Before we choose the best strategy to select a yearling, let’s try to list all the different possibilites:
Sex:
- colt
- filly
- either is fine
By sire:
- looking for a specific sire
- looking for a range of sire (maybe 5 or 10)
- looking at many sires with some exclusions
- looking at all sires
By class number:
- a freshman sire
- a 2nd year sire, remember no one can see any physical results yet, but we have one year of sales results
- a 3rd year sire,
- a 4th year sire
- an experienced sire
- a very old sire
By popularity:
- did the sire sell well at the last sale
- did the sire sell about average at the last sale
- did the sire sell below average at the last sale
By racing results:
We could try to further divide this by 2-yr old, 3-yr old, and older
- has the sire had racing results that were above average
- has the sire had racing results that were average
- Has the sire had racing results that were below average
What is the best way to measure racing results?
By percocity:
- does the sire produce above average 2-yr olds
- does the sire produce average 2-yr olds
- does the sire produce more late developing horses
By stamina:
- does the sire produce sprinters
- does the sire produce milers
- does the sire produce classic distance horses
- is the sire hard to categorize
Maybe this is the same as percocity, but it might not always be the same
By date of birth:
- January and February foals
- March foals
- April and May foals
Should this even be a concern?
By price range:
- over $200,000
- over $100,000
- over $50,000
- over $25,000
- under $25,000
By sire stud fee:
- Over $50,000
- the $40,000 – 50,000 range
- the $20,000 – $25,00 range
- the $10,000 – $15,000 range
By multiple of stud fee paid:
- paying more than 5x
- paying 3-5x
- paying less than 3x
By racing ability of the dam:
- an above average runner
- an average runner
- a below average runner
- only a few races
- unraced
How to best measure ability – stakes level, money earned, speed figure
By the production quality of the dam:
- has produced good runners
- has produced average runners
- has produced bad runners
- has only a few foals
- first foal
Again how should we measure quality?
By the quality of the dam’s sire:
- above average
- average
- below average
By the expected surface of the foal:
- dirt
- turf
- a horse that might due either
By the identity of the breeder/consigner:
- big operation
- medium size operation
- small operation
By the physical appearance of the horse:
- above average looks
- average looks
- I guess someone could go looking for “problem” horses
Sex:
- colt
- filly
- either one