Pick Just One – Quixote’s Pick

Let’s try to pick my favorite horse from both the training sales and the yearling sales.

If I had to pick just one it would be:

Hip #968 from the Keeneland yearling sale

Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado, 2/17 – $40,000

Click to access 968.pdf

Out of the several thousand horses I looked at, why is this the best one?

1. I considered several different strategies. I think the best strategy is to pick a sire that “falls out of favor”, because buyers expect instant results. The more I learn, the more I see that “Lexington is the same as Wall Street”. You can take advantage of this short-term orientation by finding a 2nd or 3rd crop sire where prices are falling.
2. I have now watched the selections of over 30 different partnerships. By far the most impressive has been the work of Centennial Farm. I firmly believe they are the best “long-term investor” in the partnership business.
3. By combining #1 and #2 I reach the conclusion that I should be looking for an offspring of Honor Code. His average yearling fell from $$76,000 in 2019, to only $48,000 in 2020. Honor Code has produced Honor AP and Max Player, but not many of his runners have been the precocious types the buyers prefer. Honor Code is “under-valued”. His female family is perhaps the most stamina oriented of all the sons of AP Indy. Centennial Farms bought the most expensive Honor Code at the sale for $260,000. I think Honor Code is the sire I should focus on.
4. I want to combine Honor Code with a stamina oriented/late developing dam, because this is the best way to buy an inexpensive Honor Code. If I had an unlimited budget, I might choose another type of mare, but I want a horse that the pinhookers will hate. Many will question this part of the strategy, but I think it is essential.
5. The dam of hip #968 did not win until her 4 year old season, but in March of her 3 year old season, she ran a 99 Equibase fig for Patrick Gallagher at Santa Anita going 1 1/16. That would win a MSW almost anywhere expect Santa Anita. She was never in a claimer, and after her one win it was off to the breeding shed. This is the kind of “sneaky good” mare that I prefer.
6. The dam of #968, Ermine Slippers, is a full sister to $2,000,000 winner Borrego. Borrego won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Pacific Classic, and was 2nd in several other graded stakes races. Being a full sister to a champion is no guaranty of breeding success, but for this price tag it is nice to have.
7. Erimine Slippers produced 3 winners from her first 3 foals, including a $100,000 winner and a $60,000 winner. That is not spectacular, but it is solid.
8. Erimine Slippers is the daughter of the great El Prado. El Prado is the sire of Medaglia d’Oro and Kitten’s Joy. El Prado was a great 2 year old, but as a son of Sadler’s Wells he might have gone longer if he were not injured at 3.
9. The sons of AP Indy/El Prado nick is rated A+ at TrueNicks
10. The 2nd dam was by Derby winner Strike the Gold, and produced Borrego. The 3rd dam was graded stakes placed, and is from a family with plenty of black type.

I certainly would not want to pinhook this horse and try to get him to work 10.0 at the Ocala sale in April, but I would love to race him in maybe December 2021. In all honesty, I would not expect him to race until he is 3 years old. This will add to his cost.

I think Honor Code is a great value, I think the dam was sneaky good, and I think the pedigree suggests he could win the Kentucky Derby. I think $40,000 is a bargain price.

Needs a name, so let’s call him Quixote’s Pick.