Final Results, and the Puzzle

Last year there were 20% more horses, but only 10 worked 9.4, and only 45 worked 10.0.

Was the track faster this year? It it possible this was a better group of horses?

Let’s remember that the stock market was down 20% in the month preceding last year’s sale. However, we must also remember that the Gulfstream sale had been canceled. Where did those good horses go? My guess is they went to Ocala June or Timonium.

My best guess is that this might just be a better group of horses. However, it is entirely possible that the track was was faster, and it is only an illusion the horse are “better than last year”. Either conclusion is reasonable.

Last year only 55 horses had premium works (9.4 or 10.0), this year that number is 108.

The real puzzle is what to do with the 10.1’s. Recall that these times are not rounded a 10.1, a 10.1 could be 10.10 or 10.19. There is a big difference. It could be a top 33% work, or it be top 60 work. That is a wide range.

Another puzzle is how to view the 2 furlong works. Last year even the 21.3’s sold for a median of $100,000.

This years results:

1. 27 ran 9.4 – 8%
2. 81 ran 10.0 – 24%
3. 93 ran 10.1 – 27%
4. 84 ran 10.2 – 24%
5. 58 ran 10. 3 or worse – 17%

1. 3 ran 20.2
2. 4 ran 20.3
3. 13 ran 20.4
4. 10 ran 21.0
5. 16 ran 21.1
6. 8 ran 21.2
7. 11 ran 21.3
8. 12 ran 21.4
9. 8 ran 22.0
10. 6 ran 22.1
11. 7 ran 22.2
12. 7 ran 22.4 or worse

343 (76%) went 1 furlong, 110 went 2 furlongs