Quixote vs. Donegal

I received an e-mail today with what Donegal Partners calls Derby Dreams 14. They have 8 colts in a partnership with the goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has raced Arklow, Keen Ice, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado. I had a very nice conversation with their founder, Jerry Crawford, this summer. He believes in buying horses with the stamina to get 1 1/4 miles.

This is a very nice collection of horses. You can buy 1% for low to mid 5 figures (for details, contact them directly, I hesitate to disclose things that come in private e-mails). Donegal is in the middle as far as expenses. Well less than West Point/Eclipse, more than the smaller guys.

I love the Curlin, Street Sense, and Kitten’s Joy colts. I am not a fan of the Uncle Mo’s, that is my bias. Most people would disagree with me. I am also not thrilled with the Hard Spun colt. I have a neutral opinion on the Distorted Humor and Exaggerator colts. It seems that Donegal relies heavily on “heart scores” to measure stamina, and not so much on pedigree. That may be a great approach, but I am not sold just yet.

Overall the Donegal’s portfolio of horses is maybe a little behind Centennial, but it is light years better than Ten Strike or Starlight. To me the Donegal top three were better than any of the expensive horses that West Point or Eclipse bought. If the Uncle Mo’s were replaced by some more ideas like the top three, I would be an investor.

Here is the Donegal group:

1. Curlin – Isabella Sings by Eskendereya $350,000 (spectacular horse), Sweeping Giant, nothing since September 2021, 2nd at Saratoga MSW
2. Street Sense – Wedding Jitters by Broken Vow $125,000 (really nice)Knot the One, not working, 1 MSW try at Monmouth
3. Kitten’s Joy – Elemntar by More Than Ready $150,000 (maybe Arklow II), Ready to Purrform, won the Laurel Futurity, $141,000, 2nd in Pimlico Stakes
4. Uncle Mo – Runaway Ready by Mr. Greeley $400,000 (they own 1/2), Lundberg, working at Oaklawn, bad in MC at Oaklawn
5. Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown by Pulpit $250,000, Mo Donegal, Won the G2 Remsen, Wood Memorial, and Belmont Stakes, 1,500,000
6. Hard Spun – Wave the Flag by Empire Maker $140,000 (more of a miler to me), Tricolour claimed at FG for $40,000
7. Distorted Humor – Namaskara by Giant’s Causeway $130,000 (solid), Gooch Go Bragh, 5 tries to break maiden, has won $40,000, claimed for $50,000 by Danny Gargan
8. Exaggerator – Lookingforchange by Gilded Time $70,000 (ok, Gilded Time?), Hyperbolist, working at FG, 5 bad MSW tries at EVG

If you think Uncle Mo is a great source of stamina, then this is a very resonable group of horse. If you think that the Uncle Mo is just another Indian Charlie sprinter that had a few good races, then the group only gets a B, maybe a B+.

Here is the Arrogant Bastard 2 portfolio to compete with Donegal:

1. Honor Code – Beat the Drums by Smart Strike $260,000, Videri, working in Florida
2. Midnight Storm – Tasunke -by Indian Charlie – $180,000, Swing Shift, working in Florida
3. Twirling Candy – Unique Ride by Tale of the Cat $150,000, Portsmouth, 3 tries in MSW in California
4. Gormley – The Best Option by PleasantTap – $140,000, Camargo, 3 tries at MC at OP
5. Connect – Vindy City by Vindication – $120,000, MSW winner at SA
6. Maclean’s Music – Dazzling by Galileo – $100,000, Raghadan, not working
7. Air Force Blue – Celebrity Cat by Storm Cat – $145,000, 3 tries MSW at SA
8. American Pharoah – Moth by Galileo – $200,000, Mazuma, 3 tries MSW at FG
9. Classic Empire – Miss Mambo by Kingmambo – $100,000, Classic King , not working

My horses were a little less expensive so I took 9 to reach the roughly $1,400,000 that Donegal spent.

I am sure that 95% of investors would feel more “comfortable” with the Donegal portfolio, only really arrogant bastards would believe in the bottom portfolio.

The results will be in two+ years, may the best man win.