Yearling Sales Are Coming Fast

The big yearling sales are less than two weeks aways. I have been looking through the catalogs, but the sheer number of horses is overwhelming. For example there are 49 Macleans’s Music at the Keeneland sale, plus 3 more at Fasig-Tipton. The Keeneland sale is further complicated because there are 6 “books” of declining quality. Trying to figure out a real world strategy would be a tough task.

Here is what I want to accomplish:

1. Select one horse at each five price points, under $25,000, under $50,000, under $75,000, under $100,000, and under $200,000
2. Build a portfolio of 10 colts for under $1,000,0000 to compete with Donegal and Ten Strike.
3. Build a portfolio of 10 fillies, I guess to compete with Starlight Ladies
4. Build a portfolio on 10 grass horses combining colts and fillies. This is really an interesting business idea because the big partnership seems to focus on dirt horses.
5. Maybe I will do an under $20,000 bargain portfolio, just to track more horses.
6. Maybe I will do a portfolio of “balanced” horses using sires like Unified and Practical Joke.

The main strategy will still focus on stamina oriented horses. Maybe I will consider using a more conventional strategy to build an additional list.

I will take some chances with new sires. I really like Midnight Storm and Keen Ice, and maybe Gormley. I think Classic Empire and Arrogate will be too popular.

I will also focus on old favorites like Maclean’s Music, Twirling Candy, Tonalist, and Summer Front.

I am also thinking about last years popular freshman sires that have had little success so far with their 2-year olds. Frosted is one I will consider.

The real question is what type of multiple you will have to pay. Will the pinhookers be scared because of the general weakness of the training sales and the COVID situation?

Book 1 at Keeneland had a median price of $350,000 last year, so the first two day will just be for watching. Maybe there will some value at the bottom of this book, but there might also be many RNA’s. Book ends at hip #448

Book 2 had a median of $180,000, so it will still be difficult, but not impossible, to find something in our price range here. Book ends at hip #834.

Book 3 had a median of $80,000 last year, so this is where our shopping really begins.

Book 4 has a median of $40,000, book 5 is $15,000, and book 6 is $5,000.