Review and Anger

Before the Ocala sale started, but after the workouts, I did the post below.

Of the 12 horses selected, 7 sold, 3 were withdrawn, and 2 were RNAed.

Of the 7 sold, 1 is a winner, 2 have run solid maiden races, and 2 are working steadily without a race, 1 is named but not working, and 1 is unnamed.

Of the 3 withdrawn horses, 2 are already winners, and 1 is unnamed.

The 2 RNA horses have not yet worked.

The fact that 2 of the 3 withdrawn after working horses have already won a race makes me pretty damn angry. This is a subject we will continue to revisit.

12 Colts to Win the 2021 Derby, or at Least an Allowance Race at Turfway

would love to buy each of these colts at 5x their stud fee, but I would certainly pay 10x. For the top 5 I might even go 20x.

There were 14 works of 9.4 and 100 10.0, there were also 34 works of 20.4 or faster. That is 148 horses that had fast works (1315 total, but only 800 worked). Last year 128 horses sold for $200,000 or more at this sale.

The basic theme is second tier sires, with solid route running mares, and an above average workout.

1. #762 – Sky Mesa by Distorted Humor (2nd dam by Dynaformer). I did not start out looking for Sky Mesa’s, but found an excellent TDN article about “value sires”. Sky Mesa is the grandson of AP Indy through Pulpit. I found an solid 21.1 work, for a May foal. Mom ran a 102 speed figures at 1 1/2 mile for Tom Proctor in a small stakes race at Keenland. Sky Mesa is a $15,000 fee. I also love the other 5 horses consigned by Coastal Equine, a pinhooker. Sold for $19,000 as a yearling. Named Too Legit, winner at Woodbine
2. # 589 – Bodemiester by Kitten’s Joy (2nd dam by Woodman). Bodemeister is another “value sire”, who has been shipped to Turkey. That should not excite many buyers. Bodemiester is the son of Empire Maker, and grandson of Unbridled. He had a very solid 21 flat work. Mom ran a 95 speed fig for Wayne Catalano at 1 and 1/16 at Arlington. The second dam produced 3 graded stakes winners. Dam was bred to Uncle Mo her first year. Bodemiester fee was $15,000 – Named Bode’s Tipsy, decent 3rd at Woodbine
3. #348 – Creative Cause by Grand Lodge. Creative Cause (a son of Giant’s Causeway, Grand Lodge won several 1 1/2 Irish G1’s) sired Pavel out an unraced Maria’s Mon mare. The work was a solid 21.1. Mom of 348 was a small time winner is Australia, but was bred for much better. She produced a solid winner with Exchange Rate. The second dam was a G2 winner at a distance, and produced a G2 winner. Creative Cause stands for $15,000. Sold for $35,000 as a yearling. Named Creative Boys, not working
4. #1205 – Bayern by Jeblar. Everyone is down on Bayern’s, but I will give him another chance. The work was a very quick 20.4 . Mom was a solid long distance Tampa and Delaware allowance horse (ran 85’s). She producer a Multiple graded winner Jeranimo by Congaree. Bayern stands for $15,000. Sold for $75,000 as a yearling. Named Cane Creek Road, working at Ellis
5. #1155 – Carpe Diem by Street Cry. I am a believer in the Carpe Diem story . He was a great looking $1,000,000 yearling whose career was cut short by injury. Mom ran solid 85″s at Laural. She produced a solid winner by Bernardini.. The second dam is by His Majesty. The work was a solid 21. April foal. Sold as a weanling for $220,000. This one might be too expensive. The backup might be 937 the mare ran a 101 speed figure in her short career. From a Seeking the Gold son. Sold for $30,000 as a yearling. Or maybe 1313 at the end – $72,000 RNA, unnamed
6. #340 – Social Inclusion by Lemon Drop Kid. Social Inclusion is a little known son of Pioneerof the Nile. He set a track record at Gulfstream, and was 3rd in the Preakness. He stand for$5,000 in Pennslyvania. The dam was unraced, but her full sister was a stakes winner in Canada. The alternative is paying $500,000 for an American Pharoah colt. The work was a reasonable 21.2 April foal. – withdrawn, not named
7. #359 – Wicked Strong by Medaglia de Oro. Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy, and almost won the Travers. The mare won in England and was stakes placed in the U.S. She ran 96 speed figures 6 times. She produced 2 solid winners. Wicked Strong stands for $6,000. The work was an average 10.2. Consigned by the same woman as my #1 horse. Foaled in late April. Sold for $30,000 as a weanling – named Brooklyn Strong, winner in Delaware
8. #389 – Dialed In by Unbridled Song. Dialed In was Zito’s last good horse, winner of the Florida Derby. Dialed In is another “value sire” that is getting better mares. His stud fee was recently doubled to $20,000 because his yearling were selling so well. The mare ran a solid 85 speed figure and has produced a G2 placed runner at 1 1/8. – named Tiger, winner MSW at Gulfstream
9. #529 – Noble Mission by Smart Strike. The sire of Code of Honor is by Galileo and Sadler’s Wells. The dam set a NCR at Belmont for 1 1/4 on the turf. The second dam is G2 placed. The work was an ok 10.2. Stud fee is $20,000. Sold for $20,000 as a yearling. – unnamed
10. #1276 – Tonalist by Exchange Rate. Mare ran a 107 finishing second in the G2 Indiana Derby. Produced two solid winners. Work was a solid 21.1. Foaled May 19th. Sold for $115,000 as a yearling – named The Reds, nice 4th in MSW, needs longer, looks good
11. #351 – We Miss Artie- Stop laughing, We Miss Artie was a solid horse (Artie Schiller by a Fu Peg Mare) that Pletcher pushed too fast for Mr. Ramsey. This large and beautiful colt worked a solid 21.1. An April foal, We Miss Artie stands for $5,000. – named Whatmakessammyrun , 5th at Saratoga
12. #259 – Not This Time by Songandaprayer. There were 6 Not This Time’s with fast works, but I took and average work of 21.3. The mare ran 104 speed figures at Hollywood and produced a $150,000 winner. The second dam was a G2 winner. at 1 1/16. Sold for $100,000 as a yearling. – named Fire Group, not working

The basic strategy will be the same, but with fillies I might focus a little more on pedigreee and a little less on work out times.

