Fantasy Horse Racing

Here is the fantasy horse racing game I am proposing:

  1. pick 4 horses from the Keeneland 2020 yearling sale
  2. the total paid cannot exceed $1,250,000
  3. the least expensive horse can be $100,000
  4. you cannot choose a horse selected by a major partnership operations
  5. the winner is the most purse money in Grade 1 races for the next 3 seasons (2021, 2022, and 2023)

This is a competition to build “high upside” horses, not horses that will have a high rate of return, or achieve sire status. It makes you think about the best strategy to achieve that goal. Here was my process:

  1. Of all the top $100,000+ sires my favorite remains Pionnerof the Nile, there are about 10 to choose from
  2. I want a mare that adds stamina, and was a solid runner, and a solid producer. Others might choose different criteria. What would you choose?
  3. I choose hip #440 for $450,000. The mare Temple Street was twice graded stakes placed, and has produced an $800,000 winner and a $400,000 winner. She adds stamina influences Street Cry, Machiavellean, AP Indy, and Pleasant Colony to the pedigree.
  4. To balance out my slightly expensive horse I need a “sleeper”. Here I choose #2695 for. just $100,000, a son of Classic Empire (a grandson of Pioneer of the Nile). The mare Miss Mambo ran 3rd in the G1 Thousand Guineas, and also produced two $150,000 winners (one of those winners also produced $1,000,000 winner Gormley). On the pedigree side she adds stamina through Kingmambo, Strawberry Road and Vaguely Noble. That leaves $700,000 for the last two horses.
  5. Of the new sires I have to try Arrogate. Since Arrogate was not precocious I think you get some value here. Most folks are trying to add speed/precocity to Arrogate, but being an arrogant bastard I will want to add stamina. Here I find #1581 for $350,000. The mare Star Act is by Street Cry and won $150,000, but second dam is a $1,000,000 winner by the great Dynaformer, the mare Starrer. This is the ultimate plodder/plodder that pinhookers and breeders hate. I am still searching for the next Barbaro (a son of Dynaformer).
  6. That gives me 3 great sires, with running and producing mares with great stamina families. I have $350,000 left for my last horse.
  7. I was interested to learn the story of the “unicorn” Union Rags. The only horse precocious enough to win the Champagne Stakes, but with enough stamina to win the Belmont Stakes. This is Union Rag’s sixth crop and pinhookers/breeders are getting bored. I select #990 for $350,000. The mare is by the great broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway. She won $150,000 herself, and produced two $500,000 winners. The 2nd dam is $1,500,000 winner of 6 graded stakes races, Gold Mover.

This will be a fun group to follow:

  1. Pioneerof the Nile – Temple Street by Street Cry – $450,000
  2. Arrogate – Star Act by Street Cry – $350,000
  3. Union Rags – Giant Mover by Giant’s Causeway – $350,000
  4. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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