March Ocala, Day 1 Summary

Prices were up sharply. The average was up to $114,000 from $90,000 last year and the median was up to $62,000 from $50,000.

Prices were up 25% despite the fact that the quality of the horses declined. Last year I think some horses came to this sale because they knew the Gulfstream sale would be canceled. This year the Gulfstream “select” sale was expanded to 186 horses.

Maybe the quality of horses improved because sellers wanted to sell while the stock market remains at all-time highs. I do not buy this explanation.

I was very surprised by some of the prices paid for horses that worked 10.1. Even with the Korean buyers not participating, the low end of the market was very strong. The buyback rate fell from roughly 40% to an almost unheard of 20%. It seems there were also fewer “mysterious withdrawals”, not counted in the buyback statistics.

In short, folks got tired of sitting at home and just wanted to buy something – anything!

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I was thrilled with my 2 “selections”.

I got a 10.0 (top 20%) work for less than the median price paid. Not everyone is a Shaman Ghost fan, I understand. I was excited by the real buyer being the same guys (D.J. Stables) who are going to the Kentucky Derby with a $55,000 son of Ironicus (Helium).

#179 -c – Shaman Ghost – Repossee by Officer – foaled 5/9 – $45,000

I would prefer more stamina pedigree on the dam side, but Officer was a son of Bertrando who set a new track record at 1 1/4 miles in the G1 Pacific Classic. The 2nd dam is by Tale of the Cat, who was more of a sprinter, but did run a Equibase fig of 117 is the 1 1/8 mile G1 Whitney Handicap.

The photo of this horse shouts “two turns”, so I will live with that.

I was also get my daughter of Lea that worked 10.1 for only $20,000. Here the dam adds Flower Alley, Theatrical, and Seattle Slew. The mare ran a solid 94 Equibase fig at 1 1/16 miles for Ken McPeek.

#195 – f – Lea – Sassys Dream by Flower Alley – 3/14 foal – $20,000

The real world buyer is SAB Stable, they are a solid 9 for 42 in Maryland. I know this horse is not exciting, but neither was Brooklyn Strong.

I could not find either a $100,000 or $200,000 horse I really like because i would pay $210,000 for the son of Midshipman #178 that I really liked.

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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