I am writing a chronicle of my quest to buy a successful race horse. This quest needed a name so I christened it “Quixote Racing Stable”.
Don Quixote was a fictional character whose idealism was “defeated and rendered useless by common reality”. There is a significant chance that any horse racing story will end in tragedy, it is a very difficult and opaque business. The dream is buy a horse that wins a few nice races and can at least breakeven on a financial basis.
The story really begins when Lone Star Park was built in suburban Dallas, Texas in 1997. I was in the middle of career in investments, and spent most of my spare time practicing and playing golf. I had also learned to be a semi-pro card counting blackjack player, but I quickly discovered that handicapping horse races was much more interesting. My horse racing knowledge grew quickly because my friends owned a $900,000+ winning filly named Biogio’s Rose.
My handicapping gave a me good understanding of breeding and different owners, but I had never really understood how the sales worked. I had met Cot Campbell (the founding father of partnerships) at a seminar year ago, so I always watched from a distance the horses owned by West Point, Eclipse, Dogwood, and Donegal. I always knew that someday I would try to evaluate each different partnership group. But most of my time was spent trying to hit pick 5’s and pick 6’s, and I never had time to investigate the partnerships.
Then along came the COVID pandemic. As we were being asked to stay indoors, they were just starting the breeze show for the second 2-year old in training sale at Ocala. I had about 10 days to develop a reasonable strategy to pick horses from that sale which occurred on June 9-12.
I used my 40+ years of investment experience to build a selection process for horses. I did not consult any horse “experts”. I knew I could not afford the horses with fast works, so I decided to choose horses that worked above average, but whose pedigree would suggest they would work in a below average time. In simple terms I tried to pick “plodders” that worked 10.1, not sprinters that worked 9.4 or 10.0. I also tried to select sires that were “out of favor”. This is not particularly sophisticated, but it was better than nothing. I left the sale with a list of 20 horses that I “bought” with imaginary money. I repeated this idea at the Timonium sale and the July Ocala sale. I am now tracking about 50 two year olds.
At the same time I was also watching which horses West Point, Eclipse, and all the other partnership were choosing at these sales. I now had a much better perspective to evaluate their offers than I had when I started this quest. I chose to make two small investments with a group out of Chicago called Dare to Dream Stables. I bought 2% of a son of Tapizar, and a daughter of Tapiture. I also made small investments with Hibiscus and Pewter Stables. One of those horses, Quick Tempo, won his first race and might being entered in a $500,000 stakes race at Kentucky Downs.
The whole experience with the two year old in training sales has begun to push me toward the idea that yearling sales are a better way to buy horses. Conversations with a number of partnership guys also contributed to this opinion. Groups like Donegal and Ten Strike focus almost exclusively on the yearling sales. Yearling vs. training sales will be a key decision going forward. Just to be complete I have also made 3 imaginary claims, and have watched the guys at Zilla Racing makes some claims at Saratoga.
Obviously I could just hire a bloodstock agent to buy me a horse, or I could pick the partnership with the slickest website. That would destroy all the enjoyment. I really like the effort of trying to figure out how to buy a good horse. So far I have learned about 30% of what I need to buy a good horse. When COVID ends I want travel and meet some folks in person.
Just like in the investment world, picking the right strategy is important. In the investment world it is the perpetual conflict between growth and value investing. In horse racing the battle is between speed/precocity and stamina. I took up horse racing to avoid the investing world, yet I am dragged back into almost exactly the same fight. In the investing world I carry the flag for value investing. I have yet to decide on the best horse racing strategy, but my initial lean is toward the stamina side.
The quest is really about learning a completely new discipline at the advanced age of 60+. Perhaps I am just “charging at windmills”, in the spirit of don Quixote. Hopefully, I can learn enough to make a successful investment in a race horse.
Buying A Race Horse 