When you get old you will find that you start dozing off at 9:30pm, and then waking up at 4:00am. To pass the time you start handicapping the Monday races at Parx.
This is my entry into a contest at HorsePlayers.com. The event is a qualifier (or satellite in poker terms) for a NHC qualifier on Friday. In this event 20% of the field get a $75 entry into the Friday qualifier (the cost of this event is $18, but you get the PP’s for free). The contest is 8 races with a $2 mythical win/place on each race. All choices are made by first post, often called Pick & Pray.
This will be an example of how breeding knowledge can help your handicapping.
This will also be my first attempt at writing a handicapping website. I have played with this idea for a few years, but never got started.
Let’s summarize my handicapping in a few bullet points:
- Why is this horse in this race today? This is the question posed in a chapter by the great author and handicapper Steve Davidowitz. You must understand the conditions of the race, and how that effects each competitor. In a way you might call this “owner handicapping.”
- Can I find a trainer in this race that the public does not fully appreciate? The great author and handicapper Mark Cramer wrote an excellent book called Kinky Trainers. I am not looking for the “best” trainer, but rather the trainer that is often under bet.
- Which horse is most likely to improve? This is the question I ask before every race. I rely heavily on the work of the incomparable Len Ragozin. In a great old series of cassette tapes he explained the patterns of thoroughbred performance better than any other handicapping resource.
I also believe in choosing your races very carefully. Here is the system I will use.
A = my best idea, usually a strong trainer/owner angle
B = solid idea, a solid idea or a bad favorite I want to take a shot against
C = C is for crazy, this is a separate category of idea that do not fit my normal patten, but are worth thinking about
D = are race I have no strong opinion about, or cannot find any longshot angle
F = I like the favorite, but fear he will be over-bet
Parx – Race 3 – $40,000 MC – (everything is dirt and wet conditions are expected)
A = #5 One Niner Tango – On the surface the trainer has not won a race at the meet, but she was 15% in 2019 and 2018. This horse shows as sold at Keeneland September yearling sale in 2018 for $60,000. In fact it was RNAed for that price by “dirty rotten” owner/breeders, White Fox Farms. They kept the horse and ae racing it themselves. This is a son of Competitive Edge that Eclipse guys think is a great sprint sire. Low profile jockey Navin Mangalee has won 2 races fro this trainer.
I like this horse so much I will also make it an mythical claim for $40,000
Race 4 – $5,000 nw 2x 6m
D = #10 This is a horrible race for claimers that have not won 2 races in 6 months. My pick is 10 year old that has won $400,000 is 79 starts. My guess is that that is roughly a breakeven horse over 9 years of racing. This is a race i would never bet, but in a contest you have to make a choice.
Race 5 – $20,000 Waiver MC
B = #6 – Knockout Kick – You must understand the conditions of this race. Penn-bred’s are not subject to claim in this field. My friends at Pewter Stables have nice looking 2nd time starter. This son of Shackleford looks like a nice sprinter, and cannot be claimed. Not sure i will get the 7-2 morning line, but let’s pray.
Race 6 – $12,000 staight claimer
A = # 5 – Izzadora Bella – A good old fashion straight claiming race. Spedale Family Racing is a new group that has been winning at 20% and at nice prices. Here they get top jockey Mychel Sanchez (who rode Quick Tempo for us). This is a trainer/owner angle I love in these low level races.
Race 7 – MSW $40,000 2yr old
A = #6 – Mundle of Joy – Kate DeMasi is not the best first time out, but the Spedale Family owns part of this horse. Munnings are great in the mud. The dam is by Kitten’s Joy, so you think turf, but she was a dirt sprinter.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claimer $40,000
C #2 Tiz Gracie – I loved the #3 but he scratched, I should take the favorite. I just cannot trust the claimers in this spot, so I will throw a “hail Mary” and try a closer
Race 9 – Pa-bred 1x allowance
D = #2 – nothing exciting in here, maybe the #3 was a better speculation, not sure what to make of John Servis these days
Race 10 – $7,500 claimers nw3 lifetime
C = #11 – Valerie First – This trainer won some races a few years ago, but this is his first start of 2020. The horse fits the conditions, and attracts top jockey Mychel Sanchez.
This is a fun card, with a decent amount of owner/trainers angles.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Now I remember why I do not play Parx very often. I am not very good. I finished 18th of 30 contestants. The winning score was $51.00, the qualifying score was just $31.00, but I managed just $14.00. Breakeven was $32.00 (8 races x $2 win/place). I did not know that Sanchez was off his mounts for COVID, and the track was back to fast by the 5th race.
Buying A Race Horse 