Confused

I just talked with a very smart horse racing guy with 30 years of experience, and his strategy was to buy yearlings out of mares with almost no racing or breeding success. Maybe that is the right strategy if you are buying a $400,000 horse, but is it the right strategy if you are buying a $40,000 horse?

I started looking at what was available in the upcoming Ocala yearling sale, and really had to stop and think about hip #104:

#104 – f – Connect – Exclusive Woman by Cat Thief

1. I have talked myself into Connect being an interesting first year sire. West Point and several others bought nice Connect’s in Lexington. The son of Curlin should be an above average stamina influence.
2. The dam raced 40 times, was 1st or 2nd thirteen times for low profile Florida connections. She did run a 99 Equibase fig while routing. She was no star, but she was the classic “hard-knocking” mare
3. The dam is by BC Classic winner Cat Thief
4. The dam has produced 4 winners from five foals. None have won stakes, but they have been solid.
5. The 2nd dam is by my favorite Dynaformer. She was a marginal runner, but the producer of 7 winners.
6. The 3rd dam was a solid running daughter of Affirmed, that produced a $1 million dollar winner in Japan
7. The Curlin/Storm Cat nick is rated A at TrueNicks.
8. The filly is a NY-bred

I would call this pedigree extremely solid, perhaps a little boring, but not spectacular.

Maybe this is exactly the “lower risk” pedigree that a little guy should be looking for. Perhaps the “accomplishment free” strategy does not make sense in the low-end market.

A small pinhooking group called First Finds bought this horse for $20,000 in January at what I guess is called a short yearling sale. Will they sell it in this poor market for $30,000 to $40,000? Why was this horse not at Keeneland? Maybe they chose to keep this horse in Florida, because the dam was a Florida horse?