Purse Money Analysis

Last year I mythically “bought” 20 horses from the Ocala sale for about $1,041,000. My guess was those horses would earn $500,000 in purses over the next year. Let’s see how that worked out.

I was a little low. Through May 10th the group has earned $898,000 in purses.

West Point and Eclipse also paid about $1,035,000 and earned $473,000 in purses.

1. Macleans Music – c – Provincial by Pulpit #303 – 4/21 – sf 92 – 6 w – 10.1 -$47 – named Mr. Cline, working at Arlington, has not raced
2. Bayern – c – Jera by Jeblar #1205 -3/11 – sf 93 – 6 w – stk wn – 20.4 – $100 – named Cane Creek Road, 4th Churchill MC, earnings $29,000
3. Carpe Diem – c – All Star Heart by by Arch #716 – 3/30 -sf 115 – 3 w – 10.2 -$40 – named Starship Skywalker, not working, has not raced
4. Point of Entry – f -Mountain Mambo by Mt. Livermore #162-4/18 – 99 -6w-21.1-$65 – named Avisse, 3rd in MSW at Del Mar, O’Neil, earnings $38,000
5. Mshawish – f – Rahaf by Street Cry #326 – 2/19 – unraced – 21.2 – $30 – Named Risky Reward, winner MSW at Churchill, Walsh, earnings $84,000
6. Summer Front – f – Empress of Gold by Empire Maker #997 – 2/28 -3w- 21.2 – $35 – named Shea D Summer, small stake winner at Gulfstream, earnings $75,000
7. Tapiture – f – Its Heidi’s Dance by Green Dance #1195 – 3/12 – 102 -7 – 21.2 – $17 – named Tap Dance Fever, 3rd at Delaware MC, Bennett, working at Tampa, earnings $18,000
8. Ironicus – f – Sotique by Henndssy #485 – 2/20 – sf 91 – 2nd f – 10.1- $47 – named Quick Gold, working at Tampa Bay, has not run
9. We Miss Artie – c – Reggae Rose by Touch Gold #351 – 4/19 – 104 – 4 w – 21.1- $30 – named Whatmakessammyrun, winner at Belmont, Weaver, earnings $92,000
10. Bodemeister – c – Tipsy by Kitten’s Joy #589 – 3/2 – sf 95 – 0 w -21.0 – $20 – named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd in MSW at Woodbine, Earnings $19,000
11. Wicked Strong – c – Riviera Chic by Medaglia de Oro #359 – 1/20 – 96 -2w -10.2 -$6 – named Brooklyn Strong, winner of small stake at Belmont, winner of the Remsen, 15th in the Derby, Earnings $225,000
12. Macleans Music – f – Raving About You by Arch #334 – 2/4 -sf 78 – 0w-21.0 – $110 – named Midnight Choir, 4th at Belmont, Thomas, earnings $5,000
13. Street Sense – c – Raising Dakota by War Chant – #327 -4/12 – sf 93 -1w 21.2 – $20 – named Rittenhouse, working at Monmouth, working at Parx, has not run
14. Liam’s Map – f – Real Tizzy by Tiznow #339 – 4/9 – unraced – 2nd f – 21.4 – $25 – named Wham Bam Shrimp , Zacney Racing, working at Parx, has not raced
15. Malibu Moon – c – Dixie Song by Fusaichi Pegasus #971-4/2-unr-1w -21.1 – $200 – named Chaos Reigns, Ellis, working at SA, earnings $6,000
16. Tourist – c – Jor Jah by Street Sense #1216 – 2/13 – 93 – 0w – 10.3 – $6 – unnamed
17. Tourist – f – Joyance by Pulpit #1217 – 4/11 – 93 – 4w – 10.3 – $15 -, Mike’s Lady, 4th at Hawthorne, Reavis, earnings $2,000
18. Frosted – c – Darling Daughter by Marias Mon #944 -3/3- 98 – 4w- 10.1 – $65 – named Jeebar, bullet at Gulfstream, earnings $18,000
19. Dialed In – c – Fancier by Bernstein #1019 – 4/14 – 75 – 0w – 21.0 – $47 – named Get Her Number, winner G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita, earnings $276,000
20. Violence – f – Pi Bella by Pioneering #258 – 4/16 – 92 – 2w – 21.2 – $125 – named Nurturing, 6th at Del Mar, earnings $11,000

Let’ compare to what West Point and Eclipse bought:

1. (WP) Jaxon Traveler – Munning’s – Listen Boy – $140,000 – winner MSW + allowance at Laurel., small stake at Oaklawn, $271,000
2. (WP) King’s Ovation – Not This Time – Karen’s Silk -$200,000 – winner MSW Churchill, $77,000
3. (WP) Silver Streak – Ironicus – Pic Three Bertie – $45,000 – working at Fair Hill, has not run
4. (EC) McCovey Cove – California Chrome – Sky Glow – $200,000 – not working, has not run
5. (EC) Surplus – Fed Biz – Chestnut Moon -$47,000 – not working, has not run
6. (EC) Exact – Competitive Edge – Thisizsparta – $82,000 – 2nd at Belmont, $63,000
7. (EC) Nuturing – Violence – Pi Bella – $125,000 – 6th at Del Mar, $11,000
8. (EC) Dutchess of Shire – Flintshire – Anaaba – $47,000- not working, not running
9. (EC) Cadencia – Mshawish – Tango Time – 115,000 – 2nd at Belmont, $51,000

West Point and Eclipse spent $1,035,000 on 9 horses.

I spent $1,041,000 on 20 horses. You make the comparison.

If I did not write this all down, absolutely no one would believe me. This is certainly a very small sample and a very short time frame. I know from 30 years of evaluating performance numbers of portfolio managers that short-term results can be misleading.

On the other hand, Warren Buffett alway said that he had a distinct advantage of working in Omaha, rather being in the center of the Wall Street maelstrom. My picks were made without seeing the horses, or getting an advice from experts.