I wrote a post 22 days ago stating that the big yearling sales were really a new beginning. When I started this blog before the June Ocala sale, I was really starting in the middle of the season.
With the two big yearling sales nearly concluded, what have I learned?
First, I am very happy I am writing this blog. Buying horses is a very complex subject, and if I were not writing this all I would have is a stack of scattered notes. Being forced to write modestly intelligible sentences has forced me to really think through various issues.
Second, and really most importantly, I can now respond to the offers of various partnerships with a much higher degree on confidence. Four months ago I did not really know what I was looking for, today I know exactly what I am looking for. That is a significant improvement. Does that mean I can magically pick the right horse? Of course not, but it does mean I can be happy with my choice when I finally make one.
I have learned about the frustration of late withdrawals and RNAs at these sales. To an investment guy it seems unfair that a horse can be offered, but then not sold if you do not pay “too much”. If you did all your due diligence on a stock, and decided to buy it, you would not be happy if it were suddenly not for sale. This frustration is real, and it means that one thing I have to learn more about is the reliability of various sellers.
From a practical point of view I was satisfied with the offerings of West Point and Eclipse. It would have exciting if they bought a Midnight Storm or a Gormley, or one of my top ten favorite sires (well Eclipse did buy an Air Force Blue, but paid too much). I was very close to buying the Connect that West Point was offering. The more I learned about Connect the more I liked, and Vindication/Seattle Slew on the dam side was also interesting. I also liked the Street Sense that WP had, and a few of the Eclipse horses as well.
I may live to regret not getting involved this year, but I have that nagging feeling that next year will be a better time to buy into a significant partnership. It was good to know I was very close this year.
It was also interesting to see the decent quality of horse you could find for $50,000 or less. If I had walked out of those two auctions with any of the 10 horses on my bargain list, I would have been very excited. I certainly do not yet have the relationships needed to break and prepare a yearling for racing, but someday I might.
Let’s just look at one:
Hip #185 at Fasig-Tipton was a son of Midnight Storm – Kuhlu by Ghostzapper.
A week before the sale Elliot Walden of Winstar said Midnight Storm was one of his “under the radar” new sires. Winstar bought one for $180,000, but I found a filly I liked better for just $35,000
She is out of a Ghostzapper (damsire of Justify) mare that has already produced a G3 winner. The second dam is by Hansel (a great stamina influence) was a $300,000 winner. The nick is rated A++ at True Nicks
She was a May 31 foal, so not many pinhookers even thought twice about her.
If this horse were on her way to Ocala right now to broken by someone I trusted, I would be a very happy camper.
I would equally thrilled by an horse on my under $50,000 list. It is easy to be frustrated by the withdrawals and RNAs, but there were still plenty of bargains. I cannot say the same for my under $25,000 list. Those horses are decent speculations, but I would feel uncomfortable spending another $30,000 to train them.
In reality the choice is either owning 5% of top quality horse that could win graded stakes races for about $20,000, or owning 100% of a horse that might someday winl an allowance race for about $60,000/$80,000 (acquisition cost + training cost).
Buying A Race Horse 