What Would Be the Perfect Horse?

If I were going to invest in 2 year olds, rather than yearlings, what would I like to see?

SIRE

This is the most important variable. I would like to a horse from my list of most undervalued sires. Right now that list is

1. Honor Code
2. Point of Entry
3. Twirling Candy
4. Midnight Storm
5. Gormley
6. Cairo Prince
7. Connect
8. American Freedom
9. Mr. Speaker
10. Tonalist
11. Unified

Then is a list of sires I would consider:

Liam’s Map, Classic Empire, Violence, Frosted, Mastery, Union Rags, plus about 20 more.

Then there is a list of sires I have no interest in:

Into Mischief, Uncle Mo, and many other “popular” sires.

BROODMARE SIRE

Even if I liked the sire, any horse would have to have a broodmare sire that brings some stamina to the table.

If the broodmare sire is sprint oriented, I would consider a mare that was a decent router, or has produced two turn progeny.

THE MARE HERSELF

I would prefer a mare that actually ran herself, but would consider and unraced mare with a good pedigree.

I would prefer a mare that ran Equibase Figs of over 90 (I would prefer Beyers, but they are often not available). I will consider slow mares that are well bred.

I would prefer a mare that ran at least 10 times, but would accept one that had a short career if she was well bred.

I would prefer a mare that ran successfully over a mile, but would consider one that was bred to run long.

The EXTENDED FAMILY

I would prefer a horse where the 2nd dam was well bred for stamina, and/or was a successful runner. This is “nice to have”, but not required.

OTHER FACTORS

I would prefer to have a horse with a B+ or better TruNicks rating, but this is not required. Nicks are less important for younger sires, where there is less history.

I would prefer a mare bred and/or raced by respected connections, but this is not required.

I would prefer to buy from a smaller consigner, but this is not required.

I would prefer to buy a April or May foal (to keep the price down), but this is not required.

Being eligible for state bred racing is a plus, but certainly not required.

Right now I am very skeptical about first foals.

WORKOUT

I want to buy horses with average, or slightly above average, work times.

I would prefer a 2f work, but understand that many prefer a 1f work with a strong runout.

The top works are either too expensive, or if they are affordable must have some physical issues. The exception to this rule might be for very unpopular sires.

PRICE

The sweet spot is 3-4x the stud fee for mid-priced stallions, less for high prices stallions, and 5-10x multiples for $5,000 stallions.

I think you have to be careful of paying “too little”. Horses with great “fundamentals” that sell for 1-2x the stud fee should be considered TGTBT (to good to be true)

CONCLUSION

If you wait to buy the perfect horse, you will never buy a horse. Every horse will have some less than desirable characteristics.

For example let’s consider the horse Get Her Number who recently finished a fast closing 4th in the Arkansas Derby:

Dialed In was not my favorite sire, but he was acceptable. He was in my top 20

Bernstein is not my favorite broodmare sire, but the 2nd and 3rd dam were very good (Fusaichi Pegasus and Irish River). The third dam was second in a French G1.

The mare tried 10 times and never ran better than 75 Equibase fig, and earned $30,000. Her first foal had won $3,000. This was her second foal.

The nick was A+, and he was an April foal.

He worked an above average 21.0, only 30 horses worked better than 21.0, out of about 150 that tried 2f

This horse sold 2.35x the stud fee of $20,000.

Was Get Her Number the perfect horse? He was not. There were positives and negatives.

He was by a decent stamina sire, with a well above average female family, with a good nick rating. He only sold for 2.35x.

Relative to the other horses available, he was a solid choice. He has won $276,000, a G1 at Santa Anita, and he could still win the Belmont or Travers.