The TGTBT Puzzle

Sometimes you see a price from these sales that is “to good to be true” or TGTBT.

These are horses that have decent pedigrees and above average works that sell for less than say 3x their stud fee. I have tried to avoid these horse when making my selections. For example, last year Eclipse bought a nice looking Mshawish for only $30,000, but when i talked to them they said he had an ankle chip that needed surgery. It was a minor operation, but it would delay racing at least 4 months.

This all sounds good in theory, but now I face the problem in the real world

Hip #316 sold today for just $20,000. The filly worked an above average 10.2. The sire is Ironicus (a son of Distorted Humor) that just had Helium win the Tampa Bay Derby, and finish a respectable 8th in the Kentucky Derby.

This is a horse I was interested in before the sale. In fact, in my very first post I mentioned my interest in Ironicus.

As soon as I saw that price I thought, TGTBT, but then 30 minutes later I learned the real world buyer were my friends at Pewter Stables. My first reaction is that the price is TGTBT, but maybe it is just a bargain. Ironicus is certainly not a popular sire, in fact he could be considered 4th tier if not for Helium’s success. Ironicus is a sire I started following last year because his mare is by AP Indy.

I will talk to the folks at Pewter next week to get the story.

12 horses that work 10.2 were RNAed

96. horses that worked 10.2 sold for more than $20,000, some for as high as $450,000

5 horses that worked 10.2 sold for exactly $20,000

5 horses that worked 10.2 sold for less than $20,000

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Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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