Handicapping ???

I have always played with the idea of writing a handicapping blog. Since I have some time before the 2 year old sales start in March, I might experiment with some different formats here.

My focus will be on the races selected for tournaments at Horseplayer.com. Below is an 8 race qualifying tournament (like a poker satellite) at Gulfstream. The format is a $2 win/place bet, top 10% qualify.

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

Selection:

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 4 (12/13/20)

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

B #8 – strange selection by morning line maker, not logical on turf, or with Beyers, looking for others,

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A -F)

C #2 – solid MC 40 winner, well bred for sprinting, working steady since win, Fawkes decent 15% guy, ok but not exciting

D #% – want to learn more about Darien Rodriquez, 20% but mainly at Tampa

Selection: #2, hope to get 4-1

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 5

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #3 – $12,0000 FTS is TGTBT (to good to be true), never trust bullet works in MC events, not a Georgina Baxter fan

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly?

B #8 – normally I hate these “get out of my barn” (Chad to Fawkes) horses, but this one might have a large pace advantage, and the owners are smart guys that have won graded stakes races, so this looks like a “crafty” drop, they paid $90,000 at Ocala for this Speightster

C #5 – Nick Gonzales was down about 50% in purses won this year, need to know more

Selection: #8

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 6

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

F #5 – love the Kentucky sire in a Florida bred race, Clement has been great with FTS, maybe #7 will be favorite and I can get 5/2

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

D #9 – always watch Dennis manning for long shots

D #3 – Michelle Nihei, or actually Dr. Nehei, is always worth a look on turf

Selection: #5

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 7

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #6 – trainer of favorite is 2 for 67 this year

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #4 – Nicks is ok I this kind of spot, #1 or #7 reasonable alternatives, everybody else a 5%er

D #7 – Hit some good Amador Sanchez last year, but he has cooled, I want to learn more, gets Junior Alvarado, Kitten’s joy sprinting ???

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 8

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

A #7 – favorite is a former Navarro horse, and a claim from Asmussen, double pass, this horse might not finish

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #4 – wish I could find a bomber, but stuck with solid 2nd choice, love the Hard Spun’s on turf

D #9 – Casse is not my favorite long shot guy, but this horse is decent

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

Gulfstream race 9

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

C. #6 – always against Larry Bates (long story), coming out of slow Florida bred race

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

#4 – not a good idea to try and run with Nashvile

#2 – what will Sanchez do with Chilean import?

Selection: #4

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 10

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

C #5 – nothing the matter with Maker here, just do not like the price

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

C #2 – Brittany bombed a long shot at Saratoga this summer, so I will play her young improving horse here. Might get the lead and forget to stop

D #7 – Steve Klesaris is always worth thinking about, think this horse wants longer

Selection: #2

Post Mortem:

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Gulfstream race 11

Are the favorites vulnerable? (A – F)

B #3 – Maker horse was solid, but did not run the par at Calder

Which horse is most likely to improve unexpectedly? (A – F)

A #6 – thought briefly about buying part of this horse in an Eclipse partnership, they paid a lot for a Dominus, but they love his athleticism, grass should be ok, love the blinkers

C #11 – Trombetta ok 2nd time starters, adding blinkers, let’s try another Speightster

Selection: #6, inside info here, but I scratch into the 3, but got bored and found #11,

Post Mortem:

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Summary

These races have about average difficulty. There are favorites to hate, but not a lot of good long shots. Maybe I should be more conservative and not play 10-1+ in the last two races, but I can’t resist.

My prediction is the average win/show price will be $10/$5 = $15 and that it will take $45 to qualify ($32 is breakeven, $4 x 8 races)

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