Focus

By now I am sure the readers are tired of my endless lists. I want to bring the yearling sales to a conclusion right here. If I eventually decide that yearlings are the best place to invest I face a distinct choice –

1. Invest is a group of yearlings through a partnership like Donegal, Ten Strike, Starlight, Centennial, or Bourbon Lane.
2. Invest in a few individual horses through West Point, Eclipse, or any of the smaller partnerships.
3. Try to find the correct strategy to find an individual horse to buy at FT or Keeneland.

Right now for 2020 that choice would be:

1. by into 5% of the Donegal Partnership for about $50,000
2. buy 5% of West Point’s Connect colt, by 3% of Starlight’s Air Force Blue filly, and maybe 3% of Ironhorse’s Connect colt, all total this would be about $50,000
3. pick the best strategy, and buy one real horse

Those five strategies to choose from are:

1. find the best turf oriented filly
2. find the best young, undervalued sire
3. find a speed oriented more “modern” sire
4. find the best freshman sire
5. choose an alternative strategy, either unicorn or Cox/Crow

At either at $50,000 or $25,000 price point those 5 strategies lead to 10 horses:

1. f – Summer Front – Summer Flirt by Bernardini – $50,000 – turf filly
2. f – Cairo Price – Sing Lady Sing by Scat Daddy – $25,000 – turf filly
3. c – Honor Code – Ermine Slippers by El Prado – $40,000 – undervalued sire
4. c – Dialed In – Awesome Frances by Awesome Again – $27,000 – undervalued sire
5. c – Gormley – Voodoo Lounge by Pleasant Tap – $60,000 – speed sire
6. f – Gormley – Lady Siphonica by Siphon – $20,000 – speed sire
7. f – Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper – $35,000 – freshman sire
8. c – Connect – Star Venue by Vindication – $15,000 – freshman sire
9. f – Mastery – Golden Production by Exchange Rate – $50,000 – unicorn strategy
10. c – Unified – Eleganter by AP Indy – $50,000 – “what if I am wrong”/Cox-Crow strategy

In the real world these horse would need another $20,000 to $40,000 to break and prepare for the races.

After watching all the expensive horses getting sold it is easy to conclude that the second tier is nothing but junk. That would be a poor conclusion. Last years Juvenile Filly winner British Idiom was a $40,000 yearling purchase,

These are the 10 key horses from the yearling sales.

In my initial lists I included some more expensive horses to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike, but in the real world I am not going to build a $1,000,000 partnership next year.

In the real world I could come to the yearling sales and buy a horse like the ten listed above next year, or more likely in 2022.