What if I really was going to buy hip #88 today?
This is a nice son of Air Force Blue. AFB was a freshmen sire last year and his average colt sold for $90,000 (fillies were $50,000) at the 2 year old sales. But when no star offspring showed up last year the bloom came of the rose very quickly. In 2019 the average colt yearling sold for $120,000, but by September of last year the average plummeted to $50,000. Is AFB already a failed son of War Front, or is it too early to tell?
I really like the mare here. She is a daughter of Kingmambo (sire of the great Lemon Drop Kid. The mare produced a $500,000 winner in Kitten’s Point. She also produced a colt that set a NCR going 2 1/4 miles in a jump race. To me that is a major positive, I guess Cox/Crow would not be impressed. The second dam is an unraced sister of the great Marquetry.
The consigner is a 60 year woman named Gayle Woods. She brings only 4 horses to the sale. She was born in England and has a breaking and training operation in Ocala. Is she related to Eddie Woods? I would rather buy from a small operation like this, rather than a consigner with 20+ horses. The horse did sell as a yearling.
Two AFB’s sold in the March sale. One with a junky 22.2 work went for $20,000, and another with a 21.3 went for $47,000 (a 10.0 work was RNAed for $90,000).
The first question is what price would be TGTBT? If the hammer fell at $30,000 would I be happy or sad? Greed says I should be happy, but common sense says I should be concerned.
I guess I would be very content to pay $50,000. This seems like a fair price and comparable to the March sale. There are 4 other AFB’s in the sale with two 10.1, a 10.3, and another 21.2.
Would I bid up to $75,000? I think I would. I might try to wait for #882, but a “bird in hand, is better than a bird in the bush”
Would I bid up to $100,000? That is a tough question. My experience in the stock market tells me have a strong price discipline, but should I go the extra $25,000 or have to live with my 2nd or 3rd choice for the next few years. A horse is not a stock you can sell two weeks later.
For the sake of this imaginary exercise let’s say I will go to $100,000 and not penny more (ok, let’s go to $105,000).
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Another horse to consider is #29. I do think that Exaggerator is a top 20 sire in my rankings, but I am willing to consider him. The work was 10.1, which is pretty impressive for a slow moving turf oriented horse. The nick is rated A++. The horse was RNAed for $67,000 as a yearling.
Maybe it is just silly to try to buy this horse for under $50,000. Again I might go to $75,000, but not to $100,000. This horse has less upside, but also less downside.
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#144 is a very conventional daughter of Liam’s Map. The Tapit mare is solid, but not spectacular. The work was 10.1. The nick is A++, think Colonel Liam.
Would be a bargain for $150,000, but might pay up to $300,000.
This is a just for fun exercise, but let’s see what happens. There are 3 CL’s with faster works later in the sale, maybe we can strike early. This is an attempt to play with the “cool kids”.
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What will it cost to buy a 10.0 work? We will see with hip #175 by Dialed In. To me a realistic price would be $200,000. A Dialed In wining the Arkansas Derby will effect this price. Let’s see if it gets crazy.
Another 10.0 work is #187 by Cupid. I love the El Prado mare, but I wish I did not have to pay for the work. Maybe this horse is a bargain at $150,000? There are 20 other Cupid’s to choose from, including a 20.2 work
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Marginal ideas are #167 by Keen Ice, #31 by Violence, #256 by Noble Mission, #273 by Midnight Storm, #52 by American Freedom.
These are all marginal horses that might be worth up to $50,000
Buying A Race Horse 