I still want some long distance ability, and fillies from second tier sires. Maybe the price ranges should be a little less, but I still would prefer 5x, but be willing to pay 10x.

1. #162 – Point of Entry by Mt. Livermore (sire of the second dam is Kingmambo.) Point of Entry is the best available son of Dynaformer. This is clearly a 1 1/2 pedigree. The dam won a small stakes race with a speed figure of 100. She has produced a few winners. The work was a spectacular 21.1 for such a distance oriented pedigree. This is exactly the type of horse I would like to find. The stud fee is $15,000. I would have to be very disciplined not be the high bidder, even at 20x. April foal. As a yealing the filly RNAed at $44,000. – named Avisse 3rd at Del Mar
2. #326 Mshawish by Street Cry (the second dam sire is Sadler’s Wells). I hope Mshawish in the next great son of Medaglia de Oro. The dam is unraced, but the second dam was second in a long distance grade 1 turf race. The work was a solid 21.2. The stud fee is only $10,000. This would be a great buy for 5x. Sold for $32,000 as weanling. named Risky Reward, 2nd at Kentucky Downs MSW, Walsh
3. #13 – Carpe Diem by Sadler’s Wells. I am not sure sure if Carpe Diem is a turf horse, but if he is it will with this type of mare. Mom was unraced, but has produced a G2 placed turf filly by Tapit. The second dam is a multiple graded stakes winner. The filly was one of horses to work 3/8’s of a mile. The time was 33.2, the 5th fastest of the 13. The stud fee is $15,000. She sold for $25,000 as a yearling. named Killer Dress, working at Fair Hill
4. #274 – Temple City by Danzig. I am a big fan of Temple City. The mare was unplaced, but did produced the winner of the G3 Illinois Derby. The work was a solid 10.1, I would have preferred 2 furlongs. April foal. Temple City stands for $7,500. Sold as a yearling for $20,000 – named Amalfi Princess, 3rd at Kentucky Downs MSW
5. #485 -Ironicus by Hennessy. Ironicus is an interesting first crop sire. He was more of miler, but his pedigree suggests he could have gone longer. The mare was a $200,000 yearling purchase trained by Bobby Ribuado. Bobby was the trainer of my friend’s multiple graded stakes winning filly Biogio’s Rose, so I have followed all Ribuado’s horses carefully. She was a solid allowance horse for awhile and ran several 90 speed figures. The work was a quick 21.0. The stud fee is $5,000. I would love this for anything less than 10x April foal. named Quick Gold, working at Churchill
6. #997 – Summer Front by Empire Maker. This sire could get more attention if Ete Indien continues to run well. The mare was a solid allowance horse for Bill Mott, and was a $330,000 yearling purchase. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $10,000. This might really be my second favorite filly. – working at Gulfstream
7. #51 – Anchor Down by Majestic Warrior. Anchor was a fast miler, and a son of Tapit. The dam ran 80 speed figure in her first try, but then got hurt. The work was a solid 21.2, and the stud fee is 7,500. This is the first crop. Sold for $11,000 as a yearling. named Captured Prize, winner MSW in Puerto Rico
8. #262 Palace Malice by Grand Slam This son of Curlin has been getting some runners. The dam was unraced, but has produced 4 solid winners. Maybe this is trying to hard to get a classic sire. The work was a solid 21.2 and the stud fee is $25,000 April foal. dam pilamaya – withdrawn
9. #1217 – Tourist by Pulpit Tourist is an interesting first year sire that could be either turf or dirt. The dam was not much, but has produced a solid stakes quality runner named Adonis Creed, who I have bet on several times. The work was a slow 10.3, but the familiarity with the female family is a plus. Tourist stands for $7,500. April foal. named Mike’s Lady, working at Arlington
10. #258 – Violence by Pioneering. Maybe I am trying to hard to find the best son of Medaglia de Oro, but he produces so many great looking horses. This mare set a NCR at Parx at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. She produced a solid winner. Fee is $25,000. April foal, The work was 21.2. RNAed for $45,000 as a yearling. named nurturing, work at Santa Anita
11. #1085 – Orb by Buddha. (Buddha was a son of Unbridled Song) Most have given up on Orb as a sire, but TDN calls him a “value sire”. The dam was a slow horse but has producer 5 winners from 5 foals, including a grade 1 winning turf miler, Valid Point. The work was a fast 21.1. Orb stands for $10,000. Sold as a yearling for $85,000. named Gathered Flowers, working at Fair Hill
12. #225 – Upstart by More than Ready. Upstart was Richie Violettes last good horse. His yearlings have been selling like hotcakes. The mare was slow, but produced a G3 placed colt in her first foal. The work was a slow 33.4, but maybe indicates she has stamina.Upstart stands for $10,000, but his yearlings sold for a median of $40,000 last year. This one sold for $25,000 as a yearling. I would be a buyer up to $50,000. named zoom up, working in Indiana