Jerry Crawford is the founder and principal of Donegal Racing. For the last 12 years they have picked 12 horses and put them into a partnership that has a stated goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Donegal has campaigned Arklow, Keen Ice, and Dullahan, but have yet to find that elusive Derby winner.
I read with great interest an interview that Crawford did early this year.
Crawford starts by saying the key to buying horses is “value”. This is a simple, but controversial statement.
He then makes the semi-amazing statement that he uses algorithms to select yearlings. It would be fascinating to understand the variables that are the inputs to these algorithms. I might expect a quant approach from a 35 year old guy that grew up on Billy Beane, but Mr. Crawford is over 70.
Even more importantly Crawford states he is looking for slow maturing horses that will “exceed expectations”. That is exactly the same strategy that I have been talking about since this blog began. He does state that this strategy is not ideal for finding Derby horses, but is does increase durability. He then tells the story of how long it took Arklow to develop.
There remains a small chance my ideas are not completely crazy.
As I type this Saratoga is running a $16,000 non-winners of two claiming race which includes horses that cost $300,00, $250,000, $105,000, and $90,000. Maybe I should take up bowling.
Buying A Race Horse 