Has the Derby Winner Already Run?

As we reach the end of October, has the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby already run a race?

My first guess is that the answer is no, but let’s look a little deeper.

Let’s first look at the 30 most expensive Keeneland colt yearlings last year:

1. Aussie Pride – Curlin – not working
2. Brother in Arms – War Front – 6 works
3. Lidstrom – Tapit – 8 works
4. Alexander Valley – M d’ O – 9 works
5. Beatbox – P of N – 7th at Keeneland
6. Vanishing Point – Tapit – not working
7. Golden Whim – M d’O – not working
8. American Admiral – Pharoah – 7 works
9. Pigott – Curlin – not working
10. Federal Bureau – M d’O – not working
11. North Pole – P of N – 2nd at SA
12. Ghazaaly – Curlin – not working
13. Contango – Candy Ride – not working
14. Spielberg – Union Rags – 2nd at DM
15. Khartoum – P of N – not working
16. Overtook – Curlin – 4th at Belmont
17. Eleven Central – Into M – not working
18. Find New Roads – Q Road – 3 works
19. Scream – Tw Candy – not working
20. xxx not named – Uncle Mo
21. Hopkins -Q Road – 2 works
22. Prime Factor – Q Road – 4 works
23. Elite Power – Curlin – not working
24. Engrave – Flatter – 2nd at Belmont
25. Whiskey Double – IM – winner at Churchill
26. Mischief Moon – IM – not working
27. Ebnzaidoon – Speight – not working
28. Scarlet Fusion – Curlin – 5th at Churchill
29. Tenor – Curlin – 6th at DM
30. Absolute Courage – IM – 4 works. – $800,000

14 of the top are not yet working!!!!

Only 1 of the top 30 has won a race!!!

What does that mean? Has COVID slower down the process? Is everyone being conservative? Maybe these expensive are treated more gently?

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So at random I started with $100,000

1. xxx not named
2. Core – first sam – 3 works
3. xxx not named
4. Billy Yank – Union – 7th at Woodbine
5. xxx not named
6. Rebel Step – not working
7. Tall Timber – mine – 2 works
8. xxx not named
9. One Time Gem – 2nd at Lou Downs
10. xxx not named
11. Supply Chain – Speightster – not working
12. xxx not named
13. Strike a Deal – Tiznow – 2 works
14. Candy Mover – CR – 2 wins in 9 starts at Belterra, wow
15. Warrior nation – Union – 5 works
16. Grandconcourse Guy – Dis Hum – 1 work
17. Macchiato d’oro – Hard Spun – no works
18. xxx not named
19. Isle of Sark – kj – no works
20. Canadian man – MM – not working

In my random sample 50% were not yet working!!!

Only 1 had won, and that was at Belterra!!!

I am not sure what this means, but I do not want to go out and buy a yearling right now

• – – – – – – – – – – – –

So let’s go to the Ocala sale and look at the top 20 colts

1. Thales – Q road – no works
2. Bobby Bo -Speightster -no works
3. Dolder Grand – CR – 3rd at Woodbine
4. Vittorio – Ghost – winner at DM with a 97 equibase
5. xxx – Cal Chrome – not racing
6. Rising Empire – 4th at Keeneland
7. xxx – Unnamed
8. Arzak – Not This – 5th at Delaware
9. Superman Shaq – winner at DM, 80
10. KC Rocket – Kanth -2 works
11. Happy Romance – 3 works
12. Origanal – 8th at Belmont
13. Fighting Force – 2nd at Belmont, 87
14. Mouheeb – no works
15. Tivoli Twirl- 4 works
16. Blue Boon – 4 works
17. Spirit Maker – 8 works
18. xxx unnamed
19. Golden Flash – 4 works
20. xxx – unnamed, $300,000

This seems impossible, but only 2 of the top 20 colts from the Ocala sale have won a race!

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Maybe COVID has delayed development, or maybe this was just a bad group