Masterpiece ???

The list below is my attempt at a masterpiece. It is the culmination of what I have learned in the last 6 months.

There is an 85% chance it is no more than the crayon scribblings of a three year old with his first coloring book.

There is a 15% chance the list is a semi-competent attempt to transfer my 30+ years of investment analysis skills to the market for young horses. You have to start somewhere.

Author Malcom Gladwell estimated that you need 10,000 hours of practice to achieve “world class competence” in a particular subject. I would estimate that I am 500 hours into that journey. Maybe my 20+ years of watching horse races would also count, but I really do not think so. This is a very complex business that requires a great deal of specific knowledge.

My first post had a list of 7 sires that i was interested in. From that starting point my strategy grew and evolved.

These are the main components of my strategy:

1. The final list has 20 different sires that is representative of what I think are the best values in the marketplace. You will notice there are no Into Mischief’s or Uncle Mo’s. My focus is on value, not finding the best horse without regard to price. I usually try to stay in the range of 2x to 4x the stud fee.
2. About half of the list are my plodder/plodder or stamina/stamina horses, that I still think are the best value in the marketplace. No sprinters in here.
3. I think 5 of the sires are my attempt to take advantage of current market conditions where these sires have fallen “out of favor” — Lemon Drop Kid, Frosted, Union Rags, Cairo Prince, and Bernardini.
4. I think 5 of the horses are my attempt to use my version of of the Cox/Crow “miler stretching out” concept — Practical Joke, Unified, Mastery, Hard Spun, and Connect.
5. All of the horses have solid female families. I am looking for “sneaky good” pedigrees, not G1 winners. The dam is either a decent runner or producer, and preferably both. If the first dam is is relatively unaccomplished, then the second dam is strong. There are no “empty mares” like many of the Starlight horses. There are no first foals.
6. The price range is $140,000 to $24,000, with an average of about $60,000. This is a step below where the “big guys” play, but not the “bargain basement” either.
7. 15 of the nicks are B+ or better, but a few of the pedigrees are more experimental.
8. I prefer April or May foals to discourage the pinhookers, but it is not a requirement. 11 are April or May foals.
9. Only 3 are clear turf horses, another 3 have a chance to turf. I would like to find more turf horses, but I could not pedigrees that I really liked.

My 20 favorite yearlings of 2020:

1. Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, c – 2/17, $40,000 – I wrote an entire post on this horse on 10/15/2020. I think the sire in undervalued, and the dam is exactly what I am looking for. The nick is A+. This horse moved to the top of my list after talking to the Centennial folks about Honor Code. Buyer = S. Schwartz
2. Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – f – 5/31, $35,000 – A++ nick, – My favorite freshman sire is Midnight Storm. He was durable, and was a source of stamina on dirt and turf. The dam and 2nd dam were solid producers, and the 2nd dam was by Hansel. The late birthday keeps the pinhookers away. buyer = John Davison
3. Lemon Drop Kid – Gotcha Last by Pleasant Tap – c – 4/18, $40,000 – A++ nick, – The more I thought about, the more I like the idea of LDK. He is the ultimate old, boring sire. The mare was a solid runner, and produced two million dollar winners, including freshman sire American Freedom. buyer = Black Stone Farm
4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – c – 4/11. $100,000 – I though Classic Empire would be too expensive, but this one is too good to pass up. The mare by the great Kingmambo was 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, and the 2nd dam is by the stamina sire Strawberry Road. The nick is a D, but I just have to try this stamina combination. Buyer = John Oxley, named Classic King
5. Point of Entry – Quiet Royal by Royal Academy – c – 5/7 – $65,000 – A++ nick, – The dam was multiple graded stakes placed, and produced a graded winner by Dynaformer. Lots of fancy Euro-pedigree in the 2nd dam. My favorite turf horse.
6. Cairo Prince – Flying Spur by Giant’s Causeway – c – 2/13, $60,000 – Cairo Prince produced some good horses from below average mares. Now he is getting better mares, like this one that was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. The 2nd dam won 4 grade 1’s, and $965,000. The nick is a A. buyer = Al Fried
7. Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – c – 5/9, $60,000 – B+ nick – Gormley is my favorite new speed sire. The dam produced 6 solid runners from 7 foals, and is by top broodmare sire Pleasant Tap. buyer = 5 O’Clock Somewhere
8. Bernardini – Composing by Touch Gold – f – 4/26 – $60,000, A nick. The mix of an AP Indy sire with a Storm Cat mare is classic breeding. The 2nd dam in multiple G1 winner Lazy Slusan. Taking advantage of Bernardini falling “out of favor”, buyer = Jerry Romans
9. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – c – 2/4, $120,000 – A nick, This is the best idea from any partnership. I was very close to buying 5% from West Point. Connect is an interesting freshman sire (a son of Curlin) and Vindication adds Seattle Slew blood. This is the same cross as Exaggerator. buyer = West Point
10. Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini, – f – 3/10, $50,000 – B+ nick, – This is my second best turf horse. Bernardini is a top quality broodmare sire and the second dam was an amazing stamina producer by Affirmed. Buyer = WSS Racing

Second 10, a little more speed, a little less stamina:

1. Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – c – 5/12, $50,000 – nick C+ – Unified is more of a miler (a son of Candy Ride), but we add plenty stamina on the dam side, unraced AP Indy mare, but the 2nd dam was $1,000,000 winner of the Personal Ensign, Balletto, and the 3rd and 4th dams were graded winners. This is a Cox/Crow type of horse.
2. Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – f – 2/1, $60,000, nick D – This is my attempt to recreate Union Rags. Their is bunch of stamina pedigree in the 2nd dam by G3 placed daughter of Dynaformer. Mare won a small stake at Santa Anita, and produced a G3 placed winner of $200,000.
3. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker – c – 2/19 – $140,000, Donegal, B+ nick – There is lots of stamina pedigree (Nureyev and Alleged) in the dam. Donegal gave him a nice write up. Great “heart score”
4. Union Rags – Wait Til Dawn by Giant’s Causeway – f – 2/27- $75,000 – A+ nick, – The dam won $100,000. The 2nd dam by Thunder Gulch is a sister to Spain. The same cross as Free Drop Billy
5. Practical Joke – Be Fair by Exchange Rate – c – 1/26 – $80,000 – The nick is an A. This is another Union Rags attempt, the dam was a solid distance horse, and the 2nd dam produced $1,000,000 router Macho Again.
6. Connect – Happy Clapper – $50,000, A++ nick, 3/12 – Dam won $200,000 and produced a $100,000 winner, 2nd dam by Cozzene
7. Frosted – Settling for Gold by Seeking the Gold – f – 4/12 – $100,000 – nick C – Mare won at Delaware. The second dam by Pleasant Colony is the producer of Tonalist. Frosted was “on sale”.
8. Tonalist –Holiday Girl by Harlan’s Holiday – $42,000, 3/17 – nick A++ – This is a Liz Crow idea. Mare is a $100,000 winner and producer of two $100,000 winners. Same Cross as Tonalist’s Shape.
9. Tapiture – Sotique by Hennessy – $60,000 – 2/4 – nick B+ – The mare made $150,000 for Mark Kellar, who has bought some good stamina horses
10. Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – c – 4/27 – $27,000 – nick A – Bought by Antonio Sano who also bought another Dialed In colt named Guenavara.

Just for fun let’s also do a group of 20 that averages $30,000, but goes no higher than $40,000. This might be a more realistic price point for a first time buyer.

1. Point of Entry – Jazz Time by Dixieland Band -$15,000 – nick A – 2nd dam won $800,000 and two G1 races.
2. American Freedom – Purple Rose by El Prado – f – 4/5, $24,000 – American Freedom is a grandson of AP Indy. I love the stamina pedigree of the dam. The 2nd dam was runner up in the Personal Ensign. The nick is an A. buyer = Cool Hill Farm
3. Gormley – Beautifulballerina by Nureyev – 4/23 – $33,000 – nick A++ – Second dam by Affirmed. Adding maximum stamina to Gormley with this dam.
4. Orb – Place of Honor by First Samurai- 2/10 -$29,000, the second dam is $1,500,000 winner My Flag, dam produced $300,000 winner, B+ nick, My favorite from my “dirty dozen” out of favor sires.
5. Midnight Storm – Soft Wind by Flatter – 4/3 – $35,000 – A++ nick – First and second dam were winners and producers. Adding AP Indy for stamina.
6. Midnight Storm – Miss Montreal – $39,000 – 2/6 – nick B+ – sneaky good mare that ran 111 eqibase fig going a mile on the turf at Gulfstream. Ex Indiana QB Antowne Randal El is the buyer.
7. Shamen Ghost – Guanahani by Pleasant Tap – 4/30 – $25,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced two winners. New sire with lots of stamina added to a stamina mare. The ultimate plodder/plodder.
8. Honor Code – Big Move – $27,000 -2/18 – Mare won $150,000 and is a granddaughter of Dynaformer. This horse might go 2 miles!
9. Point of Entry – Soother by Rahy – $40,000 – A++ nick – Mare produced two $300,000 winners.
10. Air Force Blue – High Maintenance by Danehill – c – 4/18 – $35,000 – Ironhorse – A very solid Danehill mare. She was G3 placed and produced a $400,000 winner.
11. Keen Ice – Peace Price – $37,000 – B+ nick – Dam produced a $300,000 winner that finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes.
12. American Freedom – Never Quicker by Hennessy – c – 2/10 – $37,000 – nick A – Classic cross of AP Indy and Storm Cat. Mare was a winner and produced a $200,000 winner.
13. Orb – Brusquer by Elusive Quality – $17,000 – 2/6 – nick A++ – Dam was a winner, 2nd dam produced Tapit, 3rd dam by Nijinsky. Travis Murphy takes a shotClassic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt.
14. Classic Empire – Sweet Invention by Twirling Candy – $40,000 Global Equine – Dam won $75,000, and 2nd dam produced Klimt.
15. Connect – Exclusive Woman (99) by Cat Thief – $20,000 – B+ nick – Dam by won $100,000 and produced a $140,000 winner. 2nd dam by Dynaformer, 3rd dam by Affirmed, how much more stamina can you get?
16. Hard Spun – Veela by Bartok, $30,000, Hoppel’s Horse, A++ nick dam won $60,000, and produced a $300,000 graded stakes winner.
17. Maclean’s Music – Reggae Rose – $20,000 – nick A – Dam won $150,000 and produced a $500,000 winner, 2nd dam by Dynaformer produced a $300,000 winner
18. Astern – Thunder Way by Thunder Gulch -$21,000 – 2/20 – nick A – Maybe Astern can be stretched of if you add Thunder Gulch. Mare was a winner and producer.
19. Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – 2/11 – $15 – Same cross as Exaggerator, 2nd dam won 800,000 and multiple graded races.
20. Anchor Down – Lemon Secretary by Lemon Drop Kid – 3/8 – $10 – nick B+ – Dam produced an $80,000 winner that was graded stakes placed, and the 2nd dam is full sister to stamina sire Perfect Soul.