Crazy, Arrogant Bastard

How can any semi-sane person study the horse breeding/racing business for 100 days and conclude that their 5 favorites sires are:

1. Midnight Storm
2. Point of Entry
3. Twirling Candy
4. Maclean’s Music
5. Summer Front

Shouldn’t any reasonable list look something like:

1. Tapit
2. American Pharoah
3. Into Mischief (the sire of Audible)
4. Not This Time (the top juvenile sire so far)
5. Arrogate (the “best” new sire for 2020)

Only a crazy and arrogant bastard would insist that the top list is best.

Let me explain:

40+ years of investing experience has taught me you cannot just buy what the other guys are buying. I have studied the investment business almost every day for the past forty years. Some of the best professional investors purchased the research service, Behind the Numbers, that I helped design and write. With all that experience, if you asked me what 5 stocks to buy right now it would be:

1. Ardmore Shipping – ASC
2. Cameco – CCJ
3. Mosaic – MOS
4. Wabash National – WNC
5. Walgreen’s – WBA

It most certainly would not be:

1. Amazon
2. Apple
3. Netflix
4. Tesla
5. Microsoft

I would tell anyone who asked, professional investor or grandmother, to buy the top list and avoid the bottom list.

I am proudly a crazy, arrogant bastard.

Back to horse racing. Why do I like Midnight Storm so much:

1. Pioneerof the Nile has been a great sire, but his yearlings will cost on average $300,000 or more
2. American Pharoah would be a great substitute, but his yearlings will also be too expensive
3. Cairo Prince has been successful, but is still too popular
4. I fear that even Pionnerof the Nile’s other new son, Classic Empire will be too popular because he was so precocious (winning the BC juvenile)
5. Yes I am settling for the fifth choice, but for only a $10,000 stud fee I am getting great value.
6. I like what Midnight Storm’s female family brings, namely stamina through Bertrando.
7. Midnight Storm was accomplished on turf and dirt
8. Midnight Storm was a very fast miler that could also get 1 1/4 miles if needed
9. Midnight Storm was very sound, he made 27 starts
10. Midnight Storm was raced by relatively low profile connections, Richie Baltas and Little Red Feather.
11. Taylor Made Stallions did a great job with Not This Time last year, I will trust their judgement this year

Why do I like Point of Entry so much:

1. The established turf sires like War Front and Kitten’s Joy are too expensive
2. My handicapping experience has taught me that there is nothing better in long distance racing that offspring of Dynaformer
3. The female family brings in my favorite late developing stamina influence Pleasant Colony
4. I think there is a chance Point of Entry offspring could also run on dirt
5. I am not sure that Shug ever developed Point of Entry to the top of his potential
6. The price is right for only $15,000

Why do I like Twirling Candy so much:

1. I love the Candy Ride story, but i cannot afford the $100,000 stud fee
2. Twirling Candy is the most successful stamina horse by his sire, almost winning the Pacific Classic
3. The female family bring long distance running Chester House to the party
4. The fee is a little high at $40,000, but hopefully everyone will be chasing the yearlings of Candy Ride’s other son Gun Runner.
5. Twirling Candy’s should run on turf and dirt
6. Still don’t believe me try: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/no-illusion-about-breakout-summer-for-twirling-candy/

Why do I like Maclean’s Music so much:

1. Mclean’s Music is difficult to understand because he only made one start, but what a start it was with a Beyer of 114.
2. Distorted Humor is a difficult sire to gage, he can produce sprinters or distance horses like Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer
3. Seth Klarman is one of the great value investors of our time. Mr. Klarman was a buyer of our research. In horse racing, he took a chance with MM going a distance and got Preakness winning Cloud Computing.
4. I fear that Jackie’s Warrior could ruin our chances of getting MM’s cheap if he wins the Hopeful at Saratoga today

Why do I like Summer Front so much;

1. Obviously War Front’s are too expensive, but for SF the price is only $10,000
2. The female family brings El Prado and Sadler’s Wells to the party
3. Ete Indien certainly shows the SF’s can run on dirt
4. There are other son’s of War Front to choose from, but none has as much stamina influence as SF