One More Puzzle Piece, Random Thoughts, and a Yearling Model

I was watching the Saratoga broadcast of the first two year old race of the meet, Maggie Wolfendale mentioned that at the Ocala sales the consigners can choose which horses to run early in the morning. She said they choose to run their best horses early, because they think the track is better.

That could be important. Does the track seem faster because they send out the best horses first? It is a synthetic surface, so how much can it change. The placement might mean more than the time.

In that first race, Ironhorse Racing had a $180,000 Distorted Humor that defeated a $500,000 Into Mischief from Racehorse.com. That is a nice win for the Ironhorse guys. He might be on his way to the Hopeful.

Maggie was not that impressed with Momo’s (the race winner) appearance. She said he kind of small.

That ties into a comment from after the second day at Ocala by Dennis O’Neil. O’Neil is Doug brother, and is the bloodstock agent for Paul Reddam. O’Neil said all the horses with fast times “looked like quarter horses”. I know I had exactly the same impression when I went to a Select 2-yr old sale at Palm Meadows about 10 years ago.

O’Neil (really Reddam) then paid $175,000 for a Half Ours, because he said he was “longer” and had a nicer stride. Half Ours is a little known son of Unbridled Song standing in Louisiana. The physical picture can be much more important than the pedigree. This will be an interesting horse to watch.

Terry Finley (founder of West Point) had a nice interview before the third race. He actually said “its all about the owners and the bettors, the rest of us are just at the trough”. That might just an off the cuff remark, but if you stop and think about it a little it is really quite profound.

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Just a random thought, but you really to watch these stakes races with small fields and a big favorite. Often being stakes placed in a graded race might not be as good as a solid allowance race.

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Decorated Invader was a solid winner of the Hall of Fame for West Point. The horse was a $200,000 yearling purchase. Declaration of War has already been shipped off to Japan. What does that mean? Were his horses really not that commercial? I guess Ashford Stud has Air Force Blue, and Mendelssohn next year, to replace Declaration of War.

Of course you can buy next years winner at the West Point website. 5% of the Vancouver colt is still available for about $22,000. That is a healthy price for an untested stallion, but you cannot argue with West Point’s success.

The dam of Decorated Invader was a Stronarch horse that won one race, and never had an Equibase speed figure over 87, but she was never in a claimer. Someone wanted to sell her babies. The dam was by Arch, and did not win until June of her 3 year old season, The second dam won the G1 Santa Anita Oaks.

In many ways this could be a model yearling to buy:

  1. A second tier stallion with a non-precocious pedigree
  2. A stamina dam that did not have an impressive career, but was never a claimer
  3. There is plenty of pedigree and performance in the extended family
  4. An above average price that should indicate a good looking physical individual.

In fact that has just become my yearling model for the September sales..

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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