What Would You Expect?

The previous post lists 70 horses that were bought at yearling sales in 2019 by Ten Strike, Donegal, Starlight, Eclipse, West Point, and Centennial. The average price is roughly $230,000. In bold are their racing achievements so far.

1 (1%) has won a G1 Stakes race, and a listed stake (Gretzky the Great) at Woodbine

13 (19%) have won maiden races, and 2 of those have won an allowance races as well

14 (20%) have run without winning

17 (24%) have at least one published work in the last 60 days, but have not raced

25 (36%) have no published works in the last 60 days

I guess I would have expected a higher winning percentage for such expensive horses, that are generally bred to win early. I certainly would not have expected 36% to have no works. Maybe the risks of buying yearlings is higher than I realize.

Maybe COVID has had a greater effect than most realize, and everything is just delayed a few months Maybe everyone is developing their horses more slowly. Or maybe the partnerships just did not buy a good bunch of horses.

Postscript:

A Bloodhorse article said that through the end of October, two year old races were down 20% from the prior year. The same article said the delays at training centers had slowed the progress of some young horses.

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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