The good news is that Swiss Skydiver was hip #2997 at Keeneland two years ago. She sold for only $35,000. For bargain hunters like me this is extremely encouraging. You can buy a great horse for less than $50,000 at a Keeneland yearling sale.
“Cheap horses can win” is very important point that must be emphasized. Bob Baffert and his parade of $1,000,000 horses got beat by a commoner.
I guess you have to cheer for Kenny McPeek. He is very active at the sales. He bought 25 horses at the recent Keeneland sales. Most must be for his private clients. McPeek does operate somiethng called Magdelena Partners, which is a group that has won many races over the years. There is a slight hint that the partnerships might get the “second choices”, but it will be fascinating to see what Magdelena offers over the next few months. I will be watching with great interest.
The Really Bad News
The last two “classic” races have been won by an Into Mischief and a Daredevil of all things. If you wanted to create a horse to win a 3f stakes race in March you might try breeding Daredevil to a Johannesburg mare (Swiss Skydiver’s cross).
Into Mischief’s finished 1-2 in the Bourbon, prepping for the BC Juvenile and Laoban’s (by Uncle Mo) ran very well in other juvenile stakes.
It is raining Cox/Crow, sprinter/milers, precocious beasts. The plodders are nowhere to be found, even with the calendar being turned back so the classic races were later in the year.
To be fair, let’s remember that Tiz the Law is a great grandson of AP Indy, and the son of a Tiznow mare, and a Go for Gin second dam. That is still plodder/plodder.
Who will win the Derby in two years? Maybe it will be a son of Lord Nelson (the ultimate sprinter sire), like the one Ten Strike paid $400,000+ for. At least the Runhappy train seems to have crashed.
The battle of speed/precocious/sprinter/milers vs plodders/stamina will continue to be fought in future auctions. I guess I should be thrilled that plodders will be even cheaper next spring in Ocala.
What would you rather have?
A single trailer with your bright and shiny $500,000 Into Mischief colt.
or
a fleet of trailers loaded with 2 Honor Code’s, 2 Orbs, 2 Dialed In’s, 2 Tonalists, 2 Midnight Storm’s, and 2 Summer Front’s.
Think very carefully before you answer that question.
The Into Mischief colt might give you a .5% chance of winning the Derby, but the average return on that colt might be about 40%, compared to say 75% from the cheaper group of horses.
If I had to guess why Barry Irwin of Team Valor chose to leave US racing, it just might be that the speed horses are just too damn expensive at the US auctions. They give you a better chance to win, but the overall returns are just too low.
Buying A Race Horse 