles. The mare was a solid allowance horse, running a Equibase fig of 106 on her best day. This a a A rated nick, and the same cross that produced Exaggerator.. West Point paid $120,000 and I thought very long about buying 5%, but decided to pass. His name is Derecho Dandy.
4. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000
I am convinced the Cairo Prince will have a good year in 2021/2. This crop is the first year he was bred to better mares. This is certainly one of those better mares. Flying Spur is a daughter of the great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway, and she ran a good 3rd in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. The second dam is the great Lakeway (a daughter of Seattle Slew), winner of 4 G1 route races. The nick is rated A++. Real world buyer Al Fried has won 180 races. Named The Prince’ Spur.
5. Cupid – Silver Sands by El Prado – c – $75,000 – 5/25 – Lewis Lakin
Cupid is a late developing son of Tapit. He did not win at 2, but at 4 he did will at 1 1/4 in the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. The mare won $135,000, and is by the magical El Prado (think Medaglia d’Oro and Kitten’s Joy). The nick is rated A+. This guy worked a quick 10.0 despite being a May 25th foal. Maybe $75,000 is a TGTBT price, or maybe nobody wanted to pay up for a Cupid. Real world owner Lewis Lakin campaigned Pure Clan to a 2nd in the BC Filly &Mare Turf race in 2009.
Five Horses to Win the Kentucky Oaks
- Twirling Candy – f – Breaking Promises by Broken Vow – $125,000 – Barry Schwartz
- Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000
- Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick
- Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick
- Connect – f – CJ’s Gal by Awesome Again, A++ nick, 3/18 – Hidden Brook, $85,000
Buying A Race Horse 